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The impact of bitcoin on gold, the volatility index (VIX), and dollar index (USDX): analysis based on VAR, SVAR, and wavelet coherence 比特币对黄金、波动率指数(VIX)和美元指数(USDX)的影响:基于VAR、SVAR和小波相干性的分析
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-19 DOI: 10.1108/sef-04-2023-0187
Florin Aliu, Alban Asllani, Simona Hašková
PurposeSince 2008, bitcoin has continued to attract investors due to its growing capitalization and opportunity for speculation. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of bitcoin (BTC) on gold, the volatility index (VIX) and the dollar index (USDX).Design/methodology/approachThe series used are weekly and cover the period from January 2016 to November 2022. To generate the results, the unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR), structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and wavelet coherence were performed.FindingsThe findings are mixed as not all tests show the exact effects of BTC in the three asset classes. However, common to all the tests is the significant influence that BTC maintains on gold and vice versa. The positive shock in BTC significantly increases the gold prices, confirmed in three different tests. The effects on the VIX and USDX are still being determined, where in some tests, it appears to be influential while in others not.Originality/valueBTC’s diversification potential with equity stocks and USDX makes it a valuable security for portfolio managers. Furthermore, regulatory authorities should consider that BTC is not an isolated phenomenon and can significantly influence other asset classes such as gold.
目的自2008年以来,比特币因其不断增长的资本和投机机会而继续吸引投资者。本文的目的是分析比特币(BTC)对黄金、波动率指数(VIX)和美元指数(USDX)的影响。设计/方法/方法使用的系列为每周一次,涵盖2016年1月至2022年11月。为了产生结果,进行了无限制向量自回归(VAR)、结构向量自回归和小波相干性。调查结果喜忧参半,因为并非所有测试都显示了BTC在三种资产类别中的确切影响。然而,所有测试的共同点是BTC对黄金的显著影响,反之亦然。BTC的积极冲击显著提高了金价,这在三个不同的测试中得到了证实。波动率指数和美元兑美元汇率的影响仍在确定中,在一些测试中,它似乎有影响,而在另一些测试中则没有。独创性/价值BTC在股票和USDX方面的多元化潜力使其成为投资组合经理的宝贵保障。此外,监管机构应考虑到BTC不是一个孤立的现象,可以对黄金等其他资产类别产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate shareholder value creation as contributor to economic growth 企业股东价值创造对经济增长的贡献
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.1108/sef-06-2021-0255
J. Hall
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to determine if there is a link between corporate shareholder value creation and economic growth. The first objective of this paper is to determine which specific shareholder value measurement best explains shareholder value creation for a particular industry. The next objective of the study is to establish, for each of nine different categories of firms examined, a set of value drivers that are unique and significant in expressing shareholder value for that particular category of firms. Lastly, the relationship between shareholder value creation and economic growth is tested.Design/methodology/approachTo quantify and measure value creation, the paper investigates the various value creation measurements that are being applied. The next step is to ascertain whether various industries have different value creation measures that best explain value creation for the respective industries. Then, the value drivers of these specific value creation measures can be determined and their relationship with economic growth tested.FindingsThe results of this study indicate that each industry does have a specific shareholder value creation measurement that best explains shareholder value creation for that industry; for example, for five of the nine categories (industries) that were analyzed, market value added was found to be the best shareholder value creation measurement, but for capital-intensive firms and manufacturing firms, the Qratio is the best measure, while for the food and beverage industry, the market to book ratio was found to be a better measure of shareholder value creation than other measures tested. It was further found that an increase in corporate shareholder value creation is to the detriment of economic growth.Originality/valueThe contribution of the present study is its determination of a unique shareholder value creation measurement for particular industries. In addition, a specific set of variables per industry that create shareholder value is identified. Lastly, the important link between shareholder value creation and economic growth is exposed.
