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Does Tax Revenue Improve Economic Complexity in Africa? 税收是否改善了非洲的经济复杂性?
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.2.278
Hermann Ndoya, Pousseni Bakouan
This study assesses the effect of tax revenue on economic complexity in Africa using a sample of 29 African countries from 1995 to 2018. Applying the system generalized method of moments (GMM), we found that tax revenue spurs economic complexity in Africa by providing countries with critical financial resources to produce complex and sophisticated goods. We performed several robustness tests, including controlling for macroeconomic volatility and employing various measures of economic complexity and tax revenue, and the results remain robust. Furthermore, the mediation analysis results show that the effect of tax revenue on economic complexity is mediated by financial development and government spending. This study advocates for government strategies to enact tax reforms and maximize tax revenue mobilization, which will help finance economic complexity.
这项研究使用1995年至2018年29个非洲国家的样本评估了税收对非洲经济复杂性的影响。应用系统广义矩量法(GMM),我们发现税收通过为各国提供生产复杂复杂商品的关键财政资源,刺激了非洲的经济复杂性。我们进行了几次稳健性测试,包括控制宏观经济波动,以及采用各种经济复杂性和税收指标,结果仍然稳健。此外,中介分析结果表明,税收对经济复杂性的影响是由金融发展和政府支出介导的。这项研究倡导政府制定税收改革战略,最大限度地调动税收,这将有助于为经济复杂性融资。
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引用次数: 1
Trade Impediments in Indonesia 印尼的贸易障碍
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.2.247
Barli Suryanta, A. Patunru
This study investigates the effect of various types of trade impediments on Indonesia's trade flows. We categorize tariff measures, non-tariff measures (NTMs), and the lack of trade facilitation measures into at-the-border and behind-the-border barriers. A gravity model is applied to a panel dataset covering 177 of Indonesia's trade partners from 2007 to 2016. This study shows that Indonesia's trade protection remains high, particularly due to the increasing use of NTMs. Furthermore, the lack of trade facilitation also contributes to increasing trade costs, particularly those associated with trade logistics and administration. We also demonstrate why feasible generalized least square is preferable to ordinary least squares and pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood when estimating a gravity model using panel data that are auto-correlated and contain a large number of zero observations.
本研究探讨不同类型的贸易障碍对印尼贸易流动的影响。我们将关税措施、非关税措施和缺乏贸易便利化措施分为边境壁垒和边境后壁垒。重力模型应用于涵盖2007年至2016年印度尼西亚177个贸易伙伴的面板数据集。这项研究表明,印度尼西亚的贸易保护仍然很高,特别是由于ntm的使用越来越多。此外,缺乏贸易便利化也会增加贸易成本,特别是与贸易物流和行政有关的成本。我们还证明了为什么可行的广义最小二乘比普通最小二乘和伪泊松极大似然更可取,当使用自相关和包含大量零观测值的面板数据估计重力模型时。
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引用次数: 2
The Role of Economic Freedom in the Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Former Socialist Countries 经济自由在外国直接投资与经济增长关系中的作用:来自前社会主义国家的证据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.2.322
Ochilov Shokhrukh, Kasimov Ikboljon, Xaldarov Zamon
This study investigates the role of economic freedom in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and its impact on economic growth in 15 former socialist countries from 2000 to 2021 through the Generalized Method of Moments estimation method. Our findings suggest that higher economic freedom helps countries attract additional foreign investment. Furthermore, we found that a one-unit increase in the economic freedom index increases the real gross domestic product per capita by 0.019%. The findings also reveal that a 1% increase in FDI leads to a 0.585% surge in real income per capita, whereas trade openness surges income by 1.24%. These results reveal that FDI has a positive impact on economic growth, suggesting that FDI is an important factor driving economic development in former socialist countries. This study also provides policy recommendations based on the findings, highlighting the importance of promoting free and healthy competition, transparency, accountability, and investment in education and infrastructure.
