{"title":"Dynamic Herding Behaviour In the US Stock Market","authors":"Muhammad Yasir,A. Önder","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.760","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.760","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyse the extent and determinants of somewhat gloomy employment prospects of older unemployed populations in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. For this purpose, we explore the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions over the period 2004-2014. Survival estimates suggest that older unemployed workers face lower job-finding probabilities compared to prime-age unemployed workers, while this age-based gap increases with longer unemployment spells. The results of estimating the hazard models reveal that the job-finding probability of older unemployed workers is about 20-25% lower than that of the prime-age group, even after controlling for explanatory covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Unemployment duration appears to be the major determinant of job-finding probability within both age groups. In contrast, the impact of explanatory covariates (gender, education, household characteristics, etc.) is relatively less robust and/or uniform.
{"title":"ASSESSING THE JOB-FINDING PROBABILITY OF OLDER AND PRIME-AGE UNEMPLOYED WORKERS","authors":"Vladislav Flek, Martin Hála, Martina Mysíková","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.738","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.738","url":null,"abstract":"We analyse the extent and determinants of somewhat gloomy employment prospects of older unemployed populations in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. For this purpose, we explore the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions over the period 2004-2014. Survival estimates suggest that older unemployed workers face lower job-finding probabilities compared to prime-age unemployed workers, while this age-based gap increases with longer unemployment spells. The results of estimating the hazard models reveal that the job-finding probability of older unemployed workers is about 20-25% lower than that of the prime-age group, even after controlling for explanatory covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Unemployment duration appears to be the major determinant of job-finding probability within both age groups. In contrast, the impact of explanatory covariates (gender, education, household characteristics, etc.) is relatively less robust and/or uniform.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The trend of cryptocurrencies has stirred interest in the underlying technology that qualifies cryptocurrencies as a secure structure with speedy, timely and cheap transactions. The aforementioned technology, the blockchain, in brief terms is a decentralized ledger technology that attains an immutable characteristic through consensus and timestamp mechanics. The model also sets the stage for transparency in transactions, which renders the technology applicable to a myriad of scenarios that involve financial instruments. This research puts forth an argumentative approach to the applicability of blockchain technology and specifically studies the prospect of utilizing smart contracts. This approach probes the feasibility of introducing smart contracts to everyday financial transactions and settlements. An opposing perspective, by taking a devil's advocate standpoint, invokes the impractical or implausible aspects of implementing the blockchain in certain scenarios. Difficulty in auditing is a prominent example among those impracticalities. Research methodology is qualitative in nature and takes the form of exploratory research by examining existing literature on the topic.
{"title":"AN EXPLORATIVE PAPER ON SPECULATIVE APPROACHES TO SMART CONTRACTS","authors":"Sanel Halilbegovic, Necip Ertem","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.742","url":null,"abstract":"The trend of cryptocurrencies has stirred interest in the underlying technology that qualifies cryptocurrencies as a secure structure with speedy, timely and cheap transactions. The aforementioned technology, the blockchain, in brief terms is a decentralized ledger technology that attains an immutable characteristic through consensus and timestamp mechanics. The model also sets the stage for transparency in transactions, which renders the technology applicable to a myriad of scenarios that involve financial instruments. This research puts forth an argumentative approach to the applicability of blockchain technology and specifically studies the prospect of utilizing smart contracts. This approach probes the feasibility of introducing smart contracts to everyday financial transactions and settlements. An opposing perspective, by taking a devil's advocate standpoint, invokes the impractical or implausible aspects of implementing the blockchain in certain scenarios. Difficulty in auditing is a prominent example among those impracticalities. Research methodology is qualitative in nature and takes the form of exploratory research by examining existing literature on the topic.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138508778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, using the recent recursive unit root tests proposed by Phillips et al. (2015), we identify and date-stamp periods where food and energy prices deviate explosively relative to other prices in the economy and analyse the implications in terms of anchoring inflation expectations. During the period from January 2003 to July 2018, we have detected the existence of such periods for 17 out of 27 EU countries. Identifying these explosive periods is particularly important since evidence reveals that consumers change, i.e., revise their inflation expectations during periods when headline consumer prices deviate explosively from core prices. Furthermore, it is realized that consumers take macroeconomic variables into account as well as past inflation when forming inflation expectations in both normal and explosive periods. On the other hand, there are particular differences among groups of countries while adjusting their inflation expectations during explosive phases. A common feature for all the countries is that during explosive periods, consumers change and update their inflation expectations on the basis of information coming from the interest rate. More specifically, consumers in all the countries perceive a higher current interest rate as an indication of higher future inflation, leading to higher inflation expectations in explosive periods. A particularly important policy implication of these findings is that periods of explosive deviations in headline prices from core prices should be monitored closely while designing policies to anchor inflation expectations.
