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The Fall in Shadow Banking and the Slow U.S. Recovery 影子银行的衰落和美国缓慢的复苏
Pub Date : 2022-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3918148
P. Fève, Alban Moura, O. Pierrard
We argue that shocks to traditional and shadow banks were important drivers of the U.S. economy during the Great Recession and the Slow Recovery. This result follows from a DSGE model featuring a heterogeneous banking sector estimated from macroeconomic and financial observables. Our model attributes the Great Recession to negative shocks to the aggregate supply of loans. A more novel result is that a shock specific to shadow bank intermediation accounts for much of the Slow Recovery. According to our estimates, the collapse of shadow banking after the financial crisis can explain an important part of the subdued path of GDP, investment, and inflation several years into the recovery.
我们认为,在大衰退和缓慢复苏期间,对传统银行和影子银行的冲击是美国经济的重要推动力。这一结果来自一个DSGE模型,该模型以宏观经济和金融观察结果估计的异质性银行业为特征。我们的模型将大衰退归因于对贷款总供给的负面冲击。一个更新颖的结果是,影子银行中介机构特有的冲击在很大程度上造成了缓慢的复苏。根据我们的估计,金融危机后影子银行的崩溃可以解释GDP、投资和通胀在复苏几年后的低迷之路的一个重要部分。
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引用次数: 3
Leviathan's Offer: State-Building with Elite Compensation in Early Medieval China 利维坦的提议:中世纪早期中国精英补偿的国家建设
Pub Date : 2021-10-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3893130
Joy Chen, Erik H. Wang, Xiaoming Zhang
How to soften resistance to state-building efforts by reform losers? This paper highlights a strategy of compensation via the bureaucracy, in which the ruler offers meaningful government offices in exchange for elites’ acceptance of state-building reforms. We empirically explore this strategy in the context of the Northern Wei Dynasty (386 - 534 AD), which terminated an era of state weakness in early medieval China that initially resulted from entrenched landowning interests and fragile barbarian kingdoms. Our unique dataset combines geocoded family background and career histories of around 2,600 elites with information on medieval Chinese strongholds, which we use to infer state weakness. Leveraging a comprehensive state-building reform in the late 5textsuperscript{th} century, difference-in-differences estimates document that the reform led to a sustained, substantial increase in the total number of powerful aristocrats from localities with strongholds recruited into the imperial bureaucracy. Subsequent estimates provide evidence for three mechanisms through which compensation facilitates state-building. First, offices taken by these elites came with direct benefits of power and prestige. Second, by transforming these aristocrats from local powerfuls into national stakeholders, these offices potentially induced the realignment of their interests toward those of the dynasty. Third, bureaucracy provided the regime with institutional tools of power-sharing to mitigate credible commitment problems. Findings in this paper shed light on the causes of the ``First Great Divergence,’’ where similar barbarian invasions at similar times led to political fragmentation in Europe but further state consolidation in China.
如何缓和改革失败者对国家建设努力的抵制?本文强调了一种通过官僚机构进行补偿的策略,即统治者提供有意义的政府职位,以换取精英们接受国家建设改革。我们在北魏(公元386 - 534年)的背景下对这一策略进行了实证研究,北魏结束了中世纪早期中国的一个国家软弱的时代,这个时代最初是由根深蒂固的土地利益和脆弱的蛮族王国造成的。我们独特的数据集结合了大约2600名精英的地理编码家庭背景和职业历史,以及中世纪中国据点的信息,我们用这些信息来推断国家的弱点。利用5世纪末全面的国家建设改革,差中的差估计表明,改革导致了强大的贵族总数的持续大幅增加,这些贵族来自有据点的地方,被招募到帝国官僚机构中。随后的估计为补偿促进国家建设的三种机制提供了证据。首先,这些精英担任公职带来了权力和声望的直接好处。其次,通过将这些贵族从地方权贵转变为国家利益相关者,这些职位可能会促使他们的利益向王朝的利益重新调整。第三,官僚体制为政权提供了权力分享的制度性工具,以缓解可信承诺问题。本文的研究结果揭示了“第一次大分化”的原因,即在类似的时间,类似的野蛮入侵导致了欧洲的政治分裂,但进一步巩固了中国的国家。
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引用次数: 1
Assessing the double materiality of climate risks in the EU economy and banking sector 评估欧盟经济和银行业气候风险的双重重要性
Pub Date : 2021-10-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3939895
Régis Gourdel, I. Monasterolo, Nepomuk Dunz, Andrea Mazzocchetti, L. Parisi
