Pub Date : 2023-05-05DOI: 10.1108/jfep-02-2023-0033
Godwin Musah, Daniel Domeher, Abubakar Musah
Purpose This paper aims to investigate the effect of presidential elections on stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses various criteria to select an appropriate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to estimate the second moment of the return distribution with the inclusion of pre- and post-presidential election dummy variables that capture the effect of presidential elections on stock market volatility. Findings The empirical results show that high pre-election uncertainty increases volatility in the Nairobi Stock Exchange, Stock Exchange of Mauritius and the Nigeria Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results show that volatility in stock return is reduced 90 days after an election in Nigeria and South Africa but increases 90 days after elections in Ghana. Originality/value Contrary to the previous studies that are conducted in a single country with focus on specific elections, this paper provides a comparative analysis of presidential elections and stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.
{"title":"Presidential elections and stock return volatility: evidence from selected sub-Saharan African stock markets","authors":"Godwin Musah, Daniel Domeher, Abubakar Musah","doi":"10.1108/jfep-02-2023-0033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-02-2023-0033","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper aims to investigate the effect of presidential elections on stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper uses various criteria to select an appropriate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to estimate the second moment of the return distribution with the inclusion of pre- and post-presidential election dummy variables that capture the effect of presidential elections on stock market volatility.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The empirical results show that high pre-election uncertainty increases volatility in the Nairobi Stock Exchange, Stock Exchange of Mauritius and the Nigeria Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the results show that volatility in stock return is reduced 90 days after an election in Nigeria and South Africa but increases 90 days after elections in Ghana.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Contrary to the previous studies that are conducted in a single country with focus on specific elections, this paper provides a comparative analysis of presidential elections and stock return volatility in five leading stock markets in sub-Saharan Africa.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42051230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-18DOI: 10.1108/jfep-01-2023-0012
Harish Kumar Bhatter, Biswajit Prasad Chhatoi
Purpose This study aims to examine the nexus among financial inclusion, legislative corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the financial performance of banking companies in India. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the fixed-effect model to measure the impact of financial inclusion on the financial performance of banks listed in the Bank Nifty Index from 2015 to 2022. Furthermore, it examines the interaction effect of legislative CSR and financial inclusion on the performance of banks. Findings The study shows that financial inclusion indicators positively affect financial performance, which is critical for banking institutions. Empirically, the study provides evidence that legislative CSR is a significant moderator that can influence the relationship between financial inclusion and the financial performance of banks. Practical implications The emerging nations may concentrate on implementing legislative CSR spending to achieve economic value for their firms and societal responsibility toward stakeholders. Originality/value As per the authors’ collective knowledge, this study is the one that extends the empirical evidence that the legislative CSR is a potential moderator which influences the relationship between financial inclusion and the performance of banks.
{"title":"Financial inclusion and financial performance: evaluating the moderating effect of mandatory corporate social responsibility","authors":"Harish Kumar Bhatter, Biswajit Prasad Chhatoi","doi":"10.1108/jfep-01-2023-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-01-2023-0012","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the nexus among financial inclusion, legislative corporate social responsibility (CSR) and the financial performance of banking companies in India.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The study uses the fixed-effect model to measure the impact of financial inclusion on the financial performance of banks listed in the Bank Nifty Index from 2015 to 2022. Furthermore, it examines the interaction effect of legislative CSR and financial inclusion on the performance of banks.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The study shows that financial inclusion indicators positively affect financial performance, which is critical for banking institutions. Empirically, the study provides evidence that legislative CSR is a significant moderator that can influence the relationship between financial inclusion and the financial performance of banks.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The emerging nations may concentrate on implementing legislative CSR spending to achieve economic value for their firms and societal responsibility toward stakeholders.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000As per the authors’ collective knowledge, this study is the one that extends the empirical evidence that the legislative CSR is a potential moderator which influences the relationship between financial inclusion and the performance of banks.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42272516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-28DOI: 10.1108/jfep-10-2022-0256
Kingstone Nyakurukwa, Yudhvir Seetharam
