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Interpretable Predictive Models for Healthcare via Rational Multi-Layer Perceptrons 通过合理的多层感知器建立可解释的医疗预测模型
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1145/3671150
Thiti Suttaket, Stanley Kok
The healthcare sector has recently experienced an unprecedented surge in digital data accumulation, especially in the form of electronic health records (EHRs). These records constitute a precious resource that Information Systems (IS) researchers could utilize for various clinical applications, such as morbidity prediction and risk stratification. Recently, deep learning has demonstrated state-of-the-art empirical results in terms of predictive performance on EHRs. However, the blackbox nature of deep learning models prevents both clinicians and patients from trusting the models, especially with regards to life-critical decision making. To mitigate this, attention mechanisms are normally employed to improve the transparency of deep learning models. However, these mechanisms can only highlight important inputs without sufficient clarity on how they correlate with each other and still confuse end-users. To address this drawback, we pioneer a novel model called Rational Multi-Layer Perceptrons (RMLP) that is constructed from weighted finite state automata. RMLP is able to provide better interpretability by coherently linking together relevant inputs at different timesteps into distinct sequences. RMLP can be shown to be a generalization of a multi-layer perceptron (that only works on static data) to sequential, dynamic data. With its theoretical roots in rational series, RMLP’s ability to process longitudinal time-series data and extract interpretable patterns sets it apart. Using real-world EHRs, we have substantiated the effectiveness of our RMLP model through empirical comparisons on six clinical tasks, all of which demonstrate its considerable efficacy.
最近,医疗保健领域的数字数据积累出现了前所未有的激增,尤其是以电子健康记录(EHR)的形式出现。这些记录是信息系统(IS)研究人员可用于各种临床应用(如发病率预测和风险分层)的宝贵资源。最近,深度学习在 EHR 的预测性能方面取得了最先进的实证结果。然而,深度学习模型的黑箱性质妨碍了临床医生和患者对模型的信任,尤其是在做出生命攸关的决策时。为了缓解这一问题,通常会采用关注机制来提高深度学习模型的透明度。然而,这些机制只能突出重要的输入,而不能充分明确它们之间的相互关系,仍然会让最终用户感到困惑。为了解决这一缺陷,我们开创了一种名为 "理性多层感知器"(RMLP)的新型模型,该模型由加权有限状态自动机构建而成。RMLP 能够将不同时间步的相关输入连贯地连接成不同的序列,从而提供更好的可解释性。可以证明,RMLP 是多层感知器(只适用于静态数据)对连续动态数据的一种概括。RMLP 的理论基础是有理数列,它能够处理纵向时间序列数据并提取可解释的模式,这使其与众不同。我们利用现实世界中的电子病历,通过对六项临床任务的实证比较,证实了 RMLP 模型的有效性,所有这些都证明了它的巨大功效。
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引用次数: 0
Mining Multimorbidity Trajectories and Co-Medication Effects from Patient Data to Predict Post–Hip Fracture Outcomes 从患者数据中挖掘多发病轨迹和联合用药效应,预测髋部骨折后的预后
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.1145/3665250
Jessica Qiuhua Sheng, Da Xu, Paul Jen-Hwa Hu, Liang Li, Ting-Shuo Huang
Hip fractures have profound impacts on patients’ conditions and quality of life, even when they receive therapeutic treatments. Many patients face the risk of poor prognosis, physical impairment, and even mortality, especially older patients. Accurate patient outcome estimates after an initial fracture are critical to physicians’ decision-making and patient management. Effective predictions might benefit from analyses of patients’ multimorbidity trajectories and medication usages. If adequately modeled and analyzed, they could help identify patients at higher risk of recurrent fractures or mortality. Most analytics methods overlook the onset, co-occurrence, and temporal sequence of distinct chronic diseases in the trajectory, and they also seldom consider the combined effects of different medications. To support effective predictions, we develop a novel deep learning–based method that uses a cross-attention mechanism to model patient progression by obtaining “contextual information” from multimorbidity trajectories. This method also incorporates a nested self-attention network that captures the combined effects of distinct medications by learning the interactions among medications and how dosages might influence post-fracture outcomes. A real-world patient data set is used to evaluate the proposed method, relative to six benchmark methods. The comparative results indicate that our method consistently outperforms all the benchmarks in precision, recall, F-measures, and area under the curve. The proposed method is generalizable and can be implemented as a decision support system to identify patients at greater risk of recurrent hip fractures or mortality, which should help clinical decision-making and patient management.
