Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-81-99
V. Tambovtsev, E. Buzulukova, L. Valitova, J. Deng, D. Sitkevich, A. M. Turabaeva
The purpose of the article is to provide theoretical and empirical evidence that narrative analysis in economics is not an integral part of qualitative research and is quite compatible with the methodology of quantitative research. The development of methods for collecting and processing data is one of the significant directions in the development of both empirical and theoretical research in economics. Of particular importance to this direction is the consistent expansion of the consideration of social factors in the study of decision-making processes, both at the micro and macro levels. Narrative economics, which has emerged and developed in the last decade, is an integral part of this trend. The article proposes and substantiates a methodology for empirical analysis of narratives considered as sources of quantitative information used in decision making. This distinguishes it from the methods of narrative analysis used in qualitative research in the social sciences, although they are not always distinguished in the literature. The technique combines the search for the frequency of occurrence of various phrases on the Internet with interview analysis, which significantly reduces the time and effort required to search and analyze the necessary information about social factors. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested on the example of the analysis of narratives that characterize personal entrepreneurial networks, no statistical information about which is collected, although the networks themselves play an important role in the formation of new small businesses. The presented results of the analysis show that the technique makes it possible to obtain useful quantitative data on such objects of economic research.
{"title":"Methodology of the narrative analysis in economics: The case of the entrepreneurial networks","authors":"V. Tambovtsev, E. Buzulukova, L. Valitova, J. Deng, D. Sitkevich, A. M. Turabaeva","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-81-99","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-81-99","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the article is to provide theoretical and empirical evidence that narrative analysis in economics is not an integral part of qualitative research and is quite compatible with the methodology of quantitative research. The development of methods for collecting and processing data is one of the significant directions in the development of both empirical and theoretical research in economics. Of particular importance to this direction is the consistent expansion of the consideration of social factors in the study of decision-making processes, both at the micro and macro levels. Narrative economics, which has emerged and developed in the last decade, is an integral part of this trend. The article proposes and substantiates a methodology for empirical analysis of narratives considered as sources of quantitative information used in decision making. This distinguishes it from the methods of narrative analysis used in qualitative research in the social sciences, although they are not always distinguished in the literature. The technique combines the search for the frequency of occurrence of various phrases on the Internet with interview analysis, which significantly reduces the time and effort required to search and analyze the necessary information about social factors. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested on the example of the analysis of narratives that characterize personal entrepreneurial networks, no statistical information about which is collected, although the networks themselves play an important role in the formation of new small businesses. The presented results of the analysis show that the technique makes it possible to obtain useful quantitative data on such objects of economic research.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41584100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-5-34
E. Goryunov, S. Drobyshevsky, A. Kudrin, P. Trunin
The world economy has recently experienced a strong inflationary shock, which the leading research institutions and central banks were unable to predict. In advanced economies inflation rates spiked up to levels had not been seen for decades. Inflation also hit emerging economies albeit the shocks of such magnitude are more common for the countries of this group. What was the reason of the inflationary wave of 2021-2002 and why was it unexpected? In the paper we propose that the main driver of inflation was the rapid recovery of aggregate demand while aggregate supply lagged behind since it was negatively affected by quarantine restrictions and supply chain disruptions. A sharp increase in the prices of food and energy contributed to inflation significantly. Unprecedented fiscal stimulus supported by liquidity injections from central banks was also an important factor in boosting demand and accelerating inflation. Sharp turn towards ultraloose monetary and fiscal policy can be largely attributed to the experience of the previous decade which showed that inflation in advanced economies remained below the target level, despite constant stimulus. We discuss arguments considered by central banks when they kept monetary policy soft even after inflation significantly exceeded the target levels. Finally, we briefly discuss scenarios of possible future inflation, including a stagflation scenario, and analyze their underlying factors.
