Pub Date : 2022-03-08DOI: 10.1108/jfep-12-2021-0317
G. Montes, Vitor da Fonseca
Purpose Using a fiscal sentiment indicator, this study aims to verify whether fiscal sentiment affects the yield curve in Brazil. Since policymakers highlight the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies and the importance of fiscal policy to the expectations formation process in inflation targeting regimes, the authors also explore the transmission mechanism through inflation expectations. Hence, the study also analyzes the effect of fiscal sentiment on interest rate swap spreads through the inflation expectations channel. Design/methodology/approach Based on information obtained from official communiqués about fiscal policies issued by the Central Bank of Brazil and the Brazilian Ministry of Finance, the study builds a fiscal sentiment indicator. The econometric strategy to verify whether fiscal sentiment is related to the short tail of the yield curve is based on time series analysis through ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments estimates. In turn, to estimate the transmission mechanism through inflation expectations, the model uses interaction terms between fiscal sentiment and inflation expectations. Findings The results suggest a more optimistic (pessimistic) fiscal sentiment reduces (increases) swap spreads. The findings reveal that improvements in fiscal credibility and a more optimistic fiscal sentiment are able to reduce the positive marginal effect that inflation expectations variations have on interest rate swap spreads. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature, as, to the best of authors’ knowledge, it is the first to analyze the content of the communiqués related to fiscal policy, and based on this content, it extracts the sentiment related to the fiscal environment and analyzes the effect of this sentiment on the yield curve. Besides, different from existing studies that analyze the effect of fiscal backward-looking aspects (such as public debt, budget balance, taxes and public spending) on the yield curve, this study investigates forward-looking aspects related to fiscal policy (such as fiscal credibility and fiscal sentiment).
{"title":"Yield curve reactions to fiscal sentiment in Brazil","authors":"G. Montes, Vitor da Fonseca","doi":"10.1108/jfep-12-2021-0317","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-12-2021-0317","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Using a fiscal sentiment indicator, this study aims to verify whether fiscal sentiment affects the yield curve in Brazil. Since policymakers highlight the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies and the importance of fiscal policy to the expectations formation process in inflation targeting regimes, the authors also explore the transmission mechanism through inflation expectations. Hence, the study also analyzes the effect of fiscal sentiment on interest rate swap spreads through the inflation expectations channel.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000Based on information obtained from official communiqués about fiscal policies issued by the Central Bank of Brazil and the Brazilian Ministry of Finance, the study builds a fiscal sentiment indicator. The econometric strategy to verify whether fiscal sentiment is related to the short tail of the yield curve is based on time series analysis through ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments estimates. In turn, to estimate the transmission mechanism through inflation expectations, the model uses interaction terms between fiscal sentiment and inflation expectations.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results suggest a more optimistic (pessimistic) fiscal sentiment reduces (increases) swap spreads. The findings reveal that improvements in fiscal credibility and a more optimistic fiscal sentiment are able to reduce the positive marginal effect that inflation expectations variations have on interest rate swap spreads.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study contributes to the literature, as, to the best of authors’ knowledge, it is the first to analyze the content of the communiqués related to fiscal policy, and based on this content, it extracts the sentiment related to the fiscal environment and analyzes the effect of this sentiment on the yield curve. Besides, different from existing studies that analyze the effect of fiscal backward-looking aspects (such as public debt, budget balance, taxes and public spending) on the yield curve, this study investigates forward-looking aspects related to fiscal policy (such as fiscal credibility and fiscal sentiment).\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41582443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-24DOI: 10.1108/jfep-07-2021-0193
Abigail Naa Korkor Adjei, George Tweneboah, Peterson Owusu Junior
Purpose The purpose of this paper to investigate the interdependence between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and business cycles within and among six emerging market economies (EMEs) from January 1999 to December 2018. Design/methodology/approach This study adopts the wavelet multiple correlations and wavelet multiple cross-correlation (WMCC) based on the maximal overlap discrete transform estimator. This methodology simultaneously investigates how two or more time series variables move together continuously at both time and frequency domains. Findings The empirical results show that business cycles comove with EPU for both intra- and inter-country analysis, with the long term showing the greatest degree of interdependence. In intra-country comparisons, EPU has a positive correlation with consumer price index and a negative correlation with share price index. According to the WMCC results, EPU does not have any leading or lagging power within each EME, but rather import has both lead and lag power. The inter-country WMCC results are all significant, with Korea’s EPU leading/following all EMEs across all scales. Originality/value This study contributes to the ongoing debate about what causes business cycles to comove by investigating business cycle indicators (leader/follower) using a robust wavelet methodology. The authors propose new variables that can clearly reflect the outcome of economic policy actions and translate information about EPU shocks. The inclusion of the variables has altered the understanding of the relationship between EPU and business cycle fluctuations. Policymakers also gain new insights into the trends and patterns of EPU and business cycles, which will help them formulate and implement fiscal and monetary policies more effectively.
