Norbert F. Schneider, M. Bujard, C. Wolf, Tobias Gummer, K. Hank, Franz J. Neyer
This article introduces the evolution, framework, objectives, and design of the new data infrastructure “FReDA – The German Family-Demographic Panel Study”, which has been funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) since 2020. FReDA is rooted in the Generation and Gender Survey (GGS) and the German Family Panel (pairfam). FReDA was initiated to facilitate research on family and demography by providing a comprehensive panel study allowing for international comparisons as well as dyadic analyses through a multi-actor design. The survey covers major fields of family research, such as fertility behaviour, reproductive health, work-family conflict, dyadic division of work, gender roles, intimate relations, separation and divorce, parenting and intergenerational relations, social inequalities, family attitudes, and well-being. FReDA interviews are conducted in a self-administered web-based (CAWI) or paper-based (PAPI) manner. The infrastructure consists of two different samples. First, the new FReDA-GGS survey started in early 2021, with a wave 1 study population of individuals aged 18 to 49 years and their partners. Second, the FReDA-pairfam survey will continue the 14-wave pairfam sample from 2022 onwards. The questionnaires of both samples will be harmonised as FReDA evolves. Data accessibility, organisation, and future perspectives of the data infrastructure are described and discussed in the paper’s conclusions.
{"title":"Family Research and Demographic Analysis (FReDA): Evolution, Framework, Objectives, and Design of “The German Family-Demographic Panel Study”","authors":"Norbert F. Schneider, M. Bujard, C. Wolf, Tobias Gummer, K. Hank, Franz J. Neyer","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-06","url":null,"abstract":"This article introduces the evolution, framework, objectives, and design of the new data infrastructure “FReDA – The German Family-Demographic Panel Study”, which has been funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) since 2020. FReDA is rooted in the Generation and Gender Survey (GGS) and the German Family Panel (pairfam). FReDA was initiated to facilitate research on family and demography by providing a comprehensive panel study allowing for international comparisons as well as dyadic analyses through a multi-actor design. The survey covers major fields of family research, such as fertility behaviour, reproductive health, work-family conflict, dyadic division of work, gender roles, intimate relations, separation and divorce, parenting and intergenerational relations, social inequalities, family attitudes, and well-being. FReDA interviews are conducted in a self-administered web-based (CAWI) or paper-based (PAPI) manner. The infrastructure consists of two different samples. First, the new FReDA-GGS survey started in early 2021, with a wave 1 study population of individuals aged 18 to 49 years and their partners. Second, the FReDA-pairfam survey will continue the 14-wave pairfam sample from 2022 onwards. The questionnaires of both samples will be harmonised as FReDA evolves. Data accessibility, organisation, and future perspectives of the data infrastructure are described and discussed in the paper’s conclusions.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41475130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We aim to give an overview of the state of the art of causal analysis of demographic issues related to morbidity and mortality. We will systematically introduce strategies to identify causal mechanisms, which are inherently linked to panel data from observational surveys and population registers. We will focus on health and mortality, and on the issues of unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causation between health and (1) retirement, (2) socio-economic status, and (3) characteristics of partnership and fertility history. The boundaries between demographic research on mortality and morbidity and the neighbouring disciplines epidemiology, public health and economy are often blurred. We will highlight the specific contribution of demography by reviewing methods used in the demographic literature. We classify these methods according to important criteria, such as a design-based versus model-based approach and control for unobserved confounders. We present examples from the literature for each of the methods and discuss the assumptions and the advantages and disadvantages of the methods for the identification of causal effects in demographic morbidity and mortality research. The differentiation between methods that control for unobserved confounders and those that do not reveal a fundamental difference between (1) methods that try to emulate a randomised experiment and have higher internal validity and (2) methods that attempt to achieve conditional independence by including all relevant factors in the model. The latter usually have higher external validity and require more assumptions and prior knowledge of relevant factors and their relationships. It is impossible to provide a general definition of the sort of validity that is more important, as there is always a trade-off between generalising the results to the population of interest and avoiding biases in the estimation of causal effects in the sample. We hope that our review will aid researchers in identifying strategies to answer their specific research question. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data".