髋部骨折对患者的病情和生活质量有着深远的影响,即使他们接受了治疗。许多患者面临预后不良、身体受损甚至死亡的风险,尤其是老年患者。在初次骨折后,对患者预后的准确估计对医生的决策和患者管理至关重要。有效的预测可能得益于对患者的多病轨迹和用药情况的分析。如果对其进行充分建模和分析,将有助于识别复发性骨折或死亡风险较高的患者。大多数分析方法都忽略了不同慢性疾病在轨迹中的发病、并发和时间顺序,也很少考虑不同药物的综合作用。为了支持有效预测,我们开发了一种基于深度学习的新方法,该方法采用交叉关注机制,通过从多病症轨迹中获取 "上下文信息 "来模拟患者的病情发展。这种方法还结合了嵌套自我注意网络,通过学习药物之间的相互作用以及剂量如何影响骨折后的预后,来捕捉不同药物的综合效果。我们利用真实世界的患者数据集对所提出的方法与六种基准方法进行了评估。比较结果表明,我们的方法在精确度、召回率、F 值和曲线下面积方面始终优于所有基准方法。所提出的方法具有通用性,可作为决策支持系统来识别髋部骨折复发或死亡风险较高的患者,这将有助于临床决策和患者管理。
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引用次数: 0
ShennongMGS: An LLM-based Chinese Medication Guidance System 神农MGS:基于LLM的中医用药指导系统
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1145/3658451
Yutao Dou, Yuwei Huang, Xiongjun Zhao, Haitao Zou, Jiandong Shang, Ying Lu, Xiaolin Yang, Jian Xiao, Shaoliang Peng
The rapidly evolving field of Large Language Models (LLMs) holds immense promise for healthcare, particularly in medication guidance and adverse drug reaction prediction. Despite their potential, existing LLMs face challenges in dealing with complex polypharmacy scenarios and often grapple with data lag issues. To address these limitations, we introduce an LLM-based Chinese medication guidance system, called ShennongMGS, specifically tailored for robust medication guidance and adverse drug reaction predictions. Our system transforms multi-source heterogeneous medication information into a knowledge graph and employs a two-stage training strategy to construct a specialised LLM (ShennongGPT). This method enables the simulation of professional pharmacists’ decision-making processes and incorporates the capability for knowledge self-updating, thereby significantly enhancing drug safety and the overall quality of medical services. Rigorously evaluated by medical professionals and artificial intelligence experts, our method demonstrates superiority, outperforming existing general and specialised LLMs in performance.
