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A futures literacy application in health care: The managed outcomes project case study 未来扫盲在医疗保健中的应用:管理成果项目案例研究
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.20200324(3).0004
P. Forte, Riel Miller, Tom Bowen, J. Vissers, R. Faubel, E. Pavi, Tomi Malmström
A Futures Literacy application to a major healthcare project is described. Funded under the EU FP7 framework, the 'Man-aged Outcomes' project modelled resource usage across four different medical conditions and linked this with patient health outcomes. A Futures Literacy approach was undertaken to explore scenarios for future care provision in 18 workshops, and five languages. Facilitator training, workshop preparation, delivery and outcomes are described. The process provided a consistent framework for generating relevant outputs from local care professionals and indicated potential operational process developments to improve patient outcomes.
描述了一个主要医疗保健项目的Futures Literacy应用程序。在欧盟FP7框架下资助的“老年结果”项目模拟了四种不同医疗条件下的资源使用情况,并将其与患者健康结果联系起来。采取了一种未来扫盲方法,以探索未来护理提供的情景,包括18个讲习班和5种语言。介绍了辅导员培训、研讨会准备、交付和成果。该流程为从当地护理专业人员那里产生相关产出提供了一个一致的框架,并指出了改善患者结果的潜在操作流程发展。
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引用次数: 1
Science Fiction as Moral Allegory 作为道德寓言的科幻小说
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2020-03-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.202003_24(3).0008
Timothy M. Dolan
An extraordinary amount of science fiction (SF) carries significant content of a moralistic nature consistently reflecting concerns about social becoming nested within the context of the times the works were written (Blackford, 2017). As a rule it is perilous to lump an entire genre into any single orientation, but in the case of SF and ethics there are strong connections especially in the classic works familiar to the general public. It makes a lot of sense when one considers that ethics is much about consequences and SF is much about illuminating them. “Moral literature” is a term likely to set off associations with various scripturally based “just so” stories, often written for children as digestible lessons in the faith, or as with Aesop’s fables, intended to carry explicit principles of human relations. These tales were explicitly meant to justify existing conventions as well as highlight key social principles. The favored genres of this literature are fable and apologue through which the normative world is justified in contradistinction to parable (“It has been written, but I say unto you...”) and satire; which are the genres of subversion. Layered over this stratum of edification literature were the now archaic studies in character development that held popular attention in the 18 and through to the early 20 century. These were exemplified in the works of Charles Dickens, and in America through the Horatio Alger stories. These coincided with a strain of “muscular Christianity” that manifested itself in both the YMCA and Boy Scouts in response to the societal consequences of concentrating large numbers of young men in the manufacturing centers where drunkenness, gambling and prostitution were corroding civilization itself in the eyes of the churchmen of the day. These series relentlessly pressed the theme of triumph over adversity. Weakness of the flesh rigorously suppressed through sport was also a well-worn theme persisting well into more recent times as this author recalls arguments in favor of school athletics programs for males as a means to dampen sexual impulse. Thus this moralistic literature was much shaped as a response to industrialization and its resulting initial in-migration of young single men. These emphases on moral virtue would wax and wane as industrial urbanism began to mature and new mediums were introduced. A kind of dialectical struggle for hearts and minds would play out in the early 20 century with the rise of the novel. The novel itself as a literary form had a reputation for titillation in the eyes of the straightlaced, but its broad popularity determined that titillation might be okay if it was well written by, say, a D.H. Lawrence. In Europe surrealism and the explosive works of Sigmund Freud would mark the contradictory shadow side of imperial order, and rigid rationality that marked a wide swath of Western Europe from Victorian London to Vienna. Ultimately it would be World War I that would bring the biggest c
