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Building Scenarios on the Regional Integration in Eurasia along the New Silk Road 新丝绸之路沿线欧亚区域一体化情景构建
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.3.423
Hannes Thees, Greta Erschbamer
Regions are gaining importance as globalization struggles with local sustainable implementation. Thus, regional integration assumes economic development based on transnational cooperation, including regionalization and regionalism. The New Silk Road (NSR) offers a set of policies (including the Belt and Road Initiative) for regional integration that faces challenges in geopolitics and geoeconomics with problems at the local and regional scale, especially along its core corridor, namely, the Eurasian Land Bridge. Therefore, we focus on the NSR implementation by examining the scenarios for future regional integration along the NSR in Eurasia. Using a stepwise scenario building method, including a literature review and qualitative interviews, four scenarios are outlined to explore regional cooperation and the impacts: from (1) withdrawal/reduction of the NSR towards (2) solo efforts by Chinese shareholders, (3) corridorintegration and finally, (4) deep regional integration. This study examines the interface between economic geography and international relations.
随着全球化与地方可持续实施的斗争,区域正变得越来越重要。因此,区域一体化是以跨国合作为基础的经济发展,包括区域化和区域主义。新丝绸之路(NSR)为区域一体化提供了一套政策(包括“一带一路”倡议),面临地缘政治和地缘经济方面的挑战,在地方和区域范围内存在问题,特别是在其核心走廊,即欧亚大陆桥沿线。因此,我们通过研究欧亚大陆“西北航道”沿线未来区域一体化的情景来关注“西北航道”的实施。本文采用文献综述和定性访谈等逐步情景构建方法,概述了四种情景,以探讨区域合作及其影响:从(1)撤资/减少“低噪音噪音区域”到(2)中国股东单独努力,(3)走廊整合,最后(4)深度区域整合。本研究考察了经济地理学与国际关系之间的联系。
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引用次数: 1
Examining the Non-Linear Impact of External Debt on Economic Convergence 考察外债对经济趋同的非线性影响
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.3.377
T. Le, Lana Phan
This article investigates the impact of external debt on economic convergence in 201 economies from 1990 to 2020. Panel data collected from the fiscal space database of the World Bank are analyzed using the conditional beta convergence framework. Results show that external debt negatively affects growth and there is no evidence to support the non-linear association. However, external debt influences the convergence speed in an inverted-U-shaped fashion. The economic convergence speeds up as the level of indebtedness increases to a threshold above which the convergence slows down as the level of foreign debts continues to increase. We also disaggregate external debt into its six sub-components and discover the non-linear effects of private debts and debts denominated in domestic currency on the convergence process.
本文研究了1990 - 2020年201个经济体的外债对经济趋同的影响。从世界银行财政空间数据库收集的面板数据使用条件贝塔收敛框架进行分析。结果表明,外债对经济增长有负向影响,但没有证据支持这种非线性关联。然而,外债对趋同速度的影响呈倒u型。经济趋同随着负债水平的增加而加速,超过这个阈值,随着外债水平的继续增加,趋同就会减缓。我们还将外债分解为六个子部分,并发现私人债务和以本币计价的债务对趋同过程的非线性影响。
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引用次数: 1
ESG Performance of Multinational Companies and Stock Price Crash: Evidence from Korea 跨国公司ESG绩效与股价暴跌:来自韩国的证据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.3.523
J. Lee, Jin-Hyung Cho, Bong Joon Kim
Our research focuses on the relationship between the ESG performance of South Korean multinational companies and stock price crash in next year. For our study, we divide samples into three different categories - namely, all companies, multinational companies (MNC) and non-multinational companies(non-MNC). Our major findings are as following. First, we find the negative relationship between the social (S) score of multinational companies and future price crash, indicating that their social performance prevents price crash risk. Second, when individual ESG performance is considered, there exists negative relationship between environmental (E) and social (S) score, and future price crash for multinational companies. Lastly, we find negative relationship between the ESG score and future price crash, which is due to the high environmental (E) and social (S) score of MNCs, which, in turn, raise each respective score for all companies, which has high correlation with their ESG scores. In this research, focusing on features of ESG on price crash in Korean MNCs, we identify the mitigating effect of social (S) factor for the MNC, which is in consistence with previous researches.