快速发展的大语言模型(LLMs)领域为医疗保健带来了巨大的前景,尤其是在用药指导和药物不良反应预测方面。尽管潜力巨大,但现有的大型语言模型在处理复杂的多药方情况时仍面临挑战,而且经常会遇到数据滞后的问题。为了解决这些局限性,我们介绍了一种基于 LLM 的中文用药指导系统,名为神农 MGS,专门为稳健的用药指导和药物不良反应预测而量身定制。我们的系统将多源异构用药信息转化为知识图谱,并采用两阶段训练策略构建专门的 LLM(ShennongGPT)。这种方法可以模拟专业药剂师的决策过程,并具有知识自我更新的能力,从而显著提高药品安全和医疗服务的整体质量。经过医学专家和人工智能专家的严格评估,我们的方法显示出优越性,在性能上优于现有的通用和专用 LLM。
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引用次数: 0
Co-occurrence order-preserving pattern mining with keypoint alignment for time series 利用关键点对齐进行时间序列的共现保序模式挖掘
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1145/3658450
Youxi Wu, Zhen Wang, Yan Li, Ying Guo, He Jiang, Xingquan Zhu, Xindong Wu
Recently, order-preserving pattern (OPP) mining has been proposed to discover some patterns, which can be seen as trend changes in time series. Although existing OPP mining algorithms have achieved satisfactory performance, they discover all frequent patterns. However, in some cases, users focus on a particular trend and its associated trends. To efficiently discover trend information related to a specific prefix pattern, this paper addresses the issue of co-occurrence OPP mining (COP) and proposes an algorithm named COP-Miner to discover COPs from historical time series. COP-Miner consists of three parts: extracting keypoints, preparation stage, and iteratively calculating supports and mining frequent COPs. Extracting keypoints is used to obtain local extreme points of patterns and time series. The preparation stage is designed to prepare for the first round of mining, which contains four steps: obtaining the suffix OPP of the keypoint sub-time series, calculating the occurrences of the suffix OPP, verifying the occurrences of the keypoint sub-time series, and calculating the occurrences of all fusion patterns of the keypoint sub-time series. To further improve the efficiency of support calculation, we propose a support calculation method with an ending strategy that uses the occurrences of prefix and suffix patterns to calculate the occurrences of superpatterns. Experimental results indicate that COP-Miner outperforms the other competing algorithms in running time and scalability. Moreover, COPs with keypoint alignment yield better prediction performance.
最近,有人提出了 "保序模式(OPP)挖掘 "来发现一些模式,这些模式可以看作是时间序列中的趋势变化。虽然现有的 OPP 挖掘算法性能令人满意,但它们发现的都是频繁模式。然而,在某些情况下,用户会关注某一特定趋势及其相关趋势。为了有效发现与特定前缀模式相关的趋势信息,本文针对共现 OPP 挖掘(COP)问题,提出了一种名为 COP-Miner 的算法,用于从历史时间序列中发现 COP。COP-Miner 包括三个部分:提取关键点、准备阶段和迭代计算支持度并挖掘频繁 COP。提取关键点用于获取模式和时间序列的局部极值点。准备阶段旨在为第一轮挖掘做准备,包括四个步骤:获取关键点子时间序列的后缀 OPP、计算后缀 OPP 的出现率、验证关键点子时间序列的出现率、计算关键点子时间序列所有融合模式的出现率。为了进一步提高支持计算的效率,我们提出了一种带有结束策略的支持计算方法,即利用前缀和后缀模式的出现率来计算超模式的出现率。实验结果表明,COP-Miner 在运行时间和可扩展性方面都优于其他竞争算法。此外,具有关键点对齐功能的 COP 能产生更好的预测性能。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Future Financial Development of Urban Areas for Deploying Bank Branches: A Local-Regional Interpretable Model 估算城市地区未来金融发展以部署银行网点:地方-区域可解释模型
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1145/3656479
Pei-Xuan Li, Yu-En Chang, Ming-Chun Wei, Hsun-Ping Hsieh
Financial forecasting is an important task for urban development. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework to predict the future financial potential of urban spaces. To be more precise, our target is to infer the number of financial institutions in the future for any arbitrary location with environmental and geographical data. We propose a novel local-regional model, the L ocal-Regional I nterpretable M ulti- A ttention model (LIMA model), that considers multiple aspects of a location - the place itself and its surroundings. Besides, our model offers three kinds of interpretability, providing a superior way for decision makers to understand how the model determines the prediction: critical rules learned from the tree-based module, surrounding locations that are high-correlated with the prediction, and critical regional features. Our module not only takes advantage of a tree-based model, which can effectively extract cross features, but also leverages convolutional neural networks to obtain more complex and inclusive features around the target location. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed LIMA model against the existing state-of-art methods. The LIMA model has been deployed as a web system for assisting one of the largest bank companies in Taiwan to select locations for building new branches in major cities since 2020.
