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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Income Inequality: Empirical Evidence from Asian and African Developing Economies 货币政策对收入不平等的影响——来自亚洲和非洲发展中经济体的经验证据
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0028
Zulfiqar Khan, M. Khan
Abstract Inequality is a challenging issue for all developing countries across the globe. Evaluating the role of monetary policy in mitigating inequality is imperative for researchers and policy makers. The central objective of the present study is to empirically evaluate the impact of monetary policy on income inequality for ten Asian and African developing economies from 1990–2020. The methods of pooled mean group (PMG)/panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), and fully modified least square (FMOLS) are implemented. The empirical results indicate that money supply has negative, and inflation has a positive and significant influence on income inequality. It has also been found that GDP per capita income and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) have a negative impact on inequality. The findings of the present study recommend that money supply, per capita income, and inward FDI should be enhanced, while inflation must be controlled using coordinated fiscal and monetary policies.
不平等对全球所有发展中国家来说都是一个具有挑战性的问题。对研究人员和政策制定者来说,评估货币政策在缓解不平等方面的作用是必不可少的。本研究的中心目标是实证评估1990-2020年间十个亚洲和非洲发展中经济体的货币政策对收入不平等的影响。实现了混合平均群(PMG)/面板自回归分布滞后(ARDL)和完全修正最小二乘(FMOLS)方法。实证结果表明,货币供应量对收入不平等的影响为负,通货膨胀对收入不平等的影响为正且显著。研究还发现,人均国内生产总值和外来直接投资(FDI)对不平等有负向影响。本研究的结果建议,应增加货币供应、人均收入和流入的外国直接投资,同时必须使用协调的财政和货币政策来控制通货膨胀。
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引用次数: 0
The Relationship Between Bank Concentration and Interest Rates 银行集中度与利率的关系
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0023
Tijana Kaličanin, Z. Grubišić, Sandra Kamenković
Abstract The aim of this paper was to analyse the relationship between market concentration and market interest rate. Taking into thought the relationship between the level of concentration within a market and the level of competition, it can be deduced that an increment in concentration results in a decrease in competition. In order to test the above mentioned relationship, the authors used a panel dataset covering the period 2010Q1-2019Q4. The set includes quarterly data of all banks that operated in the Republic of Serbia. First of all, a correlation analysis was applied to determine whether there is a quantitative agreement between interest rates and concentration measures, and also a regression analysis i.e., econometric evaluation of panel regression models. In order to test the hypothesis, a total of 12 regression equations were applied. Results indicate that that the concentration indicators have a statistically significant and negative impact on the overall active interest rate in only two regression models, which is inadequate to support the hypothesis that there exists a systematic influence of concentration in the banking industry on interest rates. As a conclusion, the regression analysis imposes that the variations of the total loan interest rate can be explained to the greatest extent by the systematic and robust influences of the key policy rate of the NBS and the interannual inflation rate for the given quarter, as well as by the robust tendency of a linear decline over time.
摘要本文的目的是分析市场集中度与市场利率之间的关系。考虑到市场集中度与竞争水平之间的关系,可以推断出集中度的增加会导致竞争的减少。为了检验上述关系,作者使用了涵盖2010年第一季度至2019年第四季度的面板数据集。该数据集包括在塞尔维亚共和国经营的所有银行的季度数据。首先,应用相关性分析来确定利率和集中度措施之间是否存在定量一致性,并进行回归分析,即对面板回归模型进行计量经济评价。为了检验假设,共使用了12个回归方程。结果表明,仅在两个回归模型中,集中度指标对整体活跃利率存在显著的负向影响,不足以支持银行业集中度对利率存在系统性影响的假设。综上所述,回归分析表明,总贷款利率的变化在很大程度上可以通过国家统计局关键政策利率和给定季度的年际通胀率的系统和强大影响来解释,以及随着时间的推移线性下降的强大趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Econometric VAR Analysis of the Effect of the Foreign Exchange Reserves on Macroeconomic Variables in Emerging Countries: The Case of BRIC Countries 新兴国家外汇储备对宏观经济变量影响的计量VAR分析——以金砖四国为例
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0026
Borivoje D. Krušković
Abstract This paper analyses the effects of the foreign exchange reserves accumulation on the key nominal and real macroeconomic variables (GDP, employment, prices and exchange rates) in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). VAR model was used to empirically examine the effect of accumulation of foreign exchange reserves on macroeconomic variables. The empirical results in this paper show that after the initial shock of foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate appreciation occurs, which can be explained by the fact that a higher level of foreign exchange reserves gives investors and rating agencies a lower risk of the country, which can consequently lead to appreciation of the foreign exchange rate. In this way, the price reaction would be neutralized. Consequently, the growth of foreign exchange reserves leads to the growth of economic activity measured by GDP growth.
