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Effectiveness of the stabilization fiscal rule for resource-rich countries 资源丰富国家稳定财政规则的有效性
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-72-97
M. Andreyev
This paper explores the efficacy of the fiscal rule enacted by regulators in exporting countries, which implies the smoothing of tax revenue from the sale of natural resources. Under “efficacy” we understand its stabilization effect that is lowering volatility (countercyclicality) of key macroeconomic variables following its imposition. The approach to the operation of the fiscal rule is based on two types of assumptions: those about the type of the fiscal rule and about the structure of the economy. The first ones take into account imperfections in the workings of the revenue smoothing mechanism; the second relate to the duration of price and wage contracts, the cost of investing in foreign assets, government demand structures, household habits and the share of Ricardian households. We use a DSGE model of a small open economy with a strong reliance on commodity exports. The paper analyzes the assumptions under which various modifications of the fiscal rule lose their efficiency in relation to inflation, output and the exchange rate. The study emphasizes the importance of accurate identifying of fiscal rule workings, as well as the need for correct measurement of economic indicators in order to determine the nature of the fiscal rule effect related to revenue smoothing. The conclusion is made regarding the effectiveness of the future fiscal rule in Russia in the absence of an external wealth fund and a closed financial account. 
本文探讨了出口国监管机构制定的财政规则的效力,该规则意味着自然资源销售税收的平滑。在“有效性”下,我们理解其稳定效应,即在实施后降低关键宏观经济变量的波动性(逆周期性)。财政规则运作的方法基于两种类型的假设:关于财政规则类型的假设和关于经济结构的假设。第一个考虑到了收入平滑机制运作中的缺陷;第二个涉及价格和工资合同的期限、投资外国资产的成本、政府需求结构、家庭习惯和Ricardian家庭的份额。我们采用DSGE模式,建立一个高度依赖商品出口的小型开放型经济体。本文分析了财政规则的各种修改在通货膨胀、产出和汇率方面失去效率的假设。该研究强调了准确识别财政规则运作的重要性,以及正确衡量经济指标的必要性,以确定与收入平滑相关的财政规则效应的性质。得出的结论是,在没有外部财富基金和封闭金融账户的情况下,俄罗斯未来财政规则的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
A commodity exporting economy under “the new reality”: Aggregate and structural changes “新现实”下的商品出口经济:总量和结构变化
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-44-71
M. S. Lymar, A. Reentovich, A. Sinyakov
“The new reality” means a commodity-exporting economy cannot use its accumulated fx-reserves or attract new fx-debt to smooth abrupt import reduction amid slower decline of income flow from commodity export. We use a modified version of the Ramsey—Cass—Koopmans’ model to study aggregate and structural changes in the economy under these conditions in the shorter and longer run. The results show that the potential GDP of the economy which cannot effectively substitute its import should decline both in the shorter and longer run. However, full and effective import substitution does not guarantee households would restore their volume of consumption. The reasons are, first, labor reallocation into the import-substituting sector that reduces availability of labor for other sectors and, second, the need to keep capital intensity of production at a higher level. If the efficiency of import substitution is asymmetric and biased to goods for final consumption relative to goods for investments, the structure of imported goods becomes biased to the later. Moreover, goods for final consumption experience very intensive import substitution in such a case. However, it does not result in the restored level of total consumption. The results may imply higher consumer goods inflation in practice. If import substitution is extremely inefficient in both consumption and investment goods’ production, households cannot avert a huge reduction of their welfare.
“新现实”意味着,在商品出口收入流下降放缓的情况下,商品出口经济体无法利用其积累的外汇储备或吸引新的外汇债务来缓解进口的突然减少。我们使用Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型的修正版本来研究在这些条件下短期和长期的经济总量和结构变化。结果表明,从短期和长期来看,无法有效替代进口的经济体的潜在GDP都应该下降。然而,充分有效的进口替代并不能保证家庭能够恢复其消费量。原因是,首先,劳动力重新分配到进口替代部门,这降低了其他部门的劳动力可用性,其次,需要将生产的资本密集度保持在更高的水平。如果进口替代的效率是不对称的,并且相对于投资商品偏向最终消费商品,那么进口商品的结构就会偏向后者。此外,在这种情况下,最终消费品经历了非常密集的进口替代。然而,这并没有导致总消费水平的恢复。这一结果可能意味着实际消费品通胀率更高。如果进口替代在消费品和投资品的生产中效率极低,家庭就无法避免福利的大幅下降。
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引用次数: 2
Drivers of pension growth in the long term 养老金长期增长的驱动因素
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-12-98-117
Y. Gorlin, V. Lyashok
One of the main challenges for the Russian insurance pension system in the long term is to sustain an acceptable ratio of pensions to wages and to prevent the growth of the share of pensioners with unacceptably low pensions. The key challenges and factors affecting the level of pensions have been identified. A set of potential measures for a more acceptable dynamics of pensions, their risks and limitations have been revealed. Forecast calculations for the period up to 2050 on the model of the Russian insurance pension system developed by the authors made it possible to estimate the impact of relevant factors and measures on key pension indicators. It is shown that the implementation of these measures can ensure in 2030—2050: the coefficient of the relative level of pensions (to average wage) of about 40%; the theoretical replacement rate (at 35 years of service and the average wage in Russia) of about 50%; the ratio of the average pension payment to non-working recipients of the old-age insurance pension to the subsistence minimum for pensioners — about 250% in 2030—2035 and 380% by 2050; reducing the share of those whose pension payment is less than the minimum subsistence level, almost by half relative to the inertial scenario — to 6—8%.
