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Institutionalizing Instability: The Constitutional Roots of Insecurity in Nigeria's Fourth Republic 制度化的不稳定:尼日利亚第四共和国不安全的宪法根源
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-09-30 DOI: 10.5334/STA.458
Hilary Matfess
Nigeria’s return to democracy has been a tumultuous era; the Fourth Republic has been characterized by insurgencies and violence throughout the country. Though seemingly disparate movements, the violence of the Fourth Republic has its roots in the country’s constitution. Three aspects of the 1999 Nigerian constitution stand out as particularly problematic: the centralization of the police at the federal level with limited sub-national oversight, the ambiguous concept of indigeneity, and the overlapping, often contradictory land tenure systems endorsed. All of these allude to the precariousness of Nigerian federalism under the current constitution; ultimately, the police centralization primes the country for violence, while the indigeneity rules and land tenure system make it more difficult to negotiate stable post-conflict settlements. The country’s recent experience with Boko Haram will be used to illustrate how these constitutional tenets facilitate instability.
尼日利亚回归民主是一个动荡的时代;第四共和国的特点是全国各地的叛乱和暴力。尽管看似不同的运动,第四共和国的暴力根源在于该国的宪法。1999年尼日利亚宪法有三个方面的问题特别突出:联邦一级警察的中央集权,地方监督有限,土著概念的模糊,以及重叠,经常相互矛盾的土地所有权制度。所有这些都暗示了在现行宪法下尼日利亚联邦制的不稳定性;最终,警察的集中化为该国的暴力行为做好了准备,而土著规则和土地保有制度则使谈判稳定的冲突后解决方案变得更加困难。尼日利亚最近对付博科圣地的经验将被用来说明这些宪法原则是如何助长不稳定的。
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引用次数: 7
Implementing DDR in Settings of Ongoing Conflict: The Organization and Fragmentation of Armed Groups in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 在持续冲突背景下实施复员方案:刚果民主共和国武装团体的组织和分裂
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-09-27 DOI: 10.5334/STA.467
J. Richards
Although it is common for armed groups to splinter (or “fragment”) during contexts of multi-party civil war, current guidance on Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) does not address the challenges that arise when recalcitrant fighters, unwilling to report to DDR, break ranks and form new armed groups. This Practice Note addresses this issue, drawing lessons from the multi-party context of the DRC and from the experiences of former members of three armed groups: the Rally for Congolese Democracy-Goma (RCD-Goma), the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP), and the DRC national army (FARDC). While the findings indicate that the fragmentation of armed groups may encourage desertion and subsequent participation in DDR, they also show that active armed groups may monitor DDR programs and track those who demobilize. Remobilization may follow, either as active armed groups target ex-combatants for forced re-recruitment or as ex-combatants remobilize in armed groups of their own choice. Given these dynamics, practitioners in settings of partial peace may find it useful to consider non-traditional methods of DDR such as the use of mobile patrols and mobile disarmament units. The temporary relocation of ex-combatants to safe areas free from armed groups, or to protected transitional assistance camps, may also help to minimize remobilization during the reintegration phase.
