Pub Date : 2020-08-17DOI: 10.1163/15718069-25131253
A. Schiff
This study explores the relevance of readiness theory’s analytical framework in illuminating the fundamentals that contribute to the de-escalation process in international crises. By applying this analytical framework to the U.S.-North Korea crisis management episode of 2017–2018, this study elucidates the interplay of elements that led to the winding down of the intense crisis and to the parties’ agreement to formally embark on negotiations at the end of the Singapore Summit in June 2018. The study shows how the multiple variables underlying the movements in conflict transformation, as outlined by readiness theory, can help to explain the effect of bilateral strategies applied by the U.S. and North Korea and the role of third-party involvement by South Korea and China in managing the crisis.
{"title":"Preventing Another Korean War: A Case Study of Crisis Management from the Perspective of Readiness Theory","authors":"A. Schiff","doi":"10.1163/15718069-25131253","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-25131253","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This study explores the relevance of readiness theory’s analytical framework in illuminating the fundamentals that contribute to the de-escalation process in international crises. By applying this analytical framework to the U.S.-North Korea crisis management episode of 2017–2018, this study elucidates the interplay of elements that led to the winding down of the intense crisis and to the parties’ agreement to formally embark on negotiations at the end of the Singapore Summit in June 2018. The study shows how the multiple variables underlying the movements in conflict transformation, as outlined by readiness theory, can help to explain the effect of bilateral strategies applied by the U.S. and North Korea and the role of third-party involvement by South Korea and China in managing the crisis.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"26 1","pages":"184-217"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41628002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-17DOI: 10.1163/15718069-25131248
A. Engvall, Isak Svensson
Peace Talks and Valid Spokespersons : Explaining the Onset of Negotiations in Southern Thailand
和谈与有效发言人：解读泰国南部谈判的开端
{"title":"Peace Talks and Valid Spokespersons: Explaining the Onset of Negotiations in Southern Thailand","authors":"A. Engvall, Isak Svensson","doi":"10.1163/15718069-25131248","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-25131248","url":null,"abstract":"Peace Talks and Valid Spokespersons : Explaining the Onset of Negotiations in Southern Thailand","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"25 1","pages":"495-518"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1163/15718069-25131248","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43813810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-23DOI: 10.1163/15718069-BJA10001
Levke Aduda
What impact have different mediation outcomes had on subsequent mediation onset and success in the conflict between the government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)? Intrastate conflicts commonly see more than one mediation effort. These efforts can result in different outcomes. Assessing the impact of different mediation outcomes on subsequent mediation efforts in the conflict between the governments of Uganda and the LRA, it becomes apparent that reneged agreements have aggravated subsequent mediation efforts, while mediation ending without an agreement and previous mediation success do not reduce the chances of subsequent mediation onset (and success). This suggests that short-lived agreements are not only likely to lead to renewed conflict, but also make further mediation efforts more difficult.
{"title":"The Sequence of Mediation Efforts in the Conflict between the Government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army","authors":"Levke Aduda","doi":"10.1163/15718069-BJA10001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-BJA10001","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000What impact have different mediation outcomes had on subsequent mediation onset and success in the conflict between the government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA)? Intrastate conflicts commonly see more than one mediation effort. These efforts can result in different outcomes. Assessing the impact of different mediation outcomes on subsequent mediation efforts in the conflict between the governments of Uganda and the LRA, it becomes apparent that reneged agreements have aggravated subsequent mediation efforts, while mediation ending without an agreement and previous mediation success do not reduce the chances of subsequent mediation onset (and success). This suggests that short-lived agreements are not only likely to lead to renewed conflict, but also make further mediation efforts more difficult.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"26 1","pages":"245-268"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43385474","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-23DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10002
M. S. Kovacs
Why are armed conflicts involving warring parties with an Islamist agenda more difficult to resolve through negotiations? In previous research, two main explanations have been put forward; one that highlight the religious element of the parties’ conflict issue and one that emphasis the organizational character of these conflicts, in particular their transnational nature. Yet we still do not know which of these explanations that carry the most explanatory power. The purpose of this article is to test the empirical relevance of these theories through an in-depth study of five negotiation attempts between the government of Nigeria and the group known as Boko Haram during the time period 2011 to 2016. By doing so, this article both addresses one of the key theoretical debates in the scholarly field of religious conflicts and conflict resolution, and presents novel empirical material on a case not well covered in previous negotiation literature.
