This paper examines the effect of financial development (FD), tariffs, and RTA on bilateral exports in a structural gravity framework. Applying high-dimensional fixed effects in OLS and PPML estimation technique in a panel framework covering 169 countries over 2001-2017, this paper finds that FD of both exporters and importers are an important determinant for boosting exports. The EIA has the most trade creation effect than any other form of RTA. Importers' FD has a larger effect on bilateral exports for developed to developed and developed and developing country trade than that of the exporters. The trade between developing to developing countries is positively affected by both exporters' and importers' FD; and negatively to a larger extent by tariff measures. However, in the case of developing and developed country estimation, FD of the exporter country is significantly affecting bilateral trade. Tariffs significantly distort trade, largely between developing and developed countries.
{"title":"The Effect of Financial Development, Tariff, and RTA on Exports: A Structural Gravity Analysis","authors":"Syed Nazrul Islam, Md. Shariful Islam, Md. Rayhanul Islam, Md. Ashraful Alam","doi":"10.11130/jei.2024007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2024007","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effect of financial development (FD), tariffs, and RTA on bilateral exports in a structural gravity framework. Applying high-dimensional fixed effects in OLS and PPML estimation technique in a panel framework covering 169 countries over 2001-2017, this paper finds that FD of both exporters and importers are an important determinant for boosting exports. The EIA has the most trade creation effect than any other form of RTA. Importers' FD has a larger effect on bilateral exports for developed to developed and developed and developing country trade than that of the exporters. The trade between developing to developing countries is positively affected by both exporters' and importers' FD; and negatively to a larger extent by tariff measures. However, in the case of developing and developed country estimation, FD of the exporter country is significantly affecting bilateral trade. Tariffs significantly distort trade, largely between developing and developed countries.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"12 31","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140240951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the impact of accession to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the 11 New Member States (NMS), during the period 2005-2018. Using panel regression analysis and the gravity model, the influence of macroeconomic indicators on FDI outflows from 21 industrialised countries (including EU and non-European counties, such as Japan and USA) to the NMS is assessed. The empirical results suggest that favourable macroeconomic indicators in the NMS, such as a stable exchange rate, lower inflation, long-term interest rates and EU/EMU membership, are positively correlated with FDI inflows from NMS. Conversely, rising inflation and exchange rate volatility in the NMS are negatively associated with FDI inflows, while inflation in the FDI origin countries is positively correlated with investment in the NMS. The results suggest that joining the EMU has a statistically significant and positive relationship on FDI inflows to the NMS.
{"title":"Monetary Integration Effects on Foreign Direct Investments in New EU Member States","authors":"Ismar Velić, Igor Cvečić","doi":"10.11130/jei.2024008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2024008","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the impact of accession to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the 11 New Member States (NMS), during the period 2005-2018. Using panel regression analysis and the gravity model, the influence of macroeconomic indicators on FDI outflows from 21 industrialised countries (including EU and non-European counties, such as Japan and USA) to the NMS is assessed. The empirical results suggest that favourable macroeconomic indicators in the NMS, such as a stable exchange rate, lower inflation, long-term interest rates and EU/EMU membership, are positively correlated with FDI inflows from NMS. Conversely, rising inflation and exchange rate volatility in the NMS are negatively associated with FDI inflows, while inflation in the FDI origin countries is positively correlated with investment in the NMS. The results suggest that joining the EMU has a statistically significant and positive relationship on FDI inflows to the NMS.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"50 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140237525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We estimate the household consumption function using the Korean labor and income panel data (2001-2012) with the instrument of the housing supply to figure out the homeowner balance sheet channel of monetary policy in South Korea during the 2000s and the early 2010s. We find that monetary policy has a significant effect through both the wealth and collateral effects comprising the homeowner balance sheet transmission channel. Furthermore, the wealth effect shows a significant result across all income quantile groups, whereas the collateral effect is significant in the low- and middle-income quantile groups. This finding implies that the lower-income groups are more sensitive to changes in the value of real estate assets. Based on the analysis, we derive policy implication that socio-economic integration will be enhanced under the considerately targetted monetary policy, which is a lesson for the emerging or developing countries whose current economic situation is similar to the past South Korea.