俄罗斯保险养恤金制度长期面临的主要挑战之一是维持一个可接受的养恤金与工资的比率,并防止养恤金领取者中养恤金低得令人无法接受的比例的增长。已经确定了影响养恤金数额的主要挑战和因素。为使养恤金的动态更可接受而采取的一套可能的措施,其风险和局限性已经显露出来。根据作者开发的俄罗斯保险养恤金制度模型对2050年之前的预测计算,可以估计有关因素和措施对关键养恤金指标的影响。结果表明,实施这些措施可以确保在2030-2050年:养老金相对水平(对平均工资)的系数在40%左右;理论替代率(俄罗斯35年工龄和平均工资)约为50%;非工作养老保险领取人平均养老金与养老金领取人最低生活保障的比率——2030-2035年约为250%,2050年约为380%;减少那些养老金支付低于最低生活水平的人的比例,相对于惯性情景几乎减少一半,至6-8%。
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引用次数: 0
Privatization in extractive industry under foreign penetration 外国渗透下的采掘业私有化
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-11-73-89
A. Fridman, A. D. Verbetskiy
This paper analyzes optimal privatization policy in exhaustible resource industry where a public domestic firm is less cost efficient than a private multinational firm. It is shown that the impact of foreign penetration on optimal privatization depends on the cost asymmetry between the public and private firm. If the cost efficiency gap is small, then the optimal rate of privatization is a decreasing function of foreign ownership of multinational firm. However, if the cost efficiency gap is large, then, contrasting to existing studies, the result is quite different: full nationalization is optimal if the foreign ownership of multinational firm is low but full privatization becomes optimal if this share is high. Under moderate cost asymmetry foreign penetration does not have any impact on privatization. It is also demonstrated that an increase in foreign penetration results in faster resource extraction by the public firm while an increase in the state share accelerates public firm extraction if it was initially too slow in comparison with the socially efficient path and slows down if it was initially too fast.
本文分析了可耗竭资源行业的最优私有化政策,在该行业中,国内上市公司的成本效率低于跨国私营公司。研究表明,外资渗透对最优私有化的影响取决于公共和私营企业之间的成本不对称。如果成本效率差距很小,那么最优私有化率是外资对跨国公司所有权的递减函数。然而,如果成本效率差距很大,那么,与现有研究相比,结果就大不相同了:如果跨国公司的外国所有权较低,则完全国有化是最优的,但如果这一份额较高,则完全私有化则是最优的。在适度成本不对称的情况下,外国渗透对私有化没有任何影响。研究还表明,外国渗透的增加会导致上市公司更快地提取资源,而国家份额的增加会加速上市公司的提取,如果最初与社会效率路径相比太慢,则会减慢提取速度。
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引用次数: 0
Academic reputations of Russian economists and their scientometric estimates 俄罗斯经济学家的学术声誉及其科学计量估计
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-11-117-135
M. M. Sokolov, E. A. Chechik
The article presents the results of an academic reputation survey of Russian economists (N = 6392). The resulting ranking is then compared with their scientometric indicators provided by the Russian Science Citation Index (citations in eLibrary and in RSCI core), as well as calculated by the authors (citations in the RSCI list of distinguished journals). The analysis demonstrates that a robust hierarchy of academic authority exists in Russia, which is, however, only moderately correlated with scientometric indicators. We can classify discrepancies into type I errors (researchers with high citation rates are not enjoying recognition by peers) and type II errors (recognized researchers have poor scientometric records). Type I errors mostly result from (1) misidentification of authors; (2) non-fractionalized authorship of collected volumes; (3) instrumental citing; (4) gaming the metrics. Type II errors arise from ambiguity of the disciplinary boundaries of economics and boundaries of national science, as well as from the ambiguous status of public intellectuals addressing economic issues and politicians responsible for economic policy. Overall, type II errors are less dramatic: it is hard for Russian economists to be widely influential, but little cited. Type I errors are much more widespread. Indicators based on the RSCI list of distinguished journals give the most accurate estimates.
