Journal of Financial Economic Policy最新文献

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the efficiency of Indian commercial banks from 2002 to 2018 using the stochastic frontier analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the parametric approach of the stochastic frontier to examine the technical efficiency of banks acknowledging exogenous shocks, omitted variables and measurement errors, filling a gap in the existing financial literature. The scope of this study was constrained to 71 scheduled commercial banks to make it manageable and productive with 1,036 observations.

Findings

The results show that the mean technical efficiency of new private banks remained constant at 92.7% during the study period because of technology diffusion in banking systems. The technical efficiency of the nationalized, old private and foreign banks has enhanced over the period because of the efficient utilization of various innovative information technology services such as mobile banking, cheque truncation system, magnetic ink character recognition. However, the foreign banks are still laggards with a mean technical efficiency of 81.7%. The empirical findings suggest that new private sector banks depict higher efficiency than nationalized, old private and foreign banks.

Research limitations/implications

This study’s sample represents all categories of banks (public, private and foreign) including the banks that merged or consolidated during the period of study. To achieve the desired results, the authors incorporate the consolidated and merged banks in their data set. Further, the authors excluded all scheduled small finance banks and scheduled payment banks from their analysis, as these entities commenced operations post-2015. Additionally, the authors also excluded regional rural banks because of their distinct mandate aimed at servicing the rural populace and agricultural sector.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature on the performance of conventional banks in general and emerging markets, in particular, using the most recent data and covering a relatively long period using the stochastic frontier approach.

Purpose

This study aims to examine the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate cash holdings in an emerging market, India. It also investigates whether the effect of GPR on cash holdings varies across financially constrained and unconstrained firms, and across the different sectors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the fixed-effect regression model to examine the effect of GPR on the corporate cash holdings of 2090 Indian firms from 2003 to 2021. To correct the potential endogeneity issue and ensure the robustness of the results, this study uses two-stage least squares regression, alternative cash holdings proxies, GPR measures and across the different periods (Global financial crisis and COVID-19).

Findings

The paper finds that GPR has a positive impact on the cash holdings of Indian firms. The authors also find that the positive relationship between GPR and cash holdings is consistent for financially constrained and unconstrained firms. Furthermore, the results also show that firms in the construction sector maintain higher cash reserves than other sectors.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first-ever studies which examines the effect of GPR on corporate cash holding for an emerging economy like India. The use of alternative measures of cash holding, GPR, and estimation methods make this study more robust.

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between external debt and inflation in Jordan over the period 1970 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The external debt–inflation nexus is examined within a multivariate framework by including other determinants of inflation, including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate. This study uses an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to test the existence of a long-run relationship between the inflation rate and its drivers. An error correction model is estimated to reveal the short-run dynamics of the series. The direction of causality among the variables is examined using a modified version of the Granger non-causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The analyses control for the presence of structural breaks in the underlying time series.

Findings

The empirical results show that external debt and money supply have a statistically significant positive effect on inflation in the long run. The authors also find that a nominal depreciation of the Jordanian Dinar raises inflation rates in the long run. The Toda–Yamamoto Granger non-causality test findings reveal a statistically significant bi-directional positive causality between inflation and external debt, between the nominal effective exchange rate and inflation and between money supply and inflation.

Practical implications

Proper management of the exchange rate policy, money supply and external debt levels is crucial to control inflation rates in Jordan.

Originality/value

To date, the authors are unaware of any empirical study that examines the impact of external debt on inflation in Jordan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on Indian equity market sectors. The effect of domestic (Indian) and foreign (USA) EPU shocks is examined on ten major Bombay Stock Exchange sectors.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses data covering the period from September 2005 to July 2023 and uses the methodology of quantile regression to investigate the heterogenous response of stock market sectors under diverse market conditions explained through the analysis of conditional quantiles distribution.