虽然武装团体在多方内战的背景下分裂(或“分裂”)是很常见的,但目前关于解除武装、复员和重返社会(DDR)的指导方针并没有解决当顽固的战斗人员不愿向DDR报告、叛变并组建新的武装团体时所产生的挑战。本练习备考从刚果民主共和国的多党制背景和三个武装团体前成员的经验中吸取了教训,这些武装团体是:刚果民主联盟-戈马(RCD-Goma)、保卫人民全国代表大会(CNDP)和刚果民主共和国国民军(FARDC)。虽然调查结果表明,武装团体的分裂可能会鼓励遗弃和随后参与复员,但它们也表明,活跃的武装团体可能会监督复员方案并跟踪复员人员。随后可能会进行复员,要么是活跃的武装团体将前战斗人员作为强迫重新招募的目标,要么是前战斗人员自行选择在武装团体中复员。鉴于这些动态,部分和平环境下的从业人员可能会发现考虑非传统的复员方法,例如使用流动巡逻队和流动解除武装部队是有益的。将前战斗人员临时迁往没有武装团体的安全区,或迁往受保护的过渡援助营地,也可能有助于尽量减少在重返社会阶段的重新部署。
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引用次数: 8
The Disintegration of the Military Integration Process in South Sudan (2006–2013) 南苏丹军事一体化进程的解体(2006-2013)
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-09-27 DOI: 10.5334/STA.460
L. Warner
This article argues that military integration served a critical purpose in 2006, arguably preventing large-scale conflict within South Sudan and ensuring a level of stability prior to the CPA-mandated referendum on self-determination in 2011. Nonetheless, integration was poorly-conceived and implemented, and received limited support from third party actors that were more focused on rightsizing the SPLA and transforming it into a conventional, professional military. The de facto open-door nature of South Sudan’s integration process created incentives for armed rebellion, while failed rightsizing initiatives increased pressure on the military integration process as the most expedient way of mitigating the threat these groups posed to stability. Integration thus became an end in and of itself rather than a transitional measure to contain former combatants while the government worked out a more long-term solution for South Sudan’s security sector. Consequently, the SPLA was in a state of arrested development, preventing efforts to transform the military from gaining traction, and making the force more likely to fragment along factional lines during periods of heightened political competition.
本文认为,军事一体化在2006年起到了关键作用,可以说是防止了南苏丹境内的大规模冲突,并确保了2011年cpa授权的自决公投之前的稳定水平。尽管如此,整合的构思和实施都很糟糕,并且从第三方行动者那里得到的支持有限,这些行动者更关注于调整苏丹人民解放军的规模,将其转变为一支传统的专业军队。南苏丹一体化进程事实上的开放性质为武装叛乱创造了动机,而失败的精简举措增加了军事一体化进程的压力,这是减轻这些团体对稳定构成威胁的最权宜之计。因此,在政府为南苏丹安全部门制定更长期的解决方案时,融合本身成为了一种目的,而不是遏制前战斗人员的过渡措施。因此,苏丹人民解放军处于一种发展停滞的状态,阻止了改革军队的努力获得动力,并使该部队更有可能在政治竞争加剧期间沿派系分裂。
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引用次数: 11
“Life and Debt”: Assessing the Impacts of Participatory Housing Reconstruction in Post-Conflict Sri Lanka “生命与债务”:评估冲突后斯里兰卡参与式住房重建的影响
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-08-15 DOI: 10.5334/STA.434
Vagisha I. Gunasekara, Mira Philips, K. Romeshun, Mohammed Munas
The Owner Driven Housing Assistance (ODHA) scheme is a donor and government supported initiative to help construct housing for internally displaced persons (IDPs) returning to their original areas of residence after the end of the Sri Lankan Civil War in 2009. While ODHA is a commendable initiative for rebuilding the lives of those displaced by war, available evidence indicates an increase in household debt among the beneficiaries of such housing schemes and their vulnerability to livelihood insecurities after resettlement. Based on an analysis of the socio-economic status of ODHA beneficiaries in the northern Sri Lankan districts of Mullaitivu, Kilinochchi and Jaffna, this paper concludes that the financing modality of the housing programme has had a catalytic effect on indebtedness among beneficiaries. An inadequate understanding of the social, economic and cultural contexts that define the lives of beneficiaries on the part of donors and implementers appears to be contributing to unintended and negative repercussions of housing assistance. This paper illustrates how post-war participatory development projects such as the ODHA scheme can further exacerbate the vulnerability of war-affected populations, unless donors and policy makers have a holistic understanding of the varying contexts that define the experiences of those receiving development assistance.