Purpose This study aims to investigate the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) and monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) in four nations, the USA, Japan, Greece and South Korea, between 1998 and 2021. Design/methodology/approach To comprehend the cross-category/cross-country evolution of uncertainty connectedness, the authors use the conditional connectedness approach. By using an inclusive network, this strategy lessens the bias caused by omitted variables. The TVP-VAR method is advantageous as it eliminates outliers that may potentially skew the results and reduces the bias caused by picking arbitrary rolling windows. Findings Based on the findings, aggregate EPU is a net transmitter of policy uncertainties across all countries when conditional-country connectedness is used. MPU receives significantly more spillovers than FPU does across all countries, even though both are primarily recipients of uncertainties. The USA appears to be a transmitter of categorical spillovers before COVID-19, while Greece appears to be a net receiver of all category spillovers in terms of category-specific connectedness. The existence of extreme global events is also seen to cause an increase in category-specific and country-specific connectedness. Additionally, the authors report that conditional country-specific connectedness is greater than conditional category-specific connectedness. Originality/value This study expands existing literature in several ways. Firstly, the authors use a novel conditional connectedness approach, which has not been used to untangle cross-category/cross-country policy uncertainty connectedness. Secondly, they use the TVP-VAR approach which does not depend on rolling windows to understand dynamic connectedness. Thirdly, they use an expanded number of countries in their analysis, a departure from existing studies that have in most cases used two countries to understand categorical EPU connectedness.
{"title":"Cross-country categorical economic policy uncertainty spillovers: evidence from a conditional connectedness TVP-VAR framework","authors":"Kingstone Nyakurukwa, Yudhvir Seetharam","doi":"10.1108/jfep-10-2022-0256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-10-2022-0256","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to investigate the dynamic interconnectedness of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) and monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) in four nations, the USA, Japan, Greece and South Korea, between 1998 and 2021.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000To comprehend the cross-category/cross-country evolution of uncertainty connectedness, the authors use the conditional connectedness approach. By using an inclusive network, this strategy lessens the bias caused by omitted variables. The TVP-VAR method is advantageous as it eliminates outliers that may potentially skew the results and reduces the bias caused by picking arbitrary rolling windows.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Based on the findings, aggregate EPU is a net transmitter of policy uncertainties across all countries when conditional-country connectedness is used. MPU receives significantly more spillovers than FPU does across all countries, even though both are primarily recipients of uncertainties. The USA appears to be a transmitter of categorical spillovers before COVID-19, while Greece appears to be a net receiver of all category spillovers in terms of category-specific connectedness. The existence of extreme global events is also seen to cause an increase in category-specific and country-specific connectedness. Additionally, the authors report that conditional country-specific connectedness is greater than conditional category-specific connectedness.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study expands existing literature in several ways. Firstly, the authors use a novel conditional connectedness approach, which has not been used to untangle cross-category/cross-country policy uncertainty connectedness. Secondly, they use the TVP-VAR approach which does not depend on rolling windows to understand dynamic connectedness. Thirdly, they use an expanded number of countries in their analysis, a departure from existing studies that have in most cases used two countries to understand categorical EPU connectedness.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47607140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty and bank competition on the financial stability of the Chinese banking industry. This study answers two fundamental questions. First, does economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects the financial stability of banks in China? Second, does competition affect the financial stability of the Chinese banking sector? Design/methodology/approach The sample includes all commercial banks to provide a full picture of the Chinese banking sector. This study covers the time between 2011 and 2019. The sample period captures different EPU spikes and key policy changes. This study used different econometric methodologies such as the generalized method of moments and the fixed effect and ordinary least square estimation models. Furthermore, this study used the Instrumental Variable model to solve endogeneity, autocorrelation and unobserved heterogeneity concerns. Besides, alternative EPU and financial stability measures were used. Moreover, this study reestimates the model after dropping the big five state-owned banks. Findings This study found that both EPU and competition reduce financial stability. This implies that EPU has a negative impact on financial stability. This shows that uncertainty distorts resource allocation efficiency and creates confusion, leading to financial instability in the banking sector. Besides, this study found that competition negatively affects financial stability. This result implies that high competition pushes banks toward riskier activities that ultimately lead to increased financial instability. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind that examines the impact of EPU and competition on the financial stability of the Chinese banking sector. This study conducted several robustness tests such as the instrumental variable model, alternative measurement and sample construction methods. This study brings policy implications and lessons for the banking sector.
