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Increase in Inbound Tourists and Long-Term Decline of Rural Economy in Japan: A Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium Analysis 日本入境游客增加与农村经济长期衰退:多区域可计算一般均衡分析
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.52324/001c.74890
Tomoru Hiramatsu
Growth in inbound tourism is expected to stimulate the Japanese economy because expenditure incurred by tourists could compensate for the decrease in consumption owing to the country’s declining population. This study conducted a simulation analysis using a multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to examine the economic impact of inbound tourists on 47 Japanese prefectural level regions. As inbound tourists visit all the regions, their economy grows in the short term. However, the impact is greater in the urban areas, which receive a higher number of tourists than the rural areas. Moreover, over the long term, people migrate from rural to urban areas where there is higher growth, leading to further growth and commercialization of urban areas. Therefore, rural regions could still suffer even if tourism leads to overall economic growth. For the development of rural regions, it is necessary to attract inbound tourists specifically to these areas.
入境旅游的增长预计将刺激日本经济,因为游客的支出可以弥补日本人口减少造成的消费减少。本研究采用多区域可计算一般均衡模型,对日本47个地级市的入境游客经济影响进行了模拟分析。随着入境游客访问所有地区,他们的经济在短期内增长。然而,城市地区受到的影响更大,因为城市地区的游客数量比农村地区要多。此外,从长期来看,人们从农村迁移到增长更快的城市地区,导致城市地区的进一步增长和商业化。因此,即使旅游业带动了整体经济增长,农村地区仍可能受到影响。为了农村地区的发展,有必要专门吸引这些地区的入境游客。
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引用次数: 0
Administrative Cost of US Counties and Local Context Dependence 美国县域行政成本与地方情境依赖
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.52324/001c.74888
Yong Chen, Lan Xue, Jae-Kook Jung, Myungjin Kim
In this paper, we investigate the spatial variations in the operational expenditures of US county governments using a novel method: the bivariate penalized spline estimation over triangulation (BPST) method. We find that the costs of providing population- and health-related services are spatially non-stationary and are affected by local characteristics, like governance structure, natural amenities, and rural-urban status. In general, county operational expenditures are higher in rural counties with more governance autonomy. The marginal administrative cost for providing population-related services is lower for counties with more elected officials. In amenity-rich counties, the administrative costs are less responsive to wage and population increases but more responsive to health-related services.
本文采用一种新的方法——基于三角剖分的二元惩罚样条估计(bivariate penalized spline estimation over triangulation, BPST),研究了美国县政府运营支出的空间变化。我们发现,提供人口和健康相关服务的成本在空间上是非固定的,并受到地方特征的影响,如治理结构、自然设施和城乡状况。总体而言,自治程度越高的农村县的运营支出越高。在拥有更多民选官员的县,提供人口相关服务的边际行政成本较低。在设施丰富的县,行政成本对工资和人口增长的响应较小,但对健康相关服务的响应更大。
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引用次数: 0
Regional Infrastructure Effects on the Life Satisfaction of Rural and Urban Residents. A Case Study for Ecuador 区域基础设施对城乡居民生活满意度的影响。厄瓜多尔的案例研究
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-29 DOI: 10.52324/001c.74886
G. Guevara‐Rosero
In developing countries, many households lack basic household services and the provision of utility infrastructure is uneven across regions, leaving lagged regions behind. This lack of infrastructure in specific places can affect the welfare of its inhabitants. This paper aims to measure the influence of household basic services and sub-national infrastructure activities on individual subjective well-being in Ecuador. To determine how important the geographical context is for individual welfare, a hierarchical ordered logistic multilevel model is conducted. The results show that the individual heterogeneity is explained in 7% by the variation across cantons. There are 52 cantons that are above the average life satisfaction and 43 cantons below it. Findings regarding infrastructure evidence that sub-national utility projects and road infrastructure have a positive significant effect on the life satisfaction of rural residents whereas it is not significant for urban residents, indicating the diminishing marginal utility of urban people. Once a satiation point is achieved, marginal utility increases are lower. As for household services, access to the internet has a higher positive welfare effect than access to sewerage and access to water via pipelines.