{"title":"How Consumers' Inflation Expectations Respond to Explosive Periods of Food and Energy Prices: Evidence for European Union Countries","authors":"Aytül Ganioğlu","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.717","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, using the recent recursive unit root tests proposed by Phillips et al. (2015), we identify and date-stamp periods where food and energy prices deviate explosively relative to other prices in the economy and analyse the implications in terms of anchoring inflation expectations. During the period from January 2003 to July 2018, we have detected the existence of such periods for 17 out of 27 EU countries. Identifying these explosive periods is particularly important since evidence reveals that consumers change, i.e., revise their inflation expectations during periods when headline consumer prices deviate explosively from core prices. Furthermore, it is realized that consumers take macroeconomic variables into account as well as past inflation when forming inflation expectations in both normal and explosive periods. On the other hand, there are particular differences among groups of countries while adjusting their inflation expectations during explosive phases. A common feature for all the countries is that during explosive periods, consumers change and update their inflation expectations on the basis of information coming from the interest rate. More specifically, consumers in all the countries perceive a higher current interest rate as an indication of higher future inflation, leading to higher inflation expectations in explosive periods. A particularly important policy implication of these findings is that periods of explosive deviations in headline prices from core prices should be monitored closely while designing policies to anchor inflation expectations.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46061613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We present a macro stress-testing model for banks' market and funding liquidity risks with a survival period of one year. The model follows the main principles of the Basel standards LCR and NSFR. Besides, the model takes into account the impact of both bank-specific and market-wide scenarios and includes second- round effects of shocks due to banks' feedback reactions. The presented methodology is then applied to a sample of Czech banks. This allows us to monitor the sensitivity of their liquidity position to the combination of shocks under consideration.
{"title":"A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Basel Liquidity Standards","authors":"Hana Hejlová, Zlatuše Komárková, Marek Rusňák","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.732","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.732","url":null,"abstract":"We present a macro stress-testing model for banks' market and funding liquidity risks with a survival period of one year. The model follows the main principles of the Basel standards LCR and NSFR. Besides, the model takes into account the impact of both bank-specific and market-wide scenarios and includes second- round effects of shocks due to banks' feedback reactions. The presented methodology is then applied to a sample of Czech banks. This allows us to monitor the sensitivity of their liquidity position to the combination of shocks under consideration.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46251270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyses the effects of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) on yields of corporate sector bonds and its impact on the corporate sector's debt markets. The CSPP started as a part of an existing asset purchase programme and significantly affected corporate bond markets. Any research undertaken in this area of the ECB's respective actions is fairly limited due to the restrained access to data and its OTC nature. This paper analyses CSPP effects by using two distinct methods - a detailed regression-controlled event study and an impulse-response analysis of constructed VAR models. This study addresses questions regarding time, size and place of effects caused by the CSPP on corporate bond markets and deals in detail with related issues and related economic theory backgrounds. A series of obtained sector, country and company-specific results gives us a picture of the non-negligible impact of the CSPP on purchased bonds and of the size and persistency of stock and flow effects of the ECB's actions.
