Pub Date : 2021-01-18DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0029
Syed Tehseen Jawaid, Mariya Ahmad Qureshi, Samran Ali
Purpose This study aims to motivate the reality that experiential investigation of immiserizing growth has not been performed at large. The key objective of the study is to analyse the empirical existence of immiserizing growth in the real world. Design/methodology/approach Theory of revealed preferences has been implemented for welfare movement by using Laspeyres and Paasche quantity index and for empirical estimations, logistic regression has been applied. The study established panel data of the world’s largest trading nations, including the USA, China, France, Germany, UK, Italy, Japan, the Netherland and Canada. Annual time series data for an extensive time period covering from 1981 till 2017 have been used. Findings Findings of the Laspeyres and Paasche index reveal that out of nine countries immiserizing growth prevails in five nations and those are Italy, Canada, the Netherland, UK and Japan. The results of panel logistic regression verify the significance of terms of trade on immiserizing growth in all included countries. Separate logistic regression has also been performed on all the five countries from which Italy, Canada, the Netherland exhibit significant results. Originality/value This study is a pioneer attempt towards the concept of immiserizing growth. Considering the fact that immiserizing growth is viewed by the majority of the scholars as a theoretical notion, this study attempts to investigate analytically the existence of immiserizing growth with real data set. The impact of terms of trade deterioration on the welfare of the world’s largest trading nations has been focused on the research which is in compliance with the concept of Bhagwati (1958).
{"title":"Does immiserizing growth exist? Evidence from world’s top trading nations","authors":"Syed Tehseen Jawaid, Mariya Ahmad Qureshi, Samran Ali","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-07-2020-0029","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to motivate the reality that experiential investigation of immiserizing growth has not been performed at large. The key objective of the study is to analyse the empirical existence of immiserizing growth in the real world.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Theory of revealed preferences has been implemented for welfare movement by using Laspeyres and Paasche quantity index and for empirical estimations, logistic regression has been applied. The study established panel data of the world’s largest trading nations, including the USA, China, France, Germany, UK, Italy, Japan, the Netherland and Canada. Annual time series data for an extensive time period covering from 1981 till 2017 have been used.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Findings of the Laspeyres and Paasche index reveal that out of nine countries immiserizing growth prevails in five nations and those are Italy, Canada, the Netherland, UK and Japan. The results of panel logistic regression verify the significance of terms of trade on immiserizing growth in all included countries. Separate logistic regression has also been performed on all the five countries from which Italy, Canada, the Netherland exhibit significant results.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study is a pioneer attempt towards the concept of immiserizing growth. Considering the fact that immiserizing growth is viewed by the majority of the scholars as a theoretical notion, this study attempts to investigate analytically the existence of immiserizing growth with real data set. The impact of terms of trade deterioration on the welfare of the world’s largest trading nations has been focused on the research which is in compliance with the concept of Bhagwati (1958).\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46099773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-14DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0055
Michael Insaidoo, Lilian Arthur, Samuel Amoako, F. Andoh
Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which the Ghana stock market performance has been impacted by the novel COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The study used the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model, by using daily time series data from 2 January 2015 to 13 October 2020. Both pre-estimation (Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron) and post-estimation tests (Jarque-Bera) were conducted to validate the results. Findings While the study shows a statistically insignificant negative relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ghana stock returns, the results confirm that the COVID-19 pandemic has occasioned an increase in the Ghana stock returns volatility by 8.23%. Furthermore, the study confirmed the presence of volatility clustering and asymmetric effect, with the latter implying that worthy news tends to affect volatility more than unwelcome news of equal size. Practical implications To dampen uncertainties that trigger stock market volatility, the government should surgically target worse affected COVID-19 pandemic businesses and households to check the drop in profits and demand. Rigidities associated with stock market operations must be addressed to make it attractive to investors even in the midst of a pandemic. Originality/value This paper is a pioneer attempt at assessing the extent to which a developing economy stock market has been impacted by the novel COVID-19 pandemic using the EGARCH model.
