Journal of Financial Economic Policy最新文献_第6页

Revisiting long-run dynamics between financial inclusion and economic growth in developing nations: evidence from CS-ARDL approach 重新审视发展中国家金融包容性与经济增长之间的长期动态关系：CS-ARDL 方法提供的证据

IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0186

Tariq Ahmad Mir, R. Gopinathan, D.P. Priyadarshi Joshi

Purpose This study aims to analyze the long-run dynamic relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth for developing nations. Design/methodology/approach This study develops a comprehensive financial inclusion index based on the UNDP methodology for 53 developing nations. The authors use second-generation unit root tests, cointegration techniques and an advanced dynamic common correlated effects estimator model called cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) to examine long-run dynamics among variables. Findings The tests confirm the presence of slope-heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency. The second-generation panel unit root tests show the chosen variables are stationary at first difference. The bootstrap Westerlund cointegration result shows the variables are cointegrated in the long run. The CS-ARDL estimates conclude that financial inclusion positively enhances gross domestic product per capita in selected developing countries. The robustness check through augmented mean group estimation validates the findings. Originality/value The study makes three important contributions: first, it constructs a comprehensive financial inclusion index using 10 variables for a panel of 53 developing nations; second, the potential cross-section dependence and slope heterogeneity of panel data have been accounted for by applying the second-generation unit root tests; third, the study uses the dynamic common correlated effects estimator model (CS-ARDL) to examine long-run dynamics among variables.

目的本研究旨在分析发展中国家金融包容性与经济增长之间的长期动态关系。设计/方法/途径本研究根据联合国开发计划署的方法，为 53 个发展中国家制定了综合金融包容性指数。作者使用第二代单位根检验、协整技术和一种称为横截面增强自回归分布滞后（CS-ARDL）的高级动态共同相关效应估计模型来检验变量之间的长期动态关系。结果检验证实了斜率异质性和横截面依赖性的存在。第二代面板单位根检验表明，所选变量在初差时是静止的。自举维斯特伦德协整结果表明，变量在长期内是协整的。CS-ARDL 估计得出的结论是，在选定的发展中国家，金融包容性能积极提高人均国内生产总值。通过增强均值组估计进行的稳健性检验验证了这一结论。独创性/价值本研究有三个重要贡献：第一，它使用 53 个发展中国家的面板数据中的 10 个变量构建了一个全面的金融包容性指数；第二，通过应用第二代单位根检验，解释了面板数据潜在的横截面依赖性和斜率异质性；第三，本研究使用动态共同相关效应估计模型（CS-ARDL）来检验变量之间的长期动态关系。

{"title":"Revisiting long-run dynamics between financial inclusion and economic growth in developing nations: evidence from CS-ARDL approach","authors":"Tariq Ahmad Mir, R. Gopinathan, D.P. Priyadarshi Joshi","doi":"10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0186","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0186","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to analyze the long-run dynamic relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth for developing nations. Design/methodology/approach This study develops a comprehensive financial inclusion index based on the UNDP methodology for 53 developing nations. The authors use second-generation unit root tests, cointegration techniques and an advanced dynamic common correlated effects estimator model called cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lags (CS-ARDL) to examine long-run dynamics among variables. Findings The tests confirm the presence of slope-heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency. The second-generation panel unit root tests show the chosen variables are stationary at first difference. The bootstrap Westerlund cointegration result shows the variables are cointegrated in the long run. The CS-ARDL estimates conclude that financial inclusion positively enhances gross domestic product per capita in selected developing countries. The robustness check through augmented mean group estimation validates the findings. Originality/value The study makes three important contributions: first, it constructs a comprehensive financial inclusion index using 10 variables for a panel of 53 developing nations; second, the potential cross-section dependence and slope heterogeneity of panel data have been accounted for by applying the second-generation unit root tests; third, the study uses the dynamic common correlated effects estimator model (CS-ARDL) to examine long-run dynamics among variables.","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139248682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Examining small bank failures in the United States: an analysis using (coarsened exact matching) CEM 研究美国的小型银行倒闭:使用(粗精确匹配)CEM的分析

IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-09-2023-0280

Richard J. Cebula, Maggie Foley, John Downs, Douglas Johansen

Purpose

Bank failures are critical events that have far-reaching implications for the financial system and various stakeholders. This study aims to focus on analyzing the phenomenon of small bank failures in the USA.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts the coarsened exact matching (CEM) technique to enhance the reliability of the analysis. By matching similar observed characteristics, the CEM approach helps to address potential selectivity bias and facilitates a more accurate estimation of the treatment effect. This study uses a data set covering the period from 2000 through 2019 and includes 523 failed bank observations and 43,605 nonfailed bank observations.

