Pub Date : 2024-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.003
Ziyue Wang , Jingyao Luo , Hong Li , Yijie Zhu
Using a convective scale WRF-GSI system and a reflectivity observation operator based on the double-moment microphysics (Thompson) scheme, simulated radar reflectivity data are produced and then directly assimilated with EnKF through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for the case of typhoon In-Fa (2021). We examined the ability of the EnKF to simultaneously estimate state variables and conducted sensitivity tests to evaluate the impact of updating different state variables. The results show that updating a full set of analysis variables can help obtain highly precise initial fields in the model and improve typhoon forecast skills. Excluding the horizontal wind update will affect the adjustment of the temperature field and the sea level pressure field during the cyclic assimilation process. Updating the variables directly related to the reflectivity operator alone could adjust hydrometers well, but the positive impact arising from the assimilation quickly vanishes during the forecast. In addition, this study also includes a quantitative RMSE analysis for each variable during the assimilation cycle and compares the effect of each schemes on different variables.
{"title":"Direct assimilation of simulated radar reflectivity for typhoon In-fa using EnKF: Issue with state variables updating","authors":"Ziyue Wang , Jingyao Luo , Hong Li , Yijie Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Using a convective scale WRF-GSI system and a reflectivity observation operator based on the double-moment microphysics (Thompson) scheme, simulated radar reflectivity data are produced and then directly assimilated with EnKF through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for the case of typhoon In-Fa (2021). We examined the ability of the EnKF to simultaneously estimate state variables and conducted sensitivity tests to evaluate the impact of updating different state variables. The results show that updating a full set of analysis variables can help obtain highly precise initial fields in the model and improve typhoon forecast skills. Excluding the horizontal wind update will affect the adjustment of the temperature field and the sea level pressure field during the cyclic assimilation process. Updating the variables directly related to the reflectivity operator alone could adjust hydrometers well, but the positive impact arising from the assimilation quickly vanishes during the forecast. In addition, this study also includes a quantitative RMSE analysis for each variable during the assimilation cycle and compares the effect of each schemes on different variables.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"Pages 24-32"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000122/pdfft?md5=57bc22efe0eefc76f130050fd7e4d0de&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000122-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140274480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.001
Zifeng Yu , Peiyan Chen , Fumin Ren , Lichun Tang , Weiwei Wang , Hui Yu , Kun Zhao
Held every four years, the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone (IWTC) organized by the World Meteorological Organization has been a global leading conference in the field of tropical cyclone. In preparation for the 10th IWTC (IWTC-10) in December 2022, a summary of research advances of landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) rainfall during past four years of 2019–2022 has been prepared. Some of the latest research advances has been summarized in Lamers et al. (2023), which reviewed the latest forecast and disaster prevention methods related to TC precipitation. As a supplement, this article mainly focuses on the recent advances in LTC asymmetric rainfall evolution mechanisms and forecast verification results over China. Some new findings have been made in the LTC inner-core size relationship with the asymmetric rainfall distribution. Some major advances focused on asymmetric microphysical characteristics in the TC rainbands. Current simulation and forecast performances of LTC precipitation have been analyzed, and different forecast error sources for rainfall during different landfall stages of TC were compared. To estimate the risk of TC rainfall hazards in China, a parameterized Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Model was reviewed as well in this article.
