Pub Date : 2022-01-21DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-07-2021-0030
Abdulazeez Y.H. Saif-Alyousfi
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 and the stringency of the government policy response on stock market returns globally and at the regional level.
Design/methodology/approach
Pooled-ordinary least squares (OLS) and panel data techniques are used to analyse the daily data set across 88 countries in the Americas, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa for the period of 1 January 2020 to 10 May 2021.
Findings
Using pooled-OLS and panel data techniques, the analyses show that both the daily growth in confirmed cases and deaths caused by COVID-19 have significant negative effects on stock returns across all markets. The effects are non-linear and U-shaped. Stock markets react more to the growth of confirmed cases than to the growth in the number of confirmed deaths. The results, however, vary across regions. More specifically, this study finds that the negative effect of confirmed cases is stronger in the Americas and the Middle East, followed by Europe. The negative direct effect of deaths caused by COVID-19 is stronger in the European region, followed by the Middle East, in relation to the rest of the world. The stock market returns in the African region are not, however, statistically significant. The researcher finds evidence that stringent policy responses lead to a significant increase in the stock market returns, both globally and across regions.
Practical implications
The results suggest that the integrity of the government and its interventions complemented by a stable and reliable monetary policy are crucial in providing confidence to firms and households in uncertain times.
Originality/value
COVID-19 has a significant impact on national economies and stock markets, triggering various governments’ interventions across all geographic regions. The pandemic has significantly affected all aspects of life, especially the stock markets. However, their empirical impact on stock returns is still unclear. This paper is the first of its kind to fill this gap by providing an in-depth quantitative analysis of the impact of both COVID-19 and stringency of the governmental policy responses on stock market returns globally and at the regional level. It is also the first to use an advanced analytical framework in analysing the effects of daily growth in both total and newly confirmed cases, and the daily growth in both total and new deaths caused by COVID-19 on them. The dynamic nature of the data on COVID-19 is taken into account. The non-linearity of the effects is also considered.
{"title":"The impact of COVID-19 and the stringency of government policy responses on stock market returns worldwide","authors":"Abdulazeez Y.H. Saif-Alyousfi","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-07-2021-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-07-2021-0030","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>This paper aims to investigate the impact of COVID-19 and the stringency of the government policy response on stock market returns globally and at the regional level.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>Pooled-ordinary least squares (OLS) and panel data techniques are used to analyse the daily data set across 88 countries in the Americas, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa for the period of 1 January 2020 to 10 May 2021.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>Using pooled-OLS and panel data techniques, the analyses show that both the daily growth in confirmed cases and deaths caused by COVID-19 have significant negative effects on stock returns across all markets. The effects are non-linear and U-shaped. Stock markets react more to the growth of confirmed cases than to the growth in the number of confirmed deaths. The results, however, vary across regions. More specifically, this study finds that the negative effect of confirmed cases is stronger in the Americas and the Middle East, followed by Europe. The negative direct effect of deaths caused by COVID-19 is stronger in the European region, followed by the Middle East, in relation to the rest of the world. The stock market returns in the African region are not, however, statistically significant. The researcher finds evidence that stringent policy responses lead to a significant increase in the stock market returns, both globally and across regions.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Practical implications</h3>\u0000<p>The results suggest that the integrity of the government and its interventions complemented by a stable and reliable monetary policy are crucial in providing confidence to firms and households in uncertain times.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>COVID-19 has a significant impact on national economies and stock markets, triggering various governments’ interventions across all geographic regions. The pandemic has significantly affected all aspects of life, especially the stock markets. However, their empirical impact on stock returns is still unclear. This paper is the first of its kind to fill this gap by providing an in-depth quantitative analysis of the impact of both COVID-19 and stringency of the governmental policy responses on stock market returns globally and at the regional level. It is also the first to use an advanced analytical framework in analysing the effects of daily growth in both total and newly confirmed cases, and the daily growth in both total and new deaths caused by COVID-19 on them. The dynamic nature of the data on COVID-19 is taken into account. The non-linearity of the effects is also considered.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138542469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-03DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-08-2021-0042
Eman Elish
Purpose The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of the gender gap on the ecological footprint (EFP) corresponding to its different quantiles. Design/methodology/approach Quantile panel regression for 24 countries from the period 2006 to 2017 will be used, for the gender gap and other determinants of EFP. Findings Each factor affecting EFP differs in its impact depending on the level of EFP quantile it corresponds to. Gender gap was found to be increasing EFP for the higher quantiles and decreasing EFP for the lower quantiles. Research limitations/implications Environmental institutions should be considering the role of gender equality as a factor affecting the environment. Socioeconomic factors sometimes hamper the role of the female gender in preserving the environment. There are variations on how EFP factors differ between individual countries and this opens areas for further studies. Originality/value This research contributes to the current research studies by testing the impact of the gender gap on EFP instead of CO2 emission which is widely used in the literature. This topic is considered understudied and one of the few that uses the quantile panel regression to investigate this impact, none of which is used in gender and environment studies. Finally, the model used in the study uses a more comprehensive extension of the “Stochastic Impact by Regression on Pollution, Affluence and Technology” model compared to the existing empirical studies in this area.