Findings

The results demonstrate that domestic and foreign EPU shocks negatively affect most of the sectors in bearish market conditions. Industrials, commodities, utilities, consumer discretionary and financial services are the most affected sectors by domestic EPU. However, the information technology sector is found to be immune to domestic EPU shocks but negatively affected by foreign EPU shocks. On the other hand, energy, financial services and fast-moving consumer goods sectors are found to be immune to foreign EPU shocks but are negatively affected by domestic EPU shocks.

Practical implications

Understanding the heterogeneous response of different sectors to EPU shocks could help investors and portfolio managers identify portfolio diversification opportunities.

Originality/value

This study makes an inaugural attempt to examine the responses of Indian stock market sectors to domestic and foreign EPU shocks using the approach of quantile regression and unveils the previously unexamined diverse reactions of Indian stock market sectors to EPU shocks originating from both India and USA.

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the sentiment connectedness among 10 European stock markets between January 2020 and July 2022, associating such connectedness with the level of the geopolitical risk index.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive connectedness framework is used.

Findings

Results show a high degree of sentiment connectedness. Overall, the sentiments of Portugal, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Germany and Italy are net transmitters of shocks while those of Poland, Sweden, Norway and Romania are net receivers. Additional evidence indicates that when geopolitical risks increase, the sentiment connectedness tends to decrease. However, the reverse holds under extremely high levels of geopolitical risks.

Originality/value

Overall, this study provides some significant contributions to the literature. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is among the first few studies to examine the dynamic connectedness among stock market sentiment across countries. This issue needs special consideration for European countries because of their close geographical distance and strong integration due to the European Union’s co-development strategies. Second, the association of sentiment connectedness with geopolitical risk is examined for the first time. This is even more meaningful in the context of growing geopolitical risks stemming from the Ukraine war, which could affect international financial markets.

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the amount and direction of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) spillover among six emerging market economies (EMEs), and to also ascertain arguments on the increased volatilities of uncertainty in most EMEs.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts a recent methodology developed by Baruník and Krehlík’s (2018) methodology to measure pairwise, composite and net spillover. This methodology helps investigate the size and direction of EPU spillover in EMEs. The unique feature of this methodology is its ability to capture frequency domain as well as time-frequency dynamics.

Findings

Inter-country static spillover connectedness among the EPU of the selected EMEs show that Korea-EPU is the main transmitter and recipient of spillover shocks among the EMEs across all frequency bands. The findings from this study also show evidence of spillover between EPU, GDP and SPX across the EMEs. The time-varying total spillover index analysis shows evidence of overall connectedness across the selected EMEs. Overall connectedness is highest in the short term. We document that global economic and financial events intensify the volatility of the total spillover across the selected EMEs.

Originality/value

This study extends the literature on studies conducted on EMEs as studies on EPU spillover has mainly focused on advanced economies. To address the limitation of previous empirical studies that were unable to address the amount and direction of spillover from a country to other countries, this study offers new insight on country-specific spillover amounts and causal patterns “to” and “from” the selected EMEs. The findings throw more light on the network connectedness across EMEs and hence aids investors to undertake precise investment decisions and intelligently plan their portfolio diversification strategies. We then introduce two new variables to the analysis and record evidence of high connectedness between EPU, gross domestic product and share price index in all the frequency bands.

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the heterogeneous effects of macroeconomic and financial factors across various distributions of financial deepening in 22 African countries over the past two decades (2000–2019).

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a recent method of moments quantile regression, which accounts for the often overlooked heterogeneity effects. The analysis focuses on the banking sector, which is predominant in Africa, using a broad range of macroeconomic and financial indicators.

Findings

The findings show that gross domestic product per capita positively and significantly impacts financing deepening with an increasing marginal benefit as depth increases. Trade openness positively and substantially affects only high financial deepening. Real interest rate, real exchange rate and inflations negatively and significantly affect financial deepening, especially at higher than lower levels. Financial stability positively and substantially influences financial deepening with an increasing marginal benefit as the depth increases. Bank lending interest rate, bank lending–deposit rate spread, bank concentration and return on equity negatively and substantially impact higher levels of financial deepening than lower levels.