{"title":"Approaches and Methods for Causal Analysis of Panel Data in the Area of Morbidity and Mortality","authors":"R. Hoffmann, G. Doblhammer","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2021-03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2021-03","url":null,"abstract":"We aim to give an overview of the state of the art of causal analysis of demographic issues related to morbidity and mortality. We will systematically introduce strategies to identify causal mechanisms, which are inherently linked to panel data from observational surveys and population registers. We will focus on health and mortality, and on the issues of unobserved heterogeneity and reverse causation between health and (1) retirement, (2) socio-economic status, and (3) characteristics of partnership and fertility history. \u0000The boundaries between demographic research on mortality and morbidity and the neighbouring disciplines epidemiology, public health and economy are often blurred. We will highlight the specific contribution of demography by reviewing methods used in the demographic literature. We classify these methods according to important criteria, such as a design-based versus model-based approach and control for unobserved confounders. We present examples from the literature for each of the methods and discuss the assumptions and the advantages and disadvantages of the methods for the identification of causal effects in demographic morbidity and mortality research. \u0000The differentiation between methods that control for unobserved confounders and those that do not reveal a fundamental difference between (1) methods that try to emulate a randomised experiment and have higher internal validity and (2) methods that attempt to achieve conditional independence by including all relevant factors in the model. The latter usually have higher external validity and require more assumptions and prior knowledge of relevant factors and their relationships. It is impossible to provide a general definition of the sort of validity that is more important, as there is always a trade-off between generalising the results to the population of interest and avoiding biases in the estimation of causal effects in the sample. We hope that our review will aid researchers in identifying strategies to answer their specific research question. \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on \"Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data\".","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-04-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49131163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using panel data from childless respondents of the German Family Panel (pairfam, n=3,802 respondents), this paper investigates whether fertility orientations (biographical orientations with respect to fertility) influence the risk of different partnership transitions among German men and women over the age of 18 (for n=14,572 observation periods between two panel waves). Significant influences are found for both gender and partnership transition types, and are generally stronger among men than women and for the transition to a coresidential as opposed to a romantic partnership. Uncertainty about anticipated fertility has a stronger negative impact on transition risks among men than among women.
Results strongly suggest that the early stages of the partnership formation process are instrumental in terms of future fertility in Germany, at least to some degree. This indicates that a more comprehensive conceptualisation and analysis of fertility within the life course paradigm (as suggested by Huinink/Kohli 2014) should consider the impacts of fertility orientations on life course events in other dimensions, especially among men. Viewed more broadly, the results also underline two factors: the role of agency in coordinating life course dimensions in time and space in order to maximise individual welfare; and the importance of considering the impacts that anticipation of future life course events will have, as suggested by different theoretical approaches.
{"title":"Is Early Partnership Formation Instrumental for Fertility in Germany?","authors":"Okka Zimmermann","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-01","url":null,"abstract":"Using panel data from childless respondents of the German Family Panel (pairfam, n=3,802 respondents), this paper investigates whether fertility orientations (biographical orientations with respect to fertility) influence the risk of different partnership transitions among German men and women over the age of 18 (for n=14,572 observation periods between two panel waves). Significant influences are found for both gender and partnership transition types, and are generally stronger among men than women and for the transition to a coresidential as opposed to a romantic partnership. Uncertainty about anticipated fertility has a stronger negative impact on transition risks among men than among women.
Results strongly suggest that the early stages of the partnership formation process are instrumental in terms of future fertility in Germany, at least to some degree. This indicates that a more comprehensive conceptualisation and analysis of fertility within the life course paradigm (as suggested by Huinink/Kohli 2014) should consider the impacts of fertility orientations on life course events in other dimensions, especially among men. Viewed more broadly, the results also underline two factors: the role of agency in coordinating life course dimensions in time and space in order to maximise individual welfare; and the importance of considering the impacts that anticipation of future life course events will have, as suggested by different theoretical approaches.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138528148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-02-01DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-002
D. Schneider, M. Myrskylä, Alyson A. van Raalte
Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.
