Pub Date : 2022-01-25DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10048
Alexandria Polk
When are cyber conflicts ripe for negotiation? Analysis of cyber conflict presents a challenge to the prevailing negotiation concept, Zartman’s ripeness theory. Ripeness theory posits that the timing of a negotiation stems from the conflicting parties’ perception of a “mutually hurting stalemate” (MHS) and “a way out” of conflict through dialogue. While this theory has shown merit for negotiations related to conventional warfare or economic disputes, there are gaps in its applicability for resolving cyber conflict. Specifically, the concept of a “hurting stalemate” has little to no presence in cyber disputes, rendering MHS incompatible with pure cyber negotiations. As such, redefining mutually hurting stalemate for cyber conflict is paramount to address this discrepancy. Examining the 2015 bilateral US-China Cybersecurity Agreement provides a context for applying our hypothesis and demonstrates how accepted negotiation theory may be applied to cyber conflict.
{"title":"Ripeness Theory in the Digital Age: When to Log Off from Cyber Conflict","authors":"Alexandria Polk","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10048","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000When are cyber conflicts ripe for negotiation? Analysis of cyber conflict presents a challenge to the prevailing negotiation concept, Zartman’s ripeness theory. Ripeness theory posits that the timing of a negotiation stems from the conflicting parties’ perception of a “mutually hurting stalemate” (MHS) and “a way out” of conflict through dialogue. While this theory has shown merit for negotiations related to conventional warfare or economic disputes, there are gaps in its applicability for resolving cyber conflict. Specifically, the concept of a “hurting stalemate” has little to no presence in cyber disputes, rendering MHS incompatible with pure cyber negotiations. As such, redefining mutually hurting stalemate for cyber conflict is paramount to address this discrepancy. Examining the 2015 bilateral US-China Cybersecurity Agreement provides a context for applying our hypothesis and demonstrates how accepted negotiation theory may be applied to cyber conflict.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45823663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-11DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10049
Isa Lima Mendes
This article discusses the inclusion of Colombian women in the Havana Dialogues with FARC through the theoretical lens of political representation. It chooses representation over the vaguer notion of inclusion to further politicize this debate. Since women’s inclusion is recognized as a major achievement of the process, the article attempts to reframe the discussion by enquiring whether Colombian women were represented in the process, and, if yes, which women and how. It argues that women’s inclusion was possible due to their multilevel articulation and a reluctant and diffuse representative dynamic bringing together female negotiators, the Gender Sub-commission and women’s movements.
{"title":"The Political Representation of Colombian Women in the Havana Dialogues (2012–2016)","authors":"Isa Lima Mendes","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10049","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This article discusses the inclusion of Colombian women in the Havana Dialogues with FARC through the theoretical lens of political representation. It chooses representation over the vaguer notion of inclusion to further politicize this debate. Since women’s inclusion is recognized as a major achievement of the process, the article attempts to reframe the discussion by enquiring whether Colombian women were represented in the process, and, if yes, which women and how. It argues that women’s inclusion was possible due to their multilevel articulation and a reluctant and diffuse representative dynamic bringing together female negotiators, the Gender Sub-commission and women’s movements.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43236630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-11DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10052
Doyoun Park, Yongseok Seo
This study examines the fundamental causes of intractable conflict and deadlocked negotiation by centering on identity. The cognitive variables of identity are derived, and the causal layered analysis framework is used to analyze the influencing mechanism among cognitive layers. This research assumes that conflicts are influenced by interactions among key variables of the identity frame in the cognitive layer: “ingroup definition,” “outgroup definition,” and “conflict narrative.” The United States–North Korea denuclearization negotiation case is examined using this framework, seeking to understand how these factors influenced the conflict, policy initiatives and negotiations.
{"title":"Identity Frame as the Anchor of Interstate Conflicts: The Case of the United States–North Korea Denuclearization Negotiation","authors":"Doyoun Park, Yongseok Seo","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10052","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This study examines the fundamental causes of intractable conflict and deadlocked negotiation by centering on identity. The cognitive variables of identity are derived, and the causal layered analysis framework is used to analyze the influencing mechanism among cognitive layers. This research assumes that conflicts are influenced by interactions among key variables of the identity frame in the cognitive layer: “ingroup definition,” “outgroup definition,” and “conflict narrative.” The United States–North Korea denuclearization negotiation case is examined using this framework, seeking to understand how these factors influenced the conflict, policy initiatives and negotiations.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44347613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-15DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10047
P. Chasek
The year 2020 started much like any other on the United Nations multilateral calendar. But then the COVID-19 pandemic forced the UN and the world to shut down. After the initial shock wore off, secretariats and governments began to contemplate how to conduct multilateral negotiations during a pandemic. As they created new virtual working methods, they also had to figure out how to maintain trust among delegations and in the process itself to ensure the outcomes of these meetings would be respected. To understand how UN meetings adapted to a virtual environment and maintained trust, this article analyzes a sample of 18 meetings of UN environmental and sustainable development bodies that took place in the 12 months between April 2020 and March 2021. The research examines these cases to see how these meetings were conducted, how they built the necessary trust, and what can be learned from this experience.
