ECONOMIC AFFAIRS最新文献

The knowledge problem and volatility in electricity markets have long been central to policy debates in energy markets. This study examines the successes and limitations of machine learning in addressing these issues, contributing to the existing literature. Machine learning has shown promise in tackling specific technical aspects of power markets, but its shortcomings in forecasting customer behaviour and managing decentralised, renewable-driven systems highlight the need for further refinement. While machine learning offers potential in reducing certain aspects of market volatility, it is not a comprehensive solution to the broader challenges faced by the electricity market.

Despite the significant changes that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has made to the US healthcare system since 2010, little statistical analysis of its impact on the deadliest chronic diseases has been made. County-level data from the United States is used in conjunction with difference-in-difference models to isolate the effect of the Affordable Care Act on preventable deaths due to heart disease. Our national causal inference analysis found a significant decrease of preventable heart disease mortality due to the Medicaid expansions.

Anthony Seldon (with Jonathan Meakin), Truss at 10: How Not to Be Prime Minister. Atlantic Books. 2024. 366 + xvi pp. £22.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1805462132. £12.99 (pbk). ISBN: 978-1805462163. £11.99 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1805462156

Liz Truss, Ten Years to Save the West: Lessons from the Only Conservative in the Room. Biteback Publishing. 320 pp. £20.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1785908576. £10.99 (pbk). ISBN: 978-1785909238. £14.99 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1785908637

On 6 September 2022, Liz Truss replaced Boris Johnson to become Queen Elizabeth II's 15th and last prime minister of the United Kingdom. Two days later, the queen was dead. Following a short period of official mourning, Truss and her Chancellor of the Exchequer¹ Kwasi Kwarteng launched a ‘mini-budget’ which was intended to cut taxes dramatically without any immediate matching spending cuts. Coming on top of an earlier (and potentially extremely expensive) commitment to subsidising energy prices, this sparked a serious financial crisis. This led to Truss dismissing Kwarteng and installing a new chancellor, who then scrapped almost the entire proposed fiscal package. This U-turn, together with bond-buying by the Bank of England to stave off a potential collapse of pension funds, stabilised the markets. However, she had been compromised by this reversal of her signature policy, became subject to public ridicule, and quickly lost the support of the parliamentary Conservative Party. She had little option but to resign as Conservative leader and prime minister on 20 October after just 44 days in 10 Downing Street. Five days later she was replaced as prime minister by Rishi Sunak. This was the shortest period of office of any British prime minister.

On 11 October, The Economist (2024) had published a leader column which compared Truss's expected shelf-life to that of an iceberg lettuce. This image was seized upon by the tabloid Daily Star, which began to livestream a wilting supermarket lettuce, soon attracting a huge number of viewers and becoming a meme which persisted well after her resignation. In August 2024, for example, Truss walked out of a stage appearance to promote Ten Years to Save the West after some jokers unfurled a remote control banner with a picture of a lettuce and the legend ‘I crashed the economy’ (BBC News, 2024). She was reportedly unamused.

The Truss government was certainly something of a fiasco. But why? These two books offer contrasting reasons. While Sir Anthony Seldon largely blames the personal inadequacies of Britain's 56th prime minister, Truss herself sees her administration as fatally undermined by ‘the Blob’, an amorphous grouping including “the quangocracy, an unaccountable judiciary and undemocratic international institutions” (p. 286). She argues that her experience suggests tha

The economy-wide economic surplus, defined as output beyond what is needed to sustain the labouring workforce, is one of the oldest ideas in Western political economy. Marx permanently changed economic thinking by characterising it as exploitation. As confidence in government management of economic affairs grew in the twentieth century, how to spend the surplus better than free individuals would spend it themselves became a growing theme among economists and among the broader public. While the role of the surplus in economic theory today is modest, its vibrancy in the public conversation remains.

This article identifies and analyses six key strategies used to exploit the Eurosystem's financial mechanisms, and attempts a quantitative reconstruction: inflating TARGET balances, leveraging collateral swaps followed by defaults, diluting self-imposed regulatory rules, issuing money through Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA), acquisitions facilitated via the Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA), and the perpetual (re)issuance of sovereign bonds as collateral. These practices stem from systemic vulnerabilities or deliberate opportunism within the Eurosystem. While it does not advocate for illicit activities, the article highlights significant weaknesses in the current structure and concludes that comprehensive reforms are urgently needed.

Attitudes towards the rich are far more positive in Sweden than in France, Spain, Germany, and Italy. Attitudes towards the market economy are also more positive in Sweden than in all other European countries, except Poland. Although Sweden is perceived by some as a model of ‘democratic socialism’, it has been 50 years since that this was – almost – the case. Today, Sweden is one of the ten most economically free countries in the world, although income tax is still above average. Corporate taxes are moderate, however, and inheritance, gift, and wealth taxes have been abolished. This article presents the findings of two surveys conducted by Ipsos MORI in Sweden. The first survey focused on perceptions of the rich, the second explored attitudes towards the market economy and capitalism.

Throughout history, overpopulation has consistently been recognised as a significant issue, causing concern even among early civilisations. In certain societies, such as the Neanderthal, Maori, Fijian and Congolese, cannibalism emerged to control population and provide a source of sustenance for the rest of the tribe (Culotta, 1999; Rubinstein, 2004). The Greeks were also among the first to raise awareness about the problem of overpopulation, expressing concerns about food supplies and population growth (Harrow, 1996). Even parts of the Bible can be seen as advocating population control to maintain balance in the world (Ehrlich, 1968), although it can be considered contradictory to the dictum “be fruitful and multiply” (Genesis 1: 28).

These concerns have persisted over time and have been reinforced by the works of influential researchers on public policies. Examples include The Population Bomb (Ehrlich, 1968) and The Limits of Growth (Meadows et al., 1972), which made dire predictions about the future of humanity. These concerns continue to be relevant with regular media reports or reports by institutional agencies such as the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) indicating that we have passed the sustainable equilibrium point. Moreover, more extreme predictions are made pointing towards global warming exceeding 5 °C by 2100, undeniably alarming and posing an existential threat to the lives and well-being of billions. Furthermore, despite lacking recognition by the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), the concept of the ‘Anthropocene epoch’ is now present in scientific literature.

In the light of these ideas, human activity is often seen as incompatible with the preservation of the planet, and directly affects the continuance of the human population itself (Shukla et al., 2019). This is partly due to the limited availability of agricultural land and political proposals to control anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Although it has been nearly 250 years since Malthus (1798) and 150 years since William Stanley Jevons (Missemer, 2012) sounded the alarm, the message remains the same: humans are the problem.

In this challenging situation, it is apparently difficult to reconcile continued human population growth with environmental conservation or the establishment of protected areas. Around the world, there are various types of such protected areas, including rural parks and marine protected areas, that attempt to balance human presence with environmental conservation. Indeed, some argue that humans should be removed from these areas altogether. In contrast, I aim to demonstrate that the presence of humans in many regions is not detrimental but rather beneficial. Even in densely p