{"title":"Stock market performance and COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from a developing economy","authors":"Michael Insaidoo, Lilian Arthur, Samuel Amoako, F. Andoh","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-08-2020-0055","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this study is to assess the extent to which the Ghana stock market performance has been impacted by the novel COVID-19 pandemic.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The study used the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model, by using daily time series data from 2 January 2015 to 13 October 2020. Both pre-estimation (Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron) and post-estimation tests (Jarque-Bera) were conducted to validate the results.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000While the study shows a statistically insignificant negative relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ghana stock returns, the results confirm that the COVID-19 pandemic has occasioned an increase in the Ghana stock returns volatility by 8.23%. Furthermore, the study confirmed the presence of volatility clustering and asymmetric effect, with the latter implying that worthy news tends to affect volatility more than unwelcome news of equal size.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000To dampen uncertainties that trigger stock market volatility, the government should surgically target worse affected COVID-19 pandemic businesses and households to check the drop in profits and demand. Rigidities associated with stock market operations must be addressed to make it attractive to investors even in the midst of a pandemic.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper is a pioneer attempt at assessing the extent to which a developing economy stock market has been impacted by the novel COVID-19 pandemic using the EGARCH model.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2021-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45764110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-30DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-08-2020-0053
Samet Gunay, Gökberk Can, Murat Ocak
Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison to the global financial crisis (GFC) on the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of China. Design/methodology/approach Empirical analyses are conducted through alternative methods such as ordinary least squares, Markov regime switching (MRS) and mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. The flexibility of MIDAS regression enables us to use different variables with quarterly (GDP), monthly (export sales and foreign-exchange reserves) and daily frequencies (foreign exchange rates and Brent oil price). Findings The results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable negative effect on China’s GDP growth, while the dummy variables used for the GFC are found to be insignificant. Further, the forecast accuracy test statistics exhibited a superior performance from MIDAS regression compared to the alternative models, such as MRS regression analysis. According to the forecast results, the authors expect a recovery in China’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2020. Originality/value This is one of the earliest studies to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese economy, and to compare the impact of COVID-19 with the GFC. The authors provide further evidence regarding the performance of MIDAS regression analysis vs alternative methods. Findings obtained shed light on policymakers, corporations and households to update their consumption, saving and investment decisions in the chaotic environment of this pandemic.
{"title":"Forecast of China’s economic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic: a MIDAS regression analysis","authors":"Samet Gunay, Gökberk Can, Murat Ocak","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-08-2020-0053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-08-2020-0053","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison to the global financial crisis (GFC) on the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of China.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Empirical analyses are conducted through alternative methods such as ordinary least squares, Markov regime switching (MRS) and mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. The flexibility of MIDAS regression enables us to use different variables with quarterly (GDP), monthly (export sales and foreign-exchange reserves) and daily frequencies (foreign exchange rates and Brent oil price).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable negative effect on China’s GDP growth, while the dummy variables used for the GFC are found to be insignificant. Further, the forecast accuracy test statistics exhibited a superior performance from MIDAS regression compared to the alternative models, such as MRS regression analysis. According to the forecast results, the authors expect a recovery in China’s economic growth in the second quarter of 2020.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This is one of the earliest studies to examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese economy, and to compare the impact of COVID-19 with the GFC. The authors provide further evidence regarding the performance of MIDAS regression analysis vs alternative methods. Findings obtained shed light on policymakers, corporations and households to update their consumption, saving and investment decisions in the chaotic environment of this pandemic.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47513885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-21DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-08-2020-0050
A. Obayelu, S. Edewor, A. Ogbe