本文介绍了对俄罗斯经济学家(N=6392)的学术声誉调查结果。然后,将由此产生的排名与俄罗斯科学引文索引提供的科学计量指标(电子图书馆和RSCI核心中的引文)以及作者计算的指标(RSCI杰出期刊列表中的引用)进行比较。分析表明,俄罗斯存在着强大的学术权威等级制度,然而,这与科学计量指标只有适度的相关性。我们可以将差异分为I型错误(引用率高的研究人员不受同行认可)和II型错误(公认的研究人员科学计量记录较差)。I型错误主要是由于(1)对作者的误认;(2) 收集卷的非细分作者;(3) 工具性引用;(4) 对指标进行博弈。第二类错误源于经济学学科边界和国家科学边界的模糊性,以及处理经济问题的公共知识分子和负责经济政策的政治家的模糊地位。总的来说,第二类错误没有那么引人注目:俄罗斯经济学家很难有广泛的影响力,但很少被引用。I型错误更为普遍。基于RSCI杰出期刊列表的指标给出了最准确的估计。
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引用次数: 1
The Marginalist Revolution: An event, a process or a myth? 边际主义革命:一个事件、一个过程还是一个神话?
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-11-5-23
N. Makasheva
The Marginalist Revolution, which is traditionally associated with the date 1871 and the names of Leon Walras, William Stanley Jevons, Karl Menger, is interpreted as a complex and lengthy process, that ended around the mid-twentieth century. Its origins can be traced to three relatively independent trends that existed long before the 1870s: in the field of value theory — a tendency to view utility as a basis of value, in the field of methodology — a trend towards the adoption of deductive method, in the field of analytical tools — a trend towards the application of mathematics in economics. The achievements of these authors, which in a sense can be regarded as a “point of intersection” (“overlap”) of the above-mentioned tendencies, were not properly appreciated by contemporaries, were not considered as revolutionary and for quite a long time remained on the periphery of economic research, became a bridge to the future economic science.
边缘主义革命,传统上与1871年的日期和莱昂·瓦尔拉斯,威廉·斯坦利·杰文斯,卡尔·门格尔的名字联系在一起,被解释为一个复杂而漫长的过程,大约在20世纪中期结束。它的起源可以追溯到19世纪70年代之前存在的三个相对独立的趋势:在价值理论领域-将效用视为价值基础的趋势;在方法论领域-采用演绎法的趋势;在分析工具领域-在经济学中应用数学的趋势。这些作者的成就,在某种意义上可以被视为上述趋势的“交叉点”(“重叠点”),没有得到同时代人的适当重视,不被认为是革命性的,在相当长的一段时间内,仍然处于经济研究的边缘,成为通往未来经济科学的桥梁。
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引用次数: 0
“Three altyns worth of petroleum…”: Oriental goods in Russia at the second half of the 17th and early 18th century “价值三个阿尔金的石油……”:17世纪下半叶和18世纪初俄罗斯的东方商品
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-11-57-72
A. Mustafin
This article uses the records of archival monastic account books to answer a number of questions about trade relations between Russia and the eastern countries at the second half of the 17th and early 18th century. In particular, for some oriental goods, we can talk about the predominance of the import from Europe. Although contemporaries believed that Russia had an advantageous position for the Eurasian transit of oriental goods. The article also presents a newly constructed time series of prices for pepper. The data allow us to affirm that a “price revolution” was not taking place on the Russian spice market. In addition, the study shows that monasteries were one of the key consumers of oriental goods. The monastic books make it possible to describe the use of petroleum and other oriental goods in Russia.
本文利用修道院档案账簿的记录,回答了17世纪下半叶和18世纪初俄罗斯与东方国家贸易关系的一些问题。特别是对于一些东方商品,我们可以谈谈从欧洲进口的主导地位。尽管同时代人认为俄罗斯在东方商品的欧亚运输中具有优势地位。文章还提出了一个新构建的辣椒价格时间序列。这些数据使我们能够肯定,俄罗斯香料市场没有发生“价格革命”。此外,研究表明,寺院是东方商品的主要消费者之一。修道院的书籍使得描述石油和其他东方商品在俄罗斯的使用成为可能。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of industry clusters on the performance of Russian private companies: Inter-industry analysis 产业集群对俄罗斯私营公司业绩的影响:行业间分析
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-11-90-116
A. Zyuzin, O. Demidova
This paper discovers the sustainability of agglomeration externalities and robustness issues for Russian private real sector companies between 2011 to 2018. Agglomeration effects are measured with the Ellison—Glaeser index (industry is supposed to be clustered in certain region(s) if the EG value is high). Firms’ sales margin was chosen as the main performance characteristic (dependent variable). The sample was divided into six aggregated groups (agriculture, mining, manufacturing, transport, IT, services). For each of them, sustainability and robustness of the concentration effect were checked using OLS estimates obtained for each year. Companies, located in and out of the cluster were studied separately. Strong, sustainable, and positive concentration effects were found for the agricultural, mining and transport industries. Sustainable negative agglomeration effects appear for the manufacturing and service industries. For IT companies located inside the industry cluster the agglomeration effect appeared to be negative and for those outside it — positive.