{"title":"Recent advances in landfalling tropical cyclone asymmetric rainfall mechanism and forecast verification over China","authors":"Zifeng Yu , Peiyan Chen , Fumin Ren , Lichun Tang , Weiwei Wang , Hui Yu , Kun Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2024.02.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Held every four years, the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone (IWTC) organized by the World Meteorological Organization has been a global leading conference in the field of tropical cyclone. In preparation for the 10th IWTC (IWTC-10) in December 2022, a summary of research advances of landfalling tropical cyclone (LTC) rainfall during past four years of 2019–2022 has been prepared. Some of the latest research advances has been summarized in Lamers et al. (2023), which reviewed the latest forecast and disaster prevention methods related to TC precipitation. As a supplement, this article mainly focuses on the recent advances in LTC asymmetric rainfall evolution mechanisms and forecast verification results over China. Some new findings have been made in the LTC inner-core size relationship with the asymmetric rainfall distribution. Some major advances focused on asymmetric microphysical characteristics in the TC rainbands. Current simulation and forecast performances of LTC precipitation have been analyzed, and different forecast error sources for rainfall during different landfall stages of TC were compared. To estimate the risk of TC rainfall hazards in China, a parameterized Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Model was reviewed as well in this article.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"Pages 33-40"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603224000109/pdfft?md5=3362c5f14f07a81eb225ed5cf563f078&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603224000109-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140281809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.003
Jason P. Dunion , Chris Davis , Helen Titley , Helen Greatrex , Munehiko Yamaguchi , John Methven , Raghavendra Ashrit , Zhuo Wang , Hui Yu , Anne-Claire Fontan , Alan Brammer , Matthew Kucas , Matthew Ford , Philippe Papin , Fernando Prates , Carla Mooney , Andrew Kruczkiewicz , Paromita Chakraborty , Andrew Burton , Mark DeMaria , Jonathan L. Vigh
Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) relies substantially on numerical prediction systems. Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios, it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings. RSMCs, TCWCs, and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs, but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) found that the “pull-through” of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow. IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project, which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project. The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts. TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases: Phase 1 (TC formation and position); Phase 2 (TC intensity and structure); and Phase 3 (TC related rainfall and storm surge). This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position. There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information, making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers. Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices. Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts. Finally, forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent, user-friendly ensemble information. Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility, probabilistic forecast products, and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes.
{"title":"Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products","authors":"Jason P. Dunion , Chris Davis , Helen Titley , Helen Greatrex , Munehiko Yamaguchi , John Methven , Raghavendra Ashrit , Zhuo Wang , Hui Yu , Anne-Claire Fontan , Alan Brammer , Matthew Kucas , Matthew Ford , Philippe Papin , Fernando Prates , Carla Mooney , Andrew Kruczkiewicz , Paromita Chakraborty , Andrew Burton , Mark DeMaria , Jonathan L. Vigh","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) relies substantially on numerical prediction systems. Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios, it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings. RSMCs, TCWCs, and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs, but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) found that the “pull-through” of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow. IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project, which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project. The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts. TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases: Phase 1 (TC formation and position); Phase 2 (TC intensity and structure); and Phase 3 (TC related rainfall and storm surge). This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position. There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information, making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers. Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices. Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts. Finally, forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent, user-friendly ensemble information. Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility, probabilistic forecast products, and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 241-258"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139296954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.002
Kimberly Wood , Wataru Yanase , Jack Beven , Suzana J. Camargo , Joseph B. Courtney , Chris Fogarty , Junya Fukuda , Naoko Kitabatake , Matthew Kucas , Ron McTaggart-Cowan , Michelle Simões Reboita , Jacopo Riboldi
This review, which was adapted from a Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10) report, discusses research findings and operational practices relevant to cyclone types and phase transitions (extratropical, subtropical, and tropical). The cyclone phase space (CPS) method is widely used in both historical investigations and real-time evaluation of cyclone type and transition; however, CPS parameter values depend on input data resolution, and universal thresholds do not currently exist to delineate when a cyclone transitions from one type to another. Assessments of phase transitions in a changing climate highlight potential latitude shifts in extratropical transition and increased potential for tropical transition, but realistic projections of future trends likely require high-resolution simulations that can capture the cyclone warm core.
Operational meteorological centers apply varied approaches to cyclone classification via CPS parameters and other criteria, some of which depend on the tropical basin, yet these approaches cannot fully address challenges in operational classification and subsequently in communicating risks associated with these phase transitions. We recommend a multivariate historical assessment of tropical and subtropical cyclones across all basins in which they occur, including the South Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, to identify the potential for a more universal cyclone classification approach that meets operational needs.