Purpose The paper is a preliminary assessment of coronavirus disease’s (COVID-19) effects on African trade, policy responses and opportunities within the limitations imposed by data and the information currently available and in the lights of other international organizations’ growth forecasts. The study was undertaken to get deeper understanding of the threats and opportunities of COVID-19 on African trade because of the existing interconnected trade networks making African countries to be more vulnerable and increasing number of restrictions and distortions among major traders. This study aims to present strong information required in underpinning sound national, regional and inter-regional policy responses to keep trade flowing. Design/methodology/approach To assess COVID-19’s effects on African trade, policy responses and opportunities, this study relied on data and information currently available from organizations such as World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank (WB), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, International Monetary Fund, European Union, International Trade Statistics and various African countries’ trade and national statistics publications. The analysis contains two main scenarios. The first, an observed effects scenario (first quarter of year 2020), looks at the observed effect of COVID-19 outbreak on trade in Africa. The second, a potential effects scenario, analyses the potential trade effects if the COVID-19 outbreak lingers and spreads more intensively than is assumed in the baseline scenario. Findings The COVID-19 outbreak affects several aspects of international trade even though the full effects of the outbreak are not yet visible in most trade data. Some leading indicators had shown that keeping trade flow can support the fight against COVID-19 as well as having damaging effect on Africa’s trade. COVID-19 had led to a deep fall in transaction, both at the international level and within-regions. Tariffs and other restrictions to imports harm the flow of critical products to African countries. Uncooperative trade policies lead to higher prices of goods in fragile and vulnerable African countries. Research limitations/implications Long term in-depth analysis of the effects of COVID-19 on trade using quantitative data is still very difficult because of paucity of data and the great level of the improbability of the trajectory of the spread of the virus. Informed assessment of the full trade impact of the pandemic on African countries is therefore still difficult. Notwithstanding, this study assesses the immediate effects and conveys the likely extent of impending African trade pains and the potential needs for assistance. Practical implications Trade in both goods and services plays a key role in overcoming the pandemic and limit its effects by providing access to essential medical goods to treat those affected, ensuring access to food, providing farmers with needed inputs, support jobs and sus
{"title":"Trade effects, policy responses and opportunities of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa","authors":"A. Obayelu, S. Edewor, A. Ogbe","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-08-2020-0050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-08-2020-0050","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The paper is a preliminary assessment of coronavirus disease’s (COVID-19) effects on African trade, policy responses and opportunities within the limitations imposed by data and the information currently available and in the lights of other international organizations’ growth forecasts. The study was undertaken to get deeper understanding of the threats and opportunities of COVID-19 on African trade because of the existing interconnected trade networks making African countries to be more vulnerable and increasing number of restrictions and distortions among major traders. This study aims to present strong information required in underpinning sound national, regional and inter-regional policy responses to keep trade flowing.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To assess COVID-19’s effects on African trade, policy responses and opportunities, this study relied on data and information currently available from organizations such as World Trade Organization (WTO), World Bank (WB), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, International Monetary Fund, European Union, International Trade Statistics and various African countries’ trade and national statistics publications. The analysis contains two main scenarios. The first, an observed effects scenario (first quarter of year 2020), looks at the observed effect of COVID-19 outbreak on trade in Africa. The second, a potential effects scenario, analyses the potential trade effects if the COVID-19 outbreak lingers and spreads more intensively than is assumed in the baseline scenario.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The COVID-19 outbreak affects several aspects of international trade even though the full effects of the outbreak are not yet visible in most trade data. Some leading indicators had shown that keeping trade flow can support the fight against COVID-19 as well as having damaging effect on Africa’s trade. COVID-19 had led to a deep fall in transaction, both at the international level and within-regions. Tariffs and other restrictions to imports harm the flow of critical products to African countries. Uncooperative trade policies lead to higher prices of goods in fragile and vulnerable African countries.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000Long term in-depth analysis of the effects of COVID-19 on trade using quantitative data is still very difficult because of paucity of data and the great level of the improbability of the trajectory of the spread of the virus. Informed assessment of the full trade impact of the pandemic on African countries is therefore still difficult. Notwithstanding, this study assesses the immediate effects and conveys the likely extent of impending African trade pains and the potential needs for assistance.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Trade in both goods and services plays a key role in overcoming the pandemic and limit its effects by providing access to essential medical goods to treat those affected, ensuring access to food, providing farmers with needed inputs, support jobs and sus","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/jcefts-08-2020-0050","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47963404","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-26DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-04-2020-0011
Jonas Polfuß, Dilara Sönmez
