Abstract This paper uses economic history to probe the relationship between state capacity and economic growth during the Great and Little Divergences (c.1500–c.1850). It identifies flaws in the dominant measure of state capacity, fiscal capacity, and advocates instead analysing state expenditures. It investigates five key activities on which states historically spent resources: waging war; providing law and administration; building infrastructure; pursuing industrial policy; and fostering a national culture. The lesson of history, it concludes, is not to build a capacious state. Rather, we need a state that uses its capacity to help (or at least not hinder) market activity.
{"title":"STATE CAPACITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CAUTIONARY TALES FROM HISTORY","authors":"Sheilagh Ogilvie","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.42","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper uses economic history to probe the relationship between state capacity and economic growth during the Great and Little Divergences (c.1500–c.1850). It identifies flaws in the dominant measure of state capacity, fiscal capacity, and advocates instead analysing state expenditures. It investigates five key activities on which states historically spent resources: waging war; providing law and administration; building infrastructure; pursuing industrial policy; and fostering a national culture. The lesson of history, it concludes, is not to build a capacious state. Rather, we need a state that uses its capacity to help (or at least not hinder) market activity.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"262 1","pages":"28 - 50"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43915698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.
{"title":"THE ECONOMY AND POLICY TRADE-OFFS","authors":"Silvana Tenreyro","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.41","url":null,"abstract":"Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"262 1","pages":"51 - 65"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47117129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This note provides a nontechnical summary of a research paper (Bullard and DiCecio [2021, Classical policy benchmarks for economies with substantial inequality, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, unpublished manuscript]) that I presented as the NIESR 2021 Dow Lecture on 9 February 2021. In the paper, we construct a simple benchmark macroeconomic model with substantial heterogeneity among households, enough to generate empirically plausible Gini coefficients for the distributions of consumption, income and financial wealth. The model includes aggregate shocks as well as both permanent and temporary idiosyncratic uncertainties. Four policymakers—implementing monetary, fiscal, labour market and education policies—act in concert to achieve a first-best allocation of resources. We argue that the roles of these policymaker types are ‘classic’ and match up well with observed policymaker roles in OECD countries. We regard this simple economy as a benchmark for the study of other aspects of the interaction between policy and inequality.
{"title":"CLASSIC POLICY BENCHMARKS AND INEQUALITY","authors":"James Bullard","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.39","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This note provides a nontechnical summary of a research paper (Bullard and DiCecio [2021, Classical policy benchmarks for economies with substantial inequality, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, unpublished manuscript]) that I presented as the NIESR 2021 Dow Lecture on 9 February 2021. In the paper, we construct a simple benchmark macroeconomic model with substantial heterogeneity among households, enough to generate empirically plausible Gini coefficients for the distributions of consumption, income and financial wealth. The model includes aggregate shocks as well as both permanent and temporary idiosyncratic uncertainties. Four policymakers—implementing monetary, fiscal, labour market and education policies—act in concert to achieve a first-best allocation of resources. We argue that the roles of these policymaker types are ‘classic’ and match up well with observed policymaker roles in OECD countries. We regard this simple economy as a benchmark for the study of other aspects of the interaction between policy and inequality.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"262 1","pages":"8 - 12"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42118259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
{"title":"NIE volume 264 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2023.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2023.33","url":null,"abstract":"An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135759242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract After the publication of the Government’s ‘Levelling Up’ White Paper, this paper reviews the role of institutions and governance structures across English regions in tackling spatial inequality and low productivity. It considers the recent history and changing roles of local and regional organisations and the overarching policy frameworks that oversee them as a key element of tackling spatial inequality and low productivity. Specifically, the paper looks at the frequent changes to institutional arrangements supporting economic development and the process of allocating competitive funds to local and regional bodies.