{"title":"Monetary Policy, Homeowner Balance Sheet Channel, and Integration: A Lesson from South Korea during the 2000s","authors":"Yejin Kim, Wonmun Shin","doi":"10.11130/jei.2024011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2024011","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the household consumption function using the Korean labor and income panel data (2001-2012) with the instrument of the housing supply to figure out the homeowner balance sheet channel of monetary policy in South Korea during the 2000s and the early 2010s. We find that monetary policy has a significant effect through both the wealth and collateral effects comprising the homeowner balance sheet transmission channel. Furthermore, the wealth effect shows a significant result across all income quantile groups, whereas the collateral effect is significant in the low- and middle-income quantile groups. This finding implies that the lower-income groups are more sensitive to changes in the value of real estate assets. Based on the analysis, we derive policy implication that socio-economic integration will be enhanced under the considerately targetted monetary policy, which is a lesson for the emerging or developing countries whose current economic situation is similar to the past South Korea.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"97 S12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140237791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose to examine how climate damage may transform Vietnam's long-run growth rate. Because of cross-country linkages forged by bilateral trade, there are two channels through which international damage spillovers may occur. First, the dynamics of partners' growth determine future trends in Vietnam's volume of exports. Second, since the domestic impact of climate change may be heterogeneous across countries, there will be a differentiated impact on export and import market shares. Both terms play a critical role in changing trade patterns that are likely to shift Vietnam's external constraint. This demand-side view of growth based on the balance-of-payments constraint is a powerful predictor of inter-country growth differences. Our study show that the consequences of climate change could equate to a 2.5% reduction in Vietnam's growth rate over the period 2020-2060. Our decomposition exercise by effect and by partner area shows that international damage spillovers result from very different individual behaviours.
{"title":"Vietnam's Long-run Growth: Connecting the Dots through Climate Damage Spillovers","authors":"Elodie Mania, Thi Thu-Ha Nguyen, Arsène Rieber, Thi Anh-Dao Tran","doi":"10.11130/jei.2024003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2024003","url":null,"abstract":"We propose to examine how climate damage may transform Vietnam's long-run growth rate. Because of cross-country linkages forged by bilateral trade, there are two channels through which international damage spillovers may occur. First, the dynamics of partners' growth determine future trends in Vietnam's volume of exports. Second, since the domestic impact of climate change may be heterogeneous across countries, there will be a differentiated impact on export and import market shares. Both terms play a critical role in changing trade patterns that are likely to shift Vietnam's external constraint. This demand-side view of growth based on the balance-of-payments constraint is a powerful predictor of inter-country growth differences. Our study show that the consequences of climate change could equate to a 2.5% reduction in Vietnam's growth rate over the period 2020-2060. Our decomposition exercise by effect and by partner area shows that international damage spillovers result from very different individual behaviours.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"12 13","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140240908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
the impact of the pandemic on developed, emerging and the U.
大流行病对发达国家、新兴国家和美国的影响
{"title":"Impact of COVID-19 Crisis on Volatility Spillovers across Global Financial Markets: Evidence from Asymmetric GARCH Models","authors":"Muhammad Niaz Khan","doi":"10.11130/jei.2024005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2024005","url":null,"abstract":"the impact of the pandemic on developed, emerging and the U.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"55 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140266573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-15DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.670
Jean-Claude Kouakou Brou, Jamal Bouoiyour
This paper aims to analyse the evolution of public debt in South Africa using new and original methods. The case of South Africa has been little studied in the literature on debt because the level of debt in this country remains reasonable. Moreover, the use of non-standard methods allows for a fine-grained analysis of the public debt time series and, consequently, to draw unprecedented conclusions. Using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) method borrowed from solid state physics and medicine, we conclude that South Africa's debt has a multifractal character, which originates from the long memory effect. Thus, South Africa's public debt is unsustainable. The inefficiency of this market has been particularly exacerbated by the various shocks throughout the sample period.
{"title":"South Africa's Public Debt: Long-term Dependence, Structural Breaks and Multifractality","authors":"Jean-Claude Kouakou Brou, Jamal Bouoiyour","doi":"10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.670","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to analyse the evolution of public debt in South Africa using new and original methods. The case of South Africa has been little studied in the literature on debt because the level of debt in this country remains reasonable. Moreover, the use of non-standard methods allows for a fine-grained analysis of the public debt time series and, consequently, to draw unprecedented conclusions. Using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) method borrowed from solid state physics and medicine, we conclude that South Africa's debt has a multifractal character, which originates from the long memory effect. Thus, South Africa's public debt is unsustainable. The inefficiency of this market has been particularly exacerbated by the various shocks throughout the sample period.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"79 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138996287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-15DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.628
A. Abdullahi, S. Ibrahim, L. S. Hook, W. Ngah
This paper investigated the impact of financial integration on economic development using the dynamic panel quantile estimator on a sample of 95 countries from 2004-2019. The results showed that the impact of financial integration on economic development varied across income levels. This study found that financial integration impacted economic development negatively in middle and high-income countries. However, financial integration did not significantly affect economic development in low-income countries.
{"title":"Impact of Financial Integration on Economic Development: A Dynamic Panel Quantile Regression Analysis","authors":"A. Abdullahi, S. Ibrahim, L. S. Hook, W. Ngah","doi":"10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.628","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigated the impact of financial integration on economic development using the dynamic panel quantile estimator on a sample of 95 countries from 2004-2019. The results showed that the impact of financial integration on economic development varied across income levels. This study found that financial integration impacted economic development negatively in middle and high-income countries. However, financial integration did not significantly affect economic development in low-income countries.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"45 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139000057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-15DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.602
Houssem Eddine Hmida, Serge Rey
Energy poverty deteriorates the human capital and the growth potential in the developing and emerging countries. We estimate the long-run effect of electricity access, modern renewable energy consumption, and traditional renewable energy consumption on human development (index). We use an AutoRegressive Distributed Lag/ARDL model based on pooled mean group estimation for a panel of 44 southern countries, representing three energy-poor regions of the world over the period 1990-2018. By distinguishing two groups of countries according to their level of HDI, we show that it exists a positive and significant relationship between electricity access and human development in countries with low and medium HDI and a positive effect of modern renewable energy on the level of human development in countries with higher HDI. In addition, the estimations reveal a significant negative effect of conventional renewable energy use on human development for the two countries groups.