{"title":"Gender gap and ecological footprint: are there country variations? Evidence from quantile panel regression","authors":"Eman Elish","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-08-2021-0042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-08-2021-0042","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of the gender gap on the ecological footprint (EFP) corresponding to its different quantiles.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Quantile panel regression for 24 countries from the period 2006 to 2017 will be used, for the gender gap and other determinants of EFP.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Each factor affecting EFP differs in its impact depending on the level of EFP quantile it corresponds to. Gender gap was found to be increasing EFP for the higher quantiles and decreasing EFP for the lower quantiles.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000Environmental institutions should be considering the role of gender equality as a factor affecting the environment. Socioeconomic factors sometimes hamper the role of the female gender in preserving the environment. There are variations on how EFP factors differ between individual countries and this opens areas for further studies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This research contributes to the current research studies by testing the impact of the gender gap on EFP instead of CO2 emission which is widely used in the literature. This topic is considered understudied and one of the few that uses the quantile panel regression to investigate this impact, none of which is used in gender and environment studies. Finally, the model used in the study uses a more comprehensive extension of the “Stochastic Impact by Regression on Pollution, Affluence and Technology” model compared to the existing empirical studies in this area.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2022-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45775404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-11DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-04-2021-0017
A. Rashid, Mohammad Basit
Purpose This paper aims to explore the empirical determinants of exchange-rate volatility (ERV) in selected Asian economies, namely, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. Specifically, it examines how the volatility of foreign reserves, government spending, industrial production, gold prices and terms of trade affect monthly ERV during the examined period. Design/methodology/approach The authors carry out the empirical analysis by using monthly data for the period January 1997–March 2019. First, the volatility of the underlying variables is measured based on the conditional variances obtained by estimating the univariate (generalized) autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] model for each variable during the study period. Next, the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH)-Lagrange multiplier test is applied to ensure that there are no remaining ARCH effects in the residuals. Finally, the multivariate autoregressive-moving average-GARCH (1, 1) models are estimated to examine whether and how the volatility of the underlying variables affects ERV. Findings The results reveal that the current period volatility of exchange rates is significantly affected by ERV in the previous period in all selected countries. The results also indicate that the volatilities of the underlying macroeconomic variables are quite differently related to ERV in examined Asian countries. Foreign-reserve volatility (VFXRES) has negative and significant impacts on ERV in Bangladesh, China and Malaysia. Government-spending volatility is negatively related to ERV in India, whereas it is positively related to ERV in all other examined countries. The results also suggest that although terms-of-trade volatility reduces ERV in both Bangladesh and Pakistan, it amplifies ERV in the remaining examined countries. However, gold-price volatility (VGOLDP) significantly, positively contributes to ERV in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia. On the contrary, the higher volatility in industrial production (VIPI) results in lower ERV in Indonesia and Pakistan, whereas it increases ERV in China, India and Malaysia. Practical implications The findings have several important policy implications. First, the findings suggest that both Bangladesh and Malaysia should keep an adequate level of foreign reserves to stabilize their foreign exchange rates. Second, as government-spending volatility has a vital role in determining ERV, it is necessary to bring sustainability and continuity in government expenditures. Bangladesh and Pakistan can stabilize their foreign exchange rates by making exports more competitive, viable and accessible. Originality/value This paper significantly contributes to the existing literature by exploring how the behavior of unexpected variations in the factors determining exchange rates affects ERV in selected Asia countries. Most of the published studies have examined the determinants of exchange rates by considering the