{"title":"Flexible transition timing in discrete-time multistate life tables using Markov chains with rewards.","authors":"D. Schneider, M. Myrskylä, Alyson A. van Raalte","doi":"10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2021-002","url":null,"abstract":"Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"52 1","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81020120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using high-quality register data, this paper constructs an empirical portrait of older parenthood in contemporary Norway and explores gender differences in the extent to which older parents are better-resourced parents. Like most family issues, academic and policy discussions of older parenthood have tended to focus on the experiences of women. Although motherhood at older ages was not uncommon in previous generations, rapid social and family changes in recent decades mean that today’s older mother is far more likely to be having her first child. She may have focused on obtaining a good education and then on establishing her career and finding a supportive partner. When viewed through this motherhood lens, older parents are often portrayed as being relatively well-off financially and enjoying stable family lives. Viewed through the fatherhood lens, however, the family literature suggests that age might not be as strong a marker of socio-economic advantage. Our findings show that this is the case: While older fathers are, on average, more socio-economically advantaged than younger fathers around the time their children are born, their relative advantage is narrower than what we observe when older mothers and younger mothers are compared. Gender differences in the family history profiles of older parents appear to explain some of the differentials we document. The children of older fathers are more likely to be born into blended families and less likely to born to a mother who postponed her first birth than are the children born to older mothers. The results suggest that the meaning of paternal age and maternal age differs: paternal age is not as strong a marker of socio-economic advantages and resources for children as maternal age is.
{"title":"With Age Comes …? An Examination of Gendered Differences in the Resource Advantages Associated with Parental Age in Norway","authors":"W. Sigle, Ø. Kravdal","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-13","url":null,"abstract":"Using high-quality register data, this paper constructs an empirical portrait of older parenthood in contemporary Norway and explores gender differences in the extent to which older parents are better-resourced parents. Like most family issues, academic and policy discussions of older parenthood have tended to focus on the experiences of women. Although motherhood at older ages was not uncommon in previous generations, rapid social and family changes in recent decades mean that today’s older mother is far more likely to be having her first child. She may have focused on obtaining a good education and then on establishing her career and finding a supportive partner. When viewed through this motherhood lens, older parents are often portrayed as being relatively well-off financially and enjoying stable family lives. Viewed through the fatherhood lens, however, the family literature suggests that age might not be as strong a marker of socio-economic advantage. Our findings show that this is the case: While older fathers are, on average, more socio-economically advantaged than younger fathers around the time their children are born, their relative advantage is narrower than what we observe when older mothers and younger mothers are compared. Gender differences in the family history profiles of older parents appear to explain some of the differentials we document. The children of older fathers are more likely to be born into blended families and less likely to born to a mother who postponed her first birth than are the children born to older mothers. The results suggest that the meaning of paternal age and maternal age differs: paternal age is not as strong a marker of socio-economic advantages and resources for children as maternal age is.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66518357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Panel data on intimate relationships are becoming increasingly available, enabling a closer examination and deeper understanding of why and how they develop over time. The aim of this review is to illustrate to what extent demographic research has made progress in understanding the dynamics of intimate relationships by examining panel data. We focus on hypotheses about key transitions throughout the progression of intimate relationships, ranging from union formation up to cohabitation, marriage, divorce and repartnering. For every hypothesis, we will present findings from cross-sectional data and illustrate whether the use of panel data and longitudinal methods modified the previous understandings of transitions in intimate relationships. * This article belongs to a special issue on "Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data".
{"title":"Analysing Transitions in Intimate Relationships with Panel Data","authors":"Michael Feldhaus, Richard Preetz","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-12","url":null,"abstract":"Panel data on intimate relationships are becoming increasingly available, enabling a closer examination and deeper understanding of why and how they develop over time. The aim of this review is to illustrate to what extent demographic research has made progress in understanding the dynamics of intimate relationships by examining panel data. We focus on hypotheses about key transitions throughout the progression of intimate relationships, ranging from union formation up to cohabitation, marriage, divorce and repartnering. For every hypothesis, we will present findings from cross-sectional data and illustrate whether the use of panel data and longitudinal methods modified the previous understandings of transitions in intimate relationships. * This article belongs to a special issue on \"Identification of causal mechanisms in demographic research: The contribution of panel data\".","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66518309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates gender preferences for offspring within the native French population and among immigrants from North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Turkey and Vietnam-Cambodia-Laos in France by combining the Family and Housing Survey (2011) and the Trajectories and Origins Survey (2008). In so doing, it is the first paper to examine the persistence (or lack thereof) of gender preferences among immigrants in France. This allows the findings of the paper to serve as a tool for monitoring the immigrant integration process in the country. Using (multilevel) logistic regressions to examine transitions to second and third child births contingent upon gender of existing children and by migration status provides two main results. First, regarding evidence of gender preferences, the results show: mixed gender preferences and weak daughter preference among native French women when transitioning to the third parity; mixed gender preferences among second-generation Turkish immigrant women when transitioning to the third parity; and a daughter preference for second-generation North African, Sub-Saharan African and Vietnamese-Laos-Cambodian immigrant women when transitioning to the third parity. Second, for the immigrant sample, these preferences emerge in the face of declining fertility, across subsequent generations of immigrants, and on average as a deviation from their country of origin gender preferences. This not only points to the malleability of gender preferences for offspring but also lends credence to both the selection and adaptation hypotheses in explaining immigrant integration in France.