Findings

The results reveal several key findings. Small banks, especially those with lower yields on earning assets, those with lower charge-offs on loans and leases, those with higher core capital ratios and those with higher Fed Funds rates are found to be more susceptible to failure.

Research limitations/implications

Some results align with initial predictions, whereas others present contrasting outcomes.

Practical implications

This study underscores the significance of understanding the factors contributing to bank failure and emphasizes the importance of studying small bank failures in particular.

Originality/value

This study uses the CEM method. CEM is a comprehensive approach that combines matching, sample trimming and reweighting techniques. When applying CEM, researchers carefully select a set of core variables to achieve balance between the treated and control groups. The CEM process involves discretizing each continuous variable into distinct bins or categories, a process known as “coarsening.” It then requires an exact match among these binned variables between the treated and control units, which constitutes the matching step in CEM.

银行倒闭是对金融体系和各利益相关者具有深远影响的关键事件。本研究旨在重点分析美国的小银行倒闭现象。设计/方法/方法本研究采用粗化精确匹配(CEM)技术来提高分析的可靠性。通过匹配相似的观察特征，CEM方法有助于解决潜在的选择性偏差，并有助于更准确地估计治疗效果。本研究使用了2000年至2019年期间的数据集，其中包括523个失败的银行观测值和43605个未失败的银行观测值。研究结果揭示了几个关键发现。研究发现，小型银行，尤其是那些盈利资产收益率较低、贷款和租赁冲销较低、核心资本比率较高以及联邦基金利率较高的银行，更容易倒闭。研究局限性/意义一些结果与最初的预测一致，而另一些结果则相反。实际意义本研究强调了理解导致银行倒闭的因素的重要性，并特别强调了研究小型银行倒闭的重要性。独创性/价值本研究使用CEM方法。CEM是一种综合的方法，结合了匹配，样本修剪和重加权技术。在应用CEM时，研究人员仔细选择一组核心变量，以实现治疗组和对照组之间的平衡。CEM过程包括将每个连续变量离散到不同的箱子或类别中，这个过程被称为“粗化”。然后，它需要在处理单元和控制单元之间的这些分组变量之间进行精确匹配，这构成了CEM中的匹配步骤。

{"title":"Examining small bank failures in the United States: an analysis using (coarsened exact matching) CEM","authors":"Richard J. Cebula, Maggie Foley, John Downs, Douglas Johansen","doi":"10.1108/jfep-09-2023-0280","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-09-2023-0280","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>Bank failures are critical events that have far-reaching implications for the financial system and various stakeholders. This study aims to focus on analyzing the phenomenon of small bank failures in the USA.</p>\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>This study adopts the coarsened exact matching (CEM) technique to enhance the reliability of the analysis. By matching similar observed characteristics, the CEM approach helps to address potential selectivity bias and facilitates a more accurate estimation of the treatment effect. This study uses a data set covering the period from 2000 through 2019 and includes 523 failed bank observations and 43,605 nonfailed bank observations.</p>\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>The results reveal several key findings. Small banks, especially those with lower yields on earning assets, those with lower charge-offs on loans and leases, those with higher core capital ratios and those with higher Fed Funds rates are found to be more susceptible to failure.</p>\u0000<h3>Research limitations/implications</h3>\u0000<p>Some results align with initial predictions, whereas others present contrasting outcomes.</p>\u0000<h3>Practical implications</h3>\u0000<p>This study underscores the significance of understanding the factors contributing to bank failure and emphasizes the importance of studying small bank failures in particular.</p>\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>This study uses the CEM method. CEM is a comprehensive approach that combines matching, sample trimming and reweighting techniques. When applying CEM, researchers carefully select a set of core variables to achieve balance between the treated and control groups. The CEM process involves discretizing each continuous variable into distinct bins or categories, a process known as “coarsening.” It then requires an exact match among these binned variables between the treated and control units, which constitutes the matching step in CEM.</p>","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138538423","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bank competition and business formation in the U.S. Midwest 美国中西部地区银行竞争与业务形成

IF 1.2 Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-08-2023-0218

Oudom Hean, Parker Jabas

Purpose

In the wake of rapid banking consolidations in the USA, concerns have arisen about the accessibility of capital and financial services for new businesses. With fewer and more centralized banking options, the likelihood of these entities securing financing may be compromised. This study aims to explore the repercussions of this consolidation on entrepreneurial activities in the U.S. Midwest.

Design/methodology/approach

To measure entrepreneurship, this study examines various business application metrics: total applications, high-propensity business applications (i.e. those with a high likelihood of evolving into businesses with payrolls), business applications from corporations (applications stemming from corporations or personal service entities) and applications with planned wages (those indicating a forthcoming payroll date). To assess the banking sector’s consolidation, this study used the deposit-based Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), a well-known measure of banking concentration.