摘要本文分析了外汇储备积累对金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国)主要名义和实际宏观经济变量(GDP、就业、价格和汇率)的影响。运用VAR模型实证检验外汇储备积累对宏观经济变量的影响。本文的实证结果表明,在外汇储备的初始冲击之后,汇率会出现升值,这可以解释为较高的外汇储备水平使投资者和评级机构对该国的风险降低,从而导致汇率升值。通过这种方式,价格反应将被中和。因此,外汇储备的增长导致以GDP增长衡量的经济活动的增长。
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引用次数: 0
Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan African Countries Using the Tool of Monetary Policy Effectiveness 利用货币政策有效性工具实现撒哈拉以南非洲国家的可持续经济增长
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0027
A. Isibor, A. Omankhanlen, B. Ehikioya, G. Osuma, A. Oladipo, Adedoyin Bunmi-Alo, Kikiyanu Ajalaadebowale
Abstract The issue of achieving and sustaining a nation’s economic growth is an issue that is of concern to many nations of the world, especially the sub-Saharan African (SSA) nations. This was in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8 of Economic Growth. This study, therefore, examines how monetary policy tools can help the SSA governments achieve the SDG 8 goal and also sustain it. Relevant secondary data on sustained economic growth (GDPPC) (dependent variable) and interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, and inflation rate (independent variable) were gathered from the annual report of the Central Banks of the 48 SSA nations. The panel data year covers the period from 2016 to 2022. The unit root test confirms the variables to have a level integration order. The Hausman test suggests the use of fixed effect regression. The fixed effect regression shows that for the 48 SSA nations, interest rate, inflation rate, and money supply were positively significant in impacting GDPPC while exchange rate was negatively significant in impacting GDPPC. The study, therefore, recommends that import promotion, for example, should be avoided because it raises the exchange rate and lowers the value of currencies of the SSA nations.
实现和维持一个国家的经济增长是世界上许多国家,特别是撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家关注的问题。这符合联合国关于经济增长的可持续发展目标(SDG) 8。因此,本研究探讨了货币政策工具如何帮助SSA政府实现可持续发展目标8并维持这一目标。相关的经济持续增长(gdp ppc)(因变量)和利率、汇率、货币供应量、通货膨胀率(自变量)等二手数据是根据48个SSA国家中央银行的年度报告收集的。面板数据年份涵盖2016年至2022年。单位根检验确认变量具有水平积分顺序。Hausman检验建议使用固定效应回归。固定效应回归表明,对于48个SSA国家,利率、通货膨胀率和货币供应量对GDPPC的影响为正显著,而汇率对GDPPC的影响为负显著。因此,该研究建议,应避免进口促进,因为它会提高汇率,降低SSA国家的货币价值。
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引用次数: 0
The New Era of Capital Regulation Complexity 资本监管复杂性的新时代
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0030
Lukáš Pfeifer
Abstract The paper describes the mechanism of overlapping leverage ratio requirement and macroprudential capital buffers and associated implications for the resilience of the banking sector. It examines to what extent capital buffers can be usable to absorb losses in the case of the Czech banking sector and what impact this may have on the lending capacity of the real economy. The non-usability portion of capital buffers in the Czech banking sector amounts to CZK 27 billion (i.e. 24% of the combined capital buffer). The lending potential of the capital buffer decreases by CZK 630 billion to CZK 1.6 trillion due to overlaps under otherwise equal conditions. The results indicate that the leverage ratio requirement may prevent the capital buffers from being fully effective and can reduce created macroprudential space.