{"title":"Phase transitions between tropical, subtropical, and extratropical cyclones: A review from IWTC-10","authors":"Kimberly Wood , Wataru Yanase , Jack Beven , Suzana J. Camargo , Joseph B. Courtney , Chris Fogarty , Junya Fukuda , Naoko Kitabatake , Matthew Kucas , Ron McTaggart-Cowan , Michelle Simões Reboita , Jacopo Riboldi","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This review, which was adapted from a Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10) report, discusses research findings and operational practices relevant to cyclone types and phase transitions (extratropical, subtropical, and tropical). The cyclone phase space (CPS) method is widely used in both historical investigations and real-time evaluation of cyclone type and transition; however, CPS parameter values depend on input data resolution, and universal thresholds do not currently exist to delineate when a cyclone transitions from one type to another. Assessments of phase transitions in a changing climate highlight potential latitude shifts in extratropical transition and increased potential for tropical transition, but realistic projections of future trends likely require high-resolution simulations that can capture the cyclone warm core.</div><div>Operational meteorological centers apply varied approaches to cyclone classification via CPS parameters and other criteria, some of which depend on the tropical basin, yet these approaches cannot fully address challenges in operational classification and subsequently in communicating risks associated with these phase transitions. We recommend a multivariate historical assessment of tropical and subtropical cyclones across all basins in which they occur, including the South Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, to identify the potential for a more universal cyclone classification approach that meets operational needs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 294-308"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143241452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.004
Jinping Liu , Jeonghye Lee , Ruide Zhou
ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members are directly or indirectly affected by typhoons every year. Members have accumulated rich experiences dealing with typhoons' negative impact and developed the technologies and measures on typhoon-related disaster risk forecasting and early warning in various ways to reduce the damage caused by typhoon. However, it is still facing many difficulties and challenges to accurately forecast the occurrence of typhoons and warning the potential impacts in an early stage due to the continuously changing weather conditions. With the development of information technology (IT) and computing science, and increasing accumulated hydro-meteorological data in recent decades, scientists, researchers and operationers keep trying to improve forecasting models based on the application of big data and artificial intelligent (AI) technology to promote the capacity of typhoon-related disaster risk forecasting and early warning. This paper reviewed the current status of application of big data and AI technology in the aspect of typhoon-related disaster risk forecasting and early warning, and discussed the challenges and limitations that must be addressed to effectively harness the power of big data and AI technology application in typhoon-related disaster risk reduction in the future.
{"title":"Review of big-data and AI application in typhoon-related disaster risk early warning in Typhoon Committee region","authors":"Jinping Liu , Jeonghye Lee , Ruide Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members are directly or indirectly affected by typhoons every year. Members have accumulated rich experiences dealing with typhoons' negative impact and developed the technologies and measures on typhoon-related disaster risk forecasting and early warning in various ways to reduce the damage caused by typhoon. However, it is still facing many difficulties and challenges to accurately forecast the occurrence of typhoons and warning the potential impacts in an early stage due to the continuously changing weather conditions. With the development of information technology (IT) and computing science, and increasing accumulated hydro-meteorological data in recent decades, scientists, researchers and operationers keep trying to improve forecasting models based on the application of big data and artificial intelligent (AI) technology to promote the capacity of typhoon-related disaster risk forecasting and early warning. This paper reviewed the current status of application of big data and AI technology in the aspect of typhoon-related disaster risk forecasting and early warning, and discussed the challenges and limitations that must be addressed to effectively harness the power of big data and AI technology application in typhoon-related disaster risk reduction in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 341-353"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139189456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001
K.K. Hon , Robert Ballard , Eric Blake , Steph Bond , Robb Gile , Daniel Halperin , Charles Helms , Hoang Lam , Xinyan Lyu , Mrutyunjay Mohapatra , Monica Sharma , Akira Shimokobe , Ralf Toumi , Seonghee Won
Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community. This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres. Since IWTC-9, we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers, typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis, covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead. The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction. While operational practice might differ across agencies, verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability, which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.
