Abstract We apply insights from the political economy of secession to analyse the early years of the Irish Free State (IFS). The IFS was fortuitous in a debt settlement that enabled it to begin its existence debt free while also receiving financial assistance to quell civil unrest. Yet the IFS was unable to continue to provide the welfare spending inherited from the old regime thereby exacerbating inequality. The IFS also maintained a sterling peg, which led to a milder experience of the depression era. Ultimately, however, the benefits of independence were not forthcoming in the early years of the IFS.
{"title":"POLITICAL ECONOMY OF SECESSION: LESSONS FROM THE EARLY YEARS OF THE IRISH FREE STATE","authors":"S. Kenny, Eoin Mclaughlin","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.27","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We apply insights from the political economy of secession to analyse the early years of the Irish Free State (IFS). The IFS was fortuitous in a debt settlement that enabled it to begin its existence debt free while also receiving financial assistance to quell civil unrest. Yet the IFS was unable to continue to provide the welfare spending inherited from the old regime thereby exacerbating inequality. The IFS also maintained a sterling peg, which led to a milder experience of the depression era. Ultimately, however, the benefits of independence were not forthcoming in the early years of the IFS.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"261 1","pages":"48 - 78"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 261 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.37","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"261 1","pages":"b1 - b2"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Macqueen, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel, Kemar Whyte
1 The authors are grateful to Bart van Ark, Jagjit Chadha and Barry Naisbitt for helpful comments, and to Joanna Nowinska for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 25th April 2022; more recent data is incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Kemar Whyte (enquiries@niesr. ac.uk). Economic background
本文作者感谢Bart van Ark、Jagjit Chadha和Barry Naisbitt提供的有益意见，并感谢Joanna Nowinska为预测准备了图表和数据库。预报于2022年4月25日完成;更近期的数据被纳入正文。除非另有说明，表和图中报告的所有数据来源均为NiGEM数据库和NIESR预测基线。所有与预测及其基本假设相关的问题和评论都应提交给Kemar Whyte (enquiries@niesr)。ac.uk)。经济背景
{"title":"1. UK Economic Outlook","authors":"R. Macqueen, Stephen Millard, Urvish Patel, Kemar Whyte","doi":"10.1017/nie.2023.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2023.4","url":null,"abstract":"1 The authors are grateful to Bart van Ark, Jagjit Chadha and Barry Naisbitt for helpful comments, and to Joanna Nowinska for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 25th April 2022; more recent data is incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Kemar Whyte (enquiries@niesr. ac.uk). Economic background","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57023004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gioele Figus, P. McGregor, Stuart McIntyre, G. Roy
Abstract Trade issues lie at the heart of the two biggest constitutional challenges the UK has faced in decades: Brexit and Scottish independence. Brexit has demonstrated the economic importance of borders and led to renewed calls for Scottish independence. While there are a range of possible trading arrangements an independent Scotland could pursue, all of them involve economically significant change. In this paper, we describe Scottish trade patterns and review the range of options that a newly independent Scotland might have for its trading arrangements. We then model the relative economic importance of these different potential trading arrangements.
{"title":"TRADE-OFFS: UNDERSTANDING FUTURE TRADE OPTIONS FOR SCOTLAND","authors":"Gioele Figus, P. McGregor, Stuart McIntyre, G. Roy","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.7","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Trade issues lie at the heart of the two biggest constitutional challenges the UK has faced in decades: Brexit and Scottish independence. Brexit has demonstrated the economic importance of borders and led to renewed calls for Scottish independence. While there are a range of possible trading arrangements an independent Scotland could pursue, all of them involve economically significant change. In this paper, we describe Scottish trade patterns and review the range of options that a newly independent Scotland might have for its trading arrangements. We then model the relative economic importance of these different potential trading arrangements.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"26 - 39"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Populism is a paradoxical phenomenon that resists easy categorisation because it both rejects and intensifies certain elements of technocracy. Populist politics is at once a backlash against liberal-technocratic ideology and policy and an attempted corrective of some of its worst excesses, such as increasing inequality or pressures on wages. Despite deep differences, both rest on a binary logic that conceals alternatives to the convergence around variants of techno-populism defended by either ‘corporate populists’ or ‘insurgent populists’. One alternative is a public policy programme focused on the building of an economic democracy with more democratic workplaces and a greater emphasis on the dignity of decent jobs, besides policies to reduce regional disparities and foster shared prosperity. But policies alone cannot fully address the deep-seated grievances fuelling the support for populists. Fundamental institutional reform is needed to devolve power and wealth to people and the places where they live and work.
