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Foreign direct investment inflows and business cycles 外国直接投资流入与商业周期
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200061
László Tőkés

According to the stylized facts of the empirical real business cycle literature, investment is a procyclical variable, i.e. it co-moves with business cycles. Consequently, foreign direct investment's procyclical behavior is hypothesized and tested in this paper. A big sample of 74 (and 65 in the extended model) countries is used, and the hypothesis is tested on quarterly data with an average length of 90 periods, i.e. 22 years. Business cycles are identified by the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and the use of high-frequency data makes the results more precise and reliable. Using fixed effect regressions first the procyclicality of domestic investment is demonstrated, then the cyclical behavior of foreign direct investment is tested. Data shows that FDI is also procyclical. This result is robust, as it takes into account potential confounding variables. The paper's conclusion is that there is significant co-movement between foreign direct investment inflows and the recipient countries' business cycles.

根据实际商业周期文献的经验事实,投资是一个顺周期变量,即它与商业周期共同变动。因此,本文对外国直接投资的顺周期行为进行了假设和检验。本文使用了 74 个(扩展模型中为 65 个)国家的大样本,并对平均长度为 90 期(即 22 年)的季度数据进行了假设检验。商业周期由霍德里克-普雷斯科特滤波器识别,高频数据的使用使结果更加精确可靠。利用固定效应回归首先证明了国内投资的顺周期性,然后检验了外国直接投资的周期性行为。数据显示,外国直接投资也是顺周期的。这一结果是稳健的,因为它考虑到了潜在的混杂变量。本文的结论是,外国直接投资流入量与接受国的商业周期之间存在显著的共同变动。
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引用次数: 0
An empirical analysis of causal nexus between higher education and economic growth in BRICS countries 金砖国家高等教育与经济增长之间因果关系的实证分析
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200057
Azharuddin Mohammad Mussaiyib, Kailash Chandra Pradhan

This study examines the connection between higher education and economic growth in the BRICS countries. This study used the gross enrolment ratio (GER) to gauge the extent of higher education in the BRICS countries, while gross domestic product (GDP) was used to estimate economic growth. The study includes both time series and panel data analysis for all BRICS countries. The vector error correction model (VECM) and the vector autoregressive model (VAR) were applied to time series data to explain the causal relationship between GDP and GER. Panel data were analyzed using the panel vector auto-regression (PVAR) model. The time series analysis revealed that there is both a bi-directional and a unidirectional causal link between economic development and higher education. However, panel data analysis revealed that the causal influence of higher education was more pronounced than economic growth.

本研究探讨了金砖国家高等教育与经济增长之间的联系。本研究使用毛入学率(GER)来衡量金砖国家的高等教育程度,同时使用国内生产总值(GDP)来估算经济增长。研究包括对所有金砖国家的时间序列和面板数据分析。对时间序列数据采用了向量误差修正模型(VECM)和向量自回归模型(VAR)来解释 GDP 和 GER 之间的因果关系。使用面板向量自回归模型对面板数据进行了分析。时间序列分析表明,经济发展与高等教育之间既存在双向因果关系,也存在单向因果关系。不过,面板数据分析显示,高等教育的因果影响比经济增长更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Does governance matter to ensure significant effect of foreign direct investment on poverty reduction? Evidence from developing and emerging countries 治理对确保外国直接投资对减贫产生重大影响重要吗?发展中国家和新兴国家的证据
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200058
Zouhaier Aloui , Mekki Hamdaoui , Samir Maktouf

This paper examines the moderating role of governance in the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on poverty using simultaneous equations models for sub-Saharan African, Asian, Latin American and Eastern European countries over the period 1996–2017. The main objective of this study is to examine the role of governance as a moderator of the FDI effect on poverty. Our analyses support a positive significant impact of FDI on poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America but a negative effect in Eastern Europe, while it is not significant in Asian economies. In addition, we detect a positive conjoint impact of FDI and governance quality on poverty in all African, Latin American and Eastern European economic communities. However, this interactive effect is negative and not significant in Asia. This means that FDI reduces poverty in the presence of governance quality. Our results support that in the poorest countries (sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America), poverty is more sensitive to interactions between governance and FDIs than in the richest countries (ASIA). As policy implications of this study, governments in less developed regions must give great importance to improving the quality of governance. In this way, it becomes possible to attract foreign direct investment and increase household consumption reducing poverty as main purpose of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030.