目的本文的目的是确定企业股东价值创造与经济增长之间是否存在联系。本文的第一个目的是确定哪种特定的股东价值衡量方法最能解释特定行业的股东价值创造。该研究的下一个目标是,为所研究的九类不同公司中的每一类,建立一组独特且重要的价值驱动因素,以表达该类公司的股东价值。最后,检验了股东价值创造与经济增长之间的关系。设计/方法论/方法为了量化和衡量价值创造,本文研究了正在应用的各种价值创造测量方法。下一步是确定各个行业是否有不同的价值创造措施,最能解释各个行业的价值创造。然后,可以确定这些具体价值创造措施的价值驱动因素,并测试它们与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明,每个行业都有一个特定的股东价值创造衡量标准,最能解释该行业股东价值创造的原因;例如,对于所分析的九个类别(行业)中的五个,市场增加值被发现是股东价值创造的最佳衡量标准,但对于资本密集型企业和制造业企业,Qratio是最佳衡量标准;而对于食品和饮料行业,与其他测试指标相比,市净率是衡量股东价值创造的更好指标。研究进一步发现,公司股东价值创造的增加不利于经济增长。独创性/价值本研究的贡献在于确定了特定行业的独特股东价值创造衡量标准。此外,还确定了每个行业创造股东价值的一组特定变量。最后,揭示了股东价值创造与经济增长之间的重要联系。
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引用次数: 2
Exploring the relationship between digital trails of social signals and bitcoin returns 探索社交信号的数字轨迹与比特币回报之间的关系
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-09 DOI: 10.1108/sef-12-2022-0572
Tezer Yelkenci, Birce Dobrucalı Yelkenci, G. Vardar, Berna Aydoğan
PurposeThis study aims to empirically investigate the linkages between digital trails of social signals (content and profile features of bitcoin-related tweets) and bitcoin price return using a VAR-BEKK-GARCH model.Design/methodology/approachBitcoin-related tweets were collected every hour for six months from September 1, 2020, to February 29, 2021. The analysis involved two steps: first, examining tweet content, profiles, sentiment and emotions; and second, investigating the relationship between social signal volatility and hourly bitcoin price return.FindingsResults indicate that bitcoin price changes can impact the sentiment expressed in tweets about bitcoin, and vice versa. While sadness exhibits a bidirectional volatility spillover with bitcoin, fear and anger display a one-period lag. Quartile analyses reveal that only fear in the second quartile shows a bidirectional spillover effect with bitcoin, while all other emotions except sadness demonstrate a unidirectional spillover effect in all remaining quartiles.Originality/valueThe study uses a novel two-step approach to analyze volatility spillovers between social signals and bitcoin price returns. Findings can guide investors and portfolio managers in making better allocation decisions and assist policymakers and regulators in reducing the adverse effects of bitcoin’s volatility on financial system stability.
目的本研究旨在使用VAR-BEK-GARCH模型实证研究社交信号的数字轨迹(比特币相关推文的内容和个人资料特征)与比特币价格回报之间的联系。从2020年9月1日到2021年2月29日,六个月内,每小时收集一次与比特币相关的推文。分析包括两个步骤:首先,检查推特内容、个人资料、情绪和情绪;其次,研究了社会信号波动率与比特币每小时价格回报率之间的关系。FindingsResults表明,比特币价格的变化会影响推特上对比特币的情绪,反之亦然。虽然悲伤表现出比特币的双向波动溢出,但恐惧和愤怒表现出一个时期的滞后。四分位数分析显示,只有第二四分位数的恐惧与比特币表现出双向溢出效应,而除悲伤外的所有其他情绪在其余四分位数都表现出单向溢出效应。独创性/价值该研究使用了一种新颖的两步方法来分析社会信号和比特币价格回报之间的波动溢出。研究结果可以指导投资者和投资组合经理做出更好的配置决策,并帮助决策者和监管机构减少比特币波动对金融系统稳定的不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of water consumption in Thailand: sustainable development of water resources 泰国用水量的决定因素:水资源的可持续发展
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1108/sef-06-2022-0310
Sasipha Tangworachai, Wing-Keung Wong, Fang‐Yi Lo
PurposeFreshwater availability is reducing globally, due to increasing demand with population growth and climate change and is disproportionately impacting developing countries. This study aims to investigate the dynamics of water access and consumption across all regions of Thailand with various characteristics and water systems. Understanding the relationship between institutional, economic and climate variables in Thailand’s water management is important for water scarcity planning. Our paper fills a gap in the literature by examining the determinants of water consumption and exploring potential water management policies.Design/methodology/approachThe authors empirically analyze the determinants of water consumption in Thailand, including institutional, economic and climate variables. The authors use data sets from both metropolitan and provincial waterworks authorities (PWA), as well as economic and meteorological macro-level data. The authors also adopt an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and a Johansen cointegration test to estimate short- and long-run effects of the variables on water consumption.FindingsThe authors confirm a negative relationship between water