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The new paternalism does not replace older wisdom 新家长制不能取代旧智慧
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12648
Erik W Matson
<p>The Berlin and Lewis epigraphs draw out the moral psychology of paternalism. The paternalist, enlightened as he is, sees past your empirical shell and into the true essence of your being. Setting aside the protestations of the shell that you mistake for yourself, he steers you towards the good. The steering might involve violence, but that is a small price to pay in the grand scheme of things. Nobody enjoys being flogged for heresy; but eliciting conversion is worth the pain. The convicted paternalist persists in his drive to serve the good with the approval of his own conscience.</p><p>The liberal tradition rejects paternalism and exalts the dignity and freedom of the individual person. We have been gifted by our Creator with the inalienable rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, Thomas Jefferson asserted. Each should be free, Adam Smith said, to pursue his interest in his own way. The question of the good is too discursive, in most cases, to warrant violence against those with differing opinions. And in any event, we ought to presumptively respect human freedom and agency per se, regardless of whether someone follows a life path that we approve.</p><p>The liberal rejection of paternalism notwithstanding, a new species of paternalism has in recent decades reared its head in the West. This new paternalism has come forth on the wings of inferences from laboratory experiments and surveys, in cognitive psychology and behavioral economics, about the extent of human rationality. Evidence, it is claimed, has accumulated that we human beings are consistently poor reasoners: we are “predictably irrational” (Ariely, <span>2010</span>). Instead of properly calculating probabilities when assessing risks and making decisions, it has been discovered that we rely on a range of mental short cuts or heuristics. The heuristics work sometimes, but they systematically lead us to make avoidable mistakes in, for example, financial decisions (Tversky & Kahneman, <span>1974</span>). We “think fast” when apparently we should be “thinking slow” (Kahneman, <span>2011</span>). Irrationalities are said to abound in other areas, too. The salience of the present, for example, leads us to overestimate the benefits of present pleasures and underestimate the pain of future costs (Laibson, <span>1997</span>; Read & van Leeuwen, <span>1998</span>). Our ‘present bias’ erodes our self-control and subverts our goals. We save too little, smoke too much, and repeatedly renege on our New Year's resolutions.</p><p>Each of us predictably fails to pursue the good <i>as we ourselves understand it</i>. And we do so across a wide set of domains.</p><p>The new paternalism proposes to use knowledge of our decision-making processes to steer us towards what we ourselves judge to be good. Part of the steering involves the regulation of ‘choice architecture’. This refers to the framing of choice options in a situation to render certain options salient to the chooser, and
