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Performances of selected European economies in achieving their inflation targets: The non-stationary discrete choice model approach 选定的欧洲经济体在实现其通胀目标方面的表现:非平稳离散选择模型方法
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00012
Milutin Ješić, Zorica Mladenović, Miomir Jakšić
Measurement of the performances of inflation targeting (IT) frameworks has been of interest to researchers ever since IT began to be implemented as a monetary policy strategy. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of domestic and international determinants on success in achieving inflation targets of the selected European economies. Our methodological framework is based on the application of a non-stationary discrete choice model. For this research, four European economies are considered: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Serbia. Their results regarding IT policy can provide a useful benchmark for similar economies that are either planning to adopt the same monetary policy framework or have begun to apply it recently. Our findings indicate that IT success is primarily under the control of monetary policymakers by key policy rate mechanism, but that the impact of additional domestic and international factors that are not easily managed by the central bank like budget balance, exchange rate, growth rate, current account balance, labor cost growth, loans, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, inflation, and GDP gap of the Eurozone, can be also significant. Consequently, monetary policymakers need to take into account a wide range of inflation factors, including foreign spillover effects, so that tools for their neutralization can be helpful in achieving the targeted goals.
自通货膨胀目标制(IT)框架作为一种货币政策策略开始实施以来,对其绩效的衡量一直是研究人员感兴趣的问题。本文的目的是评估国内和国际决定因素对成功实现选定的欧洲经济体通胀目标的影响。我们的方法框架是基于非平稳离散选择模型的应用。这项研究考虑了四个欧洲经济体:捷克共和国、匈牙利、波兰和塞尔维亚。他们在信息技术政策方面的研究结果可以为正在计划采用相同货币政策框架或最近开始应用该框架的类似经济体提供有用的基准。我们的研究结果表明,IT成功主要受货币政策制定者通过关键政策利率机制的控制,但预算平衡、汇率、增长率、经常账户余额、劳动力成本增长、贷款、消费者物价协调指数、通货膨胀和欧元区GDP差距等央行不易管理的其他国内外因素的影响也很显著。因此,货币政策制定者需要考虑广泛的通货膨胀因素,包括外国溢出效应,以便消除这些因素的工具有助于实现目标。
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引用次数: 0
Spatiality in freight transport efficiency 货运效率的空间性
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00019
Adrienn Boldizsár, F. Mészáros, T. Sipos
The relationship between economic growth and transport sector is an important and popular topic for researchers, but it also has several untapped areas. To ensure continuous economic growth, it is necessary to answer how and to what extent economic sectors contribute to sustainability; what factors or sets of factors can determine freight performance in a country or region; and how it affects the global economy. This study aims to test the presence of spatial dependence. In this research, the authors looked for the spatial relationships between economic activity (GDP) and freight transport performance using spatial econometric models. The results showed that the spatial impact of freight transport performance and GDP significantly influence each other. The intensity calculation shows that the Baltic States have a high intensity in road freight transport, followed by the Central European region. Eastern Europe, including Russia and the Baltics, are prominent players in rail freight. Furthermore, the spatial econometric models have highlighted that a country with high GDP has some sort of "suction" effect on neighbouring countries with lower GDP along with the freight performance. This is especially true for rail freight. In the long run, the outlined results may even support strategic decision-makers in managing the economic impacts of both road and rail freight transport at the regional level.
经济增长和运输部门之间的关系是研究人员的一个重要和热门话题,但它也有几个尚未开发的领域。为了确保经济持续增长,有必要回答经济部门如何以及在多大程度上促进可持续性;哪些因素或一组因素可以决定一个国家或地区的货运表现;以及它如何影响全球经济。本研究旨在检验空间依赖性的存在。在这项研究中,作者使用空间计量模型寻找经济活动(GDP)和货运绩效之间的空间关系。结果表明,货运绩效的空间影响与GDP之间存在显著的相互影响。强度计算表明,波罗的海国家的公路货运强度较高,其次是中欧地区。包括俄罗斯和波罗的海国家在内的东欧是铁路货运的重要参与者。此外,空间计量经济模型强调,一个GDP较高的国家对GDP较低的邻国以及货运表现都有某种“吸力”效应。铁路货运尤其如此。从长远来看,概述的结果甚至可能支持战略决策者在区域层面管理公路和铁路货运的经济影响。
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引用次数: 1
Determinants of domestic value added in exports of the EU countries 欧盟国家出口中国内增加值的决定因素
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00017
Z. Kittová, D. Steinhauser, Kristína Drieniková
Economies, including the European Union, face the risk of losing ability to maintain their competitive positions on the global scale and of related inability to generate value added up to satisfactory degree. We therefore examine factors assumedly having positive impact on the domestic value added in exports, as a recently introduced key indicator of country's export competitiveness, reported in the TiVA database. The main aim of our paper is to test, for the selected countries, the relationships of the domestic value added in exports with the following factors: (1) number of patent applications per million inhabitants, (2) foreign direct investment per capita, (3) business expenditure on research and development as a percentage of GDP and (4) resource productivity as control variable. We prove by panel data analysis that the domestic value added in exports increases with an increase in all deployed independent variables as well as in control variable.
