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Recognizing Loan Losses in Banks: An Examination of Alternative Approaches 确认银行贷款损失:对各种方法的考察
Pub Date : 2019-06-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3398690
R. Vijayaraghavan
I investigate the accounting rules for loan loss recognition in banks. In June 2016 the FASB issued a new rule, effective in December 2019, that will replace current GAAP with a model that allows banks to use broader information to estimate loan loss allowances. To empirically examine current GAAP and the new model, I exploit differences in the information sets allowed under the old and the new rules. Using a methodology that combines micro data and machine learning techniques, I provide evidence that it is possible to construct a loan loss recognition model that outperforms the current GAAP without expanding the information set beyond that permitted under the current rule. I find that expanding this model’s information set does not significantly improve its performance. My model’s predicted allowances would have been materially larger at the outset of the financial crisis than actual reported bank estimates. The differences are due to that my model consistently assigns larger weights to certain input variables relative to current GAAP. I also find that weakly capitalized banks under-provision relative to well capitalized banks. My results provide a novel method to examine aspects of the new accounting rule before it comes into effect. The findings suggest that the way information is used, rather than the use of broader information set improves the estimates of loan loss allowance.
对银行贷款损失确认的会计准则进行了研究。2016年6月,美国财务会计准则委员会发布了一项新规则,将于2019年12月生效,该规则将用一种允许银行使用更广泛的信息来估计贷款损失准备金的模型取代现行的公认会计准则。为了经验性地检验当前GAAP和新模型,我利用了新旧规则下允许的信息集的差异。使用结合微观数据和机器学习技术的方法,我提供了证据,证明有可能构建优于当前GAAP的贷款损失识别模型,而不会将信息集扩展到当前规则允许的范围之外。我发现扩展这个模型的信息集并没有显著提高它的性能。在金融危机爆发之初,我的模型预测的配额将大大高于银行报告的实际估计。这些差异是由于我的模型始终为相对于当前GAAP的某些输入变量分配更大的权重。我还发现,相对于资本充足的银行,资本不足的银行拨备不足。我的研究结果提供了一种在新会计准则生效之前检验其各个方面的新方法。研究结果表明,使用信息的方式,而不是使用更广泛的信息集,可以改善贷款损失准备的估计。
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引用次数: 2
Peer Pressure: How do Peer-to-Peer Lenders affect Banks' Cost of Deposits and Liability Structure? 同业压力:p2p贷款机构如何影响银行存款成本和负债结构?
Pub Date : 2019-06-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3398843
H. Farag, Santosh Koirala, Danny McGowan
This paper shows that banks’ cost of deposits increase following exposure to the Fintech sector. We exploit the exogenous, staggered removal of restrictions on investing through peer-to-peer lending platforms by US states. The entry of Lending Club and Prosper cause the cost of deposits to increase by approximately 11% as banks face more intense competition for deposit funds. Banks’ liability structure also shifts towards greater reliance on non-deposit funding. The findings provide regulatory insights into the unintended consequences, and potentially destabilizing effects, of the nascent Fintech sector on the banking industry.
本文表明,银行的存款成本随着金融科技行业的曝光而增加。我们利用了美国各州对p2p借贷平台投资限制的外生、交错取消。Lending Club和Prosper的进入导致存款成本增加了约11%,因为银行面临着更激烈的存款资金竞争。银行的负债结构也转向更多地依赖非存款融资。这些发现为监管部门提供了见解,了解新兴金融科技行业对银行业的意外后果和潜在的不稳定影响。
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引用次数: 1
Economic Structures 20 Years into the Euro 欧元问世20年的经济结构
Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3957692
David Sondermann, Agostino Consolo, Vanessa Gunnella, G. Koester, K. Lambrias, Paloma López-García, C. Nerlich, Filippos Petroulakis, L. Saiz, Roberta Serafini
Well-functioning economic structures are key for resilient and prospering euro area economies. The global financial and sovereign debt crises exposed the limited resilience of the euro area’s economic structures. Economic growth was masking underlying weaknesses in several euro area countries. With the inception of the crises, significant efforts have been undertaken by Member States individually and collectively to strengthen resilience of economic structures and the smooth functioning of the euro area. National fiscal policies were consolidated to keep the increase in government debt contained and structural reform momentum increased notably in the second decade, particularly in those countries most hit by the crisis. The strengthened national economic structures were supported by a reformed EU crisis and economic governance framework. However, overall economic structures in euro area countries are still not fully commensurate with the requirements of a monetary union. Moreover, remaining challenges, such as population ageing, low productivity and the implications of digitalisation, will need to be addressed to increase economic resilience and long-term growth. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E60, E62, F10, J11, O43