柏林和刘易斯的书信引出了家长制的道德心理。开明的家长式人物会透过你的经验外壳,看到你的真正本质。撇开你误以为是自己的外壳的抗议,他引导你向善。这种引导可能会涉及暴力,但从大局来看,这只是很小的代价。没有人喜欢因异端邪说而被鞭打,但促使人皈依是值得的。自由主义传统反对家长制,推崇个人的尊严和自由。托马斯-杰斐逊断言,造物主赋予我们不可剥夺的生命权、自由权和追求幸福的权利。亚当-斯密说,每个人都应该自由地以自己的方式追求自己的利益。在大多数情况下,"善 "的问题太具争议性,没有理由对持不同意见的人使用暴力。而且,无论如何,我们都应该假定性地尊重人的自由和能动性本身,无论某人走的人生道路是否得到我们的认可。尽管自由主义反对家长制,但近几十年来,一种新的家长制在西方抬头。在认知心理学和行为经济学的实验室实验和调查中,人们对人类的理性程度进行了推断。有证据表明,我们人类的推理能力一直很差:我们是 "可预见的非理性"(Ariely,2010 年)。人们发现,在评估风险和做出决策时,我们不是正确地计算概率,而是依赖一系列思维捷径或启发式方法。这些启发式方法有时会奏效,但在财务决策等方面却会系统性地导致我们犯下本可避免的错误(Tversky &amp; Kahneman, 1974)。我们 "思考得很快",而我们显然应该 "思考得很慢"(Kahneman,2011 年)。据说在其他领域也充斥着非理性。例如,当下的显著性导致我们高估当下快乐的好处,低估未来代价的痛苦(Laibson, 1997; Read &amp; van Leeuwen, 1998)。我们的 "当下偏见 "侵蚀了我们的自制力,颠覆了我们的目标。我们存钱太少,抽烟太多,一再违背我们的新年愿望。新家长主义建议利用我们决策过程中的知识,引导我们追求我们自己认为是好的东西。引导的一部分涉及对 "选择架构 "的管理。这指的是在某种情况下对选择方案进行构架,使某些方案对选择者来说更突出,从而更有可能被选择。选择架构的一个典型例子是产品摆放决策--实体企业更迫切希望销售的产品被摆放在显眼的位置,目的是吸引消费者的注意。选择架构在生活中无处不在,因为每一种选择情况,无论是杂货店的产品摆放决策,还是退休储蓄注册流程的设计,都必然有一个架构或安排。在杂货店的结账通道上摆放糖果,在某些情况下几乎肯定会增加顾客购买糖果的可能性。然而,某些选择结构的长期效应却不那么明显。很明显,人们会习惯于自己所处的环境,并发展出相应的策略来应对每次购物时购买糖果的诱惑。人类在 "自我指挥的亲密较量"(谢林,1980 年)中具有非凡的创造力。自 21 世纪初以来,尤其是理查德-塔勒(Richard Thaler)和卡斯-桑斯坦(Cass Sunstein)在其 2008 年的开创性著作《推力》(Nudge:新家长主义者认为,在人们容易自我颠覆的领域,如烟草、糖和酒精消费、金融风险评估以及退休账户缴费决策等领域,他们提出了改变现有私人选择架构的法规。新家长主义者强调了这些监管建议的非强制性甚至 "自由主义"(解读为:保留选择权)特征(卡默尔等人,2003;孙斯坦与amp;泰勒,2003a)。严格说来,许多法规建议并没有限制消费者的选择范围--尽管它们肯定会提高自诩为选择设计师的人所不喜欢的选择的交易成本。 行为科学家可以为有关美好生活的讨论做出有价值的贡献,但她绝不能声称自己对什么符合每个人的利益拥有特权知识。休谟抱怨说,哲学家们 "过于拘泥于自己的原则,而没有考虑到大自然在其所有活动中影响巨大的多样性"(1994 年,第 159 页)。今天,行为科学家和家长式决策者也会受到同样的指责。当我们反思斯密和休谟的论述时,我们得出了一个许多新家长制批评者都得出过的结论。这个结论就是,新家长式监管不是--也不可能是--帮助个人实现其主观目标的简单问题。辨别个人想要什么并非易事,即使对个人本身来说也是如此。新的家长式政策法规只是在努力催促、鼓励或推搡公民按照监管者自己持有的民间善理论(Hausman,2018)生活(Rizzo &amp; Whitman, 2020, p.400)。监管者很少将他们的行为发现和非理性主张应用于自身(Berggren, 2012; Rizzo &amp; Whitman, 2020, pp.329-47)。"我们应该少吃糖、少抽烟、多储蓄等等,这当然是一种非正式的民间共识。但是,我们是否应该引导人们实现这些目标,即使他们可能并不希望被引导?也许在某些情况下,这种家长式的教育是有道理的,但我们应该非常谨慎。在这些问题上,我们最好坚持大卫-休谟和亚当-斯密的著作为我们提供的自由假定、自愿结社假定和反对胁迫的假定。
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引用次数: 0
Denmark: The epitome of ‘innovism’? 丹麦:创新主义 "的缩影?
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-09 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12652
Stefan Kirkegaard Sløk-Madsen, Henrik Mogensen Nielsen
<p>Why do some societies go from poverty to prosperity? This question should occupy all socially conscious social scientists, particularly as we have seen successful societies experience unprecedented growth in living standards all over the world, beginning in the West roughly around 1750 (McCloskey, <span>2010</span>, <span>2021</span>; Mokyr, <span>2008</span>, <span>2016</span>). This development has been called the ‘great enrichment’ and Denmark is a prime example of this (McCloskey, <span>2021</span>). GDP per capita grew from $2,031 in 1820 to $52,133 in 2022 (in 2011 dollars; Bolt & van Zanden, <span>2020</span>).</p><p>Why did the great enrichment occur when and where it did? Several explanations exist. Institutionalists such as Nobel laureate Douglass North (<span>1990</span>) hold good institutions to be the main explanation. Other theories emphasise exploitation of people and resources, both domestic and foreign. Modern trade theorists argue that free trade can create wealth, which can lead to liberty which again leads to further innovation. In Denmark, population homogeneity has been argued to explain it too. Recently, though, a new explanation, that of ‘innovism’, has gained momentum. This concept, coined by the economic historian Deirdre McCloskey, suggests that the root cause of the wealth of nations is creativity fostered by classical liberal ideas about dignity and liberty, rather than simply accumulation of capital.