Following the covid-induced lockdowns, many commented on the role the German model of Kurzarbeit could play in reducing unemployment. Other countries emulated the model. Looking at the experiences of Germany, the UK, Sweden and the USA, the article analyses the strengths and weaknesses of short-time working (STW) schemes. It asks whether STW has been well designed to have optimal short and longer run impact. It is quite effective as a short-term palliative, but in longer downturns, its weaknesses come to the fore. It is by no means clear that the UK needs a permanent replacement for the furlough.
{"title":"KURZARBEIT/SHORT TIME WORKING: EXPERIENCES AND LESSONS FROM THE COVID-INDUCED DOWNTURN","authors":"B. Casey, Ken Mayhew","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.46","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.46","url":null,"abstract":"Following the covid-induced lockdowns, many commented on the role the German model of Kurzarbeit could play in reducing unemployment. Other countries emulated the model. Looking at the experiences of Germany, the UK, Sweden and the USA, the article analyses the strengths and weaknesses of short-time working (STW) schemes. It asks whether STW has been well designed to have optimal short and longer run impact. It is quite effective as a short-term palliative, but in longer downturns, its weaknesses come to the fore. It is by no means clear that the UK needs a permanent replacement for the furlough.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42156232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.
{"title":"THE SAHM RULE AND PREDICTING THE GREAT RECESSION ACROSS OECD COUNTRIES","authors":"David G. Blanchflower, Alex Bryson","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.47","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We examine the start date of the Great Recession across OECD countries. The Sahm Rule identifies the start of recession in the US to the beginning of 2008 but in most other OECD countries it identifies the start after that identified by two successive falls in quarterly GDP. We establish our own rule for predicting recession using the fear of unemployment series to predict recession. We show a 10-point rise in the series compared to its previous 12 month low predicted the onset of the Great Recession in both the United States and Europe.</p>","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138532692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"REGIONAL DISPARITIES IN LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY AND THE ROLE OF CAPITAL STOCK—CORRIGENDUM","authors":"Ben Gardiner,Bernard Fingleton,Ron Martin","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.36","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"196 1","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138532694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Housing price comovements are an important issue in economics. This study focuses on monthly housing prices of 99 major cities in China for the years 2010–2019 by using correlation-based hierarchical analysis and synchronisation analysis, through which one could determine interactions and interdependence among the prices, heterogeneous patterns in price synchronisations and their changing paths over time. Empirical results show that the degree of comovements is slightly lower after March 2017 but no persistent drop is found. Several groups of cities are identified, each of which has its members showing relatively strong but volatile price synchronisations. Certain cities show potential of serving as price leaders within a group. Results here could be useful to policy analysis regarding housing price comovements.
{"title":"NETWORK ANALYSIS OF HOUSING PRICE COMOVEMENTS OF A HUNDRED CHINESE CITIES","authors":"Xiaojie Xu, Yun Zhang","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.34","url":null,"abstract":"Housing price comovements are an important issue in economics. This study focuses on monthly housing prices of 99 major cities in China for the years 2010–2019 by using correlation-based hierarchical analysis and synchronisation analysis, through which one could determine interactions and interdependence among the prices, heterogeneous patterns in price synchronisations and their changing paths over time. Empirical results show that the degree of comovements is slightly lower after March 2017 but no persistent drop is found. Several groups of cities are identified, each of which has its members showing relatively strong but volatile price synchronisations. Certain cities show potential of serving as price leaders within a group. Results here could be useful to policy analysis regarding housing price comovements.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47730429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article argues that it is a waste of time seeking to treat populists as examples of homo economicus when seeking to persuade them that the conspiracy theories to which they subscribe are big lies. But it does not follow that homo economicus is worthless in this context. He has a role in explaining the evolution of the social norms whose violation is the root cause of the rise of populist movements. Such an approach requires a willingness to entertain both proximate and ultimate explanations of human behaviour simultaneously.
{"title":"THINKING ABOUT SOCIAL NORMS","authors":"K. Binmore","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.2","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article argues that it is a waste of time seeking to treat populists as examples of homo economicus when seeking to persuade them that the conspiracy theories to which they subscribe are big lies. But it does not follow that homo economicus is worthless in this context. He has a role in explaining the evolution of the social norms whose violation is the root cause of the rise of populist movements. Such an approach requires a willingness to entertain both proximate and ultimate explanations of human behaviour simultaneously.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"20 - 30"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract How stable are democracies? Building on Ghosal and Proto (2009, Journal of Public Economics, 93, 1078–1089), the conditions under which democracies are stable are analyzed. How these conditions relate to the threat of the rise of right wing populism poses to democracies is discussed.
民主政体有多稳定?在Ghosal和Proto (2009, Journal of Public Economics, 93, 1078-1089)的基础上，分析了民主国家稳定的条件。本文讨论了这些条件与右翼民粹主义崛起对民主国家构成的威胁之间的关系。
{"title":"THE (IN)STABILITY OF DEMOCRACY","authors":"S. Ghosal, E. Proto","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.9","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How stable are democracies? Building on Ghosal and Proto (2009, Journal of Public Economics, 93, 1078–1089), the conditions under which democracies are stable are analyzed. How these conditions relate to the threat of the rise of right wing populism poses to democracies is discussed.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"62 - 66"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The article assesses economic development strategy in Wales since devolution. It considers theoretical views on success or failure of devolution to realise economic benefit, and reviews existing explanations of Wales’ lack of success in changing its position relative to other UK territories. The article develops a novel critique first of overall economic development strategy, suggesting problems of coherence, consistency and methods of implementation. It then critiques three policies that have had the potential to realise development strategy - transport, renewable energy and public procurement - again revealing problems of coherence, consistency, implementation and governance.
{"title":"REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE CASE OF WALES: THEORY AND PRACTICE AND PROBLEMS OF STRATEGY AND POLICY","authors":"J. Bradbury, A. Davies","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.26","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article assesses economic development strategy in Wales since devolution. It considers theoretical views on success or failure of devolution to realise economic benefit, and reviews existing explanations of Wales’ lack of success in changing its position relative to other UK territories. The article develops a novel critique first of overall economic development strategy, suggesting problems of coherence, consistency and methods of implementation. It then critiques three policies that have had the potential to realise development strategy - transport, renewable energy and public procurement - again revealing problems of coherence, consistency, implementation and governance.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"261 1","pages":"1 - 15"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 260 Cover and Front matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.34","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"f1 - f3"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 260 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.35","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"b1 - b2"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：