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Japan Center for Economic Research 日本经济研究中心
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-11 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12415
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引用次数: 0
Comment on “What the Welfare State Left Behind—Securing the Capability to Move for the Vulnerable” 评“福利国家留下了什么——保障弱势群体行动能力”
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-04 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12413
Keisuke Kawata
<p>Gotoh and Kambayashi (<span>2022</span>) tackle important topics, including proposing a new measurement of human welfare and capturing some of the problems under COVID-19. Their measurement is based on the capability approach, and it is their ultimate goal to reexamine the transformation of publicness in contemporary Japan.</p><p>I agree that Gotoh and Kambayashi's paper can significantly contribute to economic research, especially empirical welfare analysis (Fleurbaey, <span>2009</span>; Saez & Stantcheva, <span>2016</span>; Fleurbaey & Maniquet, <span>2018</span>). Moreover, their paper can provide an important perspective to discussing public policies.</p><p>In particular, it is a unique and good idea to apply the capability approach to the “the stay-home policy.” Gotoh and Kambayashi's data is for older respondents with COVID-19, who may be seriously affected by the pandemic, and their capability is mostly damaged. I think both the policy and data are relevant to the capability approach.</p><p>However, I strongly suggest that Gotoh and Kambayashi improve the transparency of their methods and findings because some parts of the current version are unclear and not self-contained. I believe research transparency is especially important in the general-interest and policy journals, including the <i>Asian Economic Policy Review</i>. Moreover, transparency can increase the social impact of this important paper.</p><p>I have five specific comments. First, their main contribution is to evaluate human welfare by unique measurement connecting publicness and the capability approach. I think this measurement is a reasonable alternative to traditional welfare measurement (for example, income and consumption). However, I cannot find a clear discussion about the relevance of publicness and the capability approach. Those concepts may not be familiar to potential readers, and Gotoh and Kambayashi should then explicitly discuss why the capability approach is relevant for discussing and measuring publicness.</p><p>Second, I guess Gotoh and Kambayashi's paper is not a purely theoretical paper proposing new welfare measurement; measuring contemporary Japan is also an important research goal. However, while the measurement concepts are explained in detail, I can only find a poor explanation of their data. They should provide more information about the data and then discuss the uncertainty of measurement results due to the incompleteness of the data. I guess another paper (Kambayashi <i>et al</i>., <span>2022</span>) provides a detailed explanation, but the present paper should include an explanation of important information, at least the sample size, the sampling method, and missing values. That information is especially important to evaluate the reliability of their empirical results. Additionally, I prefer researchers to report sampling uncertainly (for example, standard errors or confidence intervals).</p><p>Third, Gotoh and Kambayashi's introduction p
Gotoh和Kambayashi(2022)处理了重要话题,包括提出一种新的人类福利衡量方法,并捕捉新冠肺炎下的一些问题。他们的衡量是基于能力方法的,重新审视当代日本公共性的转变是他们的最终目标。我同意后藤和Kambayashi的论文可以对经济研究,特别是实证福利分析做出重大贡献(Fleurbey,2009;Saez和Stantcheva,2016;Fleurbey&;Maniquet,2018)。此外,他们的论文可以为讨论公共政策提供一个重要的视角。特别是,将能力方法应用于“居家政策”是一个独特而好的想法。Gotoh和Kambayashi的数据适用于患有新冠肺炎的老年受访者,他们可能会受到疫情的严重影响,他们的能力大多受损。我认为政策和数据都与能力方法相关。然而,我强烈建议Gotoh和Kambayashi提高他们的方法和调查结果的透明度,因为当前版本的某些部分不清楚,也不完整。我认为研究透明度在包括《亚洲经济政策评论》在内的公众利益和政策期刊中尤为重要。此外,透明度可以增加这篇重要论文的社会影响。我有五点具体意见。首先,他们的主要贡献是通过将公共性和能力方法联系起来的独特测量来评估人类福利。我认为这种衡量是对传统福利衡量(例如收入和消费)的合理替代。然而,我找不到关于公共性的相关性和能力方法的明确讨论。潜在读者可能不熟悉这些概念,Gotoh和Kambayashi应该明确讨论为什么能力方法与讨论和衡量公众性相关。其次,我认为后藤和Kambayashi的论文并不是一篇提出新福利衡量的纯粹理论论文;衡量当代日本也是一个重要的研究目标。然而,虽然对测量概念进行了详细解释,但我只能发现对其数据的解释很差。他们应该提供更多关于数据的信息,然后讨论由于数据不完整而导致的测量结果的不确定性。我想另一篇论文(Kambayashi et al.,2022)提供了详细的解释,但本论文应该包括对重要信息的解释,至少包括样本量、采样方法和缺失值。这些信息对于评估其实证结果的可靠性尤其重要。此外,我更喜欢研究人员报告抽样的不确定性(例如,标准误差或置信区间)。第三,Gotoh和Kambayashi的介绍提出了两个研究问题:(1)为什么日本政府不能迅速采取精确的政策,以及(2)我们如何阻止这种将弱势群体抛在福利国家后面的政策?我同意这两个问题的重要性,但我没有找到这些问题的明确答案。关于问题(1),他们的结论是,“我们对这个问题的初步答案是:这个问题与公共援助系统在最低生活水平和受助人数方面缓慢但显著地缩减有关。”然而,尚不清楚哪些实证结果与这一说法相关。此外,我找不到任何部分来回答问题(2)。请注意,我只要求部分答案,而不是“明确的答案”,因为他们的研究问题很难。第四,Gotoh和Kambayashi应该讨论他们实证研究结果的外部有效性。引言说,“新冠肺炎下出现的现象是那些长期存在于社会中的现象。”我也认为这是一个好主意,但要求更清楚地讨论他们的发现对新冠肺炎的外部(长期)影响。外部有效性对本文尤其重要,因为他们的实证分析侧重于患有新冠肺炎的老年受访者,但论文的动机是长期现象(例如,日本公共援助体系的长期转型)。我的第五点也是最后一点评论是一个更具技术性的观点。他们的测量侧重于三组设置。他们为什么选择三组有任何理由或正当理由吗?此外,测量是否可以扩展到更多的群体?如果这个概念可以应用于更普遍的环境中,它也可以应用于更多的实证工作中。此外,最好在经验环境中(残疾、护理使用者和普通老年人)为群体定义提供理由。我同意这个定义是合理的,但清晰的讨论可以帮助读者获得更深入的理解。