本研究采用广义矩估计方法,研究了2000-2001年15个前社会主义国家经济自由在吸引外国直接投资中的作用及其对经济增长的影响。我们的研究结果表明,更高的经济自由度有助于各国吸引更多的外国投资。此外,我们发现,经济自由指数每增加一个单位,实际人均国内生产总值就会增加0.019%。研究结果还表明,外国直接投资增加1%,实际人均收入就会增加0.585%,而贸易开放则会增加1.24%,表明外国直接投资是推动前社会主义国家经济发展的重要因素。这项研究还根据调查结果提出了政策建议,强调了促进自由和健康竞争、透明度、问责制以及教育和基础设施投资的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The Necessity and Composition Strategy of the United Nations of the World 世界联合国的必要性及其组成战略
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.2.171
M. Choo
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引用次数: 0
Reducing Capital Flight in Africa: Does Regional Financial Integration Matter? 减少非洲资本外逃:区域金融一体化重要吗?
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.2.186
Celestin Balla Mekongo, H. A. Ondoa, Guy Albert Kenkouo
Capital flight continues to be an issue of paramount importance for developing economies, as it deprives them of the funds required for economic takeoff. Hence, this paper aims to analyze the effect of regional financial integration (RFI) on capital flight in Africa. Based on a sample of 23 countries, we specify and estimate an asset demand model of capital flight using a portfolio choice analysis by the system-generalized method of moments for the period 1996-2015. We find two important results. First, the RFI reduces capital flight. This result becomes even more interesting when the quality of governance is considered. Second, structural breaks in the RFI-capital flight relationship explain why the RFI has had a mixed effect on the capital flight over the study period. We recommend that the attractiveness of regional financial services be enhanced concurrently with the standardization of banking and financial regulation in Africa.
资本外逃仍然是发展中经济体最重要的问题,因为它剥夺了它们经济起飞所需的资金。因此,本文旨在分析区域金融一体化对非洲资本外逃的影响。基于23个国家的样本,我们使用系统广义矩方法进行的投资组合选择分析,指定并估计了1996-2015年期间资本外逃的资产需求模型。我们发现了两个重要的结果。首先,RFI减少了资本外逃。当考虑到治理质量时,这个结果变得更加有趣。其次,RFI资本外逃关系的结构性断裂解释了为什么RFI在研究期间对资本外逃产生了混合影响。我们建议,在非洲银行和金融监管标准化的同时,提高区域金融服务的吸引力。
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引用次数: 0
Official Visits and Economic Freedom 官方访问与经济自由
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.2.219
Oasis Kodila‐Tedika, S. Khalifa
This study examines the effect of U.S. Presidents and Secretaries of State visits to a country on institutional quality, particularly on economic freedom. Hence, the study develops a model that predicts the conditions under which official visits can enhance the quality of institutions. We compile variables on official visits from 1960 to 2019 from the archives of the U.S. State Department to test the predictions of our model. In addition, we use the endogenous treatment model estimation to deal with potential endogeneity. The estimation results show that the official visits have a statistically significant negative effect on economic freedom, particularly in non-democratic countries with less political freedom. The estimation results are robust with different types of visits and samples. The study presents multiple explanations for these results, including the possibility of the following: First, some American administrations adopt a pragmatic approach aimed at achieving strategic objectives while overlooking practices that do not enhance institutional quality. Second, these official visits may improve other aspects of institutional quality that are more observable to the international community than economic freedoms. Third, American policymakers care more about achieving short-term objectives from their visits that can be presented as accomplishments to their electorate rather than institutional reforms that will only yield benefits to the United States in the long run. Finally, economic freedoms are associated with political freedoms per the Hayek-Friedman hypothesis.