在发展中国家,许多家庭缺乏基本的家庭服务,公用事业基础设施的提供在各地区之间不平衡,使落后地区落后。某些地方缺乏基础设施会影响居民的福利。本文旨在衡量厄瓜多尔家庭基本服务和地方基础设施活动对个人主观幸福感的影响。为了确定地理环境对个人福利的重要性,进行了分层有序logistic多层模型。结果表明,7%的个体异质性可以用州际差异来解释。有52个州的生活满意度高于平均水平,43个州低于平均水平。关于基础设施的研究结果表明,地方公用事业项目和道路基础设施对农村居民的生活满意度有显著的正向影响,而对城市居民的生活满意度则不显著,表明城市居民的边际效用递减。一旦达到饱和点,边际效用增加就会降低。就家庭服务而言,互联网接入比污水处理和管道供水具有更高的正福利效应。
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引用次数: 0
A Personal View of Five Decades of Recessions 五十年经济衰退的个人观点
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-29 DOI: 10.52324/001c.66196
John E. Connaughton
Since 1970 the U.S. has experienced 7 recessions of various length, severity, and regional impact. This paper explores these 7 recessions and describes the causes, severity, length and regional impacts for each recession. The key takeaways from this study is that exogenous energy shocks and oil prices matter as they contributed to four of the six recessions. In addition, Federal Reserve policy matters as in three of the six recessions, the Federal Reserve either directly cause or contributed to the decline. On a regional level, the severity and duration of recession is determined by where you live. The Plains region was consistently the least impacted by downturns in the economy. The Rocky Mountain region was next in also being less cyclically sensitive to economic downturns.
自1970年以来,美国经历了7次经济衰退,其长度、严重程度和地区影响各不相同。本文探讨了这7次衰退,并描述了每次衰退的原因、严重程度、持续时间和区域影响。这项研究的关键结论是,外源性能源冲击和油价很重要,因为它们导致了六次衰退中的四次。此外,美联储的政策很重要,因为在六次经济衰退中,有三次美联储要么直接导致衰退,要么促成衰退。在地区层面上,经济衰退的严重程度和持续时间取决于你住在哪里。平原地区受经济衰退的影响一直最小。落基山脉地区紧随其后,对经济衰退的周期性敏感性也较低。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Growth and Adult Obesity Rates in Rural America 美国农村经济增长与成人肥胖率
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-27 DOI: 10.52324/001c.66201
Yancheng Li, Brian E. Whitacre
Obesity has become an increasingly severe problem in the United States. From 2008 to 2018, the adult obesity rate rose from 33.8% to 42.4%, with rates that are notably higher in rural areas when compared to their urban counterparts. Meanwhile, rural regions have experienced relatively slower employment growth and higher poverty rates during the recovery from the Great Recession. Social scientists are interested in determinants of – and potential solutions to – this rise in obesity rates. The existing literature has focused on the relationship between obesity and social/economic factors, such as the number of fast-food restaurants, limited physical activity, and unemployment rates. However, one unexplored question is whether the level of economic growth experienced by a rural area plays a role in the obesity problem. This paper assesses the impact of economic growth (measured by county-level GDP per capita) on obesity rates (measured by the county-level percentage of adults with BMI higher than 30) in rural America. Nationwide, data is collected on a host of demographic and economic characteristics for all non-metropolitan counties from 2012 to 2016, resulting in a county-level panel data set (n=1,948, t=5). Control variables include age, race and ethnicity, unemployment rates, rates of physical inactivity, food assistance program participation, and an index measuring healthy food availability. Two different econometric approaches were applied: (1) a fixed-effects panel regression model and (2) a difference-in-difference model using propensity score matching (PSM). The results of both econometric models suggest there is no relationship between economic growth and future obesity rates. This suggests that programs focused on rural economic growth may not affect other quality-of-life metrics. The conclusion discusses these competing interests and how regional scientists can play a role in future research in this area.