包括欧洲联盟在内的经济体面临着失去在全球范围内保持竞争地位的能力的风险,以及相关的无法产生令人满意的增值的风险。因此,我们研究了对国内出口增加值可能产生积极影响的因素,这是最近引入的一个衡量国家出口竞争力的关键指标,已在TiVA数据库中报告。本文的主要目的是检验选定国家的国内出口增加值与以下因素的关系:(1)每百万居民的专利申请数量,(2)人均外国直接投资,(3)企业研发支出占GDP的百分比,(4)资源生产率作为控制变量。我们通过面板数据分析证明,出口的国内增加值随着所有部署的自变量和控制变量的增加而增加。
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引用次数: 0
A simple estimation of the longevity gap and redistribution in the pension system 对养老金制度中寿命差距和再分配的简单估计
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00016
A. Simonovits, M. Lackó
It has been known for decades that in a given year and in a given country, with the rise in lifetime income, life expectancy also rises. The difference between the richest and the poorest stratas' life expectancies is called the longevity gap. Recently, as the gap has generally been growing, it has received more and more attention. The issue is important in itself, but it has also an obvious impact on redistribution in the pension system: the greater the longevity gap, the greater is the redistribution from the low benefit pensioners to the high benefit ones in a given pension system. Econometrically estimating the life expectancy-income function may help the analysis. In our short study, first we give a simple estimation, and then we show the influence of the estimate on the redistribution.
几十年来,人们都知道,在某一年,在某个国家,随着终身收入的增加,预期寿命也会增加。最富有和最贫穷阶层的预期寿命之间的差异被称为寿命差距。近年来,随着这一差距的普遍扩大,它受到了越来越多的关注。这个问题本身很重要,但它也对养老金制度的再分配产生了明显的影响:寿命差距越大,在特定的养老金制度中,从低福利养老金领取者向高福利养老金领取人的再分配就越大。经济计量学估计预期寿命收入函数可能有助于分析。在我们的简短研究中,首先我们给出了一个简单的估计,然后我们展示了估计对再分配的影响。
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引用次数: 1
The role of pension funds in capital market development in the new EU member states: An empirical panel cointegration approach 欧盟新成员国养老基金在资本市场发展中的作用:一个实证面板协整方法
4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00015
Jordan Kjosevski, Mihail Petkovski, Aleksandar Stojkov
Abstract The main goal of this paper is to analyse the impact of pension funds on capital market development in 11 new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe using annual data for the period between 2000 and 2019. Given the geographical, institutional, political and economic differences across these countries, we split them into three homogenous groups: Balkan, Baltic and Visegrad countries. We use three different variables as a proxy for capital markets growth: stock market capitalization, the value of stock traded, and private bond market capitalization. We apply dynamic and fully-modified ordinary least squares to examine the relationship between the variables. The empirical results indicate that pension funds have a positive effect on the bond markets growth in all sub-groups but they do not impact the stock market growth in the Balkan and Baltic countries.