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引用次数: 1
Comment on “Social Justice and Affirmative Action in Malaysia: The New Economic Policy after 50 Years” 评《马来西亚的社会正义与平权行动:50后的新经济政策》 年份”
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12411
Kwame Sundaram Jomo
<p>Any meaningful assessment of Malaysia's New Economic Policy (NEP) (Lee, <span>2022</span>) should be historical. One question which arises here is how one does historical political economy. After all, there are many different schools of political economy, even if few have addressed “affirmative action.”</p><p>A key question is how one treats normative issues that inevitably come up. How one understands notions such as “social justice” has long been contested. These are often understood and invoked very differently. And how is a term such as “affirmative action”, which arose in response to US civil rights struggles in the middle of the 20th century, to be understood in other contexts?</p><p>When first announced to the Malaysian nation in mid-1971, the NEP was presented as being needed for building “national unity” following the divisive events of May 1969. The NEP has often been presented officially and by others as responding to “race riots” following the young nation's third general elections in which the incumbent multi-ethnic Alliance coalition lost its electoral majority. This perspective implies inter-ethnic economic disparities were responsible for “May 1969”.</p><p>Anand's (<span>1982</span>) Theil decomposition suggests that less than a tenth of overall income inequality in 1970 (before the NEP) could not be explained by various non-ethnic factors such as education. Anand concludes that, at most, only a corresponding share of income inequality can be attributed to ethnicity. His analysis implies there is limited scope for reducing overall income inequality by reducing inter-ethnic disparities. The NEP's primarily ethnic focus for over half a century is hence unlikely to significantly lower economic inequality in Malaysia. Unsurprisingly, despite over half a century of the NEP, total income inequality remains high, even if underestimated.</p><p>Equating “social justice” with efforts to reduce inter-ethnic disparities is problematic. Supported by and responsive to the newly emerging Malay “middle class”, the new Malaysian regime defined “restructuring society” as one of the two NEP targets. This has been mainly understood as “positive discrimination”, or affirmative action, along ethnic lines, to eliminate the identification of “race” with “economic function”.</p><p>Defining social justice in terms of achieving affirmative action policy is problematic. Such a definition also effectively rejects other possible interpretations of “social justice”, for example, in terms of “abolishing class exploitation”, or achieving low income or wealth inequality, or reducing disparities among different regions.</p><p>Sabah and Sarawak state rights within the Malaysian federation did not preoccupy Prime Minister Razak during 1969–1971. However, this omission in the NEP's ostensible social justice agenda is probably not acceptable to East Malaysians who believe they have not gotten a fair deal from the demographic majority in Peninsular Malaysia. Others m
毕竟,在1971年,拉扎克已经设想了一个拥有全面和普遍社会保障的马来西亚国家。
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引用次数: 1
Comment on “What the Welfare State Left behind: Securing the Capability to Move for the Vulnerable” 评“福利国家留下了什么:确保为弱势群体行动的能力”
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12410
Cassey Lee
<p>The Covid-19 pandemic has increased poverty and inequality within and across countries (Narayan <i>et al</i>., <span>2022</span>). The World Bank (<span>2020</span>) has estimated that between 88 million and 115 million more people moved into extreme poverty globally in 2020. Some countries fared worse situations than others because of the weak responses from governments in terms of the adequacy of the health system, the vaccination rollout, as well as the deployment of fiscal resources to support households and businesses. The need for urgent economic policy responses to the pandemic and its consequences has also resulted in the use of interventions that were primarily based on consumption and income metrics. Such policies are likely to be more effective had they incorporated the notion of human capabilities, a concept in the capability approach to inequality.