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Modeling of the corporate capital structure 公司资本结构的建模
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-62-75
E. G. Demidova, E. Bogatov
The capital structure is determined by the ratio of the company’s own and borrowed funds. It has a direct impact on the financial stability of the company, profit and return on equity. Thus a reasonable calculation of the value of the specified ratio is an urgent problem for any large enterprise. The correct ratio of borrowed and own capital in the structure of the aggregate corporate capital will allow to provide the specified return from the use of own capital in changing market conditions. The methodology of optimizing the structure of capital proposed by the authors is based on a formula for increasing return on equity (ROE) as a function of three variables — return on sales (ROS), resource productivity (Y) and equity multiplier M. The interpretation of the DuPont model as a model with lagged variables is original, which allows to predict the change in the equity multiplier at the expense of possible increase in other variables: resource productivity and return on sales, provided that the return on equity will reach the target level. There have been obtained formulas which allow modeling the structure of capital that guarantees a given profitability. The heuristic principle based on the three-factor model of DuPont ROE = ROS×Y×M, was that keeping the return on equity at the same level (as compared with the reference period) should entail compensation for the multidirectional dynamics of return on sales, resource productivity and equity multiplier. The paper considers three variants of the dependence of changes in the ratio of equity and borrowed capital of the company: when resource productivity is unchanged (ΔY = 0), when return on sales is unchanged (ΔROS = 0) and when both indicators change simultaneously (ΔY ≠ 0 and ΔROS ≠ 0). The methodology presented by the authors also allows to calculate the structure of capital which would provide a given level of return on equity ROE based on the forecast of return on assets ROS and return on sales Y with reference to the values of ROS and Y calculated in the reference period. We present the testing of this algorithm (in all three variants) on the basis of the reporting data of one of the metallurgical companies of Russia for the period 2017—2019.
资本结构由公司自有资金和借入资金的比例决定。它直接影响到公司的财务稳定性、利润和净资产收益率。因此,如何合理计算这一指标的价值,是任何一家大型企业都迫切需要解决的问题。在公司总资本的结构中,正确的借入资本和自有资本的比例将允许在不断变化的市场条件下使用自有资本提供指定的回报。作者提出的优化资本结构的方法是基于一个公式来增加股本回报率(ROE)作为三个变量的函数-销售回报率(ROS),资源生产率(Y)和股权乘数m。杜邦模型作为一个具有滞后变量的模型的解释是原创的,它允许以牺牲其他变量的可能增加为代价来预测股权乘数的变化:资源生产率和销售回报率,前提是股本回报率将达到目标水平。已经获得了一些公式,可以对保证给定盈利能力的资本结构进行建模。基于杜邦ROE = ROS×Y×M三因素模型的启发式原则是,保持净资产收益率在同一水平(与参考期相比)需要补偿销售收益率、资源生产率和权益乘数的多向动态。本文考虑了公司权益比率与借款资本变动关系的三种变体:当资源生产率不变(ΔY = 0),当销售利润率不变(ΔROS = 0),当两个指标同时改变(ΔY≠0和ΔROS≠0),作者提出的方法还允许计算的资本结构将提供一个给定水平的股本回报率ROE基于预测的资产回报率ROS和销售利润率Y参照ROS和Y的值计算的参考。我们根据俄罗斯一家冶金公司2017-2019年期间的报告数据,对该算法(所有三种变体)进行了测试。
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引用次数: 0
Wages, age, and economic growth: Estimates for Russia 工资、年龄和经济增长:对俄罗斯的估计
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-94-116
A. Zamnius, A. Polbin, S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
We study the dependence of wages on ages of individuals based on RLMS-HSE microdata for individuals aged 25—55 years for the period 2000— 2019 in Russia. A quadratic dependence of wages on the age of an individual is assumed for cross-sectional models, while shifts of cross-sectional wage profiles over time are described by the dynamics of the gross regional product. The model parameters are estimated for different social groups, separated by gender and educational level, based on a model with random effects, which allows us to obtain the most effective parameter estimates based on both within-group and between-group variation in the data. The estimates obtained can be used in calibration of general equilibrium models with overlapping generations. We touch upon the problem of reducing wages in ages close to retirement and discuss possible reasons for this decrease. We also estimate minimal economic growth rates, forcing the wage rates to increase until the individual reaches the ages of 55, 60 and 65.