{"title":"A Matter of Faith? Negotiations with Boko Haram in Nigeria","authors":"M. S. Kovacs","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Why are armed conflicts involving warring parties with an Islamist agenda more difficult to resolve through negotiations? In previous research, two main explanations have been put forward; one that highlight the religious element of the parties’ conflict issue and one that emphasis the organizational character of these conflicts, in particular their transnational nature. Yet we still do not know which of these explanations that carry the most explanatory power. The purpose of this article is to test the empirical relevance of these theories through an in-depth study of five negotiation attempts between the government of Nigeria and the group known as Boko Haram during the time period 2011 to 2016. By doing so, this article both addresses one of the key theoretical debates in the scholarly field of religious conflicts and conflict resolution, and presents novel empirical material on a case not well covered in previous negotiation literature.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"25 1","pages":"435-462"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45425075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-23DOI: 10.1163/15718069-BJA10004
Lesley G. Terris, Noya Lishner-Levy, O. Tykocinski
Negotiations aimed at resolving international disputes often end in deadlock. In the current article, we focus on deadlocks triggered by missed opportunities. The consequences of missing an advantageous opportunity have been studied extensively in the field of psychology within the context of the inaction inertia effect. The concept was recently introduced into the negotiation literature. Forgoing an attractive action opportunity creates vulnerability to regret and increases the likelihood of forgoing subsequent inferior opportunities, even if they still have positive value. The current article deepens the applicability of inaction inertia to international negotiations, by adopting a new multi-step multi-issue paradigm, which better approximates real-life negotiations. Using the new platform, we demonstrate the inaction inertia effect in a dynamic negotiation setting and link an individual’s inertia mindset to the experience of regret. The methodology and analysis presented will help researchers and practitioners explain inertia-induced deadlocks, and facilitate interventions that expedite successful resolutions.
{"title":"Negotiation Inaction Inertia: A Dynamic Model of the Impact of Missed Opportunities on Negotiation Decisions in Multi-issue Disputes","authors":"Lesley G. Terris, Noya Lishner-Levy, O. Tykocinski","doi":"10.1163/15718069-BJA10004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-BJA10004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Negotiations aimed at resolving international disputes often end in deadlock. In the current article, we focus on deadlocks triggered by missed opportunities. The consequences of missing an advantageous opportunity have been studied extensively in the field of psychology within the context of the inaction inertia effect. The concept was recently introduced into the negotiation literature. Forgoing an attractive action opportunity creates vulnerability to regret and increases the likelihood of forgoing subsequent inferior opportunities, even if they still have positive value. The current article deepens the applicability of inaction inertia to international negotiations, by adopting a new multi-step multi-issue paradigm, which better approximates real-life negotiations. Using the new platform, we demonstrate the inaction inertia effect in a dynamic negotiation setting and link an individual’s inertia mindset to the experience of regret. The methodology and analysis presented will help researchers and practitioners explain inertia-induced deadlocks, and facilitate interventions that expedite successful resolutions.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47396095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-20DOI: 10.1163/15718069-25131249
I. E. Matesan
This article revisits ripeness theory and examines whether conflicts with armed Islamist groups can also be ripe for negotiation. The article argues that armed Islamist organizations can be willing to negotiate and demobilize, but talks are particularly vulnerable to spoilers and public backlash. To examine these dynamics, the article investigates the case of al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya in Egypt. Relying on a variety of primary and secondary sources, including organizational documents and testimonies by the leaders, the analysis shows that the absence of ripeness can indeed explain some of the failures of negotiations. However, when the conflict was finally ripe, talks broke down because of elite divisions and public backlash. The case reveals that there is a dark side to ripeness: the conditions that lead to a mutually hurting stalemate can also lead to public outrage, elite divisions, and opposition to negotiations.
