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Exploitation of Eurosystem loopholes and their quantitative reconstruction 欧元体系漏洞的利用及其定量重构
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12688
Karl Svozil

This article identifies and analyses six key strategies used to exploit the Eurosystem's financial mechanisms, and attempts a quantitative reconstruction: inflating TARGET balances, leveraging collateral swaps followed by defaults, diluting self-imposed regulatory rules, issuing money through Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA), acquisitions facilitated via the Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA), and the perpetual (re)issuance of sovereign bonds as collateral. These practices stem from systemic vulnerabilities or deliberate opportunism within the Eurosystem. While it does not advocate for illicit activities, the article highlights significant weaknesses in the current structure and concludes that comprehensive reforms are urgently needed.

本文确定并分析了用于利用欧元体系金融机制的六种关键策略,并尝试进行定量重建:膨胀目标余额,利用违约后的抵押品互换,稀释自我施加的监管规则,通过紧急流动性援助(ELA)发行货币,通过净金融资产协议(ANFA)促进收购,以及永久(重新)发行主权债券作为抵押品。这些做法源于系统脆弱性或欧元体系内部蓄意的机会主义。虽然这篇文章不提倡非法活动,但它强调了当前结构中的重大弱点,并得出结论认为,迫切需要进行全面改革。
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引用次数: 0
What Sweden thinks about markets, capitalism and the rich 瑞典对市场、资本主义和富人的看法
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12684
Anders Ydstedt, Rainer Zitelmann

Attitudes towards the rich are far more positive in Sweden than in France, Spain, Germany, and Italy. Attitudes towards the market economy are also more positive in Sweden than in all other European countries, except Poland. Although Sweden is perceived by some as a model of ‘democratic socialism’, it has been 50 years since that this was – almost – the case. Today, Sweden is one of the ten most economically free countries in the world, although income tax is still above average. Corporate taxes are moderate, however, and inheritance, gift, and wealth taxes have been abolished. This article presents the findings of two surveys conducted by Ipsos MORI in Sweden. The first survey focused on perceptions of the rich, the second explored attitudes towards the market economy and capitalism.

与法国、西班牙、德国和意大利相比,瑞典对富人的态度要积极得多。瑞典对市场经济的态度也比除波兰以外的所有其他欧洲国家更为积极。虽然瑞典被一些人认为是“民主社会主义”的典范,但这几乎是50年前的事了。今天,瑞典是世界上经济最自由的十个国家之一,尽管所得税仍然高于平均水平。但是法人税比较温和,继承税、赠与税、财产税也被废除。本文介绍了益普索莫里在瑞典进行的两项调查的结果。第一项调查关注的是对富人的看法,第二项调查探讨的是对市场经济和资本主义的态度。
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引用次数: 0
Human presence is a necessary part of the solution for environmental conservation and land use 人类的存在是解决环境保护和土地利用问题的必要组成部分
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12681
José Ramón Arévalo

Throughout history, overpopulation has consistently been recognised as a significant issue, causing concern even among early civilisations. In certain societies, such as the Neanderthal, Maori, Fijian and Congolese, cannibalism emerged to control population and provide a source of sustenance for the rest of the tribe (Culotta, 1999; Rubinstein, 2004). The Greeks were also among the first to raise awareness about the problem of overpopulation, expressing concerns about food supplies and population growth (Harrow, 1996). Even parts of the Bible can be seen as advocating population control to maintain balance in the world (Ehrlich, 1968), although it can be considered contradictory to the dictum “be fruitful and multiply” (Genesis 1: 28).

These concerns have persisted over time and have been reinforced by the works of influential researchers on public policies. Examples include The Population Bomb (Ehrlich, 1968) and The Limits of Growth (Meadows et al., 1972), which made dire predictions about the future of humanity. These concerns continue to be relevant with regular media reports or reports by institutional agencies such as the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) indicating that we have passed the sustainable equilibrium point. Moreover, more extreme predictions are made pointing towards global warming exceeding 5 °C by 2100, undeniably alarming and posing an existential threat to the lives and well-being of billions. Furthermore, despite lacking recognition by the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), the concept of the ‘Anthropocene epoch’ is now present in scientific literature.

