{"title":"NIE volume 255 Cover and Front matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.4","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"255 1","pages":"f1 - f3"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.4","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49568839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the implications for regional policy of new research on the role played by a failure in the ‘capacity to aspire’ [Appadurai, A. (2004), ‘The capacity to aspire’, in Rao, V. and Walton, M. (eds), Culture and Public Action, Washington, DC: World Bank.] in perpetuating disadvantage traps. After a brief review of the magnitude of the challenge that regional policy needs to confront, it provides a summary of the theoretical and empirical literature on poverty and aspirations failure (and the associated loss of agency, beliefs and self-efficacy). The key implication for the design of an inclusive regional policy is that it needs to address simultaneously the sources of external constraints (such as the availability of resources or adequate infrastructure) and mitigate the aspirations failure inherently linked to persistent disadvantage.
本文考察了“渴望能力”失败所起作用的新研究对区域政策的影响[Appadurai, a .(2004)，“渴望能力”，载于Rao, V.和Walton, M.(编)，《文化与公共行动》，华盛顿特区:世界银行。使劣势陷阱永久化。在简要回顾了区域政策需要面对的挑战的规模之后，它总结了关于贫困和愿望失败(以及与之相关的能动性、信念和自我效能的丧失)的理论和实证文献。设计包容性区域政策的关键含义是，它需要同时解决外部制约因素(如资源可用性或充足的基础设施)的来源，并减轻与持续劣势固有关联的愿望失败。
{"title":"ASPIRATIONS FAILURE, DISADVANTAGE TRAPS AND INCLUSIVE REGIONAL POLICY","authors":"S. Ghosal","doi":"10.1017/nie.2020.51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.51","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the implications for regional policy of new research on the role played by a failure in the ‘capacity to aspire’ [Appadurai, A. (2004), ‘The capacity to aspire’, in Rao, V. and Walton, M. (eds), Culture and Public Action, Washington, DC: World Bank.] in perpetuating disadvantage traps. After a brief review of the magnitude of the challenge that regional policy needs to confront, it provides a summary of the theoretical and empirical literature on poverty and aspirations failure (and the associated loss of agency, beliefs and self-efficacy). The key implication for the design of an inclusive regional policy is that it needs to address simultaneously the sources of external constraints (such as the availability of resources or adequate infrastructure) and mitigate the aspirations failure inherently linked to persistent disadvantage.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"255 1","pages":"56 - 68"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2020.51","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44180057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article assesses whether economic injustices that took place in the past still have significant implications for the material welfare of people many years later. That issue is central to the question of how fair is the distribution of wealth and income today. It is also relevant to issues of reparations for past wrongs. I find that in standard neoclassical models of economic growth the lingering effects of injustice from more than 70 years ago are generally small. But effects can last much longer once we allow for impacts of past injustices to be transmitted through human capital accumulation as well as physical capital.
{"title":"HOW LONG DOES ECONOMIC INJUSTICE LAST?","authors":"D. Miles","doi":"10.1017/nie.2020.50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.50","url":null,"abstract":"This article assesses whether economic injustices that took place in the past still have significant implications for the material welfare of people many years later. That issue is central to the question of how fair is the distribution of wealth and income today. It is also relevant to issues of reparations for past wrongs. I find that in standard neoclassical models of economic growth the lingering effects of injustice from more than 70 years ago are generally small. But effects can last much longer once we allow for impacts of past injustices to be transmitted through human capital accumulation as well as physical capital.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"255 1","pages":"69 - 78"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2020.50","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43197552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 255 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"255 1","pages":"b1 - b2"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.5","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45282942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the past 15 years, productivity growth in advanced economies has significantly slowed, giving rise to the productivity paradox of the New Digital Economy – that is, the notion of increased business spending on information and communication technology assets and digital services without a noticeable increase in productivity. We argue that time lags are the most important reason for the slow emergence of the productivity effects from digital transformation. This paper provides evidence that underneath the slowing productivity growth rates at the macro level, signs of structural improvements can be detected. In the United States most of the positive contribution to productivity growth is coming from the digital producing sector. The Euro Area and the United Kingdom show larger productivity contributions from the most intensive digital-using sectors, although the United Kingdom also had a fairly large number of less intensive digital-using industries which showed productivity declines. We also find that increases in innovation competencies of the workforce are concentrated in industries showing faster growth in labor productivity, even though more research is needed to identify causality. Finally, we speculate that as the recovery from the COVID-19 recession gets underway the potential for significant productivity gains from digital transformation in the medium term is larger than during the past 15 years.