Findings

This research underscores the detrimental impact of banking consolidation on various new business formations. To illustrate, a one standard deviation surge in the HHI, roughly 1253 points, correlates with a decline of approximately 16 total business applications, 7.3 high-propensity business applications, 3.72 applications originating from corporations and 3 applications indicating planned wages – all per 10,000 individuals. The findings indicate that reduced banking competition could slow down new business formations and negatively affect entrepreneurship.

Originality/value

This study examines various business formation statistics and use deposits at the institution level to determine banking concentration.

目的在美国迅速的银行合并之后，人们对新企业获得资本和金融服务的问题产生了担忧。随着越来越少和越来越集中的银行选择，这些实体获得融资的可能性可能会受到影响。本研究旨在探讨这种整合对美国中西部企业活动的影响。设计/方法/方法为了衡量创业精神，本研究考察了各种商业应用指标:总应用、高倾向商业应用(即那些很可能演变成有工资单的商业应用)、来自公司的商业应用(来自公司或个人服务实体的应用)和计划工资应用(那些表明即将到来的工资日期的应用)。为了评估银行业的整合，本研究使用了基于存款的赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数(HHI)，这是一个众所周知的银行业集中度衡量指标。本研究强调了银行合并对各种新业务形式的不利影响。为了说明，HHI的一个标准差激增，大约1253点，与大约16个总商业申请，7.3个高倾向商业申请，3.72个来自公司的申请和3个表明计划工资的申请相关-所有这些都是每10,000个人。研究结果表明，银行业竞争的减少可能会减缓新业务的形成，并对创业产生负面影响。原创性/价值本研究考察了各种业务形成统计数据，并使用机构层面的存款来确定银行集中度。

{"title":"Bank competition and business formation in the U.S. Midwest","authors":"Oudom Hean, Parker Jabas","doi":"10.1108/jfep-08-2023-0218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-08-2023-0218","url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Purpose</h3>\u0000<p>In the wake of rapid banking consolidations in the USA, concerns have arisen about the accessibility of capital and financial services for new businesses. With fewer and more centralized banking options, the likelihood of these entities securing financing may be compromised. This study aims to explore the repercussions of this consolidation on entrepreneurial activities in the U.S. Midwest.</p>\u0000<h3>Design/methodology/approach</h3>\u0000<p>To measure entrepreneurship, this study examines various business application metrics: total applications, high-propensity business applications (i.e. those with a high likelihood of evolving into businesses with payrolls), business applications from corporations (applications stemming from corporations or personal service entities) and applications with planned wages (those indicating a forthcoming payroll date). To assess the banking sector’s consolidation, this study used the deposit-based Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), a well-known measure of banking concentration.</p>\u0000<h3>Findings</h3>\u0000<p>This research underscores the detrimental impact of banking consolidation on various new business formations. To illustrate, a one standard deviation surge in the HHI, roughly 1253 points, correlates with a decline of approximately 16 total business applications, 7.3 high-propensity business applications, 3.72 applications originating from corporations and 3 applications indicating planned wages – all per 10,000 individuals. The findings indicate that reduced banking competition could slow down new business formations and negatively affect entrepreneurship.</p>\u0000<h3>Originality/value</h3>\u0000<p>This study examines various business formation statistics and use deposits at the institution level to determine banking concentration.</p>","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138538428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fiscal space, governance quality and inclusive growth: evidence from Africa 财政空间、治理质量和包容性增长:来自非洲的证据

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0197

Blessing Katuka, Calvin Mudzingiri, Peterson K. Ozili

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal space and governance quality on inclusive growth in African countries. Design/methodology/approach In total, 28 African countries were analyzed from 2000 to 2020 using the generalized method of moment regression method. An inclusive growth index was developed using the principal component analysis (PCA) method. The PCA-derived index incorporates factors such as poverty, income inequality, economic participation and per capita income. Findings The main findings suggest that fiscal space availability ( de facto fiscal space and fiscal balance) promotes inclusive growth. The study also showed that lagged inclusive growth, digitalization and governance indicators positively influence inclusive growth. The study concludes that fiscal space availability fosters inclusive growth, but this effect is mediated by governance quality in Africa. Originality/value Several studies examined the role of fiscal policy on inclusive growth. However, it is crucial to assess the fiscal space, that is, the financial capacity of the government to implement its fiscal policy without harming its financial stability. This paper, therefore, contributes to the existing literature by using de facto fiscal space indicator to comprehend fiscal dynamics contributing to inclusive growth. In addition, the paper uniquely constructs an inclusive growth index by including poverty severity, which considers both the incidence and depth of poverty and inequality in society.

