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Возможности расчетов в национальных валютах со странами - партнерами России по интеграционным объединениям (Current Possibilities of Bank Settlements in National Currencies of Russia’s Partner Countries in International Economic Associations)

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-12-20 DOI: 10.18288/1994-5124-2020-6-66-89

Yu I. Kuznetsov, V. Utkin

Russian Abstract: В статье исследуется вопрос о развитии международных расчетов в национальных валютах стран — партнеров России по международным интеграционным объединениям — Евразийскому экономическому союзу, Шанхайской организации сотрудничества и экономическому блоку БРИКС. Актуальность исследования обусловлена потребностями экономической интеграции, расширением практики экономических санкций в отношениях между государствами, а также кризисными явлениями в мировой финансовой системе. Эмпирической базой исследования являются результаты опроса представителей девятнадцати крупнейших российских банков. Опрос проводился по смешанной методике с формализованной и неформализованной составляющими. В анкете содержались вопросы о возможностях открытия счетов в валютах стран-партнеров, проведения расчетных операциях в них, об использовании различных систем передачи финансовых сообщений для расчетных операций, а также о перспективах развития расчетов в национальных валютах. Исследование позволяет сделать вывод, что переход на расчеты в национальных валютах сам по себе не может решить проблемы минимизации отрицательных последствий внешних ограничений. Помимо хорошо изученных экономических характеристик национальных валют стран с формирующимися рынками, таких как волатильность, неразвитость валютного рынка, ограниченность возможностей кредитования и т. п., существенным препятствием для развития расчетов в них являются регуляторные издержки. Одним из основных направлений развития расчетов в национальных валютах может стать существенное упрощение норм и процедур валютного контроля при взаимных расчетах со странами-партнерами в национальных валютах, а также гармонизация соответствующей нормативной базы в рамках интеграционных объединений, прежде всего ЕАЭС. В сфере услуг по передаче финансовых сообщений не следует стремиться к тому, чтобы cистема передачи финансовых сообщений Банка России стала коммерчески эффективной и завоевала как можно бóльшую долю рынка. Она должна развиваться как резервная система, и основное внимание следует уделять обеспечению легкости перехода на нее в случае отключения РФ от системы SWIFT, а также совместимости с аналогичными системами, действующими в странах ЕАЭС.

English Abstract: The article examines the issue of the development of international settlements in the national currencies of Russia’s partner countries in international integration associations—the Eurasian Economic Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the BRICS economic bloc. The relevance of the study is due to the needs of economic integration and the expansion of the practice of economic sanctions in relations between states, as well as crisis phenomena in the global financial system. A survey of representatives of 19 largest Russian banks serves as the empirical base of the study. The survey has been conducted using a hybrid methodology with formalized and non-formalized elements. The questionnaire contained questions about the poss

俄罗斯Abstract:这篇文章探讨了俄罗斯国际一体化伙伴国家货币的发展——欧亚联盟、上海合作组织和金砖四国经济集团。这项研究的紧迫性是由于经济一体化的需要、国家间经济制裁的扩大以及全球金融体系中的危机现象。经验数据库是俄罗斯19家最大银行的调查结果。调查是用一种混合的方法进行的，这种方法既正式又不正式。问卷讨论了在伙伴国家的货币中开立账户的可能性，在货币中进行清算，使用不同的金融信息系统进行清算，以及各国货币的发展前景。这项研究得出的结论是，单靠本国货币就无法解决将外部限制的负面影响最小化的问题。除了新兴市场国家货币波动、货币市场不发达、信贷受限等国家的经济特征外，监管成本是计算发展的主要障碍。国家货币核算的主要发展方向之一可能是通过与国家货币伙伴国家的相互核算来大幅简化货币管制规则和程序，以及在一体化联盟(eeca)框架内协调相应的监管框架。在金融服务领域，不应试图确保俄罗斯银行的金融信息传递系统在商业上有效，并尽可能多地获得市场份额。它必须作为一个后备系统发展，必须集中精力确保在俄罗斯脱离SWIFT的情况下易于切换，并与欧洲核电厂国家的类似系统兼容。英语Abstract:俄罗斯国家拓展展的国际文献:欧洲经济联盟、上海合作组织和金砖四国集团。《经济学人的需要》是《经济学人的需要》，也是《全球金融系统的危机》中的《经济学人的需要》。这是俄罗斯最大的19家银行服务公司作为工作室的帝国基础的生存。幸存的has been是由formalized和非forements组成的混合动力车。《探索探索》是《探索探索》的主题，《探索探索探索》是《探索探索》的主题，《探索探索探索》是《探索探索》的主题。我们的工作室allows在全国范围内进行了翻译，这是一个小问题，以减少外部性问题。在《国家财富》杂志的赞助下，《财富交换》的封面，《财富交换》的封面，《财富交换》的封面，《财富交换》的封面，《财富交换》的封面，《财富交换》的封面。Some of the main方向for the development of居住in national currencies may be a simplification一张重要of the norms and procedures of居住过上述一揽子control in互助with partner国家in national currencies as well as t monization of the,管理环境within the framework of in - tegration primarily the EAEU通讯。在金融互助服务的范围内，一个人应该知道俄罗斯银行的金融互助系统(SPFS)。这应该是一个开放的家庭系统，而应该是一个主要的家庭系统，以确保俄罗斯联邦系统的转移。