{"title":"Interdependence of economic policy uncertainty and business cycles in selected emerging market economies","authors":"Abigail Naa Korkor Adjei, George Tweneboah, Peterson Owusu Junior","doi":"10.1108/jfep-07-2021-0193","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-07-2021-0193","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper to investigate the interdependence between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and business cycles within and among six emerging market economies (EMEs) from January 1999 to December 2018.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study adopts the wavelet multiple correlations and wavelet multiple cross-correlation (WMCC) based on the maximal overlap discrete transform estimator. This methodology simultaneously investigates how two or more time series variables move together continuously at both time and frequency domains.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical results show that business cycles comove with EPU for both intra- and inter-country analysis, with the long term showing the greatest degree of interdependence. In intra-country comparisons, EPU has a positive correlation with consumer price index and a negative correlation with share price index. According to the WMCC results, EPU does not have any leading or lagging power within each EME, but rather import has both lead and lag power. The inter-country WMCC results are all significant, with Korea’s EPU leading/following all EMEs across all scales.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study contributes to the ongoing debate about what causes business cycles to comove by investigating business cycle indicators (leader/follower) using a robust wavelet methodology. The authors propose new variables that can clearly reflect the outcome of economic policy actions and translate information about EPU shocks. The inclusion of the variables has altered the understanding of the relationship between EPU and business cycle fluctuations. Policymakers also gain new insights into the trends and patterns of EPU and business cycles, which will help them formulate and implement fiscal and monetary policies more effectively.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44218576","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-17DOI: 10.1108/jfep-03-2021-0073
Terver Kumeka, P. Ajayi, O. Adeniyi
Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of health and other exogenous shocks on stock markets in Africa. Particularly, the authors examined the resilience of the major stock markets in 12 African economies during the recent global pandemic. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the recent panel vector autoregressive model, which enables us to capture the response of stock markets to shocks in COVID-19, commodity markets and exchange rate. For robustness, the authors also analysed the panel Granger causality test. Data was obtained for the period ranging from 2 January 2020 to 31 December 2020. Findings The results show that the growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths do not have any substantial impact on the stock market returns of these economies. In terms of commodity markets, the authors find that gold price has a negative contemporaneous effect on stock returns, but the effect fizzles out around the fifth day while crude oil price, on the other hand, has a significant positive simult aneous impact on stock returns and also converges around the fifth day. The authors further find that the exchange rate has a contemporaneous and nonlinear effect on stock returns and seems to be more dramatic when compared with the other variables. Overall, the results show that stock markets in Africa appear to be flexible and resilient against the COVID-19 outbreak but are affected by other exogenous shocks such as volatile commodity prices and the foreign exchange market. The effect is, however, short-lived – between one to five days. Practical implications Following the study’s findings, policies should be put in place to support financial markets by way of hedging against commodity instability and securing domestic currency financing. Policymakers are also recommended to concentrate on managing the uncertainties around their exchange rate markets and develop robust and efficient domestic financial markets to encourage local and foreign investors. Originality/value Several studies have been carried out on the effects of disasters (such as the COVID-19 pandemic) on stock markets, but only a few studies have examined the resilience of stock markets to health and other exogenous shocks. This study’s attempt is not only to examine the impact of COVID-19 health shocks on stock markets but also to analyse the resilience of the sampled stock markets. The authors also analyse the resilience of stock markets to commodity markets and exchange rates shocks.
