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Dealing with endogeneity in risk analysis within the stochastic frontier approach in agricultural economics: A scoping review 在农业经济学随机前沿方法中处理风险分析中的内生性:范围综述
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.36253/bae-13516
Simone Russo, Lerato Phali, M. Prosperi
Literature on farm productivity and efficiency was reviewed using a scoping review methodology, focusing on studies that have included risk and risk management tools within the stochastic frontier analysis in agricultural economics. This study contributes to investigating the methods used to account for endogeneity by using a risk-accommodating stochastic frontier approach when analysing farmers’ performance. Despite the increasing methodologies proposed in the literature, only a few studies have treated endogeneity in farm risk-performance evaluations. According to our findings, it can be concluded that there is a literature gap regarding the adoption of a comprehensive approach capable of dealing with endogeneity when assessing farm performances. Endogeneity and risk issues need to be concurrently addressed to make strides in achieving economic and environmental sustainability. Neglecting endogeneity in these analyses may lead to biased estimates and thus inappropriate policy recommendations failing to boost the productivity and technical efficiency of farmers.
使用范围审查方法对有关农业生产力和效率的文献进行了审查,重点是在农业经济学随机前沿分析中包括风险和风险管理工具的研究。本研究有助于研究在分析农民绩效时使用风险适应随机前沿方法来解释内生性的方法。尽管文献中提出了越来越多的方法,但只有少数研究处理了农场风险绩效评估中的内生性。根据我们的研究结果,可以得出结论,在评估农场绩效时,采用能够处理内生性的综合方法存在文献缺口。内生性和风险问题需要同时处理,以便在实现经济和环境可持续性方面取得进展。在这些分析中忽视内生性可能导致有偏见的估计,从而导致不适当的政策建议未能提高农民的生产力和技术效率。
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引用次数: 0
Vulnerability and resilience to food and nutrition insecurity: A review of the literature towards a unified framework 粮食和营养不安全的脆弱性和复原力:对统一框架的文献综述
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.36253/bae-14125
P. Montalbano, D. Romano
Current approaches to measuring food and nutrition security (FNS) mainly consider past access to food, while assessing vulnerability and resilience to food insecurity requires a dynamic setting and sound predictive models, conditional to the entire set of food-related multiple-scale shocks and stresses as well as households’ characteristics. The aim of this work is twofold: i) to review the state of the relevant literature on the conceptualization and the empirical measurement of vulnerability and resilience to food insecurity; ii) to frame the main coordinates of a possible unifying framework aiming at improving ex-ante targeting of policy interventions and resilience-enhancing programs. Our argument is that clarifying the relationships existing between vulnerability and resilience provides a better understanding and a more comprehensive picture of food insecurity that includes higher-order conditional moments and non-linearities. Furthermore, adopting the proposed unified framework, one can derive FNS measures that are: scalable and aggregable into higher-level dimensions (scale axiom); inherently dynamic (time axiom); conditioned to various factors (access axiom); applicable to various measures of food and nutrition as dependent variables (outcomes axiom). Unfortunately, the proposed unified framework shows some limitations. First, estimating conditional moments is highly data-demanding, requiring high-quality and high-frequency micro-level panel data for all the relevant FNS dimensions, not mentioning the difficulty of measuring risks/shocks and their associated probabilities using short panel data. Hence, there is a general issue of applicability of the proposed approach to typically data-scarce environments such as developing contexts. Second, there is an inherent tradeoff between the proposed approach in-sample precision and out-of-sample predictive performance. This is key to implement effective early warning systems and foster resilience-building programs.