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引用次数: 1

Monarchy Versus Republic in the Political Discourse of Modern Spain 现代西班牙政治话语中的君主政体与共和政体

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-12-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3748078

E. Astakhova

The "monarchy-republic" dichotomy is not conjunctural, but historical in nature and reflects the confrontation between the "two Spains". Each time against the backdrop of crises in the society the conflict worsens. At present, this alternative is closely linked to the revisionism of the last 45 years of Spanish history - the assessment of democratic transition, the formation of democracy, government policy, specific political events, the Catalan crisis and the problem of the country's territorial integrity. Spanish society remains divided on this and other key issues of social life. Different political forces benefit from the "monarchy-republic" dilemma, presenting arguments for and against the existing form of government. This issue is particularly acute in Catalonia. At the same time, for the majority of Spain's population, regardless of the region, urgent social and economic issues remain crucial. In the near and medium term, the Spaniards, despite allowing themselves to be "progressive", choose "republican monarchism", which ensures political stability.

“君主制-共和制”的二分法不是时势的，而是历史的，反映了“两个西班牙”之间的对抗。每次在社会危机的背景下，冲突都会恶化。目前，这一选择与西班牙过去45年历史上的修正主义密切相关- -对民主过渡的评估、民主的形成、政府政策、具体政治事件、加泰罗尼亚危机和该国领土完整问题。西班牙社会在这个问题和其他社会生活的关键问题上仍然存在分歧。不同的政治力量受益于“君主制-共和制”的困境，提出支持和反对现有政府形式的论点。这个问题在加泰罗尼亚尤为严重。与此同时，对于西班牙的大多数人口来说，无论在哪个地区，紧迫的社会和经济问题仍然至关重要。在近期和中期，尽管西班牙人允许自己“进步”，但他们选择了“共和君主制”，这确保了政治稳定。

引用次数: 0

Estimation of Optimal Government Size for Economic Growth: Armey Curve Application 经济增长的最优政府规模估计:军队曲线的应用

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-12-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3903772

naftaly mose

This study, assuming a balanced budget, attempts to estimate the optimal size of devolved government expenditure in 47 Kenyan counties using the panel ARDL regression and Scully (2008) model for the period 2014-2018. The estimation model examined Armey’s idea of a quadratic curve that explains the level of government expenditure in an economy and the corresponding level of economic growth. The panel ARDL series analysis reveals that devolved government size is optimized when county expenditures stand at 9.7% of GCP (Gross County Product). The estimated threshold size is higher than the current size of county government in Kenya. The low level of devolved government size in counties reflects the low level of economic activities in Counties. This study therefore recommends that county governments should increase its spending budget on infrastructure, social and economic activities to 9.7% of GCP to stimulate overall county economic growth.

本研究假设预算平衡，试图使用面板ARDL回归和Scully(2008)模型估算2014-2018年期间47个肯尼亚县的下放政府支出的最佳规模。估计模型检验了Armey的二次曲线理论，二次曲线解释了一个经济体的政府支出水平和相应的经济增长水平。面板ARDL系列分析表明，当县支出占县生产总值(GCP)的9.7%时，地方分权政府规模最优。估计的门槛规模高于肯尼亚县政府目前的规模。县域分权规模低反映了县域经济活动水平低。因此，本研究建议县政府应将基础设施和社会经济活动支出预算增加到GCP的9.7%，以刺激县域整体经济增长。

引用次数: 0

Deposit Insurance, Bank Ownership and Depositor Behavior 存款保险、银行所有权与存款人行为

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3766016

Sümeyra Atmaca, Karolin Kirschenmann, S. Ongena, K. Schoors

We employ proprietary data from a large bank to analyze how (in times of crisis) depositors react to a bank nationalization, re-privatization and an accompanying increase in deposit insurance. Nationalization slows depositors fleeing the bank, provided they have sufficient trust in the national government, while the increase in deposit insurance spurs depositors below the new 100K limit to deposit more. Prior to nationalization, depositors bunch just below the then-prevailing 20K limit. But they abandon bunching entirely during state-ownership, to return to bunching below the new 100K limit after re-privatization. Especially depositors with low switching costs are moving money around.

