{"title":"Paradox of Excess Liquidity in European Emerging and Transition Economies","authors":"Albulenë Kastrati","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.793","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49162827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Gender Pay Gap in the Czech Republic - Its Evolution and Main Drivers","authors":"Drahomíra Zajíčková,Miroslav Zajíček","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.787","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.787","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":"57 1","pages":"675-723"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138542090","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
1 This article simulates a programme called Employer of Last Resort, and analyses its potential impact in the Czech Republic. The design of the programme guarantees perfectly inelastic demand for labour at a given wage level. In practice, the state would offer a job to anyone willing to work in order to eliminate involuntary unemployment, reduce poverty and income inequality and secure stable growth. My aim is to estimate hypothetical effects on the main objectives and calculate fiscal demands if the programme was launched on the Czech labour market. The results suggest that the programme could significantly reduce unemployment and decrease income inequality. On the other hand, it would have limited impact on income poverty. The gross wage costs of implementing the Employer of Last Resort programme in the Czech Republic are in all constructed scenarios below 1% of the gross domestic product and further calculations suggest that the total net costs could even be negative.
{"title":"Employer of Last Resort for the Czech Republic","authors":"Filip Červenka","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.792","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.792","url":null,"abstract":"1 This article simulates a programme called Employer of Last Resort, and analyses its potential impact in the Czech Republic. The design of the programme guarantees perfectly inelastic demand for labour at a given wage level. In practice, the state would offer a job to anyone willing to work in order to eliminate involuntary unemployment, reduce poverty and income inequality and secure stable growth. My aim is to estimate hypothetical effects on the main objectives and calculate fiscal demands if the programme was launched on the Czech labour market. The results suggest that the programme could significantly reduce unemployment and decrease income inequality. On the other hand, it would have limited impact on income poverty. The gross wage costs of implementing the Employer of Last Resort programme in the Czech Republic are in all constructed scenarios below 1% of the gross domestic product and further calculations suggest that the total net costs could even be negative.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49098277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Typically economists arguing for flexible (or variable) retirement age, but they rely on steady state analysis. In this paper we consider the replacement of a mandatory retirement system with a flexible one in real time. We show that even if early retirement is duly punished, diminishing the effective retirement age by 1 year raises the first year's and the total expenditures during transition by 8% and 70% of the original annual expenditure, respectively. JEL codes: H11, H55
{"title":"Introducing Flexible Retirement: A Dynamic Model","authors":"A. Simonovits","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.788","url":null,"abstract":"Typically economists arguing for flexible (or variable) retirement age, but they rely on steady state analysis. In this paper we consider the replacement of a mandatory retirement system with a flexible one in real time. We show that even if early retirement is duly punished, diminishing the effective retirement age by 1 year raises the first year's and the total expenditures during transition by 8% and 70% of the original annual expenditure, respectively. JEL codes: H11, H55","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46425568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyse the economic impact of the economic recession caused by the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic by estimating the amplitude, duration and scope of influence of the recession. We employ the turning point method to extract the characteristics of the historical recessions since 1980 in 153 countries and use the information to obtain the distribution characteristics of the GDP growth rate in these countries during the current pandemic-induced recession with Monte Carlo simulation. We then make judgment on the scope of influence of this pandemic-induced recession by investigating the co-movement relationship between the historical recessions in the 153 countries. The results show that this pandemic-induced recession is likely to be a severe global recession. The mean of the average simulated Delta GDP of the 153 countries will plunge into a trough at -1.16% in 2020 with a recession amplitude of approximately 4.50% and recover to the pre-crisis level of 3.29% in 2023.
{"title":"Study on Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic Recession Based on Monte Carlo Simulation","authors":"Di Shang, Chan Yu, Gang Diao","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.786","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.786","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse the economic impact of the economic recession caused by the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic by estimating the amplitude, duration and scope of influence of the recession. We employ the turning point method to extract the characteristics of the historical recessions since 1980 in 153 countries and use the information to obtain the distribution characteristics of the GDP growth rate in these countries during the current pandemic-induced recession with Monte Carlo simulation. We then make judgment on the scope of influence of this pandemic-induced recession by investigating the co-movement relationship between the historical recessions in the 153 countries. The results show that this pandemic-induced recession is likely to be a severe global recession. The mean of the average simulated Delta GDP of the 153 countries will plunge into a trough at -1.16% in 2020 with a recession amplitude of approximately 4.50% and recover to the pre-crisis level of 3.29% in 2023.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47995319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Sánchez-Sellero, Beatriz García-Carro, Pedro Sánchez‐Sellero
The aim of this paper is to develop subjective synthetic indicators that quantify the quality of life in the different countries of the EU-28, with data from the 2016 European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS). We add other indicators to the general synthetic ones in order to quantify the different dimensions of quality life due to its multidimensional nature. The successive but unchained application of the principal component analysis and the Mazziota-Pareto analysis allows us to classify 5 dimensions of quality of life: subjective component of governance, public services, environment, general satisfaction with life, and socioeconomic issues. We verify that countries with the lowest or highest positions in the general index usually keep that position in most dimensions. The spatial perspective is fundamental to study of regional development. For this reason, the next objective is the analysis of differences by spatial location using the variance analysis. The general indicator shows significant differences between EU countries but it does not show differences in the quality of life of European citizens in urban and rural areas.