</p><p>Gotoh and Kambayashi (<span>2022</span>) apply the capability approach to help us understand why and how physical mobility should matter in formulating policies that are aimed to support persons that are vulnerable in terms of being disabled, requiring nursing care and the elderly. Several analytical and empirical innovations are required to do this.</p><p>A theoretical framework is first constructed to analyze differences in the level of capability across groups (in terms of vulnerability—disabled, in nursing care and the elderly) which are then further divided into sub-groups in terms of different (discrete) degrees of physical mobility (going-out/staying-home). Associated with these sub-groups is a vector of individual functioning (with each element indexed by vulnerability and mobility). To provide a quantitative measure of how mobility affects functioning, a vector of maximum attainable level of functioning based on different mobility levels is constructed. The “damage” associated with different combinations of vulnerability and mobility can be derived by computing the difference between the maximal functioning vector and each sub-group's functioning vector (via a Euclidean distance function).</p><p>The empirical innovations in Gotoh and Kambayashi (<span>2022</span>) entail the implementation of surveys to collect information on the sets of utilization ability and functioning. This leads to an assessment of how human capabilities are relatively affected across the different types of vulnerability and levels of physical mobility. Although not emphasized by Gotoh and Kambayashi but much emphasized in the capability approach literature, the freedom interpretation of capabilities is very important.</p><p>A significant contribution of Gotoh and Kambayashi (<span>2022</span>) is providing an example of how an empirically grounded approach based on the capability approach can be used in formulating policies that are aimed at improving the lives of the vulnerable during the Covid pandemic. One can further argue that the scope of the application of the capability approach to inequali
新冠肺炎大流行加剧了各国内部和各国之间的贫困和不平等(Narayan et al.,2022)。世界银行(2020)估计,2020年全球又有8800万至1.15亿人陷入极端贫困。一些国家的情况比其他国家更糟,因为政府在卫生系统的充分性、疫苗接种以及支持家庭和企业的财政资源部署方面反应不力。对疫情及其后果采取紧急经济政策的必要性也导致了主要基于消费和收入指标的干预措施的使用。如果这些政策纳入了人的能力的概念,这是解决不平等问题的能力方法中的一个概念,那么这些政策可能会更加有效。Gotoh和Kambayashi(2022)应用能力方法来帮助我们理解在制定旨在支持残疾人、需要护理的人和老年人的政策时,身体灵活性为什么以及如何重要。要做到这一点,需要进行一些分析和实证创新。首先构建了一个理论框架来分析不同群体能力水平的差异(就脆弱性而言——残疾人、护理人员和老年人),然后根据不同(离散)的身体活动程度(外出/呆在家里)将这些群体进一步分为亚组。与这些子组相关的是个体功能的载体(每个元素都以脆弱性和流动性为索引)。为了提供流动性如何影响功能的定量测量,构建了一个基于不同流动性水平的最大可达到功能水平的向量。与脆弱性和流动性的不同组合相关的“损害”可以通过计算最大功能向量和每个子组的功能向量之间的差异(通过欧几里得距离函数)得出。Gotoh和Kambayashi(2022)的经验创新需要实施调查,以收集利用能力和功能。这导致了对不同类型的脆弱性和身体活动水平对人类能力的相对影响的评估。虽然Gotoh和Kambayashi没有强调,但在能力方法文献中却强调了很多,对能力的自由解释是非常重要的。Gotoh和Kambayashi(2022)的一个重要贡献是提供了一个例子,说明如何在制定旨在改善新冠肺炎大流行期间弱势群体生活的政策时,使用基于能力方法的实证方法。人们可以进一步争辩说,能力方法在不平等问题上的应用范围确实非常广泛。这是因为人类的活动和能力有很多方面,包括各种类型的优势和弱点,这些优势和弱点不仅会在个人的一生中发生变化,还会受到技术变化的影响(技术变化会改变功能的所有元素——商品特征映射和利用能力)解决不平等问题的能力方法是设计和实施旨在收集有关人类能力信息的调查。这应该利用物联网等新技术,这些技术能够收集实时信息,从而揭示健康的各个方面,如身体流动性和与他人的互动。Gotoh和Kambayashi(2022)深入探讨了基于能力方法的政策干预对不平等的潜力。
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引用次数: 1
Comment on “Social Justice and Affirmative Action in Malaysia: The New Economic Policy after 50 Years” 评《马来西亚的社会正义与平权行动:50后的新经济政策》 年份”
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-26 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12412
Muhammed Abdul Khalid
<p>The debate on affirmative action and the New Economic Policy (NEP) in Malaysia is controversial, and often attracts mixed and emotional responses to its relevance and achievements. Lee (<span>2022</span>) is an attempt to reset the affirmative action agenda in Malaysia by anchoring it on the principles of equality and fairness, and deserves serious consideration by policy makers.</p><p>Some of the key points of Lee (<span>2022</span>) are worth highlighting. First, the NEP policy design has unintended deficiencies. While the first prong of the policy (the reduction of poverty) has a specific target of reducing the poverty rate from 49% in 1970 to 16% in 1990, the targets for the second prong, the “restructuring of society,” are omitted, apart from increasing Bumiputera equity ownership to 30% by 1990. Other indicators, such as participation in higher education and professional occupations, were overlooked. The 20-year timeframe set for the policy is also impractical.