{"title":"Energy Transition, Human Development and Energy Justice in the Southern Countries","authors":"Houssem Eddine Hmida, Serge Rey","doi":"10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.602","url":null,"abstract":"Energy poverty deteriorates the human capital and the growth potential in the developing and emerging countries. We estimate the long-run effect of electricity access, modern renewable energy consumption, and traditional renewable energy consumption on human development (index). We use an AutoRegressive Distributed Lag/ARDL model based on pooled mean group estimation for a panel of 44 southern countries, representing three energy-poor regions of the world over the period 1990-2018. By distinguishing two groups of countries according to their level of HDI, we show that it exists a positive and significant relationship between electricity access and human development in countries with low and medium HDI and a positive effect of modern renewable energy on the level of human development in countries with higher HDI. In addition, the estimations reveal a significant negative effect of conventional renewable energy use on human development for the two countries groups.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"43 44","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138995850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-15DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.529
Kyeongbae Kim
The existing literature on trade and peace has not definitively established whether bilateral trade reduces the probability of militarized conflict. While estimated effects remain highly sensitive to empirical specifications, a commonly overlooked aspect within this literature is the insufficient consideration of potential heterogeneous relationships across country pairs and the temporal dependence of conflicts. In this paper, we present supportive evidence of the pacifying effect of trade when both heterogeneity and temporal dependence are simultaneously taken into account. By applying the Arellano-Bond model to datasets from Keshk, Pollins, and Reuveny (2004) and Hegre, Oneal, and Russett (2010), which respectively indicated no and negative effects of trade on conflict, we find that bilateral trade significantly reduces the likelihood of conflict in both datasets. This finding adds further support to liberal claims regarding the interconnected nature of economic interdependence and conflict.
{"title":"Trade and Peace Revisited","authors":"Kyeongbae Kim","doi":"10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.529","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.529","url":null,"abstract":"The existing literature on trade and peace has not definitively established whether bilateral trade reduces the probability of militarized conflict. While estimated effects remain highly sensitive to empirical specifications, a commonly overlooked aspect within this literature is the insufficient consideration of potential heterogeneous relationships across country pairs and the temporal dependence of conflicts. In this paper, we present supportive evidence of the pacifying effect of trade when both heterogeneity and temporal dependence are simultaneously taken into account. By applying the Arellano-Bond model to datasets from Keshk, Pollins, and Reuveny (2004) and Hegre, Oneal, and Russett (2010), which respectively indicated no and negative effects of trade on conflict, we find that bilateral trade significantly reduces the likelihood of conflict in both datasets. This finding adds further support to liberal claims regarding the interconnected nature of economic interdependence and conflict.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"345 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138996499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-15DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.545
Nazarena Delicia Maffini, Fernando Antonio Ignacio González
This paper analyzes the effects of international borders and of trade agreements on subnational development in Argentina. The identification strategy leverages the Mercosur trade services agreement in 2005, and the different proximity of the districts to the international border with member countries. Two main outcomes are analyzed: economic growth and inequality. For this purpose, an annual panel of districts covering more than two decades (1992-2013) is used. The results show that the presence of an international border has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of border districts (-0.14 percentage points of GDP annually) but also contributes to reducing inequality compared to districts without a border. On the other hand, a commercial integration agreement tends to partially offset the negative effects on economic growth (+0.04 percentage points of GDP annually). The results of the paper are relevant in terms of trade and development policy recommendations: deepening integration agreements constitutes a potential mechanism to boost growth in the poorest regions and thus reduce subnational disparities.
{"title":"International Borders, Integration and Economic Development: Evidence from Argentina","authors":"Nazarena Delicia Maffini, Fernando Antonio Ignacio González","doi":"10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2023.38.4.545","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the effects of international borders and of trade agreements on subnational development in Argentina. The identification strategy leverages the Mercosur trade services agreement in 2005, and the different proximity of the districts to the international border with member countries. Two main outcomes are analyzed: economic growth and inequality. For this purpose, an annual panel of districts covering more than two decades (1992-2013) is used. The results show that the presence of an international border has a negative and significant effect on the economic growth of border districts (-0.14 percentage points of GDP annually) but also contributes to reducing inequality compared to districts without a border. On the other hand, a commercial integration agreement tends to partially offset the negative effects on economic growth (+0.04 percentage points of GDP annually). The results of the paper are relevant in terms of trade and development policy recommendations: deepening integration agreements constitutes a potential mechanism to boost growth in the poorest regions and thus reduce subnational disparities.","PeriodicalId":45678,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":"148 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138998206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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