目前衡量粮食和营养安全(FNS)的方法主要考虑过去的粮食获取情况,而评估对粮食不安全的脆弱性和恢复力需要一个动态环境和健全的预测模型,并以与粮食有关的全套多尺度冲击和压力以及家庭特征为条件。这项工作的目的是双重的:i)回顾有关粮食不安全脆弱性和恢复力的概念化和实证测量的相关文献的现状;Ii)构建一个可能的统一框架的主要坐标,旨在改善政策干预和增强韧性计划的事前目标。我们的观点是,澄清脆弱性和恢复力之间存在的关系可以更好地理解和更全面地了解粮食不安全,包括高阶条件矩和非线性。此外,采用所提出的统一框架,可以推导出以下FNS度量:可扩展和可聚合到更高层次的维度(尺度公理);内在动态(时间公理);受各种因素制约(存取公理);适用于作为因变量的食物和营养的各种测量(结果公理)。不幸的是,提出的统一框架显示出一些局限性。首先,估计条件矩对数据要求很高,需要所有相关FNS维度的高质量和高频微观水平面板数据,更不用说使用短面板数据测量风险/冲击及其相关概率的难度。因此,所建议的方法是否适用于典型的数据稀缺环境(如开发环境)是一个普遍的问题。其次,所提出的方法在样本内精度和样本外预测性能之间存在固有的权衡。这是实施有效预警系统和促进复原力建设项目的关键。
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引用次数: 0
The local economic impact of climate change mitigation in agriculture 减缓气候变化对农业的地方经济影响
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.36253/bae-13289
C. Geoghegan, C. O’Donoghue, Jason Loughrey
Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures are currently being implemented in the agricultural sector across the globe. Questions have been raised about the distributional and spatial impacts of agricultural emissions mitigation policies, especially at the local level. This study examines the local impact of a low-income farming sector, beef farming, in a typical Irish beef farming county, County Clare. Input-output analysis reveals that Clare beef farmers purchase the vast majority of farm inputs within the county, with intra-county suppliers providing 90% of their inputs and overheads. We examine the impact of reducing the size of the beef herd in Co. Clare as a direct consequence of meeting national GHG emissions targets by 2030. Taking direct, indirect, and induced effects together, there is an €18.4 million reduction in economic activity in 2030 following the decrease in the beef herd with €14.72 million of that reduction taking place within the Mid-West region.
温室气体(GHG)缓解措施目前正在全球农业部门实施。对于农业减排政策的分布和空间影响,特别是在地方一级的影响,提出了一些问题。本研究考察了一个低收入农业部门的地方影响,牛肉养殖,在一个典型的爱尔兰牛肉养殖县,克莱尔县。投入产出分析显示,克莱尔肉牛养殖户在郡内购买了绝大多数农场投入,郡内供应商提供了90%的投入和间接费用。我们研究了减少克莱尔公司肉牛群规模的影响,这是到2030年实现国家温室气体排放目标的直接后果。综合考虑直接、间接和诱导效应,到2030年,随着牛肉存畜量的减少,经济活动减少了1840万欧元,其中1472万欧元的减少发生在中西部地区。
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引用次数: 0
Provision of public goods and bads by agriculture and forestry. An analysis of stakeholders’ perception of factors, issues and mechanisms 农业和林业提供的公共物品和公共物品。利益相关者对因素、问题和机制的认知分析
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.36253/bae-12843
S. Targetti, V. Marconi, M. Raggi, A. Piorr, Anastacio José Villanueva, Kati Häfner, M. Kurttila, N. Letki, M. Costica, D. Nikolov, D. Viaggi
The provision of public goods by agriculture and forestry has been a major topic of the agricultural policy debate in the EU. The objective of this paper is to investigate local stakeholder perceptions regarding the cause-effect relations between agriculture and forestry activities and a broad set of public goods and bads, and hence to contribute to the identification of improved policy options for a more efficient delivery of public goods from rural areas. The study presents an assessment based on 71 stakeholder questionnaires collected from seven case study regions in different EU countries. The survey was based on a list of the most relevant public goods and bads developed with the local stakeholders, and aimed to collect stakeholder perception of positive and negative impacts of agriculture and forestry on a range of environmental assets and their relationship with local drivers, socio-economic and cultural features, and policy mechanisms. The analysis shows that the role of agriculture and forestry in the provision of public goods is perceived as generally positive across the selected case study regions. Stakeholder opinions concerning the negative impacts on the environment were more divergent. In particular, differences regarding the impact of different socio-economic and cultural features, and policy mechanisms are evidenced. The results outline the importance of regulations. Also, payments for environmental services are considered relevant in particular for biodiversity, landscape, and water quality. Beside that, aspects such as expectations of society and the attitude of farmers towards the environment resulted noteworthy.