我们使用一家大型银行的专有数据来分析(在危机时期)存款人对银行国有化、再私有化以及随之而来的存款保险增加的反应。国有化减缓了储户逃离银行的速度，前提是他们对国家政府有足够的信任，而存款保险的增加则刺激了低于10万新限额的储户增加存款。在国有化之前，存款人的存款额度略低于当时流行的2万。但他们在国有期间完全放弃了集束，在重新私有化后又回到了低于10万的集束。特别是存款成本较低的储户正在转移资金。

引用次数: 2

Dynamic Banking and the Value of Deposits 动态银行和存款价值

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3624119

P. Bolton, Ye Li, Neng Wang, Jinqiang Yang

We propose a dynamic theory of banking where the role of deposits is akin to that of productive capital in the classical Q-theory of investment for non-financial firms. As a key source of leverage, deposits create value for well-capitalized banks. However, unlike productive capital of nonfinancial firms that typically has a positive marginal q, the deposit q can turn negative for undercapitalized banks. Demand deposit accounts commit banks to allow holders to withdraw or deposit funds at will, so banks cannot perfectly control leverage. Therefore, for banks with insufficient capital to buffer risk, deposit inflow destroys value through the uncertainty it brings in future leverage. This intertemporal channel complements the focus of static models on value destruction of deposit outflow and bank run. Our model predictions on bank valuation and dynamic asset-liability management are broadly consistent with the evidence. Moreover, our model lends itself to a re-evaluation of the costs and benefits of leverage regulation, offers alternative perspectives on banking in a low interest rate environment, and reveals new aspects of deposit market power that has unique implications on bank franchise value.

我们提出了一个动态的银行理论，其中存款的作用类似于非金融公司投资的经典q理论中的生产性资本。存款作为杠杆的重要来源，为资本充足的银行创造价值。然而，与通常具有正边际q的非金融公司的生产性资本不同，资本不足的银行的存款q可能变为负值。活期存款账户要求银行允许持有人随意提取或存入资金，因此银行无法完全控制杠杆。因此，对于资本不足以缓冲风险的银行来说，存款流入通过带来未来杠杆的不确定性来破坏价值。这种跨期通道补充了静态模型对存款外流和银行挤兑的价值破坏的关注。我们对银行估值和动态资产负债管理的模型预测与证据大致一致。此外，我们的模型有助于重新评估杠杆监管的成本和收益，为低利率环境下的银行业提供了另一种视角，并揭示了存款市场力量的新方面，这些方面对银行特许经营价值具有独特的影响。

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引用次数: 16

History's Masters: The Effect of European Monarchs on State Performance 历史大师:欧洲君主对国家政绩的影响

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.3386/w28297

Sebastian Ottinger, Nico Voigtländer

We create a novel reign-level dataset for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers’ intellectual capabilities and state-level outcomes. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that i) rulers were appointed according to primogeniture, independent of their ability, and ii) the wide-spread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led to quasi-random variation in ruler ability. We code the degree of blood relationship between the parents of rulers. The ‘coefficient of inbreeding’ is a strong predictor of ruler ability, and the corresponding instrumental variable results imply that ruler ability had a sizeable bearing on the performance of states and their borders. This supports the view that ‘leaders made history,’ shaping the European map until its consolidation into nation states in the 19th century. We also show that rulers mattered only where their power was largely unconstrained. In reigns where parliaments checked the power of monarchs, ruler ability no longer affected their state’s performance. Thus, the strengthening of parliaments in Northern European states (where kin marriage of dynasties was particularly widespread) may have shielded them from the detrimental effects of inbreeding.

我们为欧洲君主创建了一个新的统治级别的数据集，涵盖了10世纪到18世纪之间所有主要的欧洲国家。我们首先证明了统治者的智力能力与国家层面的结果之间存在强烈的正相关关系。为了解决内生性问题，我们利用了以下事实:1)统治者是根据长子继承制任命的，与他们的能力无关;2)欧洲统治王朝之间广泛存在的近亲繁殖导致了统治者能力的准随机变异。我们对统治者的父母之间的血缘关系程度进行编码。“近亲繁殖系数”是统治者能力的一个强有力的预测指标，相应的工具变量结果表明，统治者的能力对国家及其边界的表现有相当大的影响。这支持了“领导者创造历史”的观点，塑造了欧洲地图，直到19世纪欧洲整合为民族国家。我们还表明，统治者只有在权力基本上不受约束的情况下才重要。在议会制约君主权力的统治下，统治者的能力不再影响国家的表现。因此，在北欧国家(王朝的近亲婚姻特别普遍)，加强议会可能保护他们免受近亲繁殖的有害影响。