{"title":"Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Subjective Life in the EU: Rural and Urban Areas","authors":"M. Sánchez-Sellero, Beatriz García-Carro, Pedro Sánchez‐Sellero","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.783","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to develop subjective synthetic indicators that quantify the quality of life in the different countries of the EU-28, with data from the 2016 European Quality of Life Survey (EQLS). We add other indicators to the general synthetic ones in order to quantify the different dimensions of quality life due to its multidimensional nature. The successive but unchained application of the principal component analysis and the Mazziota-Pareto analysis allows us to classify 5 dimensions of quality of life: subjective component of governance, public services, environment, general satisfaction with life, and socioeconomic issues. We verify that countries with the lowest or highest positions in the general index usually keep that position in most dimensions. The spatial perspective is fundamental to study of regional development. For this reason, the next objective is the analysis of differences by spatial location using the variance analysis. The general indicator shows significant differences between EU countries but it does not show differences in the quality of life of European citizens in urban and rural areas.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43323774","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Equity release contracts allow property owners to receive a financial benefit in exchange for surrendering their real estate to a company. The benefits depend on the life expectancy of owners, the real value of properties, and the rate of interest. These parameters are not the same throughout the years. The aim of the paper is to analyse varying payments of equity release contracts which have already been offered to customers for several years in Poland. A recalculation procedure year by year is proposed applying the actuarial and financial methods. This paper estimates the potential advantages of reverse annuity and reverse mortgage contracts in a changing economic environment. The calculations were made based on actual Polish market data, including the Svensson model of spot interest rate. It is shown that there is considerable scope for increasing retirement income; however, the exact amounts may be unknown. The advantages for customers resulting from changes in parameters and valorization are shown, as well as the risk associated with equity release.
{"title":"Equity Release Contracts with Varying Payments","authors":"A. Marciniuk","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.784","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.784","url":null,"abstract":"Equity release contracts allow property owners to receive a financial benefit in exchange for surrendering their real estate to a company. The benefits depend on the life expectancy of owners, the real value of properties, and the rate of interest. These parameters are not the same throughout the years. The aim of the paper is to analyse varying payments of equity release contracts which have already been offered to customers for several years in Poland. A recalculation procedure year by year is proposed applying the actuarial and financial methods. This paper estimates the potential advantages of reverse annuity and reverse mortgage contracts in a changing economic environment. The calculations were made based on actual Polish market data, including the Svensson model of spot interest rate. It is shown that there is considerable scope for increasing retirement income; however, the exact amounts may be unknown. The advantages for customers resulting from changes in parameters and valorization are shown, as well as the risk associated with equity release.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48139485","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Foreign banks have played a major role in Central and Eastern European economic landscape over the last decades. They have spurred banking intermediation and fuelled economic growth for years. However, the global financial crisis unveiled the other side of the coin. This article analyses foreign banks' lending behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe over the period from 2000 to 2016. It aims to investigate the nexus between bank loan growth, cross-border bank claims and the cycle period. Moreover, it captures the impact of the financial cycle on foreign banks' credit behaviour and highlights whether foreign bank ownership is influenced by host- and home-country effects. Our findings reveal the strong nexus between foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Also, we emphasize the pro-cyclicality of foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Furthermore, we see clear differences related to foreign banks' lending behaviour during normal and turbulent times, triggered by host- and home-country effects. These results raise policy challenges regarding the right bank ownership balance and the use of prudential regulation.
{"title":"Foreign Banks in Central and Eastern Europe: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly","authors":"M. Niţoi, D. Clichici, Simona Moagăr-Poladian","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.782","url":null,"abstract":"Foreign banks have played a major role in Central and Eastern European economic landscape over the last decades. They have spurred banking intermediation and fuelled economic growth for years. However, the global financial crisis unveiled the other side of the coin. This article analyses foreign banks' lending behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe over the period from 2000 to 2016. It aims to investigate the nexus between bank loan growth, cross-border bank claims and the cycle period. Moreover, it captures the impact of the financial cycle on foreign banks' credit behaviour and highlights whether foreign bank ownership is influenced by host- and home-country effects. Our findings reveal the strong nexus between foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Also, we emphasize the pro-cyclicality of foreign banks' loan growth and cross-border bank claims. Furthermore, we see clear differences related to foreign banks' lending behaviour during normal and turbulent times, triggered by host- and home-country effects. These results raise policy challenges regarding the right bank ownership balance and the use of prudential regulation.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41975392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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