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Deep dive into beggar-thy-neighbour effects of monetary policy spillovers 深入探究货币政策溢出效应的以邻为壑效应
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00005
Emil Adámek, Lukáš Jursa
We analyse the effect of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary shock spillover and its impact on the European Union's 9 countries outside the euro area (EA) between 2000 and 2020. We use the sign-restricted Bayesian VAR model and subsequent interpretation by plotting the impulse-response functions. Moreover, we investigate both conventional and unconventional monetary policies and its international transmission. The spillover of monetary policy is growing with the openness of economies and the ongoing deepening of integration. The output responds to the EA's monetary shock flexibly and persistently, but there is considerable heterogeneity across countries. We claim that it is essential for central banks outside the EA to monitor and incorporate the ECB's monetary policy spillover into decision-making processes. In particular, the international transmission of the unconventional monetary policy has a fundamental effect on the development of the price level, thus achieving price stability. In the case of implementing a counter-cyclical policy, it is also necessary to monitor conventional policy. However, there is no need to fight the spillover effect since there is no beggar-thy-neighbour problem, i.e., spillover effect works in the same direction in both domestic and foreign country.
我们分析了2000年至2020年间欧洲央行(ECB)货币冲击溢出的影响及其对欧盟9个欧元区以外国家的影响。我们使用符号限制贝叶斯VAR模型,并通过绘制脉冲响应函数进行后续解释。此外,我们还研究了常规和非常规货币政策及其国际传导。随着经济体的开放和一体化的不断深化,货币政策的溢出效应越来越大。产出对EA货币冲击的反应灵活而持久,但各国之间存在相当大的异质性。我们声称,EA之外的央行必须监测欧洲央行的货币政策溢出并将其纳入决策过程。特别是非常规货币政策的国际传导对价格水平的发展具有根本性影响,从而实现价格稳定。在实施反周期政策的情况下,也有必要监测常规政策。然而,没有必要对抗溢出效应,因为不存在以邻为壑的问题,即溢出效应在国内外都朝着同一方向发展。
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引用次数: 0
Towards a set of indices for relational economy on the example of Hungary 建立一套以匈牙利为例的关系经济指标
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00007
Bálint Madlovics, B. Magyar
While informal relations between economic and political actors are prevalent in post-communist economies, proper tools for their quantitative measurement are lacking. This paper is a starting point for thinking about this issue. Relying on previous research (Magyar – Madlovics 2020), we elaborate the concept of ‘relational economy,’ and discuss the problem of measuring its peculiar phenomena by existing direct and indirect data. Towards a set of indices for relational economy, we consider the use of proxies in three ways: (1) a radar chart composed of specific company data; (2) ‘moments of truth’ when property movements reveal an actor's de facto ownership status; and (3) ‘moments of truth’ when adoption to or exclusion from the informal patronal network is accompanied by a significant change in financial situation. Illustrations to each of the three methods are provided from the case of Hungary after 2010.
虽然经济和政治行为体之间的非正式关系在后共产主义经济中普遍存在,但缺乏适当的量化衡量工具。本文是思考这一问题的一个起点。根据之前的研究(Magyar - Madlovics 2020),我们阐述了“关系经济”的概念,并讨论了通过现有的直接和间接数据来衡量其特殊现象的问题。对于关系经济的一组指标,我们考虑以三种方式使用代理:(1)由特定公司数据组成的雷达图;(2)“关键时刻”,即财产变动揭示了演员的实际所有权地位;(3)“关键时刻”,即被收养或被排除在非正式恩人网络之外,同时伴随着财务状况的重大变化。本文从2010年后匈牙利的案例中对这三种方法进行了说明。
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引用次数: 1
Taxation and economic growth: A historical and agnostic review 税收与经济增长:历史与不可知论综述
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00003
V. Tanzi, Hüseyin Şen, Ayşe Kaya
This article provides an agnostic, historical review of taxation and economic growth. It critically evaluates how the relationship between the two has evolved throughout modern history. After an introduction that provides a general overview of the relationship between taxation and growth, the article first discusses the positive role of taxes in promoting economic development in the pre-war and post-war periods of the 1940s. It then critically comments on Solow's neoclassical growth theory and explains the experience of stagflation faced by many advanced countries in the 1970s and its implications for tax theory. New growth theories that attribute an important role in economic growth to government policy in general and tax policy in particular are then discussed. This is followed by a rounded five-point assessment of the impact of taxes on growth. The article ends with a general conclusion.