{"title":"Outreach and Effects of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme","authors":"Jakub Jakl","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.729","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.729","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the effects of the ECB Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) on yields of corporate sector bonds and its impact on the corporate sector's debt markets. The CSPP started as a part of an existing asset purchase programme and significantly affected corporate bond markets. Any research undertaken in this area of the ECB's respective actions is fairly limited due to the restrained access to data and its OTC nature. This paper analyses CSPP effects by using two distinct methods - a detailed regression-controlled event study and an impulse-response analysis of constructed VAR models. This study addresses questions regarding time, size and place of effects caused by the CSPP on corporate bond markets and deals in detail with related issues and related economic theory backgrounds. A series of obtained sector, country and company-specific results gives us a picture of the non-negligible impact of the CSPP on purchased bonds and of the size and persistency of stock and flow effects of the ECB's actions.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43614082","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Plopeanu, Daniel Homocianu, Christiana Brigitte Sandu, E. Jaba
In the context of increasing concerns about the demographic decline of Europe and the lack of sustainable policies to fight against it, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the migration intention of the Romanian students in economics and business administration and the influence of the determinant factors. Data are collected from a questionnaire survey applied to a sample of 1,155 students at the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi. We have applied a multinomial logistic regression model with both simple effects and interactions. The results have brought strong arguments proving the importance of personal value recognition, beliefs and attitudes, family background, as well as interactions between genders, attitude towards competition and active search for a job or between parental severity and migration legacy, as determinant factors of the students' intention to migrate to Western Europe. These results may serve regional, national and even community-based sustainable development policies for the conservation of human resources and mostly of higher-educated individuals.
{"title":"Exploring the Migration Intention of Romanian Students in Economics","authors":"A. Plopeanu, Daniel Homocianu, Christiana Brigitte Sandu, E. Jaba","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.736","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.736","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of increasing concerns about the demographic decline of Europe and the lack of sustainable policies to fight against it, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the migration intention of the Romanian students in economics and business administration and the influence of the determinant factors. Data are collected from a questionnaire survey applied to a sample of 1,155 students at the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi. We have applied a multinomial logistic regression model with both simple effects and interactions. The results have brought strong arguments proving the importance of personal value recognition, beliefs and attitudes, family background, as well as interactions between genders, attitude towards competition and active search for a job or between parental severity and migration legacy, as determinant factors of the students' intention to migrate to Western Europe. These results may serve regional, national and even community-based sustainable development policies for the conservation of human resources and mostly of higher-educated individuals.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41583742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Jelonek, C. Stepniak, Tomasz Turek, Leszek Ziora
The aim of the article is to present a model of sentiment analysis tool application for planning directions of city development. The study presents a model of using sentiment analysis to build city development strategies as well as realization of projects related to it. The presented model is a part of a larger work on developing the concept of the Regional Spatial Business Community (RSBC). The RSBC is created on the basis of electronic communities built by stakeholders involved in the development of a given city. On the basis of surveys, a six-stage city development procedure is proposed. Using the aforementioned procedure, we describe potential data sources, the goals of sentiment analysis application and expected effects. Analyses of the applicability of sentiment analysis are made on the basis of observation of available tools. The obtained model is applicable; however, its implementation requires certain conditions to be met.