运转良好的经济结构是欧元区经济恢复活力和繁荣的关键。全球金融危机和主权债务危机暴露了欧元区经济结构的有限弹性。经济增长掩盖了几个欧元区国家的潜在弱点。自危机开始以来,各成员国已单独和集体作出重大努力,以加强经济结构的弹性和欧元区的顺利运作。国家财政政策得到巩固,以控制政府债务的增加,结构改革的势头在第二个十年显著增加,特别是在受危机打击最严重的国家。加强的国家经济结构得到了改革后的欧盟危机和经济治理框架的支持。然而,欧元区国家的整体经济结构仍不完全符合货币联盟的要求。此外,仍需解决人口老龄化、生产率低下和数字化影响等挑战,以提高经济韧性和长期增长。JEL分类:E31、E32、E60、E62、F10、J11、O43
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引用次数: 5
Social Capital and Strengthening of Klong Arang Community, Sakeaw Province, Thailand 社会资本与加强Klong Arang社区,泰国佐固省
Pub Date : 2019-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3546296
Sirikhwan Boontham
This research purposes to study social capital of Klong Arang Community, and the factors that help strengthening Ban Klong Arang, Moo 16, Ban Gang Sub-district, Muang Sakeaw District, Sakeaw Province. It was conducted by using the qualitative research method which involves the collection of observation, in-depth interview from 15 informants who are related to Klong Arang Community, analyzing of the contents, and finally, synthesizing them to fulfill the objectives of the research. The result shows that Kong Arang Community comprise of the following kinds of social capital: 1) human capital, namely the headman of Ban Klong Arang, and the community committee, who are the important driving force in developing the community, 2) natural resources capital, namely natural forest and the community’s forest, 3) knowledge and cultural capital, namely knowledge on herbal medication, and important traditions and 4) institutional capital, namely the groups that are important to the community. The factors that cause the community to have strength are: (1) the community leaders being strong and knowledgeable, (2) the people in the community having the kinship-like relationship, respecting and caring for one another, (3) people in the community participating with the community, (4) management of the community in a compromising way, and giving opportunities to the people in the community to participate with the community, and (5) imposing rules for co-living within the community. These factors are important in making social capital valuable to the community, as well as able to strengthen Klong Arang Community.
本研究旨在研究九龙Arang社区的社会资本,以及有助于加强九龙Arang的因素,位于西贡省孟厝区坂岗街道16号。本研究采用质性研究方法,通过收集观察资料,对15名与Klong Arang社区相关的知情者进行深度访谈,对内容进行分析,最后进行综合,以实现研究目标。结果表明,孔阿郎社区由以下几种社会资本构成:1)人力资本,即Ban Klong Arang的负责人和社区委员会,他们是社区发展的重要动力;2)自然资源资本,即天然林和社区森林;3)知识和文化资本,即草药知识和重要传统;4)制度资本,即对社区重要的群体。使社区具有力量的因素是:(1)社区领导人的强大和知识渊博;(2)社区内的人具有亲缘关系,相互尊重和关心;(3)社区内的人参与社区;(4)以妥协的方式管理社区,并给予社区内的人参与社区的机会;(5)规定社区内共同生活的规则。这些因素对于使社会资本对社区有价值,并能够加强龙阿朗社区是很重要的。
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引用次数: 1
Credit Scoring Applied to Special Case 信用评分适用于特殊情况
Pub Date : 2019-05-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3456130
Mario R. Melchiori
The present work studies an bank actives in the loans with repayment through payroll deductions a employees of the state government. Those employees have legal job stability, so is very difficult that an employee is fired. Given both, job stability and the sure payment, the default probability is very low, but Argentine banking regulator requires that under certain circumstances a bank must provisioning (charge a loss) to debtor paying in a timely manner the debt contracted but delay pays of debt with other bank. This become very expensive for the bank, so, the bank want avoid give a loan to whose can fall in this situation.

The bank requiered us to design a model that predict if a debtor will be reclassified during the next year. The bank also requires build a score system and pick a cutoff that reach a reclassified rate lesser than 0.045, but allowing high approval rate.