{"title":"THE POLITICS OF LEVELLING UP: DEVOLUTION, INSTITUTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY IN ENGLAND","authors":"A. Westwood, M. Sensier, Nicola Pike","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.29","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract After the publication of the Government’s ‘Levelling Up’ White Paper, this paper reviews the role of institutions and governance structures across English regions in tackling spatial inequality and low productivity. It considers the recent history and changing roles of local and regional organisations and the overarching policy frameworks that oversee them as a key element of tackling spatial inequality and low productivity. Specifically, the paper looks at the frequent changes to institutional arrangements supporting economic development and the process of allocating competitive funds to local and regional bodies.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"261 1","pages":"99 - 116"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47906731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Inflation rates and their convergence within Euro area have been a major concern, since well before the advent of the single currency. Inflation differentials are a normal phenomenon in any monetary union and even in long-established monetary unions. The aim of this research is to examine the main factors of inflation differentials in the Euro-zone for the period 1999–2018. Our empirical estimates appear to suggest that a one-percentage-point increase in the positive output gap typically leads to an increase of about 20 basis points in the inflation rate of EMU countries. We also find three structural breaks, in 2004, 2008 and in 2010. Since the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is geared at maintaining low and stable inflation, the productivity growth should be increased, and the real effective exchange rates should be decreased and become more homogeneous among EMU. Therefore, countries’ inflation differentials may become less persistent.
{"title":"INFLATION DIFFERENTIALS AMONG EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS","authors":"T. Stylianou","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.25","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Inflation rates and their convergence within Euro area have been a major concern, since well before the advent of the single currency. Inflation differentials are a normal phenomenon in any monetary union and even in long-established monetary unions. The aim of this research is to examine the main factors of inflation differentials in the Euro-zone for the period 1999–2018. Our empirical estimates appear to suggest that a one-percentage-point increase in the positive output gap typically leads to an increase of about 20 basis points in the inflation rate of EMU countries. We also find three structural breaks, in 2004, 2008 and in 2010. Since the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is geared at maintaining low and stable inflation, the productivity growth should be increased, and the real effective exchange rates should be decreased and become more homogeneous among EMU. Therefore, countries’ inflation differentials may become less persistent.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42181548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the USA up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee 6–18 months before the date of recession. The consumer expectations data for 2021 and 2022 are consistent with recession.
我们展示了世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)和密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者预期指数,该指数提前18个月预测了美国全国和州一级的失业率上升。这些数据预测了美国国家经济研究局(NBER)商业周期确定委员会(Business Cycle Dating Committee)在衰退发生前6-18个月预测的过去6次衰退中的6次。2021年和2022年的消费者预期数据与衰退相符。
{"title":"THE ECONOMICS OF WALKING ABOUT AND PREDICTING UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE USA","authors":"David G. Blanchflower, Alex Bryson","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.18","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.18","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the USA up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee 6–18 months before the date of recession. The consumer expectations data for 2021 and 2022 are consistent with recession.</p>","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138532687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The pandemic-induced economic crisis has seen a massive increase in savings as households could not spend their income. The last time that consumers were seriously rationed was during the Second World War. This article models the behaviour of households during the War years and its immediate aftermath in Ireland, Sweden, the US and UK. Savings were held in liquid form and, once the War was over and rationing eased, a consumption boom transpired. However, significant excess savings were converted into physical assets in the housing market. There is evidence that this pattern is being repeated as the Covid-19 crisis eases.
{"title":"HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR UNDER RATIONING","authors":"J. Fitzgerald, S. Kenny, Alexandra L. Cermeño","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.19","url":null,"abstract":"The pandemic-induced economic crisis has seen a massive increase in savings as households could not spend their income. The last time that consumers were seriously rationed was during the Second World War. This article models the behaviour of households during the War years and its immediate aftermath in Ireland, Sweden, the US and UK. Savings were held in liquid form and, once the War was over and rationing eased, a consumption boom transpired. However, significant excess savings were converted into physical assets in the housing market. There is evidence that this pattern is being repeated as the Covid-19 crisis eases.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45523457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-03Epub Date: 2022-06-02DOI: 10.1126/science.add2701
Jon Cohen
The steady rise of monkeypox cases in Africa has received little attention-until now.
