Pub Date : 2017-06-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2017.21(4).A51
F. Ithnin, M. Nor, M. R. Yusoff
{"title":"Futures scenarios for Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka (UTeM)","authors":"F. Ithnin, M. Nor, M. R. Yusoff","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2017.21(4).A51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2017.21(4).A51","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"21 1","pages":"51-64"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2017-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49223170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-10-12DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).A49
Samira Yaghooty, R. Pishghadam
This article examines the prospect of replacing EFL (English as a Foreign Language) teachers with technology in Iran. It has adopted the approach of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to analyze the data collected from interviews with 10 EFL experts in Iran. The four layers of CLA do suggest that it is unlikely that technology will replace EFL teachers in Iran by 2030. Iran, being a hierarchical, collectivist, and restrained society with a normative cultural orientation and preference for avoiding uncertainty, will be reluctant to accept technological innovation so quickly which would replace EFL teachers. Further research covering a time frame beyond 2030 would be needed.
{"title":"Delving into the Future of Iran's English Language Teaching in Light of Technology","authors":"Samira Yaghooty, R. Pishghadam","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).A49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).A49","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the prospect of replacing EFL (English as a Foreign Language) teachers with technology in Iran. It has adopted the approach of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to analyze the data collected from interviews with 10 EFL experts in Iran. The four layers of CLA do suggest that it is unlikely that technology will replace EFL teachers in Iran by 2030. Iran, being a hierarchical, collectivist, and restrained society with a normative cultural orientation and preference for avoiding uncertainty, will be reluctant to accept technological innovation so quickly which would replace EFL teachers. Further research covering a time frame beyond 2030 would be needed.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"21 1","pages":"49-62"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-09-30DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).A63
C. Barnatt, K. Starkey, S. Tempest
Business schools, according to certain measures, have been a major success story in the recent past of the university, enjoying significant demand growth. We suggest that their future may be more problematic. We offer different possible scenarios for business schools and identify seven key risks that they face. We argue that the most significant challenge business schools must negotiate is to redefine and clarify their mission and redesign themselves to meet these risks. We conclude that the business schools best able to survive and prosper in the future are likely to be very different from those that currently exist.
{"title":"Remember Icarus! Seven risks that threaten BusinessSchools","authors":"C. Barnatt, K. Starkey, S. Tempest","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).A63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).A63","url":null,"abstract":"Business schools, according to certain measures, have been a major success story in the recent past of the university, enjoying significant demand growth. We suggest that their future may be more problematic. We offer different possible scenarios for business schools and identify seven key risks that they face. We argue that the most significant challenge business schools must negotiate is to redefine and clarify their mission and redesign themselves to meet these risks. We conclude that the business schools best able to survive and prosper in the future are likely to be very different from those that currently exist.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).R85
Timothy E. Dolan
{"title":"The European Union Institute for Security Studies Arab Futures Report: A Review","authors":"Timothy E. Dolan","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).R85","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).R85","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"85-92"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).E77
R. Slaughter
Pathways toward ‘overshoot and collapse’ futures are not always or exclusively determined by international trends, national governments, wars and large-scale events. While these gain considerable attention their overall impact is arguably no greater than the constant ‘drip, drip, drip’ of conventional decision-making around more mundane activities that fall under familiar headings like ‘business strategy’, ‘economic growth’ and ‘development’. While cities have master plans and strategic goals most of them evolve within, and are expressed through, a continuous series of commercially inspired projects founded on narrow short-term economic assumptions. They emerge from a typically up-beat, entrepreneurial (profit-oriented) and finance-based worldview that is little short of delusional. As a result, many large-scale projects are poorly conceived and end up working against shared community interests. The central purpose of this paper is to contribute toward a broad re-appraisal of such projects in the hope that future ‘developments’ can be turned toward more consciously proactive and socially responsible ends.
{"title":"How ‘Development’ Promotes Redundant Visions: The Case of the Queen's Wharf Casino Project, Brisbane","authors":"R. Slaughter","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).E77","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).E77","url":null,"abstract":"Pathways toward ‘overshoot and collapse’ futures are not always or exclusively determined by international trends, national governments, wars and large-scale events. While these gain considerable attention their overall impact is arguably no greater than the constant ‘drip, drip, drip’ of conventional decision-making around more mundane activities that fall under familiar headings like ‘business strategy’, ‘economic growth’ and ‘development’. While cities have master plans and strategic goals most of them evolve within, and are expressed through, a continuous series of commercially inspired projects founded on narrow short-term economic assumptions. They emerge from a typically up-beat, entrepreneurial (profit-oriented) and finance-based worldview that is little short of delusional. As a result, many large-scale projects are poorly conceived and end up working against shared community interests. The central purpose of this paper is to contribute toward a broad re-appraisal of such projects in the hope that future ‘developments’ can be turned toward more consciously proactive and socially responsible ends.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"77-84"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-09-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).R93
S. Cruz, J. A. Sweeney, M. B. Ghahfarokhi
{"title":"Flavors of Practice: Developing the Asia Pacifc Futures Network","authors":"S. Cruz, J. A. Sweeney, M. B. Ghahfarokhi","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).R93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).R93","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"93-104"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).A79
Alexander Kaiser, Florian Kragulj
We introduce a new methodological framework, called Bewextra, for the creation of the knowledge of needs in organizations. The development of our framework builds on theoretical engagement with literature from several disciplines including visioning and philosophy of needs as well as empirical data from vision development processes we have accompanied. To the best of our knowledge it is the first theoretical work that describes learning from an envisioned future and the generation of need knowledge as an abductive process in a methodologically replicable way. The advantages and practical implications of our method introduced are discussed in detail.