{"title":"Is There Evidence of Gender Preference for Offspring in France? Examining the Predilections of Native Women and Immigrant Women from Asia and Africa","authors":"Sehar Ezdi, S. Pastorelli","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2021-11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2021-11","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates gender preferences for offspring within the native French population and among immigrants from North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Turkey and Vietnam-Cambodia-Laos in France by combining the Family and Housing Survey (2011) and the Trajectories and Origins Survey (2008). In so doing, it is the first paper to examine the persistence (or lack thereof) of gender preferences among immigrants in France. This allows the findings of the paper to serve as a tool for monitoring the immigrant integration process in the country. Using (multilevel) logistic regressions to examine transitions to second and third child births contingent upon gender of existing children and by migration status provides two main results. First, regarding evidence of gender preferences, the results show: mixed gender preferences and weak daughter preference among native French women when transitioning to the third parity; mixed gender preferences among second-generation Turkish immigrant women when transitioning to the third parity; and a daughter preference for second-generation North African, Sub-Saharan African and Vietnamese-Laos-Cambodian immigrant women when transitioning to the third parity. Second, for the immigrant sample, these preferences emerge in the face of declining fertility, across subsequent generations of immigrants, and on average as a deviation from their country of origin gender preferences. This not only points to the malleability of gender preferences for offspring but also lends credence to both the selection and adaptation hypotheses in explaining immigrant integration in France.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"66518292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since 1971 the Swiss Federal Statistical Office has published annual fertility data split by nationality (Swiss/foreign). These indicate that the TFR for women of foreign nationality has been 0.5 children higher than for Swiss women for most of the period since 1991. However, statistics from household registration (STATPOP) and the Families and Generations Surveys (FGS) in 2013 and 2018 indicate that foreign women, approaching the end of their reproductive lives, have slightly smaller families than women of Swiss nationality. The purpose of this paper is to reconcile these contradictory fertility measures. To do this, we design a novel methodology for tallying the fertility of cohorts of Swiss and foreign nationals through their reproductive life. In addition to birth registrations and population totals by age (the input data for calculating the TFR) we also include estimates of how many children women have at the time of their immigration, emigration and naturalisation. Using these input data, we compile the fertility profiles of Swiss and foreign women aged 15-49 (cohorts 1966-2003). These correspond well with the FGS and household register data. Several processes impact the final fertility of the two sub-populations. Women frequently immigrate into Switzerland in their 20s. Often arriving childless, they commonly start childbearing soon after immigration. However, there is still a flow of low-fertility women into the country in their 30s and 40s, lowering the average fertility of the foreign population. By contrast, Swiss women start childbearing later and a significant proportion remain childless; however, after starting childbearing they have a higher propensity than foreign women to have a second and third child. Naturalisation and fertility are interlinked; women with children are more likely to naturalise than those without, which then boosts the average fertility of the Swiss population. We confirm that the standard TFR gives an inflated impression of the ultimate (cohort) fertility of foreign nationals and under-estimates that of Swiss women, and we describe how this happens. Fundamentally, the TFR is a measure of childbearing intensity, not an accurate estimate of completed cohort fertility, especially for a mobile population.