{"title":"Is It the End of the COP as We Know It? An Analysis of the First Year of Virtual Meetings in the UN Environment and Sustainable Development Arena","authors":"P. Chasek","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10047","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The year 2020 started much like any other on the United Nations multilateral calendar. But then the COVID-19 pandemic forced the UN and the world to shut down. After the initial shock wore off, secretariats and governments began to contemplate how to conduct multilateral negotiations during a pandemic. As they created new virtual working methods, they also had to figure out how to maintain trust among delegations and in the process itself to ensure the outcomes of these meetings would be respected. To understand how UN meetings adapted to a virtual environment and maintained trust, this article analyzes a sample of 18 meetings of UN environmental and sustainable development bodies that took place in the 12 months between April 2020 and March 2021. The research examines these cases to see how these meetings were conducted, how they built the necessary trust, and what can be learned from this experience.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43779202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-15DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10044
Christian Coleman
The cases of peacemaking in Kosovo and Sudan/South Sudan yield insights into the interplay of international politics, relations among political elites, and reconciliation among identity groups. A durable, positive peace requires an approach by peacemakers that encompasses all these dimensions. Complicating matters, the readiness of states to adhere to rules and norms built up over decades has declined in recent years. Absent a concerted effort to (re)build them, the work of peace mediation will become more challenging and the odds of success incalculably longer. This, in turn, will corrode the ability of external powers, competing via proxy, to work together even on unrelated matters in different parts of the globe.
{"title":"Fragmented Societies and a Fragmenting International System: Implications for Peacemaking","authors":"Christian Coleman","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10044","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The cases of peacemaking in Kosovo and Sudan/South Sudan yield insights into the interplay of international politics, relations among political elites, and reconciliation among identity groups. A durable, positive peace requires an approach by peacemakers that encompasses all these dimensions. Complicating matters, the readiness of states to adhere to rules and norms built up over decades has declined in recent years. Absent a concerted effort to (re)build them, the work of peace mediation will become more challenging and the odds of success incalculably longer. This, in turn, will corrode the ability of external powers, competing via proxy, to work together even on unrelated matters in different parts of the globe.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44151164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-15DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10043
J. Mcgarry, Neophytos Loizides
For decades, the UN has failed to mediate a settlement in Cyprus because of a general and profound weakness: it is unable, outside of unity and resolve in the Security Council, to offer direct incentives to parties in conflict that would shape their calculus towards conflict resolution, or to control the actions of third parties in a way that would incentivize conflict resolution or prevent disincentives. In the resulting vacuum, the prospects for peace settlements come to rest largely on domestic politics within the contesting camps and, sometimes relatedly, on the balance of power between them. In the case of Cyprus, the article claims that these weaknesses on the part of the UN were clearly on display during the negotiation process surrounding the Annan Plan (2001–04) and the resumed process that began in 2008 and ended at Crans-Montana in 2017.
{"title":"The UN in 21st Century Cyprus: Meditration, Mediation-Lite and Beyond","authors":"J. Mcgarry, Neophytos Loizides","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10043","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000For decades, the UN has failed to mediate a settlement in Cyprus because of a general and profound weakness: it is unable, outside of unity and resolve in the Security Council, to offer direct incentives to parties in conflict that would shape their calculus towards conflict resolution, or to control the actions of third parties in a way that would incentivize conflict resolution or prevent disincentives. In the resulting vacuum, the prospects for peace settlements come to rest largely on domestic politics within the contesting camps and, sometimes relatedly, on the balance of power between them. In the case of Cyprus, the article claims that these weaknesses on the part of the UN were clearly on display during the negotiation process surrounding the Annan Plan (2001–04) and the resumed process that began in 2008 and ended at Crans-Montana in 2017.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42605546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-15DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10042
Z. Hudáková
Over the past few years, Yemen has become synonymous with mediation failure. This contrasts sharply with the situation in the early 2010s, when the United Nations played a crucial role in persuading Yemen’s long-serving President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to step down from power and, at least initially, successfully steered the country during the ensuing political transition. By analyzing UN mediation efforts during the mandate of Special Adviser Jamal Benomar, the article draws attention to the multiple shifting benchmarks for success. It adopts a phase-differentiated approach to mediation evaluation, which not only allows for recognition of earlier successes, but also enables an analysis of relevant factors influencing mediation success or failure in different stages of the mediation process. In the final instance, the analysis suggests that the eventual failure of UN mediation in Yemen can be traced to conflict and contextual factors rather than the mediator or the mediation process.