本文的主要目的是利用2000年至2019年期间的年度数据,分析养老基金对11个中欧和东欧新欧盟成员国资本市场发展的影响。考虑到这些国家在地理、制度、政治和经济方面的差异,我们将它们分为三个同质组:巴尔干、波罗的海和维谢格拉德国家。我们使用三个不同的变量作为资本市场增长的代理:股票市值、股票交易价值和私人债券市值。我们用动态的和完全修正的普通最小二乘来检验变量之间的关系。实证结果表明,养老基金对巴尔干和波罗的海国家的债券市场增长有积极影响,但对股票市场增长没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
The redistributive effect of the Hungarian flat tax and family allowance system 匈牙利单一税和家庭津贴制度的再分配效应
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-29 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00011
J. Krekó, Hanna Erős, Bori Greskovics, Áron Hajnal, Á. Scharle
The study examines the income redistribution effects of the Hungarian flat-tax and the recently introduced family allowance scheme. They were done on the basis of people's individual data for 2007, 2011 and 2020, which yields more accurate estimates than the previous studies based on aggregate or survey data. Between 2011 and 2013, progressive taxation was abolished, and a flat income tax was introduced, along with a substantial widening of pre-existing family tax allowances. We find that the tax reform has favoured high-income earners and taxpayers with children, while the main losers were low-income and/or childless workers. While the share of family tax allowances is somewhat lower for the high-income deciles, this effect is in practice negligible, therefore the income tax system can still be considered flat. The family tax allowance scheme favours wealthy families with many children over low-income families with fewer or no children. The biggest winners of the scheme are the taxpayers in the top income decile with three or more children: these 22,000 taxpayers (that is, 2% of all recipients) receive 10% of the total amount of the family tax allowance, and almost a third of the credit allocated to families with three or more children.
该研究考察了匈牙利单一税和最近推出的家庭津贴计划对收入再分配的影响。他们是在2007年、2011年和2020年的个人数据基础上完成的,这比以前基于汇总或调查数据的研究得出的估计更准确。在2011年至2013年期间,累进税被废除,单一所得税被引入,同时大幅扩大了已有的家庭税收免税额。我们发现,税收改革有利于高收入者和有孩子的纳税人,而主要的输家是低收入和/或没有孩子的工人。虽然高收入十分之一的家庭税收减免份额略低,但这种影响实际上可以忽略不计,因此所得税制度仍然可以被认为是持平的。家庭税收补贴计划有利于有很多孩子的富裕家庭,而不是孩子少或没有孩子的低收入家庭。该计划的最大赢家是拥有三个或更多孩子的收入最高的10%的纳税人:这22,000名纳税人(即所有受益人的2%)获得了家庭税收免税额总额的10%,以及分配给三个或更多孩子的家庭的近三分之一的信贷。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary and fiscal policies in the EU. Is there a difference between EMU and non-EMU members? 欧盟的货币和财政政策。动车组成员和非动车组成员之间有区别吗?
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00006
Danijela Pantović, Aleksandra Fedajev, Isidora Milošević
The COVID-19 crisis has put the European Union's (EU) ability to respond to external challenges to test. It is not a new issue that has arisen due to the current crisis. The global economic crisis of 2008, and, in particular, the sovereign debt crisis of 2010, highlighted the need for institutional, policy and political reform to ensure the stability and long-term sustainability of the EU project. The EU's asymmetric degrees of integration, in terms of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and non-EMU members, resulted in a diverse response to the crisis and, more importantly, mixed-effects from monetary and fiscal policies. This study aims to research the impact of monetary and fiscal policies between 2007 and 2015 on economic growth and employment. The findings show that loose monetary policies at the EU, EMU and non-EMU levels boosted economic growth and development. On the other hand, restrictive fiscal policy had favourably influenced GDP and employment by reducing inflationary pressures produced by expansive monetary policy. However, fiscal policy had a greater impact in the non-EMU countries, demonstrating that this policy can act as a stabilizing force in the face of an overly expansive and common monetary policy. In order to respond effectively to the current and future crises, the EU government should overhaul the way monetary and fiscal policy is conducted and coordinated.
新冠肺炎危机考验了欧盟应对外部挑战的能力。这不是由于当前危机而出现的新问题。2008年的全球经济危机,特别是2010年的主权债务危机,突出表明需要进行体制、政策和政治改革,以确保欧盟项目的稳定性和长期可持续性。就经济和货币联盟(EMU)和非EMU成员国而言,欧盟的一体化程度不对称,导致了对危机的不同反应,更重要的是,货币和财政政策的混合影响。本研究旨在研究2007年至2015年间货币和财政政策对经济增长和就业的影响。研究结果表明,欧盟、欧洲货币联盟和非欧洲货币联盟层面的宽松货币政策促进了经济增长和发展。另一方面,限制性财政政策通过减少扩张性货币政策产生的通货膨胀压力,对国内生产总值和就业产生了有利影响。然而,财政政策在非欧洲货币联盟国家产生了更大的影响,表明这一政策可以在过度扩张和共同的货币政策面前发挥稳定力量。为了有效应对当前和未来的危机,欧盟政府应该彻底改革货币和财政政策的实施和协调方式。
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引用次数: 0
The lonely giant: An overview of the momentous oeuvre of János Kornai 孤独的巨人:János Kornai重要作品概览
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00002
L. Csaba
Far the most acknowledged and influential author in the economics of Eastern Europe has been János Kornai, the theorist of economic systems and a prolific writer on a variety of subjects in the seventy years of his academic career. His output appeared in more than a dozen of languages. He was criticized and appreciated, especially on the occasion of his 90th birthday, commemorated by – yet another – Festschrift, special issues of academic journals, later followed up by countless obituaries paying the due tribute to someone who has never made to the Nobel Prize, but whose influence definitely exceeded that of many recipients. In this essay we avoid the usual chronological description and highlight certain major themes and try to establish his place in the history of global economic thought. We are aware of our constraints, since it would perhaps take a monograph rather than an article to serve justice to this exceptional academic output of his.