我们基于俄罗斯2000-2009年期间25-55岁个人的RLMS-HSE微观数据,研究了工资对个人年龄的依赖性。横截面模型假设工资与个人年龄的二次依赖性,而横截面工资随时间的变化则由地区生产总值的动态来描述。模型参数是根据具有随机效应的模型为不同的社会群体估计的,按性别和教育水平划分,这使我们能够根据数据中的组内和组间差异获得最有效的参数估计。所获得的估计值可用于具有重叠世代的一般均衡模型的校准。我们谈到了在接近退休年龄降低工资的问题,并讨论了这一下降的可能原因。我们还估计了最低经济增长率,迫使工资率上升,直到个人达到55岁、60岁和65岁。
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引用次数: 0
Authorship capital and reforming the Russian publication system 作者资本与俄罗斯出版体制改革
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-138-158
V. N. Polterovich
The article is devoted to the problem of improving the governance of publication systems, within which their actors interact in producing scientific publications, supplying them to readers, as well as in funding and coordinating corresponding processes. It is emphasized that the ownership of a scientific text includes two components: the right to a monetary reward for the use of the article by the consumer and authorship. The first component can be passed to another person, but the second cannot. Authorship is the basis for building up an individual intangible asset, which we call authorship capital. The desire to increase it determines the dual role of the author in the publication system: he is not only a producer of the knowledge embodied in the article, but also, along with the reader, its ultimate consumer. The dual role of the journal is also noted, which, organizing the review process, turns out to be not only a supplier of articles, but also a producer of knowledge. These two features give rise to a variety of possible financing schemes for publishing systems. The specific features of knowledge as a private and public good are analyzed. One of them is the high cost of knowledge consumption. Due to this and a number of other circumstances, the market model for financing publication systems is inefficient; the most important task is the transition to open access. Such a transition should be accompanied by improved methods for evaluating the performance of researchers and the quality of journals. The comparison of large groups of objects (e. g., journals or research institutions) is inevitably based on citation indicators, while expertise can play only a supporting role. On the contrary, when it comes to making decisions within a small group, e. g., when allocating given funds among laboratory members, expert evaluations must play a decisive role. The directions of reform of the Russian publication system are discussed, ensuring the reduction of rent-seeking activity and increasing the adequacy of the indicators used.
这篇文章致力于改善出版系统的治理问题,在出版系统中,出版系统的参与者在制作科学出版物、向读者提供科学出版物以及资助和协调相应的过程中进行互动。有人强调,科学文本的所有权包括两个组成部分:消费者使用文章获得金钱奖励的权利和作者权。第一个组件可以传递给另一个人,但第二个组件不能。作者是建立个人无形资产的基础,我们称之为作者资本。增加知识的愿望决定了作者在出版系统中的双重角色:他不仅是文章中所包含知识的生产者,而且与读者一起,是文章的最终消费者。期刊的双重作用也被注意到,在组织审查过程中,它不仅是文章的提供者,而且是知识的生产者。这两个特点产生了各种可能的出版系统融资方案。分析了知识作为私人和公共产品的具体特征。其中之一就是知识消费的高成本。由于这一点和其他一些情况,出版系统融资的市场模式效率低下;最重要的任务是向开放访问过渡。这种转变应该伴随着改进评估研究人员表现和期刊质量的方法。对大量对象(如期刊或研究机构)的比较不可避免地基于引用指标,而专业知识只能起到辅助作用。相反,当涉及到在一个小团体内做出决定时,例如,在实验室成员之间分配特定资金时,专家评估必须发挥决定性作用。讨论了俄罗斯出版制度改革的方向,确保减少寻租活动,提高所用指标的充分性。
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引用次数: 0
Comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of social security regional financial models in Russia based on the DEA method 基于DEA方法的俄罗斯社会保障区域财政模式有效性综合分析
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-117-137
M. Dorofeev
The problems of financial regulation of poverty and income inequality in Russia are widely discussed in the scientific literature. One of the important aspects in this area is efficiency assessment, which should be the basis for developing solutions that contribute to the growth of the Russian population welfare. This article develops a comprehensive methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the system of state financial regulation of poverty and income inequality In Russian regions on the basis of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method and regression analysis. The information base contains the indicators of socioeconomic development of Russian regions for the period from 2017 to 2021. The analysis algorithm of the technical efficiency of budget expenditures on social policy has been developed and tested. The research novelty is the application of the DEA method taking into account the theory of regulation of income inequality by F. Bourguignon. The paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the regions’ efficiency and identifies the determinants of the efficiency indicators: the size of the regional economy and the level of income per capita; the share of poor citizens in the region; indicators of regional demographic development (fertility, mortality), etc.