{"title":"BEYOND BINARIES: TECHNOCRACY, POPULISM AND PUBLIC POLICY","authors":"Adrian Pabst","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.10","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Populism is a paradoxical phenomenon that resists easy categorisation because it both rejects and intensifies certain elements of technocracy. Populist politics is at once a backlash against liberal-technocratic ideology and policy and an attempted corrective of some of its worst excesses, such as increasing inequality or pressures on wages. Despite deep differences, both rest on a binary logic that conceals alternatives to the convergence around variants of techno-populism defended by either ‘corporate populists’ or ‘insurgent populists’. One alternative is a public policy programme focused on the building of an economic democracy with more democratic workplaces and a greater emphasis on the dignity of decent jobs, besides policies to reduce regional disparities and foster shared prosperity. But policies alone cannot fully address the deep-seated grievances fuelling the support for populists. Fundamental institutional reform is needed to devolve power and wealth to people and the places where they live and work.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"67 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Democracy is unstable as a political system as long as it remains a political system and nothing more, instead of being, as it should be, not only a form of government but a type of society, and a manner of life which is in harmony with that type. To make it a type of society requires an advance along two lines. It involves, in the first place, the resolute elimination of all forms of special privilege which favour some groups and depress others, whether their source be differences of environment, of education, or of pecuniary income. It involves, in the second place, the conversion of economic power, now often an irresponsible tyrant, into a servant of society, working within clearly defined limits and accountable for its actions to a public authority. R. H. Tawney, Equality, 1931.
{"title":"COMMENTARY: THE GREAT DIVIDES","authors":"J. Chadha","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.12","url":null,"abstract":"Democracy is unstable as a political system as long as it remains a political system and nothing more, instead of being, as it should be, not only a form of government but a type of society, and a manner of life which is in harmony with that type. To make it a type of society requires an advance along two lines. It involves, in the first place, the resolute elimination of all forms of special privilege which favour some groups and depress others, whether their source be differences of environment, of education, or of pecuniary income. It involves, in the second place, the conversion of economic power, now often an irresponsible tyrant, into a servant of society, working within clearly defined limits and accountable for its actions to a public authority. R. H. Tawney, Equality, 1931.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"1 - 6"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Cyrille Lenoël, R. Macqueen, Paul Mortimer-Lee, Urvish Patel, Kemar Whyte
There has been a significant improvement in the UK’s net trade performance with the European Union (EU) since the 2016 Brexit vote. The previous negative trend in the real net trade balance with EU has not only stopped but is improving. The gap between recent numbers and the previous trend in the trade balance with the EU is equivalent to just over 2 per cent of GDP. A plausible reason for these developments is that the Brexit vote led to a sharp sterling depreciation, making the UK significantly more competitive while crimping domestic demand. However, Covid-19 and a dramatic drop in the EU’s overall trade balance are also likely important influences. when searching for due
{"title":"1. UK Economic Outlook: Covid-19 leaves inflation in its wake","authors":"Cyrille Lenoël, R. Macqueen, Paul Mortimer-Lee, Urvish Patel, Kemar Whyte","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.16","url":null,"abstract":"There has been a significant improvement in the UK’s net trade performance with the European Union (EU) since the 2016 Brexit vote. The previous negative trend in the real net trade balance with EU has not only stopped but is improving. The gap between recent numbers and the previous trend in the trade balance with the EU is equivalent to just over 2 per cent of GDP. A plausible reason for these developments is that the Brexit vote led to a sharp sterling depreciation, making the UK significantly more competitive while crimping domestic demand. However, Covid-19 and a dramatic drop in the EU’s overall trade balance are also likely important influences. when searching for due","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The deepening distrust in democracy has grown out of a decade of low growth and cuts to public spending, which in turn has consolidated wage decline while also fuelling a wider sense of economic insecurity. As poverty and inequality intensify, social mobility is in reverse and the social contract is under growing strain. Support for populists has recently receded, but the inability of democratic systems to address deep-seated problems sows the seeds for future populist revolts. Both left- and right-wing governments have responded to increasing anger and alienation with policies that exacerbate existing inequalities of income and wealth, combined with disparities of decision-making power and social status. These are ethical as much as economic questions and they demand a much more robust response than technocratic administration. Otherwise, ethical social democracy and communitarian conservatism will fail to defeat the authoritarianism of both radical-right national populists and the tech-utopianism of far-left populists.