本文利用 1996-2017 年期间撒哈拉以南非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲和东欧国家的同步方程模型,研究了治理在外国直接投资(FDI)对贫困的影响中的调节作用。本研究的主要目的是考察治理在外国直接投资对贫困的影响中的调节作用。我们的分析表明,在撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲,外国直接投资对减贫有积极的显著影响,但在东欧则有消极影响,而在亚洲经济体则不显著。此外,我们还发现,在所有非洲、拉丁美洲和东欧经济体中,外国直接投资和治理质量共同对贫困产生了积极影响。然而,在亚洲,这种互动效应是负的,而且不显著。这意味着,外国直接投资会在治理质量存在的情况下减少贫困。我们的研究结果表明,与最富裕国家(亚洲)相比,最贫困国家(撒哈拉以南非洲、拉丁美洲)的贫困问题对治理与外国直接投资之间的相互作用更为敏感。本研究的政策含义是,欠发达地区的政府必须高度重视提高治理质量。这样,才有可能吸引外国直接投资,增加家庭消费,减少贫困,这也是 2030 年可持续发展目标(SDGs)的主要目的。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of ISDS arbitration claims and adjudication on cross-border direct investment 国际投资争端解决机制仲裁申请和裁决对跨境直接投资的影响
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200053
Julan Du , Yifei Zhang

This study investigates the impact of the arbitration cases under the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) scheme on cross-border direct investment in the form of merger and acquisition deals. The initiation of ISDS claims has significant and negative effects on direct investment from the claimant home country to the developing or weak-institution responding country. Indirect expropriation claims often have stronger effects than direct expropriation claims. The investor-win arbitration cases produce a significant substantiation effect by reducing merger flows, while the state-win cases produce an acquittal effect that encourages the subsequent capital inflow to the respondent state. Both effects are more striking in weak-institution or less developed target countries. We also detect some spillover effects of ISDS arbitration.

本研究调查了投资者与国家争端解决机制(ISDS)下的仲裁案件对并购交易形式的跨境直接投资的影响。提起投资者与国家争端解决机制索赔对索赔母国对发展中国家或机构薄弱的应诉国的直接投资有显著的负面影响。间接征用索赔的影响往往大于直接征用索赔。投资者胜诉的仲裁案件通过减少兼并流量产生了显著的证实效应,而国家胜诉的案件则产生了无罪开释效应,鼓励资本随后流入应诉国。这两种效应在体制薄弱或欠发达的目标国都更为明显。我们还发现了 ISDS 仲裁的一些溢出效应。
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引用次数: 0
Does Moroccan Diaspora play a role in the location of Moroccan FDI? An empirical investigation on outward FDI into 46 host countries 散居国外的摩洛哥人在摩洛哥外国直接投资的选址中起作用吗?对 46 个东道国外向外国直接投资的经验调查
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200054
Jihad Ait Soussane, Amine Chentouf, Zahra Mansouri

The paper investigates the impact of the Moroccan diaspora in host countries on attracting foreign direct investment from Moroccan Multinational Enterprises. Utilizing cross-sectional data encompassing outward FDI to 46 countries hosting Moroccan migrants, the Robust Weighted Least Squares estimation method reveals a positive association between the size of the Moroccan diaspora and outward FDI. These results affirm the central hypothesis, highlighting the significant role of social networks, such as diaspora, in fostering connectivity between the MNE and its subsidiaries, mitigating foreignness liabilities and psychic distance. Moreover, the study unveils a nuanced perspective: technological capabilities and institutional quality act as negative moderators, shaping a multifaceted relationship. These findings enrich our comprehension of diaspora-driven FDI dynamics, providing fresh insights into the moderating influences of technological capabilities and institutional quality in the realm of outward FDI from Morocco.

本文研究了东道国的摩洛哥侨民对吸引摩洛哥跨国企业外国直接投资的影响。利用包含 46 个摩洛哥移民接收国对外直接投资的横截面数据,稳健加权最小二乘法估计方法揭示了摩洛哥侨民规模与对外直接投资之间的正相关关系。这些结果证实了中心假设,强调了社会网络(如侨民)在促进跨国企业与其子公司之间的联系、减轻异国责任和心理距离方面的重要作用。此外,研究还揭示了一个微妙的视角:技术能力和制度质量起到了负面调节作用,塑造了一种多方面的关系。这些发现丰富了我们对散居国外者驱动的外国直接投资动态的理解,为摩洛哥对外直接投资领域的技术能力和制度质量的调节作用提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Repackaging FDI for inclusive growth: Nullifying effects and policy-relevant thresholds of governance 重新包装净外国直接投资以促进包容性增长:无效效应和与政策相关的治理阈值
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200056
Isaac K. Ofori , Simplice A. Asongu

