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Indonesian Stock Price Prediction using Deep Learning during COVID-19 Financial Crisis 基于深度学习的新冠肺炎金融危机印尼股价预测
Pub Date : 2022-05-06 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v3i2.273
Dian Angga Prasetyo, R. Rokhim
This research paper aims to use the deep learning model Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) for the stock prediction model under the financial crisis of COVID-19. The financial impact of the COVID-19 has brought many of the world's indexes down. The impact of the financial crisis is even riskier for an emerging country such as Indonesia where foreign investors tend to take out their investments in emerging countries in financial crisis events. The application of deep learning in financial time series applications such as stock price prediction has been researched extensively. This study used the (Bidirectional LSTM) BiLSTM model which is a variation of the LSTM model to predict stock closing price. The stock prediction is applied to a selected company from the Indonesian stock market using historical prices. The model is then evaluated using metrics Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE). A graphical comparison between the actual price and predicted price of the stock is charted to study the stock price movement. To study the impact during COVID-19 on the stock prices, an intervention analysis is conducted along with the Wilcoxon model. The stock price prediction model can forecast the price of stocks before and during the financial crisis with minimal error. The intervention analysis result showed that health sectors have a positive effect while other sectors such as transportation, finance, information technology, and entertainment have a negative effect during the financial crisis of COVID-19. Being able to analyze and study the stock price movement of stocks is beneficial to investors in understanding the impact of the financial crisis on some industries and the behavior of certain stocks or industries under the circumstances which can lead to alternate investment strategies and decision making.
本文旨在将深度学习模型长短期记忆(LSTM)用于新冠肺炎金融危机下的股票预测模型。2019冠状病毒病的金融影响导致全球许多指数下跌。对于印尼这样的新兴国家来说,金融危机的影响更大,外国投资者往往会在金融危机事件中撤出在新兴国家的投资。深度学习在股票价格预测等金融时间序列应用中的应用已经得到了广泛的研究。本文采用LSTM模型的一种变体(Bidirectional LSTM) BiLSTM模型来预测股票收盘价。使用历史价格将股票预测应用于从印度尼西亚股票市场中选择的公司。然后使用平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和对称平均绝对百分比误差(SMAPE)对模型进行评估。股票的实际价格和预测价格之间的图形比较用图表来研究股票价格的变动。为了研究COVID-19期间对股票价格的影响,采用Wilcoxon模型进行干预分析。该股票价格预测模型能够以最小的误差预测金融危机前和危机期间的股票价格。干预分析结果显示,在新冠肺炎金融危机期间,卫生部门的影响是积极的,而交通、金融、信息技术和娱乐等其他部门的影响是消极的。能够分析和研究股票的股价走势有利于投资者了解金融危机对某些行业的影响以及某些股票或行业在可能导致替代投资策略和决策的情况下的行为。
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引用次数: 0
Illegal Levies as a Negative Element Contributing to The Decrease of The Tourism Potential on Madura 非法征税是马都拉旅游潜力下降的负面因素
Pub Date : 2022-02-07 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v3i1.172
Tolib Effendi, Rusmilawati Windari
As revealed by the World Economic Forum, there is a correlation between corruption and tourism: the higher the level of corruption of a state, as reflected in the Corruption Perceptions Index of Transparency International, the lower the number of foreign tourists visiting the state. As such, a very strong correlation exists between the community development index, tourism, and the community’s legal awareness on the journey to the eradication of illegal fees. Illegal fees have to date been regarded as something normal in society. Illegal fees have become a regular in every sector, which must be ceased, and this holds true to the tourism sector as well. It is thus become essential to study the correlation between illegal fees in the tourism sector and the undermined tourism potential on Madura.Illegal fees have become part of the systems applied in Indonesia, including in the tourism sector. One of the reasons behind visitors’ disinterest in visiting a tourist attraction is the illegal fees someone imposes there, whether they be in the form of entrance fees or in the form of parking fees. The absence of a price standard allows some irresponsible persons to collect such fees as entrance and parking fees at tourist attractions variably according to the situation that arises in a given time.This paper uses a socio-legal research method to investigate directly into the relationship between illegal fees in the tourism sector and the undermined tourism potential on Madura. Primary data, collected through interviews, survey, and observation, were analyzed descriptively.
