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STATE CAPACITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CAUTIONARY TALES FROM HISTORY 国家能力与经济增长:历史警示
IF 2.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-21 DOI: 10.1017/nie.2022.42
Sheilagh Ogilvie
Abstract This paper uses economic history to probe the relationship between state capacity and economic growth during the Great and Little Divergences (c.1500–c.1850). It identifies flaws in the dominant measure of state capacity, fiscal capacity, and advocates instead analysing state expenditures. It investigates five key activities on which states historically spent resources: waging war; providing law and administration; building infrastructure; pursuing industrial policy; and fostering a national culture. The lesson of history, it concludes, is not to build a capacious state. Rather, we need a state that uses its capacity to help (or at least not hinder) market activity.
摘要本文利用经济史来探讨大分歧和小分歧时期(约1500年至约1850年)国家能力与经济增长之间的关系。它指出了国家能力、财政能力的主要衡量标准中的缺陷,并主张转而分析国家支出。它调查了各国历史上花费资源的五项关键活动:发动战争;提供法律和行政管理;建设基础设施;推行产业政策;以及培养民族文化。它总结道,历史的教训不是建立一个广阔的国家。相反,我们需要一个利用其能力帮助(或至少不阻碍)市场活动的国家。
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引用次数: 2
THE ECONOMY AND POLICY TRADE-OFFS 经济与政策的权衡
IF 2.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1017/nie.2022.41
Silvana Tenreyro
Good evening. It is a pleasure and an honour to be here at NIESR to give the annual Dow lecture. We are very lucky in the UK to have high-quality independent institutions such as NIESR focusing on the policy landscape, and in my time on the MPC I have always valued their commentary and research.
晚上好。很高兴也很荣幸来到NIESR做一年一度的Dow讲座。在英国,我们非常幸运地拥有像NIESR这样专注于政策领域的高质量独立机构,在我任职MPC期间,我一直很重视他们的评论和研究。
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引用次数: 1
CLASSIC POLICY BENCHMARKS AND INEQUALITY 经典政策基准与不平等
IF 2.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-10 DOI: 10.1017/nie.2022.39
James Bullard
Abstract This note provides a nontechnical summary of a research paper (Bullard and DiCecio [2021, Classical policy benchmarks for economies with substantial inequality, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, unpublished manuscript]) that I presented as the NIESR 2021 Dow Lecture on 9 February 2021. In the paper, we construct a simple benchmark macroeconomic model with substantial heterogeneity among households, enough to generate empirically plausible Gini coefficients for the distributions of consumption, income and financial wealth. The model includes aggregate shocks as well as both permanent and temporary idiosyncratic uncertainties. Four policymakers—implementing monetary, fiscal, labour market and education policies—act in concert to achieve a first-best allocation of resources. We argue that the roles of these policymaker types are ‘classic’ and match up well with observed policymaker roles in OECD countries. We regard this simple economy as a benchmark for the study of other aspects of the interaction between policy and inequality.
本文提供了一篇研究论文的非技术摘要(Bullard和DiCecio[2021,严重不平等经济体的经典政策基准,圣路易斯联邦储备银行,未发表的手稿]),我在2021年2月9日的NIESR 2021道讲座上发表了这篇论文。在本文中,我们构建了一个简单的基准宏观经济模型,该模型具有家庭之间的巨大异质性,足以为消费、收入和金融财富的分配产生经验上合理的基尼系数。该模型既包括总体冲击,也包括永久的和暂时的特殊不确定性。四位政策制定者——执行货币、财政、劳动力市场和教育政策——一致行动,实现资源的最佳配置。我们认为,这些决策者类型的角色是“经典的”,并且与经合组织国家中观察到的决策者角色很好地匹配。我们把这个简单的经济作为研究政策与不平等之间相互作用的其他方面的基准。
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引用次数: 0
NIE volume 264 Cover and Back matter NIE卷264封面和背面物质
Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/nie.2023.33
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
此内容的摘要不可用,因此提供了预览。当您可以访问此内容时,可以通过“保存PDF”操作按钮获得完整的PDF。
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引用次数: 0
THE POLITICS OF LEVELLING UP: DEVOLUTION, INSTITUTIONS AND PRODUCTIVITY IN ENGLAND 升级的政治:英国的权力下放、制度和生产力
IF 2.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-11-04 DOI: 10.1017/nie.2022.29
A. Westwood, M. Sensier, Nicola Pike
Abstract After the publication of the Government’s ‘Levelling Up’ White Paper, this paper reviews the role of institutions and governance structures across English regions in tackling spatial inequality and low productivity. It considers the recent history and changing roles of local and regional organisations and the overarching policy frameworks that oversee them as a key element of tackling spatial inequality and low productivity. Specifically, the paper looks at the frequent changes to institutional arrangements supporting economic development and the process of allocating competitive funds to local and regional bodies.
摘要在英国政府发布“提升水平”白皮书后,本文回顾了英国各地区在解决空间不平等和低生产率方面的制度和治理结构的作用。它考虑了地方和区域组织的近期历史和不断变化的角色,以及监督它们的总体政策框架,作为解决空间不平等和低生产率的关键因素。具体而言,该文件着眼于支持经济发展的体制安排的频繁变化以及向地方和区域机构分配竞争性资金的过程。
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引用次数: 1
INFLATION DIFFERENTIALS AMONG EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS 欧洲货币联盟国家间通胀差异:结构性断裂的实证评估
IF 2.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.1017/nie.2022.25
T. Stylianou
Inflation rates and their convergence within Euro area have been a major concern, since well before the advent of the single currency. Inflation differentials are a normal phenomenon in any monetary union and even in long-established monetary unions. The aim of this research is to examine the main factors of inflation differentials in the Euro-zone for the period 1999–2018. Our empirical estimates appear to suggest that a one-percentage-point increase in the positive output gap typically leads to an increase of about 20 basis points in the inflation rate of EMU countries. We also find three structural breaks, in 2004, 2008 and in 2010. Since the monetary policy of the European Central Bank is geared at maintaining low and stable inflation, the productivity growth should be increased, and the real effective exchange rates should be decreased and become more homogeneous among EMU. Therefore, countries’ inflation differentials may become less persistent.
早在单一货币出现之前,通货膨胀率及其在欧元区内的趋同就一直是一个主要问题。通货膨胀差异在任何货币联盟中都是正常现象,甚至在建立已久的货币联盟中也是如此。本研究的目的是考察1999-2008年期间欧元区通胀差异的主要因素。我们的实证估计似乎表明,正产出差距增加一个百分点通常会导致欧洲货币联盟国家的通货膨胀率增加约20个基点。我们还发现了三个结构性断裂,分别发生在2004年、2008年和2010年。由于欧洲央行的货币政策旨在保持低通胀和稳定通胀,因此生产率增长应该提高,实际有效汇率应该降低,并在欧洲货币联盟之间变得更加同质。因此,各国的通胀差异可能会变得不那么持久。
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引用次数: 1
THE ECONOMICS OF WALKING ABOUT AND PREDICTING UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE USA 在美国四处走动和预测失业的经济学
IF 2.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-19 DOI: 10.1017/nie.2022.18
David G. Blanchflower, Alex Bryson