本文对税收和经济增长进行了不可知论的历史回顾。它批判性地评估了两者之间的关系是如何在整个现代历史中演变的。在介绍了税收与增长之间的关系的总体概述之后,文章首先讨论了税收在20世纪40年代战前和战后时期促进经济发展的积极作用。然后,它对索洛的新古典增长理论进行了批判性评论,并解释了许多发达国家在20世纪70年代面临的滞胀经历及其对税收理论的影响。新的增长理论将经济增长中的重要作用归因于一般的政府政策,特别是税收政策。接下来是对税收对经济增长影响的五分评估。这篇文章以一个概括性的结论结束。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative capitalism in central and Eastern Europe – A test of similarity to Western Europe 中欧和东欧的资本主义比较——与西欧相似的检验
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00004
M. Próchniak, R. Rapacki, Adam Czerniak, Juliusz Gardawski, Bożena Horbaczewska, A. Karbowski, P. Maszczyk, Rafał Towalski
We aimed to enrich the empirical picture and to better understand the nature of post-communist capitalism in the new EU member states in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE11). Our main research goal is to assess the degree of similarity of the institutional architectures in these countries toward each of the four models of capitalism in Western Europe distinguished by Bruno Amable (2003), represented in our research by one Western European country being the most typical empirical approximation of a particular ‘ideal-typical’ model. The study is based on the application of a new method designed for the purpose of our research, the coefficients of similarity. Our empirical exercise shows that the CEE11 countries exhibited on average the greatest relative similarity to the Mediterranean model of capitalism, represented by Spain and Italy. At the same time, they also displayed a considerable institutional proximity to the Continental model of capitalism, represented by Germany, and – to a lesser extent – to two remaining benchmarks. These findings may be generalized as the prevalence of a polycentric pattern of institutional similarity of the CEE11 economies to the established models of Western European capitalism which makes the emerging post-communist capitalism a distinct research category and adds to its patchwork nature.
我们的目标是丰富经验图景,更好地理解中欧和东欧新欧盟成员国(CEE11)后共产主义资本主义的本质。我们的主要研究目标是评估这些国家的制度架构与布鲁诺·阿马布尔(Bruno Amable, 2003)所区分的西欧资本主义四种模式的相似性程度,在我们的研究中,一个西欧国家代表了一个特定的“理想典型”模式的最典型的经验近似。本研究是基于应用一种为我们的研究目的而设计的新方法——相似系数。我们的实证研究表明,中东欧11国平均表现出与以西班牙和意大利为代表的地中海资本主义模式最大的相对相似性。与此同时,它们也显示出与以德国为代表的欧洲大陆资本主义模式相当接近的制度,并且在较小程度上与其他两个基准相似。这些发现可以概括为中欧11国经济与西欧资本主义已建立的模式具有制度相似性的多中心模式的普遍存在,这使得新兴的后共产主义资本主义成为一个独特的研究类别,并增加了其拼凑性。
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引用次数: 0
Import intensities of final demand components and their implications for economic openness: The case of the Czech Republic 最终需求成分的进口强度及其对经济开放的影响:以捷克共和国为例
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00009
Zdeněk Pikhart, Šárka Pikhartová
The article deals with the estimation of import intensities of exports, final consumption expenditures and gross fixed capital formation. It uses the input-output methodology of computing direct and indirect imports to the final demand components, which compares with regression estimates. Unlike the widely used turnover approach, the results contribute fundamentally to knowledge about the genuine openness of the Czech economy with regard to how much value-added is exported. In 2015, the highest import intensity for exports amounting to 52%, closely followed by 49% for investments. Household consumption worked with 41% import intensity, while general government consumption expenditures showed the lowest import intensity of 16%. Based on our input-output findings, the true openness of the Czech economy can be revealed. While turnover of exports to GDP reached 80% in 2019, the value-added approach showed only a half, i.e., 40% value-added was exported. It implies a contra-intuitive conclusion that even in a relatively small and highly integrated country into the globalized economy, there is a 60% majority of the non-tradeable goods.
本文讨论了出口的进口强度、最终消费支出和固定资本形成总额的估计。它使用投入产出法计算最终需求组成部分的直接和间接进口,并与回归估计进行比较。与广泛使用的营业额方法不同,研究结果从根本上有助于了解捷克经济在出口增值方面的真正开放性。2015年,出口的进口强度最高,达到52%,紧随其后的是投资的49%。家庭消费的进口强度为41%,而一般政府消费支出的进口强度最低,为16%。根据我们的投入产出调查结果,可以揭示捷克经济的真正开放性。虽然2019年出口额占GDP的比例达到80%,但增值法显示只有一半,即40%的增值是出口的。这意味着一个反直觉的结论,即即使在一个相对较小且高度融入全球化经济的国家,也有60%的不可贸易商品。
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引用次数: 1
The interaction of actor-independent and actor-dependent factors in new venture formation: The case of blockchain-enabled entrepreneurial firms 新风险形成中行动者独立因素和行动者依赖因素的互动:以区块链创业公司为例
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-09 DOI: 10.1556/032.2023.00001
V. Semenova, Szabolcs Szilárd Sebrek, Betsabé Pérez Garrido, Andrea Katona, G. Michalkó
The study seeks to explore how blockchain technology enables the creation of new ideas for ventures and to examine the activities of founders and entrepreneurial teams in shaping those ideas. We adopted several theoretical frameworks – external enablers theory, dynamic capabilities (DCs), and dynamic managerial capabilities (DMCs) – to explain the interaction of the actor-independent and actor-dependent factors in the process of new firm formation. We analysed four Hungarian blockchain start-ups that operate across financial services, cryptocurrency trading, crypto asset management, energy, information technology, and identity industries and create high value-added and cross-industrial offerings for Hungarian and foreign markets. Using qualitative study research results, the study develops the model of external enablers, founders' and firm capabilities and new venture creation. We identify three interconnected external enablers – namely, market volatility associated with the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies and the underlying blockchain technology, the properties of blockchain, and the ideology behind the technology – and discuss the role of entrepreneurs' DMCs and sensing and seizing activities in discovering and shaping these enablers into profitable business ideas.