Purpose Using consumer electronics brands as examples, this paper aims to present country-of-origin (COO) as a dynamic concept, by analyzing changes in the representation and perception of the “Made in China” label in Germany. Design/methodology/approach Building on previous COO research, the study formulates four research questions, which are answered with a comprehensive brand analysis using website, media, and consumer data. Information were collected from 11 Chinese brand websites, 10,681 German media articles and a sample of 490 German consumers. The authors statistically evaluated the survey data and examined the website and media data by means of a qualitative content analysis. Findings The results of the study show how Chinese brands currently present their COO in Germany and how the perception of “Made in China,” by German media and consumers, has changed to varying degrees. These changes pose marketing challenges for the increasingly prevalent Chinese brands in Germany, which need to be addressed by companies using strategic PR and marketing activities. Research limitations/implications This study suggests that COO images should be understood as a dynamic construct, and the multifaceted brand perceptions, including media reports, should be given greater consideration. Practical implications International marketers will find information on current country product recognition, and recommendations for the analysis and strategic communication of (Chinese) brands abroad. Originality/value This study contributes to COO research by examining the recent status of “Made in China” labels in Germany, focusing on China not as a manufacturing location, but as the home country for branded products. A media analysis is incorporated to add a novel dimension to the examination of brand identity-image gaps.
{"title":"Country-of-origin as a dynamic concept: an analysis of Chinese consumer electronics brands in Germany","authors":"Jonas Polfuß, Dilara Sönmez","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-04-2020-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-04-2020-0011","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Using consumer electronics brands as examples, this paper aims to present country-of-origin (COO) as a dynamic concept, by analyzing changes in the representation and perception of the “Made in China” label in Germany.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Building on previous COO research, the study formulates four research questions, which are answered with a comprehensive brand analysis using website, media, and consumer data. Information were collected from 11 Chinese brand websites, 10,681 German media articles and a sample of 490 German consumers. The authors statistically evaluated the survey data and examined the website and media data by means of a qualitative content analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results of the study show how Chinese brands currently present their COO in Germany and how the perception of “Made in China,” by German media and consumers, has changed to varying degrees. These changes pose marketing challenges for the increasingly prevalent Chinese brands in Germany, which need to be addressed by companies using strategic PR and marketing activities.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This study suggests that COO images should be understood as a dynamic construct, and the multifaceted brand perceptions, including media reports, should be given greater consideration.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000International marketers will find information on current country product recognition, and recommendations for the analysis and strategic communication of (Chinese) brands abroad.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study contributes to COO research by examining the recent status of “Made in China” labels in Germany, focusing on China not as a manufacturing location, but as the home country for branded products. A media analysis is incorporated to add a novel dimension to the examination of brand identity-image gaps.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"13 1","pages":"115-138"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44250147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-11-06DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0005
M. Tahir, A. Jan, S. Shah, Badrul Alam, M. A. Afridi, Y. Tariq, Malik Fahim Bashir
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the contending role of important external inflows on the economic growth of Pakistan economy. The main purpose behind focusing on Pakistan is that it is receiving significant inflows from different international sources such as International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Asian Development Bank. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration approach for the purpose of exploring the long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. As Pakistan Government had been implementing some major liberalization policies during 1990s, data from 1976 to 2018 is used to estimate the specified models to reflect the impact of the surge of foreign inflows occurring from that time. In addition, error correction model is estimated for examining the short-run relationships. Findings The findings revealed the significant role played by different inflows in accelerating the economic growth. According to results, in the long run, all inflows, for example, Foreign direct investment (FDI), debt, official developdment assistance and remittances, have influenced significantly and positively the economic growth. The two control variables such as inflation and employment level included in the model have also played their expected role in the growth process. In the short run, some of the variables such as remittances, FDI and inflation rate have lost their significance level while for debt, aid and employment level, the signs of their coefficients become reversed. Practical implications Based on the findings, the study suggests the policymakers of Pakistan economy to liberalize the economy and attract more inflows from the external sources to accelerate economic growth. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first comprehensive empirical study on the role of foreign inflows in the process of economic growth in the context of Pakistan economy.