</p><p>McCloskey claims that while institutional arrangements similar to what can be described as capitalistic can be observed through time, the sheer magnitude of improvement observed in the period from approximately 1750 onwards, and particularly, in north-western Europe, calls for a new explanation: innovism. She highlights the implementation of ideals fostering human action with incentives for idea dissemination and entrepreneurship as the key explainer of the great enrichment, more so than materialism or state design. As she concludes: “Innovism, that is, is a matter of creativity, which depends on liberty” (McCloskey, <span>2023</span>, p. 29). In other words, the accumulation of ideas, rather than capital, becomes the key factor. This article investigates whether Denmark's impressive enrichment is indeed best explained by innovism, especially when coupled with Paul Romer-style thinking about technological ideas as infinite resources (Jones, <span>2019</span>), or by competing theories such as exploitation or institutional design.</p><p>Our article is based mainly on the research behind the book <i>Danish Capitalism in the 20th Century: A Business History of an Innovistic Mixed Economy</i> (Sløk-Madsen, <span>2022</span>). We think that this piece is a necessary add-on to help better understand Denmark's narrative of economic development, but it is necessary for another reason too. If, as we argue, Denmark's remarkable success is indeed explained by policy choices supporting innovism, with very few pre-exist
为什么有些社会会从贫穷走向繁荣?所有具有社会意识的社会科学家都应该思考这个问题,尤其是我们已经看到世界各地的成功社会经历了前所未有的生活水平增长,大约从 1750 年左右的西方国家开始(McCloskey, 2010, 2021; Mokyr, 2008, 2016)。这种发展被称为 "大富裕",丹麦就是一个典型的例子(麦克洛斯基,2021 年)。人均 GDP 从 1820 年的 2,031 美元增长到 2022 年的 52,133 美元(按 2011 年美元计算;Bolt &amp; van Zanden, 2020)。有几种解释。诺贝尔奖得主道格拉斯-诺斯(Douglass North,1990 年)等制度学家认为,良好的制度是主要的解释。其他理论则强调对国内外人口和资源的开发。现代贸易理论家认为,自由贸易可以创造财富,而财富可以带来自由,自由又会带来进一步的创新。在丹麦,人口同质性也被认为可以解释这一现象。最近,一种新的解释--"创新主义"--开始流行起来。这一概念由经济史学家迪尔德丽-麦克洛斯基(Deirdre McCloskey)提出,她认为国家富裕的根本原因是古典自由主义关于尊严和自由的思想所促进的创造力,而不仅仅是资本积累。麦克洛斯基称,虽然可以通过时间观察到类似于资本主义的制度安排,但在大约 1750 年以后的时期,特别是在欧洲西北部,观察到的进步幅度之大,需要一种新的解释:创新主义。她强调,与物质主义或国家设计相比,实施促进人类行动的理想,激励思想传播和创业精神,是极大丰富的主要原因。她总结道她总结道:"创新,即创造力问题,而创造力取决于自由"(麦克洛斯基,2023 年,第 29 页)。换言之,思想的积累而非资本的积累成为关键因素。本文将探讨丹麦令人印象深刻的富裕是否真的可以用创新主义(尤其是与保罗-罗默式的将技术思想视为无限资源的思想相结合时),或者用剥削或制度设计等竞争性理论来解释:我们的文章主要基于《20 世纪的丹麦资本主义:创新型混合经济的商业史》(Sløk-Madsen,2022 年)一书背后的研究。我们认为,为了帮助更好地理解丹麦的经济发展叙事,这篇文章是必要的补充,但它之所以必要,还有另一个原因。如果正如我们所言,丹麦的非凡成功确实是由支持创新的政策选择造成的,而事先存在的资产或优势极少,那么其他国家也有很多值得学习的地方。押错(法国)马、国家破产以及海军被英国夺取,使曾经骄傲的丹麦王国面临着不复存在的真正危险。尽管失去了挪威,丹麦王国的版图仍然十分狭小,从印度一直延伸到西印度群岛,并包含数十种语言和方言。该王国唯一真正的资产是300多年来信奉路德教所带来的相对较高的识字率、强大的贸易传统和相对稳定的国家组织。然而,自 17 世纪 80 年代起,一场日益激烈的启蒙运动辩论开始占据上风(Bang 等人,1984 年)。这场争论最初集中在言论自由上,但在随后的一个世纪中逐渐发展到自由市场原则和民族主义,并从德国浪漫主义思想中汲取灵感,尤其是在沙龙中,例如在拉赫贝克夫妇1的住所巴克胡赛特(Bakkehuset)(索伦森,2020 年)举办的沙龙,他们将当时的科学、文学和政治知识分子聚集在一起。拿破仑战争后的几十年间,丹麦政府开始进行新的改革,以合并和集中丹麦的土地所有权,尤其是在德国北部,那里的石勒苏益格公国和荷尔斯泰因公国自中世纪晚期以来一直与丹麦君主而非丹麦王国保持着联系(Busck 等人,2011 年)、2011).丹麦最早的一些真正民主的机构,即地方庄园议会,体现了丹麦从封建附庸国向中央集权集体国家重组的努力,尽管这些机构仍处于名义上的专制主义国家框架内,但它们在整个 19 世纪 30 年代和 40 年代成功地提高了自己的政治影响力,通常是通过要求修改丹麦的重商主义贸易政策和进行自由化贸易改革。
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引用次数: 0
Rewarding performance through sustainability-linked bonds 通过与可持续发展挂钩的债券奖励绩效
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12636
Anne-Marie Anderson, Richard Kish

Green bonds and the broad category of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) debt are market initiatives designed to tie environmental goals to the funding mechanism of the firm. Although there is an evolving certification process for green and social bonds, it does not currently include monetary consequences for a deviation from the proposed green uses of the funding. This article provides an overview of the green/social bond market to highlight these shortcomings. After a review of the green bond literature, we note the shortcomings of the existing debt market and illustrate the benefits of sustainability-linked bonds (SLB), which reward incremental improvements in relevant performance indicators.

