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Measuring Agricultural Trade Integration in Southeast Asia 衡量东南亚农业贸易一体化
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.2.235
Antoine Bouët, A. Elbehri, D. Nguyen, F. Traoré
This paper offers an evaluation of agricultural trade integration in Southeast Asia. Since the ultimate objective is to provide policy recommendations, the indicators presented include those obtained from a measurement based on trade barriers: tariffs applied on imports, tariffs faced by exports, customs procedures and trade facilitation measures, and nontariff measures. A new estimation of the trade impact of nontariff measures in the agrifood sector is provided, based on refinements to the methodology of Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga (2009) and Ghodsi, Grübler, and Stehrer (2016a). Globally, the Southeast Asian region appears to be relatively open to the world, but regional integration could be strengthened, particularly in the agriculture and food sectors. Specifically, a convergence of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures and Technical Barriers to Trade measures could achieve more integration.
本文对东南亚地区的农业贸易一体化进行了评价。由于最终目标是提供政策建议,因此所提出的指标包括从基于贸易壁垒的衡量中获得的指标:对进口征收的关税、出口面临的关税、海关程序和贸易便利化措施以及非关税措施。本文基于对Kee、Nicita和Olarreaga(2009)以及Ghodsi、gr bler和Stehrer (2016a)的方法的改进,对农业食品部门非关税措施的贸易影响进行了新的估计。在全球范围内,东南亚地区似乎对世界相对开放,但区域一体化可以加强,特别是在农业和粮食部门。具体而言,将卫生和植物检疫措施与技术性贸易壁垒措施结合起来可以实现更多的一体化。
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引用次数: 1
Do Japan’s Free Trade Agreements Increase Its International Trade? 日本的自由贸易协定增加了国际贸易吗?
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.1
M. Ando, S. Urata, Kenta Yamanouchi
This study analyzes the impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade, focusing on Japan’s FTAs. In particular, we examined both static and dynamic effects at the aggregated and disaggregated levels, using two datasets between 1995 and 2016 for Japanese trade only and world trade. For the static analysis, we investigated the overall impacts and the effect of individual FTAs. Regarding dynamic analysis, we considered the time since their enactment. Our results indicate that the impacts are heterogeneous among Japan’s FTAs and products, with a trade creation effect for some FTA partners. Moreover, our findings reveal that the trade creation effect is probably overestimated when trade between the third countries is not considered. We also found a positive dynamic effect for some products. Such a dynamic effect may emerge due to a longer time for firms to understand FTAs and learn their use and the gradual tariff reduction for some products.
本研究以日本的自由贸易协定为研究对象,分析了自由贸易协定对双边贸易的影响。特别是,我们使用1995年至2016年间仅针对日本贸易和世界贸易的两个数据集,在汇总和分类层面上研究了静态和动态影响。对于静态分析,我们调查了整体影响和个别FTA的影响。关于动态分析,我们考虑了它们颁布以来的时间。我们的研究结果表明,日本自由贸易协定和产品之间的影响是异质的,对一些自由贸易协定伙伴来说具有贸易创造效应。此外,我们的研究结果表明,如果不考虑第三国之间的贸易,贸易创造效应可能会被高估。我们还发现一些产品具有积极的动态效应。这种动态效应可能会出现,因为企业需要更长的时间来理解自由贸易协定并了解其使用,以及一些产品的关税逐步降低。
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引用次数: 4
A Comparative Analysis of the Effects of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement on the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 in North and Southern Africa 非洲大陆自由贸易协定对新冠肺炎对北非和南部非洲经济影响的比较分析
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.121
Pousseni Bakouan, Issaka Dialga, P. Zidouemba
COVID-19 has forced many governments to take emergency health measures which are undermining productive capacities and disrupting global supply chains. Southern and Northern Africa have been heavily impacted by such measures. According to UNCTAD statistics (2021), the average annual growth rate of exports in Northern and Southern Africa fell by 27.61% and 6.96%, respectively in 2020. Yet, the effective operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) could have limited some of the pandemic’s economic impacts. Using a computable general equilibrium model, this paper first analyzes the pandemic’s economic impact and then assesses the ability of the AfCFTA to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID-19. The simulation results show that the AfCFTA would mitigate the economic impact in Southern and Northern Africa. It reduces the decline in intra-regional exports by 7.87 percentage points in 2021. The study emphasizes the need to remove non-tariff barriers to amplify potential positive effects.
