Journal of Financial Economic Policy最新文献

Purpose

Financial inclusion is acknowledged as a critical facilitator of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals agenda for 2030. Therefore, this study aims to examine the asymmetric role of overall globalization on financial inclusion by controlling economic growth, urbanization and population for the selected South Asian countries.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration explores the impact of overall globalization on financial inclusion in the presence of additional variables like economic growth, urbanization and population in the designed financial inclusion function.

Findings

The estimated econometric outcomes show that increasing overall globalization fosters financial inclusion while decreasing overall globalization reduces financial inclusion. Furthermore, a positive (negative) change in economic growth leads to an increase (decrease) in financial inclusion while varying short-run findings. Moreover, both positive and negative changes increase financial inclusion in the long run in connection with urbanization. Although the short-run results are not significant, the study finds that an increase (decrease) in population leads to a decrease (increase) in financial inclusion. Finally, to support the promotion of financial inclusivity throughout South Asia, several policies pertaining to financial inclusion are suggested.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the asymmetries related to overall globalization on financial inclusion by controlling economic growth, urbanization and population.

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the effects of macroprudential policies in Brazil on the banking sector.

Design/methodology/approach

Autoregressive models with distributed lags (ADL) are estimated to verify whether such regulatory measures affected the volume of credit, the banking spread and the concentration index of the five largest Brazilian banks. In addition to the variables of interest, monthly macroeconomic data from 2011 to 2021 are considered.

Findings

Our results suggest that macroprudential policies are effective in reducing credit volume. More importantly, our findings highlight two possible adverse effects of these instruments. Firstly, macroprudential tightenings are associated with increases in bank spread. Secondly, tightening measures contribute to increasing bank market concentration.

Originality/value

These findings are useful for the scientific literature that investigates the regulation of the financial system by providing empirical evidence of the effects of Brazilian macroprudential measures on investors, policymakers and other economic agents whose well-being is associated with economic stability.

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the long-run relationship between stock market development and Nigerian economic growth from 1980 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

Market capitalization, number of listed companies, total value traded ratio and turnover ratio are used. An autoregressive distributed lag model is used for the analysis.

Findings

The market capitalization ratio and turnover ratio have positively significant links with economic growth. The number of listed companies has a negative and non-significant impact on economic growth. Total value traded ratio has a negatively significant link with economic growth in the short run. The positive but insignificant relationship between traded value ratio and turnover ratio in the long run growth means that the Nigerian stock market is growth inducing and on the right track as stock market liquidity drives growth.

Research limitations/implications

The government and Security Exchange Commission should increase the market liquidity level by improving the trading infrastructure. The government and regulatory authorities should improve and effectively implement the existing policies that would ensure stock market growth. This facilitates the investors’ speed to purchase and sell shares. The Securities and Exchange Commission should reduce transaction costs to encourage active trading activities. The market should be diversified with investment instruments such as derivatives, futures and swap options which would limit the adverse effect of listed companies in the market. To increase the stock market liquidity, the Security and Exchange Commission should apply moral suasion to bring private companies that have met certain financial thresholds to convert to public companies. Government should improve on the legislation to encourage more private companies to list on the stock exchange.

Originality/value

The study findings add value in that stock market development has a positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria.

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the efficiency of Indian commercial banks from 2002 to 2018 using the stochastic frontier analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the parametric approach of the stochastic frontier to examine the technical efficiency of banks acknowledging exogenous shocks, omitted variables and measurement errors, filling a gap in the existing financial literature. The scope of this study was constrained to 71 scheduled commercial banks to make it manageable and productive with 1,036 observations.

Findings

The results show that the mean technical efficiency of new private banks remained constant at 92.7% during the study period because of technology diffusion in banking systems. The technical efficiency of the nationalized, old private and foreign banks has enhanced over the period because of the efficient utilization of various innovative information technology services such as mobile banking, cheque truncation system, magnetic ink character recognition. However, the foreign banks are still laggards with a mean technical efficiency of 81.7%. The empirical findings suggest that new private sector banks depict higher efficiency than nationalized, old private and foreign banks.

Research limitations/implications

This study’s sample represents all categories of banks (public, private and foreign) including the banks that merged or consolidated during the period of study. To achieve the desired results, the authors incorporate the consolidated and merged banks in their data set. Further, the authors excluded all scheduled small finance banks and scheduled payment banks from their analysis, as these entities commenced operations post-2015. Additionally, the authors also excluded regional rural banks because of their distinct mandate aimed at servicing the rural populace and agricultural sector.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature on the performance of conventional banks in general and emerging markets, in particular, using the most recent data and covering a relatively long period using the stochastic frontier approach.