{"title":"Bewextra: Creating and Inferring Explicit Knowledge of Needs in Organizations","authors":"Alexander Kaiser, Florian Kragulj","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).A79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).A79","url":null,"abstract":"We introduce a new methodological framework, called Bewextra, for the creation of the knowledge of needs in organizations. The development of our framework builds on theoretical engagement with literature from several disciplines including visioning and philosophy of needs as well as empirical data from vision development processes we have accompanied. To the best of our knowledge it is the first theoretical work that describes learning from an envisioned future and the generation of need knowledge as an abductive process in a methodologically replicable way. The advantages and practical implications of our method introduced are discussed in detail.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"139 1","pages":"79-97"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-06-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).E99
Maureen Rhemann
This essay examines four possible trajectories for global internet growth through the macrolens of an old American West metaphor. The essay attempts to postulate four possible alternative futures. Sustained growth of the internet is not a given and may depend heavily upon outside factors that involve a rich blending of social, technological, and regulatory, factors combined with an economically viable business climate.
{"title":"Applying CLA to Technology Planning Old ＂American West Style＂ Web Homesteading -- Exploring Metaphoric Allegories to Enrich Four Internet Sustainability Scenarios","authors":"Maureen Rhemann","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).E99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).E99","url":null,"abstract":"This essay examines four possible trajectories for global internet growth through the macrolens of an old American West metaphor. The essay attempts to postulate four possible alternative futures. Sustained growth of the internet is not a given and may depend heavily upon outside factors that involve a rich blending of social, technological, and regulatory, factors combined with an economically viable business climate.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"20 1","pages":"99-106"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-03-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.20(3).A7
Sascha Dannenberg, Theresa Grapentin
This paper addresses education as the central element of sustainable development. In the last decades several international commissions and organizations agreed on the importance of Education for Sustainable Development (ESD), resulting in the proclamation of the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) by the United Nations in 2004. Mainly based on the experiences of the UN Decade of ESD (DESD) in Germany, the paper introduces the concept ESD and especially the concept of Gestaltungskompetenz, which focuses on specific skills and capabilities needed to decide and act in situations of uncertainty and complexity. Significant achievements as well as shortcomings and challenges in implementing ESD are described and the Global Action Programme (GAP) is introduced as a significant advancement of DESD and a pivotal contribution to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
{"title":"Education for Sustainable Development - Learning for Transformation. The Example of Germany","authors":"Sascha Dannenberg, Theresa Grapentin","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.20(3).A7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.20(3).A7","url":null,"abstract":"This paper addresses education as the central element of sustainable development. In the last decades several international commissions and organizations agreed on the importance of Education for Sustainable Development (ESD), resulting in the proclamation of the Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014) by the United Nations in 2004. Mainly based on the experiences of the UN Decade of ESD (DESD) in Germany, the paper introduces the concept ESD and especially the concept of Gestaltungskompetenz, which focuses on specific skills and capabilities needed to decide and act in situations of uncertainty and complexity. Significant achievements as well as shortcomings and challenges in implementing ESD are described and the Global Action Programme (GAP) is introduced as a significant advancement of DESD and a pivotal contribution to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"20 1","pages":"7-20"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2016-03-01DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.20(3).A79
F. Radermacher
The paper deals with the issue of whether a sustainable future for humankind can be reached or not. If not, human existence would not come to an end, but the quality of existence would considerably deteriorate. For many reasons, it is not easy to get onto a sustainable track. Doing so will require the equivalent of surgery on a ＂living body＂. And many powerful vested interests are in the way. If success can at all be achieved, it will require considerable changes in global governance. The restricted quality of global governance today is a key deficit of the world we live in today. The author was often asked, what system of global governance rules for the world to implement, if one had the power to do so. The paper gives the answer to that question in the form of twelve interrelated elements of global governance for a sustainable future.
{"title":"A Better Governance for a Better Future","authors":"F. Radermacher","doi":"10.6531/JFS.2016.20(3).A79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.20(3).A79","url":null,"abstract":"The paper deals with the issue of whether a sustainable future for humankind can be reached or not. If not, human existence would not come to an end, but the quality of existence would considerably deteriorate. For many reasons, it is not easy to get onto a sustainable track. Doing so will require the equivalent of surgery on a ＂living body＂. And many powerful vested interests are in the way. If success can at all be achieved, it will require considerable changes in global governance. The restricted quality of global governance today is a key deficit of the world we live in today. The author was often asked, what system of global governance rules for the world to implement, if one had the power to do so. The paper gives the answer to that question in the form of twelve interrelated elements of global governance for a sustainable future.","PeriodicalId":44849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Futures Studies","volume":"20 1","pages":"79-92"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2016-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71327430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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