本文的目的是探讨重要的外部流入对巴基斯坦经济增长的竞争作用。关注巴基斯坦的主要目的是，它正从国际货币基金组织(imf)、世界银行(World Bank)和亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)等不同的国际来源获得大量资金流入。设计/方法/途径本研究采用自回归分布滞后协整方法，探讨变量间的长期协整关系。由于巴基斯坦政府在20世纪90年代实施了一些重大的自由化政策，因此使用1976年至2018年的数据来估计指定模型，以反映从那时起发生的外国流入激增的影响。此外，估计了误差修正模型，以检验短期关系。研究结果揭示了不同类型的资本流入在加速经济增长中所起的重要作用。结果表明，从长期来看，所有流入，例如外国直接投资、债务、官方发展援助和汇款，都对经济增长产生了重大和积极的影响。模型中包含的通货膨胀和就业水平这两个控制变量也在增长过程中发挥了预期的作用。在短期内，诸如汇款、外国直接投资和通货膨胀率等一些变量失去了其显著性水平，而对于债务、援助和就业水平，其系数的迹象则相反。实践启示基于研究结果，本研究建议巴基斯坦经济政策制定者应实行经济自由化，吸引更多的外部资金流入，以加速经济增长。原创性/价值据作者所知，这是第一次在巴基斯坦经济背景下对外资流入在经济增长过程中的作用进行全面的实证研究。
{"title":"Foreign inflows and economic growth in Pakistan: some new insights","authors":"M. Tahir, A. Jan, S. Shah, Badrul Alam, M. A. Afridi, Y. Tariq, Malik Fahim Bashir","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to explore the contending role of important external inflows on the economic growth of Pakistan economy. The main purpose behind focusing on Pakistan is that it is receiving significant inflows from different international sources such as International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Asian Development Bank.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The study adopted the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration approach for the purpose of exploring the long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. As Pakistan Government had been implementing some major liberalization policies during 1990s, data from 1976 to 2018 is used to estimate the specified models to reflect the impact of the surge of foreign inflows occurring from that time. In addition, error correction model is estimated for examining the short-run relationships.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings revealed the significant role played by different inflows in accelerating the economic growth. According to results, in the long run, all inflows, for example, Foreign direct investment (FDI), debt, official developdment assistance and remittances, have influenced significantly and positively the economic growth. The two control variables such as inflation and employment level included in the model have also played their expected role in the growth process. In the short run, some of the variables such as remittances, FDI and inflation rate have lost their significance level while for debt, aid and employment level, the signs of their coefficients become reversed.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Based on the findings, the study suggests the policymakers of Pakistan economy to liberalize the economy and attract more inflows from the external sources to accelerate economic growth.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first comprehensive empirical study on the role of foreign inflows in the process of economic growth in the context of Pakistan economy.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"13 1","pages":"97-113"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62060931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-10-22DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0002
S. Ongan, Ismet Gocer
Purpose This study aims to examine the impacts of changing US trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU Index) on US bilateral trade balance with China from a nonlinear methodology perspective. Design/methodology/approach The nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied. This model decomposes the TPU Index series into its increases (TPU+) and decreases (TPU−) and creates two new TPU Index series. Findings Empirical findings indicate that increases in the TPU Index improve the US bilateral trade balance only in the short-run (no long-run impact). However, decreases in the TPU Index worsen the US trade balance in the short run but improve it in the long run. Apart from these effects detected on US–China bilateral trade balances, this empirical study draws the conclusion that changing trade policy uncertainty plays a significant determining role for bilateral trade volumes. Originality/value Decomposed TPU index with the nonlinear ARDL model enables us to examine the separate impacts of the changes in TPU+ and TPU− indexes on US bilateral trade balance with China. Therefore, this model may discover potentially concealed-hidden true impacts of TPU index on US bilateral trade balance with this country.