本研究旨在考察财政空间和治理质量对非洲国家包容性增长的影响。设计/方法/方法总共分析了28个非洲国家从2000年到2020年使用广义矩回归方法。采用主成分分析(PCA)方法建立了包容性增长指数。这一源自pca的指数纳入了贫困、收入不平等、经济参与和人均收入等因素。研究结果表明，财政空间可用性(事实上的财政空间和财政平衡)促进了包容性增长。研究还表明，滞后的包容性增长、数字化和治理指标对包容性增长有积极影响。该研究的结论是，财政空间的可用性促进了包容性增长，但这种影响是由非洲的治理质量来调节的。一些研究考察了财政政策对包容性增长的作用。然而，评估财政空间至关重要，即政府在不损害其金融稳定的情况下实施其财政政策的财政能力。因此，本文利用事实财政空间指标来理解促进包容性增长的财政动态，是对现有文献的补充。此外，本文独特地构建了包含贫困严重程度的包容性增长指数，该指数既考虑了社会贫困和不平等的发生率，也考虑了其深度。

{"title":"Fiscal space, governance quality and inclusive growth: evidence from Africa","authors":"Blessing Katuka, Calvin Mudzingiri, Peterson K. Ozili","doi":"10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0197","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal space and governance quality on inclusive growth in African countries. Design/methodology/approach In total, 28 African countries were analyzed from 2000 to 2020 using the generalized method of moment regression method. An inclusive growth index was developed using the principal component analysis (PCA) method. The PCA-derived index incorporates factors such as poverty, income inequality, economic participation and per capita income. Findings The main findings suggest that fiscal space availability ( de facto fiscal space and fiscal balance) promotes inclusive growth. The study also showed that lagged inclusive growth, digitalization and governance indicators positively influence inclusive growth. The study concludes that fiscal space availability fosters inclusive growth, but this effect is mediated by governance quality in Africa. Originality/value Several studies examined the role of fiscal policy on inclusive growth. However, it is crucial to assess the fiscal space, that is, the financial capacity of the government to implement its fiscal policy without harming its financial stability. This paper, therefore, contributes to the existing literature by using de facto fiscal space indicator to comprehend fiscal dynamics contributing to inclusive growth. In addition, the paper uniquely constructs an inclusive growth index by including poverty severity, which considers both the incidence and depth of poverty and inequality in society.","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134991927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Financial inclusion and market-based performance: empirical evidence from Syrian banks 金融包容性和基于市场的绩效:来自叙利亚银行的经验证据

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-05-2023-0114

Masah Alomari, Ibrahim Aladi

Purpose Financial inclusion is considered one of the strategic tools for sustainable development and one of the types of corporate social responsibility disclosures. This study aims to focus on the association between the disclosure of financial inclusion activities and Syrian banking companies’ performance. Design/methodology/approach Different regression models were suggested to examine the hypotheses leading to a better understanding of the relationship between financial inclusion and Syrian banking performance for the period 2005 to 2020 using the STATA 17. Findings The results showed a positive association between financial inclusion disclosure and Syrian bank performance, with low participation in financial inclusion activities (8%). Research limitations/implications The study recommends that the Central Bank of Syria work on developing an index of financial inclusion for the Syrian environment, with the issuance of legislation and laws that obligate all listed banks to disclose their financial inclusion activities as a part of their social responsibility. Originality/value This study incorporates the relationship between the disclosure of financial inclusion activities and the performance of Syrian banking companies, which has been neglected by most studies on financial inclusion. Therefore, this study sheds light on this positive relationship, which could have important repercussions in reviving the deteriorating Syrian economy following the crisis it went through, which, in turn, led to Syria’s high inflation affecting the poor and vulnerable disproportionately.

普惠金融被认为是可持续发展的战略工具之一，也是企业社会责任披露的一种类型。本研究旨在关注金融普惠活动披露与叙利亚银行公司绩效之间的关系。设计/方法/方法使用STATA 17，提出了不同的回归模型来检验假设，从而更好地理解2005年至2020年期间金融包容性与叙利亚银行业绩效之间的关系。结果显示，金融包容性披露与叙利亚银行绩效呈正相关，但参与金融包容性活动的比例较低(8%)。该研究建议叙利亚中央银行致力于为叙利亚环境制定普惠金融指数，并颁布立法和法律，要求所有上市银行披露其普惠金融活动，作为其社会责任的一部分。本研究纳入了普惠金融活动披露与叙利亚银行公司绩效之间的关系，这一关系被大多数普惠金融研究所忽视。因此，本研究揭示了这种积极关系，这可能对恢复危机后不断恶化的叙利亚经济产生重要影响，而危机又导致叙利亚的高通胀对穷人和弱势群体的影响不成比例。