正如世界经济论坛所揭示的那样,腐败与旅游业之间存在相关性:正如透明国际的腐败感知指数所反映的那样,一个国家的腐败程度越高,访问这个国家的外国游客数量就越少。因此,在根除非法收费的过程中,社区发展指数、旅游业和社区法律意识之间存在很强的相关性。迄今为止,非法收费在社会上一直被视为正常现象。非法收费已成为每个部门的常态,必须制止,旅游业也是如此。因此,研究旅游部门的非法收费与马杜拉岛被破坏的旅游潜力之间的关系变得至关重要。非法收费已成为印度尼西亚实行的制度的一部分,包括在旅游部门。游客对参观旅游景点不感兴趣的原因之一是有人在那里收取非法费用,无论是入场费还是停车费。由于没有价格标准,一些不负责任的人就可以根据特定时间内出现的情况,不同程度地收取旅游景点的入场费和停车费等费用。本文采用社会法学研究方法,直接探讨了旅游部门非法收费与马杜拉旅游潜力受损之间的关系。通过访谈、调查和观察收集的原始数据进行描述性分析。
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引用次数: 2
The Possible Regulation Model To Optimize The Automatic Exchange Of Information (Aeoi) In Indonesia Through Directorate General Of Taxation, Ministry Of Finance And Financial Services Authority 通过税务总局、财政部和金融服务管理局优化印度尼西亚自动信息交换(Aeoi)的可能监管模式
Pub Date : 2022-02-06 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v3i1.189
Tivana Arbiani Candini, P. P. R. Marditia, Kelly Kelly Kwannaka, Jeanny Liany
Tax Treaty is a bilateral(two-party) agreement made by two or more than two countries to resolve some issues involving double taxation, transfer pricing, and treaty shopping. Several governments and organizations use model treaties generally as starting points, such as OECD Model Convention and US Model Convention. As a member of G20, Indonesia has participated in The Automatic Exchange of Information (AEoI) provides for the automatic exchange of predefined set of financial accounts information between tax authorities, based on The Common Reporting Standard (CRS), as also mentioned in Tax Information Exchange Agreement (TIEA) implemented in 2018. In order to implement AEoI the Indonesian regulator needs to review the Banking Law and the Tax Provisions and Procedures,  There is an urgent need to regulate a regulation as a standard that will be used in CSR, support the tax reform and to enhance the capacity and the authority of Directorate General of Taxation, Ministry of Finance and Financial Services Authority, while still considering the protection for the Bank Secrecy. This research will formulate a model regulation that can facilitate the implementation of the AEoI, by carrying out a study in 3 countries, which is Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore
税收协定是两个或两个以上国家为解决双重征税、转移定价和协定购物等问题而达成的双边(两方)协议。一些政府和组织通常使用示范条约作为起点,如经合组织示范公约和美国示范公约。作为二十国集团(G20)成员,印度尼西亚参与了《税务信息交换协定》(AEoI),该协定规定税务机关之间根据共同报告标准(CRS)自动交换一套预定义的财务账户信息,该协定也在2018年实施的《税务信息交换协定》(TIEA)中提到。为了实施AEoI,印尼监管机构需要审查银行法和税收规定和程序,迫切需要制定一项法规,作为企业社会责任中使用的标准,支持税收改革,提高税务总局、财政部和金融服务管理局的能力和权威,同时仍考虑对银行保密的保护。本研究将通过在印度尼西亚、马来西亚和新加坡这三个国家进行研究,制定一个可以促进AEoI实施的示范法规
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引用次数: 1
Scandinavian Legal Realism in Two Criminal Convictions of The Same Thing 同一事物的两种刑事定罪中的斯堪的纳维亚法律现实主义
Pub Date : 2022-02-05 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v3i1.188
Siti Munawaroh, S. Mulyati, S. Suhendri