肥胖在美国已经成为一个日益严重的问题。从2008年到2018年,成人肥胖率从33.8%上升到42.4%,农村地区的肥胖率明显高于城市地区。与此同时,在经济从大衰退中复苏的过程中,农村地区的就业增长相对较慢,贫困率较高。社会科学家对肥胖率上升的决定因素和潜在的解决方案很感兴趣。现有的文献主要关注肥胖与社会/经济因素之间的关系,如快餐店的数量、有限的体育活动和失业率。然而,一个尚未探讨的问题是,农村地区的经济增长水平是否在肥胖问题中发挥了作用。本文评估了经济增长(以县级人均GDP衡量)对美国农村肥胖率(以县级BMI高于30的成年人百分比衡量)的影响。在全国范围内,收集了2012年至2016年所有非大都市县的大量人口和经济特征数据,得出了县级面板数据集(n= 1948, t=5)。控制变量包括年龄、种族和民族、失业率、缺乏运动的比率、食品援助计划的参与以及衡量健康食品供应的指数。采用了两种不同的计量经济学方法:(1)固定效应面板回归模型和(2)使用倾向得分匹配(PSM)的差中差模型。两种计量经济模型的结果都表明,经济增长与未来肥胖率之间没有关系。这表明,关注农村经济增长的项目可能不会影响其他生活质量指标。结论部分讨论了这些相互竞争的利益,以及区域科学家如何在该领域的未来研究中发挥作用。
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引用次数: 0
Territorial Knowledge Dynamics and Governance of Industry Networks: A Systematic Quantitative Review of Empirical Literature 产业网络的地域知识动态与治理:实证文献的系统定量回顾
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-27 DOI: 10.52324/001c.66199
Lachlan Johnson, Richard E. Eccleston, H. Murphy‐Gregory
Despite the impacts of globalization and market liberalization on economic development, factors such as location, space, industrial agglomeration, and local knowledge remain strong determinants of innovation performance and adaptive capacity in regional economies. The role of networks and institutions in knowledge sharing and innovation is therefore of paramount importance in analyzing regional development and has received significant academic attention accordingly. This review discusses trends and developments in a growing body of empirical research investigating these issues. The aim is to highlight some of the gaps between empirical research, policy relevance, and practical impact by focusing on the crucial but underdeveloped theoretical contributions of network governance approaches.
尽管全球化和市场自由化对经济发展产生了影响,但区位、空间、产业集聚和地方知识等因素仍然是区域经济创新绩效和适应能力的重要决定因素。因此,网络和机构在知识共享和创新方面的作用在分析区域发展方面具有至关重要的意义,并因此得到了学术界的广泛关注。这篇综述讨论了越来越多的实证研究调查这些问题的趋势和发展。其目的是通过关注网络治理方法的关键但不发达的理论贡献,突出实证研究、政策相关性和实际影响之间的一些差距。
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引用次数: 0
A House Price Modeling Based on Clustering and Kriging: The Medellín Case 基于聚类和克里格的房价模型:Medellín案例
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-27 DOI: 10.52324/001c.66198
H. D. Villada-Medina, Juan F. Rendón-García, C. Ramírez-Dolores, Gerardo Alcalá
In this study, house prices are modeled using a mixed two-stage model for mass appraisal employing valuations of second-hand housing units conducted in Medellín, Colombia. In the first stage, submarkets of houses that share non-spatial attributes are created using clustering; in the second stage, the spatial dependency is incorporated into the house price estimation using kriging. The best results were obtained when the sample was divided into three submarkets using property area and age as the classification criterion and later applying a Matérn kriging model to submarket 1, a spherical kriging model to submarket 2, and a circular kriging model to submarket 3. These results may provide further guidance to enhance mass appraisal practice in other Latin American cities as well as potentially other cities in developing countries.
在本研究中,房价采用混合两阶段模型进行大规模评估,采用在哥伦比亚Medellín进行的二手住房单位估值。第一阶段,利用聚类方法建立具有非空间属性的房屋子市场;第二阶段,利用克里格法将空间依赖性纳入房价估计。以财产面积和年龄为分类标准,将样本划分为3个子市场,分别对子市场1、2、3应用matsamn kriging模型和球形kriging模型,获得最佳结果。这些结果可能为加强其他拉丁美洲城市以及潜在的其他发展中国家城市的大规模评估实践提供进一步的指导。
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引用次数: 0
State Differences in Tipping Attitudes and Behavior: Attributable to State Differences in Tipping Motivations? 付小费态度和行为的州差异:归因于付小费动机的州差异?
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-27 DOI: 10.52324/001c.66200
M. Lynn
Consumers around the world give away billions of dollars annually in the form of voluntary payments (aka, tips) to service workers who have served them. This widespread and important economic activity varies across geographic areas within nations, but that geographic variability has been under-studied. This paper seeks to answer the question: “Are state differences in tipping attitudes and behavior attributable to state differences in motivations for tipping?” To that end, new measures of average tipping attitudes and motives in each of the states of the United States are developed, and their relationships with state tipping behaviors, as well as other theoretically relevant state-level measures, are tested. Results suggest meaningful and reliable state differences in attitudes toward and motivations for tipping, and that the latter differences underlie some, but not all, state differences in tipping behavior.