</p><p>Second, public discourse often misguidedly portrays the NEP as a zero-sum game. The “terminate or continue” debate ignores the fact that the policy enjoys support from the Bumiputera community, and it is politically impractical to terminate it without political negotiations, at the same time disruptive to the recipients. While the argument that given the majority of the poor are Bumiputera and thus focusing on need-based would still help predominately Bumiputera, it “errs in viewing the NEP's two prongs as substitutes rather than complements.” Race-based and need-based policies are complements, not replacements.</p><p>Third, the focus of the NEP during the past decade has been mostly on the bottom 40% of households (irrespective of race) via mostly a cash transfer program and on micro and small enterprises, which are targeted mostly for the Bumiputera. The group-targeted policies have expanded beyond Bumiputera to include Indians, Orang Asli, women, and marginalized groups.</p><p>Fourth. Lee (<span>2022</span>) proposes that the policy be anchored on the principle of equality, and fairness to targeted groups. Lee also correctly argues that any policy changes to the NEP must go beyond household income.</p><p>However, there are some issues that warrant explanation or elaboration in Lee (<span>2022</span>). First, while it is generally assumed that the Bumiputera agenda started with the NEP, actually the pro-Malay economic agenda began during the latter part of the colonial period. The first official attempt by the British colonial government to address the Malay economic backwardness was institutionalized in the Draft Development Plan (1950–1955) It continued in the First Five-Year Malaya Plan (1956–1960), which included setting up the Federal Land Development Authority in 1956 to address poverty, especially among the landless Malays. The Malay-focus of the economic agenda by the British was a deliberate strategy to ensure that Malay nationalism post-independence would not nat
在马来西亚,关于平权行动和新经济政策的辩论是有争议的,并且经常引起对其相关性和成就的复杂和情绪化的反应。Lee(2022)试图通过将马来西亚的平权行动议程锚定在平等和公平的原则上来重置该议程,值得政策制定者认真考虑。李(2022)的一些要点值得强调。首先,《国家环境政策》的政策设计存在意想不到的缺陷。虽然该政策的第一个方面(减贫)有一个具体目标,即将贫困率从1970年的49%降低到1990年的16%,但除了到1990年将土著人的股权所有权提高到30%之外,第二个方面“社会结构调整”的目标被省略了。其他指标,如参与高等教育和专业职业,被忽视了。为该政策设定的20年时间框架也是不切实际的。第二,公共话语经常错误地将《国家环境政策》描绘成一场零和游戏。“终止还是继续”的辩论忽略了一个事实,即该政策得到了土著社区的支持,在没有政治谈判的情况下终止该政策在政治上是不切实际的,同时会破坏接受者。尽管考虑到大多数穷人是土著人,因此关注基于需求的政策仍将主要有助于土著人,但它“错误地将《国家环境政策》的两个方面视为替代而非补充。”基于种族和基于需求的政策是补充,而不是替代。第三,在过去十年中,《国家环境政策》的重点主要是通过现金转移计划针对底层40%的家庭(不分种族),以及主要针对土著人的微型和小型企业。针对群体的政策已经扩展到土著以外,包括印度人、奥兰阿斯利人、妇女和边缘化群体。第四Lee(2022)提出,该政策应基于平等和对目标群体公平的原则。李还正确地认为,任何对《新经济政策》的政策改变都必须超越家庭收入。然而,李(2022)中有一些问题值得解释或阐述。首先,虽然人们普遍认为土著议程始于《新经济政策》,但实际上亲马来的经济议程始于殖民时期的后半段。英国殖民政府解决马来经济落后问题的第一次正式尝试在《发展计划草案》(1950–1955)中制度化。它在《马来亚第一个五年计划》(1956–1960)中继续进行,其中包括1956年成立联邦土地开发局,以解决贫困问题,尤其是无地马来人的贫困问题。英国人经济议程中的马来重点是一项深思熟虑的战略,以确保独立后的马来民族主义不会将英国在马来亚的商业利益国有化。其次,尽管对土著人拥有的中小企业发展的关注必须以能力和竞争力为基础,这一点至关重要,但对土著人在经济中的参与、控制和所有权设定一个替代指标并非完全错误。土著人30%的企业所有权目标是实现这一目标的一种手段,目的是创造一个与其他人同等的土著人商业和工业阶层。同样重要的是要承认,《国家环境政策》关于资本所有权的政策已经严重减少,自20世纪80年代以来,出口导向型公司没有股权要求,自90年代末以来,具有多媒体超级走廊地位的公司也没有股权要求。2009年,对上市公司确保Bumi 30%股权的要求已降至上市时实收股本的12.5%。关键的土著人资产管理机构PNB自2000年以来也允许非土著人认购其部分单位信托计划。第三,Lee正确地指出,NEP需要超越收入,收入差距已经缩小,几乎与土著人持平。然而,尽管相对收入差距很重要,但绝对收入差距同样重要。尽管土著人和非土著人之间的相对收入差距已经缩小,但绝对收入差距正在扩大。与20世纪90年代相比,2019年土著人和中国人的收入差距中值进一步扩大到四倍。关于相对和绝对收入不平等的简短讨论将增加另一个视角。第四,尽管平等概念很重要,但公平对于确保包容性增长和不让任何人掉队也至关重要。鉴于起点和挑战不平等,机会平等是不够的;结果平等也是必要的。看看这些概念如何融入李关于社会正义和平权行动的新框架,会很有趣。
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引用次数: 1
Comment on “Income and Wealth Inequality in Asia and the Pacific: Trends, Causes, and Policy Remedies” 评“亚太地区收入和财富不平等:趋势、原因和政策补救”
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-21 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12409
Li Gan
<p>I agree with Zhuang (<span>2022</span>) in his summary assessments of the negative effects of income inequality. Zhuang (<span>2022</span>) includes a section on the inequality in China, so I would like to focus my comments on this section, and particularly on the working-age households in China.</p><p>Most of the inequality measures cited in Zhang's paper and in other studies are from OECD or World Bank calculations. China's measures come from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Unfortunately, it is difficult to decompose NBS' measures since the micro-level data used by the NBS are not publicly available.</p><p>Fortunately, there are several large-scale academic household surveys that are available – one of them is the China Household Income Project, led by Zhuang's coauthor on other occasions, Shi Li from Zhejiang University. My analysis here is partially based on another survey, the China Household Finance Survey, that I am the lead investigator for.