{"title":"Causes and lessons of accelerating global inflation","authors":"E. Goryunov, S. Drobyshevsky, A. Kudrin, P. Trunin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-5-34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-5-34","url":null,"abstract":"The world economy has recently experienced a strong inflationary shock, which the leading research institutions and central banks were unable to predict. In advanced economies inflation rates spiked up to levels had not been seen for decades. Inflation also hit emerging economies albeit the shocks of such magnitude are more common for the countries of this group. What was the reason of the inflationary wave of 2021-2002 and why was it unexpected? In the paper we propose that the main driver of inflation was the rapid recovery of aggregate demand while aggregate supply lagged behind since it was negatively affected by quarantine restrictions and supply chain disruptions. A sharp increase in the prices of food and energy contributed to inflation significantly. Unprecedented fiscal stimulus supported by liquidity injections from central banks was also an important factor in boosting demand and accelerating inflation. Sharp turn towards ultraloose monetary and fiscal policy can be largely attributed to the experience of the previous decade which showed that inflation in advanced economies remained below the target level, despite constant stimulus. We discuss arguments considered by central banks when they kept monetary policy soft even after inflation significantly exceeded the target levels. Finally, we briefly discuss scenarios of possible future inflation, including a stagflation scenario, and analyze their underlying factors.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46613503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-50-80
A. Shastitko, S. I. Fedorov
In 2022 political issues made significant adjustments to individual economic plans of hundreds of millions of people around the world. Against this background, the idea of industrial regulation is gaining popularity again as a means to overcome the shocks that have arisen. However, how effective is such a mechanism for coordinating efforts to adapt to changes? In our article, we propose to look at the problem through the analysis of two models of man: the entrepreneur in Austrian economics and the limited rational person in the transaction costs economics. Based on the results of the analysis we reconstruct the process of adapting the market (or industry) to the shock using a formalized model of the game theory. The model allows us to demonstrate two key informational problems of adaptation to changes: individuals’ limited rationality and their heterogeneity in terms of “entrepreneurial alertness”. For industrial policy, this means the expediency of comparing the regulatory intervention’s benefits and costs during the shock period, taking into account the entrepreneurs’ advantage over the regulator in the collection and use of dispersed knowledge.
{"title":"Man in a changing world: How to coordinate individual plans?","authors":"A. Shastitko, S. I. Fedorov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-50-80","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-50-80","url":null,"abstract":"In 2022 political issues made significant adjustments to individual economic plans of hundreds of millions of people around the world. Against this background, the idea of industrial regulation is gaining popularity again as a means to overcome the shocks that have arisen. However, how effective is such a mechanism for coordinating efforts to adapt to changes? In our article, we propose to look at the problem through the analysis of two models of man: the entrepreneur in Austrian economics and the limited rational person in the transaction costs economics. Based on the results of the analysis we reconstruct the process of adapting the market (or industry) to the shock using a formalized model of the game theory. The model allows us to demonstrate two key informational problems of adaptation to changes: individuals’ limited rationality and their heterogeneity in terms of “entrepreneurial alertness”. For industrial policy, this means the expediency of comparing the regulatory intervention’s benefits and costs during the shock period, taking into account the entrepreneurs’ advantage over the regulator in the collection and use of dispersed knowledge.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42834203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-100-114
A. Kalinin
The paper assesses some of the consequences of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Whereas much discussion about its costs and benefits happened during the WTO negotiations and in the first years after the accession, there was little said on the real consequences afterwards. The aim of the research is to assess the degree of fulfillment of the accession expectations after a decade. The research method is the analysis of panel data on the world trade for 2000-2019 (an econometric model based on the gravity model of foreign trade). It has been established that the WTO accession ultimately benefited for Russian foreign trade. However, this effect has been offset by increased political tensions since 2014. The objections to the WTO also turned out to be predominantly justified. The most positive economic consequences of the WTO exist for exporters of low value added goods. The criticism of the WTO participation by machine builders is understandable: although they are among the beneficiaries, the effects on exports and imports are comparable.