{"title":"Financial inclusion and market-based performance: empirical evidence from Syrian banks","authors":"Masah Alomari, Ibrahim Aladi","doi":"10.1108/jfep-05-2023-0114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-05-2023-0114","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose Financial inclusion is considered one of the strategic tools for sustainable development and one of the types of corporate social responsibility disclosures. This study aims to focus on the association between the disclosure of financial inclusion activities and Syrian banking companies’ performance. Design/methodology/approach Different regression models were suggested to examine the hypotheses leading to a better understanding of the relationship between financial inclusion and Syrian banking performance for the period 2005 to 2020 using the STATA 17. Findings The results showed a positive association between financial inclusion disclosure and Syrian bank performance, with low participation in financial inclusion activities (8%). Research limitations/implications The study recommends that the Central Bank of Syria work on developing an index of financial inclusion for the Syrian environment, with the issuance of legislation and laws that obligate all listed banks to disclose their financial inclusion activities as a part of their social responsibility. Originality/value This study incorporates the relationship between the disclosure of financial inclusion activities and the performance of Syrian banking companies, which has been neglected by most studies on financial inclusion. Therefore, this study sheds light on this positive relationship, which could have important repercussions in reviving the deteriorating Syrian economy following the crisis it went through, which, in turn, led to Syria’s high inflation affecting the poor and vulnerable disproportionately.","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134991924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Analysis of output and output volatility connectedness of Nigeria, USA, China and India: new empirical insights from the global financial crisis versus 2016 Nigerian recession 尼日利亚、美国、中国和印度的产出和产出波动连通性分析:来自全球金融危机与2016年尼日利亚经济衰退的新实证见解

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-11-09 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-04-2023-0090

Onyinye Imelda Anthony-Orji, Ikenna Paulinus Nwodo, Anthony Orji, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor

Purpose This paper aims to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with USA, China and India using quarterly data from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) and used the normalized generalized forecast error variance decomposition from an underlying vector error correction model to build connectedness measures. Findings The findings show that the global financial crisis (GFC) increased the connectedness index far more than the 2016 Nigeria economic recession. The moderate effect of the 2016 Nigeria economic recession on the connectedness index underscores the fact that Nigeria is a small, open economy with minimal capacity to spread output shock. For both real output and its volatility, the total connectedness index rose smoothly and systematically through time, thereby leaving the economies more connected in the long run. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is among the first to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with the USA, China and India using new empirical insights from the GFC versus 2016 Nigerian recession. The study, therefore, concludes that the Nigerian economy should be diversified immediately as a hedge against future real output shocks, while the USA, China and India should maintain and sustain their current policy frameworks to remain less vulnerable to real output shocks.

本文旨在利用1981Q1至2019Q4的季度数据，研究尼日利亚与美国、中国和印度的动态产出和产出波动连通性。本研究采用Diebold和Yilmaz(2014)的网络方法，并从底层矢量误差校正模型中使用归一化广义预测误差方差分解来构建连通性度量。研究结果表明，全球金融危机(GFC)对连通性指数的提高远远超过了2016年尼日利亚经济衰退。2016年尼日利亚经济衰退对连通性指数的影响不大，这表明尼日利亚是一个小型开放经济体，其传播产出冲击的能力最小。就实际产出及其波动性而言，总连通性指数随着时间的推移平稳而系统地上升，从而使各经济体在长期内联系更加紧密。据作者所知，本文是第一批利用全球金融危机与2016年尼日利亚经济衰退的新实证见解，研究尼日利亚与美国、中国和印度的动态产出和产出波动关联性的论文之一。因此，该研究得出的结论是，尼日利亚经济应立即实现多元化，以对冲未来的实际产出冲击，而美国、中国和印度应保持并维持其当前的政策框架，以保持对实际产出冲击的脆弱性。

{"title":"Analysis of output and output volatility connectedness of Nigeria, USA, China and India: new empirical insights from the global financial crisis versus 2016 Nigerian recession","authors":"Onyinye Imelda Anthony-Orji, Ikenna Paulinus Nwodo, Anthony Orji, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor","doi":"10.1108/jfep-04-2023-0090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-04-2023-0090","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This paper aims to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with USA, China and India using quarterly data from 1981Q1 to 2019Q4. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the network approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) and used the normalized generalized forecast error variance decomposition from an underlying vector error correction model to build connectedness measures. Findings The findings show that the global financial crisis (GFC) increased the connectedness index far more than the 2016 Nigeria economic recession. The moderate effect of the 2016 Nigeria economic recession on the connectedness index underscores the fact that Nigeria is a small, open economy with minimal capacity to spread output shock. For both real output and its volatility, the total connectedness index rose smoothly and systematically through time, thereby leaving the economies more connected in the long run. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is among the first to examine Nigeria’s dynamic output and output volatility connectedness with the USA, China and India using new empirical insights from the GFC versus 2016 Nigerian recession. The study, therefore, concludes that the Nigerian economy should be diversified immediately as a hedge against future real output shocks, while the USA, China and India should maintain and sustain their current policy frameworks to remain less vulnerable to real output shocks.","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135191988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Revisiting the financial development and economic growth nexus: empirical evidence from SAARC countries 重新审视金融发展与经济增长的关系:来自南盟国家的经验证据