Financial supervisors and policy makers, including the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), have recognized the existence of a double feedback between climate change and the financial system, i.e. the impact of climate risks on financial stability, and the impact of financial institutions on climate scenarios. This feedback loop is known as the "double materiality of climate risks". While recent studies contributed to understand the macro-financial relevance of climate scenarios, a methodological framework to assess the double materiality of climate risks is not available yet. We contribute to fill this gap by developing a dynamic climate assessment of NGFS climate physical and transition risks scenarios, for of the euro area economy and banking sector. By tailoring the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent model, we quantitatively assess the feedback from banks’ expectations about investment risk across NGFS scenarios and risk internalization (i.e. their climate sentiments), on (i) firms’ capital costs and performance, (ii) the decarbonization of the economy and banks’ lending portfolios, and (iii) the realization of climate mitigation scenarios. We find that, under the model conditions, an orderly transition achieves important co-benefits already in the mid-term, with respect to CO2 emissions abatement, banks’ financial stability and distributive effects. In contrast, a disorderly transition fosters banks’ financial instability. This, in turn, leads to indirect, spillover effects to the economy, affecting firms’ ability to invest in the low-carbon transition, fostering the realization of stranded assets, and increasing households’ inequality. Second, investors’ climate sentiments can affect climate policy effectiveness. Banks’ early adjustment of the cost of capital to reflect firms’ exposure to climate risks leads to alternative transition pathways, costs and co-benefits. Our results highlight the importance for financial supervisors to consider the role of investors’ expectations in the finance-economy-climate feedback, in order to design appropriate macroprudential policies for tackling climate risks.
包括绿色金融体系网络(NGFS)在内的金融监管机构和政策制定者已经认识到气候变化和金融体系之间存在双重反馈,即气候风险对金融稳定的影响,以及金融机构对气候情景的影响。这种反馈循环被称为“气候风险的双重重要性”。虽然最近的研究有助于了解气候情景的宏观金融相关性,但目前还没有评估气候风险双重重要性的方法框架。我们通过对欧元区经济和银行业的NGFS气候物理和转型风险情景进行动态气候评估,为填补这一空白做出贡献。通过调整EIRIN库存流量一致性模型,我们定量评估了银行对NGFS情景和风险内部化(即他们的气候情绪)的投资风险预期、对(i)企业资本成本和绩效、(ii)经济脱碳和银行贷款组合以及(iii)气候减缓情景实现的反馈。我们发现,在模型条件下,在二氧化碳减排、银行金融稳定性和分配效应方面,有序转型已经在中期实现了重要的协同效益。相反,无序的过渡会助长银行的金融不稳定。这反过来又会对经济产生间接的溢出效应,影响企业投资低碳转型的能力,促进搁浅资产的实现,并加剧家庭的不平等。其次,投资者的气候情绪会影响气候政策的有效性。银行对资本成本的早期调整,以反映企业对气候风险的敞口,导致了替代的转型途径、成本和协同效益。我们的研究结果强调了金融监管机构考虑投资者预期在金融-经济-气候反馈中的作用的重要性,以便设计适当的宏观审慎政策来应对气候风险。
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引用次数: 4
Local Journalism under Private Equity Ownership 私募股权下的地方新闻业
Pub Date : 2021-10-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3939405
M. Ewens, Arpita Gupta, Sabrina T. Howell
Local daily newspapers have historically played an important role in U.S. democracy by providing citizens with information about local policy issues. However, in recent decades local newspapers have struggled to compete with new online platforms for readers’ attention. Private equity investors—who specialize in reorganizing struggling firms in distressed sectors—have entered the industry. How do these new owners affect newspaper content, survival, and local civic engagement? We document nuanced effects, contrasting with the polarized debate on this topic in the media and political discourse. On one hand, we find that private equity ownership leads to higher digital circulation and lower chances of newspaper exit. On the other hand, we document a change in news composition away from information about local governance, and lower employment of reporters and editors. Finally, we find declines in participation in local elections, consistent with local newspaper content being relevant for civic engagement. The results have implications for knowledge about local policy issues and highlight trade-offs surrounding media ownership.