{"title":"THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF LEFT AND RIGHT POPULISM","authors":"Jon Cruddas","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.6","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The deepening distrust in democracy has grown out of a decade of low growth and cuts to public spending, which in turn has consolidated wage decline while also fuelling a wider sense of economic insecurity. As poverty and inequality intensify, social mobility is in reverse and the social contract is under growing strain. Support for populists has recently receded, but the inability of democratic systems to address deep-seated problems sows the seeds for future populist revolts. Both left- and right-wing governments have responded to increasing anger and alienation with policies that exacerbate existing inequalities of income and wealth, combined with disparities of decision-making power and social status. These are ethical as much as economic questions and they demand a much more robust response than technocratic administration. Otherwise, ethical social democracy and communitarian conservatism will fail to defeat the authoritarianism of both radical-right national populists and the tech-utopianism of far-left populists.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"259 1","pages":"10 - 19"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57022263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We are entering the end game for this Parliament and so it is now time to focus on the policy horizon. In the run-up to the next election, the government’s pieces will be moved by our fourth Prime Minister since the announcement of the advisory referendum on EU membership in February 2016. The rapidity in turnover of political leadership tells us starkly that there are deep problems with our economic and social performance, relative to expectations and to that of our main trading partners. The overriding narrative is of a kingdom of nations that have taken a huge step backwards in international standing and in the fulfilment of domestic objectives. At this historic moment with the accession of Charles III, we are not this time faced with post-war reconstruction, industrial decline, the need to deregulate or the need to hitch our colours to the rise of the City. It is more a problem of how to bring the country and devolved nations together and aim for economic and social progress for all. That implies both broadening our regional focus and narrowing our gambit to what institutions and policies the UK needs as a small open economy in order to deal with a global economic situation we must take as given and no longer made in our image. No new IMF or World Bank would, for example, offer the UK a seat at the top table, which was certainly the natural order in the first half of the twentieth century.
{"title":"FIXING THE MIX","authors":"J. Chadha","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.30","url":null,"abstract":"We are entering the end game for this Parliament and so it is now time to focus on the policy horizon. In the run-up to the next election, the government’s pieces will be moved by our fourth Prime Minister since the announcement of the advisory referendum on EU membership in February 2016. The rapidity in turnover of political leadership tells us starkly that there are deep problems with our economic and social performance, relative to expectations and to that of our main trading partners. The overriding narrative is of a kingdom of nations that have taken a huge step backwards in international standing and in the fulfilment of domestic objectives. At this historic moment with the accession of Charles III, we are not this time faced with post-war reconstruction, industrial decline, the need to deregulate or the need to hitch our colours to the rise of the City. It is more a problem of how to bring the country and devolved nations together and aim for economic and social progress for all. That implies both broadening our regional focus and narrowing our gambit to what institutions and policies the UK needs as a small open economy in order to deal with a global economic situation we must take as given and no longer made in our image. No new IMF or World Bank would, for example, offer the UK a seat at the top table, which was certainly the natural order in the first half of the twentieth century.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"1 - 3"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57021233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This special issue of the National Institute Economic Review is being published at an unsettled and uncertain time for the United Kingdom. In June 2022, the First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon called for a second referendum on Scottish independence to be held in October 2023. While it is unlikely that the referendum will be granted by the UK government, current polling suggests the outcome of such a referendum would be too close to call. Eight years after Scotland voted 55%–45% to stay in the Union, independence remains a live issue, which raises fundamental questions about economic and governance arrangements between Westminster and the UK’s constituent parts.
{"title":"INTRODUCTION: DEVOLUTION AND SECESSION IN QUESTION","authors":"C. Jennings, Adrian Pabst","doi":"10.1017/nie.2022.23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2022.23","url":null,"abstract":"This special issue of the National Institute Economic Review is being published at an unsettled and uncertain time for the United Kingdom. In June 2022, the First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon called for a second referendum on Scottish independence to be held in October 2023. While it is unlikely that the referendum will be granted by the UK government, current polling suggests the outcome of such a referendum would be too close to call. Eight years after Scotland voted 55%–45% to stay in the Union, independence remains a live issue, which raises fundamental questions about economic and governance arrangements between Westminster and the UK’s constituent parts.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"260 1","pages":"4 - 6"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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