迄今为止,东欧经济学中最受认可和最具影响力的作家是János Kornai,他是经济系统理论家,在其70年的学术生涯中,他是一位多产的作家。他的作品出现在十几种语言中。他受到了批评和赞赏,尤其是在他90岁生日之际,学术期刊特刊《Festschrift》纪念了他,随后又发布了无数讣告,向一位从未获得过诺贝尔奖的人致敬,但他的影响力肯定超过了许多获奖者。在这篇文章中,我们避免了通常的时间描述,强调了某些主要主题,并试图确立他在全球经济思想史上的地位。我们意识到我们的局限性,因为也许需要一本专著而不是一篇文章来公正地对待他的这一杰出学术成果。
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引用次数: 2
Analysis of the inflationary redistribution of consumption and wealth, evidence from Hungary 消费和财富再分配的通货膨胀分析,来自匈牙利的证据
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00008
Zoltán Sipiczki, Anett Parádi Dolgos, J. Varga
Fluctuating prices can cause unintended redistribution of income and wealth, which may be particularly painful to lower income households. Our study examines the indirect effects of this redistribution in an empirical way: it focuses on the capital market distortions of inflation and the disparities in wealth and income. Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures average inflation. However, households feel different inflation rates because their expenditure patterns are different from the ‘average’ patterns. We used the Kruskal – Wallis H test to determine if there are statistically significant differences between low- and high-income households. We calculated alternative inflation rates based on income deciles' different consumption basket. The study finds that households with low income often feel higher inflation than in the actual price indices published by the statistical offices. As our research shows, individuals in different wealth deciles perceive significantly different inflation. Our results also provide important information for economic policymakers, because if social groups perceive different inflation, it modifies the expected behaviour of the population, thereby weakening the economic policy effectiveness of different decisions.
价格波动可能会导致收入和财富的意外再分配,这对低收入家庭来说可能特别痛苦。我们的研究以实证的方式考察了这种再分配的间接影响:它关注的是通货膨胀对资本市场的扭曲以及财富和收入的差异。消费者价格指数衡量的是平均通货膨胀率。然而,家庭感受到的通货膨胀率不同,因为他们的支出模式与“平均”模式不同。我们使用Kruskal–Wallis H检验来确定低收入和高收入家庭之间是否存在统计学上的显著差异。我们根据收入十分位数的不同消费篮子计算了替代通胀率。研究发现,低收入家庭的通货膨胀率往往高于统计局公布的实际价格指数。正如我们的研究所表明的,处于不同财富十分位数的个人感知到的通货膨胀显著不同。我们的研究结果也为经济决策者提供了重要信息,因为如果社会群体感知到不同的通货膨胀,就会改变人口的预期行为,从而削弱不同决策的经济政策有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Testing the Lee-Carter model on Hungarian mortality data 在匈牙利死亡率数据上检验李-卡特模型
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00010
Gábor Petneházi, J. Gáll
This article tests the popular Lee-Carter model's performance for Hungarian mortality rate forecasting. Hungary passed through a mortality crisis which makes the task particularly difficult. Previous forecasts and model choices are validated, and updated forecasts are produced. We find that the behaviour of mortality rates is normalizing, and so the basic Lee-Carter model is becoming applicable.
本文对流行的Lee-Carter模型在匈牙利死亡率预测中的表现进行了检验。匈牙利经历了一场死亡率危机,这使得这项任务特别困难。验证先前的预测和模型选择,并生成更新的预测。我们发现死亡率的行为正在正常化,因此基本的李-卡特模型正变得适用。
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引用次数: 0
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