Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443362
Xiping Wang
The traditional Grey model has been widely used in various forecasting systems, including electricity demand forecasting. However, it is reported that the accuracy of the model is not satisfactory. In this paper, Grey prediction with rolling mechanism (GPRM) approach is proposed to predict the total and industrial electricity consumption of Shanghai. GPRM is used because of high prediction accuracy, applicability in the case of limited data situations and requirement for little computational effort. Results show that the forecasting precision of GPRM for total and industrial electricity demand is improved. And future projections have also been done for total and industrial sector, respectively.
{"title":"Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Shanghai","authors":"Xiping Wang","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443362","url":null,"abstract":"The traditional Grey model has been widely used in various forecasting systems, including electricity demand forecasting. However, it is reported that the accuracy of the model is not satisfactory. In this paper, Grey prediction with rolling mechanism (GPRM) approach is proposed to predict the total and industrial electricity consumption of Shanghai. GPRM is used because of high prediction accuracy, applicability in the case of limited data situations and requirement for little computational effort. Results show that the forecasting precision of GPRM for total and industrial electricity demand is improved. And future projections have also been done for total and industrial sector, respectively.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"86 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123103658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The model of GM(1,1) is one of the most important sections in the gray system theories. The abilities of reaction, which the original sequence data are simulated by the GM(1,1), are always noticed by many scholars. However, it is stopped in evaluation of prediction errors in one or two examples that the problem is researched in the present. In this paper, the abilities of GM(1,1) simulation for non-vibration sequence data, in which there are equal difference geometric ratio sequence data, is systematically researched and analyzed with the way of systematic thoughts and theories methods. On the basis of above, the result we got from our research provides good referring and consulting for using the GM(1,1) to predict the future data.
{"title":"The research of reaction abilities and errors distributions for the model of GM(1,1) to simulate equal difference and geometric ratio sequence","authors":"Xuewen Tang, Sifeng Liu, Zhigeng Fang, Xiangmin Xu, Yao-guo Dang","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443298","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443298","url":null,"abstract":"The model of GM(1,1) is one of the most important sections in the gray system theories. The abilities of reaction, which the original sequence data are simulated by the GM(1,1), are always noticed by many scholars. However, it is stopped in evaluation of prediction errors in one or two examples that the problem is researched in the present. In this paper, the abilities of GM(1,1) simulation for non-vibration sequence data, in which there are equal difference geometric ratio sequence data, is systematically researched and analyzed with the way of systematic thoughts and theories methods. On the basis of above, the result we got from our research provides good referring and consulting for using the GM(1,1) to predict the future data.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123273041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443446
Xiao Haijun, Peng Fang, Wang Ling, L. Hongwei
In order to gain the result of identifying a good detection mechanism in intrusion detection, several intelligent techniques such as ANNs, SVMs, and data mining techniques are being used to build IDSs. Instead examining all data features to detect intrusion or misuse patterns, the approach of Adhoc-based feature selection and support vector machine classifier for detect intrusion is performed. In this performance of IDS, Ad hoc technology is used to optimize the feature subset for raw data and 10-fold cross validation is used to optimize the parameters of SVM for intrusion detection. The result of our experiments shows that the FS & SVM is not only superior to the famous data mining strategy, but also superior to other intelligent paradigms.
{"title":"Ad hoc-based feature selection and support vector machine classifier for intrusion detection","authors":"Xiao Haijun, Peng Fang, Wang Ling, L. Hongwei","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443446","url":null,"abstract":"In order to gain the result of identifying a good detection mechanism in intrusion detection, several intelligent techniques such as ANNs, SVMs, and data mining techniques are being used to build IDSs. Instead examining all data features to detect intrusion or misuse patterns, the approach of Adhoc-based feature selection and support vector machine classifier for detect intrusion is performed. In this performance of IDS, Ad hoc technology is used to optimize the feature subset for raw data and 10-fold cross validation is used to optimize the parameters of SVM for intrusion detection. The result of our experiments shows that the FS & SVM is not only superior to the famous data mining strategy, but also superior to other intelligent paradigms.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123483768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443329
Y. Hao, Juan Du, Wei Wang, Xuemeng Wang
Economic development is a continuous and dynamic process. It can be divided into three specific components according to different time scales: the long-term trend, the medium-term periodic variation and the short-term random fluctuation. In this paper we used the grey system model to simulate the long-term trend of economic development and obtained the periodic variation from analysis of residual model. Amalgamating the long-term trend and the periodic variation, we obtained periodic correction, from which we got the random fluctuation. Using the periodic variation and the random fluctuation, the whole economic development process has been simulated through developing a predictive model. The application of the model to Shanxi Province shows that the model performs well. This model provides a new analysis method for the development planning of regional economy,which can provide the main scientific basis for the adjustment of economic structure and the economic development of Shanxi Province in the future.
