Advanced economies must focus on improving productivity in order to achieve long-term sustainable economic growth. Increases in traditional inputs – labour and capital – can only go so far before generating diminishing returns. These economies, such as Canada’s, must then look beyond traditional inputs and seek to increase their productivity through competition and innovation. Financial services have a vital role to play in these efforts.
Unfortunately, Canada’s productivity growth has lagged behind that of its international peers for the past 15 years. The financial services sector, with its unique ability to improve its own productivity and the overall economy’s, has also fallen short in contributing to Canada’s overall productivity growth over that period. Improving the financial services sector’s productivity would not only boost its performance, but also that of Canada’s economy as a whole. In this Commentary, we focus on Canada’s financial services’ regulatory framework and its impact on productivity growth through three different channels: competition, attracting capital, and the allocation of capital.
Canada’s current regulatory framework has improved over the past decade; however, more could be done to remove regulatory barriers that hamper competition, the progress of innovative firms, and better reflect international best practices. Restrictive regulation and policy hinder productivity growth through their effects on competition, the environment they create for attracting foreign capital, and potential distortions in the allocation of capital.
To address these challenges, this Commentary recommends the following:
• a flexible regulatory approach that is both function based and proportional to functional risk;
• regulatory mandates that include more explicit references to competition as a way of spurring innovation;
• monitoring the new rules around the flexibility of banks to participate and invest in fintechs and other innovative technology-led institutions;
• improving the collection and sharing of financial market data between federal and provincial regulators;
• improving access for small and medium-sized businesses to affordable capital; and
• changing the incentive structure so that financial institutions move away from a focus on mortgage lending to one on business lending.
{"title":"Productivity and the Financial Services Sector – How to Achieve New Heights","authors":"Farah Omran, Jeremy M. Kronick","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3478694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3478694","url":null,"abstract":"Advanced economies must focus on improving productivity in order to achieve long-term sustainable economic growth. Increases in traditional inputs – labour and capital – can only go so far before generating diminishing returns. These economies, such as Canada’s, must then look beyond traditional inputs and seek to increase their productivity through competition and innovation. Financial services have a vital role to play in these efforts.<br><br>Unfortunately, Canada’s productivity growth has lagged behind that of its international peers for the past 15 years. The financial services sector, with its unique ability to improve its own productivity and the overall economy’s, has also fallen short in contributing to Canada’s overall productivity growth over that period. Improving the financial services sector’s productivity would not only boost its performance, but also that of Canada’s economy as a whole. In this Commentary, we focus on Canada’s financial services’ regulatory framework and its impact on productivity growth through three different channels: competition, attracting capital, and the allocation of capital.<br><br>Canada’s current regulatory framework has improved over the past decade; however, more could be done to remove regulatory barriers that hamper competition, the progress of innovative firms, and better reflect international best practices. Restrictive regulation and policy hinder productivity growth through their effects on competition, the environment they create for attracting foreign capital, and potential distortions in the allocation of capital.<br><br>To address these challenges, this Commentary recommends the following:<br><br>• a flexible regulatory approach that is both function based and proportional to functional risk;<br><br>• regulatory mandates that include more explicit references to competition as a way of spurring innovation;<br><br>• monitoring the new rules around the flexibility of banks to participate and invest in fintechs and other innovative technology-led institutions;<br><br>• improving the collection and sharing of financial market data between federal and provincial regulators;<br><br>• improving access for small and medium-sized businesses to affordable capital; and<br><br>• changing the incentive structure so that financial institutions move away from a focus on mortgage lending to one on business lending.<br>","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132503016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jangho Yang, T. Heinrich, Julian Winkler, F. Lafond, P. Koutroumpis, J. Farmer
Productivity levels and growth are extremely heterogeneous among firms. A vast literature has developed to explain the origins of productivity shocks, their dispersion, evolution and their relationship to the business cycle. We examine in detail the distribution of labor productivity levels and growth, and observe that they exhibit heavy tails. We propose to model these distributions using the four parameter Levy stable distribution, a natural candidate deriving from the generalised Central Limit Theorem. We show that it is a better fit than several standard alternatives, and is remarkably consistent over time, countries and sectors. In all samples considered, the tail parameter is such that the theoretical variance of the distribution is infinite, so that the sample standard deviation increases with sample size. We find a consistent positive skewness, a markedly different behaviour between the left and right tails, and a positive relationship between productivity and size. The distributional approach allows us to test different measures of dispersion and find that productivity dispersion has slightly decreased over the past decade.