{"title":"Russia’s WTO membership: Assessing the impact on foreign trade","authors":"A. Kalinin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-100-114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-100-114","url":null,"abstract":"The paper assesses some of the consequences of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Whereas much discussion about its costs and benefits happened during the WTO negotiations and in the first years after the accession, there was little said on the real consequences afterwards. The aim of the research is to assess the degree of fulfillment of the accession expectations after a decade. The research method is the analysis of panel data on the world trade for 2000-2019 (an econometric model based on the gravity model of foreign trade). It has been established that the WTO accession ultimately benefited for Russian foreign trade. However, this effect has been offset by increased political tensions since 2014. The objections to the WTO also turned out to be predominantly justified. The most positive economic consequences of the WTO exist for exporters of low value added goods. The criticism of the WTO participation by machine builders is understandable: although they are among the beneficiaries, the effects on exports and imports are comparable.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48597687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-35-49
S. Moiseev
The regular economic crisis prompts macroeconomists to revise their models. The monetary policy is no exception. As a result of the “Great Recession” in 2007-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, they were forced to refresh a look at the monetary policy models that define central bank’s shortterm interest rate decisions. The principles of the New Keynesian economics lie behind most modern models of monetary policy. A set of equations based on several theoretical assumptions and simplifications leads to certain model conclusions. An active work to review the New Keynesian models in the 2020s is under way. Key improvements include financial sector modeling; replacing rational expectations with their alternatives, as well as representative economic agents with heterogeneous ones; finding microeconomic foundations for assumptions; and fiscal policy modeling.
{"title":"The house that Keynes built: Redecorating and overhaul of the monetary policy model","authors":"S. Moiseev","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-35-49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-35-49","url":null,"abstract":"The regular economic crisis prompts macroeconomists to revise their models. The monetary policy is no exception. As a result of the “Great Recession” in 2007-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, they were forced to refresh a look at the monetary policy models that define central bank’s shortterm interest rate decisions. The principles of the New Keynesian economics lie behind most modern models of monetary policy. A set of equations based on several theoretical assumptions and simplifications leads to certain model conclusions. An active work to review the New Keynesian models in the 2020s is under way. Key improvements include financial sector modeling; replacing rational expectations with their alternatives, as well as representative economic agents with heterogeneous ones; finding microeconomic foundations for assumptions; and fiscal policy modeling.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43300494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-10DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-115-141
Stepan Zemtsov, Y. Tsareva
Some institutions can restrict or stimulate the business activity, which affects longterm economic growth. To assess this influence on regional level, we have collected and processed historical data on the distribution of serfs, the creation of universities, and business activity over more than a century. By business activity, we mean various direct and indirect assessments of the involvement of the population in entrepreneurial activity: merchants, NEPmen, cooperatives, small businesses, etc. Although the geography of business activity has constantly changed, we can identify relatively stable centers (Moscow, St. Petersburg, the south of the Far Eastern Russia) and the periphery (some regions of the North Caucasus, the Central Black Earth and the Volga regions). Econometric calculations confirm the existence of a relationship between the current density of small businesses in the Russian regions and the density of cooperatives in the late Soviet period; the relationship with the density of retail enterprises disappears by the 1970s as the planned economy strengthens. But the relationship with the merchant class is ambiguous: only in some regions did the entrepreneurial culture manage to survive the Soviet period. We distinguish three main channels of influence of the historical level of business activity on the modern one: geographical, functional, and sociocultural. According to the calculations, the earlier emergence of universities in the regions contributed to the spread of business culture and could stimulate the emergence of more inclusive institutions, but serfdom, as an extractive institution, on the contrary, could limit incentives for entrepreneurship. Even after a radical change in the political and economic regime, the influence of extractive institutions on business activity may persist, and inclusive institutions take a significant amount of time to take root.