{"title":"Recent advances in operational tropical cyclone genesis forecast","authors":"K.K. Hon , Robert Ballard , Eric Blake , Steph Bond , Robb Gile , Daniel Halperin , Charles Helms , Hoang Lam , Xinyan Lyu , Mrutyunjay Mohapatra , Monica Sharma , Akira Shimokobe , Ralf Toumi , Seonghee Won","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis prediction is a major scientific challenge to the TC operation and research community. This report surveys the current status of TC genesis forecasts by a number of major operational centers covering the key ocean basins across both hemispheres. Since IWTC-9, we see an emergence of probabilistic TC genesis forecast products by operational centers, typically supported by the statistical processing of a combination of ensemble prediction and satellite analysis, covering time periods of couple of days to weeks ahead. The prevalence of multi-center grand ensemble approach highlights the uncertainties involved and the forecast challenges in quantitative genesis prediction. While operational practice might differ across agencies, verification efforts generally report a steady or slightly improving skill level in terms of reliability, which likely results from the continual improvement in global numerical weather prediction capability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 323-340"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139018499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.002
Ying Li , Julian Heming , Ryan D. Torn , Shaojun Lai , Yinglong Xu , Xiaomeng Chen
The progress of research and forecast techniques for tropical cyclone (TC) unusual tracks (UTs) in recent years is reviewed. A major research focus has been understanding which processes contribute to the evolution of the TC and steering flow over time, especially the reasons for the sharp changes in TC motion over a short period of time. When TCs are located in the vicinity of monsoon gyres, TC track forecast become more difficult to forecast due to the complex interaction between the TCs and the gyres. Moreover, the convection and latent heat can also feed back into the synoptic-scale features and in turn modify the steering flow. In this report, two cases with UTs are examined, along with an assessment of numerical model forecasts. Advances in numerical modelling and in particular the development of ensemble forecasting systems have proved beneficial in the prediction of such TCs. There are still great challenges in operational track forecasts and warnings, such as the initial TC track forecast, which is based on a poor pre-genesis analysis, TC track forecasts during interaction between two or more TCs and track predictions after landfall. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as machine learning or deep learning have been widely applied in the field of TC forecasting. For TC track forecasting, a more effective method of center location is obtained by combining data from various sources and fully exploring the potential of AI, which provides more possibilities for improving TC prediction.
{"title":"Unusual tracks: Statistical, controlling factors and model prediction","authors":"Ying Li , Julian Heming , Ryan D. Torn , Shaojun Lai , Yinglong Xu , Xiaomeng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The progress of research and forecast techniques for tropical cyclone (TC) unusual tracks (UTs) in recent years is reviewed. A major research focus has been understanding which processes contribute to the evolution of the TC and steering flow over time, especially the reasons for the sharp changes in TC motion over a short period of time. When TCs are located in the vicinity of monsoon gyres, TC track forecast become more difficult to forecast due to the complex interaction between the TCs and the gyres. Moreover, the convection and latent heat can also feed back into the synoptic-scale features and in turn modify the steering flow. In this report, two cases with UTs are examined, along with an assessment of numerical model forecasts. Advances in numerical modelling and in particular the development of ensemble forecasting systems have proved beneficial in the prediction of such TCs. There are still great challenges in operational track forecasts and warnings, such as the initial TC track forecast, which is based on a poor pre-genesis analysis, TC track forecasts during interaction between two or more TCs and track predictions after landfall. Recently, artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as machine learning or deep learning have been widely applied in the field of TC forecasting. For TC track forecasting, a more effective method of center location is obtained by combining data from various sources and fully exploring the potential of AI, which provides more possibilities for improving TC prediction.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 309-322"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138986493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.003
Lucrezia Ricciardulli , Brian Howell , Christopher R. Jackson , Jeff Hawkins , Joe Courtney , Ad Stoffelen , Sebastian Langlade , Chris Fogarty , Alexis Mouche , William Blackwell , Thomas Meissner , Julian Heming , Brett Candy , Tony McNally , Masahiro Kazumori , Chinmay Khadke , Maria Ana Glaiza Escullar
This article describes recent advances in the capability of new satellite sensors for observing Tropical Cyclones (TC) fine structure, wind field, and temporal evolution. The article is based on a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report prepared for the 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC), held in Bali in December 2022, and its objective is to present updates in TC research and operation every four years. Here we focus on updates regarding the most recent space-based TC observations, and we cover new methodologies and techniques using polar orbiting sensors, such as C-band synthetic aperture radars (SARs), L-band and combined C/X-band radiometers, scatterometers, and microwave imagers/sounders. We additionally address progress made with the new generation of geostationary and small satellites, and discuss future sensors planned to be launched in the next years. We then briefly describe some examples on how the newest sensors are used in operations and data assimilation for TC forecasting and research, and conclude the article with a discussion on the remaining challenges of TC space-based observations and possible ways to address them in the near future.