{"title":"Empirical determinants of exchange-rate volatility: evidence from selected Asian economies","authors":"A. Rashid, Mohammad Basit","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-04-2021-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-04-2021-0017","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to explore the empirical determinants of exchange-rate volatility (ERV) in selected Asian economies, namely, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. Specifically, it examines how the volatility of foreign reserves, government spending, industrial production, gold prices and terms of trade affect monthly ERV during the examined period.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors carry out the empirical analysis by using monthly data for the period January 1997–March 2019. First, the volatility of the underlying variables is measured based on the conditional variances obtained by estimating the univariate (generalized) autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] model for each variable during the study period. Next, the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH)-Lagrange multiplier test is applied to ensure that there are no remaining ARCH effects in the residuals. Finally, the multivariate autoregressive-moving average-GARCH (1, 1) models are estimated to examine whether and how the volatility of the underlying variables affects ERV.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results reveal that the current period volatility of exchange rates is significantly affected by ERV in the previous period in all selected countries. The results also indicate that the volatilities of the underlying macroeconomic variables are quite differently related to ERV in examined Asian countries. Foreign-reserve volatility (VFXRES) has negative and significant impacts on ERV in Bangladesh, China and Malaysia. Government-spending volatility is negatively related to ERV in India, whereas it is positively related to ERV in all other examined countries. The results also suggest that although terms-of-trade volatility reduces ERV in both Bangladesh and Pakistan, it amplifies ERV in the remaining examined countries. However, gold-price volatility (VGOLDP) significantly, positively contributes to ERV in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia. On the contrary, the higher volatility in industrial production (VIPI) results in lower ERV in Indonesia and Pakistan, whereas it increases ERV in China, India and Malaysia.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The findings have several important policy implications. First, the findings suggest that both Bangladesh and Malaysia should keep an adequate level of foreign reserves to stabilize their foreign exchange rates. Second, as government-spending volatility has a vital role in determining ERV, it is necessary to bring sustainability and continuity in government expenditures. Bangladesh and Pakistan can stabilize their foreign exchange rates by making exports more competitive, viable and accessible.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper significantly contributes to the existing literature by exploring how the behavior of unexpected variations in the factors determining exchange rates affects ERV in selected Asia countries. Most of the published studies have examined the determinants of exchange rates by considering the ","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48138029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-24DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-04-2021-0019
J. Mejia
Purpose This paper aims to offer a unified economic interpretation of the existing evidence on the Manila Galleon. It intends to be an introduction to the Manila Galleon for economists curious about long-term patterns in global trade, but who are not experts on economic history. Design/methodology/approach The paper jointly presents quantitative and qualitative data to analyze in a critical way the existing work on the Manila Galleon. It proposes a conceptual model from the world-systems approach to reflect on the impact of this trade route. Evidence from two case studies, New Granada and Korea, accompany the model. Findings The paper finds that the Manila Galleon was only possible because of the temporary coincidence of a quite singular set of international circumstances and favorable local market conditions. The paper also finds that, despite its large effects on the global integration of silver markets, the Manila Galleon was a profoundly asymmetric activity that brought minor consequences to most of the world. Research limitations/implications This paper shows the importance of additional studies providing systematic quantitative evidence on the Manila Galleon. The long tradition of an archival collection developed by historians offers a huge potential to this line of research. In addition, studies in regions different from Mexico, the Philippines, Spain and China would contribute to a better understanding of the Manila Galleon’s global consequences. Practical implications This paper provides a series of reflections useful to think about the future challenges of global trade. These challenges require understanding the transformations that will come from profound technological change, massive reconfigurations of the geopolitical order and transitions in the long-term cycles of commodities. Because of their rare occurrence, these are forces hardly visible in recent history, making it necessary for the existence of long-term points of reference such as the Manila Galleon. Originality/value This paper brings together widespread evidence on the Manila Galleon and provides a unified interpretation of it. This opens the door for audiences who are not experts on the economic history of the period to discuss the topic, allowing them to reflect on its lessons for the modern world.