大量的科幻小说(SF)带有道德性质的重要内容,始终反映出对作品所写时代背景下社会嵌套的担忧(Blackford, 2017)。一般来说,把一种类型的小说归为单一的方向是危险的,但科幻小说和伦理学之间有着密切的联系,尤其是在大众熟悉的经典作品中。当一个人考虑到道德更多的是关于结果,而科幻小说更多的是照亮结果时,这就很有意义了。“道德文学”这个词很可能会让人联想到各种基于圣经的“就这样”故事,这些故事通常是为孩子们写的,作为易于理解的信仰课程,或者像伊索寓言一样,旨在传达明确的人际关系原则。这些故事显然是为了证明现有的习俗是合理的,同时也强调了关键的社会原则。这种文学最受欢迎的体裁是寓言和辩白,通过它们,规范的世界被证明是合理的,而不是寓言(“它已经写好了,但我告诉你……”)和讽刺;这些都是颠覆的类型。在这一教化文学之上的是现在已经过时的人物发展研究,这些研究在18世纪和20世纪初受到了广泛关注。查尔斯·狄更斯的作品和美国的霍雷肖·阿尔杰的小说都体现了这一点。与此同时,基督教青年会(YMCA)和童子军(Boy Scouts)也出现了一种“肌肉基督教”(muscular Christianity),以应对大量年轻人集中在制造业中心的社会后果。在当时的教会人士看来,制造业中心的酗酒、赌博和卖淫正在侵蚀文明本身。这些系列剧无情地强调了战胜逆境的主题。通过体育运动严格压制肉体的弱点也是一个老生常谈的主题,一直持续到最近,正如作者回忆起支持学校体育项目作为抑制性冲动的一种手段的论点一样。因此,这种道德主义文学在很大程度上是对工业化及其导致的年轻单身男子最初移民的回应。随着工业城市主义的成熟和新媒介的引入,这些对道德美德的强调会起起落落。20世纪初,随着小说的兴起,一种心灵和思想的辩证斗争开始了。小说本身作为一种文学形式,在刻板的人眼中以刺激而闻名,但它的广泛受欢迎程度决定了,如果是D.H.劳伦斯(D.H. Lawrence)这样的人写得好,刺激可能是可以接受的。在欧洲,超现实主义和西格蒙德·弗洛伊德的爆炸性作品标志着帝国秩序的矛盾阴影,以及从维多利亚时代的伦敦到维也纳的西欧大片地区的严格理性。最终,第一次世界大战给道德辩护带来了最大的挑战。公开的
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引用次数: 2
Future estrangement: not having a place in the emerging future 未来的隔阂:在新兴的未来没有立足之地
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.202012_25(2).0002
D. Bengston
Future estrangement is a profound sense of alienation toward the future. It is the deep-seated feeling that the future is a hostile and bewildering world that we may not have a place in - or may not want to have a place in. This paper outlines numerous impending threats that are the main sources of future estrangement and discusses strategies to overcome this perilous attitude toward the future. Ultimately, reversing the spread of future estrangement will require both addressing its root causes and building resiliency at all levels and in all domains of society.
对未来的疏远是对未来的一种深刻的疏离感。这是一种根深蒂固的感觉,即未来是一个充满敌意和令人困惑的世界,我们可能在其中没有一席之地——或者可能不想在其中占有一席之地。本文概述了许多迫在眉睫的威胁,这些威胁是未来疏远的主要来源,并讨论了克服这种对未来的危险态度的策略。最终,要扭转未来隔阂的蔓延,就需要解决其根源,并在各级和社会各领域建立复原力。
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引用次数: 1
Redefining the colonial: An Afrofuturist analysis of Wakanda and speculative fiction 重新定义殖民地:对瓦坎达和思辨小说的非洲主义分析
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.201912_24(2).0003
Ricardo A Guthrie
The world of Wakanda, as depicted in the film Black Panther (2018), provided an opportunity for viewers to bask in the glorious scenes, heroic drama, Black feminist power, and guile of an African world bordering on the fantastic. Starving audiences seeking Black filmic culture eagerly settled for Wakandan fantasy - based on the filmmaker’s magnificent achievement to build a fanciful and engaging vision for Black viewers and comic-book aficionados alike. It was a significant relief to enjoy Black Panther, even with its errant vision of thuggish conflict by an anti-hero whose rationale for sharing Wakandan technology to save Africans in the diaspora made sense - though his violent demand for war-like resolution did not. It was also an unfortunate plot line to make a white CIA agent a hero, or to depict the United Nations as the platform for peacefully bringing Wakanda to light. But these are side issues to the main conceptual framework, and dilemma, presented by the film: What does a modern African nation look like, if it has not been created though colonialism? Can African-Diasporic art, culture, language, music and cinematography provide a foundation for envisioning a “Wakandan” world that is neither utopic nor dystopic? How do we redefine Afro-Diasporic possibility, existing outside of colonial, neocolonial and postcolonial imaginations? While addressing such issues, we should not belittle Black Panther’s global cinematic accomplishment, but instead seek to deploy Afrofuturist analytics to narrowly examine two questions: How does an imaginary realm of the African world - untouched by colonialism - affirm Black genius and futurity to enable current generations to de-program ourselves and combat anti-Black racism? And, how can Black speculative fiction re-fashion a de-colonial space beyond Wakanda, in the current nation-states and community places within which Afro-diasporic peoples struggle daily for sustenance, power, and joy? Using the complex array of Afrofuturist and global Pan-Africanist analyses provided by theorists such as Eshun (2003), Anderson and Jones (2015), Mudimbe (1988), and futurists such as Inayatullah (2008), Sardar (2009), and Gatune (2010, 2011), this essay examines how Wakanda exists within colonial spaces and how Black speculative fiction (as well as the Black Panther film itself) depend upon a de-colonial imagination for sustenance and legibility.