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-06-2023-0154

Muzffar Hussain Dar, Md Zulquar Nain

Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of economic growth and the moderating impact of inflation on financial development (FD) for six South Asian Association of Regional Countries (SAARC)es during the period of 1990–2020. Besides, the inflation threshold level and FD index are also estimated. Design/methodology/approach This study uses several cross-sectional dependency tests, pooled mean group and panel fully modified least squares method. This study also makes use of principle component analysis in index construction. Findings The results indicate that economic growth positively impacts regions’ FD. The mediating term has a negative impact on FD when the inflation rate rises. The finding indicates after the 3.5% threshold limit, inflation changes its positive effect on FD. The constructed index is a superior measurement of FD because it controls measurement sensitivity and offers significant results. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study in the context of SAARC to analyse the interaction effect of inflation on the growth–finance relationship. This study’s novelty is further ensured by estimating the threshold level of inflation and construction index.

本研究旨在探讨1990-2020年期间南亚区域国家联盟(SAARC)六国的经济增长和通货膨胀对金融发展(FD)的调节作用。此外，还估计了通货膨胀阈值水平和FD指数。设计/方法/方法本研究采用多项横断面相关性检验、混合平均组和面板完全修正最小二乘法。本研究还将主成分分析法应用于指标构建。研究结果表明，经济增长对区域FD有正向影响。当通货膨胀率上升时，中介项对FD产生负向影响。这一发现表明，在3.5%的阈值限制之后，通货膨胀改变了其对FD的积极影响。所构建的指数是FD的一种优越的测量方法，因为它控制了测量灵敏度并提供了显著的结果。据作者所知，这是第一次在南盟背景下分析通货膨胀对增长-金融关系的相互作用的实证研究。通过对通货膨胀阈值和建设指数的估计，进一步保证了本研究的新颖性。

{"title":"Revisiting the financial development and economic growth nexus: empirical evidence from SAARC countries","authors":"Muzffar Hussain Dar, Md Zulquar Nain","doi":"10.1108/jfep-06-2023-0154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-06-2023-0154","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to examine the effect of economic growth and the moderating impact of inflation on financial development (FD) for six South Asian Association of Regional Countries (SAARC)es during the period of 1990–2020. Besides, the inflation threshold level and FD index are also estimated. Design/methodology/approach This study uses several cross-sectional dependency tests, pooled mean group and panel fully modified least squares method. This study also makes use of principle component analysis in index construction. Findings The results indicate that economic growth positively impacts regions’ FD. The mediating term has a negative impact on FD when the inflation rate rises. The finding indicates after the 3.5% threshold limit, inflation changes its positive effect on FD. The constructed index is a superior measurement of FD because it controls measurement sensitivity and offers significant results. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first empirical study in the context of SAARC to analyse the interaction effect of inflation on the growth–finance relationship. This study’s novelty is further ensured by estimating the threshold level of inflation and construction index.","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135930600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Drivers of financial stability gap: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa 金融稳定差距的驱动因素:来自撒哈拉以南非洲的证据

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0184

Evans Kulu, Bismark Osei

Purpose As an effort to support the quest for a stable financial sector, this study aims to determine the factors that contribute to the financial stability gap in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Design/methodology/approach The estimation techniques used include the fixed and random effect, system general methods of moments and dominance analysis. The data used is annual data for 33 SSA countries, covering the period 2007 to 2018. Findings Key findings from the analyses indicate that nonperforming loans increase gaps in financial stability while regulatory quality, control of corruption, political stability and appreciation of the local currency reduce the financial stability gap in SSA. Research limitations/implications The absence of a specific metric for measuring the financial stability gap appears to be the limitation of this study. Its existence could improve the discussion and also make replicability easier. However, this study relies on a measure introduced by Kulu et al. (2022b), which is also acceptable and quite popular in the literature. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first in the finance literature to estimate the determinants of the financial stability gap in SSA.