{"title":"Is stock market in Sub-Saharan Africa resilient to health shocks?","authors":"Terver Kumeka, P. Ajayi, O. Adeniyi","doi":"10.1108/jfep-03-2021-0073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-03-2021-0073","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to examine the impact of health and other exogenous shocks on stock markets in Africa. Particularly, the authors examined the resilience of the major stock markets in 12 African economies during the recent global pandemic.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper uses the recent panel vector autoregressive model, which enables us to capture the response of stock markets to shocks in COVID-19, commodity markets and exchange rate. For robustness, the authors also analysed the panel Granger causality test. Data was obtained for the period ranging from 2 January 2020 to 31 December 2020.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results show that the growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths do not have any substantial impact on the stock market returns of these economies. In terms of commodity markets, the authors find that gold price has a negative contemporaneous effect on stock returns, but the effect fizzles out around the fifth day while crude oil price, on the other hand, has a significant positive simult aneous impact on stock returns and also converges around the fifth day. The authors further find that the exchange rate has a contemporaneous and nonlinear effect on stock returns and seems to be more dramatic when compared with the other variables. Overall, the results show that stock markets in Africa appear to be flexible and resilient against the COVID-19 outbreak but are affected by other exogenous shocks such as volatile commodity prices and the foreign exchange market. The effect is, however, short-lived – between one to five days.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Following the study’s findings, policies should be put in place to support financial markets by way of hedging against commodity instability and securing domestic currency financing. Policymakers are also recommended to concentrate on managing the uncertainties around their exchange rate markets and develop robust and efficient domestic financial markets to encourage local and foreign investors.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Several studies have been carried out on the effects of disasters (such as the COVID-19 pandemic) on stock markets, but only a few studies have examined the resilience of stock markets to health and other exogenous shocks. This study’s attempt is not only to examine the impact of COVID-19 health shocks on stock markets but also to analyse the resilience of the sampled stock markets. The authors also analyse the resilience of stock markets to commodity markets and exchange rates shocks.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43113556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-14DOI: 10.1108/jfep-09-2021-0242
Saji Thazhungal Govindan Nair
Purpose Research on price extremes and overreactions as potential violations of market efficiency has a long tradition in investment literature. Arguably, very few studies to date have addressed this issue in cryptocurrencies trading. The purpose of this paper is to consider the extreme value modelling for forecasting COVID-19 effects on cryptocoin markets. Additionally, this paper examines the importance of technical trading indicators in predicting the extreme price behaviour of cryptocurrencies. Design/methodology/approach This paper decomposes the daily-time series returns of four cryptocurrency returns into potential maximum gains (PMGs) and potential maximum losses (PMLs) at first and then tests their lead–lag relations under an econometric framework. This paper also investigates the non-random properties of cryptocoins by computing the incremental explanatory power of PML–PMG modelling with technical trading indicators controlled. Besides, this paper executes an event study to identify significant changes caused by COVID-19-related events, which is capable of analysing the cryptocoin market overreactions. Findings The findings of this paper produce the evidence of both market overreactions and trend persistence in the potential gains and losses from coins trading. Extreme price behaviour explains volatility and price trends in crypto markets before and after the outbreak of a pandemic that substantiate the non-random walk behaviour of crypto returns. The presence of technical trading indicators as control variables in the extreme value regressions significantly improves the predictive power of models. COVID-19 crisis affects the market efficiency of cryptocurrencies that improves the usefulness of extreme value predictions with technical analysis. Research limitations/implications This paper strongly supports for the robustness of technical trading strategies in cryptocurrency markets. However, the “beast is moving quick” and uncertainty as to the new normalcy about the post-COVID-19 world puts constraint on making best predictions. Practical implications The paper contributes substantially to our understanding of the pricing efficiency of cryptocurrency markets after the COVID-19 outbreak. The findings of continuing return predictability and price volatility during COVID-19 show that profitable investment opportunities for cryptocoin traders are prevailing in pandemic times. Originality/value The paper is unique to understand extreme return reversals behaviour of cryptocurrency markets regarding events related to COVID-19 breakout.