{"title":"Why the Standard TFR gives a Misleading Impression of the Fertility of Foreign Women: Insights from Switzerland","authors":"M. Burkimsher, C. Rossier, P. Wanner","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2020-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2020-23","url":null,"abstract":"Since 1971 the Swiss Federal Statistical Office has published annual fertility data split by nationality (Swiss/foreign). These indicate that the TFR for women of foreign nationality has been 0.5 children higher than for Swiss women for most of the period since 1991. However, statistics from household registration (STATPOP) and the Families and Generations Surveys (FGS) in 2013 and 2018 indicate that foreign women, approaching the end of their reproductive lives, have slightly smaller families than women of Swiss nationality. The purpose of this paper is to reconcile these contradictory fertility measures. To do this, we design a novel methodology for tallying the fertility of cohorts of Swiss and foreign nationals through their reproductive life. In addition to birth registrations and population totals by age (the input data for calculating the TFR) we also include estimates of how many children women have at the time of their immigration, emigration and naturalisation. Using these input data, we compile the fertility profiles of Swiss and foreign women aged 15-49 (cohorts 1966-2003). These correspond well with the FGS and household register data. \u0000Several processes impact the final fertility of the two sub-populations. Women frequently immigrate into Switzerland in their 20s. Often arriving childless, they commonly start childbearing soon after immigration. However, there is still a flow of low-fertility women into the country in their 30s and 40s, lowering the average fertility of the foreign population. By contrast, Swiss women start childbearing later and a significant proportion remain childless; however, after starting childbearing they have a higher propensity than foreign women to have a second and third child. Naturalisation and fertility are interlinked; women with children are more likely to naturalise than those without, which then boosts the average fertility of the Swiss population. \u0000We confirm that the standard TFR gives an inflated impression of the ultimate (cohort) fertility of foreign nationals and under-estimates that of Swiss women, and we describe how this happens. Fundamentally, the TFR is a measure of childbearing intensity, not an accurate estimate of completed cohort fertility, especially for a mobile population.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43255988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ravenstein, writing in 19th century papers, observed that migration varied with the life course. However, he did not investigate this variation in detail, as the necessary data were not then available. Age-specific migration has been a focus for researchers of migration in the 20th and 21st centuries. Building on this research, the current paper explores age-specific migration in Russia focussing on its spatial diversity. We compare age-specific migration patterns found in Russia and those observed in other developed countries. For this investigation, we mainly use Russian administrative data on residence registration for 2012-2016, together with information on populations by age in the latest census in 2010. The data are analysed using a classification of local administrative units classified by degree of remoteness from Russia’s principal cities (regional centres). The main results are as follows: In Russia, young people participate strongly in migration flows between peripheral territories and regional centres. The net migration surplus in regional centres is mostly produced by the migration of 15-19 year-olds starting further and higher education courses. Peak migration occurs in this age group. This type of migration represents upward mobility in the spatial hierarchy because institutions of higher education are located in the large cities. People aged 20-29 and 30-39 migrate in much smaller numbers, but they also replenish the population of regional centres. The inflow of middle-aged migrants and families with children was directed to the areas located closest to the regional centres, the suburbs. This type of migration is observed in regions with a well-developed middle class with high purchasing power, for example, in the city of Moscow and in the Moscow Region. Peripheral territories have similar profiles of age-specific migration, but of loss rather than gain. The farther they are from regional centres, the more significant the outflow of young people and the stronger the impact of migration on population ageing. The rural periphery and small cities attract only elderly migrants, but this inflow is far smaller than the outflow of young people. The directions and age selectivity of migration observed in other countries are thus also found in Russia, although there are important differences associated with the nature of housing in Russian cities and regions. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.
{"title":"Age-specific Migration in Regional Centres and Peripheral Areas of Russia","authors":"L. Karachurina, N. Mkrtchyan","doi":"10.12765/CPOS-2020-12EN","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/CPOS-2020-12EN","url":null,"abstract":"Ravenstein, writing in 19th century papers, observed that migration varied with the life course. However, he did not investigate this variation in detail, as the necessary data were not then available. Age-specific migration has been a focus for researchers of migration in the 20th and 21st centuries. Building on this research, the current paper explores age-specific migration in Russia focussing on its spatial diversity. We compare age-specific migration patterns found in Russia and those observed in other developed countries. For this investigation, we mainly use Russian administrative data on residence registration for 2012-2016, together with information on populations by age in the latest census in 2010. The data are analysed using a classification of local administrative units classified by degree of remoteness from Russia’s principal cities (regional centres). \u0000The main results are as follows: In Russia, young people participate strongly in migration flows between peripheral territories and regional centres. The net migration surplus in regional centres is mostly produced by the migration of 15-19 year-olds starting further and higher education courses. Peak migration occurs in this age group. This type of migration represents upward mobility in the spatial hierarchy because institutions of higher education are located in the large cities. People aged 20-29 and 30-39 migrate in much smaller numbers, but they also replenish the population of regional centres. The inflow of middle-aged migrants and families with children was directed to the areas located closest to the regional centres, the suburbs. This type of migration is observed in regions with a well-developed middle class with high purchasing power, for example, in the city of Moscow and in the Moscow Region. \u0000Peripheral territories have similar profiles of age-specific migration, but of loss rather than gain. The farther they are from regional centres, the more significant the outflow of young people and the stronger the impact of migration on population ageing. The rural periphery and small cities attract only elderly migrants, but this inflow is far smaller than the outflow of young people. The directions and age selectivity of migration observed in other countries are thus also found in Russia, although there are important differences associated with the nature of housing in Russian cities and regions. \u0000* This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46898148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Ravenstein, writing in 19th century papers, observed that migration varied with the life course. However, he did not investigate this variation in detail, as the necessary data were not then available. Age-specific migration has been a focus for researchers of migration in the 20th and 21st centuries. Building on this research, the current paper explores age-specific migration in Russia focussing on its spatial diversity. We compare age-specific migration patterns found in Russia and those observed in other developed countries. For this investigation, we mainly use Russian administrative data on residence registration for 2012-2016, together with information on populations by age in the latest census in 2010. The data are analysed using a classification of local administrative units classified by degree of remoteness from Russia’s principal cities (regional centres).