正如电影《黑豹》(2018)中所描绘的那样,瓦坎达的世界为观众提供了一个机会,让他们沉浸在一个近乎奇幻的非洲世界的辉煌场景、英雄戏剧、黑人女权主义力量和狡诈中。渴望寻求黑人电影文化的观众热切地选择了瓦坎丹幻想——这是基于这位电影制作人为黑人观众和漫画迷建立了一个富有想象力和吸引力的愿景的辉煌成就。享受《黑豹》是一种巨大的解脱,即使它对一个反英雄的残暴冲突的错误愿景,他分享瓦坎丹技术以拯救散居海外的非洲人的理由是有道理的,尽管他对战争般解决方案的暴力要求并没有。将一名白人中情局特工塑造成英雄,或者将联合国描绘成和平揭露瓦坎达的平台,这也是一条不幸的情节线。但这些都是电影所呈现的主要概念框架和困境的次要问题:如果一个现代非洲国家不是通过殖民主义创建的,它会是什么样子?非洲本土艺术、文化、语言、音乐和电影摄影能否为设想一个既不是乌托邦也不是反乌托邦的“瓦坎丹”世界奠定基础?我们如何重新定义存在于殖民、新殖民和后殖民想象之外的非洲双孢子虫的可能性?在解决这些问题的同时,我们不应该贬低《黑豹》在全球电影方面的成就,而应该寻求运用非洲主义者的分析来狭隘地审视两个问题:一个未受殖民主义影响的非洲世界的想象领域如何肯定黑人的天才和未来性,使当代人能够取消对自己的编程,打击反黑人种族主义?而且,在当前的民族国家和社区中,黑人思辨小说如何在瓦坎达之外重新塑造一个去殖民的空间,在这些地方,非洲流散的人民每天都在为生计、权力和欢乐而斗争?使用Eshun(2003)、Anderson和Jones(2015)、Mudimbe(1988)等理论家以及Inayatullah(2008)、Sardar(2009)和Gatune(20102011)等未来主义者提供的一系列复杂的非洲主义和全球泛非主义分析,本文探讨了瓦坎达是如何在殖民空间中存在的,以及黑人推理小说(以及《黑豹》电影本身)是如何依赖于去殖民的想象力来维持和易读的。
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引用次数: 4
A Manifesto for Decolonising Design 非殖民化设计宣言
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2019-03-23 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.201903_23(3).0012
D. Abdulla, Ahmed Ansari, Ece Canlı, M. Keshavarz, M. Kiem, P. Oliveira, Luiza Prado, T. Schultz
Much of the academic and professional discourse within the design disciplines over the last century has been bereft of a critical reflection on the politics of design practice, and on the politics of the artifacts, systems and practices that designerly activity produces. Our premise is that— notwithstanding important and valued exceptions—design theory, practice, and pedagogy as a whole are not geared towards delivering the kinds of knowledge and understanding that are adequate to addressing longstanding systemic issues of power.These issues are products of modernity and its ideologies, regimes, and institutions reiterating, producing and exerting continued colonial power upon the lives of oppressed, marginalised, and subaltern peoples in both the ‘developed’ and ‘developing’ world. This planet, shared and co- inhabited by a plurality of peoples, each inhabiting different worlds, each orienting themselves within and towards their environments in different ways, and with different civilisational histories, is being undermined by a globalised system of power that threatens to flatten and eradicate ontological and epistemological difference, rewriting histories and advance visions of a future for a privileged few at the expense of their human and nonhuman others.