{"title":"On extreme value theory in the presence of technical trend: pre and post Covid-19 analysis of cryptocurrency markets","authors":"Saji Thazhungal Govindan Nair","doi":"10.1108/jfep-09-2021-0242","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-09-2021-0242","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000Research on price extremes and overreactions as potential violations of market efficiency has a long tradition in investment literature. Arguably, very few studies to date have addressed this issue in cryptocurrencies trading. The purpose of this paper is to consider the extreme value modelling for forecasting COVID-19 effects on cryptocoin markets. Additionally, this paper examines the importance of technical trading indicators in predicting the extreme price behaviour of cryptocurrencies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper decomposes the daily-time series returns of four cryptocurrency returns into potential maximum gains (PMGs) and potential maximum losses (PMLs) at first and then tests their lead–lag relations under an econometric framework. This paper also investigates the non-random properties of cryptocoins by computing the incremental explanatory power of PML–PMG modelling with technical trading indicators controlled. Besides, this paper executes an event study to identify significant changes caused by COVID-19-related events, which is capable of analysing the cryptocoin market overreactions.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The findings of this paper produce the evidence of both market overreactions and trend persistence in the potential gains and losses from coins trading. Extreme price behaviour explains volatility and price trends in crypto markets before and after the outbreak of a pandemic that substantiate the non-random walk behaviour of crypto returns. The presence of technical trading indicators as control variables in the extreme value regressions significantly improves the predictive power of models. COVID-19 crisis affects the market efficiency of cryptocurrencies that improves the usefulness of extreme value predictions with technical analysis.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This paper strongly supports for the robustness of technical trading strategies in cryptocurrency markets. However, the “beast is moving quick” and uncertainty as to the new normalcy about the post-COVID-19 world puts constraint on making best predictions.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The paper contributes substantially to our understanding of the pricing efficiency of cryptocurrency markets after the COVID-19 outbreak. The findings of continuing return predictability and price volatility during COVID-19 show that profitable investment opportunities for cryptocoin traders are prevailing in pandemic times.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The paper is unique to understand extreme return reversals behaviour of cryptocurrency markets regarding events related to COVID-19 breakout.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48223156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-24DOI: 10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0141
John Kwaku Mensah Mawutor, Freeman Christian Gborse, Ernest Sogah, Barbara Deladem Mensah
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of financial development on the Doing Business and capital flight contagion. And further, this study determines the threshold beyond which financial development reduces capital flight. Design/methodology/approach A two-step system generalized methods of moment empirical model with linear interaction between Doing Business and financial development was estimated. This study used data on 26 countries over 12 years (2004–2015). Findings The main results indicated that, although Doing Business had a significant positive effect on capital flight, the interactive term had a significant adverse effect on capital flight. This outcome suggests that to reduce capital flight, a well-reformed and efficient business environment should be embedded with an efficient, stable and well-developed financial sector. In addition, the authors found only South Africa has a robust financial framework beyond the threshold of 0.383, whereas Congo, Rep., Rwanda, Malawi, Sierra Leone and Congo, Dem. Rep. had the weakest financial system and sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. Research limitations/implications This study recommends that policymakers should initiate policies that would enhance financial development. Originality/value This study’s main contributions are that the authors estimated the threshold beyond which financial development helps the business environment reduce the rate of capital flight. Further, the authors have shown that financial development is a catalyst to propel the deterioration powers of the business environment against capital flight. Also, the authors have estimated the long-run effect of the variables of interest on capital flight.
