Economic Papers最新文献

We examine the effect of COVID-19-induced lockdown on the profitability of listed firms in India. We use quarterly income statement of 4168 listed firms for the period between April–June 2020 quarter and April–June 2022 quarter and compare their financial data with previous quarters (2015–2019). Using a difference-in-difference estimation framework and various profitability measures, we find that the COVID-19 lockdown has reduced profits by around 15 per cent for listed firms in India. Our results are robust to various robustness tests and alternate specifications. We find evidence of firms losing revenues more than expenses, thus leading to decline in profits. The main effect is conditioned by firm-specific factors. Specifically, firms that are smaller, older, unlisted and that do not belong to any group witnessed larger decline in profitability due to lockdown. Additionally, the effect of lockdown is more pronounced in areas that had lower mobility and higher COVID-19 spread. These results underscore the importance of institutional factors and pre-existing firm characteristics in conditioning the impact of lockdown on firm profitability.

I discuss how electric vehicles (EVs) link transportation externalities to the regulations that govern our electricity markets. Specifically, I contrast the consequences of the incentives faced by joint EV and residential PV adopters under a system of monthly net metering to those under a system of instantaneous metering with feed-in tariffs and behind-the-meter own consumption. I also discuss how, even within Australia, households under new solar PV contracts and early adopters under legacy contracts face very different private costs of operating EVs, which have environmental and congestion implications. I briefly discuss how these incentives interact with the profitability and environmental benefit of household battery systems. Finally, I comment on how these short-term incentives are likely to evolve in the longer run transition to a much cleaner grid and warn about the potential negative distributional impacts of using purchase subsidies to accelerate the adoption of these technologies.

This paper offers a plain model to organise thinking about the disinflation policy. It exploits the insight that monetary and fiscal policy are intertwined. The model links inflationary expectations, monetary policy and fiscal policy, and contemplates a disinflation policy consisting of two plans, not necessarily connected: a monetary plan and a fiscal plan. The central question examined is which type of policy generates a lower policy interest rate – a monetary plan without fiscal cooperation or a monetary plan with fiscal austerity? The economic logic articulated by the model generates the following answer: the equilibrium policy rate set by the central bank can always be brought down by reducing the budget deficit. This qualitatively unambiguous prediction may be dependent on silent omissions, which are briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Australia's Energy Security Board is currently considering whether to pivot the east-coast Australian National Electricity Market from an energy-only market to include some form of capacity remuneration. This discussion is occurring during an unprecedented energy crisis where the wholesale market was suspended following a 275% increase in underlying wholesale energy prices. This article unpacks the root causes of the current energy crisis and how a traditional capacity market would have been ineffective in addressing it. We find that a traditional capacity market may provide windfall gains to wounded bull coal generators and be counterproductive in driving new investment in dispatchable technologies. Our recommendation is that policy-makers should focus on utilising existing regulatory tools and a capacity reserve to insure against the unanticipated failures of ageing coal plants.

Current commitments with net zero 2050 require that more than two billion electric vehicles (EVs) be produced globally by 2035. Australia produces more than 55% of the global lithium in the world. We argue that Australia's most significant contribution to realising net zero 2050 could be to increase lithium production 10-20-fold by 2035. A similar case could equally be made for increasing other critical minerals. This would also contribute to securing Australia's energy and national security. To realise these benefits current investment in lithium is much lower than the production of lithium batteries used in EVs requires, reflecting suboptimal tax rates. We conclude by proposing that a decarbonisation tax discount for critical minerals is needed.

This study examines the effect of global value chains (GVCs) on the association between gross exports and the exchange rate. To do so, we quantify the composition of the GVCs using output-related measures for sixty-one countries from 2007 to 2020. This approach is better than the existing measures in capturing all the linkages of GVCs. Second, we analyse the importance of GVCs on the link between gross exports and the exchange rate using an econometric technique – the generalised method of moments. Our results show that GVC participation disconnects the exchange rate elasticity of exports. The empirical findings are robust and consistent across the sectors and income groups. Therefore, it is vital for policy-makers to consider the implications of GVCs while devising any policy related to exports.

Australia is unusual among developed countries both in lacking fleet-wide vehicle carbon dioxide emission standards and in having a very low takeup of all-electric vehicles. This paper outlines how fleet-wide vehicle carbon dioxide emission standards operate and identifies mechanisms by which their absence might lead to a low takeup of electric vehicles in countries such as Australia. Although hard to verify one of those mechanisms in Australia (higher prices charged for all-electric vehicles), it is easy to verify the unusually low number of models of all-electric models made available for sale. The paper also outlines Australia's slow 15-year journey towards standards, pointing to the possible role of political machinations and political caution in delaying their introduction. It identifies one group of employees with much to lose from a rapid uptake of electric vehicles—motor mechanics.

The purpose of this paper is to compare the distribution of occupation and rates of occupational mobility in the ATO Longitudinal Information Files (ALife) and the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) datasets. As tax is not occupation dependent, occupation data from tax records may not be reliable. We find that occupational mobility in the ALife data is less than half that in the nationally representative HILDA data. In contrast, the distribution of occupation and its relationship with most key socio-economic characteristics appear relatively similar across the two datasets. However, occupation evolves differently over time in the two datasets and there are some differences between the sexes.

The COVID-19 crisis re-shaped many livelihood options and placed significant burdens on those with precarious incomes exacerbating persisting vulnerabilities, especially among a large section of the migrant population. This group faced a dual threat – both to their livelihood and health. To understand the consequences of this pandemic on the income of the migrant population, a household level survey was conducted in the state of Bihar, India, which is one of the highest migrant-sending states. We examine the role of differences in the socio-economic status of migrants and their households in determining the extent of vulnerability caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Vulnerability is proxied by the income lost by migrants during the lockdown. The results suggest that households with diversified income portfolio, larger landholdings, and those receiving government benefits suffered significantly lower income loss whereas, larger household size and greater distance from town tended to escalate income loss. Additionally, private salaried workers faced higher income loss and an increment in years of education lowers the losses significantly. It is observed that individual-level characteristics also played a significant role in determining economic loss due to the lockdown. Our findings suggest a binding necessity to actively shape policies considering the financial insecurity of vulnerable migrants at their destination and the household members at the origin.

To support broader global efforts to improve diversity and inclusion in economics, this paper provides a statistical picture of the gender composition of the economics profession in Australia and the evidence-based initiatives taken by the Women in Economics Network (WEN) to improve women's representation and recognition. WEN's impact is evaluated across a range of metrics. This includes a case study of WEN's mentorship programme for university students that was delivered as a behavioural intervention and evaluated as a randomised control trial. Drawing on practical experiences in combination with research insights, the paper identifies some of the challenges encountered and the lessons that can be shared with similar organisations globally that are pursuing diversity and inclusion goals.