This study examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) to SSA contributes to inclusive growth in the region. The study further investigates whether SSA's institutional fabric moderates the effect of FDI on inclusive growth in SSA. To this end, we draw data on 42 SSA countries for the period 1996–2020 for the analysis. The empirical evidence, which is based on the GMM estimator, shows that: (1) FDI impedes inclusive growth in SSA, and (2) the region's weak institutional fabric amplifies the shared growth-deteriorating effect of FDI. Nonetheless, the optimism, which we provide by way of threshold analysis, shows that efforts aimed at improving regulatory efficiency enhance inclusive growth from the short-term through to the long-term. The study concludes that robust structures for regulatory efficiency and corruption control are critical for moderating FDI to promote inclusive growth in SSA. A few policy recommendations are discussed in the end.

本研究探讨了对撒南非洲的外国直接投资(FDI)是否有助于该地区的包容性增长。本研究还进一步探讨了撒南非洲的制度结构是否会调节外国直接投资对撒南非洲包容性增长的影响。为此,我们利用 1996-2020 年间 42 个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的数据进行分析。基于 GMM 估计法的经验证据表明(1) 外国直接投资阻碍了撒南非洲的包容性增长,(2) 该地区薄弱的制度结构放大了外国直接投资对共同增长的负面影响。尽管如此,我们通过阈值分析得出的乐观结论表明,旨在提高监管效率的努力从短期到长期都能促进包容性增长。本研究的结论是,健全的监管效率和腐败控制结构对于调节外国直接投资以促进撒哈拉以南非洲地区的包容性增长至关重要。最后还讨论了一些政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
The role of institutional quality on the impact of Chinese foreign direct investments and human capital development on macroeconomic performance in the CEMAC zone 制度质量对中国外商直接投资和人力资本发展对中非经货共同体地区宏观经济绩效影响的作用
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200052
Jean-Claude Kouladoum

This paper investigates the role of institutional quality in terms of governance on the impact of Chinese foreign direct investments and human capital development on the macroeconomic performance of the CEMAC zone between 2003 and 2020. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and the Correlated Panels Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) Approach. The findings indicated that poor governance performance in the CEMAC zone deteriorates the effects of Chinese foreign direct investments and human capital development on the macroeconomic performance of the CEMAC zone. At the same time, poor governance performance also deteriorates the impact of foreign aid and personal remittances received on the macroeconomic performance of the CEMAC zone. This study strongly recommends measures to improve institutional quality such as increased training on ethical thinking in all forms of education, meritocratic recruitment to the civil service, and auditing of public finances and services.

本文研究了 2003 年至 2020 年间中国外商直接投资和人力资本发展对中非经货共同体地区宏观经济表现的影响,并探讨了治理方面的制度质量所起的作用。数据分析采用了描述性统计和相关面板校正标准误差法(PCSEs)。研究结果表明,中非经货共同体地区治理不善会恶化中国外商直接投资和人力资本发展对中非经货共同体地区宏观经济表现的影响。同时,治理不善也会降低外国援助和个人汇款对中非经货共同体地区宏观经济表现的影响。本研究强烈建议采取措施提高机构质量,如在各种形式的教育中加强道德思想培训、以任人唯贤的方式招聘公务员以及对公共财政和服务进行审计。
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引用次数: 0
The role of FDI augmented with governance and human capital on structural transformation: Experiences from SSA and EAP countries 以治理和人力资本为支撑的外国直接投资对结构转型的作用:撒南非洲和东非及太平洋地区国家的经验
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200055
Solomon Kebede , Zerihun Getachew , Berihanu Kuma , Tora Abebe

In the last few decades, the majority of least-developed countries have failed to achieve the structural transformation theme. The concern of achieving structural transformation is further aggravated by the lack of technology, low level of literacy, poor institutional qualities, and low development level of the manufacturing sub-sector in these countries. To examine the role of FDI augmented with governance and human capital on structural transformation, the study used panel data for four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) and three East Asian and Pacific (EAP) countries across 31 years. The auto-regressive Distributed Lag with Pooled Mean Group technique was employed for analysis after checking the possible assumptions. The model for the full panels suggests that FDI inflows, especially when supplemented with good governance and better literacy, promote structural transformation. Moreover, across regions, in the short run, the interactive effect of FDI with governance and literacy had a positive effect for EAP and a negative effect for SSA countries. Finally, the government of the least developed countries that endeavors to achieve structural transformation should focus on improving the quality of governance and literacy rate and then engage in attracting massive inflows of FDI, among others.