我们的研究重点是韩国跨国公司的ESG表现与明年股价暴跌之间的关系。在我们的研究中,我们将样本分为三类,即所有公司、跨国公司和非跨国公司。我们的主要发现如下。首先,我们发现跨国公司的社会(S)得分与未来价格崩溃之间存在负相关关系,表明它们的社会表现可以防止价格崩溃风险。其次,当考虑个人ESG绩效时,跨国公司的环境(E)和社会(S)得分与未来价格暴跌之间存在负相关。最后,我们发现ESG得分与未来价格暴跌之间存在负相关关系,这是由于跨国公司的高环境(E)和社会(S)得分,这反过来又提高了所有公司的各自得分,这与它们的ESG得分高度相关。本研究针对ESG对韩国跨国公司价格暴跌的影响特征,确定了社会(S)因素对跨国公司的缓解作用,这与以往的研究一致。
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引用次数: 2
The Taylor Rule in Egypt: Is it Optimal? Is there Equilibrium Determinacy? 埃及的泰勒法则:是否最优?是否存在平衡确定性?
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.3.484
Mohamed Maher, Yanzhi Zhao, Chuanzhong Tang
We investigate Egypt's Taylor rule (interest rate targeting) between 1976 and 2019 by including the main economic variables in its reaction function. Using the Taylor principle, we investigate Egypt’s monetary policy optimality. To this end, we conduct the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure with different Taylor rule specifications to deal with potential endogeneity among variables. Our GMM estimates reveal that the partial adjustment coefficient is of considerable magnitude, indicating the explanatory power of policy inertia on many total variations in the current values of the nominal interest rate in Egypt. Furthermore, the inflation gap coefficient violates the Taylor principle, making the policy procyclical and inflation "spiral" and inducing divergence from the long-run equilibrium. Therefore, Egypt's Taylor rule, and thus monetary policy, reflects the indeterminacy of equilibrium and is a passive and destabilizing policy. Besides, the output gap coefficient was unexpectedly found to be insignificant.
我们通过将主要经济变量纳入其反应函数,研究了1976年至2019年间埃及的泰勒规则(利率目标)。利用泰勒原理,我们研究了埃及货币政策的最优性。为此,我们采用不同泰勒规则规范的广义矩量法(GMM)估计程序来处理变量之间的潜在内生性。我们的GMM估计显示,部分调整系数具有相当大的幅度,表明政策惯性对埃及名义利率现值的许多总体变化的解释力。此外,通胀缺口系数违反了泰勒原理,使政策顺周期性和通胀“螺旋”上升,并导致偏离长期均衡。因此,埃及的泰勒规则以及货币政策反映了均衡的不确定性,是一种被动的、破坏稳定的政策。此外,意外发现产出缺口系数不显著。
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引用次数: 0
New Globalization and Multipolarity: A Critical Review and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Case 新全球化与多极化:区域全面经济伙伴关系案例的批判性回顾
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.3.458
Charis Vlados, Dimos Chatzinikolaou, Badar Alam qbal
The present evolutionary phase in international economic and political relations involves the analysis of a "new globalization" and the profound reshaping of multipolarity. This article examines the fundamental elements of the newly emerging globalization morphology from a critical standpoint on the key aspects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). It aims to discern why such free trade agreements are significant expressions and imprints of the unfolding new multipolarity. It focuses on crucial dimensions of such international socioeconomic agreements for deepened global cooperation and development. For the analysis, we distinguish between the structures of the previous globalization regime and some evolutionary dimensions of the gradual transition to a "new globalization" (e.g., the RCEP). We contend that such agreements enrich regional economic and social integration and can expand globalized transnational flows, thereby boosting efficient cooperation for reconstructing future dynamics of international economic development.