{"title":"A grey system model for simulation of economic development","authors":"Y. Hao, Juan Du, Wei Wang, Xuemeng Wang","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443329","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443329","url":null,"abstract":"Economic development is a continuous and dynamic process. It can be divided into three specific components according to different time scales: the long-term trend, the medium-term periodic variation and the short-term random fluctuation. In this paper we used the grey system model to simulate the long-term trend of economic development and obtained the periodic variation from analysis of residual model. Amalgamating the long-term trend and the periodic variation, we obtained periodic correction, from which we got the random fluctuation. Using the periodic variation and the random fluctuation, the whole economic development process has been simulated through developing a predictive model. The application of the model to Shanxi Province shows that the model performs well. This model provides a new analysis method for the development planning of regional economy,which can provide the main scientific basis for the adjustment of economic structure and the economic development of Shanxi Province in the future.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"685 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121987709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443489
Zhou Zhijuan, Chen Senfa
Transportation mode selection lies in both goods and passenger transportation. However, the decision-making process is always influenced by many factors. The classical decision-making method has some subjective factors about sequencing the factors. The paper gives a reasonable sequencing method combining DEA with AHP. It is testified that the method is adaptive in the process of transportation mode selection.
{"title":"Application of DEA and AHP method in transportation mode selection","authors":"Zhou Zhijuan, Chen Senfa","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443489","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443489","url":null,"abstract":"Transportation mode selection lies in both goods and passenger transportation. However, the decision-making process is always influenced by many factors. The classical decision-making method has some subjective factors about sequencing the factors. The paper gives a reasonable sequencing method combining DEA with AHP. It is testified that the method is adaptive in the process of transportation mode selection.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"45 24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122494046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443404
Wu Shunxiang, Huang Zhiyong, Luo Delin, Liu Sifeng
Combining the methods of rough set theory and grey system theory and by introducing the grey number concept, the conventional incomplete information system method is extended and a kind of (alpha, beta)-grey similarity relation GSIM(alpha, beta) of grey information system is proposed, then the model of grey rough set based on the (alpha, beta)-grey similarity relation is established and investigation is made in the related foundational theories. Methods are proposed to describe the positive, boundary and negative regions and the reduction of grey decision-making table in the grey rough set by the recognition degree mode of grey theory, and a solution to the problem of incoherence is brought forward in the grey decision-making table from the angle of recognition degree mode. Example shows that this kind of model is more intuitive and rational. It breaks through the limitation of the study on conventional rough set theory which is restricted to the classic relations.
{"title":"A grey rough set model based on (α,β) grey similarity relation","authors":"Wu Shunxiang, Huang Zhiyong, Luo Delin, Liu Sifeng","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443404","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443404","url":null,"abstract":"Combining the methods of rough set theory and grey system theory and by introducing the grey number concept, the conventional incomplete information system method is extended and a kind of (alpha, beta)-grey similarity relation GSIM(alpha, beta) of grey information system is proposed, then the model of grey rough set based on the (alpha, beta)-grey similarity relation is established and investigation is made in the related foundational theories. Methods are proposed to describe the positive, boundary and negative regions and the reduction of grey decision-making table in the grey rough set by the recognition degree mode of grey theory, and a solution to the problem of incoherence is brought forward in the grey decision-making table from the angle of recognition degree mode. Example shows that this kind of model is more intuitive and rational. It breaks through the limitation of the study on conventional rough set theory which is restricted to the classic relations.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122844721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443421
Liu Yong, Wu Jun, Liu Ping, Limei Ning
On the basis of the thought of system and fuzzy decision, the grey system theory is applied to solve the problem of UERR (underground engineering reinforcement and reconstruction), and index system of UERR is built. According to the strengthening of multiple targets optimization models of UERR a Pareto optimum concourse of many satisfied solution is got. The grey fuzzy optimal selection model of the Pareto solution is established, and the corresponding GA is given. The example shows that it can obtain the useful conclusion from the model.