科学文献中广泛讨论了俄罗斯贫困和收入不平等的金融监管问题。这一领域的一个重要方面是效率评估,这应该是制定有助于俄罗斯人口福利增长的解决方案的基础。本文在数据包络分析(DEA)方法和回归分析的基础上,开发了一种评估俄罗斯地区贫困和收入不平等国家金融监管体系有效性的综合方法。该信息库包含2017年至2021年期间俄罗斯各地区的社会经济发展指标。开发并测试了社会政策预算支出技术效率分析算法。这项研究的新颖之处在于,考虑到F.Bourguignon的收入不平等调节理论,应用了DEA方法。该文件对各区域的效率进行了全面评估,并确定了效率指标的决定因素:区域经济规模和人均收入水平;该地区贫困公民的比例;区域人口发展指标(生育率、死亡率)等。
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引用次数: 1
Institutional response after technological changes in telecommunications 电信技术变革后的制度反应
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-07 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-5-50-67
A. Shastitko, К. A. Ionkina
Imbalances in law enforcement require some alternatives for an institutional response to challenges. Telecommunications is an example industry where technological changes in the environment condition the need to adjust approaches for implementing antitrust tools for competition protection. The article deals with the discussion regarding the choice of structural alternatives for the framework of telecommunications (the institutional framework of this industry). The paper reveals the characteristics of competing alternatives: deregulation (regulation “pending”), economic regulation, reconfiguration of antitrust taking into account the limitations on the side of the regulator. It is shown that the solutions proposed on the basis of the Austrian school of economics and Pigouvian ideas are easily accessible in the framework of public discussions. This is why the economic regulation or deregulation are the most promising directions in the field of public policy. The Coasian approach requires better knowledge of the subject and allows to take into account the limitations on the side of the regulator, however, it is not likely to be accepted. At the same time, this approach provides a wider range of tools as a condition for the adaptive effectiveness of regulation.
执法方面的不平衡需要一些替代办法,以便在体制上应对挑战。电信业就是一个例子,在这个行业中,环境中的技术变化使得需要调整执行反垄断工具以保护竞争的方法。本文讨论了关于电信框架(该行业的制度框架)结构选择的讨论。本文揭示了竞争替代方案的特征:放松管制(“未决”监管)、经济监管、考虑监管方限制的反垄断重组。研究表明,在奥地利经济学派和庇古思想的基础上提出的解决方案很容易在公共讨论的框架中获得。这就是为什么经济管制或放松管制是公共政策领域最有希望的方向。科斯的方法需要对主题有更好的了解,并允许考虑监管机构方面的限制,然而,它不太可能被接受。与此同时,这种方法提供了更广泛的工具,作为监管适应性有效性的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Federal transfers: Leeway to higher regional debt? 联邦转移:Leeway对更高的地区债务?
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-5-23-49
E. Timushev, A. Mikhaylova
The research focuses on the impact of substituting own revenues in Russian regions by federal intergovernmental transfers on the amount of public debt using the concept of vertical fiscal imbalance (VFI). Vertical imbalance emerges as a result of spending assignment exceeding revenue streams at the lower levels of the budgetary system. It leads to a lack of own revenues and creates risks of accumulating deficits and debt buildup. Vertical imbalance is analyzed as a whole and by its components — the deficit of a subject of the Russian Federation and the types of intergovernmental transfers. Shared revenue sources with sharing rates differentiating among regions and allotted at the discretion of regional authorities to local administrations are considered to be regional intergovernmental transfers as well. Quantitative analysis was carried out by panel regression with fixed effects of regions and observation periods based on the data for 2011—2020. It is found that vertical imbalance does not have a significant impact on the amount of debt, as federal intergovernmental transfers do not restrain growth of tax base or efficiency of spending, as laid out by the theory. We refer the low risk of negative consequences to the low powers of regions in generating revenues and big primary spending obligations.