{"title":"HOW TO NOT MISS A PRODUCTIVITY REVIVAL ONCE AGAIN","authors":"Bart van Ark, Klaas de Vries, A. Erumban","doi":"10.1017/nie.2020.49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.49","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past 15 years, productivity growth in advanced economies has significantly slowed, giving rise to the productivity paradox of the New Digital Economy – that is, the notion of increased business spending on information and communication technology assets and digital services without a noticeable increase in productivity. We argue that time lags are the most important reason for the slow emergence of the productivity effects from digital transformation. This paper provides evidence that underneath the slowing productivity growth rates at the macro level, signs of structural improvements can be detected. In the United States most of the positive contribution to productivity growth is coming from the digital producing sector. The Euro Area and the United Kingdom show larger productivity contributions from the most intensive digital-using sectors, although the United Kingdom also had a fairly large number of less intensive digital-using industries which showed productivity declines. We also find that increases in innovation competencies of the workforce are concentrated in industries showing faster growth in labor productivity, even though more research is needed to identify causality. Finally, we speculate that as the recovery from the COVID-19 recession gets underway the potential for significant productivity gains from digital transformation in the medium term is larger than during the past 15 years.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"255 1","pages":"9 - 24"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2020.49","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44190284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Modern economic theory gives an important role to expectations as an influence on outcomes. This paper reviews evidence on how well measures of expectations conform to outcomes. It confirms earlier results that measures taken from financial markets perform poorly as predictors of outcomes. Looking at the individual responses to the Confederation of British Industry’s Industrial Trends Survey, it does find, however, that there are significant correlations between expected and realised outcomes of wages, prices, costs orders and employment. It also finds some evidence that actual prices reflect expected future prices, but with a coefficient much lower than economic theory predicts. There is evidence that forecast errors are explained by past forecasts, as well as revisions to the economic outlook, casting doubt on the idea that firms’ forecasts make the best use of the information available at the time. The paper concludes by observing that, while expectations are undoubtedly important, economists need to build on work looking at how they are derived instead of simply assuming they are rational.
现代经济理论认为预期对结果有重要影响。这篇论文回顾了关于期望的测量如何与结果相符合的证据。它证实了先前的结果，即从金融市场获取的指标在预测结果方面表现不佳。然而，看看对英国工业联合会(Confederation of British Industry)《工业趋势调查》(Industrial Trends Survey)的个人回应，它确实发现，工资、价格、成本、订单和就业的预期结果与实际结果之间存在显著相关性。它还发现了一些证据，表明实际价格反映了预期的未来价格，但其系数远低于经济理论的预测。有证据表明，预测错误可以用过去的预测以及对经济前景的修正来解释，这让人怀疑企业的预测是否充分利用了当时可用的信息。论文最后指出，尽管预期无疑是重要的，但经济学家需要进一步研究预期是如何产生的，而不是简单地假设预期是理性的。
{"title":"DO ECONOMISTS EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM EXPECTATIONS?","authors":"M. Weale","doi":"10.1017/nie.2020.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.47","url":null,"abstract":"Modern economic theory gives an important role to expectations as an influence on outcomes. This paper reviews evidence on how well measures of expectations conform to outcomes. It confirms earlier results that measures taken from financial markets perform poorly as predictors of outcomes. Looking at the individual responses to the Confederation of British Industry’s Industrial Trends Survey, it does find, however, that there are significant correlations between expected and realised outcomes of wages, prices, costs orders and employment. It also finds some evidence that actual prices reflect expected future prices, but with a coefficient much lower than economic theory predicts. There is evidence that forecast errors are explained by past forecasts, as well as revisions to the economic outlook, casting doubt on the idea that firms’ forecasts make the best use of the information available at the time. The paper concludes by observing that, while expectations are undoubtedly important, economists need to build on work looking at how they are derived instead of simply assuming they are rational.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"255 1","pages":"25 - 41"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2020.47","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47819610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Koop, Stuart G McIntyre, James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon
Expenditure-side and income-side gross domestic product (GDP) are measured at the quarterly frequency and contain measurement error. Econometric methods exist for producing reconciled estimates of underlying true GDP from these noisy estimates. Recently, the authors of this paper developed a mixed-frequency reconciliation model which produces monthly estimates of true GDP. In the present paper, we investigate whether this model continues to work well in the face of the extreme observations that occurred during the pandemic year and consider several extensions of it. These include stochastic volatility and error distributions that are fat-tailed or explicitly allow for outliers.
