Economic Papers最新文献

Western economies, including Australia, have benefited from several decades of extraordinary Chinese expansion. Yet, in recent years, slowing growth and demographic decline has diminished these gains, while geopolitical developments have further restricted growth-driving commerce. Our purpose is to review key sources of recent contractionary changes within China and to assess their likely consequences for the West. Modelling scenarios emerge that see future economic losses in China and abroad, with the worst affected group being China's own low-skill workers. Long-term losses in the West are smaller but pervasive, with Australia's economic welfare per capita impaired most. Short-term effects depend on China's monetary policy response, with a freeing up of China's exchange rate likely to minimise harm both in China and abroad.

This study aims to analyse the tax efforts of 17 non-special category states of India over the period of 2000–01 to 2020–21. The stochastic estimation of the tax frontier identified per capita income and urbanisation as dominating factors determining tax revenue across Indian states. The implementation of a Goods and Services Tax is estimated to increase tax revenue significantly, whereas the pandemic shock resulted in a deterioration of the tax revenue. In addition, the sampled states have collectively secured a tax effort score of 0.832, ranging from 0.62 (Goa) to 0.92 (Karnataka). The empirics showed that Goa and West Bengal were the laggard states in terms of tax effort. Among the determinants of tax efficiency (effort), the variates ‘outstanding liabilities’ and ‘fiscal devolution from central government’ are found to be adversely affecting, while ‘social expenditure’ is predicted to have a stimulating impact on tax effort.

The relationship between health and happiness is well established. However, disability and the burden of disease can also affect the happiness of the local population. We argue that income inequality can worsen the positive effect of health on happiness levels. Using data from 136 economies from 2005 to 2019, we estimate a dynamic panel model that controls the endogeneity and simultaneity issues, and measure the effect of healthy life expectancy on happiness at varying levels of income inequality. We find evidence that healthy life expectancy is significantly and positively associated with happiness, however, at high levels of income inequality, this effect reduces. We shed new perspectives on the costs of income inequality.

The key purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between inflation and output dynamics in a global macroeconomic framework by utilising time-series data from Pakistan and thirty-two trading partners which account for around 95 per cent of foreign trade of Pakistan, over the period 1979Q2–2016Q4. By featuring the GVAR approach, this paper empirically examined the international linkages to account for cross-country inflationary spillovers. The findings show that both foreign and global variables jointly and significantly matter for the inflation-output relationship in developing economies, in general and, in particular, in the economy of Pakistan. The findings from general impulse response functions (GIRF) reveal that shocks to the US real output, oil prices and food prices are transmitted and settled quickly, and put forward a significant impact on real GDP and inflation in Pakistan and its trading partner economies. Inflation in Pakistan is driven more strongly by the global changes in oil and food prices than GDP. For monetary policy formulation, the central bank should take into account developments in inflation-output dynamics of Pakistan's major trading partners.

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 infections and mobility restriction policies on stock market volatility. We estimate panel data models for seven countries using daily data from February 12, 2020 to April 14, 2021. Our results show that the number of new cases of COVID-19 infections and the introduction of mobility restriction policies plays a crucial role in shaping stock market volatility during the pandemic. We found that new cases of COVID-19 infections and mobility restrictions policies increase stock market jumps rather than increase continuous volatility. We also find that mobility restriction policies lessen the impact of new COVID-19 cases on stock market volatility.

Economists have played a powerful role in shaping modern Australia. Drawing on my experience as an academic economist and an economic policymaker, I outline ten principles to guide economists seeking to maximise their impact. These are to (i) Focus on well-being, not just dollars; (ii) Think comparative advantage; (iii) Ignore sunk costs; (iv) Optimise, subject to constraints; (v) Use the best evidence; (vi) Consider expected value; (vii) Think in magnitudes, not just in signs; (viii) Channel a libertarian; (ix) Remember equity; and (x) Incentives matter.

We calculate efficiency change, technological progress and productivity growth in Australian private health insurance (PHI) funds using Malmquist indices from 2016/2017 to 2021/2022. Starting in January 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and the various policy responses to it brought significant disruption to the PHI industry with restrictions placed on elective surgery, and hence insured hospital days, and the use of extras cover for dental, physiotherapy, optical and other services. Lockdowns also saw PHI funds implement work-from-home arrangements and invest to improve policyholder services; the share of Australians with PHI cover grew counter to trend; global financial markets experienced significant volatility, impacting PHI investment revenue and PHI funds delayed even refunded premiums to offset financial pressures on policyholders. We show that productivity declined during the first 18 months of the pandemic and then grew very strongly. We also find the typical PHI fund is 36.5% more productive at the end of the period than the beginning, with most gains being technological (38.3%), involving a large upward shift in the industry frontier, countering much smaller losses from scale (−0.2%) and pure technical (−1.1%) inefficiency. This suggests that the PHI industry responded well to the disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study aims to empirically validate the theories of missing linkages among major economic sectors (agriculture, industry and service) and jobless growth in the context of Indian economy using the RBI-KLEMS database for the period 1980–2018. The study employs the ARDL framework to identify both short-run and long-run relationships between sectoral employment elasticity and sectoral share of value-added with other covariates (specifically macroeconomic factors). Our empirical findings validate the prevalence of theory of missing linkages and jobless growth. Further, we found that weak linkages exist between agriculture, industry and service sectors. However, industry and services have strong interlinkages, whereas industry and agriculture have weak linkages, which leads to weak linkages between services and agriculture. Additionally, it was observed that macroeconomic factors do not exhibit a short-term relationship with employment elasticities in explaining missing linkages. In fact, macroeconomic factors demonstrate a substantial long-term association. Based on these interlinkages, the study proposes the potential for policies to stimulate growth across sectors. Nonetheless, policies aimed at improving the productivity of the primary sector remain a prominent solution.

Building, home contents and comprehensive car insurance promise protection against loss or damage from fire, flooding, accident and theft. In Australia, young people aged 18–24 are among the groups most likely to forego these insurance products. Yet research on the reasons for this remains limited, as noninsurance among young people is attributed to their dependent or ‘fledgling’ life stage, with minimal income and assets warranting protection. In this article, we argue that noninsurance may have serious consequences for young people, particularly if they have limited savings and cannot count on financial assistance from their families. Drawing upon survey findings, we undertake an in-depth investigation into the role of asset levels, affordability and attitudes in driving young people to forego insurance. Our findings suggest that young people are not especially predisposed to distrust insurers, to consider insurance inessential or to oppose insurance on principle. However, other attitudes—including lesser risk aversion, higher confidence in their capacity to mitigate risks and perceptions of insurance as irrelevant to their circumstances or ‘not for them’—may be more prevalent in this age group, driving them to remain uninsured even when they have assets warranting protection and sufficient income to offset affordability concerns.

This paper examines the long-term causal impact of Abenomics, a comprehensive policy package aiming to revitalise the Japanese economy. Using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM), the study assesses the effects of Abenomics across a variety of economic indicators. The findings reveal mixed impacts, with no evidence of Abenomics reducing budget deficits or boosting exports, but a positive effect on real GDP per capita paired with a reduction in the unemployment rate. The evidence regarding the effect on labor force participation rates is weaker, with primarily statistically insignificant increases observed. These results offer insights into the effectiveness of comprehensive policy interventions and provide lessons for policymakers globally in the midst of a global economic slowdown.