Human life is regulated and will never be separated from the provisions of binding regulations. Binding rules or norms in human life have the purpose of creating order, justice, and public welfare. The paradigm of legal positivism has always relied on the logic and validation of the ruler which makes people think that the ruler is the only law. This is strongly criticized by legal realists. The interesting thing about legal realism is the view that law must depart from the study of facts. American legal realism states that a judge decides something based on his personal preferences, and then makes a legal analysis to justify the expected outcome. This is different from legal realism in Scandinavia, which is based on logical positivism that developed in the modern era. Legal realism in Scandinavia intends to make legal science more scientific. Criticisms of legal realism include: legal realism presents the law only as a tool for resolving disputes on a case by case basis, there is no need for legal certainty because the approach is very casuistic so that judge’s understanding of cases can vary widely. Using legal studies approach, be expected that it can provide an overview of the problems that occur related to Scandinavian Legal Realism in the adultery case of SS with minors which is contrary to The Law of Number 35 of 2014 concerning Child Protection in conjunction with Article 65 Paragraph 1 of the Criminal Code. The judge's authority over the case is to give a verdict related to the SS case in accordance with positive law, the facts that actually happened, and the truth of the case that has been observed by the people involved and legal experts with the aim of maintaining order and protecting the community so that they always do the right thing.
人的生活是有规则的,永远不会脱离有约束力的规则的规定。人类生活中具有约束力的规则或规范具有创造秩序、正义和公共福利的目的。法律实证主义的范式一直依赖于统治者的逻辑和有效性,使人们认为统治者是唯一的法律。这受到法律现实主义者的强烈批评。法律现实主义的有趣之处在于,它认为法律必须脱离对事实的研究。美国法律现实主义认为,法官根据自己的个人喜好做出决定,然后进行法律分析以证明预期结果的合理性。这与斯堪的纳维亚的法律现实主义不同,后者以近代发展起来的逻辑实证主义为基础。斯堪的纳维亚的法律现实主义旨在使法学更加科学化。对法律现实主义的批评包括:法律现实主义只把法律作为一种逐个案例解决纠纷的工具,不需要法律确定性,因为这种方法是非常诡辩的,因此法官对案件的理解可能相差很大。使用法律研究方法,可以对SS与未成年人通奸案件中与斯堪的纳维亚法律现实主义相关的问题进行概述,这违反了2014年第35号关于儿童保护的法律以及《刑法》第65条第1款。法官对案件的权力是根据成文法、实际发生的事实,以及当事人和法律专家观察到的案件真相,作出与党卫队案件有关的判决,目的是维护秩序,保护社会,使他们永远做正确的事。
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引用次数: 0
Misogyy As Violence In Gender Perspective 厌女症是性别视角下的暴力
Pub Date : 2022-02-05 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v3i1.207
Ni Nyoman Juwita Arsawati, Dewi Bunga
Misogyny is the behavior of someone hating women, both from men and fellow women. This behavior often places and views women as the cause of blame in a problem, even for something that is not really a problem. Misogyny causes a person tends to hate, look down on, blame, label and discriminate against women. This behavior is often associated with male privilege, patriarchal customs, and gender discrimination. In practice, this behavior will place men in a superior position, while women in an inferior position. In certain cases, misogynism can even increase the risk of physical, psychological and sexual harassment of women. There are two problems discussed in this study: 1) misogyny in the perspective of gender-based violence and 2) the relationship between misogyny and violence against women. This research is normative juridical research supported by empirical data on gender-based violence against women. Primary and secondary legal materials were collected through literature study. The research approach used is the statutory regulation, the legal concept, and the legal argumentation approach. Analysis of the collected data was carried out qualitatively.