</p><p>Zhuang (<span>2022</span>) discusses income inequality decade-wise since the 1980s. I would like to list the biennial changes of income inequality since 2010. Table 1 lists the P90/P50 ratios between 2010–2018. According to Table 1, inequality decreased slightly, from 3.65 to 3.28, between 2010 and 2018. However, working-age households did not see much change in these ratios, while families with retired people (at least one person in the family is older than 60) see a significant drop in inequality, from 5.09 to 3.21.</p><p>To understand the reason for this, we compare government transfers to the elderly in the form of pension payments, and government transfers to working-age households. The former includes payments to retirees covered by both the Basic Employee Pension Insurance and the Resident Pension Insurance. The latter includes payments from all social assistance programs, such as unemployment benefits and <i>Dibao</i> payments.</p><p>According to the official statistics, the percentage of pension payments to gross domestic product (GDP) more than doubled from 2.1% in 2010 to 5.4%, in 2019. Meanwhile, the percentage of social assistance to GDP decreased from 0.97% to 0.80%. The increase of social pension payments to GDP is a combination of rising benefits and rising numbers of retirees. The per capita pension payment was RMB 8144 in 2012, and RMB 18,958 in 2020 with an annual growth rate of 11.1%. Meanwhile, nominal per capita GDP only grew 7.74% annually. This is because of the differences in social spending, and the reduction in income inequality among elderly in China while income inequality among working-age families is stagnant.</p><p>Figure 1 indicates China's social spending relative to other countries. The left panel plots total pension payments as a percentage of GDP, relative to its GDP per capita. This panel shows that China's pension payments are on par with the projected world average indicated by a regression line. However, the right panel of Figure 1 plots the s
我同意庄(2022)对收入不平等负面影响的总结评估。庄(2022)有一节是关于中国的不平等,所以我想把我的评论集中在这一节上,特别是中国的劳动年龄家庭。张的论文和其他研究中引用的大多数不平等指标都来自经合组织或世界银行的计算。中国的数据来自国家统计局。不幸的是,由于国家统计局使用的微观数据尚未公开,因此很难分解国家统计局的衡量标准。幸运的是,有几项大规模的学术家庭调查可用,其中之一是由庄的合著者、浙江大学的施力领导的中国家庭收入项目。我在这里的分析部分基于另一项调查,中国家庭金融调查,我是该调查的首席调查员。庄(2022)讨论了自20世纪80年代以来的收入不平等问题。我想列出自2010年以来收入不平等的两年变化情况。表1列出了2010-2018年间的P90/P50比率。根据表1,2010年至2018年间,不平等现象略有下降,从3.65降至3.28。然而,工作年龄家庭的这些比例没有太大变化,而有退休人员的家庭(家庭中至少有一人年龄超过60岁)的不平等现象显著下降,从5.09下降到3.21。为了理解原因,我们比较了政府以养老金支付的形式向老年人转移的资金和政府向工作年龄家庭转移的资金。前者包括支付给退休人员的基本职工养老保险和居民养老保险。后者包括所有社会援助项目的付款,如失业救济金和迪宝付款。根据官方统计数据,养老金支付占国内生产总值的比例从2010年的2.1%增加到2019年的5.4%,翻了一番多。与此同时,社会救助占GDP的比例从0.97%下降到0.80%。社会养老金支付占GDP的增加是福利增加和退休人数增加的综合作用。2012年,人均养老金支付额为8144元,2020年为18958元,年增长率为11.1%,而名义人均GDP年增长率仅为7.74%。这是因为社会支出的差异,以及中国老年人收入不平等的减少,而劳动年龄家庭的收入不平等却停滞不前。图1显示了中国相对于其他国家的社会支出。左侧面板将养老金支付总额绘制为GDP相对于人均GDP的百分比。该面板显示,中国的养老金支付与回归线所示的预计世界平均水平持平。然而,图1的右侧面板绘制了劳动年龄家庭的社会支出与其人均GDP的关系图,我们观察到中国的数字远低于预计的世界平均水平。图1显示,中国正在积极向老年人转移资金,但没有向劳动年龄家庭转移。我认为这主要是由于对社会福利制度后果的(错误)理解。官方文件显示,中国政府对“福利主义”深表怀疑。Xi主席最近指示政府“防止‘福利主义’陷阱”,将其作为实现“共同富裕”的关键要素之一(Xi,2021年8月21日,《求是》)。类似的声明多次出现在许多政府文件中。然而,大量文献令人信服地表明,如果转移金额不太大,“依赖福利的”基本上就不存在。在Banerjee等人(2017)中,发展中国家的社会援助并没有抑制工作,因为转移金额仅占消费的10%左右。美国第一个与新冠肺炎相关的政府计划《关怀法案》将失业救济金提高到比中等工人的劳动收入高47%。Petroksy Nadeau和Valletta(2021)发现,即使是这样的福利也不会激励人们辞职。这是因为与新冠肺炎相关的失业救济金只持续了几个月。因此,福利的现值不足以抑制工作。然而,文献证明,向工作年龄的穷人转移可以有效刺激消费(Gan et al.,2018)。社会转移也有利于家庭的人力资本积累(García&;Saavedra,2017)。这两种影响对中国经济现在和未来都至关重要。总之,减少中国收入不平等的关键是大幅增加对劳动年龄贫困人口的转移支付。然而,这样做需要揭开政府官员中普遍存在的“福利主义”的神秘面纱。
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引用次数: 0
What the Welfare State Left Behind—Securing the Capability to Move for the Vulnerable 福利国家留下了什么——确保弱势群体的行动能力
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-18 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12408
Reiko Gotoh, Ryo Kambayashi

The purpose of the present paper is to measure the disadvantage of the vulnerable in contemporary Japan, focusing on their capabilities in moving both outside and inside the home. Our research interest is to find a new informational base other than consumption expenditure, which provides a strong clue about how to assess the eligibility for social support. We examine theoretical methods to apply the capability approach empirically, extending existing multidimensional poverty measurements. We find that people with disabilities and nursing care users are significantly restricted in their capabilities. The elderly in general, whom we have used as a reference group, are also in a precarious situation.