{"title":"Measuring Productivity Dispersion: A Parametric Approach Using the Lévy Alpha-Stable Distribution","authors":"Jangho Yang, T. Heinrich, Julian Winkler, F. Lafond, P. Koutroumpis, J. Farmer","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3468301","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3468301","url":null,"abstract":"Productivity levels and growth are extremely heterogeneous among firms. A vast literature has developed to explain the origins of productivity shocks, their dispersion, evolution and their relationship to the business cycle. We examine in detail the distribution of labor productivity levels and growth, and observe that they exhibit heavy tails. We propose to model these distributions using the four parameter Levy stable distribution, a natural candidate deriving from the generalised Central Limit Theorem. We show that it is a better fit than several standard alternatives, and is remarkably consistent over time, countries and sectors. In all samples considered, the tail parameter is such that the theoretical variance of the distribution is infinite, so that the sample standard deviation increases with sample size. We find a consistent positive skewness, a markedly different behaviour between the left and right tails, and a positive relationship between productivity and size. The distributional approach allows us to test different measures of dispersion and find that productivity dispersion has slightly decreased over the past decade.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124835966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study contributes to the existing literature on the impact of conference presentations on career progression by quantifying the predictive power of conferences for publication success. Examining outcomes for more than 4000 papers presented at three leading economics conferences over the 2006–2012 period, we find a positive link between conference presentations and the publishing probability in high-quality journals. This impact is most profound for prominent authors and male authors. In contrast, lesser known authors and female authors appear to gain less from conferences. Additionally, participating in major conferences is also associated with improved metrics for other measures of academic success such as the number of citations or abstract views. Further examination shows that annual meetings of the American Economic Association are particularly valuable in these dimensions.
{"title":"Conference Presentations and Academic Publishing","authors":"Y. Gorodnichenko, Tho Pham, Oleksandr Talavera","doi":"10.3386/w26240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w26240","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study contributes to the existing literature on the impact of conference presentations on career progression by quantifying the predictive power of conferences for publication success. Examining outcomes for more than 4000 papers presented at three leading economics conferences over the 2006–2012 period, we find a positive link between conference presentations and the publishing probability in high-quality journals. This impact is most profound for prominent authors and male authors. In contrast, lesser known authors and female authors appear to gain less from conferences. Additionally, participating in major conferences is also associated with improved metrics for other measures of academic success such as the number of citations or abstract views. Further examination shows that annual meetings of the American Economic Association are particularly valuable in these dimensions.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"211 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123017398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We engaged randomized control trial to measure the effects of an agricultural health training intervention among 480 randomly assigned crop farmers from 24 farming communities in Nigeria. Structured questionnaire, interviews and random farm visit were used for data collection. The intervention component includes one-time village level agricultural health training and a three-month farm safety mobile text messaging follow up. We engaged a peer-developed module covering safe ergonomic practices and safe use of agrochemicals for the training. Findings from the study revealed that every one day increase in sickness absence decreases farmers’ labour productivity by 3% (p
{"title":"How Can Inclusive Agricultural Health Policy Intervention Promote Shared Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria? Evidence from Randomized Control Trial","authors":"T. Olowogbon, R. Babatunde, E. Asiedu","doi":"10.3386/W26043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W26043","url":null,"abstract":"We engaged randomized control trial to measure the effects of an agricultural health training intervention among 480 randomly assigned crop farmers from 24 farming communities in Nigeria. Structured questionnaire, interviews and random farm visit were used for data collection. The intervention component includes one-time village level agricultural health training and a three-month farm safety mobile text messaging follow up. We engaged a peer-developed module covering safe ergonomic practices and safe use of agrochemicals for the training. Findings from the study revealed that every one day increase in sickness absence decreases farmers’ labour productivity by 3% (p","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130767865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I develop a general framework for ex-ante analysis of a policy's effect on productivity. I use it to study the effect of carbon taxation on power plant productivity in the United States. Carbon taxes increase the price of burning fossil fuels, potentially encouraging power plants to be more fuel efficient. Whether carbon taxes do so is ambiguous because carbon taxes also increase the overall cost of electricity production, encouraging power plants to reduce output which reduces the plant's incentive to take costly actions to be more productive. I find carbon taxation reduces fuel productivity at commonly-proposed carbon taxes.