摘要本文描述了杠杆率要求和宏观审慎资本缓冲的重叠机制,以及对银行业弹性的相关影响。它考察了捷克银行业在多大程度上可以利用资本缓冲来吸收损失,以及这可能对实体经济的贷款能力产生什么影响。捷克银行业资本缓冲的不可用部分总计270亿捷克克朗(即总资本缓冲的24%)。由于在其他同等条件下的重叠,资本缓冲的贷款潜力减少了6300亿捷克克朗,降至1.6万亿捷克克朗。结果表明,杠杆率要求可能会阻碍资本缓冲的充分有效,并会减少所创造的宏观审慎空间。
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引用次数: 0
Raising Interest Rates for Improving Income 提高利率提高收入
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0031
Guillermo Peña
Abstract This paper illustrates a case where an increase of the interest rates improves the economic activity and reduces income inequality. This theoretical exercise deals with a simple model of disequilibrium with accountant identities of budget constraints. In addition, and following previous models, the effect of the COVID-19 shock is considered, by reflecting asymmetric repercussions that increase income inequality. A simple empirical exercise confirms some of the previous results. The proposed explanation is that, for the euro area, this shock has affected more middle-income households such as the retailers harmed by the compulsory lockdown who have increased their debts.
摘要本文举例说明了一个案例,即提高利率可以改善经济活动,减少收入不平等。这一理论练习涉及一个具有预算约束会计身份的简单非均衡模型。此外,根据之前的模型,通过反映加剧收入不平等的不对称影响,考虑了新冠肺炎冲击的影响。一个简单的经验练习证实了之前的一些结果。拟议的解释是,对欧元区来说,这一冲击影响了更多的中等收入家庭,比如受强制封锁影响的零售商,他们增加了债务。
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引用次数: 0
Reputation Lasts Longer Than Life: How can Central Banks Quantify their Reputational Risk? 声誉比生命更长久:央行如何量化其声誉风险?
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0029
P. Kafle
Abstract It takes multiple decades of commitment and credibility to create repute but only a few seconds to tarnish it, as the instances of misinformation, disinformation and malinformation galore. In light of this, Central banks, as delicate and sensitive public institutions, are significantly vulnerable to such reputation risk due to their mandate for policy decisions and implementation. Thus, this study aims to formulate a barometer that quantifies the reputation score of central banks. The Central Bank Reputation (CBR) score is derived based on the respondents’ responses to a questionnaire that includes twelve attributes and twenty-eight indicators, which is administered among the eight set of audiences. The reputation score ranges from −100 to +100, that indicates the reputation of the Central Bank at a point of time. The deviation in reputation score between two points of time thus measures the reputational risk. However, the study suggests applying other qualitative analysis tools in complement with this quantitative barometer, to come up with the robust assessment.
摘要创造声誉需要几十年的承诺和信誉,但玷污声誉只需要几秒钟,因为错误信息、虚假信息和虚假信息的例子比比皆是。有鉴于此,中央银行作为敏感敏感的公共机构,由于其政策决策和执行的授权,极易受到此类声誉风险的影响。因此,本研究旨在制定一个衡量央行声誉得分的晴雨表。中央银行声誉(CBR)分数是根据受访者对问卷的回答得出的,该问卷包括12个属性和28个指标,在8组受众中进行管理。信誉评分范围从−100到+100,表示中央银行在某个时间点的信誉。因此,声誉得分在两个时间点之间的偏差可以衡量声誉风险。然而,该研究建议应用其他定性分析工具来补充这一定量晴雨表,以得出稳健的评估结果。
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引用次数: 0
Central Bank Independence: The Case of North African Central Banks 中央银行独立性:北非中央银行的案例
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0025
Amina Haoudi, Ali Bennagem Touati
Abstract The independence of Central Banks is still considered to be a credibility factor in ensuring price stability. Thus, many central banks in transition countries have undergone a change in their statutes in order to achieve greater independence from governments. In this vein, within a decade, North African Central Banks have put in place a new institutional framework for their monetary policy. In this article, we will attempt to assess and measure the legal (de jure) and real (de facto) independence of these Central Banks (Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt).