世界各地的消费者每年以自愿支付(也就是小费)的形式向为他们服务的服务人员支付数十亿美元。这种广泛而重要的经济活动在各国的不同地理区域有所不同,但对这种地理差异的研究还不够充分。本文试图回答这个问题:“给小费态度和行为的州差异是否可归因于给小费动机的州差异?”为此,研究人员开发了美国每个州的平均小费态度和动机的新测量方法,并测试了它们与州小费行为的关系,以及其他理论上相关的州一级测量方法。结果表明,对小费的态度和动机存在有意义和可靠的州差异,而后者的差异是小费行为中一些(但不是全部)州差异的基础。
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引用次数: 1
Accounting for Aversion: Costs of the Renewable Fuel Standard after Reaching the Blend Wall 考虑厌恶:达到混合墙后可再生燃料标准的成本
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-29 DOI: 10.52324/001c.37968
M. Noel, T. Roach
In response to escalating renewable requirements in the U.S., the EPA has approved the use of E15, a 15% ethanol blend, to eventually replace E10. Since a minimum of 10% of vehicles cannot use E15, both E10 and E15 must remain available. Due to EPA and car manufacturers’ disagreements about the safety of E15 in cars made between 2001-2012, a substantial portion of consumers will have a choice laden with uncertainty. Using a regionally-calibrated model we discuss the potential for consumer aversion to E15 and assess the change in consumer expenditures from that aversion if the mandate is met by moving consumers to E15. We find that consumer burden would amount to nearly $230 million dollars per month in our most conservative of estimates, and upwards of $929 million dollars per month if there is a modest amount of ethanol aversion. We also discuss consumer burden costs regionally for each of the eight Petroleum Administration Defense Districts. In light of this consumer burden, we discuss policy prescriptions to help mitigate such costs should the EPA choose to increase the amount of conventional biofuels that are blended into the fuel supply.
为了应对美国不断升级的可再生能源需求,美国环保署批准使用E15,一种15%乙醇混合物,最终取代E10。由于至少有10%的车辆不能使用E15,因此E10和E15必须同时可用。由于环保局和汽车制造商在2001-2012年生产的汽车中对E15的安全性存在分歧,很大一部分消费者将面临充满不确定性的选择。使用区域校准模型,我们讨论了消费者厌恶E15的可能性,并评估了如果通过将消费者转移到E15来满足要求,消费者支出的变化。我们发现,在我们最保守的估计中,消费者负担将达到每月近2.3亿美元,如果有适度的乙醇厌恶,每月将达到9.29亿美元以上。我们还讨论了消费者负担成本的区域为每个石油管理局防区。鉴于这种消费者负担,我们讨论了政策处方,以帮助减轻这种成本,如果环保署选择增加混合到燃料供应中的传统生物燃料的数量。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of State-Funded Merit Aid on the Retention of College Graduates 国家奖学金对高校毕业生留用的影响
IF 0.9 Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-27 DOI: 10.52324/001c.37970
M. Manic, Marina Ptukhina
We investigate the relationship between broad-based merit aid programs sponsored by U.S. state-level governments and the retention of college graduates. The impact of these programs is still debated and research in this field is limited. Using a unique data set for the 1988-2015 period and employing a difference-in-differences approach with adjustments for endogeneity bias, we find that: 1) states offering merit aid have higher workforce retention rates of college graduates, 2) the effect is strongest immediately after graduation and decreases over time, and 3) states with larger spending on merit aid have higher average retention rates of graduates that may be weakening faster over time compared with lower-spending states.
我们调查了由美国州级政府赞助的基础广泛的奖学金项目与挽留大学毕业生之间的关系。这些项目的影响仍然存在争议,该领域的研究也很有限。使用1988-2015年期间的独特数据集,并采用调整内生性偏差的差异中之差方法,我们发现:1)提供奖学金的州大学毕业生的劳动力保留率更高,2)效果在毕业后立即最强,并随着时间的推移而降低,3)与低支出的州相比,奖学金支出较大的州毕业生的平均保留率更高,随着时间的推移可能会更快地减弱。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Review of Regional Studies
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