绿色债券和广义的环境、社会和治理(ESG)债务是市场倡议,旨在将环境目标与公司的融资机制联系起来。虽然绿色债券和社会债券的认证程序在不断发展,但目前并不包括偏离资金绿色用途的货币后果。本文概述了绿色/社会债券市场,以强调这些缺陷。在对绿色债券文献进行回顾后,我们指出了现有债务市场的不足之处,并说明了与可持续性挂钩的债券(SLB)的好处,即对相关绩效指标的逐步改善给予奖励。
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引用次数: 0
Popular perceptions of the rich in 13 countries 13 个国家民众对富人的看法
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12633
Rainer Zitelmann
<p>Why are popular perceptions of the rich important for a society? The simple answer: because the first sparks of economic growth are often kindled when a society starts to view the rich in a positive light. This has been true throughout the history of the United States, and it has also been true in China since the early 1980s when Deng Xiaoping declared: “Let some people get rich first!” (Naughton, <span>1993</span>, p. 501). It is also true today in Vietnam, where the rich are viewed more positively than in almost any other country – and where GDP per capita has increased sixfold since a far-reaching programme of economic reforms was launched in 1986.</p><p>In China, the number of people living in extreme poverty has fallen from 88 per cent in 1981 to less than 1 per cent today, while at the same time the number of billionaires has increased more than in any other country; today, more billionaires live in China than anywhere except the USA (Hyatt, <span>2023</span>).</p><p>In Vietnam, 80 per cent of the population were living in poverty in 1993; today that figure is less than 5 per cent (World Bank, <span>2022</span>, p. 2, figure 0.1 m; Zitelmann, <span>2024a</span>). Conversely, many societies started on the road to suffering and decay when they launched policies directed against the rich, as in China during the Cultural Revolution, or in Venezuela after the election of the socialist President Hugo Chávez. As the recent example of Venezuela has shown, it is not only the rich who suffer from anti-rich policies, but also the poor.</p><p>The Russian Revolution began with the struggle against the bourgeoisie, against the rich. In December 1917, Lenin demanded that extreme force be used against “this offal of humanity, these hopelessly decayed and atrophied limbs, this contagion, this plague, this ulcer”, specifically “the rich and their hangers-on”, and the bourgeois intellectuals (Lenin, <span>1947</span>, pp. 259–60). His aim was “to <i>purge</i> the land of Russia of all vermin”, the rich and other rogues. How this should be done, he explained in drastic words: “In one place half a score of rich, a dozen rogues, half a dozen workers who shirk their work … will be put in prison. In another place they will be put to cleaning latrines … In a fourth place, one out of every ten idlers will be shot on the spot” (Lenin, <span>1947</span>, p. 262).</p><p>Martin Ivanovich Latsis, one of the first leaders of the Soviet political police, instructed his subordinates on 1 November 1918:</p><p>Resentment against the rich has often even led to negative economic outcomes in democratic states, as the examples of Sweden and Great Britain in the 1970s show, where over-zealous high-tax policies and nationalisations led to massive declines in wealth (see Zitelmann, <span>2024b</span>, pp. 127–48, 171–88). So there are very good reasons for learning more about how a society perceives the rich.</p><p>Hatred of the rich is an extreme manifestation and mobilisation o
希望偏见研究也能越来越多地关注迄今为止在这方面很少受到关注的少数群体:富人。
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引用次数: 0
Rejoinder 回复
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12638
Fredrik N G Andersson, Lars Jonung
<p>The response by David Goldsmith to our recently published <i>Economic Affairs</i> article (Andersson & Jonung, <span>2024</span>) is puzzling. Most prominently, Goldsmith stresses that the correlation between the stringency of lockdowns and excess death rates is close to zero. This is exactly the main point in our article.</p><p>If lockdowns were a clear success, there should be a significant correlation between the extent of lockdowns and excess deaths. But there is none. The least one should expect from lockdown supporters is that they would be able to show how the non-existing significant correlation we find can be turned into the significant negative relationship they claim to exist. Goldsmith has arguments but no analysis on this point.