当前国际经济和政治关系的演变阶段涉及对“新全球化”的分析和对多极化的深刻重塑。本文从区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)的关键方面出发,从批判的角度审视了新兴全球化形态的基本要素。它的目的是了解为什么这样的自由贸易协定是正在发展的新多极的重要表达和印记。它侧重于这些国际社会经济协定的重要方面,以深化全球合作与发展。在分析中,我们区分了以前全球化制度的结构和逐步过渡到“新全球化”(例如RCEP)的一些进化维度。我们认为,这些协定丰富了区域经济和社会一体化,可以扩大全球化的跨国流动,从而促进有效合作,重建国际经济发展的未来动力。
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引用次数: 4
Natural Resource Dependence, Corruption, and Tax Revenue Mobilization 自然资源依赖、腐败与税收调动
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.2.316
Oumarou Zallé
This paper explores the dynamic interactions between natural resource dependence, corruption, and tax revenue mobilization worldwide. The empirical analysis used a cross-section augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) approach that accounts for time dynamics, cross-sectional heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. The results show that the interaction between natural resource dependence, corruption, and tax revenue mobilization is complex and depends on the type of tax revenue. For example, reducing corruption stimulates non-resource tax revenue mobilization compared to total tax revenue; however, tax revenue mobilization is sometimes a source of corruption and evasion of natural resource rents. The results suggest that tax administration institutions need to be strengthened to limit predatory and rent-seeking behavior.
本文探讨了全球范围内自然资源依赖、腐败和税收调动之间的动态相互作用。实证分析采用了横截面增强自回归分布滞后(CS-ARDL)方法,该方法考虑了时间动力学、横截面异质性和横截面依赖性。结果表明,自然资源依赖、腐败和税收调动之间的相互作用是复杂的,并取决于税收的类型。例如,与税收总额相比,减少腐败会刺激非资源税收入的调动;然而,税收调动有时是腐败和逃避自然资源租金的一个来源。建议加强税收征管制度建设,限制掠夺性和寻租行为。
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引用次数: 1
Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study 澳门与中国大陆一体化的经济效应:一个因果推论研究
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.2.179
Cruz A. Echevarría, Serhat Hasancebi, Javier García‐Enríquez
Macao was a Portuguese colony until 1999, when its sovereignty was transferred to China, initiating its integration process. This article attempts to estimate the consequences of this socio-economic process in terms of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). We build a panel data set spanning 1970 to 2012, with 25 countries, setting 2000 as the initial treatment year for the integration process. The analysis is carried out through two alternative methodologies: the synthetic control method and the panel data approach. The integration treatment had a significant, positive effect on Macao’s per capita GDP. As additional outcome variables, we also analyze the effects of integration on the per capita net inflow of foreign direct investment, the unemployment rate, and the per capita exports and imports of goods and services.
澳门一直是葡萄牙的殖民地,直到1999年主权移交给中国,开始了其一体化进程。本文试图从人均国内生产总值的角度来估计这一社会经济进程的后果。我们建立了一个涵盖1970年至2012年的面板数据集,共有25个国家,将2000年作为整合过程的初始治疗年。分析通过两种替代方法进行:综合控制方法和面板数据方法。一体化待遇对澳门的人均国内生产总值产生了显著的积极影响。作为额外的结果变量,我们还分析了一体化对人均外国直接投资净流入、失业率以及人均商品和服务进出口的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Internet, Participation in International Trade, and Tax Revenue Instability 互联网、参与国际贸易与税收不稳定
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.2.267
S. Gnangnon
This study investigates the effect of the Internet on tax revenue instability (TRI), notably through the international trade channel. It used a sample of 142 countries over the period 1995-2017 and relied primarily on the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. The findings indicate that greater access to the Internet negatively affects TRI, and this effect works through the trade openness avenue. Especially, countries enjoy a higher negative effect of the Internet on TRI as they experience a greater trade openness. Moreover, Internet access reduces TRI in countries that have experienced a greater extent of tax reform and a greater export product concentration. Therefore, these findings add to the potential benefits of Internet adoption by showing that it could also help stabilize tax revenue, particularly through countries’ participation in international trade.