农业和林业提供公共产品一直是欧盟农业政策辩论的一个主要话题。本文的目的是调查当地利益相关者对农业和林业活动与一系列广泛的公共产品和不良产品之间的因果关系的看法,从而有助于确定改进的政策选择,以便更有效地从农村地区提供公共产品。该研究基于从不同欧盟国家的七个案例研究区域收集的71份利益相关者问卷进行了评估。该调查基于与当地利益相关者共同制定的最相关的公共利益和公共利益清单,旨在收集利益相关者对农业和林业对一系列环境资产的积极和消极影响的看法,以及它们与当地驱动因素、社会经济和文化特征以及政策机制的关系。分析表明,选定的案例研究区域普遍认为农业和林业在提供公共产品方面的作用是积极的。利益相关者对环境负面影响的意见分歧较大。特别是,不同社会经济和文化特征以及政策机制的影响存在差异。研究结果表明了监管的重要性。此外,环境服务的付款被认为与生物多样性、景观和水质特别相关。除此之外,社会期望和农民对环境的态度等方面也引起了关注。
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引用次数: 0
Systems Thinking, Mapping and Change in Food and Agriculture 粮食和农业的系统思考、制图和变化
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-03 DOI: 10.36253/bae-13930
D. Dentoni, C. Cucchi, Marija Roglic, R. Lubberink, Rahmin Bender-Salazar, Timothy Manyise
Societal actors across scales and geographies increasingly demand visual applications of systems thinking – the process of understanding and changing the reality of a system by considering its whole set of interdependencies – to address complex problems affecting food and agriculture. Yet, despite the wide offer of systems mapping tools, there is still little guidance for managers, policy-makers, civil society and changemakers in food and agriculture on how to choose, combine and use these tools on the basis of a sufficiently deep understanding of socio-ecological systems. Unfortunately, actors seeking to address complex problems with inadequate understandings of systems often have limited influence on the socio-ecological systems they inhabit, and sometimes even generate unintended negative consequences. Hence, we first review, discuss and exemplify seven key features of systems that should be – but rarely have been – incorporated in strategic decisions in the agri-food sector: interdependency, level-multiplicity, dynamism, path dependency, self-organization, non-linearity and complex causality. Second, on the basis of these features, we propose a collective process to systems mapping that grounds on the notion that the configuration of problems (i.e., how multiple issues entangle with each other) and the configuration of actors (i.e., how multiple actors relate to each other and share resources) represent two sides of the same coin. Third, we provide implications for societal actors - including decision-makers, trainers and facilitators - using systems mapping to trigger or accelerate systems change in five purposive ways: targeting multiple goals; generating ripple effects; mitigating unintended consequences; tackling systemic constraints, and collaborating with unconventional partners.
不同规模和地域的社会行动者越来越需要系统思维的视觉应用——通过考虑系统的全部相互依赖关系来理解和改变系统现实的过程——以解决影响粮食和农业的复杂问题。然而,尽管提供了广泛的系统绘图工具,但在充分了解社会生态系统的基础上,对粮食和农业领域的管理者、决策者、民间社会和变革者如何选择、组合和使用这些工具的指导仍然很少。不幸的是,试图解决复杂问题但对系统理解不足的行为体往往对其所处的社会生态系统影响有限,有时甚至会产生意想不到的负面后果。因此,我们首先回顾、讨论并举例说明了应该(但很少)纳入农业食品部门战略决策的系统的七个关键特征:相互依赖性、水平多样性、动态性、路径依赖性、自组织、非线性和复杂因果关系。其次,在这些特征的基础上,我们提出了一个系统映射的集体过程,该过程基于这样的概念,即问题的配置(即多个问题如何相互纠缠)和参与者的配置(即多个参与者如何相互关联并共享资源)代表同一枚硬币的两面。第三,我们为社会行为者(包括决策者、培训师和促进者)提供了启示,利用系统映射以五种有目的的方式触发或加速系统变化:针对多个目标;产生涟漪效应的;减轻意外后果;解决系统性限制,与非传统合作伙伴合作。
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引用次数: 2
Bio-based Business Models: specific and general learnings from recent good practice cases in different business sectors 基于生物的商业模式:从不同商业部门最近的良好实践案例中具体和一般的学习
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.36253/bae-10820
N. Hatvani, M. J. Van den Oever, Kornel Mateffy, Akos Koos
Business models can be a perfect tool to meet the challenges in highlighting the competitiveness and sustainability potential of bio-based solutions, and facilitating primary producers to benefit from the opportunities offered by bioeconomy. In this work six concrete bio-based good practices that have succeeded in progressing from early ideas to products on the market were analysed. These examples pose new insights that can be used by a wide range of experts and stakeholders for the analysis of benefits and challenges of value chains in the bio-based economy sectors. It is concluded that the traditional Business Model Canvas needs to be extended with additional factors related to sustainability and business ecosystem. In order to establish a practical framework promoting economic viability of bio-based business cases, the importance is highlighted for adjusting the exclusive focus on Technology Readiness Levels by introducing levels reflecting business or market readiness.