</p><p>With this insight, we hope that he shares our message that Sweden was a success story in the sense that the use of more far-reaching lockdowns in other countries than in Sweden had no apparent benefits.</p><p>Goldsmith raises the question: what constitute a successful pandemic policy? Many argue that the only way to success is to arrest the spread of the virus by the use of lockdowns, ignoring all other social, political and economic consequences. We do not share this limited view. When evaluating public policies we must consider their full impact on society. Nevertheless, even if one adopts a limited approach, draconian lockdowns were obviously not a success as they had no significant effect on excess mortality.</p><p>In our analysis we adopt a broader approach by looking at the effects of lockdowns on the macroeconomy as well. Here we find a significant negative impact of lockdowns. For example, real GDP in the United Kingdom fell by 20 per cent in the second quarter of 2020, compared with 9 per cent in Sweden. In the United Kingdom, public finances and budget deficits are now a matter of general concern as a result of the fiscal expansion during the lockdown period. In Sweden, the public debt accumulated during the pandemic has been paid off. Instead, there is a fear that the public debt may have become too low, the contrary case to the UK.</p><p>Finally, perhaps the biggest weakness in Goldsmith's argument is his failure to recognise the role of voluntary behaviour. There are two alternative ways for a government to respond to a pandemic. It can either advise the public on how to adjust its behaviour and trust citizens to act responsibly, or mistrust citizens by enforcing mandatory restrictions backed up by law-enforcement agencies. The latter approach assumes people are ignorant and incapable of making independent decisions.</p><p>If the next pandemic has a case fatality rate of 10–20 per cent, as Goldsmith speculates, people will go out of their way to avoid contact with others. This is a key point from the Swedish experience, where the authorities relied to a large extent on voluntary adjustment. It is a crucial factor in explaining why Sweden could display low excess mortality and low cos
大卫-戈德史密斯(David Goldsmith)对我们最近发表的《经济事务》一文(Andersson & Jonung, 2024)的回应令人费解。最突出的是,戈德史密斯强调,封锁的严格程度与超额死亡率之间的相关性接近于零。这正是我们文章的主要观点。如果禁闭明显成功,那么禁闭程度与超额死亡率之间应该存在显著的相关性。但事实并非如此。人们对封锁支持者最起码的期望是,他们能够证明我们发现的不存在的显著相关性如何能够转变成他们声称存在的显著负相关关系。戈德史密斯在这一点上有论据但没有分析。我们希望他能分享我们的信息,即瑞典是一个成功的故事,因为在其他国家使用比瑞典影响更深远的封锁措施并没有明显的好处。戈德史密斯提出了一个问题:什么是成功的大流行病政策?戈德史密斯提出了一个问题:什么才是成功的大流行病政策?许多人认为,成功的唯一途径就是通过封锁来阻止病毒的传播,而忽略所有其他社会、政治和经济后果。我们不同意这种狭隘的观点。在评估公共政策时,我们必须考虑其对社会的全面影响。然而,即使我们采取了有限的方法,严厉的封锁措施显然也不是成功的,因为它们对超额死亡率没有显著影响。在我们的分析中,我们采取了更广泛的方法,同时考察封锁措施对宏观经济的影响。在这里,我们发现了封锁的重大负面影响。例如,2020 年第二季度,英国的实际 GDP 下降了 20%,而瑞典则下降了 9%。在英国,由于封锁期间的财政扩张,公共财政和预算赤字现已成为一个普遍关注的问题。在瑞典,大流行病期间积累的公共债务已经还清。最后,戈德史密斯论证中最大的弱点可能是他没有认识到自愿行为的作用。政府有两种应对大流行病的方法。政府可以建议公众如何调整自己的行为,并相信公民会负责任地行事;或者在执法机构的支持下实施强制性限制措施,从而对公民造成不信任。后一种方法假定人们是无知的,无法做出独立决定。如果下一次流行病的病死率像戈德史密斯推测的那样达到 10%-20%,人们就会不遗余力地避免与他人接触。这是瑞典经验中的一个关键点,瑞典当局在很大程度上依靠自愿调整。这是解释为什么瑞典的大流行病政策能显示出较低的超额死亡率和较低的社会成本的关键因素。由于每个公民的生活状况不同,自愿方式可能会更有效地应对未来的大流行病。每个人都可以设计自己的措施,在尽可能保持正常生活的同时减少社会接触。而另一种自上而下的社会控制方法则效率较低,因为这种方法是建立在政府无所不知的基础上的。
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引用次数: 0
Selling renewable energy: A review of three new publications 销售可再生能源:对三份新出版物的评论
IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12631
Lawrence Haar
<p>Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger (Eds.), <i>Renewable Energy Auctions: Lessons from the Global South</i>. Oxford University Press. 2023. 512 pp. £100.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0192871701. £66.66 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0191967931.</p><p>Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz (Eds.), <i>Handbook on the Economics of Renewable Energy</i>. Edward Elgar. 2023. 496 pp. £215.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1800379015. From £48.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1800379022.