{"title":"Remote sensing and analysis of tropical cyclones: Current and emerging satellite sensors","authors":"Lucrezia Ricciardulli , Brian Howell , Christopher R. Jackson , Jeff Hawkins , Joe Courtney , Ad Stoffelen , Sebastian Langlade , Chris Fogarty , Alexis Mouche , William Blackwell , Thomas Meissner , Julian Heming , Brett Candy , Tony McNally , Masahiro Kazumori , Chinmay Khadke , Maria Ana Glaiza Escullar","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.12.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article describes recent advances in the capability of new satellite sensors for observing Tropical Cyclones (TC) fine structure, wind field, and temporal evolution. The article is based on a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report prepared for the 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC), held in Bali in December 2022, and its objective is to present updates in TC research and operation every four years. Here we focus on updates regarding the most recent space-based TC observations, and we cover new methodologies and techniques using polar orbiting sensors, such as C-band synthetic aperture radars (SARs), L-band and combined C/X-band radiometers, scatterometers, and microwave imagers/sounders. We additionally address progress made with the new generation of geostationary and small satellites, and discuss future sensors planned to be launched in the next years. We then briefly describe some examples on how the newest sensors are used in operations and data assimilation for TC forecasting and research, and conclude the article with a discussion on the remaining challenges of TC space-based observations and possible ways to address them in the near future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 267-293"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139192563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.001
Quoc-Phi Duong , Anthony Wimmers , Derrick Herndon , Zhe-Min Tan , Jing-Yi Zhuo , John Knaff , Ibrahim Al Abdulsalam , Takeshi Horinouchi , Ryota Miyata , Arthur Avenas
Here we explore the latest four years (2019–2022) of using satellite data to objectively analyze tropical cyclones (TC) and issue recommendations for improved analysis. We first discuss new methods of direct retrieval from SAR and geostationary imagers. Next, we survey some of the most prominent new techniques in AI and discuss their major capabilities (especially accuracy in nonlinear TC behavior, characterization of model uncertainty and creation of synthetic satellite imagery) and limitations (especially lack of transparency and limited amount of training data). We also identify concerns with biases and unlabeled uncertainties in the Best Track records as being a first-order limitation for further progress in objective methods. The article concludes with recommendations to improve future objective methods, especially in the area of more accurate and reliable training data sets.