pricing and consumption and verify a positive relationship between economic growth and water consumption across most regions of Thailand. Furthermore, the authors reveal a clear relationship between climate factors and water consumption and an inverse relationship between income and water consumption in metropolitan area. Findings indicate that authorities, especially PWA, should examine high water use in agriculture and develop regulations to ensure equitable water distribution to sustain economic growth. The authors recommend that water prices are increased within specific income thresholds to prevent impacting low-income families and to secure higher public revenue. In pursuit of environmental sustainability, the authors also recommend increasing public awareness of freshwater scarcity through education programs and investment in water-saving technologies. Differences among regions should be considered when developing water management strategies, which could be monitored through the respective water boards.Originality/valueThis study provides deep insight into the key factors that drive both water prices and water consumption in poor and rich areas. The unique nature of the research indicated that the paper will be of interest to policymakers and the academic community. The findings are relevant for water consumption management in Thailand and other developing countries with similar characteristics.
目的随着人口增长和气候变化,需求不断增加,全球淡水供应量正在减少,对发展中国家的影响尤为严重。本研究旨在调查泰国所有具有不同特征和水系的地区的水资源获取和消耗动态。了解泰国水资源管理中的制度、经济和气候变量之间的关系对于制定缺水规划至关重要。我们的论文通过研究水消耗的决定因素和探索潜在的水管理政策来填补文献中的空白。设计/方法论/方法作者实证分析了泰国用水量的决定因素,包括制度、经济和气候变量。作者使用了来自大都市和省级水务局(PWA)的数据集,以及经济和气象宏观层面的数据。作者还采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型和Johansen协整检验来估计变量对用水量的短期和长期影响。研究结果作者证实了水价与消费之间的负相关关系,并验证了泰国大部分地区的经济增长与水消费之间的正相关关系。此外,作者还揭示了气候因素与城市用水量之间的明显关系,以及收入与城市用水之间的反比关系。调查结果表明,当局,特别是PWA,应该审查农业中的高用水量,并制定法规,以确保公平的水分配,以维持经济增长。作者建议在特定的收入阈值内提高水价,以防止影响低收入家庭,并确保更高的公共收入。为了追求环境可持续性,作者还建议通过教育计划和节水技术投资来提高公众对淡水短缺的认识。在制定水管理战略时,应考虑到各区域之间的差异,可以通过各自的水务委员会对其进行监测。独创性/价值这项研究深入了解了推动贫困和富裕地区水价和用水量的关键因素。这项研究的独特性质表明,该论文将引起决策者和学术界的兴趣。研究结果与泰国和其他具有类似特点的发展中国家的用水量管理有关。
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引用次数: 2
Enhancing bank stability from diversification and digitalization perspective in ASEAN 从多元化和数字化的角度加强东盟银行稳定性
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-05 DOI: 10.1108/sef-12-2022-0554
Diyan Lestari, Shiguang Ma, A. Jun
PurposeThe financial sector's resilience is associated with greater prosperity and a better average income. Banks have evolved their business model and diversified their sources of income, and bank digitalization has become one of the prominent strategies. The purpose of this study is to examine how bank service expansion represented by revenue diversification activities and digital strategy will enhance bank stability in ASEAN countries from 2010 to 2021.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses information from the Datastream database and banks’ annual reports to measure bank stability, diversification and market power, which also provide information for bank digital strategy. This study uses the two-step system generalized method of moments to investigate the effect of diversification and digitalization on bank stability in ASEAN.FindingsThe results of this study show that bank revenue diversification has no effect on bank stability, and the presence of the chief digital officer and digital disclosure improves banks’ stability. However, alliance strategy with financial technology companies does not significantly impact bank stability and might increase bank risk.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study provide relevant policy implications: the regulation should support bank business to diversify the source of income; regulators and policymakers should regulate and enhance the Information and Communication Technology infrastructure; and banks should design their strategy comprehensively.Originality/valueThis study provides new evidence of the essential role of digital strategy in enhancing bank stability in ASEAN. In addition, this study also shows how banks diversify their business in a competitive environment.