新冠肺炎迫使许多政府采取紧急卫生措施,这削弱了生产能力,扰乱了全球供应链。南部和北部非洲受到这些措施的严重影响。根据贸发会议的统计数据(2021年),2020年,北非和南部非洲的出口年均增长率分别下降了27.61%和6.96%。然而,《非洲大陆自由贸易协定》(AfCFTA)的有效实施可能会限制疫情对经济的一些影响。使用可计算的一般均衡模型,本文首先分析了疫情对经济的影响,然后评估了AfCFTA减轻新冠肺炎经济影响的能力。模拟结果表明,AfCFTA将减轻对南部和北部非洲的经济影响。它将2021年区域内出口的下降幅度降低了7.87个百分点。该研究强调,有必要消除非关税壁垒,以扩大潜在的积极影响。
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引用次数: 1
Money Demand Function: A Not-So-Fond Farewell in the Light of Financial Development 货币需求函数:金融发展视野中的不那么美好的告别
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.93
Masudul Hasan Adil, N. Hatekar, Sana Fatima, Ibrahim Nurudeen, Shanga Mohammad
This study investigates the stability issues of real money balances considering financial development. We estimate real narrow (M1) and broad (M3) money demand in India during the post-financial reform, from 1996:Q2 to 2016:Q3. To check the short- and long-run relationships, this study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model of cointegration and other various time series techniques. After incorporating financial development into money demand, we determined short- and long-run relationships and a well-defined open-economy stable money demand specification (M1 and M3) in India. Having established money demand function, the policymaker and central bankers can use monetary aggregates as an indicator or information variable to predict output gaps and inflationary expectations under the inflation-targeting framework.
本研究考察了考虑金融发展的实际货币余额的稳定性问题。我们估计了1996年第二季度至2016年第三季度金融改革后印度的实际狭义(M1)和广义(M3)货币需求。为了检验短期和长期关系,本研究使用了协整的自回归分布滞后模型和其他各种时间序列技术。在将金融发展纳入货币需求后,我们确定了印度的短期和长期关系以及明确的开放经济稳定货币需求规范(M1和M3)。在建立了货币需求函数后,决策者和央行行长可以使用货币总量作为指标或信息变量,在通胀目标框架下预测产出缺口和通胀预期。
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引用次数: 2
Liberalizing Immigration Policies for the UK Agricultural Sector in the Post-Brexit Era 后脱欧时代英国农业移民政策的自由化
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.158
S. Angioloni, Maria Berrittella, Ziping Wu, Angel H. Aguiar
We investigate the effects of immigration policies on the UK agricultural sector under the new post-Brexit deal through a computable general equilibrium framework. We consider bilateral flows of migrants and frictions as part of capital and labor mobility to compare the point-based immigration system to open immigration policies in terms of their impacts on agriculture. We also integrate the GTAP-GMig2 immigration model with the GTAP-AGR agriculture model. Our findings show that liberal immigration policies have positive effects on production, farmers’ income, and overall welfare. The benefits increase if these policies are combined with reduced bureaucracy and lower behind-the-border costs in trade relationships.
我们通过可计算的一般均衡框架研究了脱欧后新协议下移民政策对英国农业部门的影响。我们将双边移民流动和摩擦视为资本和劳动力流动的一部分,以比较基于积分的移民制度和开放的移民政策对农业的影响。我们还将GTAP-GMig2移民模型与GTAP-AGR农业模型相结合。我们的研究结果表明,自由移民政策对生产、农民收入和整体福利都有积极影响。如果这些政策与减少官僚作风和降低贸易关系中的幕后成本相结合,收益就会增加。
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引用次数: 0
Investment in ESG Projects and Corporate Performance of Multinational Companies ESG项目投资与跨国公司绩效
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.54
V. Cherkasova, Irina Nenuzhenko
This study investigates whether investing in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) projects boosts corporate financial performance. It also examines whether these projects trigger the company’s default due to the high costs of such projects, depending on whether the firm is multinational and its headquarter region. To obtain robust results, we conduct the examination separately for seven regions: North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, emerging Asia, and Developed Asia. We examine firm-level indicators of 1,249 companies and are headquartered in different regions for 2011-2019. We find that the company’s headquarter region influences the interrelationship between financial performance and ESG activities. The most successful companies in ESG development are international companies and those headquartered in developing or Developed Asia or North America. Meanwhile, Latin American firms, both local and multinational, experience significant challenges during the implementation of ESG initiatives.