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引用次数: 7

The Comprehensive Index to Evaluate the Performance of Commercial Banks 商业银行绩效评价的综合指标

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-11-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3057123

Mounzer Mourhij

This study differs from other previous studies in the field of performance evaluating, where the researcher developed a quantitative and composite index to evaluate the performance of commercial banks.
The comprehensive index takes into account a range of financial ratios related to the main objectives of the commercial Banks (profitability, liquidity and safety), and links them to reflect the actual performance compared with the planned performance, thus, the performance level is determined on a relative scale ranging from 0% to 100%.

The calculated ratio (IR) of comprehensive index shows the effectiveness and quality of performance in the commercial bank, while the remaining percentage of that ratio indicates the level of performance that needed to achieve good and acceptable objectives.

本研究不同于以往在绩效评价领域的其他研究，研究者开发了一种定量的、综合的指标来评价商业银行的绩效。综合指标考虑了与商业银行主要目标(盈利能力、流动性和安全性)相关的一系列财务比率，并将它们联系起来，以反映实际业绩与计划业绩的比较，从而在0%至100%的相对范围内确定业绩水平。综合指标的计算比率(IR)表明商业银行绩效的有效性和质量，而该比率的剩余百分比表明实现良好和可接受的目标所需的绩效水平。

引用次数: 0

History of Nigerian Accounting Practice: Progress and Contemporary Issues 尼日利亚会计实践的历史:进步和当代问题

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-11-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3726767

Jude Edeigba

This study provides the background to the Nigerian financial reporting environment and discusses the progressive journey from the Nigerian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). The analysis of the progress in Nigerian financial reporting regulation from 1957 to post IFRS adoption in 2010 is discussed in this study. Discussion of the findings follows a genealogical approach to posit development of financial reporting regulation in Nigeria. From the analysis, the time accounting was first practised in Nigeria cannot be traced to a particular date. However, the formalisation of accounting in Nigeria is discussed in this study. It was found that the regulation of accounting practice in Nigeria begins in 1957. Lastly, challenges and obstacles to accounting practice in Nigeria are discussed, particularly post IFRS adoption.

本研究提供了尼日利亚财务报告环境的背景，并讨论了从尼日利亚公认会计原则(GAAP)到采用国际财务报告准则(IFRS)的渐进之旅。本研究分析了尼日利亚财务报告法规从1957年到2010年采用国际财务报告准则后的进展。对调查结果的讨论遵循了一种谱系方法，以确定尼日利亚财务报告监管的发展。从分析来看，尼日利亚首次实行会计的时间不能追溯到一个特定的日期。然而，在本研究中讨论了尼日利亚会计的正规化。据了解，尼日利亚的会计实务监管始于1957年。最后，讨论了尼日利亚会计实践的挑战和障碍，特别是在采用国际财务报告准则后。

引用次数: 0

Undemocratic Protection for Democracy in Welfare States 福利国家对民主的不民主保护

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-11-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3729684

Kun Heo

What could go wrong if we allow democracy to be democratic about its participatory qualifications? In this paper, I explore the sustainability of fair elections when parties can propose election laws affecting ethnic minorities’ voting rights with a game-theoretical model. In an infinitely repeated probabilistic voting game with complete information, I track the choice of voters in the single special election that defines voting rights discrimination for all future elections. In this model, whether the voters vote for or against fairer elections endogenously arises from the primitives of each game. The two main questions in the paper are: 1) Can we can expect fair elections to sustain themselves and 2) Can the socio-economic advances of minority status, such as residential integration or a rise in the number of rich minorities, guarantee fairer elections? This model finds that the answer to both questions is ‘no.’ Rather, the equilibrium outcome mostly depends on the size of the redistribution from the rich to the poor. In addition, the model shows that even social progress, such as residential integration, cannot guarantee the fairer-elections outcome if the government cannot reduce the size of redistribution to a very small amount by exempting the rich from taxation, regardless of the present electoral discrimination level. Economic progress of an ethnic minority may negate such conditions only when the rich ethnic minority is substantially richer than the rich ethnic majority, given the present level of discrimination.