{"title":"Planning Cities Development Directions with the Application of Sentiment Analysis","authors":"D. Jelonek, C. Stepniak, Tomasz Turek, Leszek Ziora","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.740","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of the article is to present a model of sentiment analysis tool application for planning directions of city development. The study presents a model of using sentiment analysis to build city development strategies as well as realization of projects related to it. The presented model is a part of a larger work on developing the concept of the Regional Spatial Business Community (RSBC). The RSBC is created on the basis of electronic communities built by stakeholders involved in the development of a given city. On the basis of surveys, a six-stage city development procedure is proposed. Using the aforementioned procedure, we describe potential data sources, the goals of sentiment analysis application and expected effects. Analyses of the applicability of sentiment analysis are made on the basis of observation of available tools. The obtained model is applicable; however, its implementation requires certain conditions to be met.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47560465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mindaugas Butkus, A. Mačiulytė-Šniukienė, Kristina Matuzevičiūtė, Diana Cibulskiene
Analysing papers that reveal by decomposing territorial inequalities in the EU that the share of disparities attributed to the NUTS 3 level has increased over the last 20 years, this paper aims to examine to what extent the financial support in 2000-2006 from ERDF and CF, which are the main regional policy tools but mainly are directed to address the issues arising at the NUTS 2 level, contributed to supporting convergence at the NUTS 3 level. Our re-search strategy relies on combining a conditional β-convergence model and a difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator. Estimations are generated for four alternative post-policy periods, two ways to measure policy intervention and for different funds as well as different expenditure categories. Our research results bring to light the question of potential negative outcomes of the EU's existing regional policy since the policy that is focused on the NUTS 2 level is enlarging imbalances within these regions, i.e., among NUTS 3 regions.
{"title":"Does Financial Support from ERDF and CF Contribute to Convergence in the EU? Empirical Evidence at NUTS 3 Level","authors":"Mindaugas Butkus, A. Mačiulytė-Šniukienė, Kristina Matuzevičiūtė, Diana Cibulskiene","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.737","url":null,"abstract":"Analysing papers that reveal by decomposing territorial inequalities in the EU that the share of disparities attributed to the NUTS 3 level has increased over the last 20 years, this paper aims to examine to what extent the financial support in 2000-2006 from ERDF and CF, which are the main regional policy tools but mainly are directed to address the issues arising at the NUTS 2 level, contributed to supporting convergence at the NUTS 3 level. Our re-search strategy relies on combining a conditional β-convergence model and a difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator. Estimations are generated for four alternative post-policy periods, two ways to measure policy intervention and for different funds as well as different expenditure categories. Our research results bring to light the question of potential negative outcomes of the EU's existing regional policy since the policy that is focused on the NUTS 2 level is enlarging imbalances within these regions, i.e., among NUTS 3 regions.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44668653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the transmission from interest rates to household saving behaviour when introducing two main innovations of analysing this relationship. The first one is based on the use of a set of client interest rates instead of one monetary policy rate. This step enables us to distinguish impacts of the substitution and income effects in more detail. The second major innovation lies in the division of households into income categories, which provides us with more observations and thus makes it possible to conduct this analysis even for a single country. Using the generalized method of moments for the dynamic panel data, we analyse Czech household behaviour for the period 2004-2015. The results highlight that when we ignore details of the transmission channel and use only a monetary policy rate, we lose crucial information about contradictory impacts of the substitution and income effects that are primarily reflected in the client interest rates. This fact may clarify most of the interest rate-savings rate puzzle.
{"title":"INTEREST RATES AND HOUSEHOLD SAVING BEHAVIOUR: AN EMPIRICAL PUZZLE AND A SOLUTION USING CZECH DATA","authors":"Ondřej Badura","doi":"10.18267/j.pep.741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18267/j.pep.741","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the transmission from interest rates to household saving behaviour when introducing two main innovations of analysing this relationship. The first one is based on the use of a set of client interest rates instead of one monetary policy rate. This step enables us to distinguish impacts of the substitution and income effects in more detail. The second major innovation lies in the division of households into income categories, which provides us with more observations and thus makes it possible to conduct this analysis even for a single country. Using the generalized method of moments for the dynamic panel data, we analyse Czech household behaviour for the period 2004-2015. The results highlight that when we ignore details of the transmission channel and use only a monetary policy rate, we lose crucial information about contradictory impacts of the substitution and income effects that are primarily reflected in the client interest rates. This fact may clarify most of the interest rate-savings rate puzzle.","PeriodicalId":45324,"journal":{"name":"Prague Economic Papers","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2020-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138531099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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