{"title":"Economic policy uncertainty, bank competition and financial stability","authors":"Tigist Abebe Desalegn, Hongquan Zhu, Dinkneh Gebre Borojo","doi":"10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-04-2022-0106","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty and bank competition on the financial stability of the Chinese banking industry. This study answers two fundamental questions. First, does economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects the financial stability of banks in China? Second, does competition affect the financial stability of the Chinese banking sector?\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The sample includes all commercial banks to provide a full picture of the Chinese banking sector. This study covers the time between 2011 and 2019. The sample period captures different EPU spikes and key policy changes. This study used different econometric methodologies such as the generalized method of moments and the fixed effect and ordinary least square estimation models. Furthermore, this study used the Instrumental Variable model to solve endogeneity, autocorrelation and unobserved heterogeneity concerns. Besides, alternative EPU and financial stability measures were used. Moreover, this study reestimates the model after dropping the big five state-owned banks.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This study found that both EPU and competition reduce financial stability. This implies that EPU has a negative impact on financial stability. This shows that uncertainty distorts resource allocation efficiency and creates confusion, leading to financial instability in the banking sector. Besides, this study found that competition negatively affects financial stability. This result implies that high competition pushes banks toward riskier activities that ultimately lead to increased financial instability.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study is the first of its kind that examines the impact of EPU and competition on the financial stability of the Chinese banking sector. This study conducted several robustness tests such as the instrumental variable model, alternative measurement and sample construction methods. This study brings policy implications and lessons for the banking sector.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48683356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-02DOI: 10.1108/jfep-11-2022-0286
Mourad Mroua, H. Bouattour
Purpose This paper examines the time-varying return connectedness between renewable energy, oil, precious metals, the Gulf Council Cooperation region and the United States stock markets during two successive crises: the pandemic Covid-19 and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war. The main objective is to investigate the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war on the connectedness between the considered stock markets. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach, which represents an extension of the Spillover approach (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2009, 2012, 2014), to examine the time-varying connectedness among stock markets. Findings This paper reflects the effect of the two crises on the stock markets in terms of shock transmission degree. We find that the United States and renewable energy stock markets are the main net emitters of shocks during the global period and not just during the two considered crises sub-periods. Oil stock market is both an emitter and a receiver of shocks against Gulf Council Cooperation region and United States markets during the full sample period, which may be due to price fluctuation especially during the two crises sub-periods, which suggests that the future is for renewable energy. Originality/value This paper examines the effect of the two recent and successive crises, the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war, on the connectedness among traditional stock markets (the United States and Gulf Council Cooperation region) and commodities stock markets (renewable energy, oil and precious metals).
{"title":"Connectedness among various financial markets classes under Covid-19 pandemic and 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war: evidence from TVP-VAR approach","authors":"Mourad Mroua, H. Bouattour","doi":"10.1108/jfep-11-2022-0286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-11-2022-0286","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper examines the time-varying return connectedness between renewable energy, oil, precious metals, the Gulf Council Cooperation region and the United States stock markets during two successive crises: the pandemic Covid-19 and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war. The main objective is to investigate the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war on the connectedness between the considered stock markets.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach, which represents an extension of the Spillover approach (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2009, 2012, 2014), to examine the time-varying connectedness among stock markets.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This paper reflects the effect of the two crises on the stock markets in terms of shock transmission degree. We find that the United States and renewable energy stock markets are the main net emitters of shocks during the global period and not just during the two considered crises sub-periods. Oil stock market is both an emitter and a receiver of shocks against Gulf Council Cooperation region and United States markets during the full sample period, which may be due to price fluctuation especially during the two crises sub-periods, which suggests that the future is for renewable energy.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This paper examines the effect of the two recent and successive crises, the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war, on the connectedness among traditional stock markets (the United States and Gulf Council Cooperation region) and commodities stock markets (renewable energy, oil and precious metals).\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45550748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-31DOI: 10.1108/jfep-12-2022-0297
Maggie Foley, R. Cebula, John Downs, Xiaowei Liu