非洲猴痘病例的持续上升很少受到关注--直到现在。
{"title":"Global outbreak puts spotlight on neglected virus.","authors":"Jon Cohen","doi":"10.1126/science.add2701","DOIUrl":"10.1126/science.add2701","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The steady rise of monkeypox cases in Africa has received little attention-until now.</p>","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"156 1","pages":"1032-1033"},"PeriodicalIF":56.9,"publicationDate":"2022-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87051847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-27DOI: 10.1007/s00018-022-04358-3
Xinping Huang, Yongfeng Yang, Dan Zhu, Yan Zhao, Min Wei, Ke Li, Hong-Hu Zhu, Xiaofeng Zheng
Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a hematological malignancy driven by the oncoprotein PML-RARα, which can be treated with arsenic trioxide (As2O3) or/and all-trans retinoic acid. The protein arginine methyltransferase 5 (PRMT5) is involved in tumorigenesis. However, little is known about the biological function and therapeutic potential of PRMT5 in APL. Here, we show that PRMT5 is highly expressed in APL patients. PRMT5 promotes APL by interacting with PML-RARα and suppressing its ubiquitination and degradation. Mechanistically, PRMT5 attenuates the interaction between PML-RARα and its ubiquitin E3 ligase RNF4 by methylating RNF4 at Arg164. Notably, As2O3 treatment triggers the dissociation of PRMT5 from PML nuclear bodies, attenuating RNF4 methylation and promoting RNF4-mediated PML-RARα ubiquitination and degradation. Moreover, knockdown of PRMT5 and pharmacological inhibition of PRMT5 with the specific inhibitor EPZ015666 significantly inhibit APL cells growth. The combination of EPZ015666 with As2O3 shows synergistic effects on As2O3-induced differentiation of bone marrow cells from APL mice, as well as on apoptosis and differentiation of primary APL cells from APL patients. These findings provide mechanistic insight into the function of PRMT5 in APL pathogenesis and demonstrate that inhibition of PRMT5, alone or in combination with As2O3, might be a promising therapeutic strategy against APL.
{"title":"PRMT5-mediated RNF4 methylation promotes therapeutic resistance of APL cells to As<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> by stabilizing oncoprotein PML-RARα.","authors":"Xinping Huang, Yongfeng Yang, Dan Zhu, Yan Zhao, Min Wei, Ke Li, Hong-Hu Zhu, Xiaofeng Zheng","doi":"10.1007/s00018-022-04358-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s00018-022-04358-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a hematological malignancy driven by the oncoprotein PML-RARα, which can be treated with arsenic trioxide (As<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>) or/and all-trans retinoic acid. The protein arginine methyltransferase 5 (PRMT5) is involved in tumorigenesis. However, little is known about the biological function and therapeutic potential of PRMT5 in APL. Here, we show that PRMT5 is highly expressed in APL patients. PRMT5 promotes APL by interacting with PML-RARα and suppressing its ubiquitination and degradation. Mechanistically, PRMT5 attenuates the interaction between PML-RARα and its ubiquitin E3 ligase RNF4 by methylating RNF4 at Arg164. Notably, As<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> treatment triggers the dissociation of PRMT5 from PML nuclear bodies, attenuating RNF4 methylation and promoting RNF4-mediated PML-RARα ubiquitination and degradation. Moreover, knockdown of PRMT5 and pharmacological inhibition of PRMT5 with the specific inhibitor EPZ015666 significantly inhibit APL cells growth. The combination of EPZ015666 with As<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub> shows synergistic effects on As<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>-induced differentiation of bone marrow cells from APL mice, as well as on apoptosis and differentiation of primary APL cells from APL patients. These findings provide mechanistic insight into the function of PRMT5 in APL pathogenesis and demonstrate that inhibition of PRMT5, alone or in combination with As<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>, might be a promising therapeutic strategy against APL.</p>","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"210 1","pages":"319"},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2022-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11072021/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86956670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}