{"title":"Doing Business and capital flight: role of financial development","authors":"John Kwaku Mensah Mawutor, Freeman Christian Gborse, Ernest Sogah, Barbara Deladem Mensah","doi":"10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0141","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of financial development on the Doing Business and capital flight contagion. And further, this study determines the threshold beyond which financial development reduces capital flight.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000A two-step system generalized methods of moment empirical model with linear interaction between Doing Business and financial development was estimated. This study used data on 26 countries over 12 years (2004–2015).\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The main results indicated that, although Doing Business had a significant positive effect on capital flight, the interactive term had a significant adverse effect on capital flight. This outcome suggests that to reduce capital flight, a well-reformed and efficient business environment should be embedded with an efficient, stable and well-developed financial sector. In addition, the authors found only South Africa has a robust financial framework beyond the threshold of 0.383, whereas Congo, Rep., Rwanda, Malawi, Sierra Leone and Congo, Dem. Rep. had the weakest financial system and sector in Sub-Saharan Africa.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This study recommends that policymakers should initiate policies that would enhance financial development.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study’s main contributions are that the authors estimated the threshold beyond which financial development helps the business environment reduce the rate of capital flight. Further, the authors have shown that financial development is a catalyst to propel the deterioration powers of the business environment against capital flight. Also, the authors have estimated the long-run effect of the variables of interest on capital flight.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45551665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-11DOI: 10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0148
A. Budagaga
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the validity of irrelevant theory empirically by exploring the relationship between cash dividends, profitability, leverage and investment policy with the value of banking institutions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts Ohlson’s (1995) valuation model. The author estimates models by using static panel (random and fixed effects) techniques and the dynamic technique, namely, the GMM estimation. The empirical study covers a sample of 122 conventional and 37 Islamic banks listed on stock markets in 12 MENA countries over the period 1999–2018. Findings The empirical results show that dividend yield has no significant association with the value of conventional banks, whereas profitability, growth opportunity and leverage have a significant positive impact on the value of conventional banks. In contrast, the results for a sample of Islamic banks indicate that the dividend yield, profitability and leverage have a significant positive effect on the value of Islamic banks, whereas growth opportunity has no significant effect on the value of Islamic banks. Therefore, these results support, to a greater extent, the validity of the dividend irrelevance theory of Modigliani and Miller for conventional banks but would not be accepted for Islamic banks in the MENA region. Research limitations/implications This study is restricted to a sample of one type of financial firms, banking firms listed in the MENA countries. In addition, the study has dealt with one type of dividend (the cash dividend). Practical implications Highlighting the difference between conventional and Islamic banks is crucial to understanding dividend policy behavior and to providing investors information to be integrated in their valuation setting to make informed corporate decisions. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, the present study is the first of its kind that it draws a comparative analysis by testing empirically the validity of the Irrelevant Theory to banks in the MENA region covering a long time period in the recent past.