{"title":"Ex-ante Evaluation of a Policy's Effect on Productivity: The Substitution and Scale Effects of Carbon Taxation on Power Plant Productivity","authors":"Zach Flynn","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3223189","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3223189","url":null,"abstract":"I develop a general framework for ex-ante analysis of a policy's effect on productivity. I use it to study the effect of carbon taxation on power plant productivity in the United States. Carbon taxes increase the price of burning fossil fuels, potentially encouraging power plants to be more fuel efficient. Whether carbon taxes do so is ambiguous because carbon taxes also increase the overall cost of electricity production, encouraging power plants to reduce output which reduces the plant's incentive to take costly actions to be more productive. I find carbon taxation reduces fuel productivity at commonly-proposed carbon taxes.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129224618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The reallocation of resources from low- to high-productivity firms can generate large aggregate productivity gains. The paper uses data from the Malaysian manufacturing censuses of 2005 and 2010 to measure the country’s hypothetical productivity gains if all misallocation within industries are removed. Comparing the results across the two census waves, we conclude that efficiency gaps (that is, the degree of misallocation) in Malaysia have narrowed by one-fifth. The efficiency gaps, however, appear to be over 40 percent, indicating a substantial room for improvement. This is important, particularly if total factor productivity growth is expected to support future economic growth. The analysis in this paper accounts only for resource misallocation within sectors. There may be other, possibly large, resource misallocation across sectors. Closing those gaps could boost total factor productivity and gross domestic product growth even further.
{"title":"Resource Misallocation Leading to Productivity Gaps in Malaysia's Manufacturing Sector?","authors":"Lay Lian Chuah, Norman V. Loayza, H. Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3400507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3400507","url":null,"abstract":"The reallocation of resources from low- to high-productivity firms can generate large aggregate productivity gains. The paper uses data from the Malaysian manufacturing censuses of 2005 and 2010 to measure the country’s hypothetical productivity gains if all misallocation within industries are removed. Comparing the results across the two census waves, we conclude that efficiency gaps (that is, the degree of misallocation) in Malaysia have narrowed by one-fifth. The efficiency gaps, however, appear to be over 40 percent, indicating a substantial room for improvement. This is important, particularly if total factor productivity growth is expected to support future economic growth. The analysis in this paper accounts only for resource misallocation within sectors. There may be other, possibly large, resource misallocation across sectors. Closing those gaps could boost total factor productivity and gross domestic product growth even further.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115813651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Female-run firms are less likely to be exporters although they exert positive influence in various aspects in an economy and society. With a new and comprehensive data set on manufacturing plants, I investigate the exporter productivity premium of female-run firms in Germany. The results show that female-run firms gain a higher exporter-productivity premium than male-run firms. I find evidence for selection into exporting but no impact for learning from exporting for female-run exporting firms. These results give hint to discrimination barriers that female-run firms face when they are exporting as compared to male-run firm exporters.
{"title":"The Gender Gap in International Trade: Female-run Firms and the Exporter Productivity Premium","authors":"Astrid Krenz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3377140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3377140","url":null,"abstract":"Female-run firms are less likely to be exporters although they exert positive influence in various aspects in an economy and society. With a new and comprehensive data set on manufacturing plants, I investigate the exporter productivity premium of female-run firms in Germany. The results show that female-run firms gain a higher exporter-productivity premium than male-run firms. I find evidence for selection into exporting but no impact for learning from exporting for female-run exporting firms. These results give hint to discrimination barriers that female-run firms face when they are exporting as compared to male-run firm exporters.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"84 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121913431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Spanish Abstract: ¿Cómo se propagan choques microeconómicos heterogéneos en una red productiva? Este documento estudia la difusión de los choques de productividad en las redes de empresas, donde (1) existe una competencia imperfecta; y (2) la quiebra de las empresas es una posibilidad. Para (1) se supone que cada empresa debe elegir, para cada uno de sus insumos, un proveedor entre un subconjunto de empresas competidoras que fijan los precios de sus productos. Cuando lo hace, el comprador acepta el precio establecido por el proveedor y puede exigir, a ese precio, la cantidad que desea; sin embargo, con cierta probabilidad, la transacción podría fallar, por ejemplo, los productos no tienen la calidad o características esperadas, lo que causa pérdidas para el comprador. Esta probabilidad es mayor para los proveedores no habituales del comprador, que tienen que ofrecer precios más bajos para poder competir. En este contexto, el comprador no solo busca el mayor beneficio esperado, sino también el menor riesgo de pérdida, lo que lo lleva a asignar una probabilidad de contratación a cada proveedor. Por lo tanto, la decisión del comprador se modela de manera diferente de la maximización clásica de la utilidad esperada, lo que nos permite representar un continuo de poder de mercado, diferente del clásico Cournot o Bertrand. Con respecto a (2), una vez que se realizan las asignaciones de los contratos, se producen todos los bienes, se pagan los salarios y el hogar representativo define sus canastas de consumo y se obtienen los beneficios de las empresas. Aquí, aquellas empresas con peor desempeño relativo durante más tiempo tienen mayores posibilidades de quiebra. Los resultados de este modelo muestran diferentes efectos en cascada sobre los precios y las cantidades que se comercializan en la red productiva. En particular, existe un efecto de cascada "aguas arriba" en la quiebra de empresas a lo largo del tiempo, que se transmite exclusivamente a los proveedores de menor riesgo en la red.