Purpose The purpose of the current study is to identify variables that, when integrated into the random effects parametric survival model, could be used to forecast the failure rate of small banks in the USA. A bank’s income production, efficiency and costs were taken into consideration when choosing the internal components. The breakout of the financial crisis, bank regulations that affect how the banking sector operates and the federal funds rate are the primary external variables. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the random effects parametric survival model to investigate the causes of small bank failures in the USA from 1996 to 2019. The study identifies several characteristics that failed banks frequently display. The main indications that may help to identify the elevated risk of small bank failures include the ROA, the cost of funds, the ratio of noninterest income to assets, the ratio of loan and lease losses to assets, noninterest expenses and core capital (leverage) ratio to assets. Economic disruptions, financial market distress and industry-based regulatory redress by the government exacerbate the financial distress borne by small banks. Findings The study revealed that a failed bank typically demonstrates a certain number of characteristics. The key factors that might assist identify which bank would be most likely to collapse include the cost of funding earning assets, the yield on earning assets, core Capital (leverage) ratio to assets, loan and lease loss provision to assets, noninterest expense and noninterest income to assets. Additionally, when a financial crisis occurs or the government changes regulations that could raise the cost of compliance for small banks, the likelihood that a bank will fail increases. Originality/value Models based on survival theories are more suitable when the authors examine bank failure as a unique event that happens gradually. The authors use a random effects parametric survival model to investigate the internal and external factors that may influence prospective small bank failure. This model has been developed and used in the medicinal research field. The authors do not choose the Cox proportional hazards model because it does not work well with panel data.
{"title":"Examining small bank failures in the United States: an application of the random effects parametric survival model","authors":"Maggie Foley, R. Cebula, John Downs, Xiaowei Liu","doi":"10.1108/jfep-12-2022-0297","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-12-2022-0297","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of the current study is to identify variables that, when integrated into the random effects parametric survival model, could be used to forecast the failure rate of small banks in the USA. A bank’s income production, efficiency and costs were taken into consideration when choosing the internal components. The breakout of the financial crisis, bank regulations that affect how the banking sector operates and the federal funds rate are the primary external variables.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses the random effects parametric survival model to investigate the causes of small bank failures in the USA from 1996 to 2019. The study identifies several characteristics that failed banks frequently display. The main indications that may help to identify the elevated risk of small bank failures include the ROA, the cost of funds, the ratio of noninterest income to assets, the ratio of loan and lease losses to assets, noninterest expenses and core capital (leverage) ratio to assets. Economic disruptions, financial market distress and industry-based regulatory redress by the government exacerbate the financial distress borne by small banks.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The study revealed that a failed bank typically demonstrates a certain number of characteristics. The key factors that might assist identify which bank would be most likely to collapse include the cost of funding earning assets, the yield on earning assets, core Capital (leverage) ratio to assets, loan and lease loss provision to assets, noninterest expense and noninterest income to assets. Additionally, when a financial crisis occurs or the government changes regulations that could raise the cost of compliance for small banks, the likelihood that a bank will fail increases.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000Models based on survival theories are more suitable when the authors examine bank failure as a unique event that happens gradually. The authors use a random effects parametric survival model to investigate the internal and external factors that may influence prospective small bank failure. This model has been developed and used in the medicinal research field. The authors do not choose the Cox proportional hazards model because it does not work well with panel data.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46950795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-27DOI: 10.1108/jfep-01-2022-0013
P. Matos, F. Bastos, H. Martins, Leilyanne Viana
Purpose The purpose of this paper is discussing on cross-city empirical economic growth, by estimating an unbalanced dynamic panel for the most vulnerable region of Brazil. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose including additional and specific sources of cross-city variation, enabling them to capture the essence and reality of this region. The sample selection is given by the solution of a trade-off on the number of cities and the available explanatory variables. Considering the final choice, the analysis is based on 6,452 observations extracted from a sample of 925 cities between 2009 and 2015. Reconciling the regional growth literature and this availability of observable data, the authors decide to explain cross-city real gross domestic product per capita in log, controlling for its lagged value besides 15 explanatory variables on human capital, financial system, business environment and social infrastructure. Findings This study uses growth drivers on human capital, financial system, business environment and social infrastructure. Considering 6,452 observations for the period from 2009 to 2015, this study finds a significant role played by the levels of education of formal workers, rural financing, real estate financing and FIRJAN indices (health and employment). Research limitations/implications A more comprehensive and complete understanding of cross-city variation, whether in the Northeast, in the North of the country or in other regions, involves the expansion of growth drivers in the model. Certainly, the impact of the industrial sector (not captured by the FIRJAN employment/income index), or programs and initiatives geared to technology, must be significant and positive. Despite the low