Economic Papers最新文献

This study examines the effect of global value chains (GVCs) on the association between gross exports and the exchange rate. To do so, we quantify the composition of the GVCs using output-related measures for sixty-one countries from 2007 to 2020. This approach is better than the existing measures in capturing all the linkages of GVCs. Second, we analyse the importance of GVCs on the link between gross exports and the exchange rate using an econometric technique – the generalised method of moments. Our results show that GVC participation disconnects the exchange rate elasticity of exports. The empirical findings are robust and consistent across the sectors and income groups. Therefore, it is vital for policy-makers to consider the implications of GVCs while devising any policy related to exports.

Australia is unusual among developed countries both in lacking fleet-wide vehicle carbon dioxide emission standards and in having a very low takeup of all-electric vehicles. This paper outlines how fleet-wide vehicle carbon dioxide emission standards operate and identifies mechanisms by which their absence might lead to a low takeup of electric vehicles in countries such as Australia. Although hard to verify one of those mechanisms in Australia (higher prices charged for all-electric vehicles), it is easy to verify the unusually low number of models of all-electric models made available for sale. The paper also outlines Australia's slow 15-year journey towards standards, pointing to the possible role of political machinations and political caution in delaying their introduction. It identifies one group of employees with much to lose from a rapid uptake of electric vehicles—motor mechanics.

The purpose of this paper is to compare the distribution of occupation and rates of occupational mobility in the ATO Longitudinal Information Files (ALife) and the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) datasets. As tax is not occupation dependent, occupation data from tax records may not be reliable. We find that occupational mobility in the ALife data is less than half that in the nationally representative HILDA data. In contrast, the distribution of occupation and its relationship with most key socio-economic characteristics appear relatively similar across the two datasets. However, occupation evolves differently over time in the two datasets and there are some differences between the sexes.

The COVID-19 crisis re-shaped many livelihood options and placed significant burdens on those with precarious incomes exacerbating persisting vulnerabilities, especially among a large section of the migrant population. This group faced a dual threat – both to their livelihood and health. To understand the consequences of this pandemic on the income of the migrant population, a household level survey was conducted in the state of Bihar, India, which is one of the highest migrant-sending states. We examine the role of differences in the socio-economic status of migrants and their households in determining the extent of vulnerability caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Vulnerability is proxied by the income lost by migrants during the lockdown. The results suggest that households with diversified income portfolio, larger landholdings, and those receiving government benefits suffered significantly lower income loss whereas, larger household size and greater distance from town tended to escalate income loss. Additionally, private salaried workers faced higher income loss and an increment in years of education lowers the losses significantly. It is observed that individual-level characteristics also played a significant role in determining economic loss due to the lockdown. Our findings suggest a binding necessity to actively shape policies considering the financial insecurity of vulnerable migrants at their destination and the household members at the origin.

To support broader global efforts to improve diversity and inclusion in economics, this paper provides a statistical picture of the gender composition of the economics profession in Australia and the evidence-based initiatives taken by the Women in Economics Network (WEN) to improve women's representation and recognition. WEN's impact is evaluated across a range of metrics. This includes a case study of WEN's mentorship programme for university students that was delivered as a behavioural intervention and evaluated as a randomised control trial. Drawing on practical experiences in combination with research insights, the paper identifies some of the challenges encountered and the lessons that can be shared with similar organisations globally that are pursuing diversity and inclusion goals.

The use of motor vehicles in Australia generates external costs. The external costs are associated with government expenditure on road infrastructure, traffic congestion and road accidents as well as pollution. A subsidy for electric vehicles will reduce the pollution external cost, and more so as the share of electricity generated from fossil fuels declines. However, the subsidy-induced increase in motor vehicle use will increase the other external costs. Also, the subsidy and the fall in excise tax revenue collected will add to the budget deficit. The phase-in of electric vehicles provides an opportunity to reform special taxes and charges on the use of motor vehicles. The current ad hoc and long time ago imposed government taxes and charges on motor vehicles should be replaced with explicit taxes to internalise each of the external costs of motor vehicles.

In 2021, China launched a series of reform initiatives including common prosperity, a property tax, a regulatory crackdown on technology firms, a roadmap for peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality and other policies aiming to improve people's lives. This study reviews each of them and finds that they are centred around common prosperity and guiding resource allocation. Based on Google Trends search results, this study creatively created a series of common prosperity policy indices, showing that China in 2021 may have experienced the most important policy shift since at least 2004. Based on EGARCH and ARDL models, this study finds that the whole economy, proxied by two popular composite indices, i.e. the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and the China Securities Index 300, responded positively to the common prosperity policy. Stock market responses also show that China's policies have successfully guided the resource allocation from the soft technology sector to the hard technology one. This study also discusses the broad implications, such as the role of the government and the evolution of private ownership in the Chinese economy.

India has faced the impossible trinity challenge after it opened up its capital account post-1990s reforms. Accordingly, simultaneous achievement of three macroeconomic objectives, namely exchange Rate Stability, capital openness and monetary independence, is an impossible task and any combination of two objectives can be achieved by losing the third one. This attempt, therefore, validates the existence of impossible trinity in India and investigates its impact on the stability of both, economic growth and prices. The sign-restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology has been used to confirm the existence of impossible trinity and to identify the best trilemma policy combination for the Indian economy in order to achieve stable output growth with steady prices. A trinity combination of “capital openness” and “exchange rate stability” is found to be the best in achieving stability of macroeconomic indicators under evaluation. Furthermore, the absence of trinity in India is inferred to ensure macroeconomic stability. However, maintaining its absence for a substantial period is noticed to be a near-impossible task.

Positive externalities of education on health have been widely studied in the prior literature. However, the focus has been on the count of years of schooling rather than the levels of schooling, which is a commonly overlooked yet meaningful way of assessing the education – health relationship. Further, the role of health beliefs in determining the relation between education and health has been understudied, particularly for women. We address these two important questions by using a large-scale household survey data from India. We find that education levels have differential impact on health beliefs and the impact is highest for individuals with higher levels of education. These findings indicate how educational interventions at lower levels can be effective in improving health beliefs to encourage appropriate health behaviour from early stages of life.

During the post-COVID period, demand augmenting policies were needed and have been exercised by the Government of India to prevent the Indian economy from falling into recession. However, these demand augmenting policies seem to be inflationary as in the recent past high inflation has been observed in India. Thus, optimum combination of monetary and fiscal policies is needed to simultaneously achieve the objectives of demand growth and price stability. This paper proposes combinations of the two policies based on the results of a sign-restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling framework. The experimentation was performed using sign restrictions on macroeconomic target variables viz. demand growth and inflation rate while leaving the policy variables free to suggest proposed stances to achieve desired objectives. On the basis of the empirical findings, the proposed stances of monetary and fiscal authorities were then compared with the actual stances and requisite correction in the policy behaviours has been suggested in terms of improvements to the magnitude and frequency of contraction and expansion.