为了支持对稳定金融部门的追求，本研究旨在确定导致撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)金融稳定差距的因素。使用的估计技术包括固定效应和随机效应、系统一般矩法和优势分析。使用的数据是33个SSA国家的年度数据，涵盖2007年至2018年。分析的主要发现表明，不良贷款扩大了金融稳定差距，而监管质量、腐败控制、政治稳定和本币升值则缩小了SSA的金融稳定差距。研究的局限性/启示缺乏衡量金融稳定差距的具体指标似乎是本研究的局限性。它的存在可以改善讨论，也使可复制性更容易。然而，本研究依赖于Kulu等人(2022b)引入的一种测量方法，该方法在文献中也是可以接受且相当流行的。据作者所知，本研究是金融文献中第一个估计SSA中金融稳定差距的决定因素的研究。

{"title":"Drivers of financial stability gap: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Evans Kulu, Bismark Osei","doi":"10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-07-2023-0184","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose As an effort to support the quest for a stable financial sector, this study aims to determine the factors that contribute to the financial stability gap in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Design/methodology/approach The estimation techniques used include the fixed and random effect, system general methods of moments and dominance analysis. The data used is annual data for 33 SSA countries, covering the period 2007 to 2018. Findings Key findings from the analyses indicate that nonperforming loans increase gaps in financial stability while regulatory quality, control of corruption, political stability and appreciation of the local currency reduce the financial stability gap in SSA. Research limitations/implications The absence of a specific metric for measuring the financial stability gap appears to be the limitation of this study. Its existence could improve the discussion and also make replicability easier. However, this study relies on a measure introduced by Kulu et al. (2022b), which is also acceptable and quite popular in the literature. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first in the finance literature to estimate the determinants of the financial stability gap in SSA.","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135219770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Short- and long-term impacts of merger activities in the banking industry: evidence from an emerging market 银行业并购活动的短期和长期影响:来自新兴市场的证据

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-10-19 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-08-2023-0223

Mohammad Alsharif

Purpose This study aims to examine in depth the impact of merger activities on banks in Saudi Arabia. Design/methodology/approach Event study, financial ratio and efficient frontier analyses with a mixture of parametric and non-parametric tests are used for the sample period 2016Q1–2022Q4. Findings Event study analysis shows that merging banks (bidders) have higher positive cumulative abnormal returns than merged banks (targets), indicating that investors believe that bidding banks will benefit the most from the merger strategy. It was also found that the efficiency measures of the combined banks of Saudi British Bank and Alawwal Bank deteriorated, while they improved for the combined banks of National Commercial Bank and Saudi American Bank in the post-merger period, confirming investors' views. Research limitations/implications Although the study focuses on the Saudi banking sector, its findings could be generalized to other banks in the region, as the Saudi banking sector is one of the largest in the Middle East region and is expected to grow further in the future. Practical implications The mere act of merging two banks does not guarantee the realization of cost synergies or efficiency gains. This research shows that mergers are not automatically cost-effective and that their success depends on good integration and restructuring strategies. Originality/value To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study to provide a comprehensive analysis of the short- and long-term impacts of merger activities in the Saudi banking sector.

本研究旨在深入研究合并活动对沙特阿拉伯银行的影响。设计/方法/方法2016Q1-2022Q4样本期间使用事件研究、财务比率和有效前沿分析，并混合使用参数和非参数测试。事件研究分析表明，并购银行(竞标方)的正累积异常收益高于被并购银行(目标方)，表明投资者认为竞标银行将从并购战略中获益最多。同时发现合并后的沙特英国银行和Alawwal银行合并后的效率指标出现恶化，而国民商业银行和沙特美国银行合并后的效率指标有所改善，证实了投资者的观点。虽然这项研究的重点是沙特银行业，但其研究结果可以推广到该地区的其他银行，因为沙特银行业是中东地区最大的银行业之一，预计未来还会进一步增长。单纯的银行合并行为并不能保证实现成本协同效应或效率提升。研究表明，并购并不会自动产生成本效益，并购的成功取决于良好的整合和重组策略。原创性/价值据作者所知，这是第一个对沙特银行业合并活动的短期和长期影响进行全面分析的研究。