该研究旨在探索区块链技术如何为企业创造新的想法,并考察创始人和创业团队在塑造这些想法方面的活动。我们采用了几个理论框架——外部使能因素理论、动态能力(DC)和动态管理能力(DMC)——来解释新企业形成过程中行动者独立因素和行动者依赖因素的相互作用。我们分析了四家匈牙利区块链初创企业,它们横跨金融服务、加密货币交易、加密资产管理、能源、信息技术和身份识别行业,为匈牙利和外国市场创造高附加值和跨行业产品。利用定性研究的结果,本研究开发了外部推动者、创始人和公司能力以及新风险创造的模型。我们确定了三个相互关联的外部促成因素,即与加密货币和底层区块链技术日益流行相关的市场波动、区块链的特性、,以及技术背后的意识形态——并讨论企业家的DMC以及感知和捕捉活动在发现和塑造这些推动者成为有利可图的商业理念方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Developing a local supply chain network: The case of Magyar Suzuki in Hungary 发展本地供应链网络:以匈牙利的Magyar Suzuki为例
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2022.00034
Kaoru Natsuda, Magdolna Sass, L. Csonka
This study examines the role of Magyar Suzuki in the Hungarian automotive industry. It is the oldest foreign vehicle manufacturer and a symbol of modernisation in the post-communist era in Hungary. Due to EU's local content rule, Magyar Suzuki, in comparison with its counterparts in the region, has established a locally embedded supply chain network. Magyar Suzuki has facilitated process and product upgrading of the local suppliers in Hungary. Nevertheless, functional upgrading is relatively limited due to automotive multinational corporations' recognition of Hungary as a low-cost production location, a low level of R&D operation, and a small domestic market.
本研究考察了Magyar Suzuki在匈牙利汽车工业中的作用。它是匈牙利历史最悠久的外国汽车制造商,也是后共产主义时代现代化的象征。由于欧盟的本地含量规则,与该地区的同行相比,Magyar Suzuki建立了一个本地嵌入式供应链网络。Magyar Suzuki为匈牙利当地供应商的工艺和产品升级提供了便利。尽管如此,由于汽车跨国公司认为匈牙利是一个低成本的生产地、低水平的研发运营和较小的国内市场,因此功能升级相对有限。
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引用次数: 3
The various European capitalism models: Convergence and growth in the 2014–2019 inter-crisis period 各种欧洲资本主义模式:2014-2019年危机期间的融合与增长
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2022.00029
Éva Kuruczleki, András London, A. Pelle, Marcell Zoltán Végh
The Varieties of Capitalism (VoC) literature has recently manifested a dynamic development. Among others, the member states of the European Union (EU) have been studied extensively from this viewpoint, and main capitalism models have been identified. Yet, the global financial and economic crisis and its aftermath in Europe have impacted the member states' economies, typically in asymmetric ways and, in 2020, a highly diverse EU faced the COVID-19 induced economic crisis.Our study investigates the EU member states from a perspective different from the existing research on VoC in Europe: our starting point is the macroeconomic decomposition of GDP. Our findings draw up a categorisation somewhat different from the previous results: while the core of the EU is rather consistent and homogenous, clusters of the periphery do not fully coincide with geography and earlier typisations; there are also single outliers and ‘New tigers of Europe’ emerging. Nevertheless, the core-periphery divide still stands overall.