业主推动的住房援助(ODHA)计划是由捐助者和政府支持的一项倡议,旨在帮助2009年斯里兰卡内战结束后返回原居住地的国内流离失所者(IDPs)建造住房。虽然人道主义事务部是重建因战争而流离失所者生活的一项值得赞扬的倡议,但现有证据表明,这种住房计划的受益者的家庭债务增加,他们在重新安置后易受生计不安全的影响。根据对斯里兰卡北部Mullaitivu、Kilinochchi和Jaffna地区的人道主义事务部受益者的社会经济地位的分析,本文得出结论,住房方案的筹资方式对受益者的负债产生了催化作用。捐助者和执行者对决定受益者生活的社会、经济和文化背景了解不足,似乎助长了住房援助产生的意想不到的消极影响。本文说明了战后参与性发展项目,如ODHA计划,如何进一步加剧受战争影响人口的脆弱性,除非捐助者和决策者对确定接受发展援助的人的经历的不同背景有一个全面的了解。
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引用次数: 6
Reversing the Stabilisation Paradigm: Towards an Alternative Approach 逆转稳定范式:走向另一种方法
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-08-08 DOI: 10.5334/STA.455
M. Knight
An examination of the dialogue concerning Stabilisation illuminates a paradigm based on the ideas of the so-called ‘liberal peace’ – defined minimally as democracy and free markets. This model proposes that if the liberal peace is delivered at the sub-national level via Stabilisation interventions, then the desired outcome would be ‘stability’. However, commentators of Stabilisation generally agree that the liberal peace is an unachievable objective that inhibits the desired outcome of ‘stability’. This Practice Note contests this analysis and instead argues that ‘stability’ is an unachievable objective that inhibits the desired outcome of a liberal democratic functioning state. Therefore, Stabilisation’s desired outcome becomes the protection and enjoyment of human rights, rather than ‘stability’. This practice note continues its examination of Stabilisation and comes to the conclusion that Stabilisaton can be understood as political actions in support of an ideological outcome. This understanding of Stabilisation is compatible with existing international engagements in support of national transition processes and can be applied across the spectrum from consent to coercion.
对有关稳定的对话的考察阐明了一种基于所谓“自由和平”思想的范式-最低限度地定义为民主和自由市场。该模型提出,如果通过稳定干预在次国家层面实现自由和平,那么期望的结果将是“稳定”。然而,《稳定》的评论者普遍认为,自由和平是一个无法实现的目标,它抑制了“稳定”的预期结果。这篇练习备考对这种分析提出了质疑,相反,它认为“稳定”是一个无法实现的目标,它会抑制自由民主运作国家的预期结果。因此,稳定所期望的结果是保护和享受人权,而不是“稳定”。本练习笔记继续考察稳定,并得出结论,稳定可以理解为支持意识形态结果的政治行动。这种对“稳定”的理解与支持国家过渡进程的现有国际合作是相容的,可以应用于从同意到强制的各个方面。
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引用次数: 2
The Evolution of the Internet in Ethiopia and Rwanda: Towards a “Developmental” Model? 互联网在埃塞俄比亚和卢旺达的演变:走向“发展”模式?
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-08-02 DOI: 10.5334/STA.344
I. Gagliardone, F. Golooba-Mutebi
The Internet in Africa has become an increasingly contested space, where competing ideas of development and society battle for hegemony. By comparing the evolution of the Internet in Ethiopia and Rwanda, we question whether policies and projects emerging from two of Africa’s fastest growing, but also most tightly controlled countries, can be understood as part of a relatively cohesive model of the ‘developmental’ Internet, which challenges mainstream conceptions. Our answer is a qualified yes. Ethiopia and Rwanda have shared an overarching strategy which places the state as the prime mover in the development of Internet policy and large-scale ICT projects. Rwanda, however, appears to have developed a more open model which can accommodate a greater variety of actors and opinions, and incorporate them within a relatively coherent vision that emanates from the centre. Ethiopia, in contrast, has developed a more closed model, where all powers rest firmly in the hands of a government that has refused (so far) to entertain and engage with alternative ideas of the Internet. In the case of Rwanda, we argue, this approach reflects broader strategies adopted by the government in the economic domain but appears to counter the prevailing political approach of the government, allowing for a greater degree of freedom on the Internet as compared to traditional media. While in the case of Ethiopia, the opposite is true; Ethiopia’s Internet policies appear to run counter to prevailing economic policies but fit tightly with the government’s approach to politics and governance.