这项研究调查了投资于环境、社会和治理(ESG)项目是否能提高公司的财务业绩。它还考察了这些项目是否会因这些项目的高成本而引发公司违约,这取决于公司是否是跨国公司及其总部地区。为了获得稳健的结果,我们分别对七个地区进行了检查:北美、拉丁美洲、西欧、东欧、中东和非洲、新兴亚洲和发达亚洲。我们研究了1249家公司的企业级指标,这些公司的总部位于2011-2019年的不同地区。我们发现,公司总部地区影响财务业绩与ESG活动之间的相互关系。ESG发展中最成功的公司是国际公司以及总部位于发展中或发达亚洲或北美的公司。与此同时,拉丁美洲公司,无论是本地公司还是跨国公司,在实施ESG举措过程中都面临着重大挑战。
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引用次数: 3
Monetary Agreements Reform and Issue of the Key Fiscal Convergence Criterion in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) 西非经济货币联盟货币协议改革与关键财政趋同标准问题
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2022.37.1.30
L. Kebalo, Stéphane Zouri
This paper estimates a fiscal deficit threshold that maximizes economic growth and is favorable to business cycles synchronization given the compliance of countries. The analysis covers the eight countries that form the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) across 1990-2018. Our results show that 11.42% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the fiscal deficit threshold which should not to be exceeded and that fulfills the aforementioned conditions. Since the debt relief program in 2006, however, this threshold has been reduced from 11% to 3.97%. Therefore, compliance with the key fiscal convergence criterion limiting the fiscal deficit to 3% of the GDP and in force in the Union is pro-growth and favorable to business cycles synchronization. However, even if this convergence criterion seems rigorous for fiscal discipline and can be maintained, it could be adjusted to 4%. The paper discusses the advantages of this proposed adjustment.
本文估计了一个财政赤字阈值,该阈值使经济增长最大化,并有利于在各国遵守的情况下实现商业周期同步。该分析涵盖了1990-2018年间组成西非经济和货币联盟(西非经货联盟)的八个国家。我们的结果表明,11.42%的国内生产总值是不应超过的财政赤字阈值,并且符合上述条件。然而,自2006年实施债务减免计划以来,这一门槛已从11%降至3.97%。因此,遵守将财政赤字限制在GDP的3%并在欧盟生效的关键财政趋同标准有利于经济增长,有利于商业周期的同步。然而,即使这一趋同标准对财政纪律来说似乎很严格,并且可以维持,它也可以调整为4%。本文讨论了这一拟议调整的优点。
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引用次数: 2
Symmetric and Asymmetric Causal Relationship between Oil Prices and G7 Stock Markets: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Granger Causality Test 油价与G7股市的对称与非对称因果关系:一个自举滚动窗Granger因果检验
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2021.36.4.718
Khaled Mokni, Mohamed Sahbi Nakhli, Othman Mnari, Khemaies Bougatef
This study examines the causal relationships between oil prices and the MSCI stock index of G7 countries between September 2004 and October 2020. This study is novel in implementing symmetric and asymmetric time-varying causality tests based on the bootstrap rolling-window approach. The results reveal that the causal link between oil prices and G7 stock markets is time-dependent. The periods of bidirectional causality roughly coincide with the global financial crisis and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. When asymmetry is accounted for, the results suggest an asymmetric causality between the two markets expressed by different patterns regarding positive and negative oil shocks. The results also indicate symmetric causality during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings have implications for portfolio design and hedging strategies that are important to both policymakers and investors.