该研究利用垂直财政失衡的概念,重点研究了联邦政府间转移支付取代俄罗斯地区自身收入对公共债务金额的影响。纵向失衡是由于预算系统较低级别的支出分配超过收入流而出现的。它导致自身收入不足,并产生累积赤字和债务积累的风险。纵向失衡是从整体及其组成部分进行分析的——俄罗斯联邦一个主体的赤字和政府间转移的类型。共享收入来源的共享率在各区域之间有所不同,并由区域当局酌情分配给地方行政部门,也被视为区域政府间转移。基于2011-2020年的数据,采用区域和观测期固定影响的面板回归进行定量分析。研究发现,纵向失衡对债务数额没有显著影响,因为正如该理论所述,联邦政府间转移不会抑制税基的增长或支出效率。我们将负面后果的低风险指的是各地区在创造收入和大额初级支出方面的低能力。
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引用次数: 0
Sanctions within the European Union 欧盟内部的制裁
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-5-148-160
M. Klinova, E. Sidorova
The article is devoted to the analysis of the practice of sanctions within the EU. Two groups of sanctions are identified — traditional ones, related to the country’s infringement of the main fiscal rules in the Economic and Monetary Union, and relatively new ones, related to non-compliance with the basic principles of the EU. This article’s attention is focused on the second group of measures, previously not studied in detail in the Russian scientific literature, which are aimed at resolving internal contradictions in the EU — between supranational structures and new Eastern European EU members. These are measures of financial nature in the form of freezing the EU funds payouts, although other measures are also envisaged. For these purposes, the conditionality mechanism has been fixed in 2020, providing for the dependence of payments from the EU funds on the respect of European norms and compliance with EU fundamental values. The ability to avoid blocking at the EU level decisions on sanctions against the violating country is also provided for. As a last resort, a sanction is fixed in the form of depriving the country of the voting rights in the EU Council. We conclude that it is possible to resolve problems without adoption of tough financial measures, by political will and by the institutional mechanisms for settling disagreements.
本文致力于分析欧盟内部的制裁实践。确定了两组制裁——传统的制裁与该国违反经济和货币联盟的主要财政规则有关,而相对较新的制裁与不遵守欧盟基本原则有关。这篇文章的注意力集中在第二组措施上,俄罗斯科学文献以前没有详细研究过这些措施,这些措施旨在解决欧盟内部的矛盾——超国家结构和新的东欧欧盟成员国之间的矛盾。这些都是以冻结欧盟资金支出为形式的金融性质的措施,尽管也设想了其他措施。出于这些目的,附加条件机制已于2020年确定,规定欧盟基金的付款依赖于对欧洲规范的尊重和对欧盟基本价值观的遵守。还规定了避免阻止欧盟层面就制裁违规国家作出决定的能力。作为最后手段,制裁的形式是剥夺该国在欧盟理事会的投票权。我们的结论是,通过政治意愿和解决分歧的体制机制,不采取强硬的财政措施就有可能解决问题。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of food losses at the stage of agricultural production in the Russian Federation 俄罗斯联邦农业生产阶段粮食损失评估
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-5-91-105
N. Karlova, E. Payurova, E. Galaktionova
The article presents a method of quantitative measurement of food losses in agricultural production in Russia based on verifiable statistical data and the results of its application. The relevance of the study is related to the limited resources for agricultural production and the growing demand for food, considering climate change, leading to an increase in the risks of extreme weather events and epidemics. The estimates of losses presented in Russia are either based on the calculation of food resource balances and have limitations in terms of coverage of the types of losses considered, or are based on subjective assessments of respondents. The proposed method makes it possible to identify focal points of food losses in agricultural production. In addition, the results obtained can be used to assess the potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions because of limiting food losses in Russian agricultural production.