{"title":"The validity of the irrelevant theory in Middle East and North African markets: conventional banks versus Islamic banks","authors":"A. Budagaga","doi":"10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0148","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is to test the validity of irrelevant theory empirically by exploring the relationship between cash dividends, profitability, leverage and investment policy with the value of banking institutions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The paper adopts Ohlson’s (1995) valuation model. The author estimates models by using static panel (random and fixed effects) techniques and the dynamic technique, namely, the GMM estimation. The empirical study covers a sample of 122 conventional and 37 Islamic banks listed on stock markets in 12 MENA countries over the period 1999–2018.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical results show that dividend yield has no significant association with the value of conventional banks, whereas profitability, growth opportunity and leverage have a significant positive impact on the value of conventional banks. In contrast, the results for a sample of Islamic banks indicate that the dividend yield, profitability and leverage have a significant positive effect on the value of Islamic banks, whereas growth opportunity has no significant effect on the value of Islamic banks. Therefore, these results support, to a greater extent, the validity of the dividend irrelevance theory of Modigliani and Miller for conventional banks but would not be accepted for Islamic banks in the MENA region.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This study is restricted to a sample of one type of financial firms, banking firms listed in the MENA countries. In addition, the study has dealt with one type of dividend (the cash dividend).\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Highlighting the difference between conventional and Islamic banks is crucial to understanding dividend policy behavior and to providing investors information to be integrated in their valuation setting to make informed corporate decisions.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000To the best of the author’s knowledge, the present study is the first of its kind that it draws a comparative analysis by testing empirically the validity of the Irrelevant Theory to banks in the MENA region covering a long time period in the recent past.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45913904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-18DOI: 10.1108/jfep-04-2021-0113
T. Willett
Purpose This study aims to critically review recent contributions to the methodology of financial economics and discuss how they relate to one another and directions for further research. Design/methodology/approach A critical review of recent literature on new methodologies for financial economics. Findings Recent books have made important contributions to the study of financial economics. They suggest new approaches that include an emphasis on radical uncertainty, adaptive markets, agent-based modeling and narrative economics, as well as extensions of behavioral finance to include concepts such as diagnostic expectations. Many of these contributions can be seen more as complements than substitutes and provide fruitful directions for further research. Efficient markets can be seen as holding under particular circumstances. A major them of most of these contributions is that the study of financial crises and other aspects of financial economics requires the use of multiple theories and approaches. No one approach will be sufficient. Research limitations/implications There are great opportunities for further research in financial economics making use of these new approaches. Practical implications These recent contributions can be quite useful for improved analysis by researchers, private participants in the financial sector and macroeconomic and regulatory officials. Originality/value Provides an introduction to these new approaches and highlights fruitful areas for their extensions and applications.
{"title":"New developments in financial economics","authors":"T. Willett","doi":"10.1108/jfep-04-2021-0113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-04-2021-0113","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to critically review recent contributions to the methodology of financial economics and discuss how they relate to one another and directions for further research.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000A critical review of recent literature on new methodologies for financial economics.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Recent books have made important contributions to the study of financial economics. They suggest new approaches that include an emphasis on radical uncertainty, adaptive markets, agent-based modeling and narrative economics, as well as extensions of behavioral finance to include concepts such as diagnostic expectations. Many of these contributions can be seen more as complements than substitutes and provide fruitful directions for further research. Efficient markets can be seen as holding under particular circumstances. A major them of most of these contributions is that the study of financial crises and other aspects of financial economics requires the use of multiple theories and approaches. No one approach will be sufficient.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000There are great opportunities for further research in financial economics making use of these new approaches.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000These recent contributions can be quite useful for improved analysis by researchers, private participants in the financial sector and macroeconomic and regulatory officials.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Provides an introduction to these new approaches and highlights fruitful areas for their extensions and applications.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47798847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-17DOI: 10.1108/jfep-02-2021-0053
Hem C. Basnet, Ficawoyi Donou-Adonsou, K. Upadhyaya
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether remittances induce inflation in South Asian countries, namely, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach This study uses panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group techniques covering from 1975 to 2017 to estimate the long-run and the short-run effect of remittances on inflation. Findings The estimated results suggest that the inflationary impact of remittances in South Asia depends on the time length. The inflow tends to lower inflation in the short run, whereas it increases in the long run. The findings highlight the regional peculiarity in the impact of remittances on the price level. The results are statistically significant and are confirmed by the Mean Group estimation as well. Originality/value Most past studies investigating the nexus between remittances and inflation in the South Asian context examine either these countries individually or include them all in a pool of big cross-sections. This study contributes to the literature by addressing this void. The South Asian countries should not generalize the earlier findings on the link between remittance inflows and inflation, as the short-run effect is different from the long run. Thus, these countries would be better off designing long-run policies that are different from the short run.