Practical implications

These findings are crucial to policymakers and development partners, as promoting a favourable financial environment and stable macroeconomic policies based on the heterogeneity of financial depths can increase debt financing in Africa.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is one of the first attempts to analyse the heterogeneous effects of macroeconomic and financial determinants on varying levels of financial depth in Africa.

Purpose

A host of studies have assessed the determinants of bank liquidity creation, highlighting the relevance of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. However, whether and how social unrest impacts bank liquidity creation remains a moot issue. To inform this debate, this study aims to exploit bank-level data for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries covering the period 2010–2019 to assess the interlinkage between social unrest and bank liquidity creation.

Design/methodology/approach

In view of the staggered inception of social unrest across MENA countries, the author uses a difference-in-differences specification to tease out the causal impact.

Findings

The findings reveal that the Arab Spring improves liquidity creation after onboarding after confounding factors. This impact differs across conventional and Islamic banks and differs across asset side (market) and liability side (funding) liquidity creation. The evidence also underscores the positive real effects of such liquidity creation on real economic output.

Originality/value

This is one of the early studies exploiting a large sample of MENA banks to examine this issue in a systematic manner.

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between profitability, credit risk, liquidity risk and capital in Indonesian banking industry.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use a panel vector autoregression model that incorporates macroeconomic variables: growth, interest rate, foreign exchange. The analysis is based on a monthly panel data set of 88 banks spanning from January 2012 to September 2021, which comprises 10,296 bank-month observations.

Findings

Our key findings highlight (i) permanent credit cost and liquidity cost pass through practices, (ii) complementary function of liquidity and capital, (iii) earning management motivated asset write off and (iv) credit risk-liquidity risk neutrality. In addition, the authors observe that the banks demonstrated resilience to macroeconomic shocks.

Research limitations/implications

Our study have shown some interesting dynamic patterns of fundamentals; nevertheless, unified theoretical underpinning of the process is still unavailable. This should be an important future reasearch avenue.

Practical implications

The study brings significant implications for regulatory and supervisory practices aimed at enhancing the financial stability of banks.

Originality/value

We conduct estimation of Indonesian banks system in dynamic perspective and perform impulses responses.

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate whether negative and positive monetary policy (MP) shocks have asymmetric impacts on corporate firms’ investment decisions in Pakistan using firm-level panel data set. Moreover, the authors emphasized on symmetric effects of MP; the authors examine whether high-leverage and low-leverage firms respond differently to negative and positive unanticipated shocks in MP instruments.

Design/methodology/approach

In contrast to the conventional framework of VAR, it uses an alternative methodology of Taylor rule to estimate unanticipated MP shocks. The two-step system-generalized method of movement (GMM) estimation method is applied to examine the effect of MP shocks on firm investment through leverage-based asymmetry.

Findings

The two-step system-GMM estimation results indicate that unanticipated negative changes (unfavorable shocks) in MP instruments have negative, significant effects on investment. In contrast, unanticipated positive changes (favorable shocks) have statistically insignificant impacts on firm investment. The results also reveal that firm leverage has a significant role in establishing the effect of unanticipated negative changes in MP instruments on investments. Finally, the results indicate that high-leverage firms respond more to negative changes than low-leverage firms. Yet, the results show that only low-leverage firms positively respond to unanticipated positive shocks in MP.

Practical implications

The findings of the paper suggest that MP authorities should pay due attention to the asymmetric effects of MP shocks on firm investment while designing MP. Because firm leverage has a significant influence on the effects of MP shocks, firm managers should take into account such role of leverage while deciding capital structure of their firms.

Originality/value

First, unlike “Keynesian asymmetry” and most of published empirical research work, the authors use both unanticipated negative and positive MP shocks simultaneously. Departing from the conventional empirical literature, the authors differentiate between unanticipated positive and negative shocks in MP using the backward-looking Taylor rule. Second, the authors contribute to the existing literature by investigating the differential effects of positive and negative unanticipated MP shocks on firms’ investment decisions. Unlike the published studies that have emphasized on the symmetric effects of MP, the authors examine whether high-leverage and low-leverage firms respond differently to negative and positive unanticipated shocks in MP instruments.