目的金融部门的韧性与更大的繁荣和更好的平均收入有关。银行发展了商业模式,收入来源多样化,银行数字化已成为突出的战略之一。本研究的目的是考察以收入多元化活动和数字战略为代表的银行服务扩张将如何在2010-2021年增强东盟国家的银行稳定性。设计/方法/方法本研究使用数据流数据库和银行年报中的信息来衡量银行的稳定性、多元化和市场力量,为银行数字化战略提供信息。本研究采用两步系统广义矩方法研究了多元化和数字化对东盟银行稳定性的影响。结果表明,银行收入多元化对银行稳定性没有影响,首席数字官和数字披露的存在提高了银行的稳定性。然而,与金融科技公司的联盟战略不会对银行稳定性产生重大影响,可能会增加银行风险。实际含义本研究的结果提供了相关的政策含义:监管应支持银行业务实现收入来源多元化;监管机构和决策者应监管和加强信息和通信技术基础设施;银行应全面设计其战略。原创性/价值本研究为数字战略在增强东盟银行稳定方面的重要作用提供了新的证据。此外,本研究还展示了银行如何在竞争环境中实现业务多元化。
{"title":"Enhancing bank stability from diversification and digitalization perspective in ASEAN","authors":"Diyan Lestari, Shiguang Ma, A. Jun","doi":"10.1108/sef-12-2022-0554","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/sef-12-2022-0554","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Purpose\u0000The financial sector's resilience is associated with greater prosperity and a better average income. Banks have evolved their business model and diversified their sources of income, and bank digitalization has become one of the prominent strategies. The purpose of this study is to examine how bank service expansion represented by revenue diversification activities and digital strategy will enhance bank stability in ASEAN countries from 2010 to 2021.\u0000\u0000\u0000Design/methodology/approach\u0000This study uses information from the Datastream database and banks’ annual reports to measure bank stability, diversification and market power, which also provide information for bank digital strategy. This study uses the two-step system generalized method of moments to investigate the effect of diversification and digitalization on bank stability in ASEAN.\u0000\u0000\u0000Findings\u0000The results of this study show that bank revenue diversification has no effect on bank stability, and the presence of the chief digital officer and digital disclosure improves banks’ stability. However, alliance strategy with financial technology companies does not significantly impact bank stability and might increase bank risk.\u0000\u0000\u0000Practical implications\u0000The findings of this study provide relevant policy implications: the regulation should support bank business to diversify the source of income; regulators and policymakers should regulate and enhance the Information and Communication Technology infrastructure; and banks should design their strategy comprehensively.\u0000\u0000\u0000Originality/value\u0000This study provides new evidence of the essential role of digital strategy in enhancing bank stability in ASEAN. In addition, this study also shows how banks diversify their business in a competitive environment.\u0000","PeriodicalId":45607,"journal":{"name":"Studies in Economics and Finance","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9,"publicationDate":"2023-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43043747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Feedback trading in the cryptocurrency market 加密货币市场的反馈交易
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI: 10.1108/sef-02-2023-0096
Mohamed Shaker Ahmed, Adel Alsamman, Kaouther Chebbi
PurposeThis paper aims to investigate feedback trading and autocorrelation behavior in the cryptocurrency market.Design/methodology/approachIt uses the GJR-GARCH model to investigate feedback trading in the cryptocurrency market.FindingsThe findings show a negative relationship between trading volume and autocorrelation in the cryptocurrency market. The GJR-GARCH model shows that only the USD Coin and Binance USD show an asymmetric effect or leverage effect. Interestingly, other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Binance Coin, Ripple, Solana, Cardano and Bitcoin Cash show the opposite behavior of the leverage effect. The findings of the GJR-GARCH model also show positive feedback trading for USD Coin, Binance USD, Ripple, Solana and Bitcoin Cash and negative feedback trading for Ethereum and Cardano only.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature by extending Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) to explore the presence of feedback trading in the cryptocurrency market using a sample of the most active cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, namely, Ethereum, USD coin, Binance Coin, Binance USD, Ripple, Cardano, Solana and Bitcoin Cash.