资本主义文学近年来呈现出蓬勃发展的态势。除此之外,从这一观点对欧盟成员国进行了广泛的研究,并确定了主要的资本主义模式。然而,全球金融和经济危机及其在欧洲的后果对成员国的经济产生了影响,通常是以不对称的方式,2020年,高度多元化的欧盟面临新冠肺炎引发的经济危机。我们的研究从不同于欧洲现有的VoC研究的角度调查欧盟成员国:我们的出发点是GDP的宏观经济分解。我们的发现得出了一个与之前的结果有些不同的分类:虽然欧盟的核心相当一致和同质,但外围的集群与地理和早期的分类并不完全一致;也出现了单一的异常值和“欧洲新老虎”。尽管如此,核心-外围的鸿沟总体上仍然存在。
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引用次数: 1
Do menu costs lead to hysteresis in aggregate output? The experiences of some agent-based simulations 菜单成本会导致总产出滞后吗?一些基于主体的模拟的经验
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2022.00033
Miklós Váry
The transitory shock of the financial crisis of 2008 pushed most economies to permanently lower-level growth paths than those prevalent before the crisis, which can be considered as a manifestation of hysteresis. It is well known that some fixed adjustment costs lead to hysteresis in aggregate output. This paper investigates within an agent-based model, whether the fixed costs of price adjustment (menu costs) lead to the same result. Hysteresis emerges in some simple variants of the model independently of firms being assumed boundedly or perfectly rational, but these model variants fit to the empirical data poorly. The model's empirical performance can be improved by assuming that firms are hit by idiosyncratic productivity shocks, but these shocks eliminate hysteresis generated by menu costs. However, hysteresis survives even in their presence, if it is generated by demand-supply interactions, i.e., positive feedbacks from the output gap to potential output. Our conclusion is that if one would like menu costs to serve as an at least as relevant explanation for the hysteretic dynamics of aggregate output as demand-supply interactions, one has to find an alternative assumption to replace idiosyncratic productivity shocks as a mechanism to assure good empirical fit for the model.
2008年金融危机的短暂冲击将大多数经济体永久地推到了比危机前普遍存在的低水平增长路径上,这可以被认为是滞后性的一种表现。众所周知,某些固定的调整成本会导致总产出的滞后性。本文在一个基于主体的模型中考察了价格调整的固定成本(菜单成本)是否会导致相同的结果。滞后现象出现在模型的一些简单变体中,与假设有界或完全理性的公司无关,但这些模型变体与经验数据的拟合很差。假设企业受到特殊的生产率冲击,可以改善模型的实证表现,但这些冲击消除了菜单成本产生的滞后性。然而,如果迟滞是由供需相互作用产生的,即从产出缺口到潜在产出的正反馈,那么即使在它们存在的情况下,迟滞仍然存在。我们的结论是,如果人们希望菜单成本至少能作为对总产出滞后性动态的相关解释,就像需求-供给相互作用一样,人们必须找到一个替代假设,以取代特殊的生产率冲击,作为一种机制,以确保模型具有良好的经验拟合性。
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引用次数: 0
Digitalisation-induced performance improvement: Don't take it for granted! 数字化带来的性能提升:不要想当然!
IF 0.8 4区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-12 DOI: 10.1556/032.2022.00031
A. Szalavetz
In a context of rapid technological change, digital manufacturing technologies bear the promise of enabling significant improvement in operational efficiency. However, evidence indicates that investing in smart digital solutions, per se, does not guarantee performance improvement. Smart factory projects may be derailed, failing to realise the expected operational benefits. This study addresses the gap between academic propositions regarding the unequivocally positive impact of digitalisation and the actual evidence.It draws on data obtained from 18 interviews with technology providers, managers and front-line workers at 12 Hungarian manufacturing companies. We use the concepts of resource complementarity, task–technology misfit, and technology acceptance as a theoretical lens to categorise the seemingly idiosyncratic and context-specific operational problems.We find that digital technology implementation produces inferior-to-expectations outcomes unless companies invest in and upgrade their complementary intangible resources. Four distinct, albeit strongly interrelated types of complementarities are identified: managerial, organisational, skill-related and technical complementarities. Managerial capabilities to adjust the organisational structure, improve workflows and develop a strategy to address technical problems are found to be paramount to eliminate task-technology misfit and enhance technology acceptance.
在技术快速变化的背景下,数字制造技术有望显著提高运营效率。然而,有证据表明,投资智能数字解决方案本身并不能保证性能的提高。智能工厂项目可能会脱轨,无法实现预期的运营效益。这项研究解决了关于数字化的明确积极影响的学术主张与实际证据之间的差距。它利用了对12家匈牙利制造公司的技术供应商、经理和一线工人进行的18次采访中获得的数据。我们使用资源互补性、任务-技术不匹配和技术接受的概念作为理论视角,对看似特殊和特定背景的操作问题进行分类。我们发现,除非公司投资并升级其互补的无形资源,否则数字技术的实施会产生低于预期的结果。确定了四种不同但相互关联性很强的互补性类型:管理互补性、组织互补性、技能互补性和技术互补性。发现调整组织结构、改进工作流程和制定解决技术问题的战略的管理能力对于消除任务技术不匹配和提高技术接受度至关重要。
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引用次数: 4
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Acta Oeconomica
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