非洲的互联网已经成为一个竞争日益激烈的空间,发展和社会的竞争思想争夺霸权。通过比较埃塞俄比亚和卢旺达的互联网发展,我们质疑,这两个非洲发展最快、管控最严格的国家的政策和项目,是否可以被理解为“发展”互联网相对有凝聚力模式的一部分,这挑战了主流观念。我们的回答是有条件的肯定。埃塞俄比亚和卢旺达共同制定了一项总体战略,将国家置于互联网政策和大型ICT项目发展的主要推动者地位。然而,卢旺达似乎发展了一种更开放的模式,可以容纳更多不同的行动者和意见,并将它们纳入从中心发出的相对连贯的愿景。相比之下,埃塞俄比亚发展了一种更封闭的模式,所有权力都牢牢掌握在政府手中,而政府(到目前为止)拒绝接受和参与互联网的其他想法。我们认为,在卢旺达的情况下,这种方法反映了政府在经济领域采取的更广泛的战略,但似乎与政府的主流政治方法相反,与传统媒体相比,允许互联网上有更大程度的自由。而在埃塞俄比亚,情况正好相反;埃塞俄比亚的互联网政策似乎与主流经济政策背道而驰,但却与政府的政治和治理方式紧密契合。
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引用次数: 11
Poverty Eradication in Fragile Places: Prospects for Harvesting the Highest Hanging Fruit by 2030 《脆弱地区消除贫困:到2030年收获最高果实的前景》
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-07-25 DOI: 10.5334/STA.435
Gary J. Milante, B. Hughes, A. Burt
This paper explores the range of likely and potential progress on poverty eradication in fragile states to 2030. Using the International Futures model and recently released 2011 International Comparison Program data, this paper calculates current (2015) poverty for a US$1.90 poverty line, and subsequently runs three scenarios. The estimates suggest that there are 485 million poor in fragile states in 2015, a 33.5 per cent poverty rate. This paper’s Base Case scenario results in a forecasted 22.8 per cent poverty rate in fragile states by 2030. The most optimistic scenario yields a 13.1 per cent poverty rate for this group of countries (257 million). An optimistic scenario reflecting political constraints in fragile states yields a 19.1 per cent poverty rate (376 million). Even under the most optimistic circumstances, fragile states will almost certainly be home to hundreds of millions of poor in 2030, suggesting that the world must do things dramatically differently if we are to reach the high hanging fruit and truly ‘leave no one behind’ in the next fifteen years of development.
本文探讨了到2030年脆弱国家在消除贫困方面可能取得和潜在进展的范围。本文利用国际期货模型和最近发布的2011年国际比较项目数据,以1.90美元的贫困线计算当前(2015年)的贫困水平,并随后运行了三种情景。据估计,2015年脆弱国家有4.85亿贫困人口,贫困率为33.5%。根据本文的基本情景,到2030年脆弱国家的贫困率预计将达到22.8%。最乐观的情况是这一组国家的贫困率为13.1%(2.57亿)。反映脆弱国家政治制约因素的乐观设想是贫困率为19.1%(3.76亿)。即使在最乐观的情况下,到2030年,脆弱国家也几乎肯定会有数亿贫困人口,这表明,如果我们要在未来15年的发展中实现唾手可得的成果,真正“不让任何一个人掉队”,世界必须采取截然不同的行动。
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引用次数: 8
Mass Claims in Land and Property Following the Arab Spring: Lessons from Yemen 阿拉伯之春后土地和财产的大规模索赔:也门的教训
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-07-08 DOI: 10.5334/STA.444
J. Unruh
The Arab Spring uprisings have released a flood of land and property conflicts, brought about by decades of autocratic rule. Expropriations, corruption, poor performance of the rule of law, patronage and sectarian discrimination built up a wide variety of land and property transgressions over approximately 30 years. The result has been the creation of longstanding, acute grievances among large components of national populations who now seek to act on them. If new, transitional or reforming governments and their international partners fail to effectively attend to such grievances, the populations concerned may act on them in ways that detract from stability. This article critiques the case of Yemen, whose transitional government, with international support, initiated a land and property mass claims process in the South in order to address a primary grievance of the southern population as part of the National Dialogue transition. A series of techniques are described that would greatly improve the mass claims process once it inevitably recommences after the Houthi conflict comes to an end. These improvements would attach more importance to socio-political realities and how to quickly attend to them, as opposed to an over-reliance on specific legalities. Such an approach could have wider utility among Arab Spring states seeking to address similar land and property grievances.