{"title":"The economics of the Manila Galleon","authors":"J. Mejia","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-04-2021-0019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-04-2021-0019","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to offer a unified economic interpretation of the existing evidence on the Manila Galleon. It intends to be an introduction to the Manila Galleon for economists curious about long-term patterns in global trade, but who are not experts on economic history.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The paper jointly presents quantitative and qualitative data to analyze in a critical way the existing work on the Manila Galleon. It proposes a conceptual model from the world-systems approach to reflect on the impact of this trade route. Evidence from two case studies, New Granada and Korea, accompany the model.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The paper finds that the Manila Galleon was only possible because of the temporary coincidence of a quite singular set of international circumstances and favorable local market conditions. The paper also finds that, despite its large effects on the global integration of silver markets, the Manila Galleon was a profoundly asymmetric activity that brought minor consequences to most of the world.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This paper shows the importance of additional studies providing systematic quantitative evidence on the Manila Galleon. The long tradition of an archival collection developed by historians offers a huge potential to this line of research. In addition, studies in regions different from Mexico, the Philippines, Spain and China would contribute to a better understanding of the Manila Galleon’s global consequences.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000This paper provides a series of reflections useful to think about the future challenges of global trade. These challenges require understanding the transformations that will come from profound technological change, massive reconfigurations of the geopolitical order and transitions in the long-term cycles of commodities. Because of their rare occurrence, these are forces hardly visible in recent history, making it necessary for the existence of long-term points of reference such as the Manila Galleon.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper brings together widespread evidence on the Manila Galleon and provides a unified interpretation of it. This opens the door for audiences who are not experts on the economic history of the period to discuss the topic, allowing them to reflect on its lessons for the modern world.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41857338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-14DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-12-2020-0070
Dimitrios Karkanis, Myrsini Fotopoulou
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify trade integration and structure effects on bilateral trade between China and its partners, focusing on Chinese merchandise imports during the period 1995–2018. Design/methodology/approach The methodological approach applied here uses the augmented gravity model to investigate the factors lying behind import intensity, by use of the ordinary least squares (OLS) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimators. Findings The findings provide evidence of complementarity between the Chinese demand and the world commodity markets. Free trade agreements between China and third countries seem to gradually lose significance, as the Chinese economy consolidates in world trade. Higher product diversification in export structures of China’s trading partners can become advantageous for facilitating market penetration. Diversification of energy resources, the steady, high demand for infrastructure equipment and more sophisticated consumer products constantly determine the structure of Chinese merchandise imports originating mainly and increasingly from countries with direct access to the Pacific Ocean. Originality/value The analytical breakdown of Chinese imports, presented in this paper, adds value to the existing literature with regard to trade structure analysis for China, paving the way for similar research for other developing countries as well.