商业模式是应对挑战的完美工具,可以突出生物基解决方案的竞争力和可持续性潜力,并促进初级生产者从生物经济提供的机会中受益。在这项工作中,分析了六个具体的基于生物的良好做法,这些做法已经成功地从早期的想法发展到市场上的产品。这些例子提出了新的见解,可供广泛的专家和利益相关者用于分析生物经济部门价值链的利益和挑战。结论是,传统的商业模式画布需要与可持续性和商业生态系统相关的其他因素进行扩展。为了建立一个促进生物基商业案例经济可行性的实用框架,通过引入反映商业或市场准备程度的水平来调整对技术准备水平的独家关注是非常重要的。
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引用次数: 1
The role of network characteristics of the innovation spreaders in agriculture 网络特征对农业创新传播者的作用
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.36253/bae-9932
A. Lopolito, A. Barbuto, F. Santeramo
The diffusion of innovations is largely influenced by the characteristics of the network of initial adopters (or innovation spreader). We investigate how these characteristics tend to influence the adoption rate and the speed of the diffusion process of a technological innovation in agriculture. The diffusion process is simulated through an Agent Based Model that replicates real-world data. We found that the closeness and the clusterization of the networks are the variables that tend to affect the most the capability of spreading innovations among members. Our findings have direct policy implications: since innovations help advancing the economic development of the agricultural sector, promoting the emergence of networks that have desirable characteristics would enhance growth. Our analysis provides specific insights on how to plan networks with desirable characteristics for the innovation spreaders.
创新的扩散在很大程度上受初始采用者(或创新传播者)网络特征的影响。我们研究了这些特征如何影响农业技术创新的采用率和扩散过程的速度。扩散过程通过一个基于Agent的模型来模拟,该模型复制了真实世界的数据。我们发现,网络的紧密性和集群性是影响创新在成员间传播能力的最大变量。我们的研究结果具有直接的政策意义:由于创新有助于推动农业部门的经济发展,因此促进具有理想特征的网络的出现将促进增长。我们的分析为如何为创新传播者规划具有理想特征的网络提供了具体的见解。
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引用次数: 1
Food loss and waste accounting: the case of the Philippine food supply chain 粮食损失和浪费核算:菲律宾食品供应链的案例
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.36253/bae-11501
Anieluz Pastolero, M. Sassi
In recent years, the interest in food loss and waste has been gaining momentum from researchers and policy-makers. Much of the attention on the matter is centered in industrialized countries, creating a knowledge gap within developing countries, among which is the Philippines. This lack of information impedes the country-level response in solving the issue, whose implications extend to food and nutrition security, productivity, and resource use. For this reason, our paper estimates the food loss and waste levels in the Philippine food supply chain of rice, corn, and banana commodities. We were first to identify the percentage accumulation of food loss and waste in each stage of the food supply chain and translated such portions into edible food volumes initially intended for human consumption. Our findings revealed that between one-seventh to one-fifth of edible rice, corn, and banana quantities are lost/wasted in their respective food supply chains. For each of the commodities analyzed, the principal activities responsible for the problem are drying, dehanding, and harvesting, respectively. Our results suggest the following for policy intervention and research: establish an agreed-upon food loss and waste definition; calibrate interventions at the level of the food supply chain; follow a supply chain system approach in reducing the problem; and determine an acceptable level of loss/waste.