本文旨在研究加密货币市场中的反馈交易和自相关行为。设计/方法/方法它使用GJR-GARCH模型来调查加密货币市场的反馈交易。研究结果显示,加密货币市场的交易量与自相关性之间存在负相关关系。GJR-GARCH模型显示,只有USD Coin和Binance USD表现出不对称效应或杠杆效应。有趣的是,以太坊、币安、瑞波、索拉纳、卡尔达诺和比特币现金等其他加密货币表现出与杠杆效应相反的行为。GJR-GARCH模型的研究结果还显示,美元币、币安美元、瑞波币、索拉纳和比特币现金的正反馈交易,以及以太坊和卡尔达诺的负反馈交易。原创性/价值本文通过扩展Sentana和Wadhwani(1992)来探索加密货币市场中反馈交易的存在,使用比特币以外最活跃的加密货币样本,即以太坊,美元硬币,币安硬币,币安美元,Ripple, Cardano, Solana和比特币现金。
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引用次数: 0
Female directors, the institutional environment and dividend policy: evidence from ASEAN-5 commercial banks 女性董事、制度环境与股利政策——来自东盟五大商业银行的证据
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-05-08 DOI: 10.1108/sef-12-2022-0568
Athiyyah Riri Syahfitri, T. Risfandy
PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the impact of female directors on the dividend policies of 96 ASEAN-5 listed commercial banks between 2015 and 2020.Design/methodology/approachThis paper developed an econometric model to assess the impact of female directors on the banks’ dividend policies. This paper regressed the payout variable on the female director, legal (institutional environment) variables and several control variables. This paper also considered the interaction between the female and legal variables to assess the moderating impact of the institutional environment.FindingsThis paper found that female directors positively affected dividend policy and that banks with female directors tended to pay dividends to balance stakeholders’ interests, especially for the minority. This paper also found that the influence of female directors was weaker in countries with strong institutional environments because greater legal protection for shareholders reinforced or replaced corporate governance mechanisms.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to investigate gender diversity and its impact on dividend policy using data from ASEAN-5 countries.