{"title":"Trade integration, product diversification and the gravity equation: evidence from the Chinese merchandise imports","authors":"Dimitrios Karkanis, Myrsini Fotopoulou","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-12-2020-0070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-12-2020-0070","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to identify trade integration and structure effects on bilateral trade between China and its partners, focusing on Chinese merchandise imports during the period 1995–2018.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The methodological approach applied here uses the augmented gravity model to investigate the factors lying behind import intensity, by use of the ordinary least squares (OLS) and Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimators.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings provide evidence of complementarity between the Chinese demand and the world commodity markets. Free trade agreements between China and third countries seem to gradually lose significance, as the Chinese economy consolidates in world trade. Higher product diversification in export structures of China’s trading partners can become advantageous for facilitating market penetration. Diversification of energy resources, the steady, high demand for infrastructure equipment and more sophisticated consumer products constantly determine the structure of Chinese merchandise imports originating mainly and increasingly from countries with direct access to the Pacific Ocean.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The analytical breakdown of Chinese imports, presented in this paper, adds value to the existing literature with regard to trade structure analysis for China, paving the way for similar research for other developing countries as well.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45002684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-22DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-09-2020-0060
Siyu Chen, Gengzhi Huang, Hongou Zhang, Yuyao Ye, Qitao Wu
Purpose Institutional factors play an important and complex role in Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) location choices that do not seem to be influenced by a host country’s high political risks. Moreover, the location choice for OFDI is key to corporate strategic decision-making on internationalization. Therefore, this study aims to examine the direct investments of Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Laos. Design/methodology/approach Combining the purposive sampling strategy and snowball sampling method, the authors interviewed nine market- and resource-seeking Chinese enterprises in Laos. Drawing from the mainstream eclectic paradigm and the theory of new institutional economics, the authors analyzed two key variables – enterprise investment motivation and enterprise heterogeneity. Findings Chinese MNEs are not insensitive to the regressive institutional quality of host countries; the relationship effect and institutional distance are the location decision pathways along with which institutional factors influence Chinese multinationals’ investments in Laos; political stability is necessary for Chinese-funded enterprises to invest in Laos and the degree of corruption is an overestimated institutional preference factor. Originality/value The relationship effect is introduced into the analysis framework as an intermediate variable that influences the decision of MNEs to invest in countries with underdeveloped institutions. It verifies the significant roles of bilateral political relations and network relations in the OFDI location decisions of state-owned and private enterprises, respectively.
{"title":"Do institutional risk preferences exist in Chinese direct investments in ASEAN countries? A case study of Chinese-funded enterprises in Laos","authors":"Siyu Chen, Gengzhi Huang, Hongou Zhang, Yuyao Ye, Qitao Wu","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-09-2020-0060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-09-2020-0060","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Institutional factors play an important and complex role in Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) location choices that do not seem to be influenced by a host country’s high political risks. Moreover, the location choice for OFDI is key to corporate strategic decision-making on internationalization. Therefore, this study aims to examine the direct investments of Chinese multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Laos.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Combining the purposive sampling strategy and snowball sampling method, the authors interviewed nine market- and resource-seeking Chinese enterprises in Laos. Drawing from the mainstream eclectic paradigm and the theory of new institutional economics, the authors analyzed two key variables – enterprise investment motivation and enterprise heterogeneity.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Chinese MNEs are not insensitive to the regressive institutional quality of host countries; the relationship effect and institutional distance are the location decision pathways along with which institutional factors influence Chinese multinationals’ investments in Laos; political stability is necessary for Chinese-funded enterprises to invest in Laos and the degree of corruption is an overestimated institutional preference factor.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The relationship effect is introduced into the analysis framework as an intermediate variable that influences the decision of MNEs to invest in countries with underdeveloped institutions. It verifies the significant roles of bilateral political relations and network relations in the OFDI location decisions of state-owned and private enterprises, respectively.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47424855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-12DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0034
W. Ahmed, M. Sohaib, Jamal Maqsood, Ateeb Siddiqui
Purpose The purpose of this study is to determine if intraday week (IDW) effect of the currencies reflect leverage and asymmetric impact in currencies market. The study data set comprises of intraday patterns of 15 currencies from developed and emerging economies. Design methodology approach The study applies the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model technique to observe the IDW leverage and asymmetric effect after introducing hourly dummies variables, namely, IDWmon, IDWwed, IDWfrid and IDWfrid-mon. Findings The study results favor the propositions and confirm that IDW effect do exist in the international forex markets in relation to hourly trading pattern for respective currencies. Mostly, currencies do depreciate on Monday and Wednesday compared to the rest of the days. However, on the last trading day, i.e. Friday currencies observe an appreciation pattern which is for both economies. The results have an evidence of leverage and asymmetric effect confirmed by the E-GARCH model as a result of press releases and influence by micro-factors in the currency markets. Practical implications The study believes to have theoretical connection related to the better understanding of currencies trend for developed and emerging economies, as the IDW effect exists. Moreover, confirmation of both the leverage and asymmetric effect in observed currencies would be able to assist the investors in making rational choices during the trading hours and would confirm considerable profits through profit incentivized strategies. Originality value The study not only add knowledge to the previous study work in relation to the hourly trading pattern of currencies with reference to the IDW effects but also highlights the leverage and asymmetric effect in currencies that will help in formulating future trading strategies particular to emerging economies.