本文研究了2011 - 2018年俄罗斯私营实体企业集聚外部性的可持续性和稳健性问题。集聚效应是用Ellison-Glaeser指数来衡量的(如果EG值高,行业就应该聚集在某个地区)。选取企业的销售利润率作为主要绩效特征(因变量)。样本被分为六个总体组(农业、采矿业、制造业、运输业、IT业和服务业)。对它们中的每一个,使用每年获得的OLS估计来检查浓度效应的可持续性和稳健性。分别对集群内和集群外的企业进行了研究。农业、采矿业和交通运输业的集聚效应强劲、可持续、正向。制造业和服务业呈现持续的负集聚效应。对于位于产业集群内的IT企业,其集聚效应为负,而对于产业集群外的IT企业,其集聚效应为正。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of ESG-factors on financial stability ESG因素对金融稳定的影响
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-11-136-148
M. Stolbov, M. Shchepeleva
An increasing attention has been riveted recently on so called ESGfactors impacting financial stability. This paper provides a systematic review of the empirical studies which assess the impact of environmental (climatic), social factors as well as various aspects related to corporate governance on financial stability. Overall, higher ESG-rankings, both aggregate and in terms of the three pillars (E, S, G), tend to enhance the financial system stability from the microand macroprudential perspective by mitigating aggregate individual risk of financial institutions and the contribution to systemic risk, respectively. Nonetheless, the research intensity within the ESG pillars differs substantially. There are significantly more studies investigating the impact of environmental and corporate governance factors then tackling the effects of social ones. This literature review is closed with the discussion of possible directions for future investigation in the given research program.
最近,人们越来越关注影响金融稳定的所谓ESG因素。本文系统地回顾了评估环境(气候)、社会因素以及与公司治理相关的各个方面对财务稳定性的影响的实证研究。总体而言,较高的ESG排名,无论是总体排名还是三大支柱(E、S、G)排名,都倾向于通过分别降低金融机构的总体个人风险和对系统性风险的贡献,从微观和宏观审慎的角度增强金融系统的稳定性。尽管如此,ESG支柱内的研究强度差异很大。研究环境和公司治理因素影响的研究要比研究社会因素的影响多得多。这篇文献综述最后讨论了在给定的研究计划中未来调查的可能方向。
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引用次数: 4
Cinderella or princess: Past and present of economic history 灰姑娘还是公主:经济史的过去和现在
IF 0.8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-02 DOI: 10.32609/0042-8736-2022-11-24-56
A. Maltsev
The article considers: (a) the main features of the development of economic history (EH) as an academic discipline in the second half of the 20th century; key challenges faced by the EH in the early 2020s. Based on the results of the survey of 147 international economic historians author reveals the most popular methods used by scholars from different local research communities. Special attention is paid to the study of respondents’ perception of the place of EH among other sciences. The analysis has shown that nowadays EH is gradually becoming an interdisciplinary research platform connecting scholars from a wide variety of subject At the same time, these scholars are united not as much by the unity of conceptual views, as by the desire to study EH not for the sake of history per se, but for the sake of finding the origins of modern social and economic challenges. The article also contains the results of a survey of 42 Russian economic historians about the theoretical and methodological assumptions they use and their vision of the problems of studying economic history in today’s Russia. The analysis has revealed that one of the main challenges for the development of the Russian community of economic historians is its high fragmentation, manifested in the lack of methodological consensus, as well as a rather pessimistic vision of future prospects of EH.
本文认为:(a)20世纪下半叶经济史学科发展的主要特点;裕利安怡在20世纪20年代初面临的主要挑战。根据对147位国际经济历史学家的调查结果,作者揭示了来自不同地方研究界的学者使用的最流行的方法。特别注意研究受访者对EH在其他科学中的地位的看法。分析表明,当今EH正逐渐成为一个跨学科的研究平台,连接着来自不同学科的学者。与此同时,这些学者的团结并不是因为概念观点的统一,而是因为他们希望研究EH,而不是为了历史本身,而是为了寻找现代社会和经济挑战的根源。这篇文章还包含了对42位俄罗斯经济历史学家的调查结果,这些历史学家使用的理论和方法论假设,以及他们对当今俄罗斯经济史研究问题的看法。分析表明,俄罗斯经济历史学家群体发展的主要挑战之一是其高度分裂,表现为缺乏方法共识,以及对EH未来前景的悲观看法。
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引用次数: 1
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Voprosy Ekonomiki
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