In the light of these ideas, human activity is often seen as incompatible with the preservation of the planet, and directly affects the continuance of the human population itself (Shukla et al., 2019). This is partly due to the limited availability of agricultural land and political proposals to control anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Although it has been nearly 250 years since Malthus (1798) and 150 years since William Stanley Jevons (Missemer, 2012) sounded the alarm, the message remains the same: humans are the problem.

In this challenging situation, it is apparently difficult to reconcile continued human population growth with environmental conservation or the establishment of protected areas. Around the world, there are various types of such protected areas, including rural parks and marine protected areas, that attempt to balance human presence with environmental conservation. Indeed, some argue that humans should be removed from these areas altogether. In contrast, I aim to demonstrate that the presence of humans in many regions is not detrimental but rather beneficial. Even in densely p

纵观历史,人口过剩一直被认为是一个重大问题,甚至在早期文明中也引起了关注。在某些社会中,如尼安德特人、毛利人、斐济人和刚果人,食人现象的出现是为了控制人口,并为部落的其他成员提供食物来源(Culotta, 1999;鲁宾斯坦,2004)。希腊人也是最早提高对人口过剩问题认识的国家之一,他们表达了对粮食供应和人口增长的担忧(Harrow, 1996)。甚至《圣经》的某些部分也可以被视为主张控制人口以保持世界平衡(Ehrlich, 1968),尽管它可以被认为与“生养众多”(创世记1:28)的格言相矛盾。随着时间的推移,这些担忧一直存在,并被有影响力的公共政策研究人员的工作所强化。例如,《人口炸弹》(埃利希,1968)和《增长的极限》(梅多斯等人,1972)都对人类的未来做出了可怕的预测。这些担忧与媒体的定期报道以及国际气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)和政府间生物多样性和生态系统服务科学政策平台(IPBES)等机构的报告有关,表明我们已经超过了可持续平衡点。此外,还有更极端的预测指出,到2100年全球变暖将超过5°C,这无疑令人担忧,并对数十亿人的生命和福祉构成生存威胁。此外,尽管缺乏国际地质科学联合会(IUGS)的认可,“人类世”的概念现在已经出现在科学文献中。根据这些观点,人类活动通常被视为与地球的保护不相容,并直接影响到人口本身的延续(Shukla等人,2019)。这在一定程度上是由于农业用地的有限性和控制人为温室气体排放的政治建议。尽管马尔萨斯(1798)和杰文斯(William Stanley Jevons, Missemer, 2012)发出警告已经分别过去了近250年和150年,但传递的信息始终是一样的:人类才是问题所在。在这种具有挑战性的情况下,显然很难协调持续的人口增长与环境保护或保护区的建立。在世界各地,有各种类型的保护区,包括农村公园和海洋保护区,试图平衡人类存在与环境保护。事实上,一些人认为人类应该完全从这些地区撤走。相反,我的目的是证明人类在许多地区的存在不是有害的,而是有益的。即使在像欧洲这样人口稠密的地区,与自然环境密切接触的人类也应被视为保护工作的组成部分。人口过剩的问题经常通过中国或印度人口密集地区的图像形象地描绘出来。然而,其他人口密集但高度发达的地区,如摩纳哥、澳门、新加坡或马耳他,很少出现在这些描绘中。我的讨论探讨了不同的例子,并简要地评估了它们,以说明这些地区的保护只有在人类参与的情况下才有可能。我讨论了人类是环境问题的问题还是解决方案,重点关注三个不同的方面:土地遗弃,野火和土地征用用于保护。还强调了关于人类对全球影响的一些考虑。在发达国家,由于城市化、全球化和荒漠化,农业用地的废弃是一种显著的土地利用变化(Geeson等,2002)。这一现象引起了人们对多样性和文化价值潜在损失的担忧(Palmer et al., 2010;拉科姆,2008)。研究表明,土地遗弃预计将在未来增加(Rounsevell et al., 2006)。举一些例子,据报道,在欧洲联盟内,每年的撂荒率为农业总面积的3 - 4%。在西班牙,到2030年,撂荒率预计将达到每年总农业用地的0.8% (Keenleyside &amp;塔克,2010)。加那利群岛(西班牙)政府估计,在过去几十年里,该群岛大约60%的农业用地已被废弃自20世纪60年代旅游业开始发展以来,这种情况发生得更加广泛。