本论文研究的是一家银行通过扣减州政府雇员的工资偿还贷款的行为。这些员工有合法的工作稳定性,所以很难被解雇。鉴于两者,工作稳定和确定付款,违约概率很低,但阿根廷银行监管机构要求,在某些情况下,银行必须拨备(计提损失)债务人及时支付合同债务,但延迟支付与其他银行的债务。这对银行来说是非常昂贵的,所以,银行希望避免贷款给那些可能陷入这种情况的人。银行要求我们设计一个模型,预测债务人在明年是否会被重新分类。此外,银行还要求建立评分系统,在重新分类的比率低于0.045的情况下,选择一个中间值,但允许较高的通过率。
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引用次数: 1
Banks Adjust Slowly: Evidence and Lessons for Modeling 银行缓慢调整:建模的证据和教训
Pub Date : 2019-04-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3394601
Juliane Begenau, Saki Bigio, Jeremy Majerovitz, M. Vieyra
This paper presents five facts on the behavior of U.S. banks between 2007 and 2015 that impose useful restrictions on the formulation of a bank problem. (1) Market to book leverage ratio diverged significantly during the crisis. (2) Book values appear to be backward looking. There is more information content about future bank profitability and loan losses in market values than in book values. (3) Neither market nor regulatory constraints are strictly binding for most banks. (4) Banks operate with a target market leverage ratio. (5) The adjustment behavior back to the target changed fundamentally after the crisis. We present a heterogeneous-bank model that rationalizes these facts and can serve as a building block for future work.
本文提出了2007年至2015年间美国银行行为的五个事实,这些事实对银行问题的形成施加了有用的限制。(1)市场账面杠杆率在危机期间出现了显著分化。(2)账面价值似乎是向后看的。市场价值比账面价值包含更多关于未来银行盈利能力和贷款损失的信息。(3)对大多数银行来说,无论是市场约束还是监管约束都没有严格的约束力。(4)银行以目标市场杠杆率经营。(5)危机后回归目标的调整行为发生了根本性变化。我们提出了一个异构银行模型,使这些事实合理化,并可以作为未来工作的基石。
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引用次数: 12
Does Corruption Impact the Demand of Bank Credit? A Study of Discouraged Borrowers in Asian Developing Countries 腐败是否影响银行信贷需求?亚洲发展中国家泄气借款人研究
Pub Date : 2019-04-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3369672
Jean-Christophe Statnik, Vu Thi Huong Giang
Two dysfunctions can affect the credit market: credit rationing and firm's discouragement. While the former has been studied in detail for more than 40 years, the latter has only been in the spotlight since 2003. In this work, we contribute to the understanding of this “demand-side failure” by investigating the role played by corruption. In particular, using data coming from Enterprise Surveys conducted by World Bank, we highlight, on the one hand, a significant negative effect of the corruption on “discouraged borrowers” in developing countries, and on the other, that this effect differs according to the level of economic development: in higher (resp. lower) development countries, higher level of corruption will discourage (resp. encourage) firms from applying for loans. We also find burden of government regulation is a channel to explain for this effect. To get over burdens in regulation, firms find corruption as one way to reach their targets at lower costs.
影响信贷市场的两种功能失调:信贷配给和企业气馁。前者已经被详细研究了40多年,而后者直到2003年才受到关注。在这项工作中,我们通过调查腐败所起的作用,有助于理解这种“需求侧失败”。特别是,我们利用来自世界银行企业调查的数据,一方面强调了腐败对发展中国家“气馁的借款人”的重大负面影响,另一方面,这种影响因经济发展水平而异。在较低的发展中国家,较高的腐败水平将阻碍(尊重)。鼓励企业申请贷款。我们还发现政府监管负担是解释这一效应的一个渠道。为了减轻监管方面的负担,企业发现腐败是以较低成本达到目标的一种方式。
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引用次数: 5
Productivity Change of Indian Commercial Banks: A Non-Parametric Study 印度商业银行生产率变化:一个非参数研究
Pub Date : 2019-04-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3368797
S. Behera
With the growth of Indian economy, the volume of transactions of commercial banks has grown manifold. The study attempts to investigate the total factor productivity change of four leading Indian commercial banks using non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) and distance function based Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) over FY2007 to FY2016. The operating approach (or income-based approach) is adopted for input-output selection, viewing the banks as decision-making units (DMU) transforming a bundle of inputs (costs) to produce a set of outputs (revenues). A DMU is considered efficient which maximizes the revenues without increasing the costs. The results indicate that the annual TFP growth registered by these four banks is 3.3%. While two banks recorded productivity growth, the productivity of two other banks declined during the period. Highest productivity growth was recorded during FY2015 and FY2016. TFP growth is further decomposed to Efficiency change (EFFCH) and Technical change (TECHCH) components to study the catchup by less efficient DMUs.