阿拉伯之春起义释放了数十年专制统治带来的大量土地和财产冲突。征用、腐败、法治表现不佳、庇护和宗派歧视在大约30年的时间里造成了各种各样的土地和财产违法行为。其结果是在国家人口的很大组成部分中产生了长期的、尖锐的不满,这些人现在寻求采取行动。如果新的、过渡的或改革的政府及其国际伙伴不能有效地解决这些不满,有关民众可能会以有损稳定的方式对这些不满采取行动。本文批评了也门的案例,其过渡政府在国际支持下,在南方启动了土地和财产大规模索赔程序,以解决南方人口的主要不满,作为全国对话过渡的一部分。报告描述了一系列技术,一旦在胡塞冲突结束后不可避免地重新开始,这些技术将大大改善大规模索赔程序。这些改进将更加重视社会政治现实以及如何迅速处理这些现实,而不是过分依赖具体的法律。在寻求解决类似土地和财产问题的阿拉伯之春国家中,这种方法可能会有更广泛的效用。
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引用次数: 5
Toward a Realistic and Responsible Idea of Stabilisation 走向现实和负责任的稳定理念
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-06-15 DOI: 10.5334/STA.414
P. Rotmann
What is stabilisation, and why do we need a conceptual discussion? Based on interviews and policy documents from Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States, this article distils two conceptual visions of stabilisation, outlines a range of institutional and budgetary designs and offers a number of lessons of what a realistic and responsible idea of stabilisation might look like. Given the ubiquity of fragility and the lack of generalised knowledge about social engineering, this article argues in favour of a narrow understanding of stabilisation that seeks only to mitigate acute situations of crisis marked by extreme political volatility and violence. Even this more limited goal is ambitious enough to require sober assessment and communication of risk, continuing improvements to the conceptual and institutional tools for stabilisation and stronger commitment to constant reflection and learning.
什么是稳定,为什么我们需要一个概念性的讨论?基于采访和来自加拿大、德国、荷兰、英国和美国的政策文件,本文提炼出两种稳定的概念性愿景,概述了一系列制度和预算设计,并提供了一些关于现实和负责任的稳定理念的经验教训。鉴于脆弱性的普遍存在和缺乏关于社会工程的一般知识,本文赞成对稳定的狭隘理解,即只寻求缓解以极端政治动荡和暴力为特征的严重危机局势。即使是这个更有限的目标,也足够雄心勃勃,需要对风险进行清醒的评估和沟通,不断改进稳定的概念和体制工具,并更坚定地致力于不断反思和学习。
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引用次数: 10
Migratory Crisis in the Mediterranean: Managing Irregular Flows 地中海的移徙危机:管理非正常流动
IF 1.2 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2016-05-12 DOI: 10.5334/STA.441
Susana Ferreira
The current migratory crisis in the Mediterranean questions the European Union’s (EU) capacity to manage migratory flows. So far, the EU has placed a particular emphasis on border management, given a lack of political will that continues to prevent more in depth institutional responses. The current situation in the Mediterranean, and the EU’s response is a cause of concern due to the risk it represents to the human security of migrants, and the questions it raises regarding the management of migratory flows within the EU. The major question to emerge during this crisis is: How does the EU manage irregular migration flows while safeguarding migrants’ human rights?
目前地中海地区的移民危机对欧洲联盟管理移民流动的能力提出了质疑。到目前为止,欧盟特别强调边境管理,因为缺乏政治意愿,继续阻止更深入的机构反应。地中海目前的局势以及欧盟的应对措施令人担忧,因为它对移民的人身安全构成了威胁,并引发了有关欧盟内部移民流动管理的问题。在这场危机中出现的主要问题是:欧盟如何在保障移民人权的同时管理非正规移民流动?
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引用次数: 10
期刊
Stability-International Journal of Security and Development
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