在上个世纪,设计学科中的许多学术和专业话语都缺乏对设计实践的政治,以及设计师活动产生的人工制品,系统和实践的政治的批判性反思。我们的前提是,尽管有重要和有价值的例外,但设计理论、实践和教学作为一个整体,并不是为了提供足以解决长期系统性权力问题的知识和理解。这些问题是现代性及其意识形态、政权和制度的产物,在“发达”和“发展中”世界中,对被压迫、边缘化和次等人民的生活不断重复、产生和施加殖民权力。这个由多个民族共享和共同居住的星球,每个民族都居住在不同的世界,每个人都以不同的方式在自己的环境中定位自己,并拥有不同的文明历史,正在被全球化的权力体系所破坏,这种权力体系有可能扁平化和根除本体论和认识论的差异,改写历史,并以牺牲人类和非人类其他人为代价,为少数特权阶层推进未来的愿景。
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引用次数: 15
Towards A Novel Model for Smart Sustainable City Planning and Development: A Scholarly Backcasting Approach 迈向智慧可持续城市规划与发展的新模式:学术回溯法
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.201909_24(1).0004
Simon Elias Bibri, J. Krogstie
In the early 1990s, the discourse on sustainable development produced the concept of sustainable urban forms that became, and continue to be, a hegemonic response to the challenges of sustainable development. However, such forms have been problematic, whether in theory or practice, and indeed are associated with a number of problems, issues, and challenges. This involves the question of how they should be monitored, understood, analyzed, planned, and even integrated so as to improve, advance, and maintain their contribution to sustainability. This brings us to the issue of sustainable cities and smart cities being extremely fragmented as landscapes and weakly connected as approaches, despite the proven role and untapped potential of advanced ICT, especially big data technology, for advancing sustainability under what is labeled “smart sustainable cities.” Essentially, there are multiple visions of such cities, and indeed multiple pathways to achieving them. With that in regard, this futures study aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for smart sustainable city planning and development using backcasting as a scholarly approach. It involves a series of papers of which this paper is the first, and which aims to report the outcomes of Step 1 and Step 2—an overview of a detailed trend analysis and a review of sustainable urban forms—by answering the guiding questions for each step. We argue that a deeper understanding between social, technological, and scientific solutions is required to achieve more sustainable urban forms. Visionary images of a long–term future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards achieving the long–term goals of sustainability. The proposed model is believed to be the first of its kind and thus has not been, to the best of one’s knowledge, produced, nor is it being currently investigated, elsewhere.
20世纪90年代初,关于可持续发展的论述产生了可持续城市形态的概念,这一概念成为并将继续成为对可持续发展挑战的霸权回应。然而,无论是在理论上还是在实践中,这种形式都存在问题,并且确实与许多问题、问题和挑战相关联。这涉及到如何监测、理解、分析、计划,甚至整合它们的问题,以便改进、推进和保持它们对可持续性的贡献。这给我们带来了可持续城市和智慧城市的问题,尽管先进的信息通信技术(尤其是大数据技术)在促进“智能可持续城市”的可持续性方面发挥了成熟的作用和未开发的潜力,但作为景观,可持续城市和智慧城市极其分散,而作为方法,它们之间的联系却很弱。从本质上讲,这样的城市有多种愿景,也有多种实现它们的途径。鉴于此,本研究旨在分析、调查和开发一种新的智能可持续城市规划和发展模型,并将反向预测作为一种学术方法。它涉及一系列论文,本文是其中的第一篇,旨在通过回答每一步的指导性问题,报告步骤1和步骤2的结果——详细趋势分析的概述和可持续城市形式的回顾。我们认为,为了实现更可持续的城市形态,需要对社会、技术和科学解决方案进行更深入的理解。对长期未来有远见的设想可以促进加速实现可持续发展的长期目标。所提出的模型被认为是同类模型中的第一个,因此,据我所知,没有在其他地方生产,也没有在其他地方进行研究。
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引用次数: 7
How the future happens 未来是如何发生的
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.201903_23(3).0007
J. Auger, J. Hanna
Industrial design, for the most part, is about exploiting the potential of new technologies to create functional, usable and desirable products design is at the heart of future formation. Unfortunately, this process is mostly devoid of any critical or philosophical foundation. Some myths taught at design school: 1. Design is good. 2. Design makes people’s lives better. 3. Design solves problems.
工业设计,在很大程度上,是关于开发新技术的潜力,以创造功能,可用和理想的产品,设计是未来形成的核心。不幸的是,这个过程大多缺乏任何批判或哲学基础。设计学校教授的一些误区:设计是好的。2. 设计让人们的生活更美好。3.设计解决问题。
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引用次数: 5
Students' Abilities to Envision Scenarios of Urban Futures 学生对城市未来设想的能力
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2018-12-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.201812_23(2).0004
Iris Pauw, J. Schee, T. Béneker, van der R. Vaart
In this paper, we report on students’ abilities to envision scenarios of urban futures after a lesson series based on futures education. The results on the critical and creative scenario thinking of geography students in three upper sec- ondary schools improved significantly between a pretest and posttest. However, embedding newly imagined ideas in the spatial structures of tomorrow’s cities turned out to be challenging for students. Although geographical knowledge and skills do seem to support students in scenario thinking, it appears to be a complex task to effectively combine knowledge and imagination in scenarios of urban futures.