market share, the insertion of microcredit data for informal, small business owners and more underserved families, can bring insights not measured in this article. Practical implications On financial system and development: The results on the significant and positive coefficient of rural and real estate financing are fundamental in conducting public policies aimed at granting credit. On human capital: The expected and intuitive relevant role of education suggests that good policies that are implementable need to be looked for and replicated to other northeastern cities. The state of Ceará seems to be that benchmark to be followed by the other states. Social implications Another public policy that needs to be strengthened so that the most vulnerable cities can grow is related to the partnership with the private sector in the expansion and maintenance of basic sanitation. In this context, the new Legal Framework for Basic Sanitation is an important step. Its main objective is to universalize and qualify the provision of services in the sector. Theoretically, it seems to be an important advance and this also unlocks the first big wave of investments. Originality/value The analysis aims to contribute to the recent studies on regional g
{"title":"On the cross-city growth drivers of the most vulnerable region of Brazil","authors":"P. Matos, F. Bastos, H. Martins, Leilyanne Viana","doi":"10.1108/jfep-01-2022-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-01-2022-0013","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The purpose of this paper is discussing on cross-city empirical economic growth, by estimating an unbalanced dynamic panel for the most vulnerable region of Brazil.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The authors propose including additional and specific sources of cross-city variation, enabling them to capture the essence and reality of this region. The sample selection is given by the solution of a trade-off on the number of cities and the available explanatory variables. Considering the final choice, the analysis is based on 6,452 observations extracted from a sample of 925 cities between 2009 and 2015. Reconciling the regional growth literature and this availability of observable data, the authors decide to explain cross-city real gross domestic product per capita in log, controlling for its lagged value besides 15 explanatory variables on human capital, financial system, business environment and social infrastructure.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000This study uses growth drivers on human capital, financial system, business environment and social infrastructure. Considering 6,452 observations for the period from 2009 to 2015, this study finds a significant role played by the levels of education of formal workers, rural financing, real estate financing and FIRJAN indices (health and employment).\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000A more comprehensive and complete understanding of cross-city variation, whether in the Northeast, in the North of the country or in other regions, involves the expansion of growth drivers in the model. Certainly, the impact of the industrial sector (not captured by the FIRJAN employment/income index), or programs and initiatives geared to technology, must be significant and positive. Despite the low market share, the insertion of microcredit data for informal, small business owners and more underserved families, can bring insights not measured in this article.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000On financial system and development: The results on the significant and positive coefficient of rural and real estate financing are fundamental in conducting public policies aimed at granting credit. On human capital: The expected and intuitive relevant role of education suggests that good policies that are implementable need to be looked for and replicated to other northeastern cities. The state of Ceará seems to be that benchmark to be followed by the other states.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000Another public policy that needs to be strengthened so that the most vulnerable cities can grow is related to the partnership with the private sector in the expansion and maintenance of basic sanitation. In this context, the new Legal Framework for Basic Sanitation is an important step. Its main objective is to universalize and qualify the provision of services in the sector. Theoretically, it seems to be an important advance and this also unlocks the first big wave of investments.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The analysis aims to contribute to the recent studies on regional g","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46761129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-18DOI: 10.1108/jfep-11-2022-0284
John E. Connaughton, R. Cebula, Louis H. Amato
Purpose This paper to identify those states that suffered the largest job losses, largest GDP declines and the highest unemployment rates and those states whose employment levels, unemployment rates and GDP declines were smallest during the COVID-19 recession. In addition, this paper endeavors to provide at least preliminary insights into why some states faired so poorly, whereas other states suffered so little during this downturn. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses descriptive statistics and regression analysis to analyze the differences in state performance during the COVID-19 recession and recovery. Findings The results from the two estimated regression models suggest that where you lived determined the severity of the recession and living in a blue state negatively impacted the strength of state’s unemployment rate recovery. Research limitations/implications This paper looks at only a two-year period starting with the COVID-19 recession and ending in December 2021. Practical implications This paper provides a regional assessment of the COVID-19 recession and recovery on both a state and regional level. Social implications The paper uses descriptive statistics to characterize the substantial state-level differences in the relative magnitude of economic decline due to the Covid-19 recession. Regression analysis reveals that blue states experienced weaker recovery as compared to red states. Originality/value The study uses publicly available data to identify states that suffered the largest job losses and highest peak unemployment rates during the Covid-19 recession. The results are among the first to analyze the economic impact of the Covid-19 recession at the state level.