近年来,研究人员和决策者对粮食损失和浪费的兴趣日益浓厚。对这一问题的关注主要集中在工业化国家,在发展中国家内部造成了知识差距,菲律宾就是其中之一。这种信息的缺乏阻碍了国家一级解决这一问题的反应,这一问题的影响延伸到粮食和营养安全、生产力和资源利用。因此,我们的论文估计了菲律宾粮食供应链中大米、玉米和香蕉商品的粮食损失和浪费水平。我们首先确定了食品供应链中每个阶段食物损失和浪费的累积百分比,并将这些部分转化为最初供人类食用的可食用食物量。我们的研究结果显示,在各自的食品供应链中,有七分之一到五分之一的可食用大米、玉米和香蕉被损失或浪费。对于所分析的每一种商品,造成这一问题的主要活动分别是干燥、脱毛和收获。我们的研究结果为政策干预和研究提供了以下建议:建立一个公认的粮食损失和浪费定义;在食品供应链层面调整干预措施;遵循供应链系统方法来减少问题;确定可接受的损失/浪费水平。
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引用次数: 0
Price dependence of biofuels and agricultural products on selected examples 生物燃料和农产品的价格依赖(以选定的例子为例)
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.36253/bae-9753
W. Sobczak, J. Gołębiewski
The growing demand for raw materials for the production of biofuels may lead to an increase in the prices of these raw materials and, due to the shortage of land, to an increase in the prices of other crops. This is due to the fact that the growing demand for raw materials for the production of methyl esters and bioethanol (the most widely used biofuels), such as rape and corn, is a form of competition on the food and feed markets. It should be mentioned that although the topic is not new, it is still very relevant, taking into account the expansion of energy crops, as well as national, European and world energy policy. Especially due to the fact that, as has already been mentioned, the use of plant products for the production of biofuels has an impact on the regulations of the food market.This study is to analyze the volatility and dependence of ethanol, biodiesel, maize and rapeseed prices in the period of 2016-2019 and aims at assessing the correlation between the agricultural and biofuel markets. In this paper, the investigation regarding co-integration of biofuel and agricultural commodity prices has utilized ethanol and commodity prices with the use of the vector error correction model (VECM). Price dependencies between the prices of biodiesel, rapeseed, maize and ethanol were found, indicating the existence of long-term causality in at least one direction between the analyzed prices. The results indicated that biodiesel prices during the period in question were influenced by the previous week’s prices of biofuel and rapeseed. Moreover, biodiesel prices had an impact on the level of ethanol and rapeseed prices. In the case of rapeseed, the correlation between its prices and those of corn is also noticeable, while prices of corn may also affect prices of ethanol.
生产生物燃料对原材料的需求不断增长,可能导致这些原材料的价格上涨,并且由于土地短缺,导致其他作物的价格上涨。这是由于对生产甲酯和生物乙醇(最广泛使用的生物燃料)的原材料的需求不断增长,如油菜和玉米,是食品和饲料市场上的一种竞争形式。应该提到的是,虽然这个话题并不新鲜,但考虑到能源作物的扩大,以及国家、欧洲和世界的能源政策,它仍然非常相关。特别是因为,正如已经提到的那样,使用植物产品生产生物燃料对粮食市场的法规产生了影响。本研究旨在分析2016-2019年期间乙醇、生物柴油、玉米和油菜籽价格的波动性和依赖性,旨在评估农业和生物燃料市场之间的相关性。在本文中,关于生物燃料和农产品价格协整的调查利用乙醇和商品价格与使用向量误差修正模型(VECM)。发现生物柴油、油菜籽、玉米和乙醇的价格之间存在价格依赖关系,表明所分析的价格之间至少在一个方向上存在长期因果关系。结果表明,研究期间生物柴油价格受到前一周生物燃料和油菜籽价格的影响。此外,生物柴油价格对乙醇水平和油菜籽价格也有影响。以油菜籽为例,其价格与玉米价格之间的相关性也很明显,而玉米价格也可能影响乙醇的价格。
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引用次数: 1
The co-evolution of policy support and farmers behaviour. An investigation on Italian agriculture over the 2008-2019 period 政策支持与农民行为的共同演化。2008-2019年意大利农业调查
IF 1.4 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.36253/bae-12912
R. Esposti
This paper investigates the co-evolution of the CAP expenditure and of the farms’ performance and choices to assess whether and to what extent CAP assessment itself meets the requisites of Causal Inference. In order to identify some regularities in this co-evolution, the analysis is performed on a constant group of professional farms over a long enough time period. The Italian 2008-2019 FADN balanced sample is here considered. Results points to two major empirical implications. First of all, they question whether CAP expenditure is actually accompanied by any significant farmers’ response. An exception may actually concern the support specifically focused on environmental standards. Secondly, they raises some major methodological issues about the applicability of the Treatment Effect logic to CAP assessment.
本文研究了共同农业政策支出与农场绩效和选择的共同演变,以评估共同农业政策评估本身是否以及在多大程度上满足因果推理的必要条件。为了确定这种共同进化的一些规律,在足够长的时间内对一组固定的专业农场进行了分析。这里考虑的是意大利2008-2019年FADN平衡样本。结果指出了两个主要的实证意义。首先,他们质疑CAP支出是否真的伴随着农民的重大反应。一个例外实际上可能涉及特别关注环境标准的支持。其次,他们提出了治疗效果逻辑在CAP评估中的适用性的一些主要方法问题。
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引用次数: 2
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Bio-based and Applied Economics
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