目的研究2015-2020年间96家东盟五大上市商业银行的女性董事对股息政策的影响。本文对女性董事的薪酬变量、法律(制度环境)变量和几个控制变量进行了回归分析。本文还考虑了女性和法律变量之间的相互作用,以评估制度环境的调节影响。研究发现,女性董事对股利政策有积极影响,女性董事的银行倾向于支付股利以平衡利益相关者的利益,尤其是少数股东的利益。本文还发现,在制度环境强大的国家,女性董事的影响力较弱,因为对股东的法律保护加强或取代了公司治理机制。原创性/价值据作者所知,这是第一项利用东盟五国的数据调查性别多样性及其对股息政策影响的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Does the day-of-the-week effect exist in other asset classes? Investigation of the globally listed private equity markets 其他资产类别是否存在星期几效应?全球上市私募股权市场调查
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-04-26 DOI: 10.1108/sef-12-2021-0517
Marcel Steinborn
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the day-of-the-week (DoW) effect in globally listed private equity (LPE) markets using daily data covering the period 2004–2021.Design/methodology/approachTo investigate the existence of the DoW effect in globally LPE markets, ordinary least squares regression, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) regression and robust regressions are used. In addition, robustness audits are conducted by subdividing the sampling period into two sub-periods: pre-financial and post-financial crisis.FindingsLimited statistically significant evidence is found for the DoW effect. By taking time-varying volatility into account, a statistically significant DoW effect can be observed, indicating that the DoW effect is driven by time-varying volatility. Economic significance is captured through visual inspection of average daily returns, which illustrate that Monday returns are lower than the other weekdays.Practical implicationsThe results have important implications on whether to adopt a DoW strategy for investors in LPE. The findings show that higher returns on selected days of the week for certain indices are possible.Originality/valueTo the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper provides the first study to examine the DoW effect for globally LPE markets by using LPX indices and contributes valuable insights on this growing asset class.
目的本研究旨在利用2004-2021年期间的每日数据调查全球上市私募股权(LPE)市场的周日(DoW)效应。设计/方法/方法为了调查全球LPE市场中DoW效应的存在,使用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)回归和稳健回归。此外,稳健性审计是通过将抽样期细分为两个子期进行的:金融危机前和金融危机后。发现DoW效应的统计显著证据有限。通过考虑时变波动性,可以观察到统计上显著的DoW效应,表明DoW效应是由时变波动率驱动的。经济意义是通过对平均日回报率的直观检查来捕捉的,这表明周一的回报率低于其他工作日。实际意义研究结果对LPE投资者是否采用DoW策略具有重要意义。研究结果表明,某些指数在一周中的特定日子有可能获得更高的回报。原创性/价值据作者所知,本文首次通过使用LPX指数来检验全球LPE市场的DoW效应,并对这一不断增长的资产类别提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Financial risk tolerance of individuals from the lens of big five personality traits – a multigenerational perspective 从五大人格特征的视角看个人的金融风险承受能力——多代视角
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-04-17 DOI: 10.1108/sef-01-2023-0013
Crystal Glenda Rodrigues, Gopalakrishna B.v
PurposeThis study aims to analyse the impact of the big five personality traits on the financial risk tolerance of individuals. Furthermore, it also examines the differences in personality traits and financial risk tolerance across four generations: baby boomers, Generation X, millennials and Generation Z.Design/methodology/approachThe data constituted 869 responses from Indian individuals, collected using a self-administered structured questionnaire using a convenience sampling technique.FindingsStructural equation modelling analysis showed that openness to experience, extraversion and neuroticism had a significant impact on financial risk tolerance. Multivariate analysis revealed the role of specific personality traits in predicting the financial risk tolerance of generational cohorts. Mean difference showed that millennials and Generation Z had the greatest risk tolerance, whereas the tolerance levels were lower for Generation X and baby boomers.Research limitations/implicationsThis research provides insights into the role of personality on financial risk-taking among generational cohorts in India. Thus, these results cannot be generalised for other risk-taking domains or outside the Indian context.Originality/valueThis study’s results align with the pulse rate hypothesis of generational theory and contribute to the growing field of behavioural economics and finance. It provides a perspective of the emerging economy of India, where behavioural finance studies are still at a nascent stage.