目前,由于难以确定所有者以及土壤类别和管理的差异,缺乏这些地区恢复的具体计划,尽管许多评论员认为这些废弃土地是恢复的机会(Perino等人,2019)。 在发展中国家,停止粗放型耕作导致边缘土地上的干草地和矮灌木地显著增加(Hernández, 1997)。最初,由于初始植被覆盖稀疏、土壤性质不利和水土保持结构缺乏维护,这些废弃的田地容易受到侵蚀(Gallart等人,1994年;Imeson et al., 1998)。了解这些废弃农田的植被和土壤特性如何变化,以及植被模式如何演变,对于实施以减少侵蚀、恢复或重新造林为重点的管理方案至关重要(Lesschen等人,2008年)。植被格局的变化也可以表明干旱地区沙漠化的开始。然而,在某些情况下,土地放弃可以产生积极影响,例如植被覆盖的变化可以影响水资源的可用性、土壤性质和地球动力学(Lasanta等人,2006;Ruecker et al., 1998)。以欧洲为例,农业的可持续性要求和最低工资规定使其几乎不可能保持生产力。这使得市场的焦点转向了发展中国家,并在欧洲造成了严重的土地荒废。以西班牙为例,如果放弃农业活动,Parque Nacional de Doñana地区的灌溉作物每公顷将获得约10万欧元的收益这对该地区树莓等作物的生产构成了重大威胁,因为这些作物的竞争能力与规模经济有关。因此,由于生产规模和固定成本增加等问题,限制耕地面积对生产力的影响较大,而对保护区的积极影响相对较大。另一个值得注意的例子是西班牙的橄榄油。西班牙是世界上最大的初榨橄榄油生产国和出口国。然而,橄榄油的价格已经飙升到前所未有的水平。这种激增可归因于多种因素,包括零售采购计划、消费者习惯、税率和不利的气候条件。这些因素导致人们在应对粮食供应挑战时越来越脆弱,而这往往是由于政治决定造成的。幸运的是,西方社会对传统农业和畜牧业日益增长的反对可能不会对粮食供应造成太大影响,这在一定程度上要归功于技术的进步,比如人造肉生产领域的技术进步。科学的解决方案将抵消为保护地球的“可持续性”而对农业和畜牧业施加限制的可能决定。因此,人类技术和发展(在大量人口的支持下)可能是解决问题的答案。自二十世纪初以来,火灾一直被视为一种灾难,如果可能的话,要避免,因为它对生命和宝贵的资产有风险(Kornas, 1958;Molinier, 1968)。然而,Leopold et al.(1963)强调了灭火对生态系统的负面影响,使人们认识到火灾是受群落结构和组成影响的内生因素(White, 1979)。目前,在大多数植物群落中,火被广泛认为是一种自然力量,只要可行,就应该允许它的自然发生(Perry, 1994)。事实上,在地中海生态系统中,火灾被认为对植被结构有重大影响(Naveh, 1975;Trabaud, 1994)。长期以来,火一直是争论的主题,也是矛盾的来源。日常生活中有节制地使用火与不加控制地使用火对生命和财产造成的威胁之间存在着明显的矛盾。火灾生态学的一个特殊矛盾和破坏性因素是灭火,特别是在非商业保护森林地区(arsamvalo &amp;Naranjo-Cigala, 2018;Fernandes et al., 2011;Silva et al., 2010)。矛盾之处在于,“自然”火灾通常每年燃烧有限的公顷。然而,根据目前的火灾管理实践和保护措施,只要有可能,所有火灾都会被长期抑制。因此,灾难性森林火灾(在欧洲等许多地区的分类范围超过1000公顷)可能在10-15年后一次发生,原因包括生物量积累(通常是由于这些地区缺乏人类利用)、易火植物物种增加、与冠层相连的林下植被过度生长造成的生物量连续性和/或天气条件。另一方面,发达国家森林火灾造成的人员伤亡已经减少(尽
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引用次数: 0
Pax economica: Left-wing visions of a free trade world By Marc-William Palen. Princeton University Press. 2024. pp. 328. £30.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0691199320. £21.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0691205137 经济大同:自由贸易世界的左翼愿景 Marc-William Palen 著。普林斯顿大学出版社。 2024. pp. 328.30.00 英镑(精装本)。ISBN:978-0691199320。21.00 英镑(电子书)。ISBN: 978-0691205137
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12665
Catherine McBride
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引用次数: 0
The future of American democracy? 美国民主的未来?
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12675
John Phelan
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引用次数: 0
A minor masterpiece? Reconsidering De ponderibus et mensuris by Juan de Mariana 小众杰作?重新审视胡安-德-马里亚纳的《论思辨与思想》(De ponderibus et mensuris
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12664
Giovanni Patriarca