{"title":"NOWCASTING ‘TRUE’ MONTHLY U.S. GDP DURING THE PANDEMIC","authors":"G. Koop, Stuart G McIntyre, James Mitchell, Aubrey Poon","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.8","url":null,"abstract":"Expenditure-side and income-side gross domestic product (GDP) are measured at the quarterly frequency and contain measurement error. Econometric methods exist for producing reconciled estimates of underlying true GDP from these noisy estimates. Recently, the authors of this paper developed a mixed-frequency reconciliation model which produces monthly estimates of true GDP. In the present paper, we investigate whether this model continues to work well in the face of the extreme observations that occurred during the pandemic year and consider several extensions of it. These include stochastic volatility and error distributions that are fat-tailed or explicitly allow for outliers.","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"19 1","pages":"44 - 70"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.8","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
1 We would like to thank Richard Barwell, Rhys Bidder, Jagjit Chadha, Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt, Adrian Pabst and Kemar Whyte for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 26 April 2021, more recent data are incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk). Economic background and overview of the forecast
我们要感谢Richard Barwell, Rhys Bidder, Jagjit Chadha, Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt, Adrian Pabst和Kemar Whyte的有益评论，以及Patricia Sanchez Juanino为预测准备的图表和数据库。该预测于2021年4月26日完成，本文中纳入了最新数据。除非另有说明，表和图中报告的所有数据来源均为NiGEM数据库和NIESR预测基线。与预测及其基本假设有关的所有问题和评论均应向Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk)提出。经济背景及概览预测
{"title":"1 UK economic outlook: Brisk but not better growth","authors":"Hande Küçük, Cyrille Lenoël, R. Macqueen","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.16","url":null,"abstract":"1 We would like to thank Richard Barwell, Rhys Bidder, Jagjit Chadha, Iana Liadze, Barry Naisbitt, Adrian Pabst and Kemar Whyte for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 26 April 2021, more recent data are incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk). Economic background and overview of the forecast","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"256 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.16","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57019741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"NIE volume 256 Cover and Back matter","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.19","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.19","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"29 1","pages":"b1 - b2"},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1017/nie.2021.19","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57019948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
1 We would like to thank Arnab Bhattacharjee, Janine Boshoff, Jagjit Chadha, Huw Dixon, Paul Mortimer-Lee, Barry Naisbitt, Andrew Sentance, Bart van Ark and Garry Young for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 16th July 2021; more recent data are incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk). 2 As recorded by the ‘Average of new forecasts’ in HM Treasury’s monthly ‘Forecasts for the UK economy’ Economic background and overview of the forecast
我们要感谢Arnab Bhattacharjee, Janine Boshoff, Jagjit Chadha, Huw Dixon, Paul Mortimer-Lee, Barry Naisbitt, Andrew Sentance, Bart van Ark和Garry Young的有益评论，以及Patricia Sanchez Juanino为预测准备的图表和数据库。预测于2021年7月16日完成;更近期的数据被纳入正文。除非另有说明，表和图中报告的所有数据来源均为NiGEM数据库和NIESR预测基线。与预测及其基本假设有关的所有问题和评论均应向Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk)提出。根据财政部月度“英国经济预测”中的“新预测平均值”记录的经济背景和预测概述
{"title":"1 UK economic outlook: Emerging from the shadow of Covid-19","authors":"Hande Küçük, Cyrille Lenoël, R. Macqueen","doi":"10.1017/nie.2021.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2021.32","url":null,"abstract":"1 We would like to thank Arnab Bhattacharjee, Janine Boshoff, Jagjit Chadha, Huw Dixon, Paul Mortimer-Lee, Barry Naisbitt, Andrew Sentance, Bart van Ark and Garry Young for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 16th July 2021; more recent data are incorporated in the text. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Cyrille Lenoël (c.lenoel@niesr.ac.uk). 2 As recorded by the ‘Average of new forecasts’ in HM Treasury’s monthly ‘Forecasts for the UK economy’ Economic background and overview of the forecast","PeriodicalId":45594,"journal":{"name":"National Institute Economic Review","volume":"257 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57020361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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