本文回顾了成熟度理论，并探讨了与伊斯兰武装组织的冲突是否也可以成熟到可以进行谈判。这篇文章认为，伊斯兰武装组织可能愿意进行谈判和解散，但谈判特别容易受到破坏和公众反弹的影响。为了研究这些动态，本文调查了埃及的al-Gama 'a al-Islamiyya的案例。根据各种第一手和第二手资料，包括组织文件和领导人的证词，分析表明，缺乏成熟度确实可以解释一些谈判失败的原因。然而，当冲突最终成熟时，由于精英阶层的分歧和公众的强烈反对，谈判破裂了。这个案例揭示了成熟也有黑暗的一面:导致相互伤害的僵局的条件也可能导致公众的愤怒、精英的分歧和对谈判的反对。
{"title":"Failed Negotiations and the Dark Side of Ripeness: Insights from Egypt","authors":"I. E. Matesan","doi":"10.1163/15718069-25131249","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-25131249","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This article revisits ripeness theory and examines whether conflicts with armed Islamist groups can also be ripe for negotiation. The article argues that armed Islamist organizations can be willing to negotiate and demobilize, but talks are particularly vulnerable to spoilers and public backlash. To examine these dynamics, the article investigates the case of al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya in Egypt. Relying on a variety of primary and secondary sources, including organizational documents and testimonies by the leaders, the analysis shows that the absence of ripeness can indeed explain some of the failures of negotiations. However, when the conflict was finally ripe, talks broke down because of elite divisions and public backlash. The case reveals that there is a dark side to ripeness: the conditions that lead to a mutually hurting stalemate can also lead to public outrage, elite divisions, and opposition to negotiations.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"25 1","pages":"463-494"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1163/15718069-25131249","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47783274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-16DOI: 10.1163/15718069-bja10016
M. S. Kovacs
Under what conditions can Islamist armed conflicts be resolved through peace negotiations? Armed conflicts involving Islamist groups have emerged as one of the most pressing challenges on the global agenda for peace and security. But the track record of conflict resolution in these settings is not encouraging. While armed conflicts have generally decreased in the post-Cold War period, as many prolonged civil wars were resolved through negotiated settlements, this has not been true to the same extent for this sub-category of conflicts. Yet, we know surprisingly little about why this is the case. The purpose of this thematic issue is to address this gap. Each contributor tackles a different angle of the overarching research problem.
{"title":"Negotiating Sacred Grounds? Resolving Islamist Armed Conflicts","authors":"M. S. Kovacs","doi":"10.1163/15718069-bja10016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-bja10016","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Under what conditions can Islamist armed conflicts be resolved through peace negotiations? Armed conflicts involving Islamist groups have emerged as one of the most pressing challenges on the global agenda for peace and security. But the track record of conflict resolution in these settings is not encouraging. While armed conflicts have generally decreased in the post-Cold War period, as many prolonged civil wars were resolved through negotiated settlements, this has not been true to the same extent for this sub-category of conflicts. Yet, we know surprisingly little about why this is the case. The purpose of this thematic issue is to address this gap. Each contributor tackles a different angle of the overarching research problem.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1163/15718069-bja10016","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41374301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-10DOI: 10.1163/15718069-25131250
Desirée Nilsson, Isak Svensson
The prevalence of Islamist armed conflicts is an important problem of our time. One pivotal question that remains unexplored is whether conflicts fought over Islamist claims are more or less likely to be negotiated, and if so, why? This paper provides the first large-N study exploring the relationship between Islamist claims and negotiations in all intrastate armed conflicts for the time period 1975–2011. We argue that the transnational dimension can serve to make some Islamist conflicts resistant to peaceful resolution attempts. Our findings show that while conflicts over Islamist claims generally are no more likely to see negotiations, there is significant variation within this category. When we disaggregate Islamist conflicts, we find that transnational Islamist conflicts are less likely to experience negotiations, whereas conflicts fought over separatist or revolutionary Islamist claims are no more likely to see negotiations.