这项研究考察了美国总统和国务卿访问一个国家对制度质量的影响,特别是对经济自由的影响。因此,该研究开发了一个模型,预测官方访问可以提高机构质量的条件。我们从美国国务院档案中汇编了1960年至2019年的官方访问变量,以测试我们模型的预测。此外,我们使用内生治疗模型估计来处理潜在的内生性。估计结果表明,官方访问对经济自由产生了统计上显著的负面影响,特别是在政治自由度较低的非民主国家。对于不同类型的访问和样本,估计结果是稳健的。该研究对这些结果提出了多种解释,包括以下可能性:首先,一些美国政府采取了务实的方法,旨在实现战略目标,而忽视了不能提高制度质量的做法。第二,这些正式访问可能会改善国际社会比经济自由更能观察到的体制质量的其他方面。第三,美国政策制定者更关心的是通过访问实现短期目标,这些目标可以被视为选民的成就,而不是从长远来看只会给美国带来好处的体制改革。最后,根据哈耶克-弗里德曼假说,经济自由与政治自由相联系。
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引用次数: 1
Analyzing the Evolution of China-Africa Economic Integration: A Wavelet Approach 中非经济一体化演进的小波分析
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.2.302
Marvellous Ngundu, H. Ngalawa
This study analyzes the evolution of Africa's degree of economic integration with China from 1993 to 2019. The study period encompasses a number of China-Africa bilateral economic treaties, which the literature claims are prolific and have significantly strengthened Africa's degree of economic integration with China. We develop a theoretical argument that, if this assertion holds, the integration indicator must reflect a long-run upward trend that is less obstructed by noise. To validate this argument, we use a wavelet approach and find no evidence necessitating failure to reject the null hypothesis of no periodicity, suggesting that the integration indicator was statistically noisy over the study period. This finding suggests that interpreting the evolution of China-Africa economic integration primarily through bilateral economic pacts can be deceptive. The interpretation should instead be exploratory in nature to unpack some hidden motivations associated with this integration. Our preliminary investigation revealed that the Angola Model is primarily driving China-Africa economic integration. Therefore, it is plausible to argue that China-Africa economic integration is perpetuated to exploit natural resources rather than to enhance hard infrastructure development in Africa, as purported in the literature.
本研究分析了1993年至2019年非洲与中国经济一体化程度的演变。本研究涵盖了许多中非双边经济条约,文献称这些条约内容丰富,显著加强了非洲与中国的经济一体化程度。我们提出了一个理论论点,即如果这一断言成立,那么综合指标必须反映出一个不那么受噪音阻碍的长期上升趋势。为了验证这一论点,我们使用了小波方法,没有发现任何证据表明不能拒绝无周期性的零假设,这表明积分指标在研究期间在统计上是有噪声的。这一发现表明,主要通过双边经济协定来解释中非经济一体化的演变可能具有欺骗性。相反,这种解释应该是探索性的,以解开与这种整合相关的一些隐藏的动机。我们的初步调查显示,安哥拉模式主要推动中非经济一体化。因此,有理由认为,中非经济一体化是为了开发自然资源,而不是像文献中所说的那样,加强非洲的硬基础设施发展。
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引用次数: 1
More Integrated than Ever? Long-Term Market and Policy Drivers of Intra-Asian Trade 比以往任何时候都更加一体化?亚洲内部贸易的长期市场和政策驱动因素
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.1.32
Alejandro Ayuso-Díaz, Antonio Gómez‐Plana
Since the Doha Round stalemate after 2001, trade liberalization has progressed through regional trade agreements (RTAs) and East and Southeast Asia is not unfamiliar with this. Before assessing the effectiveness of recent trade agreements, the long tradition of trade exchange in this region that has lasted for more than 2,000 years necessitates an understanding of the evolution of intra-Asian trade across history. In this regard, this study contributes to the literature examining whether present intra-Asian trade is more or less intense than before 1938. This research outperforms previous studies using a gravity model that controls for changes in GDP and trade costs in the region across four different time periods (between 1840 and 2018). The results show that contemporary regional trade in East and Southeast Asia is slightly less intense than before World War II. A second question addressed is the relevance of trade agreements after the 1985 Plaza Accord on trade integration, compared with market determinants. A second gravity model for regional imports after 1986 is regressed on both policy and market indicators, indicating that the latest wave of intra-Asian trade is characterized by trade complementarities that are fueled by regional foreign direct investment, and free trade agreements are less effective. This result is validated through a network analysis demonstrating the symbiosis between trade and investment flows in the region, which should be considered in RTAs that are in place or in negotiation to take intra-Asian trade beyond its historical limits.
