Economic Papers最新文献

Over time, the trade agreements are witnessing a substantial change in their provisions by encompassing provisions beyond their conventional trade domain, such as labour market regulations, environmental regulations and competition policies. Theoretically, studies argued the role of signing an agreement with deep provisions to promote trade in value-added, but empirical verification in favour of a few is rarely available. The present study attempts to identify this set of provisions included in deep trade agreements (DTAs) that positively impact the bilateral trade in value added. Using the traditional gravity model framework and its estimation through modern econometric and machine learning tools, the study shows that incorporating provisions relating to establishing and preserving economic rights in trade agreements promotes trade in value-added among member countries. Notably, the study found the combination of three main policy areas: technical barriers to trade, competition policy and labour market regulations. Both econometric and machine learning methods confirm the significant impact of these three provisions. Understanding the significance of specific provisions holds relevance in the current scenario where major trading economies are calibrating trade agreements. From the policy perspective, disentangling a set of provisions might be relevant for designing and negotiating trade agreements.

This article uses individual-level data collected in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey in 2016 to econometrically explore the direction of causation between financial literacy and self-employment. The empirical approach is based on applying instrumental variables (IV) analysis in a three-outcome labour supply model (i.e. self-employment, employee employment and non-employment) that controls for selection into employment. In keeping with a small number of studies, the analysis suggests that there is a positive relationship between financial literacy and self-employment. The analysis also suggests that the likely causal direction is from financial literacy to self-employment. However, this is also found for employee employment. Therefore, policies aimed at increasing financial literacy will likely not only increase self-employment but also employee employment. This suggests that financial literacy may be a form of “general human capital,” such as education, work experience or training. However, the impact of financial literacy on self-employment is not larger (more positive) for self-employment compared to employee employment. Clearly much more research is needed to understand the numerous relationships between financial literacy and other labour market outcomes.

While a voluminous empirical literature has investigated university efficiency, much less attention has focused on the impact of administrative intensity on university performance. In this article, we seek to contribute to the empirical literature by examining the relationship between operational efficiency and administrative intensity in the Australian higher education sector over the period 2009/10–2018/19 using a second stage bootstrapping Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) fractional regression model. We find that administrative intensity positively affects the performance of universities for both the standard and bias-corrected efficiency models. Moreover, administrative intensity exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with university efficiency. We also find that administrative intensity has a differential impact on the efficiency of the different types of university. Various public policy implications are considered.

This paper investigates the factors affecting the labour allocation decisions of rice-producing households in Bangladesh. A farm-household model has been used to explore the household decision-making mechanism. We use a primary questionnaire survey, and a Generalised Ordered Logit model is used to identify the factors affecting the sample households' likelihood of choosing different labour regimes, assuming hiring-in is the top ordered alternative, followed by self-cultivator and smallholders. Results show that one more year of schooling of the household head increases the likelihood of choosing the hiring-in category against the lower-ordered choices by 25 per cent. Having more cultivated land substantially improves the propensity of a household to hire labour versus selling labour or self-cultivation (odds ratio 11.68). If a household lives a kilometre further from the Upazila headquarter, it is 11 per cent more likely to hire labour than being either a smallholder or self-cultivator, which might be a result of the larger availability of labour in those areas. Additionally, an increase in the number of visits by agricultural extension officers reduces the household's likelihood of hiring labour by almost 21 per cent while making the households more likely to be self-cultivators.

Productivity growth has declined in Australia and other developed countries over the past two decades. It has been argued that reduced dynamism and the failure of competition at an economy-wide level is to blame, leading to calls for broad competition policy reforms. In this paper we consider the theoretical and empirical evidence to support this “failure of competition” narrative. We find that the evidence, at best, is ambiguous. Competition failures in some areas support the need for reform, but the competition landscape across Australia is complex and there is no simple link between indicators of competition, such as concentration levels; indicators of reduced dynamism, such as falling business investment, and falling productivity growth.

