Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A19
R. Ono
Since the publication of The Limits to Growth in 1972, it is hoped that human beings have become more aware of potential crises and have become more proactive to prevent those crises from happening. Halal and Marien held a symposium on the Global Megacrisis in the Journal of Futures Studies in 2011. Based on the discussion in the symposium, this paper tries to reveal why a crisis often leads to a collapse even if warnings about the crisis have been issued for some time. It uses as a case the collapse of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, which occurred on March 11, 2011. The paper argues that the root cause of a crisis in society is found in the crisis of self-worth inside individuals and organizations.
自1972年《增长的极限》出版以来，人们希望人类能够更加意识到潜在的危机，并更加积极主动地防止这些危机的发生。2011年，Halal和Marien在《期货研究杂志》上举办了一场关于全球大危机的研讨会。在研讨会讨论的基础上，本文试图揭示为什么危机往往导致崩溃，即使危机的警告已经发布了一段时间。它以2011年3月11日发生的福岛第一核电站(Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant)的垮塌为例。本文认为，社会危机的根源在于个人和组织内部的自我价值危机。
{"title":"Internal Crisis as an Impediment to Futures Thinking","authors":"R. Ono","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A19","url":null,"abstract":"Since the publication of The Limits to Growth in 1972, it is hoped that human beings have become more aware of potential crises and have become more proactive to prevent those crises from happening. Halal and Marien held a symposium on the Global Megacrisis in the Journal of Futures Studies in 2011. Based on the discussion in the symposium, this paper tries to reveal why a crisis often leads to a collapse even if warnings about the crisis have been issued for some time. It uses as a case the collapse of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, which occurred on March 11, 2011. The paper argues that the root cause of a crisis in society is found in the crisis of self-worth inside individuals and organizations.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S115
S. Inayatullah
{"title":"Intuiting the Future(s)","authors":"S. Inayatullah","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S115","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S119
O. Markley
This essay is part of a special “Symposium” issue of the Journal of Futures Studies focusing on Intuition in Futures Work. It builds on the brief summary review of conceptual positions about practical intuition contained in my brief introduction to the symposium (Markley, 2015), and describes the specific sources, methods and explanatory models I personally have found most useful in my own professional trajectory as I learned the practical art of using intuition in futures studies. It ends with suggestions for handling the problem of when doing this type of work in public settings.
{"title":"Learning to Use Intuition in Futures Studies: A Bibliographic Essay on Personal Sources, Processes and Concerns","authors":"O. Markley","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S119","url":null,"abstract":"This essay is part of a special “Symposium” issue of the Journal of Futures Studies focusing on Intuition in Futures Work. It builds on the brief summary review of conceptual positions about practical intuition contained in my brief introduction to the symposium (Markley, 2015), and describes the specific sources, methods and explanatory models I personally have found most useful in my own professional trajectory as I learned the practical art of using intuition in futures studies. It ends with suggestions for handling the problem of when doing this type of work in public settings.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327124","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S91
J. Ramos
This essay details my own learning and experiences with respect to intuition and futures studies. The essay is in part an auto-ethnographic narrative that attempts to situate my own personal experiences in a broader cultural context. It also describes intuitions’ pivotal role in both bringing me to futures studies and guiding me within futures studies. I employ the voice dialog perspective of Hal and Sidra Stone (1989) to shed light on intuition’s place in an ecology of ‘inner’ selves, and I also employ the action research framework developed by Reason and Bradbury (2001) to make sense of intuition’s place in an approach to triangulation for futures research.
{"title":"The Inner Game of Futures","authors":"J. Ramos","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S91","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S91","url":null,"abstract":"This essay details my own learning and experiences with respect to intuition and futures studies. The essay is in part an auto-ethnographic narrative that attempts to situate my own personal experiences in a broader cultural context. It also describes intuitions’ pivotal role in both bringing me to futures studies and guiding me within futures studies. I employ the voice dialog perspective of Hal and Sidra Stone (1989) to shed light on intuition’s place in an ecology of ‘inner’ selves, and I also employ the action research framework developed by Reason and Bradbury (2001) to make sense of intuition’s place in an approach to triangulation for futures research.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A55
V. MacGill
This paper investigates how the myth/metaphor layer of Inayatullah's Causal Layered Analysis is formed, using an embodied cognitive approach. The very way we experience the world, move in it, interact within it and orient our body to our environment generates patterns and concepts that form as metaphors. Language is saturated in metaphor. As we interact together shared metaphors connect together to emerge and take shape as myths. These are the building blocks of Inayatullah's worldview layer. The worldview that emerges from social interactions of a group of people form a particular arrangement of interlinking elements from the myth/metaphor layer. The worldview informs the systemic layer, which in turn informs the litany of everyday life. Any particular worldview is therefore only ever one within many possible ways of interlinking the mythic and epistemic elements. It is easy to fall into the trap of assuming our particular worldview is the best, or even the only true worldview. CLA helps us to avoid this problem as it problematises the present and find new metaphors to enable us to envision alternative and preferred futures.