本文的目的是衡量当代日本弱势群体的劣势,重点关注他们在家庭内外活动的能力。我们的研究兴趣是寻找一个除了消费支出之外的新的信息基础,这为如何评估社会支持的资格提供了强有力的线索。我们检验了实证应用能力方法的理论方法,扩展了现有的多维贫困测量。我们发现,残疾人和护理使用者的能力受到严重限制。我们将老年人作为参考群体,他们的处境也岌岌可危。
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引用次数: 3
Comment on “How Inequality Affects Trust in Institutions: Evidence from Indonesia” 关于“不平等如何影响对制度的信任:来自印度尼西亚的证据”的评论
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-08 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12407
Takayuki Higashikata
<p>Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. (<span>2022</span>) address the challenging task of identifying how income inequality affects trust in others, organizations, and institutions through a cross-section analysis of Indonesia. As previous studies have suggested, the extent of trust is considered an important factor for economic development, for example, by reducing transaction costs. This has led many social scientists to analyze the determinants of trust, but few studies have shed light on the impact of inequality on trust (Gustavsson & Jordahl, <span>2008</span>; Barone & Mocetti, <span>2016</span>). The importance of the topic seems to be even greater under the current Covid-19 pandemic. It has been noted that low trust in governments may lead to vaccine hesitancy (SAGE Working Group on Vaccine Hesitancy, <span>2014</span>), which might have lowered the coverage of Covid-19 vaccination in many countries.</p><p>In order to identify the effects of income inequality on various aspects of trust, Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. construct an impressive dataset comprising various surveys, such as the World Value Survey, the National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas), Village Census (PODES), and village-level data on estimated poverty and inequality (PovertyMap). Using the informative dataset, Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. reveal statistically significant negative correlations between district-level inequality and trust in political and state institutions. On the other hand, they also find that higher village-level inequality has a negative effect on trust in strangers. The estimation results are intuitively consistent, and Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. provide a useful perspective on the relationship between inequality and trust in Indonesia, though there appear to be some issues that still need to be cleared up.</p><p>First, their cross-section analysis might induce an endogeneity problem. Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. employ ordinary least squares results with reference to endogeneity test outcomes (Suryahadi <i>et al</i>.'s table A.2), which depend on the assumption that their instrumental variable is valid and strong. As Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. are cautious about the results of their analysis, I am still afraid that the inequality variables correlate with the error term (endogeneity). For example, I am concerned that Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. do not control for ethnic diversity among villages in the empirical specifications, while ethnic heterogeneity displays a strong negative correlation with the extent to which people trust each other (Gustavsson & Jordahl, <span>2008</span>; Jordahl, <span>2009</span>).</p><p>Second, in line with the literature, Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. assume that respondents are well acquainted with the objective level of income inequality in their districts and villages. In other words, this means that the subjective perception of inequality is supposed to coincide with, or at least be proportional to, the objective inequality index, but it seems quest
Suryahadi等人(2022)通过对印度尼西亚的横断面分析,解决了确定收入不平等如何影响对他人、组织和机构的信任这一具有挑战性的任务。正如先前的研究所表明的那样,信任程度被认为是经济发展的一个重要因素,例如通过降低交易成本。这导致许多社会科学家分析了信任的决定因素,但很少有研究揭示不平等对信任的影响(Gustavsson&;Jordahl,2008;Barone和Mocetti,2016)。在当前新冠肺炎大流行的情况下,这个话题的重要性似乎更大。人们注意到,对政府的信任度低可能会导致疫苗犹豫(SAGE疫苗犹豫工作组,2014),这可能降低了许多国家新冠肺炎疫苗接种的覆盖率。为了确定收入不平等对信任各个方面的影响,Suryahadi等人构建了一个令人印象深刻的数据集,包括各种调查,如世界价值调查、国家社会经济调查(Susenas)、村庄人口普查(PODES)和关于估计贫困和不平等的村级数据(PovertyMap)。Suryahadi等人利用信息数据集揭示了地区层面的不平等与对政治和国家机构的信任之间具有统计学意义的负相关性。另一方面,他们还发现,更高的村级不平等对陌生人的信任有负面影响。估计结果直观一致,Suryahadi等人对印度尼西亚的不平等和信任之间的关系提供了一个有用的视角,尽管似乎仍有一些问题需要澄清。首先,他们的横截面分析可能会引发内生性问题。Suryahadi等人参考内生性检验结果采用普通最小二乘法结果(Suryahady等人的表A.2),这取决于他们的工具变量是有效和强大的假设。由于Suryahadi等人对他们的分析结果持谨慎态度,我仍然担心不平等变量与误差项(内生性)相关。例如,我担心Suryahadi等人在实证规范中没有控制村庄之间的种族多样性,而种族异质性与人们相互信任的程度表现出强烈的负相关(Gustavsson&;Jordahl,2008;Jordohl,2009)。其次,与文献一致,Suryahadi等人假设受访者非常熟悉所在地区和村庄收入不平等的客观水平。换言之,这意味着对不平等的主观感知应该与客观的不平等指数一致,或者至少与之成比例,但做出这样一个简单的假设似乎值得怀疑。胡(2017)认为,客观不平等和主观不平等不相关,主观不平等与一般信任之间存在统计学意义上的非线性关系。第三,与上述评论相联系,似乎有考虑哪种不平等指数适合进行分析的余地。先前的研究除了使用基尼系数外,还使用了不平等指数,如百分位数、最高收入份额和对数的标准差,并表明估计结果可能对指标的选择敏感(Gustavsson&;Jordahl,2008)。如果印度尼西亚有这样的替代不平等指数,那么不妨尝试一下,以检查估计结果的稳健性。第四,Suryahadi等人显示,尽管2000年代印尼的基尼系数在全国范围内有所上升,但对政府组织和机构的信任在同一时期保持不变或略有增加(Suryahady等人的图3)。在时间序列数据中看到的差异和信任之间的这种简单关系似乎与他们的横断面分析结果形成了对比,横断面分析显示不平等和信任之间存在负相关。如果Suryahadi等人能够解释这一点的原因,那将是有用的。第五,与Zmerli和Castillo(2015)探索拉丁美洲案例相比,Suryahadi等人发现,更高的不平等与对中央政府的信任而不是对政党的信任之间存在负相关(Suryahady等人的图5)。这可能是由于模型规范的差异造成的,但如果Suryahadi等人能够详细说明差异背后的可能原因,那将是有益的。最后,他们未来的主要挑战之一将是寻找另一个合适的工具变量,使他们能够揭示不平等和信任之间的因果关系。他们构建的信息丰富的数据集将有可能识别因果推断并为文献做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Comment on “Siamese Twin Failures: Structural and Regulatory Transformations in Unequal Thailand” 评“暹罗双胞胎的失败:不平等的泰国的结构和监管变革”