The Hilmer Review and National Competition Policy reforms were an important part of the 1990s productivity surge and have been estimated to have delivered a permanent 2.5 per cent lift in GDP. I outline the key elements of these reforms and identify seven lessons for modern competition reformers. In the 2020s, with the startup rate falling and market concentration rising, boosting competition is one way of increasing productivity and improving the dynamism of the Australian economy.

The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked social and economic havoc across the globe. This article addresses an aspect of trust that has not received wide attention in the context of the pandemic: how relational trust can affect compliance behaviour with health campaigns. This article uses a unique dataset of people receiving a COVID test after suspicion of infection. We use regression analysis to study the relation between compliance with mobility restrictions and institutional and relational trust. We find that trusting that close relations will be there for you in the case of falling ill is associated with a significant increase in the probability of complying with health campaigns as is trust that public institutions will respond appropriately to the pandemic. Additionally, we find no statistical relationship between compliance and trust in media outlets nor compliance and trust that community members (neighbours, co-workers or others) will care for you. The findings suggest that enhancing trust may improve compliance with mobility restrictions, however, increasing trust in specific groups may not aid in the effectiveness of some health campaigns. Importantly, nudging people towards compliance could be achieved by emphasising in campaigns that your behaviour could influence the health of those who you care about.

The discipline of economics encompasses broad skillsets with diverse applications in employment markets and industries. Studies of labour market prospects for economics graduates are relatively dated particularly in the light of developments such as declining interest in economics in high school and university. This study examines the labour market outcomes of Australian economics graduates, at the bachelor and postgraduate levels, using a national dataset. We observe strong employment prospects for graduates in economics after graduation, in terms of full-time employment and salaries. Obtaining a postgraduate qualification appears to pay off, with master's and PhD graduates experiencing more favourable employment outcomes than bachelor's graduates. Substantial proportions report being overqualified for their jobs although this proportion is comparable to those reported for the broader Australian graduate labour market. Reassuringly, those initially overqualified transition out and overqualification reduces in the longer term. Most economics graduates become economists, but many others enter a wide array of other occupations. Of those who start out in non-economist professions, there is a 42 per cent chance that they transition to economist roles after 2.5 years. In summary, an economics degree leads to favourable employment and earnings and should still be considered an attractive choice for prospective students.

The industry diversity thesis of economic resilience to economic shocks is embedded in community development policy across Australia. The idea being that in the event of an economic shock some industries will prove more recession-proof than others. The greater the industry diversity, the greater the likelihood of off-setting industry effects, resulting in greater economic resilience. The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restrictions created a unique natural experiment to explore whether the industry diversity thesis holds true under the conditions of a global health pandemic. In this policy paper, we use JobKeeper applications as a proxy for decreased economic resilience. We explore if Australian local government areas (LGAs) with higher industry diversity had less necessity for JobKeeper. We also briefly consider if concentrations of certain industries acted as a better economic buffer to the COVID-19 economic shock. We observe that as diversity increases, economic resilience strengthens except for Victoria (where the association is inverted). This observation has important implications for current and future policy formation and implementation across all layers of government.

Recent research has documented the immediate negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household and business consumption, but there is still limited investigation into the medium-term effects in specific consumption categories. This paper addresses this gap using a vector autoregression analysis of a system of aggregated consumer final demand across Australia. We highlight the importance of studying a demand system, as opposed to investigating independent consumption categories, due to the interactive evolution of consumption during the pandemic. Modelling the paths of various consumption categories in response to shocks from one another, we find that, despite the large and abrupt shocks to consumption during the first two quarters of 2020, most categories reverted to pre-COVID levels when restrictions were lifted. Importantly, transportation had the largest and most persistent decline. Overall, shocks to sectors other than food, alcohol and education were outside the counterfactual forecast confidence intervals estimated based on pre-COVID information.