地方日报历来通过向公民提供有关地方政策问题的信息,在美国民主中发挥了重要作用。然而,近几十年来,地方报纸一直难以与新的在线平台竞争读者的注意力。私募股权投资者已经进入了这个行业,他们擅长重组陷入困境的公司。这些新东家如何影响报纸内容、生存和当地公民参与?我们记录了细微的影响,与媒体和政治话语中关于这一主题的两极分化辩论形成对比。一方面,我们发现私募股权导致数字发行量增加,报纸退出的可能性降低。另一方面,我们记录了新闻构成的变化,远离关于地方治理的信息,记者和编辑的就业率下降。最后,我们发现参与地方选举的人数有所下降,这与地方报纸内容与公民参与相关是一致的。研究结果对了解地方政策问题有启示,并突出了围绕媒体所有权的权衡。
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引用次数: 10
Is Flood Risk Priced in Bank Returns? 洪水风险是否反映在银行收益中?
Pub Date : 2021-09-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3933031
Valentin Schubert
Climate change related disasters are projected to increase considerably over our lifetime, and storms and floods cause the highest financial damages. Using a comprehensive future flood risk measure matched to bank holding companies in the United States, I find that a higher exposure to future flood risk results in higher excess returns. This is consistent with the interpretation that investors demand compensation for their increased risk exposure. The result is stronger for smaller and less levered banks. Furthermore, I construct a flood risk factor from bank returns that cannot be entirely explained by the conventional bank risk factors. And, I show that the flood risk factor can explain up to 30% of the variance of bank stock returns.
与气候变化相关的灾害预计将在我们的一生中大幅增加,风暴和洪水造成的经济损失最大。使用与美国银行控股公司相匹配的综合未来洪水风险度量,我发现对未来洪水风险的较高暴露导致较高的超额回报。这与投资者要求对其增加的风险敞口进行补偿的解释是一致的。对规模较小、杠杆率较低的银行来说,结果更为明显。此外,我从银行收益中构建了一个洪水风险因子,这不能完全由传统的银行风险因子来解释。并且,我证明了洪水风险因素可以解释银行股票收益高达30%的方差。
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引用次数: 1
The Professionalization of Financial Planning in Australia: an Institutional Logics Perspective 澳大利亚财务规划专业化:制度逻辑视角
Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.1108/jpbafm-11-2020-0182
Daniel W. Richards, Sarath Lal Ukwatte Jalathge, Prem W. Senarath Yapa
PurposeThis paper researches the professionalization of financial planning in Australia. The authors investigate how the institutional logic of major institutions inhibits this occupation from moving toward a professional status.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses documentary analysis of government inquiries into Australian financial services from 1997 to 2017 to ascertain the various institutional logics relating to the professionalization of financial planning. The method involves generating ideas from the data and applying an institutional logic framework to make sense of impediments to the professionalization of financial planning in Australia.FindingsThe regulator adopted a self-regulation logic that empowered financial institutions to govern financial advice. These financial institutions have a logic of profit maximization that creates conflicts of interest in financial planning. The financial planning professional bodies adopted a logic of attracting and retaining members due to a competitive professional environment. Thus, financial planners have not been defined as fiduciaries, professional standards have not increased and an ineffective disciplinary resolution system exists.Research limitations/implicationsThis research illustrates the various institutional logics that need to be addressed to professionalize financial planning in Australia. However, the data used is limited to that drawn from the parliamentary inquiries.Originality/valuePrior research on the emergence of professions such as accounting has shown that financial institutions are sites of professionalization. This research shows that financial institutions impede professionalization in financial planning. Also, where the state granted legitimacy to other professions, this research indicates that the state regulator's logic of self-regulation has not legitimized financial planning.