在本文中,我们报告了学生在基于未来教育的系列课程后对城市未来情景的设想能力。三所高中地理系学生的批判性和创造性情景思维在前测和后测之间有显著改善。然而,将新想象的想法融入未来城市的空间结构对学生来说是一项挑战。尽管地理知识和技能似乎确实支持学生的情景思维,但在城市未来的情景中有效地结合知识和想象力似乎是一项复杂的任务。
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引用次数: 3
STEM: Silver bullet for a viable future or just more flatland? STEM:未来可行的灵丹妙药还是更平坦的土地?
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.201806.22(4).0003
Caroline Smith, Jane Watson
This article explores contentious issues that arise from unproblematised calls for STEM (the disciplines of Science, Mathematics, Engineering and Technology) to provide innovative solutions to two existential problems of the 21st century: employment and environmental sustainability. We situate STEM as a neoliberal construct within a hypermodernist techno-optimist future, a manifestation of Wilber’s "flatland". We argue that while STEM undoubtedly plays an important role into the future, rather than being taken at face value as an unexamined good, its taken-forgranted but contradictory role is naive and misplaced and must be subject to serious critique. We argue that in its current conceptualisation, STEM’s role is inherently unable to provide the sustainability of future employment in a knowledge-based economy. We question the enthusiastic promotion of STEM as key contributor to an environmentally sustainable future as we enter the epoch of the Anthropocene, and examine the role of STEM education, in contrast to Education for Sustainability (EfS). We conclude that STEM and STEM education need to include critical and futures perspectives in order to align more fully with a flourishing economic, social and environmental future.
本文探讨了由对STEM(科学、数学、工程和技术学科)的毫无疑问的呼吁所产生的有争议的问题,为21世纪存在的两个问题:就业和环境可持续性提供创新的解决方案。我们将STEM定位为超现代主义技术乐观主义未来中的新自由主义结构,这是威尔伯“平坦地带”的一种表现。我们认为,尽管STEM无疑在未来扮演着重要的角色,而不是在表面上被视为一种未经检验的好东西,但它被视为理所当然但矛盾的角色是幼稚和错位的,必须受到严肃的批评。我们认为,在目前的概念中,STEM的角色本质上无法在知识经济中提供未来就业的可持续性。当我们进入人类世时代时,我们质疑STEM作为环境可持续未来的关键贡献者的热情推广,并研究STEM教育的作用,与可持续发展教育(EfS)相比。我们的结论是,STEM和STEM教育需要包括批判性和未来视角,以便更充分地与繁荣的经济、社会和环境未来保持一致。
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引用次数: 10
Co-futuring narratives for Toowoomba - a regional Australian community Toowoomba -一个区域性的澳大利亚社区的共同未来叙事
IF 0.8 Q4 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING Pub Date : 2017-09-01 DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2017.22(1).A19
D. L. Wright, D. Baker, L. Buys, Michael Cuthill, Severine Mayere, C. Susilawati
The futures of regional communities are a matter of worldwide concern. In Australia, given the rapidly changing nature of rural and regional communities, a futuring program was proposed to explore 'community development' scenarios guided by local stakeholder participation. The venue for our futuring research was the regional city of Toowoomba, in Queensland, Australia. Over the past decade, Toowoomba has reacted to significant change in response to local and global effects, such as the resource boom and shifts in agricultural production. As a consequence there are a number of social, economic and environmental impacts whose cumulative effect could threaten the city's future vitality. An inter-disciplinary research team co-developed a Futuring Tool-Box (FTB) incorporating a comprehensive range of acknowledged tools and methods. A futuring workshop was held to identify the futures issues specific to Toowoomba. Participants were professionals, CEOs and NGOs living in the Toowoomba region, identified as actively futures-aware. This paper focuses on their voices and the future scenarios they co-created, and concludes with a suite of follow-up strategies.
区域共同体的未来是全世界关注的问题。在澳大利亚,考虑到农村和地区社区迅速变化的性质,提出了一项未来计划,探索由当地利益相关者参与指导的“社区发展”方案。我们未来的研究地点是澳大利亚昆士兰州的地方城市图文巴。在过去的十年里,图沃姆巴对当地和全球影响的重大变化做出了反应,比如资源繁荣和农业生产的转变。因此,会产生一系列的社会、经济和环境影响,其累积效应可能会威胁到城市未来的活力。一个跨学科的研究团队合作开发了一个未来工具箱(FTB),其中包含了广泛的公认工具和方法。举办了一个未来研讨会,以确定Toowoomba特有的未来问题。与会者是生活在图文巴地区的专业人士、首席执行官和非政府组织,他们被认为是积极了解未来的人。本文关注他们的声音和他们共同创造的未来情景,并总结了一套后续策略。
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引用次数: 4
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