金融预测是城市发展的一项重要任务。在本文中,我们提出了一种新颖的深度学习框架,用于预测城市空间未来的金融潜力。更准确地说,我们的目标是利用环境和地理数据推断任意地点未来金融机构的数量。我们提出了一个新颖的地方-区域模型,即地方-区域可解释多功能模型(LIMA 模型),该模型考虑了地点的多个方面--地点本身及其周边环境。此外,我们的模型还提供了三种可解释性,为决策者理解模型如何决定预测提供了更优越的方式:从基于树的模块中学习到的关键规则、与预测高度相关的周边地点以及关键的区域特征。我们的模块不仅利用了能有效提取交叉特征的树状模型,还利用卷积神经网络获得了目标位置周围更复杂、更全面的特征。在实际数据集上的实验结果表明,我们提出的 LIMA 模型优于现有的先进方法。LIMA 模型已被部署为一个网络系统,用于协助台湾最大的银行公司之一自 2020 年起在主要城市选择新分行的建设地点。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring How UK Public Authorities Use Redaction to Protect Personal Information 探索英国公共机构如何使用 "编辑 "技术保护个人信息
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI: 10.1145/3651989
Yijun Chen, Reuben Kirkham
Document redaction has become increasingly important for individuals and organizations. This article investigates public-sector information redaction practices in order to determine if they adequately protect personal information from accidental disclosure due to redaction errors. Despite the importance of this in respect of data protection, 66.4% of those Public Authorities that responded did not hold formal policies or procedures at all . To assess those policies that did exist, we produced a 17-item check list of minimum best practice. Even those with policies and procedures had substantial defects to some degree (with the median performance being 29.4% on our checklist), with policies frequently recommending the use of high-risk redaction methods and overlooking essential practices. This means that these existing practices amount to widespread breaches of data protection law on the ground. To remedy this, we articulate a new set of document redaction standards, which overcome the existing inadequacies in current guidance, as well as make proposals for regulatory reform in this space.
对个人和组织而言,文件编辑变得越来越重要。本文调查了公共部门的信息编辑实践,以确定它们是否能充分保护个人信息不因编辑错误而意外泄露。尽管这一点在数据保护方面非常重要,但 66.4% 的公共机构在回复中表示根本没有制定正式的政策或程序。为了评估那些确实存在的政策,我们编制了一份包含 17 个项目的最低限度最佳实践检查清单。即使是那些制定了政策和程序的公共机构,在某种程度上也存在重大缺陷(在我们的核对清单中,表现的中位数为 29.4%),政策经常建议使用高风险的编辑方法,而忽略了基本的做法。这意味着,这些现行做法在实际中普遍违反了数据保护法。为了弥补这一缺陷,我们提出了一套新的文件编辑标准,以克服当前指南中存在的不足,并为这一领域的监管改革提出建议。
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引用次数: 0
A Psycholinguistics-Inspired Method to Counter IP Theft using Fake Documents 受心理语言学启发的利用假文件打击知识产权盗窃的方法
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1145/3651313
Natalia Denisenko, Youzhi Zhang, Chiara Pulice, Shohini Bhattasali, Sushil Jajodia, Philip Resnik, V. S. Subrahmanian
Intellectual property (IP) theft is a growing problem. We build on prior work to deter IP theft by generating n fake versions of a technical document so that a thief has to expend time and effort in identifying the correct document. Our new SbFAKE framework proposes for the first time, a novel combination of language processing, optimization, and the psycholinguistic concept of surprisal to generate a set of such fakes. We start by combining psycholinguistic-based surprisal scores and optimization to generate two bilevel surprisal optimization problems (an Explicit one and a simpler Implicit one) whose solutions correspond directly to the desired set of fakes. As bilevel problems are usually hard to solve, we then show that these two bilevel surprisal optimization problems can each be reduced to equivalent surprisal-based linear programs. We performed detailed parameter tuning experiments and identified the best parameters for each of these algorithms. We then tested these two variants of SbFAKE (with their best parameter settings) against the best performing prior work in the field. Our experiments show that SbFAKE is able to more effectively generate convincing fakes than past work. In addition, we show that replacing words in an original document with words having similar surprisal scores generates greater levels of deception.