{"title":"Study on optimized-select model of underground engineering reinforcement and reconstruction based on grey fuzzy decision making","authors":"Liu Yong, Wu Jun, Liu Ping, Limei Ning","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443421","url":null,"abstract":"On the basis of the thought of system and fuzzy decision, the grey system theory is applied to solve the problem of UERR (underground engineering reinforcement and reconstruction), and index system of UERR is built. According to the strengthening of multiple targets optimization models of UERR a Pareto optimum concourse of many satisfied solution is got. The grey fuzzy optimal selection model of the Pareto solution is established, and the corresponding GA is given. The example shows that it can obtain the useful conclusion from the model.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"189 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122870026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443345
Dou Yu, Yong Wei
This paper is from the original sequence level than the geometric average, the formula is used to determine the initial development factor a0. Through several examples are given good results. Then take first-derived reduction, and a discrete set of initial conditions x tilde(0)=x(0) determines coefficient of response , precision again will be further improved, and breakthroughs the development coefficient a isin (-2,2) of the limited scope, broaden the scope of the model and calculation is simple and efficient.
{"title":"New algorithms of initial development coefficients and optimization of grey model","authors":"Dou Yu, Yong Wei","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443345","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is from the original sequence level than the geometric average, the formula is used to determine the initial development factor a0. Through several examples are given good results. Then take first-derived reduction, and a discrete set of initial conditions x tilde(0)=x(0) determines coefficient of response , precision again will be further improved, and breakthroughs the development coefficient a isin (-2,2) of the limited scope, broaden the scope of the model and calculation is simple and efficient.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126548162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443477
Lanfang Yang, Zhigeng Fang, Hongxing Shi
The most fatal flaw of the classical Cournot oligopoly model as well as the related oligopoly output-making competition model is the supposition on the purpose of game players. It is thought that the only game goal is to make the maximum present profits. Based on this supposition, most game model structures are optimal structures. In this paper, some new suppositions of duopoly game are established, including the game goal supposition, the time-order supposition and bounded rationality and knowledge supposition. And a description game structure model which has strong universality to the realistic decision-making situations is also constructed. Based on this model, the damping equilibrium of the first decision-maker and the concepts of the damping loss and the total damping cost when the first decision-maker completely seizes the whole market have been put forward. At last, simulation examples for some important propositions and algorithms are given.
{"title":"Study on the damping loss and the damping cost of duopoly strategy output-making damping equilibrium","authors":"Lanfang Yang, Zhigeng Fang, Hongxing Shi","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443477","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443477","url":null,"abstract":"The most fatal flaw of the classical Cournot oligopoly model as well as the related oligopoly output-making competition model is the supposition on the purpose of game players. It is thought that the only game goal is to make the maximum present profits. Based on this supposition, most game model structures are optimal structures. In this paper, some new suppositions of duopoly game are established, including the game goal supposition, the time-order supposition and bounded rationality and knowledge supposition. And a description game structure model which has strong universality to the realistic decision-making situations is also constructed. Based on this model, the damping equilibrium of the first decision-maker and the concepts of the damping loss and the total damping cost when the first decision-maker completely seizes the whole market have been put forward. At last, simulation examples for some important propositions and algorithms are given.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129997786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2007-11-01DOI: 10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443334
D. Yamaguchi, GuoDong Li, Li-Chen Chen, M. Nagai
The aim of this paper is to investigate advantages of grey system theory. A lot of vague concepts like fuzzy sets, grey systems or rough sets has been proposed in the past. However, the unique concept of grey system theory, for example, it is useful under lack of data situation, is still unclear because a few articles discuss and deal with in real application. In this paper firstly numbers, membership functions, operations, crisp conversions and data pre-processing methods of each vague concept are summarized to review with several illustrations. Secondly the uniqueness of grey concept is discussed. It is found that the grey lattice operation and the nominal-the- better of grey generating are unique methods unlike fuzzy- based models or rough-based models. The unique concepts of grey system theory are 'interval data analysis' and 'target-based data analysis', which should add to the existing ones. Given data sets are analyzed strategically in grey system theory from these concepts.
{"title":"Reviewing crisp, fuzzy, grey and rough mathematical models","authors":"D. Yamaguchi, GuoDong Li, Li-Chen Chen, M. Nagai","doi":"10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/GSIS.2007.4443334","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to investigate advantages of grey system theory. A lot of vague concepts like fuzzy sets, grey systems or rough sets has been proposed in the past. However, the unique concept of grey system theory, for example, it is useful under lack of data situation, is still unclear because a few articles discuss and deal with in real application. In this paper firstly numbers, membership functions, operations, crisp conversions and data pre-processing methods of each vague concept are summarized to review with several illustrations. Secondly the uniqueness of grey concept is discussed. It is found that the grey lattice operation and the nominal-the- better of grey generating are unique methods unlike fuzzy- based models or rough-based models. The unique concepts of grey system theory are 'interval data analysis' and 'target-based data analysis', which should add to the existing ones. Given data sets are analyzed strategically in grey system theory from these concepts.","PeriodicalId":445155,"journal":{"name":"2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129718283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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