自2001年多哈回合陷入僵局以来,贸易自由化通过区域贸易协定取得了进展,东亚和东南亚对此并不陌生。在评估最近贸易协议的有效性之前,该地区持续了2000多年的长期贸易交流传统需要了解亚洲内部贸易在历史上的演变。在这方面,这项研究有助于研究当前亚洲内部贸易是否比1938年之前更加激烈。这项研究优于之前使用引力模型的研究,该模型控制了该地区四个不同时期(1840年至2018年)的GDP和贸易成本的变化。结果表明,当代东亚和东南亚的区域贸易强度略低于二战前。所讨论的第二个问题是,与市场决定因素相比,1985年《广场协议》之后关于贸易一体化的贸易协定的相关性。1986年之后的第二个区域进口引力模型在政策和市场指标上进行了回归,表明最近一波亚洲内部贸易的特点是贸易互补性,而区域外国直接投资推动了贸易互补性的发展,而自由贸易协定的效率较低。这一结果通过一项网络分析得到了验证,该分析表明了该地区贸易和投资流动之间的共生关系,在现有的区域贸易协定或谈判中应考虑到这一点,以使亚洲内部贸易超越其历史极限。
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引用次数: 1
The Determinants of Disaggregated Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies: Empirical Evidence from Korea 新兴市场经济体分散资本流入的决定因素——来自韩国的经验证据
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.1.1
Sungcheol Kim, Kyunghun Kim
This paper investigates the key factors in determining disaggregated portfolio investment flows to Korea. I categorize total portfolio investment flows by investor type, such as global banks, investment funds, securities firms, and pension companies. From the structural vector autoregression model with dummy variables, this paper finds that the properties of each institution's capital inflows are quite different. For example, investment funds and securities firm flows are more responsive to stock market index, whereas pension companies are more sensitive to domestic output growth. This implies that the impact of any economic shock on the total foreign capital flows cannot be generalized as the impact on each investment group's capital flow.
本文研究了决定向韩国投资的分类投资流的关键因素。我按投资者类型对总投资组合流量进行分类,如全球银行、投资基金、证券公司和养老公司。从具有伪变量的结构向量自回归模型中,本文发现各机构资本流入的性质有很大差异。例如,投资基金和证券公司流量对股市指数的反应更大,而养老金公司对国内产出增长更敏感。这意味着,任何经济冲击对外国资本流动总额的影响都不能概括为对每个投资集团资本流动的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of the Tax Transition Reform on the Real Exchange Rate through the Trade Openness Channel in Developing Countries 发展中国家税收转轨改革对贸易开放渠道下实际汇率的影响
IF 1.2 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI: 10.11130/jei.2023.38.1.115
S. Gnangnon
International financial institutions have advised developing countries to implement a reform of their tax revenue structure to reduce their dependence on international trade tax revenue, for the benefit of domestic tax revenue. This study examines the effect of this type of tax reform on the real exchange rate through the trade openness channel. It defines tax reform (also known as "tax transition reform") as a process that involves the convergence of developing countries' tax structures toward the tax structure of developed countries (given the weak dependence of the latter's tax structure on international trade tax revenue). The analysis is conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset of 107 countries from 1980-2019, and the two-step system-generalized method of moments approach. The findings show that tax reform causes real exchange rate depreciation, with the magnitude of this effect being higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Furthermore, the real exchange rate depreciation effect of the tax reform is higher in countries with greater trade openness and a tax structure that is less dependent on international trade tax revenue.
国际金融机构建议发展中国家对其税收结构进行改革,以减少对国际贸易税收的依赖,从而有利于国内税收。本研究通过贸易开放渠道考察了这类税收改革对实际汇率的影响。它将税收改革(也称为“税收过渡改革”)定义为一个过程,涉及发展中国家的税收结构向发达国家的税收结构趋同(鉴于后者的税收结构对国际贸易税收的依赖性较弱)。该分析是使用1980-2019年107个国家的不平衡面板数据集和两步系统广义矩方法进行的。研究结果表明,税收改革导致实际汇率贬值,发达国家的这种影响程度高于发展中国家。此外,在贸易开放程度更高、税收结构不太依赖国际贸易税收的国家,税收改革的实际汇率贬值效应更大。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Integration
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