English Abstract: How do macroeconomic shocks propagate in a productive network? This document studies the diffusion of productivity shocks in networks of firms, where (1) there is imperfect competition; and (2) firms’ bankruptcy is a possibility. For (1) it is assumed that each company has to choose, for each one of its inputs, a provider among a subset of competing firms; when it does so, the buyer accepts the supplier-set price and can demand, at that price, the amount of the input it wants; however, with some probability, the transaction could fail -for example, the goods have not the expected quality or characteristics- causing losses to the buyer; this probability is greater for non-habitual suppliers to the buyer, who have to offer lower prices in order to compete. The buyer decides not only looking for the highest expected profit, but also pondering the risk of loss compared to the expected variation in profit that each provider offers, leadi
摘要:异质微观经济冲击如何在生产网络中传播?本文研究了生产率冲击在企业网络中的扩散，其中(1)存在不完全竞争;(2)公司破产是一种可能性。对于(1)，假设每个企业必须从竞争企业的子集中为其每个投入选择一个供应商，这些竞争企业为其产品设定价格。当买方这样做时，他接受供应商确定的价格，并可以按该价格要求他想要的数量;然而，在一定的概率下，交易可能会失败，例如，产品没有预期的质量或特性，给买方造成损失。这种可能性对于买方的非常规供应商来说更大，他们必须提供更低的价格才能竞争。在这种情况下，买方不仅寻求最高的预期利润，而且寻求最低的损失风险，这导致他将合同概率分配给每个供应商。因此，买方决策的模型不同于经典的预期效用最大化，这使我们能够代表一个连续的市场力量，不同于经典的古诺或伯特兰。关于(2)，一旦合同分配完成，所有商品都生产了，工资支付了，代表家庭定义了他们的消费篮子，并获得了公司的利润。在这里，相对表现较差的公司破产的可能性更大。该模型的结果表明，在生产网络中销售的价格和数量有不同的级联效应。特别是，随着时间的推移，企业破产会产生“上游”级联效应，这种效应只会传递给网络中风险最低的供应商。他的父亲是一名律师，母亲是一名律师。本文研究了(1)存在不完全竞争的企业网络中生产力的扩散冲击;= =地理= =根据美国人口普查，该镇总面积为，其中土地和(2.3%)水。对于(1)，假定每个公司必须为其每一项投入选择一个竞争公司子集中的供应商;这样做时，买方接受供应商设定的价格，并可按该价格要求其所需投入的数量;但是，交易可能会失败，例如，货物没有预期的质量或特性，给买方造成损失;对于非标准供应商来说，这种可能性更大，因为它们必须提供较低的价格才能竞争。The buyer定是not only for The expected profit的,pondering expected variation in The risk of算不上第二十四to The profit处理每provider assign offers,导致他to a probability of to每一bidder征聘。Hence, the buyer ' s decision is modeled expected utility,允许有不同from the classic maximization of us to蒯庆华自始至终不同from the classic Cournot or of market power,伯特兰。关于(2)，一旦订立合同，所有货物都已生产，支付工资，具有代表性的家庭确定其消费篮子，公司的利润也已实现。这些公司with greater罪大恶极:performance time for longer向志愿of条。当日of The平衡这种经济,包括纳什平衡with价格如strategies and supply-demand equilibium,日内瓦。然后，我们模拟了这个模型，显示了在生产网络中交易的价格和数量的不同级联效应。特别是，随着时间的推移，公司破产会产生一种“上游”级联效应，这种效应只传递给网络中风险最低的供应商。
{"title":"Difusión de choques de productividad en redes productivas con competencia imperfecta y quiebra de empresas (Productivity Shocks Diffusion in Firms Networks With Imperfect Competition and Bankruptcy)","authors":"José Ramírez-Álvarez, W. Perez-Oviedo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3347880","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3347880","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Spanish Abstract:</b> ¿Cómo se propagan choques microeconómicos heterogéneos en una red productiva? Este documento estudia la difusión de los choques de productividad en las redes de empresas, donde (1) existe una competencia imperfecta; y (2) la quiebra de las empresas es una posibilidad. Para (1) se supone que cada empresa debe elegir, para cada uno de sus insumos, un proveedor entre un subconjunto de empresas competidoras que fijan los precios de sus productos. Cuando lo hace, el comprador acepta el precio establecido por el proveedor y puede exigir, a ese precio, la cantidad que desea; sin embargo, con cierta probabilidad, la transacción podría fallar, por ejemplo, los productos no tienen la calidad o características esperadas, lo que causa pérdidas para el comprador. Esta probabilidad es mayor para los proveedores no habituales del comprador, que tienen que ofrecer precios más bajos para poder competir. En este contexto, el comprador no solo busca el mayor beneficio esperado, sino también el menor riesgo de pérdida, lo que lo lleva a asignar una probabilidad