中央银行的独立性仍然被认为是确保价格稳定的可信度因素。因此,转型国家的许多中央银行已经改变了它们的章程,以便在更大程度上独立于政府。本着这种精神,在十年内,北非各国央行已经为其货币政策建立了一个新的制度框架。在本文中,我们将尝试评估和衡量这些中央银行(摩洛哥,阿尔及利亚,利比亚,突尼斯,埃及)的法律(法律上)和实际(事实上)独立性。
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引用次数: 0
Unusual Changes in the U.S. Treasury Security Market During the Fourth Round of Quantitative Easing 第四轮量化宽松期间美国国债市场的异常变化
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0022
Kyle D. Allen, Scott E. Hein
Abstract The Covid-19 Pandemic and policy response rattled the US Treasury markets. Conventional US Treasuries, inflation adjusted US Treasuries, and the relationship between the two developed in ways such that ignoring changes in real interest rates yielded distorted inflation expectations estimates. Since the beginning of the pandemic, monetary policy kept nominal rates low and close to zero, but positive. Real rates, on the other hand, became increasingly negative. The relationship between the two market rates became negatively correlated, and distorted because of the fourth round of quantitative easing, along with the Fed preventing nominal yields from turning negative. Federal Reserve actions during the Covid-19 pandemic drove a larger wedge between nominal interest rates and real interest rates in the inflation adjusted market.
新冠肺炎疫情和政策应对令美国国债市场动荡不安。传统的美国国债,通胀调整后的美国国债,两者之间的关系以这样的方式发展:忽略实际利率的变化,会产生扭曲的通胀预期估计。自大流行开始以来,货币政策使名义利率保持在低水平,接近于零,但为正。另一方面,实际利率变得越来越负。由于第四轮量化宽松政策以及美联储防止名义收益率变为负值,这两种市场利率之间的关系变得负相关,并被扭曲。美联储在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间的行动,在经通胀调整后的市场上,拉大了名义利率和实际利率之间的差距。
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引用次数: 0
Time Scales Based Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 Related Economic Support on the Stock Markets in Emerging Markets 新冠肺炎相关经济支持对新兴市场股票市场影响的时间尺度分析
IF 1.4 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.2478/jcbtp-2023-0024
M. Kamışlı, Mustafa Özer, Özlem Sayilir, Patrice Racine Diallo
Abstract The main purpose of this study is to investigate the causal response of the stock market returns to COVID-19 related economic support in 19 emerging countries by using the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) and Fourier Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test (FTYCT). With the help of MODWT, we identify the instant, short-term, mid-term and long-term reactions of stock market returns and COVID-19 related economic support to each other. Implementing FTYCT, we determine the existence of the causal relationships running from COVID-19 related economic support to stock returns. We obtain two major results. First, the COVID-19 related economic support have significant effects on stock market returns in the short-, medium-, and long-term, except in China. Second, the results of the causality tests vary across countries based on the different time scales. Some emerging markets show an immediate reaction to the Economic Support, while most stock market reactions occur over the medium- and long-term. Since economic support will created unintended effects on stock market returns, the way that these support policies are implemented should be reconsidered. Also, their effectiveness should be evaluated carefully.
摘要本研究的主要目的是利用最大重叠离散小波变换(MODWT)和傅立叶Toda-Yamamoto因果检验(FTYCT)研究19个新兴国家股票市场收益对COVID-19相关经济支持的因果响应。借助MODWT,我们识别了股市收益与COVID-19相关经济支持之间的即时、短期、中期和长期反应。通过FTYCT,我们确定了从COVID-19相关经济支持到股票回报的因果关系的存在性。我们得到两个主要结果。第一,除中国外,新冠肺炎相关经济支持对股市短期、中期和长期回报均有显著影响。其次,因果关系检验的结果因不同的时间尺度而在各国有所不同。一些新兴市场对经济支持表现出即时反应,而大多数股市的反应发生在中期和长期。由于经济支持将对股市回报产生意想不到的影响,这些支持政策的实施方式应该重新考虑。此外,应该仔细评估它们的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice
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