</p><p>Georges Hathry, <i>Renewable Energies: The Stakes for Your Company. What does Your Company Gain from Using Renewable Energy?</i> Our Knowledge Publishing. 2023. 76 pp. $48.00 (pbk). ISBN: 978-6206326922.</p><p>In the latest COP 28 UN Climate Change Conference held in December 2023 in United Arab Emirates, signatory countries promised a transition from carbon energy sources “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” (UNFCC, <span>2023</span>) to mitigate, accordingly, the worst effects of climate change, and reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the history of COP summits, though vague with respect to <i>how</i> and <i>when</i> the transition will happen, the latest UN conference set a precedent in affirming the necessity of reducing the use of fossil fuels. (Though, notably, China and India, representing more than one-third of the world's population, did not sign the pledge to triple their output of renewable energy and committed to coal power instead.)</p><p>Researchers from policy institutes, leading academic institutions and elsewhere have devoted significant effort to explaining the economic benefits transitioning to ‘renewable’ energy and pursuing the commitments made under the auspices of the UN climate change agreements. Monographs and compendiums as well offer advice on how to navigate and benefit from the transition. Some works address legal and regulatory issues such as <i>Promoting Renewable Energy: The Mutual Supportiveness of Climate and Trade Law</i> (Monti, <span>2023</span>) or focus upon technical and engineering matters as in <i>Fundamentals and Applications of Renewable Energy</i> (Kanoglu et al., <span>2023</span>).</p><p>Looking at each of these themes in turn, we begin with the popular concept of energy security.</p><p>Energy security is a recurring theme in the design of energy policy even though there is no consensus on how it should be measured or achieved, or on the relevant time frame over which it should be assessed. Ever since petroleum became critical to modern economic life, people have been concerned about whether its supply was ‘secure’ and would be fairly priced. Of late, such perennial concerns have been used to support renewable energy, but what ‘security’ precisely involves is uncertain.</p><p>There are many interesting metrics and indices purporting to measure energy security. It may involve the ratio of domestic supply to domestic consumption, looking at resource estimates or metrics related to economic structure such as producer concentration, energy intensiveness and market con
此外,它还要求化石燃料发电厂以最低稳定发电量空转,以便在风力发电输出失效和阳光不充足时进行调度。在英国,根据能源监管机构 Ofgem 的数据,零售能源价格中的非批发成本部分现已超过 71%。阿根廷每年的日照时数为 2,534 小时,其中 71% 的时间不是在夜间就是在云层中。印度的日照时数为 2,361 小时,其中 73% 的时间不是在夜间就是在云层覆盖之下。即使在赞比亚,也有 68% 的时间云雾和夜幕降临会使太阳能光伏基础设施失去作用。尽管可以看到,在非洲和印度的部分地区,可再生能源将成为没有电网备用的主要电力来源,从而使其成本更低,但仍然很难想象有人会对间歇性和不可预测的电力供应感到满意。在阿根廷、南非和巴西,生活在城市化地区的消费者期待可靠的电力供应,而可再生能源则需要化石燃料备用或大量投资于电网级储能,这两者都会带来巨大的社会成本。根据科隆大学国际能源机构(IEA)最近公布的数据,德国在支持可再生能源方面面临 600 亿欧元的资金缺口,当风速过低或云层阻挡风车和太阳能电池板向电网供电时,德国需要将其中约 100 亿欧元用于新建燃气和氢气备用发电厂。此外,就德国而言,到 2030 年实现净零排放的社会成本估计将达到 1.9 万亿欧元,即每年 2,400 亿欧元10。间接成本的 "社会化 "听起来可能并不令人讨厌,但当我们将事实量化时,使用可再生能源发电来降低碳排放的理由就会被削弱,尤其是在全球南部的中低收入国家。从民主治理的角度来看,我们不禁要问,如果向全球南方国家的公民征询他们对过渡到可再生能源的利弊得失的看法,他们会做出怎样的回应。正如我们在世界上最发达的经济体中所看到的那样,自工业革命以来,经济增长一直靠廉价的化石燃料来支撑。综合来看,依靠太阳能光伏发电和风力涡轮机发电不会降低能源成本,发展中国家依靠这些发电也不会使其更加富裕。如果利用可再生技术而不是天然气、石油或煤炭发电是经济的,那么就不需要政策倡导;企业追求利润也不需要激励措施。这反映了发电行业从国有公用事业向私有化的广泛转型,以及利用市场力量提供可靠、可负担得起的电力,在这三部被评述的著作中,私人投资者和资本在实现向风能和太阳能可再生能源发电转型方面发挥了重要作用。Hathry 以私营实体为目标,探讨了如何在公司层面开展可再生能源项目。他讨论了如何衡量能源消耗以及可再生能源可能带来的节约。不难看出,他还强调了使用和生产可再生能源的公共关系效益。Hathry 对法国大型企业集团 Bollore 集团的案例研究证明了这方面的好处。对客户来说,企业自觉绿色环保可能是件好事,但如果提高能源价格会增加成本,对利益相关者又怎么会真正有利呢?最终的影响必须波及消费者、股东和员工。此外,我们还要承担可再生能源发电的间接成本,这一点已经解释过了。在大多数情况下,企业在使用或采用可再生能源时都会获得税收减免、补贴和其他奖励。这些激励措施是有成本的:对一个实体的补贴意味着对另一个实体征收更高的税。这种激励措施可能会产生错误的分配效应,以次优方式引导资本。在谈到即将召开的达沃斯会议时,上市石化制造商亨斯迈公司(Huntsman Corporation)总裁兼首席执行官说:"对绿色能源的追求正导致欧洲迅速去工业化"(Huntsman,2024 年)。德国智库 Agora Energiewende (2024) 报告称,欧洲二氧化碳排放量的下降主要是由于去工业化。 在智利,我们了解到,积极的商业环境、低国家风险、低欠款率和支持性监管制度的结合有助于保护供应商的收入流。南非拥有先进的资本市场和成熟的经济体系,成功拍卖可再生电力的建设和发电权本应是轻而易举的事,但吸引私营部门投资却面临着重重障碍。虽然南非在可再生能源拍卖方面一直处于地区领先地位,在 2010 年底制定了独立电力生产商计划,以解决长期的电力短缺问题,并表明对联合国气候变化大会(COP 15)的承诺,但其选址过程繁琐,对未中标的投标人来说成本高昂。在巴西和墨西哥等国,需要对电力部门进行重大结构改革,包括垂直拆分输电和配电供应,以便为私人投资者提供合适且有吸引力的条件。