本文提出了一种基于可验证统计数据的俄罗斯农业生产中粮食损失的定量测量方法及其应用结果。考虑到气候变化导致极端天气事件和流行病风险增加,这项研究的相关性与农业生产资源有限和粮食需求不断增长有关。俄罗斯提出的损失估计数要么基于粮食资源平衡的计算,在所考虑的损失类型的涵盖范围方面有局限性,要么基于对答复者的主观评估。所提出的方法使确定农业生产中粮食损失的焦点成为可能。此外,由于限制了俄罗斯农业生产中的粮食损失,所获得的结果可用于评估减少温室气体排放的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of fiscal rules on the cyclicality of government expenditures 评估财政规则对政府支出周期性的影响
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-5-5-22
A. Kudrin, I. Sokolov, O. Suchkova
The paper analyzes the impact of fiscal rules on the cyclicality of non- interest public spending. It is concluded that for both developed and developing countries for 1995—2019 non-interest public spending is procyclical, and having at least one fiscal rule at the national level reduces the procyclicality of spending. The reaction to the introduction of a fiscal rule depends on the existence of institutional conditions for its successful application. The presence and rigidity of the rules are offset by the possible non-compliance with them. Fiscal rules are not a sufficient condition for a counter-cyclical fiscal policy and do not guarantee a solution to the problems of debt burden and stabilization of expenditures. Hardly 22 out of 49 countries that have applied at least one fiscal rule for 5 years and for which data for at least 10 years of non-interest spending are available show counter-cyclical non-interest spending behavior, and only 7 of them managed to reduce their debt burden after the introduction of a system of fiscal restrictions.
本文分析了财政规则对非利息公共支出周期性的影响。结论是,对于发达国家和发展中国家来说,1995-2019年的无息公共支出都是顺周期的,在国家层面至少有一条财政规则可以降低支出的顺周期性。对引入财政规则的反应取决于是否存在成功应用该规则的制度条件。规则的存在和僵化被可能不遵守规则所抵消。财政规则不是反周期财政政策的充分条件,也不能保证解决债务负担和稳定支出的问题。49个国家中,只有22个国家在5年内至少实施了一项财政规则,并且有至少10年的无息支出数据,这些国家显示出反周期的无息消费行为,其中只有7个国家在引入财政限制制度后设法减轻了债务负担。
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引用次数: 0
On intangible cultural capital 论无形文化资本
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-5-131-147
V. Studentsov
In recent decades there has been a growing interest worldwide in the study of the relationship between various manifestations of culture and economic processes. Contrary to the reckless judgments of some researchers, culture is not universal or neutral, but diverse and has a direct and significant influence on the nature of organization and implementation of economic activity. Nevertheless, in spite the accumulation of numerous and irrefutable evidence of this, the integration of the concept of culture in some or other categorical forms into economic theory for one reason or another has not yet occurred. In characterizing the interaction of cultural and economic processes the author suggests broader use of the concept of cultural capital, similar in many of its “technical” parameters to other intangible capitals. Intangible cultural capital, defined as “habitual perceptions and values”, is a multi-layered and multidimensional phenomenon that contains not only stable and “strong” elements but also those amenable to change, susceptible to degradation and destruction, and therefore exhibits features both as a public good and as a common good.
近几十年来,全世界对研究文化的各种表现形式与经济进程之间的关系越来越感兴趣。与一些研究人员的鲁莽判断相反,文化不是普遍的或中立的,而是多样的,对经济活动的组织和实施的性质有着直接而重大的影响。然而,尽管积累了大量无可辩驳的证据,但由于这样或那样的原因,文化概念以某种或其他分类形式融入经济理论的情况尚未发生。在描述文化和经济过程的相互作用时,作者建议更广泛地使用文化资本的概念,其许多“技术”参数与其他无形资本相似。非物质文化资本被定义为“习惯性观念和价值观”,是一种多层次、多层面的现象,不仅包含稳定和“强大”的元素,还包含易于改变、容易退化和破坏的元素,因此既表现出公共利益的特征,也表现出共同利益的特征。
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引用次数: 0
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