The article investigates a little-known work titled De ponderibus et mensuris [On Weights and Measures] written by Juan de Mariana in 1599. It contains the embryo of his future monetary theories, and has other interesting aspects, not only juridical and historical but also epistemological. Significant points of convergence with the early modern mathematics and abacus tradition make it unique. Apart from its stylistic, pedagogical and technical originality, this work also appears as a watershed for the evolution of economic science, its language and methodology.

文章研究了胡安-德-马里安纳 1599 年撰写的一部鲜为人知的作品《论度量衡》。该书包含了他未来货币理论的雏形,同时还具有其他有趣的方面,不仅包括司法和历史方面,还包括认识论方面。它与早期现代数学和算盘传统的重要交汇点使其独一无二。除了风格、教学和技术上的独创性,这部著作还是经济科学、其语言和方法演变的分水岭。
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引用次数: 0
Growth: A reckoning By Daniel Susskind. Allen Lane. 2024. pp. 368. £25.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0241542309. £10.99 (pbk). ISBN: 978-0141998718. £13.99 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0141998725 增长:反思》(Growth: A reckoning),丹尼尔-苏斯金(Daniel Susskind)著。艾伦-莱恩出版社。 2024. pp.25.00 英镑(精装本)。ISBN:978-0241542309。10.99英镑(平装本)。ISBN: 978-0141998718.ISBN: 978-0141998725
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12673
J R Shackleton
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引用次数: 0
Money capital: New monetary principles for a more prosperous society By Patrick Bolton and Haizhou Huang. Princeton University Press. 2024. pp. 312. £30.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0691232225. £21.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0691232379 货币资本:帕特里克-博尔顿和黄海洲著。普林斯顿大学出版社。 2024. pp.312.30.00 英镑(平装本)。ISBN:978-0691232225。21.00 英镑(电子书)。ISBN: 978-0691232379
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12680
John Greenwood
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引用次数: 0
Economic growth by catch-up nations in an age of neo-protectionism and smart automation 新保护主义和智能自动化时代追赶国家的经济增长
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12670
Nurullah Gur

The global economic landscape has recently undergone significant changes, marked by the rise of neo-protectionist policies and the emergence of a new techno-economic paradigm driven by smart automation technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots. Advanced nations have increasingly used neo-protectionism and smart automation technologies to address their structural problems. These policies will inevitably trigger changes in global supply chains and trade networks. This could undermine the competitive advantages of catch-up nations, and an economic growth strategy centred on foreign direct investments. While these changes in the global economy may have negative impacts on the economic progress of some catch-up countries, they may open new windows of opportunity for others. This article examines the challenges and opportunities for catch-up nations in an era of neo-protectionism and smart automation technologies.

全球经济格局最近发生了重大变化,其标志是新保护主义政策的兴起,以及由人工智能和机器人等智能自动化技术驱动的新技术经济范式的出现。先进国家越来越多地利用新保护主义和智能自动化技术来解决其结构性问题。这些政策将不可避免地引发全球供应链和贸易网络的变化。这可能会削弱追赶国家的竞争优势,以及以外国直接投资为中心的经济增长战略。虽然全球经济的这些变化可能会对一些赶超国家的经济进步产生负面影响,但也可能为其他国家打开新的机遇之窗。本文探讨了追赶国家在新保护主义和智能自动化技术时代面临的挑战和机遇。
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引用次数: 0
The shortest history of economics By Andrew Leigh. Old Street Publishing. 2024. pp. 228. £14.99 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1913083496. £4.99 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1913083502 最简短的经济学史 作者:安德鲁-利。老街出版社。 2024年,第228页。14.99 英镑(精装本)。ISBN:978-1913083496。4.99英镑(电子书)。ISBN: 978-1913083502
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12660
Charles Amos
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引用次数: 0
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