如果我们允许民主在其参与资格方面变得民主，会出现什么问题?本文运用博弈论模型，探讨了当政党可以提出影响少数民族选举权的选举法时，公平选举的可持续性。在一个具有完整信息的无限重复概率投票博弈中，我跟踪了一次特殊选举中选民的选择，该选举为所有未来的选举定义了投票权歧视。在这个模型中，选民是否投票支持或反对更公平的选举，是由每个博弈的原语内生地产生的。论文中的两个主要问题是:1)我们能否期望公平的选举能够自我维持? 2)少数民族地位的社会经济进步，如居民融合或富裕少数民族数量的增加，能否保证更公平的选举?这个模型发现两个问题的答案都是否定的。相反，均衡的结果主要取决于从富人到穷人的再分配规模。此外，该模型表明，如果政府不顾目前的选举歧视程度，不能通过免除富人的税收，将再分配的规模缩小到非常小的规模，即使是社会进步，如住宅一体化，也不能保证选举结果更加公平。鉴于目前的歧视程度，只有在富裕的少数民族比富裕的多数民族富裕得多的情况下，少数民族的经济进步才能消除这种条件。

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引用次数: 0

The Role of Fiscal Dependency in Political Development 财政依赖在政治发展中的作用

Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal

Pub Date : 2020-07-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3664149

Rafael A Acevedo, H. J. Faria, Hugo M. Montesinos, Carlos E. Navarro

To the best of our knowledge, the empirical corpus of work on the origins and persistence of democracy has not evaluated the impact of governments' fiscal independence from peoples' taxes on the quality of democracy. Our proxy for fiscal independence is the component 1C titled "government enterprises and investments" taken from the Economic Freedom of the World index. Component 1C measures in a given country the fraction of total investment that is supplied by the government and state-owned enterprises. A higher fraction corresponds to greater fiscal independence. The econometric analysis employing a variety of IV estimators, which includes Lewbel (2012) generated instruments, reveals a conditional negative, robust, and statistically significant effect of fiscal independence on the degree of democracy. The study also unveils a statistically and economically significant impact of fiscal independence on variables inherent to democracy, such as judicial independence and freedom of the press, as well as on human capital, a proximate determinant of democracy. These findings account for the observed heterogeneity in the potentially confounding effects of democratic rule determinants commonly used in the democratization literature. In particular, the study allows for years of education, ethno-linguistic fractionalization, the individualism-collectivism cultural trait, legal origin, risk of expropriation protection, income inequality, geographical characteristics such as latitude and availability of oil reserves, and fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity bias induced by time-invariant variables at the continent level. The evidence uncovered suggests a novel mechanism under-girding the onset, and more crucially, the persistence of democratic rule. The unveiled finding on fiscal dependency is congruous with landmark historical events such as the English Glorious Revolution as well as the tardier emergence of democracy in continental Europe. Similarly, our findings cast light on the modern heterogeneity of democratic outcomes. Specifically, results inform the flourishing Western democracies experience, and the absence or low levels of democracy among countries where governments are owners of revenue-generating companies or recipients of substantial tax revenues paid by private or state-owned corporations. Conspicuous examples of nations, with governments mostly fiscally independent, are Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

据我们所知，关于民主起源和持续的实证研究并没有评估政府财政独立于人民税收对民主质量的影响。我们对财政独立性的代表是来自世界经济自由指数的“政府、企业和投资”部分1C。成分1C衡量的是某一国家政府和国有企业在总投资中所占的比例。比例越高，财政独立性越强。采用多种IV估计器(包括Lewbel(2012)生成的工具)的计量经济学分析揭示了财政独立对民主程度的条件负向、稳健且统计显著的影响。该研究还揭示了财政独立对民主固有变量(如司法独立和新闻自由)以及人力资本(民主的直接决定因素)的统计和经济上的重大影响。这些发现解释了在民主化文献中常用的民主规则决定因素的潜在混淆效应中观察到的异质性。特别是，该研究考虑了教育年限、民族-语言分化、个人主义-集体主义文化特征、法律起源、征收保护风险、收入不平等、地理特征(如纬度和石油储量的可用性)，以及固定效应，以控制大陆层面上由时不变变量引起的未观察到的异质性偏差。发现的证据表明，一种新的机制支撑着民主统治的开始，更重要的是，这种机制支撑着民主统治的持续。公布的关于财政依赖的调查结果，与英国光荣革命(光荣革命)等具有里程碑意义的历史事件，以及欧洲大陆民主姗姗姗姗来的出现是一致的。同样，我们的研究结果揭示了现代民主结果的异质性。具体来说，研究结果揭示了发达的西方民主国家的经验，以及政府拥有创收公司或接受私人或国有企业支付的大量税收的国家缺乏民主或民主水平低下。沙特阿拉伯和委内瑞拉是政府财政基本独立的突出例子。

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引用次数: 0