{"title":"Long-term effects of extractive and inclusive institutions on entrepreneurship persistence in Russian regions","authors":"Stepan Zemtsov, Y. Tsareva","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-115-141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-7-115-141","url":null,"abstract":"Some institutions can restrict or stimulate the business activity, which affects longterm economic growth. To assess this influence on regional level, we have collected and processed historical data on the distribution of serfs, the creation of universities, and business activity over more than a century. By business activity, we mean various direct and indirect assessments of the involvement of the population in entrepreneurial activity: merchants, NEPmen, cooperatives, small businesses, etc. Although the geography of business activity has constantly changed, we can identify relatively stable centers (Moscow, St. Petersburg, the south of the Far Eastern Russia) and the periphery (some regions of the North Caucasus, the Central Black Earth and the Volga regions). Econometric calculations confirm the existence of a relationship between the current density of small businesses in the Russian regions and the density of cooperatives in the late Soviet period; the relationship with the density of retail enterprises disappears by the 1970s as the planned economy strengthens. But the relationship with the merchant class is ambiguous: only in some regions did the entrepreneurial culture manage to survive the Soviet period. We distinguish three main channels of influence of the historical level of business activity on the modern one: geographical, functional, and sociocultural. According to the calculations, the earlier emergence of universities in the regions contributed to the spread of business culture and could stimulate the emergence of more inclusive institutions, but serfdom, as an extractive institution, on the contrary, could limit incentives for entrepreneurship. Even after a radical change in the political and economic regime, the influence of extractive institutions on business activity may persist, and inclusive institutions take a significant amount of time to take root.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42194608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-05DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-5-35
R. Kapeliushnikov
The paper explores a curious phenomenon in the modern economic science — the intellectual confrontation between proponents of new development economics (“randomistas”) and its opponents. The general message of the new approach is that the technique of randomized controlled trials/experiments (RCT) must be considered the only truly scientific method, and only this technique should be used in studying the problems of developing countries. RCTs have been recognized as the “gold standard” in evaluating the effectiveness of anti-poverty programs; today this approach absolutely dominates in development economics. The paper discusses the main features of the RCT economics: an inclination to imitate biomedical research; atheoretical character; the idea of a hierarchy of methods; reorientation from large-scale macroeconomic and institutional reforms to targeted social and humanitarian interventions. The problems of internal and external validity of RCT are highlighted. A general conclusion is that conceptually counter-arguments of critics look more convincing: the idea of a hierarchy of methods is unscientific; no methodological “gold standard” exists in economic analysis; estimates obtained on the basis of RCT cannot be considered unbiased; RCTs are almost powerless in the face of the problem of external validity; policy recommendations derived from RCTs are of very limited practical value. However, the logic of critics has been trumped by the rhetoric of randomistas: most likely, randomized experiments will escalate, and their intellectual and political influence will grow.
{"title":"“Randomistas”: A new development economics","authors":"R. Kapeliushnikov","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-5-35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-5-35","url":null,"abstract":"The paper explores a curious phenomenon in the modern economic science — the intellectual confrontation between proponents of new development economics (“randomistas”) and its opponents. The general message of the new approach is that the technique of randomized controlled trials/experiments (RCT) must be considered the only truly scientific method, and only this technique should be used in studying the problems of developing countries. RCTs have been recognized as the “gold standard” in evaluating the effectiveness of anti-poverty programs; today this approach absolutely dominates in development economics. The paper discusses the main features of the RCT economics: an inclination to imitate biomedical research; atheoretical character; the idea of a hierarchy of methods; reorientation from large-scale macroeconomic and institutional reforms to targeted social and humanitarian interventions. The problems of internal and external validity of RCT are highlighted. A general conclusion is that conceptually counter-arguments of critics look more convincing: the idea of a hierarchy of methods is unscientific; no methodological “gold standard” exists in economic analysis; estimates obtained on the basis of RCT cannot be considered unbiased; RCTs are almost powerless in the face of the problem of external validity; policy recommendations derived from RCTs are of very limited practical value. However, the logic of critics has been trumped by the rhetoric of randomistas: most likely, randomized experiments will escalate, and their intellectual and political influence will grow.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45496342","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-05DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-36-61
H. Penikas
The research relies on the uniquely extracted dataset of loan offered rates at the start of 2022. We justify that the larger banks are more prone to disclose such offers. Content-wise we are able to disentangle the loan-specific credit risk factors and the bank risk-appetite drivers. We show that banks using own data and models to compute prudential ratios (IRB-banks) tend to evaluate the credit risk more conservatively than the rest of the banks.