在过去几年中，也门已成为调解失败的代名词。这与2010年代初的情况形成鲜明对比，当时联合国在说服也门长期执政的总统阿里·阿卜杜拉·萨利赫(Ali Abdullah Saleh)下台方面发挥了关键作用，至少在最初阶段，联合国成功地在随后的政治过渡中领导了这个国家。通过分析联合国在特别顾问贾马尔·贝诺马尔任期内的调解努力，文章提请注意成功的多重变化基准。它采用分阶段的调解评估方法，不仅可以确认早期的成功，而且可以分析在调解过程的不同阶段影响调解成功或失败的相关因素。最后，分析表明，联合国在也门调解的最终失败可以追溯到冲突和背景因素，而不是调解人或调解过程。
{"title":"Success in the Shadow of Failure: UN Mediation in Yemen (2011–2015)","authors":"Z. Hudáková","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10042","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Over the past few years, Yemen has become synonymous with mediation failure. This contrasts sharply with the situation in the early 2010s, when the United Nations played a crucial role in persuading Yemen’s long-serving President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to step down from power and, at least initially, successfully steered the country during the ensuing political transition. By analyzing UN mediation efforts during the mandate of Special Adviser Jamal Benomar, the article draws attention to the multiple shifting benchmarks for success. It adopts a phase-differentiated approach to mediation evaluation, which not only allows for recognition of earlier successes, but also enables an analysis of relevant factors influencing mediation success or failure in different stages of the mediation process. In the final instance, the analysis suggests that the eventual failure of UN mediation in Yemen can be traced to conflict and contextual factors rather than the mediator or the mediation process.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43925980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-28DOI: 10.1163/15718069-25131259
{"title":"Future Issues of International Negotiation","authors":"","doi":"10.1163/15718069-25131259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-25131259","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47729565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-28DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10046
S. Nibali
After decades of violent separatist conflict between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the region stabilized and peaceful in 2008. Despite this grand proclamation of peace, Chechnya today operates under an environment of violent repression and the conflict remains un-managed. This article argues that a threshold of sufficiency exists which settlement strategies must pass to achieve peace. While a perceived peace may occur when the armed conflict ends, without sufficient management strategies the identity-based roots of the conflict will manifest in other forms beneath the surface. By examining co-optation, power-sharing, autonomy and reconciliation, this research finds that while Russia’s incomplete conflict management strategy may have ended the violent insurgency within Chechnya, the failure to apply these principles sufficiently has allowed violence to continue. This research hopes to be applicable in informing strategies to resolve conflicts in multi-ethnic states within and beyond the North Caucasus.
{"title":"Strategies to End Violence in Ethnic Conflicts: What is Sufficient? The Case of “Peace” in Chechnya","authors":"S. Nibali","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10046","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000After decades of violent separatist conflict between the Russian Federation and the Chechen Republic, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the region stabilized and peaceful in 2008. Despite this grand proclamation of peace, Chechnya today operates under an environment of violent repression and the conflict remains un-managed. This article argues that a threshold of sufficiency exists which settlement strategies must pass to achieve peace. While a perceived peace may occur when the armed conflict ends, without sufficient management strategies the identity-based roots of the conflict will manifest in other forms beneath the surface. By examining co-optation, power-sharing, autonomy and reconciliation, this research finds that while Russia’s incomplete conflict management strategy may have ended the violent insurgency within Chechnya, the failure to apply these principles sufficiently has allowed violence to continue. This research hopes to be applicable in informing strategies to resolve conflicts in multi-ethnic states within and beyond the North Caucasus.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44775623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-28DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10045
I. Zartman
Completed negotiations often end in shortfalls, half glasses, and way stations. Is that enough to claim success and is a half-loaf sometimes sufficient? The nine articles in this thematic issue examine various forms of incomplete negotiations, from a full-worded agreement that is bypassed, through a formal ceasefire, an agreement among only the agreeables, a mediated but non-transforming agreement, a confidence-building agreement, and finally, claimed resolution that drives violence underground. Sufficiency has different meanings in each case, but generally refers to making some progress in handling the conflict, whereas insufficiency refers to not making progress at any level that is lasting.
{"title":"Gray Peace: Is Part of a Peace Sufficient?","authors":"I. Zartman","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10045","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Completed negotiations often end in shortfalls, half glasses, and way stations. Is that enough to claim success and is a half-loaf sometimes sufficient? The nine articles in this thematic issue examine various forms of incomplete negotiations, from a full-worded agreement that is bypassed, through a formal ceasefire, an agreement among only the agreeables, a mediated but non-transforming agreement, a confidence-building agreement, and finally, claimed resolution that drives violence underground. Sufficiency has different meanings in each case, but generally refers to making some progress in handling the conflict, whereas insufficiency refers to not making progress at any level that is lasting.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2021-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42112422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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