厌女症(Misogyny)是指某人厌恶女性的行为,包括男性和女性同胞。这种行为经常把女性视为问题的罪魁祸首,即使是在一些根本不是问题的事情上。厌女症导致一个人倾向于憎恨、看不起、责怪、贴上标签和歧视女性。这种行为通常与男性特权、父权习俗和性别歧视有关。在实践中,这种行为会使男性处于优越地位,而女性处于劣势地位。在某些情况下,厌女症甚至会增加妇女遭受身体、心理和性骚扰的风险。本研究主要讨论两个问题:1)性别暴力视角下的厌女症;2)厌女症与女性暴力的关系。这项研究是规范性的司法研究,得到了基于性别的暴力侵害妇女行为的经验数据的支持。通过文献研究收集了第一手和第二手的法律资料。本文采用的研究方法是法定规则法、法律概念法和法律论证法。对收集到的数据进行定性分析。
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引用次数: 1
Human Rights Violation in the Manifestation of Indonesia's Inefficacious Covid-19 Policies Towards the Lower Socio-Economic Class 印尼针对社会经济下层的新冠肺炎政策无效表现出的侵犯人权行为
Pub Date : 2022-02-04 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v3i1.190
Dellvin Sergio
Indonesia’s surging number of Covid-19 positive cases may be happening due to its own manifestation through implementing ineffective laws which then led to the resurgence of the policy crisis. Indonesia is deemed to have failed in handling the overwhelming pandemic. The imbalance of emergency fund allocation between the recovery of the economy and health sector also conveys Indonesia’s top priority. Policies made by the state also prove its failure in accommodating vulnerable people especially those who live in poverty. The application of the top-down policy affects those with financial insecurity then also burdened by extraordinary crimes such as corruption of social assistance mid pandemic. To implement an adequate policy which can respect, protect, fulfill, it is important to address poverty affected by covid policies through the lens of human rights, whether it is violated or fulfilled. The use of recent studies, official data, laws, policies, and human rights approaches will help indicate how people living in poverty are still marginalized of their rights to adequate standards of living pre and midst pandemic. Moving forward, those who live in poverty must live free from discrimination and stereotypes such as lazy, unlucky, undeserving, etc. which contributes to the exclusion and exploitation of this vulnerable group. This research will seek poverty as a human rights issue, it will show how this vulnerable group has been the victim of injustice and demand accountability. Through proper analysis, these findings will also set out appropriate and applicable solutions for the well-being of this group mid and post pandemic.  
印度尼西亚新冠肺炎阳性病例激增可能是由于执行无效的法律而导致政策危机死灰复燃的自身表现。印尼被认为未能应对这场势不可挡的大流行病。经济复苏与卫生部门之间应急基金分配的不平衡也体现了印度尼西亚的最高优先事项。国家制定的政策也证明了它在照顾弱势群体方面的失败,尤其是那些生活在贫困中的人。自上而下政策的应用影响到那些经济不安全的人,然后也受到诸如流行病期间社会援助腐败等特殊犯罪的负担。为了实施一项能够尊重、保护和实现的适当政策,必须从人权的角度解决受covid政策影响的贫困问题,无论人权是受到侵犯还是实现。利用最近的研究、官方数据、法律、政策和人权办法将有助于表明,生活在贫困中的人在大流行病之前和期间如何仍然被边缘化,无法享有适足生活水准的权利。展望未来,那些生活在贫困中的人必须摆脱诸如懒惰、不幸、不配等歧视和陈规定型观念,这些观念助长了对这一弱势群体的排斥和剥削。这项研究将把贫困视为一个人权问题,它将展示这个弱势群体如何成为不公正的受害者,并要求问责。通过适当的分析,这些发现还将为这一群体在大流行中期和后期的福祉制定适当和适用的解决办法。
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引用次数: 2
Crypto Minning : Indonesia Carbon Tax Challenges and Safeguarding International Commitment on Human Security 加密采矿:印度尼西亚碳税挑战和维护人类安全的国际承诺
Pub Date : 2022-02-04 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v3i1.206
I. Putranti