We show consumer expectations indices from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict unemployment upticks in the USA up to 18 months in advance, both at national and at state level. These data predict six of the last six recessions called by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee 6–18 months before the date of recession. The consumer expectations data for 2021 and 2022 are consistent with recession.

我们展示了世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)和密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的消费者预期指数,该指数提前18个月预测了美国全国和州一级的失业率上升。这些数据预测了美国国家经济研究局(NBER)商业周期确定委员会(Business Cycle Dating Committee)在衰退发生前6-18个月预测的过去6次衰退中的6次。2021年和2022年的消费者预期数据与衰退相符。
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引用次数: 0
HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOUR UNDER RATIONING 定量配给下的家庭行为
IF 2.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-08-18 DOI: 10.1017/nie.2022.19
J. Fitzgerald, S. Kenny, Alexandra L. Cermeño
The pandemic-induced economic crisis has seen a massive increase in savings as households could not spend their income. The last time that consumers were seriously rationed was during the Second World War. This article models the behaviour of households during the War years and its immediate aftermath in Ireland, Sweden, the US and UK. Savings were held in liquid form and, once the War was over and rationing eased, a consumption boom transpired. However, significant excess savings were converted into physical assets in the housing market. There is evidence that this pattern is being repeated as the Covid-19 crisis eases.
由于家庭无法支出收入,疫情引发的经济危机导致储蓄大幅增加。上一次消费者被严格配给是在第二次世界大战期间。这篇文章模拟了战争期间爱尔兰、瑞典、美国和英国家庭的行为及其直接后果。储蓄以流动形式存在,一旦战争结束,配给制放松,消费热潮就出现了。然而,大量超额储蓄被转换为房地产市场的实物资产。有证据表明,随着新冠肺炎危机的缓解,这种模式正在重复。
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引用次数: 1
Global outbreak puts spotlight on neglected virus. 全球疫情使被忽视的病毒成为焦点。
IF 56.9 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-06-03 Epub Date: 2022-06-02 DOI: 10.1126/science.add2701
Jon Cohen