知识产权(IP)盗窃是一个日益严重的问题。我们在先前工作的基础上,通过生成 n 个伪造版本的技术文档来阻止知识产权盗窃,从而使盗窃者不得不花费时间和精力来识别正确的文档。我们的新 SbFAKE 框架首次将语言处理、优化和心理语言学的 "惊奇"(surisal)概念结合起来,生成了一组这样的赝品。我们首先将基于心理语言学的意外得分与优化相结合,生成两个双层意外优化问题(一个显性问题和一个更简单的隐性问题),其解决方案直接对应于所需的假词集。由于双层问题通常很难解决,我们随后证明这两个双层惊喜优化问题可以分别简化为等价的基于惊喜的线性程序。我们进行了详细的参数调整实验,确定了每种算法的最佳参数。然后,我们将 SbFAKE 的这两个变体(使用其最佳参数设置)与该领域表现最好的先前工作进行了对比测试。实验结果表明,与以往的研究相比,SbFAKE 能够更有效地生成令人信服的赝品。此外,我们还表明,用具有相似惊奇值的词语替换原始文档中的词语,会产生更高水平的欺骗。
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引用次数: 0
The Data Product-Service Composition Frontier: a Hybrid Learning Approach 数据产品-服务构成前沿:混合学习法
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1145/3649319
Giovanni Quattrocchi, Willem-jan Van Den Heuvel, D. Tamburri
The service dominant logic is a base concept behind modern economies and software products, with service composition being a well-known practice for companies to gain a competitive edge over others by joining differentiated services together, typically assembled according to a number of features. At the other end of the spectrum, product compositions are a marketing device to sell products together in bundles that often augment the value for the customer, e.g., with suggested product interactions, sharing, etc. Unfortunately, currently each of these two streams—namely, product and service composition—are carried out and delivered individually in splendid isolation: anything is being offered as a product and as a service, disjointly. We argue that the next wave of services computing features more and more service fusion with physical counterparts as well as data around them. Therefore a need emerges to investigate the interactive engagement of both (data) products and services. This manuscript offers a real-life implementation in support of this argument, using (1) genetic algorithms (GA) to shape product-service clusters, (2) end-user feedback to make the GAs interactive with a data-driven fashion, and (3) a hybridized approach which factors into our solution an ensemble machine-learning method considering additional features. All this research was conducted in an industrial environment. With such a cross-fertilized, data-driven, and multi-disciplinary approach, practitioners from both fields may benefit from their mutual state of the art as well as learn new strategies for product, service, and data product-service placement for increased value to the customer as well as the service provider. Results show promise but also highlight plenty of avenues for further research.
服务主导逻辑是现代经济和软件产品背后的一个基本概念,服务组合是一种众所周知的做法,公司通过将差异化的服务组合在一起,通常是根据一些特征组合在一起,从而获得竞争优势。在另一端,产品组合是一种营销手段,将产品捆绑在一起销售,通常会增加客户的价值,如建议产品互动、共享等。遗憾的是,目前这两类产品(即产品和服务组合)都是孤立进行和单独提供的:任何产品和服务都是相互独立的。我们认为,下一波服务计算浪潮的特点是越来越多的服务与物理对应物及其周围的数据融合在一起。因此,有必要对(数据)产品和服务的互动参与进行研究。本手稿提供了支持这一论点的实际实施方案,使用(1)遗传算法(GA)来塑造产品-服务集群;(2)终端用户反馈使遗传算法以数据驱动的方式进行交互;(3)混合方法,在我们的解决方案中加入了考虑到其他特征的集合机器学习方法。所有这些研究都是在工业环境中进行的。通过这种交叉融合、数据驱动和多学科的方法,两个领域的从业人员都可以从彼此的技术水平中获益,并学习新的产品、服务和数据产品服务安置策略,从而提高客户和服务提供商的价值。研究结果显示了前景,但也强调了许多有待进一步研究的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Agent-based Model of Initial Token Allocations: Simulating Distributions post Fair Launch 基于代理的初始代币分配模型:模拟公平启动后的分配
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1145/3649318
Joaquin Delgado Fernandez, Tom Josua Barbereau, Orestis Papageorgiou