目的研究澳大利亚的理财专业化。作者调查了主要机构的制度逻辑是如何阻碍这一职业走向专业地位的。设计/方法/方法本研究使用了1997年至2017年政府对澳大利亚金融服务调查的文献分析,以确定与财务规划专业化相关的各种制度逻辑。该方法包括从数据中产生想法,并应用制度逻辑框架来理解澳大利亚财务规划专业化的障碍。监管机构采用了一种自我监管的逻辑,赋予金融机构管理金融咨询的权力。这些金融机构有一个利润最大化的逻辑,在财务规划中产生了利益冲突。由于竞争激烈的专业环境,理财专业团体采取了吸引和留住成员的逻辑。因此,财务规划师没有被定义为受托人,专业标准没有提高,存在无效的纪律决议制度。研究的局限性/意义本研究说明了在澳大利亚实现财务规划专业化需要解决的各种制度逻辑。然而,所使用的数据仅限于从议会调查中获得的数据。先前对会计等职业出现的研究表明,金融机构是专业化的场所。本研究表明,金融机构阻碍了理财专业化。此外,在国家赋予其他职业合法性的情况下,本研究表明,国家监管机构的自我监管逻辑并没有使财务规划合法化。
{"title":"The Professionalization of Financial Planning in Australia: an Institutional Logics Perspective","authors":"Daniel W. Richards, Sarath Lal Ukwatte Jalathge, Prem W. Senarath Yapa","doi":"10.1108/jpbafm-11-2020-0182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jpbafm-11-2020-0182","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper researches the professionalization of financial planning in Australia. The authors investigate how the institutional logic of major institutions inhibits this occupation from moving toward a professional status.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses documentary analysis of government inquiries into Australian financial services from 1997 to 2017 to ascertain the various institutional logics relating to the professionalization of financial planning. The method involves generating ideas from the data and applying an institutional logic framework to make sense of impediments to the professionalization of financial planning in Australia.FindingsThe regulator adopted a self-regulation logic that empowered financial institutions to govern financial advice. These financial institutions have a logic of profit maximization that creates conflicts of interest in financial planning. The financial planning professional bodies adopted a logic of attracting and retaining members due to a competitive professional environment. Thus, financial planners have not been defined as fiduciaries, professional standards have not increased and an ineffective disciplinary resolution system exists.Research limitations/implicationsThis research illustrates the various institutional logics that need to be addressed to professionalize financial planning in Australia. However, the data used is limited to that drawn from the parliamentary inquiries.Originality/valuePrior research on the emergence of professions such as accounting has shown that financial institutions are sites of professionalization. This research shows that financial institutions impede professionalization in financial planning. Also, where the state granted legitimacy to other professions, this research indicates that the state regulator's logic of self-regulation has not legitimized financial planning.","PeriodicalId":443031,"journal":{"name":"Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124170406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
A Banking System That Facilitates Wealth Transfer Rather Than Wealth Creation 促进财富转移而非创造财富的银行体系
Pub Date : 2021-09-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3920022
S. Savvides
The paper suggests that concentration of money and a loosely regulated financial market as the main culprits impeding the efficient allocation of economic resources through a banking system that seems to have lost its way and mission. The pursuit of return without risk inevitably leads to the transfer of wealth through a failing banking system which collaborates with hedge funds and global wealth management groups who constantly pursue low risk and high returns for the benefit of their wealthy clients.
这篇论文认为,货币集中和监管松散的金融市场是阻碍经济资源通过似乎已经迷失方向和使命的银行体系进行有效配置的主要罪魁祸首。追求无风险的回报不可避免地导致财富通过一个失败的银行体系转移,这个体系与对冲基金和全球财富管理集团合作,后者不断追求低风险和高回报,以造福其富有客户。
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引用次数: 0
Liquidity Provision and Co-Insurance in Bank Syndicates 银团的流动资金供应及共同保险
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.060
Kevin Kiernan, Vladimir Yankov, Filip Žikeš
We study the capacity of the banking system to provide liquidity to the corporate sector in times of stress and how changes in this capacity affect corporate liquidity management. We show that the contractual arrangements among banks in loan syndicates co-insure liquidity risks of credit line drawdowns and generate a network of interbank exposures. We develop a simple model and simulate the liquidity and insurance capacity of the banking network. We find that the liquidity capacity of large banks has significantly increased following the introduction of liquidity regulation, and that the liquidity co-insurance function in loan syndicates is economically important. We also find that borrowers with higher reliance on credit lines in their liquidity management have become more likely to obtain credit lines from syndicates with higher liquidity. The assortative matching on liquidity characteristics has strengthened the role of banks as liquidity providers to the corporate sector.