The steady rise of monkeypox cases in Africa has received little attention-until now.

非洲猴痘病例的持续上升很少受到关注--直到现在。
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引用次数: 14
PRMT5-mediated RNF4 methylation promotes therapeutic resistance of APL cells to As2O3 by stabilizing oncoprotein PML-RARα. PRMT5 介导的 RNF4 甲基化通过稳定肿瘤蛋白 PML-RARα 促进 APL 细胞对 As2O3 的耐药性。
IF 8 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-27 DOI: 10.1007/s00018-022-04358-3
Xinping Huang, Yongfeng Yang, Dan Zhu, Yan Zhao, Min Wei, Ke Li, Hong-Hu Zhu, Xiaofeng Zheng

Acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is a hematological malignancy driven by the oncoprotein PML-RARα, which can be treated with arsenic trioxide (As2O3) or/and all-trans retinoic acid. The protein arginine methyltransferase 5 (PRMT5) is involved in tumorigenesis. However, little is known about the biological function and therapeutic potential of PRMT5 in APL. Here, we show that PRMT5 is highly expressed in APL patients. PRMT5 promotes APL by interacting with PML-RARα and suppressing its ubiquitination and degradation. Mechanistically, PRMT5 attenuates the interaction between PML-RARα and its ubiquitin E3 ligase RNF4 by methylating RNF4 at Arg164. Notably, As2O3 treatment triggers the dissociation of PRMT5 from PML nuclear bodies, attenuating RNF4 methylation and promoting RNF4-mediated PML-RARα ubiquitination and degradation. Moreover, knockdown of PRMT5 and pharmacological inhibition of PRMT5 with the specific inhibitor EPZ015666 significantly inhibit APL cells growth. The combination of EPZ015666 with As2O3 shows synergistic effects on As2O3-induced differentiation of bone marrow cells from APL mice, as well as on apoptosis and differentiation of primary APL cells from APL patients. These findings provide mechanistic insight into the function of PRMT5 in APL pathogenesis and demonstrate that inhibition of PRMT5, alone or in combination with As2O3, might be a promising therapeutic strategy against APL.

急性早幼粒细胞白血病(APL)是一种由肿瘤蛋白 PML-RARα 驱动的血液恶性肿瘤,可以用三氧化二砷(As2O3)或/和全反式维甲酸治疗。蛋白精氨酸甲基转移酶 5(PRMT5)与肿瘤发生有关。然而,人们对 PRMT5 在 APL 中的生物学功能和治疗潜力知之甚少。在这里,我们发现 PRMT5 在 APL 患者中高表达。PRMT5通过与PML-RARα相互作用并抑制其泛素化和降解来促进APL。从机理上讲,PRMT5通过在Arg164处甲基化RNF4,减弱了PML-RARα与其泛素E3连接酶RNF4之间的相互作用。值得注意的是,As2O3 处理会引发 PRMT5 与 PML 核体分离,从而减弱 RNF4 甲基化,促进 RNF4 介导的 PML-RARα 泛素化和降解。此外,敲除 PRMT5 和使用特异性抑制剂 EPZ015666 对 PRMT5 进行药理抑制能显著抑制 APL 细胞的生长。EPZ015666 与 As2O3 联用对 As2O3 诱导的 APL 小鼠骨髓细胞分化以及 APL 患者原代 APL 细胞的凋亡和分化具有协同作用。这些发现从机理上揭示了 PRMT5 在 APL 发病机制中的功能,并证明单独或与 As2O3 联合抑制 PRMT5 可能是一种很有前景的 APL 治疗策略。
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National Institute Economic Review
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