{"title":"Objective satellite methods including AI algorithms reviewed for the tenth International workshop on tropical cyclones (IWTC-10)","authors":"Quoc-Phi Duong , Anthony Wimmers , Derrick Herndon , Zhe-Min Tan , Jing-Yi Zhuo , John Knaff , Ibrahim Al Abdulsalam , Takeshi Horinouchi , Ryota Miyata , Arthur Avenas","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.11.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Here we explore the latest four years (2019–2022) of using satellite data to objectively analyze tropical cyclones (TC) and issue recommendations for improved analysis. We first discuss new methods of direct retrieval from SAR and geostationary imagers. Next, we survey some of the most prominent new techniques in AI and discuss their major capabilities (especially accuracy in nonlinear TC behavior, characterization of model uncertainty and creation of synthetic satellite imagery) and limitations (especially lack of transparency and limited amount of training data). We also identify concerns with biases and unlabeled uncertainties in the Best Track records as being a first-order limitation for further progress in objective methods. The article concludes with recommendations to improve future objective methods, especially in the area of more accurate and reliable training data sets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 4","pages":"Pages 259-266"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139292443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.001
Joshua B. Wadler , Johna E. Rudzin , Benjamin Jaimes de la Cruz , Jie Chen , Michael Fischer , Guanghua Chen , Nannan Qin , Brian Tang , Qingqing Li
Over the past four years, significant research has advanced our understanding of how external factors influence tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes. Research on air-sea interactions shows that increasing the moisture disequilibrium is a very effective way to increase surface heat fluxes and that ocean salinity-stratification plays a non-negligible part in TC intensity change. Vertical wind shear from the environment induces vortex misalignment, which controls the onset of significant TC intensification. Blocking due to upper-level outflow from TCs can reduce the magnitude of vertical wind shear, making for TC intensification. Enhanced TC-trough interactions are vital for rapid intensification in some TC cases because of strengthened warm air advection, but upper-level troughs are found to limit TC intensification in other cases due to dry midlevel air intrusions and increased shear. Aerosol effects on TCs can be divided into direct effects involving aerosol-radiation interactions and indirect effects involving aerosol-cloud interactions. The radiation absorption by the aerosols can change the temperature profile and affect outer rainbands through changes in stability and microphysics. Sea spray and sea salt aerosols are more important in the inner region, where the aerosols increase precipitation and latent heating, promoting more intensification. For landfalling TCs, the intensity decay is initially more sensitive to surface roughness than soil moisture, and the subsequent decay is mainly due to the rapid reduction in surface moisture fluxes. These new insights further sharpen our understanding of the mechanisms by which external factors influence TC intensity changes.
{"title":"A review of recent research progress on the effect of external influences on tropical cyclone intensity change","authors":"Joshua B. Wadler , Johna E. Rudzin , Benjamin Jaimes de la Cruz , Jie Chen , Michael Fischer , Guanghua Chen , Nannan Qin , Brian Tang , Qingqing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Over the past four years, significant research has advanced our understanding of how external factors influence tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes. Research on air-sea interactions shows that increasing the moisture disequilibrium is a very effective way to increase surface heat fluxes and that ocean salinity-stratification plays a non-negligible part in TC intensity change. Vertical wind shear from the environment induces vortex misalignment, which controls the onset of significant TC intensification. Blocking due to upper-level outflow from TCs can reduce the magnitude of vertical wind shear, making for TC intensification. Enhanced TC-trough interactions are vital for rapid intensification in some TC cases because of strengthened warm air advection, but upper-level troughs are found to limit TC intensification in other cases due to dry midlevel air intrusions and increased shear. Aerosol effects on TCs can be divided into direct effects involving aerosol-radiation interactions and indirect effects involving aerosol-cloud interactions. The radiation absorption by the aerosols can change the temperature profile and affect outer rainbands through changes in stability and microphysics. Sea spray and sea salt aerosols are more important in the inner region, where the aerosols increase precipitation and latent heating, promoting more intensification. For landfalling TCs, the intensity decay is initially more sensitive to surface roughness than soil moisture, and the subsequent decay is mainly due to the rapid reduction in surface moisture fluxes. These new insights further sharpen our understanding of the mechanisms by which external factors influence TC intensity changes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"12 3","pages":"Pages 200-215"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603223000395/pdfft?md5=75c970bfed66038f97ab660225e84a79&pid=1-s2.0-S2225603223000395-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135298935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号