{"title":"Retail loan pricing determinants in Russia","authors":"H. Penikas","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-36-61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-36-61","url":null,"abstract":"The research relies on the uniquely extracted dataset of loan offered rates at the start of 2022. We justify that the larger banks are more prone to disclose such offers. Content-wise we are able to disentangle the loan-specific credit risk factors and the bank risk-appetite drivers. We show that banks using own data and models to compute prudential ratios (IRB-banks) tend to evaluate the credit risk more conservatively than the rest of the banks.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48406951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-05DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-76-93
K. Krinichansky, M. Yurevich, A. Fatkin
The paper presents the results of an analysis of the relationship between financial and economic development In Russian regions. The authors focus on one of the transmission channels of this relationship — the channel of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The issue of the SMEs’ dependence on the access to credit in the literature is generally considered separately from the issue of the impact of small business on economic dynamics. In this study, both issues are combined in one chain of the theoretical analysis and are examined with the help of an econometric model using credit depth measures as instrumental variables. To track the SMEs’ development, three variables were defined to characterize the size of the SME sector, the share of SMEs in the structure of the private sector, and the operational efficiency of small enterprises. Our data refer to the subjects of RF and cover the period from 2008 to 2019. The results confirm the Russian SMEs sector’s ability to act as a transmission channel from financial deepening to output growth. The most reliable variables are those characterizing the size of the SMEs sector in the region and the revenue of small firms per employee. Our findings support the conclusions made in a large number of works that provide evidence of the crucial importance of the conditions for access to external finance to raise the SMEs’ performance. The results we obtained also confirm that it would be reasonable to put special emphasis on overcoming obstacles in the access of SMEs to external financing when they take initiatives to develop SMEs in the regions.
{"title":"Finance and growth nexus in Russia: Does the SMEs channel matter?","authors":"K. Krinichansky, M. Yurevich, A. Fatkin","doi":"10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-76-93","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-76-93","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents the results of an analysis of the relationship between financial and economic development In Russian regions. The authors focus on one of the transmission channels of this relationship — the channel of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The issue of the SMEs’ dependence on the access to credit in the literature is generally considered separately from the issue of the impact of small business on economic dynamics. In this study, both issues are combined in one chain of the theoretical analysis and are examined with the help of an econometric model using credit depth measures as instrumental variables. To track the SMEs’ development, three variables were defined to characterize the size of the SME sector, the share of SMEs in the structure of the private sector, and the operational efficiency of small enterprises. Our data refer to the subjects of RF and cover the period from 2008 to 2019. The results confirm the Russian SMEs sector’s ability to act as a transmission channel from financial deepening to output growth. The most reliable variables are those characterizing the size of the SMEs sector in the region and the revenue of small firms per employee. Our findings support the conclusions made in a large number of works that provide evidence of the crucial importance of the conditions for access to external finance to raise the SMEs’ performance. The results we obtained also confirm that it would be reasonable to put special emphasis on overcoming obstacles in the access of SMEs to external financing when they take initiatives to develop SMEs in the regions.","PeriodicalId":45534,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy Ekonomiki","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44580802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-05DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2023-6-62-75
E. G. Demidova, E. Bogatov
The capital structure is determined by the ratio of the company’s own and borrowed funds. It has a direct impact on the financial stability of the company, profit and return on equity. Thus a reasonable calculation of the value of the specified ratio is an urgent problem for any large enterprise. The correct ratio of borrowed and own capital in the structure of the aggregate corporate capital will allow to provide the specified return from the use of own capital in changing market conditions. The methodology of optimizing the structure of capital proposed by the authors is based on a formula for increasing return on equity (ROE) as a function of three variables — return on sales (ROS), resource productivity (Y) and equity multiplier M. The interpretation of the DuPont model as a model with lagged variables is original, which allows to predict the change in the equity multiplier at the expense of possible increase in other variables: resource productivity and return on sales, provided that the return on equity will reach the target level. There have been obtained formulas which allow modeling the structure of capital that guarantees a given profitability. The heuristic principle based on the three-factor model of DuPont ROE = ROS×Y×M, was that keeping the return on equity at the same level (as compared with the reference period) should entail compensation for the multidirectional dynamics of return on sales, resource productivity and equity multiplier. The paper considers three variants of the dependence of changes in the ratio of equity and borrowed capital of the company: when resource productivity is unchanged (ΔY = 0), when return on sales is unchanged (ΔROS = 0) and when both indicators change simultaneously (ΔY ≠ 0 and ΔROS ≠ 0). The methodology presented by the authors also allows to calculate the structure of capital which would provide a given level of return on equity ROE based on the forecast of return on assets ROS and return on sales Y with reference to the values of ROS and Y calculated in the reference period. We present the testing of this algorithm (in all three variants) on the basis of the reporting data of one of the metallurgical companies of Russia for the period 2017—2019.
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