The need for financial transactions in the virtual world that continues to grow demands an increase in the speed, quality, and quantity of various innovations and discoveries in the field of financial technology known as cryptocurrency. This discovery encourages various developments of the virtual world economy which is increasingly diverse and growing according to the needs and interests of existing economic actors. Cryptocurrencies are currently only considered as digital assets that can be traded so they are not recognized as a means of payment. However, cryptocurrency trading in Indonesia is a fast-growing field, so its economic value continues to rise rapidly. This encourages the emergence of crypto mining businesses that tend to use large amounts of electricity. The issue of carbon footprint in cryto mining has in several ways been the cause of the prohibition of this activity. In Indonesia, this activity is still not banned, in 2022 a carbon tax will be applied where every kilogram of carbon equivalent emissions that exceed a certain cap will be subjected to Rp-30 (0.21 cent dollar) tax. So the paper tries to analyze the extent to which this carbon tax will affect crypto mining in Indonesia and how the mitigation of crypto mining's carbon footprint can be managed through proper regulation without disturbing the crypto economic sector that is blooming in Indonesia.
虚拟世界中对金融交易的需求持续增长,要求在金融技术领域(称为加密货币)中提高各种创新和发现的速度、质量和数量。这一发现鼓励了虚拟世界经济的各种发展,根据现有经济参与者的需求和利益,虚拟世界经济日益多样化和增长。加密货币目前只被认为是可以交易的数字资产,因此它们不被认为是一种支付手段。然而,印度尼西亚的加密货币交易是一个快速增长的领域,因此其经济价值持续快速上升。这鼓励了加密货币挖矿业务的出现,这些业务往往使用大量电力。加密采矿中的碳足迹问题在几个方面是禁止这种活动的原因。在印度尼西亚,这种活动仍然没有被禁止,2022年将征收碳税,每公斤超过一定上限的碳当量排放量将被征收Rp-30(0.21美分)税。因此,本文试图分析这种碳税将在多大程度上影响印度尼西亚的加密货币挖矿,以及如何通过适当的监管来减轻加密货币挖矿的碳足迹,而不会干扰印度尼西亚正在蓬勃发展的加密经济部门。
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引用次数: 4
Evaluation of Senior High School History’s Program Curriculum Implementation of Curriculum 2013 in the Province of DKI Jakarta 雅加达DKI省2013年课程实施的高中历史专业课程评价
Pub Date : 2021-11-08 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v2i4.178
Sumardiansyah Perdana Kusuma, D. N. Musnir, Zulfiati Syahrial
The purpose in this study to evaluate of Senior High School (SMA) Historys Program Curriculum Implementation in Jakarta Province. This study used the CIPPO program evaluation model includes: (1) Context, consisting of the fundamental framework, curriculum standards, and curriculum goals; (2), Input, consisting of elements of curriculum developers, principal, teacher, and student; (3) Process, consisting of planning, learning, and assessments; (4) Product, and the effect of history (5) Outcomes, consisting of history.This research is qualitative with documentation studies, interviews, and observations, which are then enriched with a quantitative data in the form of tests. Data analysis techniques include data collection, data condensation, data presentation, and conclusions. The population studied were SMAN 70, SMAN 48, SMAN 77, and SMAN 18 which implemented Curriculum 2013 and opened a class Science Social Knowledge (IPS) where the subjects of History Indonesia and History Interest in the same academic Interest in Students. The results of the study show that there is a systemic bias, starting from stakeholder understanding, curriculum documents, processes by teachers, learning outcomes, to learning outcomes in the implementation of the High School History Curriculum in the 2013 Curriculum in DKI Jakarta Province.