{"title":"The regional economic impact of the 2020 COVID-19 recession in the USA","authors":"John E. Connaughton, R. Cebula, Louis H. Amato","doi":"10.1108/jfep-11-2022-0284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-11-2022-0284","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This paper to identify those states that suffered the largest job losses, largest GDP declines and the highest unemployment rates and those states whose employment levels, unemployment rates and GDP declines were smallest during the COVID-19 recession. In addition, this paper endeavors to provide at least preliminary insights into why some states faired so poorly, whereas other states suffered so little during this downturn.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This paper uses descriptive statistics and regression analysis to analyze the differences in state performance during the COVID-19 recession and recovery.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results from the two estimated regression models suggest that where you lived determined the severity of the recession and living in a blue state negatively impacted the strength of state’s unemployment rate recovery.\u0000\u0000\u0000Research limitations/implications\u0000This paper looks at only a two-year period starting with the COVID-19 recession and ending in December 2021.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000This paper provides a regional assessment of the COVID-19 recession and recovery on both a state and regional level.\u0000\u0000\u0000Social implications\u0000The paper uses descriptive statistics to characterize the substantial state-level differences in the relative magnitude of economic decline due to the Covid-19 recession. Regression analysis reveals that blue states experienced weaker recovery as compared to red states.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The study uses publicly available data to identify states that suffered the largest job losses and highest peak unemployment rates during the Covid-19 recession. The results are among the first to analyze the economic impact of the Covid-19 recession at the state level.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46797376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-01-06DOI: 10.1108/jfep-12-2022-0294
J. W. Ahiadorme
Purpose The Covid-19 pandemic has rekindled interest in sovereign debt crises amidst calls for debt relief for developing and emerging countries. But has debt relief lessened the debt burdens of emerging and developing economies? The purpose of this paper is to empirically address this question. In particular, the focus is on the implications of debt relief and institutional qualities for sovereign debt in emerging and developing economies. Design/methodology/approach The model extends the framework on the probability of default by incorporating the receipt of debt relief by a debtor country. Doing so allows to better explain movements of sovereign defaults relating to debt relief. The model is estimated via the regular probit regression. Findings The analysis shows that the debt relief provided, thus, far, failed to ease the debt overhang problems of developing and emerging countries and reduced investment. The current debt relief schemes may underscore the prospects of self-enforcing and self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises rather than eliminating the dilemma completely. Regarding the forms of debt relief, the analysis shows that debt forgiveness offers favourable prospects in terms of debt sustainability and economic outcomes than debt rescheduling. Perhaps, the sovereign debt crises, particularly in low-income countries, hinge on insolvency problems rather than transitory illiquidity issues. Practical implications Any debt relief mechanism should consider seriously the potential incentive effect that reinforces expectations of future debt-relief initiatives. Importantly, solving the sovereign debt problem requires a programme for sustained investment and economic growth, while not discounting the critical role of prudent debt management policies and institutions. Originality/value This study contributes a different angle to the debate on sovereign debt distress. Aside from the structural and economic factors, this study investigates the role of debt management policy in the debtor nation and the implications of debt relief benefits for sovereign risk. The framework also focuses on whether the different forms of debt relief exert distinctive impacts.