{"title":"Short- and long-term impacts of merger activities in the banking industry: evidence from an emerging market","authors":"Mohammad Alsharif","doi":"10.1108/jfep-08-2023-0223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-08-2023-0223","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to examine in depth the impact of merger activities on banks in Saudi Arabia. Design/methodology/approach Event study, financial ratio and efficient frontier analyses with a mixture of parametric and non-parametric tests are used for the sample period 2016Q1–2022Q4. Findings Event study analysis shows that merging banks (bidders) have higher positive cumulative abnormal returns than merged banks (targets), indicating that investors believe that bidding banks will benefit the most from the merger strategy. It was also found that the efficiency measures of the combined banks of Saudi British Bank and Alawwal Bank deteriorated, while they improved for the combined banks of National Commercial Bank and Saudi American Bank in the post-merger period, confirming investors' views. Research limitations/implications Although the study focuses on the Saudi banking sector, its findings could be generalized to other banks in the region, as the Saudi banking sector is one of the largest in the Middle East region and is expected to grow further in the future. Practical implications The mere act of merging two banks does not guarantee the realization of cost synergies or efficiency gains. This research shows that mergers are not automatically cost-effective and that their success depends on good integration and restructuring strategies. Originality/value To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study to provide a comprehensive analysis of the short- and long-term impacts of merger activities in the Saudi banking sector.","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135666610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Exploring the nonlinear effect of shadow economies on sustainable development in Africa: does the level of financial market development matter? 探讨非洲影子经济对可持续发展的非线性影响:金融市场发展水平是否重要?

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Journal of Financial Economic Policy

Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1108/jfep-06-2023-0146

Baah Aye Kusi

Purpose This study aims to examine the nonlinear threshold effect of shadow economy on sustainable development in Africa while providing additional evidence on how this nonlinear threshold effect play out in economies with high and low developed financial/credit markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses 37 African economies between 2009 and 2017 in a dynamic GMM panel model that controls for country, year and technological effects to ensure consistency and reliability of results and findings. Findings The results reveal that there is an inverted nonlinear U-shape nexus between the size of shadow economy and sustainable development in both short run and long run in Africa and across economies with high and low developed credit/financial market. Also, the threshold points beyond which the size of shadow economies dampens sustainable development is lower for economies with high financial/credit market development and higher in the long run. Practical implications These results have policy implications and recommendations and suggest that shadow economies can be beneficial to sustainable development particularly when the size of shadow economies are restrained from increasing beyond certain thresholds/levels. Moreso, to restrict the adverse effect of shadow economies on sustainable development, policymakers can rely on developing their financial/credit markets to tame the destructive nature of shadow economies on sustainable development. These results are robust to technological, year/time and country effects. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study examines for the first in the context of Africa, the nonlinear effect of shadow economies on sustainable development under low and high developed financial markets.

本研究旨在考察影子经济对非洲可持续发展的非线性阈值效应，同时为这种非线性阈值效应如何在金融/信贷市场发达和不发达的经济体中发挥作用提供额外证据。本研究在动态GMM面板模型中使用了2009年至2017年间的37个非洲经济体，该模型控制了国家、年份和技术影响，以确保结果和发现的一致性和可靠性。研究结果表明，无论是在非洲，还是在信贷/金融市场发达程度较高和较低的经济体中，影子经济规模与可持续发展的短期和长期都存在倒非线性u型关系。此外，对于金融/信贷市场高度发达的经济体，影子经济规模对可持续发展的影响阈值较低，而从长期来看则较高。这些结果具有政策意义和建议，并表明影子经济可能有利于可持续发展，特别是当影子经济的规模被限制在不超过一定阈值/水平时。此外，为了限制影子经济对可持续发展的不利影响，决策者可以依靠发展其金融/信贷市场来驯服影子经济对可持续发展的破坏性。这些结果不受技术、年份/时间和国家的影响。原创性/价值据作者所知，本研究首次在非洲背景下考察了影子经济在低发达和高发达金融市场下对可持续发展的非线性影响。

{"title":"Exploring the nonlinear effect of shadow economies on sustainable development in Africa: does the level of financial market development matter?","authors":"Baah Aye Kusi","doi":"10.1108/jfep-06-2023-0146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-06-2023-0146","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose This study aims to examine the nonlinear threshold effect of shadow economy on sustainable development in Africa while providing additional evidence on how this nonlinear threshold effect play out in economies with high and low developed financial/credit markets. Design/methodology/approach This study uses 37 African economies between 2009 and 2017 in a dynamic GMM panel model that controls for country, year and technological effects to ensure consistency and reliability of results and findings. Findings The results reveal that there is an inverted nonlinear U-shape nexus between the size of shadow economy and sustainable development in both short run and long run in Africa and across economies with high and low developed credit/financial market. Also, the threshold points beyond which the size of shadow economies dampens sustainable development is lower for economies with high financial/credit market development and higher in the long run. Practical implications These results have policy implications and recommendations and suggest that shadow economies can be beneficial to sustainable development particularly when the size of shadow economies are restrained from increasing beyond certain thresholds/levels. Moreso, to restrict the adverse effect of shadow economies on sustainable development, policymakers can rely on developing their financial/credit markets to tame the destructive nature of shadow economies on sustainable development. These results are robust to technological, year/time and country effects. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study examines for the first in the context of Africa, the nonlinear effect of shadow economies on sustainable development under low and high developed financial markets.","PeriodicalId":45556,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Financial Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136078592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0