本研究的目的是评估雅加达省高中历史课程的实施情况。本研究采用的CIPPO课程评价模型包括:(1)情境,包括基本框架、课程标准和课程目标;(2)输入,包括课程开发人员、校长、教师和学生等要素;(3)过程,包括计划、学习和评估;(4)产品,以及历史的影响(5)结果,由历史组成。本研究通过文献研究、访谈和观察进行定性研究,然后以测试形式丰富定量数据。数据分析技术包括数据收集、数据浓缩、数据表示和结论。研究人群为sman70、sman48、sman77和sman18,他们实施了2013年课程,并开设了科学社会知识(IPS)课程,其中印度尼西亚历史和历史兴趣的科目与学生的学术兴趣相同。研究结果表明,从利益相关者理解、课程文件、教师过程、学习成果到2013年DKI雅加达省高中历史课程实施中的学习成果,存在系统性偏差。
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引用次数: 0
Investigating the Income Inequality in Indonesia: An Application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach 研究印尼的收入不平等:自回归分布滞后方法的应用
Pub Date : 2021-11-08 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v2i4.162
Zulfa Nazli, A. Jamal, M. Nasir
This study investigates the effect of economic growth, urban population, unemployment, and human capital on income inequality in Indonesia. Annual data collected from World Development Indicator (WDI) is used from 1984 to 2019. The analytical method of this research is Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to examine the short and long-term relationships. The results show that economic growth positively and significantly affects income inequality in the short and long term. The urban population variable has a significant negative effect in the short term but not in the long term. The unemployment variable has a significant positive effect in the long run. Finally, human capital negatively affects the short term while not in the long term. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the government stabilize inequality by increasing progressive taxes, creating jobs, providing soft skills training beyond formal education, and socializing the concept of commuter work.
本研究考察了印尼经济增长、城市人口、失业和人力资本对收入不平等的影响。从1984年到2019年,使用世界发展指标(WDI)收集的年度数据。本研究的分析方法是自回归分布滞后(ARDL)来检验短期和长期的关系。研究结果表明,经济增长在短期和长期内对收入不平等都有显著的正向影响。城市人口变量在短期内具有显著的负向影响,但在长期内不具有显著的负向影响。长期来看,失业变量具有显著的正效应。最后,人力资本在短期内产生负面影响,但在长期内不会产生负面影响。基于这些发现,建议政府通过增加累进税、创造就业机会、提供正规教育之外的软技能培训以及将通勤工作的概念社会化来稳定不平等。
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引用次数: 4
Comparison of Performance from Green Bonds and Conventional Bonds Traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 印尼证券交易所绿色债券与传统债券的绩效比较
Pub Date : 2021-11-08 DOI: 10.46336/ijbesd.v2i4.169
Wiliya Wiliya, D. Susanti, S. Sukono
Bonds are types of securities in the form of a debt acknowledgment letter for loan money from the public in a certain form, but with a minimum tenor of three years and promise of interest rewards in which the amount and payment have been determined in advance. Looking at the current global problems regarding degradation of environmental equality and climate change, bonds were developed where the proceeds of issuance were exclusively applied to finance environmentally friendly projects, is green bonds. However, the issuance of green bonds in Indonesia is slight. This research aims to find out the comparison of individual performance of green bonds and conventional bonds traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The method used to measure performance is Sharpe Ratio. The result indicates that performance of green bond worse than conventional bond. This research can be used as a consideration for investor in making investment based on performance.
债券是以一定形式向国民贷款的债务确认书形式存在的证券,其期限最低为3年,并事先确定金额和支付方式,并有利息回报的承诺。考虑到当前全球环境平等恶化和气候变化等问题,债券的发行收益专门用于资助环境友好型项目,即绿色债券。然而,印尼的绿色债券发行规模很小。本研究旨在找出在印尼证券交易所交易的绿色债券和传统债券的个人绩效比较。用来衡量业绩的方法是夏普比率。结果表明,绿色债券的绩效较传统债券差。本研究可作为投资者基于业绩进行投资的参考。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Business, Economics, and Social Development
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