{"title":"Do intraday week effect in currencies hourly trading reflect leverage and asymmetric anomalies? Policy implications for traders","authors":"W. Ahmed, M. Sohaib, Jamal Maqsood, Ateeb Siddiqui","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0034","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to determine if intraday week (IDW) effect of the currencies reflect leverage and asymmetric impact in currencies market. The study data set comprises of intraday patterns of 15 currencies from developed and emerging economies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design methodology approach\u0000The study applies the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH) model technique to observe the IDW leverage and asymmetric effect after introducing hourly dummies variables, namely, IDWmon, IDWwed, IDWfrid and IDWfrid-mon.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The study results favor the propositions and confirm that IDW effect do exist in the international forex markets in relation to hourly trading pattern for respective currencies. Mostly, currencies do depreciate on Monday and Wednesday compared to the rest of the days. However, on the last trading day, i.e. Friday currencies observe an appreciation pattern which is for both economies. The results have an evidence of leverage and asymmetric effect confirmed by the E-GARCH model as a result of press releases and influence by micro-factors in the currency markets.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The study believes to have theoretical connection related to the better understanding of currencies trend for developed and emerging economies, as the IDW effect exists. Moreover, confirmation of both the leverage and asymmetric effect in observed currencies would be able to assist the investors in making rational choices during the trading hours and would confirm considerable profits through profit incentivized strategies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality value\u0000The study not only add knowledge to the previous study work in relation to the hourly trading pattern of currencies with reference to the IDW effects but also highlights the leverage and asymmetric effect in currencies that will help in formulating future trading strategies particular to emerging economies.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42695782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-12DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0028
Atif Awad
Purpose This paper aims to investigate the long-run impact of selected foreign capital inflows, including aid, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade and debt, on the economic growth of 21 low-income countries in the Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) region, during the period 1990–2018. Design/methodology/approach To obtain this objective and for robust analysis, a parametric approach, which was dynamic ordinary least squares, and a non-parametric technique, which was fully modified ordinary least squares, were used. Findings The results of both models confirmed that, in the long run, trade and aid affected the growth rate of the per capita income in these countries in a positive way. However, external debt seemed to have an adverse influence on such growth. Originality/value First, this is the initial study that has addressed this matter across a homogenous group of countries in the SSA region. Second, while most of the previous studies regarding capital inflows into the SSA region have focused on the impact of only one or two aspects of such foreign capital inflows on growth, the present study, instead, examined the impact of five types of foreign capital inflows (aid, remittances, FDI, trade and debt).
{"title":"Foreign capital inflows and economic growth: the experience of low-income countries in Sub Saharan Africa","authors":"Atif Awad","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0028","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to investigate the long-run impact of selected foreign capital inflows, including aid, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), trade and debt, on the economic growth of 21 low-income countries in the Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) region, during the period 1990–2018.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To obtain this objective and for robust analysis, a parametric approach, which was dynamic ordinary least squares, and a non-parametric technique, which was fully modified ordinary least squares, were used.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results of both models confirmed that, in the long run, trade and aid affected the growth rate of the per capita income in these countries in a positive way. However, external debt seemed to have an adverse influence on such growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000First, this is the initial study that has addressed this matter across a homogenous group of countries in the SSA region. Second, while most of the previous studies regarding capital inflows into the SSA region have focused on the impact of only one or two aspects of such foreign capital inflows on growth, the present study, instead, examined the impact of five types of foreign capital inflows (aid, remittances, FDI, trade and debt).\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47743609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-06-09DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-12-2020-0075
Muhammad Aftab, Amir Rafique, Evan Lau
Purpose The sticky-price monetary model of exchange rate states the overshooting hypothesis as, exchange rate depreciation beyond its long-term value in response to an increase in money supply owing to the sticky nature of prices. Because of interest and relevance to policy, there is a huge extant literature on it but with mixed findings that suggest the need for further studies to refine the findings. Pakistan’s rupee exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated 128.44% over the period May 2007–December 2018. Considering this substantial decline in rupee's value, this study aims to examine either the rupee short-run value is over-shot of its long-term value. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a linear ARDL approach that segregates the short-run and long-run effects thus clarifying the premise of exchange rate overshooting. Furthermore, this study also uses nonlinear ARDL as a robustness check incorporating structural breaks. Findings Findings based on a linear model show evidence of exchange rate undershooting that means a positive money shock causes the exchange rate to appreciate. A nonlinear analysis also provides support to these findings. However, the increase in relative money supply has more such effect than that of a decrease in the relative money supply. Moreover, the authorities’ inclination to stabilize the exchange rate appreciates its short-run value. Originality/value This study substantiates the overshooting hypothesis literature by considering the role of asymmetric effects of exchange rate determinants and structural breaks that is a rare attempt in the extant literature.