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Pub Date : 2021-08-17DOI: 10.1108/jfep-02-2021-0030
Rafael Acevedo, Jose U. Mora, Andrew T. Young
Purpose
Mora and Acevedo (2019) report that the government spending multipliers in Latin American countries are notably higher than what is typically reported for developed economies. Latin American countries have been inclined toward using procyclical fiscal policies. Those policies have been perceived as being effective at mitigating the effects of the 2008–2009 Great Recession. This study aims to estimate the government spending multiplier using Latin American panel data from 19 Latin American countries from 2000 to 2018. The estimates are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom. Based on the results, the latter is important: the less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors provide regression results that are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom.
Findings
The less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is first study to estimate the fiscal multiplier conditional on economic freedom levels. The authors provide correctly calculated multipliers conditional on different levels of economic freedom. The authors point the way to future studies considering the effectiveness of fiscal policy conditional on institutional/policy quality.
{"title":"The government spending multiplier in Latin American countries: does the institutional environment matter?","authors":"Rafael Acevedo, Jose U. Mora, Andrew T. Young","doi":"10.1108/jfep-02-2021-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-02-2021-0030","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>Mora and Acevedo (2019) report that the government spending multipliers in Latin American countries are notably higher than what is typically reported for developed economies. Latin American countries have been inclined toward using procyclical fiscal policies. Those policies have been perceived as being effective at mitigating the effects of the 2008–2009 Great Recession. This study aims to estimate the government spending multiplier using Latin American panel data from 19 Latin American countries from 2000 to 2018. The estimates are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom. Based on the results, the latter is important: the less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>The authors provide regression results that are conditional on the extent of openness, capital mobility and economic freedom.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The less economically free a country, the larger its spending multiplier. Lower economic freedom in Latin American countries can help to account for their large spending multipliers. In particular, restrictions on international trade are positively associated with multipliers. This is the case even while controlling the trade share of GDP.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is first study to estimate the fiscal multiplier conditional on economic freedom levels. The authors provide correctly calculated multipliers conditional on different levels of economic freedom. The authors point the way to future studies considering the effectiveness of fiscal policy conditional on institutional/policy quality.</p><!--/ Abstract__block -->","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":"454 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138505618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-07-29DOI: 10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0149
R. Cebula, F. Rossi
Purpose This study mathematically aims to evaluate the implications of a central bank’s adoption of a policy of quantitative easing (QE)/relative QE. Design/methodology/approach It is shown, within an investment-savings (IS)-liquidity preference-money supply (LM) framework, that this policy prerogative has, depending upon the aggressiveness which QE is undertaken, demonstrable implications for the conditions under which macroeconomic stability exists. Findings Furthermore, it is shown here that the presence of QE increases the effectiveness of traditional discretionary monetary and fiscal policies. Originality/value The study shows, within an IS-LM framework, that this policy prerogative has, depending upon the aggressiveness which QE is undertaken, demonstrable implications for the conditions under which macroeconomic stability exists.
{"title":"Quantitative easing, macroeconomic stability and economic policy effectiveness","authors":"R. Cebula, F. Rossi","doi":"10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0149","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-06-2021-0149","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study mathematically aims to evaluate the implications of a central bank’s adoption of a policy of quantitative easing (QE)/relative QE.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000It is shown, within an investment-savings (IS)-liquidity preference-money supply (LM) framework, that this policy prerogative has, depending upon the aggressiveness which QE is undertaken, demonstrable implications for the conditions under which macroeconomic stability exists.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Furthermore, it is shown here that the presence of QE increases the effectiveness of traditional discretionary monetary and fiscal policies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The study shows, within an IS-LM framework, that this policy prerogative has, depending upon the aggressiveness which QE is undertaken, demonstrable implications for the conditions under which macroeconomic stability exists.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2021-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"62092427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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