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-09-05 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12406
Pasuk Phongpaichit
<p>Kanchoochat (<span>2022</span>) takes an institutional approach to explaining the persistence of inequality, poverty, and low growth rates in Thailand over recent decades. He focuses on two institutional transformations: a “structural transformation,” meaning a move away from agriculture, and a “regulatory transformation,” meaning efficiency-enhancing reforms in public administration, decentralization, anti-monopoly policies, and taxation. Kanchoochat argues that the high-growth countries of East Asia, especially Taiwan and South Korea, achieved these two transformations, resulting in higher growth and declining inequality, while Thailand has failed. This is a succinct, elegant, and original approach to an important issue.</p><p>On the structural transformation, Kanchoochat has excellent charts showing the extent of Thailand's failure compared to other Asian countries to move people out of agriculture and to improve productivity. He attributes this failure to two causes: government subsidies of inefficient agriculture, especially since the 1990s, and the continuing role of the farm as a form of social security in the absence of state provision. He suggests that ending subsidies and constructing a comprehensive social security system would overcome the problem. While I would welcome these reforms, I doubt they would achieve a “transformation,” because I think other factors are important in sustaining this inefficient agricultural sector. Most important of all, access to and use of land, the single most important input into agricultural production, is still lumbered with many restrictions. Around 60% of land is still ultimately controlled by government. Large areas are not available for economic use, and others have restrictions on their use (Cripps, <span>2020</span>). Without a far-reaching reform of the tenure system, the potential of agriculture will not be realized. Another restraining factor is the very low rate of public investment in agriculture over the long term.</p><p>On the regulatory transformation, Kanchoochat shows how moves toward democratization, decentralization, and progressive polices on tax and competition foundered on the intransigence of the “traditional elite,” meaning the military, and segments of the bureaucracy, professions, and politically connected entrepreneurs. This alliance created a new institutional framework featuring appointed bodies and the judicial system which blocked or reversed reforms. Kanchoochat argues that change requires a larger role for electoral institutions and a “new social contract” under which citizens will agree to pay more tax and entrepreneurs will be happy with less monopoly. But it is not clear what social forces might drive such changes.</p><p>Kanchoochat, following North, Aoki, and others, argues that institutions are created by human will to form a stable structure for the conduct of everyday life. According to this definition, institutions are susceptible to change but there is a tend
Kanchoochat(2022)采用了一种制度方法来解释泰国近几十年来持续存在的不平等、贫困和低增长率。他重点关注两个制度转型:一个是“结构转型”,意味着远离农业;另一个是《监管转型》,意味着提高公共行政、权力下放、反垄断政策和税收效率的改革。Kanchoochat认为,东亚的高增长国家,尤其是台湾和韩国,实现了这两个转变,导致了更高的增长和不断减少的不平等,而泰国却失败了。这是对一个重要问题的简洁、优雅和新颖的处理方法。关于结构转型,Kanchoochat有很好的图表显示了与其他亚洲国家相比,泰国在将人们从农业中转移出来和提高生产力方面的失败程度。他将这一失败归因于两个原因:政府对低效农业的补贴,特别是自20世纪90年代以来,以及在没有国家规定的情况下,农场作为一种社会保障形式的持续作用。他建议,终止补贴和建立一个全面的社会保障体系将克服这个问题。虽然我欢迎这些改革,但我怀疑它们能否实现“转型”,因为我认为其他因素对维持这个低效的农业部门很重要。最重要的是,作为农业生产最重要的一项投入,土地的获取和使用仍然受到许多限制。大约60%的土地最终仍由政府控制。大片地区不可用于经济用途,其他地区对其使用有限制(Cripps,2020)。如果不对土地保有制度进行意义深远的改革,农业的潜力将无法实现。另一个制约因素是长期来看农业公共投资率非常低。关于监管转型,Kanchoochat展示了民主化、权力下放以及税收和竞争方面的进步政策是如何在“传统精英”(即军队、官僚机构、职业和有政治关系的企业家)的顽固态度下失败的。这个联盟建立了一个新的体制框架,其特点是任命机构和司法系统阻碍或逆转了改革。Kanchoochat认为,变革需要选举机构发挥更大的作用,需要一种“新的社会契约”,根据这种契约,公民将同意缴纳更多的税,企业家将乐于减少垄断。但目前尚不清楚是什么社会力量推动了这种变化。继诺斯、青木和其他人之后,Kanchoochat认为,制度是由人类意志创造的,以形成日常生活的稳定结构。根据这一定义,制度容易发生变化,但“一个自我维持的共同信仰体系”有一种趋势,阻碍了对未能履行职责的制度的改革。我主要担心的是,将机构视为关键参与者的解释引出了一个问题,即是什么社会力量塑造了这些机构,以及什么社会力量可能会改变这种情况。简言之,什么能扰乱“传统精英”的主导地位?他们似乎很乐意生活在效率低下的农业部门、效率低下的国家和高度不平等的环境中?