目的本研究旨在分析五大人格特质对个体金融风险承受能力的影响。此外,该研究还研究了婴儿潮一代、X一代、千禧一代和z一代这四代人在性格特征和金融风险承受能力方面的差异。设计/方法/方法数据包括869份来自印度个人的回复,这些回复是通过一份采用方便抽样技术的自我管理结构化问卷收集的。结构方程模型分析表明,经验开放性、外向性和神经质对金融风险承受能力有显著影响。多变量分析揭示了特定人格特质在预测代际群体金融风险承受能力方面的作用。平均差值显示,千禧一代和Z一代的风险容忍度最高,而X一代和婴儿潮一代的风险容忍度较低。研究的局限性/意义本研究提供了对印度各代人在金融风险承担方面的个性作用的见解。因此,这些结果不能推广到其他风险承担领域或印度以外的情况。原创性/价值本研究的结果与代际理论的脉搏率假设相一致,并有助于行为经济学和金融学领域的发展。它提供了对印度新兴经济体的一个视角,在印度,行为金融学研究仍处于起步阶段。
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引用次数: 0
Can COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases predict the uncertainty indexes? A multiscale analysis COVID-19死亡病例和确诊病例能否预测不确定性指标?多尺度分析
IF 1.9 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1108/sef-11-2021-0488
Walid Mensi, V. Vo, S. Kang
PurposeThis study aims to examine the multiscale predictability power of COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases on the S&P 500 index (USA), CAC30 index (France), BSE index (India), two strategic commodity futures (West Texas intermediate [WTI] crude oil and Gold) and five main uncertainty indices Equity Market Volatility Ticker (EMV), CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), US Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) and CBOE ETF Gold Volatility Index (GVZ). Furthermore, the authors analyze the impact of uncertainty indices and COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases on the price returns of stocks (S&P500, CAC300 and BSE), crude oil and gold.Design/methodology/approachThe authors used the wavelet coherency method and quantile regression approach to achieve the objectives.FindingsThe results show strong multiscale comovements between the variables under investigation. Lead-lag relationships vary across frequencies. Finally, COVID-19 news is a powerful predictor of the uncertainty indices at intermediate (4–16 days) and low (32–64 days) frequencies for EPU and at low frequency for EMV, VIX, OVX and GVZ indices from January to April 2020. The S&P500, CAC30 and BSE indexes and gold prices comove with COVID-19 news at low frequencies during the sample period. By contrast, COVID-19 news and WTI oil moderately correlated at low frequencies. Finally, the returns on equity and commodity assets are influenced by uncertainty indices and are sensitive to market conditions.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by exploring the time and frequency dependence between COVID-19 news (confirmed and death cases) on the returns of financial and commodity markets and uncertainty indexes. The findings can assist market participants and policymakers in considering the predictability of future prices and uncertainty over time and across frequencies when setting up regulations that aim to enhance market efficiency.
目的研究新冠肺炎死亡病例和确诊病例对标普500指数(美国)、CAC30指数(法国)、BSE指数(印度)、两种战略商品期货(西德克萨斯中质原油和黄金)以及股票市场波动指数(EMV)、芝加哥期权交易所波动指数(VIX)、美国经济政策不确定性(EPU)、芝加哥期权交易所原油波动指数(OVX)和芝加哥期权交易所ETF黄金波动指数(GVZ)的多尺度可预测性。此外,作者还分析了不确定性指数和COVID-19死亡和确诊病例对股票(标准普尔500指数,CAC300指数和BSE),原油和黄金的价格回报的影响。设计/方法/方法作者使用小波相干法和分位数回归法来实现目标。研究结果表明,所研究的变量之间存在强烈的多尺度运动。超前-滞后关系因频率而异。最后,2019冠状病毒病新闻对2020年1月至4月期间EPU的中间频率(4-16天)和低频率(32-64天)以及EMV、VIX、OVX和GVZ指数的低频率不确定性指数具有强大的预测作用。在样本期间,标准普尔500指数、CAC30指数和BSE指数以及黄金价格与COVID-19新闻的波动频率较低。相比之下,COVID-19新闻与WTI原油在低频率下适度相关。最后,股票和商品资产的回报率受不确定性指数的影响,对市场状况很敏感。独创性/价值本研究通过探索COVID-19新闻(确诊病例和死亡病例)与金融和商品市场收益以及不确定性指标之间的时间和频率依赖关系,为文献做出贡献。研究结果可以帮助市场参与者和政策制定者在制定旨在提高市场效率的法规时,考虑未来价格的可预测性和时间和频率上的不确定性。
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引用次数: 2
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Studies in Economics and Finance
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