Purpose

This study aims to examine the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate cash holdings in an emerging market, India. It also investigates whether the effect of GPR on cash holdings varies across financially constrained and unconstrained firms, and across the different sectors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the fixed-effect regression model to examine the effect of GPR on the corporate cash holdings of 2090 Indian firms from 2003 to 2021. To correct the potential endogeneity issue and ensure the robustness of the results, this study uses two-stage least squares regression, alternative cash holdings proxies, GPR measures and across the different periods (Global financial crisis and COVID-19).

Findings

The paper finds that GPR has a positive impact on the cash holdings of Indian firms. The authors also find that the positive relationship between GPR and cash holdings is consistent for financially constrained and unconstrained firms. Furthermore, the results also show that firms in the construction sector maintain higher cash reserves than other sectors.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first-ever studies which examines the effect of GPR on corporate cash holding for an emerging economy like India. The use of alternative measures of cash holding, GPR, and estimation methods make this study more robust.

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between external debt and inflation in Jordan over the period 1970 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The external debt–inflation nexus is examined within a multivariate framework by including other determinants of inflation, including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate. This study uses an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to test the existence of a long-run relationship between the inflation rate and its drivers. An error correction model is estimated to reveal the short-run dynamics of the series. The direction of causality among the variables is examined using a modified version of the Granger non-causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The analyses control for the presence of structural breaks in the underlying time series.

Findings

The empirical results show that external debt and money supply have a statistically significant positive effect on inflation in the long run. The authors also find that a nominal depreciation of the Jordanian Dinar raises inflation rates in the long run. The Toda–Yamamoto Granger non-causality test findings reveal a statistically significant bi-directional positive causality between inflation and external debt, between the nominal effective exchange rate and inflation and between money supply and inflation.

Practical implications

Proper management of the exchange rate policy, money supply and external debt levels is crucial to control inflation rates in Jordan.

Originality/value

To date, the authors are unaware of any empirical study that examines the impact of external debt on inflation in Jordan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on Indian equity market sectors. The effect of domestic (Indian) and foreign (USA) EPU shocks is examined on ten major Bombay Stock Exchange sectors.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses data covering the period from September 2005 to July 2023 and uses the methodology of quantile regression to investigate the heterogenous response of stock market sectors under diverse market conditions explained through the analysis of conditional quantiles distribution.

Findings

The results demonstrate that domestic and foreign EPU shocks negatively affect most of the sectors in bearish market conditions. Industrials, commodities, utilities, consumer discretionary and financial services are the most affected sectors by domestic EPU. However, the information technology sector is found to be immune to domestic EPU shocks but negatively affected by foreign EPU shocks. On the other hand, energy, financial services and fast-moving consumer goods sectors are found to be immune to foreign EPU shocks but are negatively affected by domestic EPU shocks.

Practical implications

Understanding the heterogeneous response of different sectors to EPU shocks could help investors and portfolio managers identify portfolio diversification opportunities.

Originality/value

This study makes an inaugural attempt to examine the responses of Indian stock market sectors to domestic and foreign EPU shocks using the approach of quantile regression and unveils the previously unexamined diverse reactions of Indian stock market sectors to EPU shocks originating from both India and USA.

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the sentiment connectedness among 10 European stock markets between January 2020 and July 2022, associating such connectedness with the level of the geopolitical risk index.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive connectedness framework is used.

Findings

Results show a high degree of sentiment connectedness. Overall, the sentiments of Portugal, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Germany and Italy are net transmitters of shocks while those of Poland, Sweden, Norway and Romania are net receivers. Additional evidence indicates that when geopolitical risks increase, the sentiment connectedness tends to decrease. However, the reverse holds under extremely high levels of geopolitical risks.

Originality/value

Overall, this study provides some significant contributions to the literature. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is among the first few studies to examine the dynamic connectedness among stock market sentiment across countries. This issue needs special consideration for European countries because of their close geographical distance and strong integration due to the European Union’s co-development strategies. Second, the association of sentiment connectedness with geopolitical risk is examined for the first time. This is even more meaningful in the context of growing geopolitical risks stemming from the Ukraine war, which could affect international financial markets.