随着印度经济的发展,商业银行的交易量也成倍增长。本研究试图利用非参数数据包络分析(DEA)和基于距离函数的马姆奎斯特生产率指数(MPI)对2007财年至2016财年印度四家主要商业银行的全要素生产率变化进行调查。投入产出选择采用经营方法(或基于收入的方法),将银行视为决策单位(DMU),将一束投入(成本)转化为一组产出(收入)。在不增加成本的情况下实现收益最大化的DMU被认为是高效的。结果表明,这四家银行的TFP年增长率为3.3%。虽然两家银行的生产率出现增长,但另外两家银行的生产率在此期间有所下降。2015财年和2016财年是生产率增长最快的时期。将TFP增长进一步分解为效率变化(EFFCH)和技术变化(TECHCH)两个分量,研究低效率dmu的追赶。
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引用次数: 2
Resolution Regimes in the Financial Sector: In Need of Cross-Sectoral Regulation? 金融部门的处置机制:需要跨部门监管吗?
Pub Date : 2019-03-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3346455
Jens-Hinrich Binder
Conceptually, the ‘resolution’ of financial intermediaries does not merely refer to instruments and procedures for the management of insolvencies in the financial sector generally. Rather, ‘resolution’ is conceived as a functional alternative to, and substitute for, traditional means of insolvency management (in particular, liquidation procedures), to be applied specifically in cases where such traditional means cannot be activated in view of potentially disastrous implications for professional counter-parties, depositors, market infrastructures – in short, for systemic stability. While the scope of these legal instruments is not expressly restricted to systemically relevant institutions, care has been taken to restrict the use of the innovative toolbox to cases where the public interest in the prevention of contagious effects, in light of the size of the institution in question, its market share, complexity and/or connectedness with other parties, outweighs the disadvantages (e.g., the detrimental effects on creditors, as well as potentially higher costs of resolution compared with traditional insolvency liquidation). Although it is now widely agreed that systemic relevance is not a phenomenon confined to any particular type of financial institution but depends on factors such as size, market share, and interconnection with other market participants, the emergence of resolution regimes has thus far been characterised by the traditional boundaries between banks, investment firms, insurance companies, and financial market infrastructures. Against the backdrop of a growing body of international standards and European legislation on resolution frameworks, most of which have been sectoral in scope and content so far, the present Chapter analyses the rationale of, and perspectives for, a move towards cross-sectoral regulation in the area of financial institutions’ insolvency management.
从概念上讲,金融中介机构的“解决”不仅仅是指一般金融部门破产管理的工具和程序。相反,“决议”被认为是传统破产管理手段(特别是清算程序)的功能性替代和替代,特别是在传统手段无法启动的情况下,鉴于对专业对手方、存款人、市场基础设施的潜在灾难性影响-简而言之,对系统稳定。虽然这些法律工具的范围并未明确限制在与系统相关的机构,但鉴于相关机构的规模、市场份额、复杂性和/或与其他各方的联系,已谨慎地将创新工具箱的使用限制在防止传染效应的公共利益超过其不利影响(例如对债权人的不利影响)的情况下。此外,与传统的破产清算相比,解决方案的成本可能更高)。尽管现在人们普遍认为,系统相关性并不局限于任何特定类型的金融机构,而是取决于规模、市场份额和与其他市场参与者的相互联系等因素,但迄今为止,决议制度的出现以银行、投资公司、保险公司和金融市场基础设施之间的传统界限为特征。在关于决议框架的国际标准和欧洲立法日益增多的背景下,其中大多数迄今为止在范围和内容上都是部门性的,本章分析了在金融机构破产管理领域采取跨部门监管措施的理由和前景。
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引用次数: 0
Advances in Incremental Valuation of Financial Contracts and Definition of the Economic Meaning of the Capital Value Adjustment (KVA) 金融合同增量估值研究进展与资本价值调整的经济意义界定
Pub Date : 2019-02-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3337618
A. Castagna
We extend the analysis we sketched in Castagna [5] and we provide an application of the framework we introduced to incrementally evaluate financial contracts within a financial institution’s balance sheet.
我们扩展了我们在Castagna[5]中概述的分析,并提供了我们引入的框架的应用程序,以增量评估金融机构资产负债表中的金融合同。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal
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