我们研究了银行系统在压力时期向企业部门提供流动性的能力,以及这种能力的变化如何影响企业流动性管理。我们表明,贷款银团中银行之间的合同安排共同保证了信贷额度提取的流动性风险,并产生了银行间风险网络。我们建立了一个简单的模型,模拟了银行网络的流动性和保险能力。我们发现,在引入流动性监管后,大型银行的流动性能力显著增加,并且银团中的流动性共同保险功能具有重要的经济意义。我们还发现,在流动性管理中对信贷额度依赖程度较高的借款人更有可能从流动性较高的银团获得信贷额度。流动性特征的分类匹配强化了银行作为企业部门流动性提供者的作用。
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引用次数: 2
Political Uncertainty and Asset Prices: Evidence from Hong Kong Political Crisis 政治不确定性与资产价格:来自香港政治危机的证据
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3939781
Xing Xiao, Mengfan Yin, Ning Zhang
Triggered by the Hong Kong government’s action to amend the extradition law, the political crisis happened in Hong Kong, raising substantial local political uncertainty during the second half year of 2019. Measuring the daily political uncertainty shocks by the violence intensity reported by the local newspapers, we document that Hong Kong stock prices drop more on the days with higher political uncertainty, especially for the firms with higher political risk exposures. By focusing on the AH dual-listed stocks and comparing the differential effect of the political uncertainty on their returns in Hong Kong and Mainland China stock market, we find that stock prices in Hong Kong are much more negatively affected by the political uncertainty than the counterparts in Mainland China, though they have same fundamentals. By further ruling out the expected cash flow effect, our results provide evidence that political uncertainty influence asset prices through the discount rate effect. Utilizing the Stock Connect Programs to proxy for the exposure to investors in the other market, we show that the political uncertainty effect on A shares is more negative for the stocks with higher exposure to foreign investors, while the effect on H shares is less negative for the stocks with higher exposure to mainland investors.
由香港政府修改《引渡法》引发的香港政治危机,在2019年下半年给当地政治带来了很大的不确定性。以香港本地报纸报道的暴力强度衡量每日的政治不确定性冲击,我们发现香港股票价格在政治不确定性较高的日子下跌更多,特别是对于具有较高政治风险敞口的公司。以AH两地上市的股票为研究对象,比较政治不确定性对香港和内地股市收益的差异效应,我们发现,尽管香港股市和内地股市基本面相同,但香港股市受政治不确定性的负面影响要比内地股市大得多。通过进一步排除预期现金流效应,我们的结果提供了政治不确定性通过贴现率效应影响资产价格的证据。利用沪港通项目来代表其他市场投资者的风险敞口,我们发现政治不确定性对A股的负面影响对于外国投资者敞口较高的股票更为显著,而对H股的负面影响对于内地投资者敞口较高的股票则较小。
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引用次数: 0
Disrespect as the Essence of Constitutional Right Violations 不尊重:宪法权利侵犯的实质
Pub Date : 2021-08-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3913654
Rosalind J Wright
This Article presents a simple, broad-sweeping, unifying account of the underlying logic and limits of the important constitutional rights. The underlying logic of constitutional rights turns out to be a matter of respect and disrespect. The essential focus of this account is thus on the idea of respect, and often more incisively, on the idea of disrespect. Certainly, no single idea can fully account for all phases of all constitutional rights. But the idea of respect, and of disrespect in particular, can aptly describe much of the territory of the most important constitutional rights, whether the rights in question are officially acknowledged, or as yet unacknowledged. It is certainly true that many of the harms associated with constitutional rights violations are not entirely reducible to matters of respect and disrespect. And certainly, constitutional protection of particular rights may serve a variety of purposes, not all of which are fully expressed in terms of fundamental respect and disrespect. The recognition, the threshold enforcement, and the eventual limitation of constitutional rights is in this sense inevitably pluralistic. The argument herein, though, is that considerations of respect and disrespect, in a fundamental sense, generally structure and make distinctive sense of the pluralism of constitutional rights.
本文对这些重要宪法权利的基本逻辑和限制进行了简单、全面、统一的阐述。宪法权利的基本逻辑原来是尊重和不尊重的问题。因此,这本书的重点是关于尊重的概念,更深刻地说,是关于不尊重的概念。当然,没有一个单一的概念可以完全解释所有宪法权利的所有阶段。但是,尊重的概念,特别是不尊重的概念,可以恰当地描述最重要的宪法权利的许多领域,无论这些权利是得到官方承认的,还是尚未得到承认的。当然,与侵犯宪法权利有关的许多伤害不能完全归结为尊重和不尊重的问题。当然,宪法对特定权利的保护可能有各种各样的目的,并不是所有的目的都充分体现在基本的尊重和不尊重方面。在这个意义上,宪法权利的承认、阈值执行和最终限制都不可避免地具有多元性。然而,这里的论点是,从基本意义上讲,对尊重和不尊重的考虑通常构成了宪法权利的多元化,并使其具有独特的意义。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Economy - Development: Political Institutions eJournal
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