{"title":"Resisting Resolution: Islamist Claims and Negotiations in Intrastate Armed Conflicts","authors":"Desirée Nilsson, Isak Svensson","doi":"10.1163/15718069-25131250","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-25131250","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The prevalence of Islamist armed conflicts is an important problem of our time. One pivotal question that remains unexplored is whether conflicts fought over Islamist claims are more or less likely to be negotiated, and if so, why? This paper provides the first large-N study exploring the relationship between Islamist claims and negotiations in all intrastate armed conflicts for the time period 1975–2011. We argue that the transnational dimension can serve to make some Islamist conflicts resistant to peaceful resolution attempts. Our findings show that while conflicts over Islamist claims generally are no more likely to see negotiations, there is significant variation within this category. When we disaggregate Islamist conflicts, we find that transnational Islamist conflicts are less likely to experience negotiations, whereas conflicts fought over separatist or revolutionary Islamist claims are no more likely to see negotiations.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"25 1","pages":"389-412"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1163/15718069-25131250","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41459884","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-07-10DOI: 10.1163/15718069-25131251
M. K. Sheikh
Is religion the main reason why negotiations with Islamists fail? Contemporary international relations literature views compromise over religious claims as being particularly difficult compared to other types of claims. Religious conflicts are understood as unique phenomena. Do religious factors explain why successful conflict resolution attempts with Islamists are more difficult to achieve than with other insurgent groups who pursue non-religious claims? This article examines the case of the Pakistani Taliban and the types of demands they have made during peace talks and in their communications. The role of religion is examined in this article and, specifically, theories of scarce resources, indivisibility and securitization are analyzed to explain the difficulties of negotiating with Islamists.
{"title":"What Do Islamists Bring to the Negotiation Table? Religion and the Case of the Pakistani Taliban","authors":"M. K. Sheikh","doi":"10.1163/15718069-25131251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-25131251","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Is religion the main reason why negotiations with Islamists fail? Contemporary international relations literature views compromise over religious claims as being particularly difficult compared to other types of claims. Religious conflicts are understood as unique phenomena. Do religious factors explain why successful conflict resolution attempts with Islamists are more difficult to achieve than with other insurgent groups who pursue non-religious claims? This article examines the case of the Pakistani Taliban and the types of demands they have made during peace talks and in their communications. The role of religion is examined in this article and, specifically, theories of scarce resources, indivisibility and securitization are analyzed to explain the difficulties of negotiating with Islamists.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"25 1","pages":"413-434"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1163/15718069-25131251","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47200918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-05-28DOI: 10.1163/15718069-25131245
H. Ip
This article situates the topic of weak-party negotiators in the context of early China. It examines the Mohists, activists known for their efforts to confront aggressive warfare in the Warring States period (476–221 BC), when various regional states competed fiercely with one another in China’s inter-state system. By examining the foundational text of Mohism, the Mozi, I show how the Mohists pioneered techniques and tactics regarded as beneficial for weak-party negotiators by modern day experts on negotiation and conflict resolution. More importantly, I emphasize that with their long and deep historical engagement with an ancient Chinese elite driven by self-interests, the Mohists pursued power and were consequential by developing their own approach to asymmetrical negotiation in war-related contexts. This approach was heavily dependent on the Mohists’ use of positive and negative leverage. And it is, according to the Mozi, made possible by the activists’ relentless pursuit of knowledge.
{"title":"Weak-Party Negotiators of Ancient China: The Mohists, Offensive Warfare, and Power","authors":"H. Ip","doi":"10.1163/15718069-25131245","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-25131245","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000This article situates the topic of weak-party negotiators in the context of early China. It examines the Mohists, activists known for their efforts to confront aggressive warfare in the Warring States period (476–221 BC), when various regional states competed fiercely with one another in China’s inter-state system. By examining the foundational text of Mohism, the Mozi, I show how the Mohists pioneered techniques and tactics regarded as beneficial for weak-party negotiators by modern day experts on negotiation and conflict resolution. More importantly, I emphasize that with their long and deep historical engagement with an ancient Chinese elite driven by self-interests, the Mohists pursued power and were consequential by developing their own approach to asymmetrical negotiation in war-related contexts. This approach was heavily dependent on the Mohists’ use of positive and negative leverage. And it is, according to the Mozi, made possible by the activists’ relentless pursuit of knowledge.","PeriodicalId":45224,"journal":{"name":"International Negotiation-A Journal of Theory and Practice","volume":"25 1","pages":"298-328"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5,"publicationDate":"2020-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1163/15718069-25131245","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46911089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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