本研究考察了2004年9月至2020年10月期间七国集团国家的油价与摩根士丹利资本国际股票指数之间的因果关系。这项研究在实现基于自举滚动窗口方法的对称和非对称时变因果关系测试方面是新颖的。研究结果表明,油价与七国集团股票市场之间的因果关系具有时间依赖性。双向因果关系的时期大致与全球金融危机和持续的新冠肺炎大流行相吻合。当考虑到不对称性时,结果表明,两个市场之间存在不对称的因果关系,表现为积极和消极的石油冲击的不同模式。研究结果还表明,新冠肺炎大流行期间存在对称因果关系。这些发现对决策者和投资者都很重要的投资组合设计和对冲策略具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 4
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and Environmental Consequences 跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系及其对环境的影响
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2021.36.4.549
Dhimitri Qirjo, Razvan Pascalau, Robert Christopherson
We empirically investigate the effect of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the per capita emissions of eight air pollutants and municipal waste. By introducing the same explanatory variables and applying the same empirical strategy and methodologies as in Qirjo and Pascalau (2019), we provide robust evidence suggesting that the implementation of the partnership could be beneficial to the environment because it may reduce per capita emissions of CH4, hydrofluorocarbons/ perfluorinated chemicals/ SF6, N2O, NH3, and SF6 for a typical partnership member. This result is based on statistically significant evidence showing that, on average, the pollution haven motive based on national per capita income variations is dominated by the factor endowment argument based on the Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory and the pollution haven motive originating from an inverse measurement of national population density differences. However, we also report statistically significant evidence that the implementation of the partnership could denigrate the environment by increasing per capita emissions of SO2 and municipal waste.
我们实证研究了跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系对八种空气污染物和城市垃圾人均排放量的影响。通过引入与Qirjo和Pascalau(2019)中相同的解释变量并应用相同的经验策略和方法,我们提供了强有力的证据,表明实施伙伴关系可能对环境有益,因为它可以减少CH4、氢氟碳化合物/全氟化学品/SF6、N2O、NH3,以及SF6用于典型的伙伴关系成员。这一结果基于具有统计学意义的证据,表明平均而言,基于国民人均收入变化的污染避风港动机主要由基于赫克舍尔-奥林贸易理论的要素禀赋论点和源自对国民人口密度差异的反向测量的污染避风港动机所主导。然而,我们也报告了具有统计意义的证据,表明实施伙伴关系可能会增加二氧化硫和城市垃圾的人均排放量,从而诋毁环境。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Globalization, Entrepreneurship, and Inclusive Growth in Africa 经济全球化、企业家精神和非洲包容性增长
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-12-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2021.36.4.689
F. Ajide, T. Osinubi, J. Dada
An increasing number of studies are examining the relationship between entrepreneurship and growth. This relationship is controversial, especially for developing countries. Recent improvements in economic growth have led to a focus on growth inclusiveness, which spreads economic opportunities throughout a society. However, studies that focus on the role of entrepreneurship in inclusive growth remain scarce. To fill that gap, this study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic globalization, entrepreneurship, and inclusive growth in 21 African countries using panel econometrics to examine data covering 2006 to 2018. The results reveal that the impact of economic globalization and entrepreneurship on inclusive growth is positive and significant. We find that economic globalization enhances entrepreneurial development, and causality tests show that economic globalization drives inclusive growth. We also find a unidirectional causality from entrepreneurship to inclusive growth. Finally, we observe no direction of causality between economic globalization and entrepreneurship but observe a bidirectional causality between governance and entrepreneurship. We discuss the implications of these results.
越来越多的研究正在研究创业与成长之间的关系。这种关系是有争议的,尤其是对发展中国家而言。最近经济增长的改善导致了对增长包容性的关注,这种包容性在整个社会中传播经济机会。然而,关注创业在包容性增长中的作用的研究仍然很少。为了填补这一空白,本研究使用面板计量经济学对2006年至2018年的数据进行了检验,调查了21个非洲国家的经济全球化、创业精神和包容性增长之间的动态关系。研究结果表明,经济全球化和创业对包容性增长的影响是积极而显著的。我们发现,经济全球化促进了创业发展,因果关系检验表明,经济全球化推动了包容性增长。我们还发现了从创业到包容性增长的单向因果关系。最后,我们没有观察到经济全球化和创业之间的因果关系,而是观察到治理和创业之间双向的因果关系。我们讨论这些结果的含义。
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引用次数: 25
期刊
Journal of Economic Integration
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