在过去几十年中,大多数最不发达国家都未能实现结构转型这一主题。这些国家缺乏技术、文化水平低、机构素质差、制造业分部门发展水平低,进一步加剧了实现结构转型的担忧。为了研究外国直接投资与治理和人力资本相结合对结构转型的作用,本研究使用了四个撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家和三个东亚及太平洋(EAP)国家 31 年的面板数据。在检查了可能的假设之后,采用了具有集合均值组的自回归分布滞后技术进行分析。整个面板的模型表明,外国直接投资的流入,尤其是在辅以良好治理和提高识字率的情况下,会促进结构转型。此外,就各地区而言,在短期内,外国直接投资与治理和识字率的互动效应对东亚和太平洋地区国家产生了积极影响,对撒哈拉以南非洲国家产生了消极影响。最后,努力实现结构转型的最不发达国家政府应重点提高治理质量和识字率,然后吸引大量外国直接投资流入等。
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引用次数: 0
Profit shifting to tax havens: Withholding tax impact on passive flows from Poland 利润向避税地转移:预提税对波兰被动资金流动的影响
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200059
Milena Sitkiewicz , Anna Białek-Jaworska

This paper aims to identify determinants and channels of tax avoidance through passive flows to tax havens using harmful tax competition, considering the effect of changes in withholding tax regulations. For the empirical analysis, we exploit the data of 110 ​907 nonresidents from 134 countries that gain passive flows paid by Polish taxpayers. We utilise data from IFT-2R returns on withholding tax (WHT) for 2012–2019. We use a two-stage Arellano-Bond estimator of the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) with instrumental variables for dynamic panel data and the difference-in-differences method. We show that the amendment to the withholding tax legislation, preceded by a no-avoidance clause in 2017, reduced passive flows overall and separately from the manufacturing and service sectors, primarily profit-shifting through interest, royalties and intangible services payments. Moreover, our results confirm that the tax system tightening against aggressive tax competition has reduced passive income transfers from service companies, not manufacturing companies. Instead, the latter make higher transfers to tax havens included in both Polish and the E.U. list of countries applying harmful tax competition.

本文旨在考虑预扣税法规变化的影响,利用有害的税收竞争,确定通过被动流向避税地进行避税的决定因素和渠道。在实证分析中,我们利用了来自 134 个国家的 110 907 名非居民的数据,这些数据获得了波兰纳税人支付的被动资金流。我们利用的数据来自 2012-2019 年预扣税(WHT)的 IFT-2R 报表。我们使用带工具变量的动态面板数据广义矩法 (GMM) 的两阶段 Arellano-Bond 估计器和差分法。我们的研究表明,预扣税立法修正案(在 2017 年之前有一个无避税条款)减少了制造业和服务业的被动流动,主要是通过利息、特许权使用费和无形服务支付进行的利润转移。此外,我们的研究结果证实,针对激进税收竞争的税制收紧减少了来自服务公司的被动收入转移,而不是来自制造业公司的被动收入转移。相反,后者向波兰和欧盟实施有害税收竞争的国家名单中的避税地转移了更多的收入。
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引用次数: 0
Reverse knowledge transfer and internationalization strategy: Cases from Japanese MNCs in Indonesia 反向知识转移与国际化战略:日本跨国公司在印度尼西亚的案例
IF 3.5 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tncr.2024.200049
Rangga Almahendra, Reni Rosari

With the continuing trend for a firm to acquire knowledge from different locations, many multinational firms realize the urgency of tapping knowledge from their subsidiaries worldwide. The study of reverse knowledge transfer plays an essential role in gaining a global competitive advantage. Based on a case study and comparative analysis of research from two Japanese MNCs in Indonesia, we observe a unique mechanism of reverse knowledge transfer in highly centralized societies. We identify that the pattern of reverse knowledge transfer from subsidiaries to headquarters is evolving along the different phases of the internationalization process. Our study concludes that several variables influence different reverse knowledge transfer mechanisms at different internationalization stages. Those variables are product localization, degree of autonomy, external embeddedness, and knowledge specificity.

随着公司从不同地点获取知识的趋势不断发展,许多跨国公司意识到从其全球子公司获取知识的紧迫性。反向知识转移研究在获得全球竞争优势方面发挥着至关重要的作用。通过对印度尼西亚两家日本跨国公司的案例研究和比较分析,我们发现了高度集中社会中独特的反向知识转移机制。我们发现,从子公司到总部的逆向知识转移模式在国际化进程的不同阶段不断演变。我们的研究得出结论,在不同的国际化阶段,有几个变量影响着不同的逆向知识转移机制。这些变量包括产品本地化、自主程度、外部嵌入性和知识特殊性。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Transnational Corporations Review
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