With advancements in distributed ledger technologies and smart contracts, tokenized voting rights gained prominence within Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Voting rights tokens (aka. governance tokens) are fungible tokens that grant individual holders the right to vote upon the fate of a project. The motivation behind these tokens is to achieve decentral control within a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO). Because the initial allocations of these tokens is often un-democratic, the DeFi project and DAO of Yearn Finance experimented with a fair launch allocation where no tokens are pre-mined and all participants have an equal opportunity to receive them. Regardless, research on voting rights tokens highlights the formation of timocracies over time. The consideration is that the tokens’ tradability is the cause of concentration. To examine this proposition, this paper uses an agent-based model to simulate and analyze the concentration of voting rights tokens post three fair launch allocation scenarios under different trading modalities. The results show that regardless of the allocation, concentration persistently occurs. It confirms the consideration that the ‘disease’ is endogenous: the cause of concentration is the tokens’ tradablility. The findings inform theoretical understandings and practical implications for on-chain governance mediated by tokens.
随着分布式账本技术和智能合约的发展,代币化投票权在去中心化金融(DeFi)领域获得了突出地位。投票权代币(又称治理代币)是可替代代币,赋予个人持有者对项目命运进行投票的权利。这些代币背后的动机是在去中心化自治组织(DAO)内实现去中心化控制。由于这些代币的初始分配往往是不民主的,DeFi 项目和 Yearn Finance 的 DAO 尝试了一种公平的启动分配,即不预先挖掘代币,所有参与者都有平等的机会获得代币。无论如何,关于投票权代币的研究强调了随着时间推移形成的时间型政体。考虑因素是代币的可交易性是集中的原因。为了研究这一命题,本文使用基于代理的模型模拟和分析了不同交易模式下三种公平发射分配方案后投票权代币的集中情况。结果表明,无论采用哪种分配方式,集中都会持续发生。这证实了 "疾病 "是内生性的这一观点:集中的原因在于代币的可交易性。研究结果为以代币为媒介的链上治理提供了理论认识和实践启示。
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引用次数: 0
Design with Simon's Inner and Outer Environments: Theoretical Foundations for Design Science Research Methods for Digital Science 西蒙的《内外环境设计》:设计科学的理论基础 数字科学的研究方法
IF 2.5 Q2 Computer Science Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.1145/3640819
V. Storey, Richard Baskerville
Design science research has traditionally been applied to complex real-world problems to produce an artifact to address such problems. Although design science research efforts have been applied traditionally to business or related problems, there is a large set of problems in the area of digital science that also require important, digital artifacts. The digitalization of science has resulted in the need to develop essential, specialized, devices and software before it is feasible for scientists to carry out their work. This research examines digital science to identify its challenges and demonstrate how it can be possible to progress digital science with design science research, thereby establishing digital science as an important area of transdisciplinary inquiry. These areas of research are examined for their synergies and explained by positioning artifact development challenges with respect to Simon's inner and outer environments, and the interface between them.
设计科学研究历来被应用于复杂的现实世界问题,以产生一种人工制品来解决这些问题。尽管设计科学研究工作传统上一直应用于商业或相关问题,但数字科学领域的大量问题也需要重要的数字人工制品。科学的数字化导致科学家在开展工作之前需要开发必要的专业设备和软件。本研究对数字科学进行了研究,以确定其面临的挑战,并展示如何通过设计科学研究推动数字科学的发展,从而将数字科学确立为跨学科研究的一个重要领域。通过将人工制品开发的挑战与西蒙的内部和外部环境以及两者之间的界面联系起来,研究了这些研究领域的协同作用,并对其进行了解释。
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引用次数: 0
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ACM Transactions on Management Information Systems
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