{"title":"The US-China trade war with increasing trade policy uncertainty","authors":"S. Ongan, Ismet Gocer","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the impacts of changing US trade policy uncertainty (henceforth, TPU Index) on US bilateral trade balance with China from a nonlinear methodology perspective.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, recently developed by Shin et al. (2014), is applied. This model decomposes the TPU Index series into its increases (TPU+) and decreases (TPU−) and creates two new TPU Index series.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Empirical findings indicate that increases in the TPU Index improve the US bilateral trade balance only in the short-run (no long-run impact). However, decreases in the TPU Index worsen the US trade balance in the short run but improve it in the long run. Apart from these effects detected on US–China bilateral trade balances, this empirical study draws the conclusion that changing trade policy uncertainty plays a significant determining role for bilateral trade volumes.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Decomposed TPU index with the nonlinear ARDL model enables us to examine the separate impacts of the changes in TPU+ and TPU− indexes on US bilateral trade balance with China. Therefore, this model may discover potentially concealed-hidden true impacts of TPU index on US bilateral trade balance with this country.\u0000","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"13 1","pages":"87-94"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/jcefts-01-2020-0002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44723413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-21DOI: 10.1108/JCEFTS-03-2020-0010
M. Tahir, A. Hayat
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential impact of trade openness on economic growth for the economy of Brunei Darussalam. Design/methodology/approach - Empirical analyses are conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model (ARDL) procedure and the data utilized were spanning from 1989 to 2018. Findings - The obtained results indicated a positive and statistically significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth. Similarly, the results also revealed that domestic investment and natural resources positively impacted economic growth. Further, we found that human capital has impacted economic growth both negatively and significantly, which is against our prior expectations. Moreover, in the short run, trade openness and domestic investment have lost its significance level while all other variables have maintained both their significance levels and signs of their coefficients. Practical implications – This paper has provided comprehensive evidence regarding the relationship between trade openness and economic growth for Brunei Darussalam. Therefore, the policymakers of Brunei are suggested to take practical steps to gear up to trade liberalization and hence attain higher growth. Further, favorable attention is also needed for economic diversification and encouraging domestic investment to accelerate the long-run economic growth. Originality/value - As this is a comprehensive study on the economy of Brunei Darussalam, therefore, we expect that the policymakers would find it useful while formulating and exercising suitable policies related to trade openness.
{"title":"Does international trade promote economic growth? An evidence from Brunei Darussalam","authors":"M. Tahir, A. Hayat","doi":"10.1108/JCEFTS-03-2020-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-03-2020-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential impact of trade openness on economic growth for the economy of Brunei Darussalam. Design/methodology/approach - Empirical analyses are conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged Model (ARDL) procedure and the data utilized were spanning from 1989 to 2018. Findings - The obtained results indicated a positive and statistically significant relationship between trade openness and economic growth. Similarly, the results also revealed that domestic investment and natural resources positively impacted economic growth. Further, we found that human capital has impacted economic growth both negatively and significantly, which is against our prior expectations. Moreover, in the short run, trade openness and domestic investment have lost its significance level while all other variables have maintained both their significance levels and signs of their coefficients. Practical implications – This paper has provided comprehensive evidence regarding the relationship between trade openness and economic growth for Brunei Darussalam. Therefore, the policymakers of Brunei are suggested to take practical steps to gear up to trade liberalization and hence attain higher growth. Further, favorable attention is also needed for economic diversification and encouraging domestic investment to accelerate the long-run economic growth. Originality/value - As this is a comprehensive study on the economy of Brunei Darussalam, therefore, we expect that the policymakers would find it useful while formulating and exercising suitable policies related to trade openness.","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"13 1","pages":"71-85"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/JCEFTS-03-2020-0010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48812287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-03DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-12-2019-0065
F. Rehman, Yibing Ding, A. Noman, Muhammad Asif Khan
Over the past two decades, China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has risen remarkably. Whether such an increase affects the Chinese export diversification (ED) is a significant issue that has surprisingly remained unaddressed. This study aims to explain this issue that how OFDI plays a vital role in symmetric and asymmetric effects on its ED.,The authors introduce a robust nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Ironically, the purpose of this study is to analyze the symmetric and asymmetric effect of OFDI on ED.,The authors propose that growing OFDI would be more advantageous to China, rather than the policies of contraction. Therefore, the study provides valuable policy insights to consider the long-run asymmetric momentum given to ED by China’s OFDI.,The results of this study may seem to be an important newsletter for further policy discussion on how China can catch up on the benefits of ED through OFDI.