de contratación a cada proveedor. Por lo tanto, la decisión del comprador se modela de manera diferente de la maximización clásica de la utilidad esperada, lo que nos permite representar un continuo de poder de mercado, diferente del clásico Cournot o Bertrand. Con respecto a (2), una vez que se realizan las asignaciones de los contratos, se producen todos los bienes, se pagan los salarios y el hogar representativo define sus canastas de consumo y se obtienen los beneficios de las empresas. Aquí, aquellas empresas con peor desempeño relativo durante más tiempo tienen mayores posibilidades de quiebra. Los resultados de este modelo muestran diferentes efectos en cascada sobre los precios y las cantidades que se comercializan en la red productiva. En particular, existe un efecto de cascada \"aguas arriba\" en la quiebra de empresas a lo largo del tiempo, que se transmite exclusivamente a los proveedores de menor riesgo en la red.<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> How do macroeconomic shocks propagate in a productive network? This document studies the diffusion of productivity shocks in networks of firms, where (1) there is imperfect competition; and (2) firms’ bankruptcy is a possibility. For (1) it is assumed that each company has to choose, for each one of its inputs, a provider among a subset of competing firms; when it does so, the buyer accepts the supplier-set price and can demand, at that price, the amount of the input it wants; however, with some probability, the transaction could fail -for example, the goods have not the expected quality or characteristics- causing losses to the buyer; this probability is greater for non-habitual suppliers to the buyer, who have to offer lower prices in order to compete. The buyer decides not only looking for the highest expected profit, but also pondering the risk of loss compared to the expected variation in profit that each provider offers, leadi","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114377954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems help organisations manage complexity: they reduce the cost of predictions and hold the promise of more, better and faster decisions that enhance productivity and innovation. However, their deployment increases complexity at all levels of the economy, and with it, the risk of undesirable outcomes. Organisationally, uncertainty about how to adopt fallible AI systems could create AI divides between sectors and organisations. Transactionally, pervasive information asymmetries in AI markets could lead to unsafe, abusive and mediocre applications. Societally, individuals might opt for extreme levels of AI deployment in other sectors in exchange for lower prices and more convenience, creating disruption and inequality. Temporally, scientific, technological and market inertias could lock society into AI trajectories that are found to be inferior to alternative paths. New Sciences (and Policies) of the Artificial are needed to understand and manage the new economic complexities that AI brings, acknowledging that AI technologies are not neutral and can be steered in societally beneficial directions guided by the principles of experimentation and evidence to discover where and how to apply AI, transparency and compliance to remove information asymmetries and increase safety in AI markets, social solidarity to share the benefits and costs of AI deployment, and diversity in the AI trajectories that are explored and pursued and the perspectives that guide this process. This will involve an explicit elucidation of human and social goals and values, a mirror of the Turing test where different societies learn about themselves through their responses to the opportunities and challenges that powerful AI technologies pose.