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引用次数: 0
Comment on “How Inequality Affects Trust in Institutions: Evidence from Indonesia” 关于“不平等如何影响对制度的信任:来自印度尼西亚的证据”的评论
IF 3.9 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-24 DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12405
Hal Hill
<p>Suryahadi <i>et al</i>. (<span>2022</span>) is an ambitious and innovative paper. Highlighting the importance of trust as a key ingredient in the process of economic and political development, the authors examine the impact of inequality on trust, and by extension institutions, at the village and district levels in Indonesia.</p><p>The paper has several distinctive features. First, the authors carefully disaggregate the concept of institutions, into economic, social, and political (“the state”) dimensions, plausibly conjecturing that each of these may have different behavioral relationships to the key variables of interest. Second, the analysis is also geographically disaggregated. This adds richness to the study given that Indonesia is the world's largest archipelagic state. Third, they introduce an intermediate variable in the analysis, education, finding that more highly educated individuals' trust in the political and state institutions is more sensitive to higher inequality.</p><p>The authors' main conclusions are reassuring. In general, the levels of trust are high (Suryahadi <i>et al</i>.'s figures 2 and 3), in some cases arguably higher than might have been expected, and mostly rising. Not surprisingly, trust is particularly high for social ties. Evidently, the village respondents are least trusting only toward “strangers.” Financial institutions enjoy high trust; one might surmise that the absence of any major bank crashes in Indonesia this century might contribute to this finding. Trust in governments and the civil service is very high, approaching 80% in 2018. This is perhaps a little unexpected given the endless “coffee shop” discussions of corruption. Nevertheless, in discussing their figure 5 the authors add an important qualifier, that “lower trust does not pertain to political institutions like elections or the parliament, but more on state apparatus.”</p><p>The exceptions to the conclusion of high trust include that across religious communities, not a major surprise in view of the country's occasional religious tensions, and some decline in the press and media, which is a global phenomenon in this era of proliferating “fake news.”</p><p>The finding that trust is comparatively high is also of interest given Indonesia's inequality outcomes. Historically expenditure inequality was moderately low, but it has risen significantly for much of this century. Not surprisingly, therefore, the authors conclude that keeping inequality “in check” is important for healthy institutional development.</p><p>I have several comments on this fine paper, which might be explored in future work on the subject. First, it would be interesting to set out some analytical “priors,” of what one might hypothesize to be the likely relationships. For example, Indonesia has had episodes of quite serious conflict over the past 50 years, including ongoing unrest in the two Papua provinces (which presumably were not in the survey). But they have generally been co
Suryahadi等人(2022)是一篇雄心勃勃的创新论文。作者强调了信任作为经济和政治发展过程中的一个关键因素的重要性,研究了不平等对印度尼西亚乡村和地区信任的影响,以及对信任制度的影响。首先,作者仔细地将制度的概念分解为经济、社会和政治(“国家”)维度,似乎推测每一个维度可能与感兴趣的关键变量有不同的行为关系。第二,分析也是按地域分类的。鉴于印度尼西亚是世界上最大的群岛国家,这为研究增加了丰富性。第三,他们在分析中引入了一个中间变量,即教育,发现受过高等教育的个人对政治和国家机构的信任对更高的不平等更敏感。作者的主要结论令人放心。总的来说,信任水平很高(Suryahadi等人的图2和图3),在某些情况下可以说比预期的要高,而且大多在上升。毫不奇怪,对社会关系的信任度特别高。显然,农村受访者最不信任“陌生人”。金融机构享有高度信任;有人可能会猜测,本世纪印尼没有发生任何重大银行倒闭事件,这可能是这一发现的原因之一。对政府和公务员的信任度非常高,2018年接近80%。考虑到无休止的“咖啡店”腐败讨论,这可能有点出乎意料。尽管如此,在讨论他们的图5时,作者添加了一个重要的限定词,即“较低的信任度与选举或议会等政治机构无关,而更多地与国家机构有关。”高度信任结论的例外情况包括跨宗教社区的信任,鉴于该国偶尔的宗教紧张局势,以及新闻和媒体的衰落,在这个“假新闻”泛滥的时代,这是一种全球现象。鉴于印尼的不平等结果,信任度相对较高的发现也令人感兴趣。从历史上看,支出不平等程度较低,但在本世纪的大部分时间里都在显著上升。因此,毫不奇怪,作者得出结论,“控制”不平等对健康的制度发展很重要。我对这篇优秀的论文有几点意见,可以在今后关于这一主题的工作中加以探讨。首先,列出一些分析性的“先验”会很有趣,人们可能会假设这是可能的关系。例如,印度尼西亚在过去50年中发生了相当严重的冲突 几年来,包括巴布亚两个省持续的动乱(可能不在调查中)。但它们总体上得到了控制,此外,报告的犯罪水平相当低。顺便说一句,冲突和犯罪这两个变量都可以作为中间变量引入分析中。此外,据推测,印度尼西亚在民主时代,即从1999年起,成功地举行了五次全国选举,其过程和结果大多是可信的,地方选举也是如此(在大多数情况下),这也为记录在案的高度信任提供了初步的支持。即使人们对各级政府的领导层感到不满,他们也知道他们可以在下次选举中投票淘汰他们(就像他们经常做的那样)。甚至可以推断,高信任水平是印度尼西亚在没有对其政治和社会结构造成重大压力的情况下应对新冠肺炎危机的一个因素。在这种情况下,作者记录说,新冠肺炎疫情加剧了印度尼西亚的不平等,尤其是非正规部门的工人。但总体而言,影响相对温和,重要的是,新冠肺炎约三分之二的负面影响通过政府的社会保护计划得到缓解。联系到论文的中心主题,他们可能想强调,这一重大成就可能是一个增强信任的结果,自20世纪70年代以来,除了亚洲金融危机期间,贫困人口几乎持续减少。第二组问题与世界价值调查(WVS)数据有关,这些数据用于生成论文最原始的实证贡献。印尼WVS数据是从对3200名成年人的采访中获得的,这些成年人在地理上分散,还根据教育、性别、年龄和地点(城市/农村)进行了识别。对于那些没有使用WVS数据的人(比如这位评论家)来说,对其起源和结构进行一些简短的评论会很有帮助。
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引用次数: 2
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Asian Economic Policy Review
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