本研究调查了互联网对税收不稳定的影响,特别是通过国际贸易渠道。它使用了1995-2017年期间142个国家的样本,主要依赖于矩估计的两步系统广义方法。研究结果表明,更多地使用互联网会对TRI产生负面影响,这种影响通过贸易开放途径发挥作用。特别是,随着各国贸易开放程度的提高,互联网对TRI的负面影响更大。此外,在经历了更大程度的税收改革和出口产品更集中的国家,互联网接入减少了TRI。因此,这些发现增加了采用互联网的潜在好处,表明它也有助于稳定税收,特别是通过各国参与国际贸易。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Integration and Intra-national Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Mexico’s States from 1980 to 2019 贸易一体化和国内商业周期同步:1980年至2019年墨西哥各州的证据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.2.216
M. Gómez‐Zaldívar, Fernando Garcia-Barragan
This study documents the adjustment in the business cycles of Mexico’s states that resulted from trade liberalization. It also analyzes the relevance of the various elements that previous studies have proposed as the determining factors of the synchronization of these cycles. Our results reveal that these determinants are relevant throughout the sample period (1980-2019), but their relative importance changes over time as does their synchronization. This may be explained as follows: trade liberalization caused a regional and sectoral reallocation of resources, which in turn led to some states becoming increasingly interlinked based on their economic structures, whereas the remaining states became less synchronized with the former states. This case should be of interest to other developing countries that are dependent on the world’s capital and trade flows and whose regions may respond heterogeneously if they have diverse economic structures as those of Mexico.
这项研究记录了贸易自由化对墨西哥各州商业周期的调整。它还分析了先前研究提出的作为这些周期同步的决定因素的各种因素的相关性。我们的研究结果表明,这些决定因素在整个样本期(1980-2019)都是相关的,但它们的相对重要性随着时间的推移而变化,它们的同步性也是如此。这可以解释如下:贸易自由化导致了区域和部门资源的重新分配,这反过来又导致一些国家根据其经济结构变得越来越相互联系,而其余国家与前一个国家的同步性降低。这种情况应该引起依赖世界资本和贸易流动的其他发展中国家的兴趣,如果这些国家的经济结构与墨西哥不同,它们的地区可能会做出不同的反应。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Competition Policy on Macroeconomic Outcomes 竞争政策对宏观经济结果的影响
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.2.337
Hyung Ju Hong
This paper examines existing empirical research regarding the importance of competition and competition policy for variables relevant to macroeconomic outcomes. This research provides evidence on the correlations between competition, competition policy, and macroeconomic outcomes, such as productivity, growth, innovation, employment, and inequality. Competition policy is demonstrated to bring multiple benefits for macroeconomic outcomes in several economic studies. Gains from enhanced competition can essentially be divided into efficiency and redistribution effects. Efficiency gains result from the positive impact of competition on productivity growth, which allows firms and industries to produce more and better products and services at lower cost, whereas redistribution effects are associated with the impact of competition on inequality and employment in the market.
本文考察了现有的关于竞争和竞争政策对宏观经济结果相关变量的重要性的实证研究。这项研究为竞争、竞争政策和宏观经济结果(如生产率、增长、创新、就业和不平等)之间的相关性提供了证据。在一些经济学研究中,竞争政策被证明为宏观经济结果带来多重利益。加强竞争带来的收益基本上可以分为效率和再分配效应。效率的提高源于竞争对生产率增长的积极影响,这使得企业和行业能够以更低的成本生产更多更好的产品和服务,而再分配效应则与竞争对市场不平等和就业的影响有关。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Integration
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