墨西哥设立了一个能源监管机构和一个市场运营商,并将国有公用事业划分为独立实体,负责监督价值链的各个环节。在阿根廷,长期的经济不稳定和机构脆弱性造成了障碍,因此世界银行有必要设立信托基金,以减轻投资者的金融风险。该基金在促进拍卖方面取得了成功,直到 2018 年的崩盘证明它不足以保护投资者免受主权风险的影响。在纳米比亚,从 2015 年私营部门完全不参与电力供应开始,利用标准银行开发的创新金融结构,以当地货币贷款,保护投资者免受外汇汇率风险,取得了切实进展。在邻国赞比亚,采用了创新的拍卖设计方法来降低主要风险,并在潜在投资者之间建立信任。总之,我们从收集的资料中了解到,可再生能源拍卖已成为公用事业规模可再生能源项目签约的主要方式,这在很大程度上是由于通过这种方式获得了 "具有成本效益 "的电价。依靠私人资本和市场机制,全球南部国家在可再生能源方面取得了显著进展,但这是否说明了问题的全部?虽然这些国家利用市场机制鼓励可再生能源投资,并依靠私营部门建设可再生能源发电,通常将可再生能源的低成本效益作为制定可再生能源价格的基准,但这并不一定说明经济学是正确的。埃伯哈德和克鲁格文集》的作者回避了一个突出的问题,即推广可再生能源,即使是利用市场机制,是否有利于繁荣、增长和发展。在从这本出版物中寻求指导时,政策制定者应该认真思考。虽然通过拍卖鼓励可再生能源投资有助于实现《公约》第 15 次缔约方会议的目标,但《埃伯哈德与克鲁格文集》的作者们却忽略了这样做是否有助于各自经济体的长期经济增长和发展这一问题。它是在创造财富,还是在鼓励寻租?除了综合考虑天然气发电成本更低之外,这些国家的地理和地质条件也让人不禁要问,如果不是为了实现联合国可持续发展目标或获得非政府组织的青睐,他们为什么要追求可再生能源?如前所述,阿根廷拥有巨大的可开采天然气和石油储量。11 墨西哥的石油产量超过 170 万立方米/日,天然气储量为 1654.9 万立方英尺,仅次于巴西。纳米比亚的北部邻国安哥拉拥有 971.1 万立方英尺的天然气储量和 140 万立方米的石油产量。虽然赞比亚的石油和天然气工业规模很小,但其邻国莫桑比克的天然气储量估计为 1 亿立方英尺,在世界上排名第 14 位。总之,适合天然气发电的丰富碳氢化合物供应,无论是在国内还是从邻国获得,都提出了不可靠的分布式发电是否合理的问题。其 LCOE 可能相当,但仍需要在输配电基础设施和可调度后备设施方面进行大量投资。对于长期经济增长而言,如果我们不考虑使用化石燃料发电所带来的影响,那么在全球南部国家或任何地方使用可再生能源是否合理? 是的,根据 Deason(2018 年)对 45 项关于可再生能源影响的同行评审研究进行的荟萃分析,34 项研究发现,完全依赖可再生能源将使电价上涨 41% 到 104%。亚历克斯-爱泼斯坦(Alex Epstein)(2021 年)认为,从更广泛的角度看,用可再生能源取代化石燃料将使大部分发展中国家陷入永久贫困。除了实现缔约方大会的目标外,在全球南部推行可再生能源的经济理由仍然值得商
{"title":"Selling renewable energy: A review of three new publications","authors":"Lawrence Haar","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecaf.12631","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger (Eds.), &lt;i&gt;Renewable Energy Auctions: Lessons from the Global South&lt;/i&gt;. Oxford University Press. 2023. 512 pp. £100.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0192871701. £66.66 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0191967931.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz (Eds.), &lt;i&gt;Handbook on the Economics of Renewable Energy&lt;/i&gt;. Edward Elgar. 2023. 496 pp. £215.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1800379015. From £48.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1800379022.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Georges Hathry, &lt;i&gt;Renewable Energies: The Stakes for Your Company. What does Your Company Gain from Using Renewable Energy?&lt;/i&gt; Our Knowledge Publishing. 2023. 76 pp. $48.00 (pbk). ISBN: 978-6206326922.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the latest COP 28 UN Climate Change Conference held in December 2023 in United Arab Emirates, signatory countries promised a transition from carbon energy sources “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” (UNFCC, &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;) to mitigate, accordingly, the worst effects of climate change, and reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the history of COP summits, though vague with respect to &lt;i&gt;how&lt;/i&gt; and &lt;i&gt;when&lt;/i&gt; the transition will happen, the latest UN conference set a precedent in affirming the necessity of reducing the use of fossil fuels. (Though, notably, China and India, representing more than one-third of the world's population, did not sign the pledge to triple their output of renewable energy and committed to coal power instead.)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Researchers from policy institutes, leading academic institutions and elsewhere have devoted significant effort to explaining the economic benefits transitioning to ‘renewable’ energy and pursuing the commitments made under the auspices of the UN climate change agreements. Monographs and compendiums as well offer advice on how to navigate and benefit from the transition. Some works address legal and regulatory issues such as &lt;i&gt;Promoting Renewable Energy: The Mutual Supportiveness of Climate and Trade Law&lt;/i&gt; (Monti, &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;) or focus upon technical and engineering matters as in &lt;i&gt;Fundamentals and Applications of Renewable Energy&lt;/i&gt; (Kanoglu et al., &lt;span&gt;2023&lt;/span&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Looking at each of these themes in turn, we begin with the popular concept of energy security.