{"title":"Does the exchange rate overshoot in an emerging economy?","authors":"Muhammad Aftab, Amir Rafique, Evan Lau","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-12-2020-0075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-12-2020-0075","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The sticky-price monetary model of exchange rate states the overshooting hypothesis as, exchange rate depreciation beyond its long-term value in response to an increase in money supply owing to the sticky nature of prices. Because of interest and relevance to policy, there is a huge extant literature on it but with mixed findings that suggest the need for further studies to refine the findings. Pakistan’s rupee exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated 128.44% over the period May 2007–December 2018. Considering this substantial decline in rupee's value, this study aims to examine either the rupee short-run value is over-shot of its long-term value.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses a linear ARDL approach that segregates the short-run and long-run effects thus clarifying the premise of exchange rate overshooting. Furthermore, this study also uses nonlinear ARDL as a robustness check incorporating structural breaks.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Findings based on a linear model show evidence of exchange rate undershooting that means a positive money shock causes the exchange rate to appreciate. A nonlinear analysis also provides support to these findings. However, the increase in relative money supply has more such effect than that of a decrease in the relative money supply. Moreover, the authorities’ inclination to stabilize the exchange rate appreciates its short-run value.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study substantiates the overshooting hypothesis literature by considering the role of asymmetric effects of exchange rate determinants and structural breaks that is a rare attempt in the extant literature.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44038293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-05-31DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-06-2020-0024
Hana Woldekidan Azmete, Kahsay Gerezihar Tsaedu
Purpose The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze if a bilateral trade between two countries leads to a foreign direct investment (FDI) using a time series data spanning over the period 2000–2017. Design/methodology/approach The Engle-Granger method of co-integration analysis is applied to the data to estimate if China’s export to Ethiopia led to an inflow of FDI from China to Ethiopia over the long run. Findings The results indicated that bilateral trade (import from China) is a major determinant of Chinese FDI inflow to Ethiopia over the study period. Originality/value A number of studies have been conducted on the determinants of FDI in Ethiopia using time series data at different points of time. However, none of them tried to analyze what attracts FDI from an individual country. Accordingly, this study has concentrated on FDI from China and its relation with bilateral trade between China and Ethiopia as China is the number one FDI source and trade partner of Ethiopia.
{"title":"China’s FDI inflow into Ethiopia; Does it have relation with bilateral trade?","authors":"Hana Woldekidan Azmete, Kahsay Gerezihar Tsaedu","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-06-2020-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-06-2020-0024","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze if a bilateral trade between two countries leads to a foreign direct investment (FDI) using a time series data spanning over the period 2000–2017.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The Engle-Granger method of co-integration analysis is applied to the data to estimate if China’s export to Ethiopia led to an inflow of FDI from China to Ethiopia over the long run.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results indicated that bilateral trade (import from China) is a major determinant of Chinese FDI inflow to Ethiopia over the study period.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000A number of studies have been conducted on the determinants of FDI in Ethiopia using time series data at different points of time. However, none of them tried to analyze what attracts FDI from an individual country. Accordingly, this study has concentrated on FDI from China and its relation with bilateral trade between China and Ethiopia as China is the number one FDI source and trade partner of Ethiopia.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44081345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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