{"title":"Unravelling the Myth/Metaphor Layer in Causal Layered Analysis","authors":"V. MacGill","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A55","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A55","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how the myth/metaphor layer of Inayatullah's Causal Layered Analysis is formed, using an embodied cognitive approach. The very way we experience the world, move in it, interact within it and orient our body to our environment generates patterns and concepts that form as metaphors. Language is saturated in metaphor. As we interact together shared metaphors connect together to emerge and take shape as myths. These are the building blocks of Inayatullah's worldview layer. The worldview that emerges from social interactions of a group of people form a particular arrangement of interlinking elements from the myth/metaphor layer. The worldview informs the systemic layer, which in turn informs the litany of everyday life. Any particular worldview is therefore only ever one within many possible ways of interlinking the mythic and epistemic elements. It is easy to fall into the trap of assuming our particular worldview is the best, or even the only true worldview. CLA helps us to avoid this problem as it problematises the present and find new metaphors to enable us to envision alternative and preferred futures.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S139
M. Bussey
{"title":"Intuition, Rationality and Imagination","authors":"M. Bussey","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S139","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S111
B. Hubbard
{"title":"Intuition and Evolution-How I Find It Essential to Use Intuition in My Futures Work","authors":"B. Hubbard","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S111","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S131
M. Anthony
{"title":"Classical Intuition and Critical Futures","authors":"M. Anthony","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).S131","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A35
C. Russo
During 2000-2015, Queensland Councils emerged from the darkness of 'tokenistic' community consultation processes articulated by Arnstein (1969). The work of community engagement professionals to update Council methods in line with advancing technology and in designing new business models and strategies for the governance of consultations is arguably still in its 'teens'. One way forward is to continue a linear projected future, with a short-term view focused just ahead, which is still the norm. However, in an environment of rapid change, this approach is far too reactive, restrictive, shortsighted and un-consultative, resulting in the loss of possibilities. This article uses Inayatullah's (2008) six futures questions to create alternative community engagement futures to 2030.
{"title":"Engaging Futures 2030: Futures Methods Transforming Governance","authors":"C. Russo","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(1).A35","url":null,"abstract":"During 2000-2015, Queensland Councils emerged from the darkness of 'tokenistic' community consultation processes articulated by Arnstein (1969). The work of community engagement professionals to update Council methods in line with advancing technology and in designing new business models and strategies for the governance of consultations is arguably still in its 'teens'. One way forward is to continue a linear projected future, with a short-term view focused just ahead, which is still the norm. However, in an environment of rapid change, this approach is far too reactive, restrictive, shortsighted and un-consultative, resulting in the loss of possibilities. This article uses Inayatullah's (2008) six futures questions to create alternative community engagement futures to 2030.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2015-01-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2015.20(2).E113
P. Raven
Histories of futurism and/or futures studies tend to see the discipline as having its roots in the “operations research” paradigm of the mid-20th Century, which in turn emerged from what eventually became the RAND Corporation (for an exemplar see e.g. Bell, 1996). To construct futurism in such a manner is to ignore many other disciplines whose focus has also been on the development, description and analysis of imagined futures. The RAND-rooted history restricts “proper” futurism to a predominantly scientific (and frequently scientistic), positivist, quantitative and rationalist paradigm, and excludes the more qualitative work of political science, sociology, social theory, architecture and urban planning, as well as the more nakedly speculative and/or imaginative futurist practices of artists and authors. To discard this history is, I believe, to discard some important lessons about what futurism can realistically hope to achieve as regards depicting normative or “preferred” futures.
{"title":"Imagining the Impossible: The Shifting Role of Utopian Thought in Civic Planning, Science Fiction, and Futures Studies","authors":"P. Raven","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2015.20(2).E113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2015.20(2).E113","url":null,"abstract":"Histories of futurism and/or futures studies tend to see the discipline as having its roots in the “operations research” paradigm of the mid-20th Century, which in turn emerged from what eventually became the RAND Corporation (for an exemplar see e.g. Bell, 1996). To construct futurism in such a manner is to ignore many other disciplines whose focus has also been on the development, description and analysis of imagined futures. The RAND-rooted history restricts “proper” futurism to a predominantly scientific (and frequently scientistic), positivist, quantitative and rationalist paradigm, and excludes the more qualitative work of political science, sociology, social theory, architecture and urban planning, as well as the more nakedly speculative and/or imaginative futurist practices of artists and authors. To discard this history is, I believe, to discard some important lessons about what futurism can realistically hope to achieve as regards depicting normative or “preferred” futures.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2015-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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