{"title":"The Complex Economics of Artificial Intelligence","authors":"J. Mateos-Garcia","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3294552","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3294552","url":null,"abstract":"Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems help organisations manage complexity: they reduce the cost of predictions and hold the promise of more, better and faster decisions that enhance productivity and innovation. However, their deployment increases complexity at all levels of the economy, and with it, the risk of undesirable outcomes. Organisationally, uncertainty about how to adopt fallible AI systems could create AI divides between sectors and organisations. Transactionally, pervasive information asymmetries in AI markets could lead to unsafe, abusive and mediocre applications. Societally, individuals might opt for extreme levels of AI deployment in other sectors in exchange for lower prices and more convenience, creating disruption and inequality. Temporally, scientific, technological and market inertias could lock society into AI trajectories that are found to be inferior to alternative paths. New Sciences (and Policies) of the Artificial are needed to understand and manage the new economic complexities that AI brings, acknowledging that AI technologies are not neutral and can be steered in societally beneficial directions guided by the principles of experimentation and evidence to discover where and how to apply AI, transparency and compliance to remove information asymmetries and increase safety in AI markets, social solidarity to share the benefits and costs of AI deployment, and diversity in the AI trajectories that are explored and pursued and the perspectives that guide this process. This will involve an explicit elucidation of human and social goals and values, a mirror of the Turing test where different societies learn about themselves through their responses to the opportunities and challenges that powerful AI technologies pose.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124173877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
While social capital has been found to play an important role in economic transactions when information is incomplete, it remains unclear how it interacts with human capital in transaction performance. This paper explores the complementarity between social affiliations and human capital in transaction performance, and how affiliations influence the match between qualified professionals and consumers. I argue that human capital is important to professional performance, but that social affiliations lead consumers to increasingly match with lower human capital professionals. Thus, while social and human capital function as complements in transaction performance, social capital can substitute for human capital in the selection process. I test my argument using a novel approach that pairs data from a primary real estate multiple listing service in Utah with hand-collected data on geographically assigned church congregation boundaries. This setting allows me to identify listings for which real estate agents and home sellers share a common church congregation, and to explore the impact of this affiliation, as well as human capital variables, on transaction outcomes. I find that agent performance improves when listing for affiliates, on average, and that gains increase with agent human capital. However, consistent with my theory, I find that sellers are more likely to use inexperienced and underqualified affiliated agents. Human capital deficiencies reduce benefits from social affiliations, and lead to inferior transaction outcomes in extreme cases. This suggests a new underexplored dark side to social capital from human capital deficiencies, which is driven by the selection process under incomplete information.
{"title":"Connected, but Qualified? Social Affiliations, Human Capital, and Service Professional Performance","authors":"Timothy Gubler","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2837885","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2837885","url":null,"abstract":"While social capital has been found to play an important role in economic transactions when information is incomplete, it remains unclear how it interacts with human capital in transaction performance. This paper explores the complementarity between social affiliations and human capital in transaction performance, and how affiliations influence the match between qualified professionals and consumers. I argue that human capital is important to professional performance, but that social affiliations lead consumers to increasingly match with lower human capital professionals. Thus, while social and human capital function as complements in transaction performance, social capital can substitute for human capital in the selection process. I test my argument using a novel approach that pairs data from a primary real estate multiple listing service in Utah with hand-collected data on geographically assigned church congregation boundaries. This setting allows me to identify listings for which real estate agents and home sellers share a common church congregation, and to explore the impact of this affiliation, as well as human capital variables, on transaction outcomes. I find that agent performance improves when listing for affiliates, on average, and that gains increase with agent human capital. However, consistent with my theory, I find that sellers are more likely to use inexperienced and underqualified affiliated agents. Human capital deficiencies reduce benefits from social affiliations, and lead to inferior transaction outcomes in extreme cases. This suggests a new underexplored dark side to social capital from human capital deficiencies, which is driven by the selection process under incomplete information.","PeriodicalId":448105,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Productivity (Topic)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123506423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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