{"title":"China’s outward foreign direct investment and exports diversification: an asymmetric analysis","authors":"F. Rehman, Yibing Ding, A. Noman, Muhammad Asif Khan","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-12-2019-0065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-12-2019-0065","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past two decades, China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has risen remarkably. Whether such an increase affects the Chinese export diversification (ED) is a significant issue that has surprisingly remained unaddressed. This study aims to explain this issue that how OFDI plays a vital role in symmetric and asymmetric effects on its ED.,The authors introduce a robust nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Ironically, the purpose of this study is to analyze the symmetric and asymmetric effect of OFDI on ED.,The authors propose that growing OFDI would be more advantageous to China, rather than the policies of contraction. Therefore, the study provides valuable policy insights to consider the long-run asymmetric momentum given to ED by China’s OFDI.,The results of this study may seem to be an important newsletter for further policy discussion on how China can catch up on the benefits of ED through OFDI.","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"13 1","pages":"45-69"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/jcefts-12-2019-0065","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45456128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-05-08DOI: 10.1108/jcefts-12-2019-0066
Kai Liu, Masato Yamazaki, A. Koike
The purpose of this paper is to compare the Armington elasticities for world average values and country-specific values and obtain evidence for whether the world average elasticities and the “rule of two”, which have been applied in many papers, are accurate for cereals in trade policy studies related to an individual country.,The authors use panel data with a nested model to estimate and compare Armington elasticities based on world average values and country-specific values from 10 countries and regions.,The results suggest that cereals’ elasticities vary between world average values and country-specific values, and the “rule of two” is not strictly applicable. In fact, the “less than two” concept fits well in many cases.,This study sheds light on the effects of country heterogeneity on the elasticities and the accuracy of using world average elasticities in a trade policy study for an individual country. In addition, this paper offers estimated values of country-specific elasticities for 10 countries and regions.
{"title":"Estimation of Armington elasticities for trade-policy analysis","authors":"Kai Liu, Masato Yamazaki, A. Koike","doi":"10.1108/jcefts-12-2019-0066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jcefts-12-2019-0066","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to compare the Armington elasticities for world average values and country-specific values and obtain evidence for whether the world average elasticities and the “rule of two”, which have been applied in many papers, are accurate for cereals in trade policy studies related to an individual country.,The authors use panel data with a nested model to estimate and compare Armington elasticities based on world average values and country-specific values from 10 countries and regions.,The results suggest that cereals’ elasticities vary between world average values and country-specific values, and the “rule of two” is not strictly applicable. In fact, the “less than two” concept fits well in many cases.,This study sheds light on the effects of country heterogeneity on the elasticities and the accuracy of using world average elasticities in a trade policy study for an individual country. In addition, this paper offers estimated values of country-specific elasticities for 10 countries and regions.","PeriodicalId":44245,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies","volume":"13 1","pages":"21-35"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2020-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1108/jcefts-12-2019-0066","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41532142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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