The main results are as follows: In Russia, young people participate strongly in migration flows between peripheral territories and regional centres. The net migration surplus in regional centres is mostly produced by the migration of 15-19 year-olds starting further and higher education courses. Peak migration occurs in this age group. This type of migration represents upward mobility in the spatial hierarchy because institutions of higher education are located in the large cities. People aged 20-29 and 30-39 migrate in much smaller numbers, but they also replenish the population of regional centres. The inflow of middle-aged migrants and families with children was directed to the areas located closest to the regional centres, the suburbs. This type of migration is observed in regions with a well-developed middle class with high purchasing power, for example, in the city of Moscow and in the Moscow Region.
Peripheral territories have similar profiles of age-specific migration, but of loss rather than gain. The farther they are from regional centres, the more significant the outflow of young people and the stronger the impact of migration on population ageing. The rural periphery and small cities attract only elderly migrants, but this inflow is far smaller than the outflow of young people. The directions and age selectivity of migration observed in other countries are thus also found in Russia, although there are important differences associated with the nature of housing in Russian cities and regions.
* This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.
{"title":"Age-specific Migration in Regional Centres and Peripheral Areas of Russia","authors":"Liliya Karachurina,Nikita Mkrtchyan","doi":"10.12765/cpos-2020-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12765/cpos-2020-12","url":null,"abstract":"Ravenstein, writing in 19th century papers, observed that migration varied with the life course. However, he did not investigate this variation in detail, as the necessary data were not then available. Age-specific migration has been a focus for researchers of migration in the 20th and 21st centuries. Building on this research, the current paper explores age-specific migration in Russia focussing on its spatial diversity. We compare age-specific migration patterns found in Russia and those observed in other developed countries. For this investigation, we mainly use Russian administrative data on residence registration for 2012-2016, together with information on populations by age in the latest census in 2010. The data are analysed using a classification of local administrative units classified by degree of remoteness from Russia’s principal cities (regional centres).
The main results are as follows: In Russia, young people participate strongly in migration flows between peripheral territories and regional centres. The net migration surplus in regional centres is mostly produced by the migration of 15-19 year-olds starting further and higher education courses. Peak migration occurs in this age group. This type of migration represents upward mobility in the spatial hierarchy because institutions of higher education are located in the large cities. People aged 20-29 and 30-39 migrate in much smaller numbers, but they also replenish the population of regional centres. The inflow of middle-aged migrants and families with children was directed to the areas located closest to the regional centres, the suburbs. This type of migration is observed in regions with a well-developed middle class with high purchasing power, for example, in the city of Moscow and in the Moscow Region.
Peripheral territories have similar profiles of age-specific migration, but of loss rather than gain. The farther they are from regional centres, the more significant the outflow of young people and the stronger the impact of migration on population ageing. The rural periphery and small cities attract only elderly migrants, but this inflow is far smaller than the outflow of young people. The directions and age selectivity of migration observed in other countries are thus also found in Russia, although there are important differences associated with the nature of housing in Russian cities and regions.
* This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”.","PeriodicalId":44592,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Population Studies","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2020-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138528149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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