{"title":"Unpleasant surprises? Debt relief and risk of sovereign default","authors":"J. W. Ahiadorme","doi":"10.1108/jfep-12-2022-0294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-12-2022-0294","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The Covid-19 pandemic has rekindled interest in sovereign debt crises amidst calls for debt relief for developing and emerging countries. But has debt relief lessened the debt burdens of emerging and developing economies? The purpose of this paper is to empirically address this question. In particular, the focus is on the implications of debt relief and institutional qualities for sovereign debt in emerging and developing economies.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000The model extends the framework on the probability of default by incorporating the receipt of debt relief by a debtor country. Doing so allows to better explain movements of sovereign defaults relating to debt relief. The model is estimated via the regular probit regression.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The analysis shows that the debt relief provided, thus, far, failed to ease the debt overhang problems of developing and emerging countries and reduced investment. The current debt relief schemes may underscore the prospects of self-enforcing and self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises rather than eliminating the dilemma completely. Regarding the forms of debt relief, the analysis shows that debt forgiveness offers favourable prospects in terms of debt sustainability and economic outcomes than debt rescheduling. Perhaps, the sovereign debt crises, particularly in low-income countries, hinge on insolvency problems rather than transitory illiquidity issues.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000Any debt relief mechanism should consider seriously the potential incentive effect that reinforces expectations of future debt-relief initiatives. Importantly, solving the sovereign debt problem requires a programme for sustained investment and economic growth, while not discounting the critical role of prudent debt management policies and institutions.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study contributes a different angle to the debate on sovereign debt distress. Aside from the structural and economic factors, this study investigates the role of debt management policy in the debtor nation and the implications of debt relief benefits for sovereign risk. The framework also focuses on whether the different forms of debt relief exert distinctive impacts.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43387272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-20DOI: 10.1108/jfep-05-2022-0136
P. Priya, C. Sharma
Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of the stringency of COVID-19 protocols on the volatility of sectoral indices during the period 03:2020–05:2021. Specifically, this study investigates the role of economic disturbances on sectoral volatility by applying a range of conditional volatility techniques. Design/methodology/approach For this analysis, two approaches were adopted. The first approach considers COVID stringency as a factor in the conditional variance equation of sectoral indices. In contrast, the second approach considers the stringency indicator as a possible determinant of their estimated conditional volatility. Findings Results show that the stringency of the protocols throughout the pandemic phase led to an instantaneous spike followed by a gradual decrease in estimated volatility of all the sectoral indices except pharma and health care. Specific sectors such as bank, FMCG, consumer durables, financial services, IT, media and private banks respond to protocols expeditiously compared to other sectors. Originality/value The key contribution of this study to the existing literature is the innovative approach. The inclusion of the COVID stringency index as a regressor in the variance equation of the conditional volatility techniques was a distinctive approach for assessing the volatility dynamics with the stringency of COVID protocols. Furthermore, this study also adopts an alternative approach that estimates the conditional volatility of the indices and then tests the effect of the stringencies on estimated volatility in a regression framework.
{"title":"COVID-19 related stringencies and financial market volatility: sectoral evidence from India","authors":"P. Priya, C. Sharma","doi":"10.1108/jfep-05-2022-0136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-05-2022-0136","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000This study aims to examine the impact of the stringency of COVID-19 protocols on the volatility of sectoral indices during the period 03:2020–05:2021. Specifically, this study investigates the role of economic disturbances on sectoral volatility by applying a range of conditional volatility techniques.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000For this analysis, two approaches were adopted. The first approach considers COVID stringency as a factor in the conditional variance equation of sectoral indices. In contrast, the second approach considers the stringency indicator as a possible determinant of their estimated conditional volatility.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000Results show that the stringency of the protocols throughout the pandemic phase led to an instantaneous spike followed by a gradual decrease in estimated volatility of all the sectoral indices except pharma and health care. Specific sectors such as bank, FMCG, consumer durables, financial services, IT, media and private banks respond to protocols expeditiously compared to other sectors.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000The key contribution of this study to the existing literature is the innovative approach. The inclusion of the COVID stringency index as a regressor in the variance equation of the conditional volatility techniques was a distinctive approach for assessing the volatility dynamics with the stringency of COVID protocols. Furthermore, this study also adopts an alternative approach that estimates the conditional volatility of the indices and then tests the effect of the stringencies on estimated volatility in a regression framework.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2022-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48110289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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