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Energy security is a recurring theme in the design of energy policy even though there is no consensus on how it should be measured or achieved, or on the relevant time frame over which it should be assessed. Ever since petroleum became critical to modern economic life, people have been concerned about whether its supply was ‘secure’ and would be fairly priced. Of late, such perennial concerns have been used to support renewable energy, but what ‘security’ precisely involves is uncertain.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;There are many interesting metrics and indices purporting to measure energy security. It may involve the ratio of domestic supply to domestic consumption, looking at resource estimates or metrics related to economic structure such as producer concentration, energy intensiveness and market con","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 2","pages":"403-413"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecaf.12631","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141489015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The individualists: Radicals, reactionaries and the struggle for the soul of libertarianism By Matt Zwolinski and John Tomasi. Princeton University Press. 2023. 416 pp. £30 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0691155548. £21.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0691241043 个人主义者:激进派、反动派与自由主义灵魂之争 作者:马特-兹沃林斯基、约翰-托马西。普林斯顿大学出版社。 2023.416 pp.30 英镑(平装本)。ISBN:978-0691155548。21.00 英镑(电子书)。ISBN: 978-0691241043
IF 1.4 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12617
Charles Amos
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引用次数: 0
Reassessing the Bengal Famine of 1943 重新评估 1943 年孟加拉大饥荒
IF 1.4 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12619
Hira Jungkow, Herbert Anderson

The Bengal famine of 1943 has received significant attention from academia, politicians and the public. This is the result both of its considerable death toll and the range of factors held responsible, including politicians. However, despite the quantity of discussion and controversy that it has generated, three areas have thus far been insufficiently addressed: the results of the Bengal Food Drive, the geographic link between famine and the ‘denial policy’, and the economic Balkanisation of India. This article addresses these areas to draw a more rounded conclusion on the debate around the famine.

1943 年的孟加拉饥荒受到了学术界、政治家和公众的高度关注。这既是由于死亡人数众多,也是由于包括政治家在内的各种因素造成的。然而,尽管这场饥荒引发了大量的讨论和争议,但有三个方面迄今为止尚未得到充分讨论:孟加拉粮食运动的结果、饥荒与 "拒绝政策 "之间的地理联系以及印度的经济巴尔干化。本文对这些方面进行了探讨,以便为围绕饥荒的辩论得出更全面的结论。
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引用次数: 0
Gary Becker's extraordinary legacy 加里-贝克尔的非凡遗产
IF 1.4 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12627
Pedro Schwartz
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引用次数: 0
The political economy of fiscal dominance: Evidence from the Chilean government of Salvador Allende 财政主导权的政治经济学:萨尔瓦多-阿连德智利政府的证据
IF 1.4 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecaf.12618
Víctor I Espinosa, David O Cueva

This article examines the political economy of fiscal dominance during the Chilean government (1970–73) of Salvador Allende. Fiscal dominance appears when the monetary authority complies with the fiscal authority's demand to buy treasury bonds and monetise the deficit. It is argued that persistent fiscal dominance is inflationary, especially without robust fiscal and monetary rules. The Allende government financed the deficit with present taxes, debt (future taxes) and monetary issuance (inflation tax), causing the crowding-out effect and, together with other policies such as expropriation and price controls, collapsed the demand for money, triggering hyperinflation. The lessons of Chile clarify the fiscal trigger of the inflation, stagnation, and widespread poverty that has affected Latin American countries in recent decades.

本文研究了萨尔瓦多-阿连德领导的智利政府(1970-73 年)时期财政主导地位的政治经济学。当货币当局遵从财政当局的要求购买国债并将赤字货币化时,财政主导地位就会出现。有观点认为,持续的财政主导会导致通货膨胀,尤其是在没有健全的财政和货币规则的情况下。阿连德政府用现在的税收、债务(未来的税收)和货币发行(通货膨胀税)为赤字融资,造成了挤出效应,再加上征用和价格管制等其他政策,使货币需求崩溃,引发了恶性通货膨胀。智利的教训阐明了近几十年来影响拉美国家的通货膨胀、经济停滞和普遍贫困的财政导火索。
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