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Understanding Patterns of Change in Group-Based Trajectory Modeling Using Latent Transition Analysis: Valid Approximations of Development or Statistical Artifacts? 利用潜在转变分析理解基于群体的轨迹建模中的变化模式:发展的有效近似值还是统计假象?
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00260-7
Thomas W. Wojciechowski

The objective of this study is to validate how well aggregate change is approximated using group-based trajectory modeling and latent transition analysis. The Pathways to Desistance dataset was analyzed. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify patterns of street time data. Analyses were carried out for the full dataset from start to finish and separate analyses were carried out for the early half and late half of the study period. The data was split and latent transition analysis was used to determine how well trajectory groups in the full-data approximated change observed in the early-data to late-data models. Regression was used to determine the robustness of these change effects with covariates controlled for. A five-group model was identified in the early-data that was very similar to the model identified in the full-data. An eight-group model was identified in the late-data though. The change trajectories characterized by declines in recidivism were predictive of abstaining in the late-data model in a manner consistent with the change predicted by the declines observed in the early-data model. Latent transition analysis may help validate change observed in group-based trajectory modeling. Group-based trajectory modeling may provide more accurate approximation of aggregate change than stability.

本研究的目的是验证基于群体的轨迹建模和潜在转变分析对总体变化的近似程度。研究分析了 "通往脱瘾之路 "数据集。基于群体的轨迹建模用于识别街道时间数据的模式。对整个数据集从开始到结束进行了分析,并对研究期间的前半部分和后半部分进行了单独分析。对数据进行拆分,并使用潜在过渡分析来确定完整数据中的轨迹组与早期数据到晚期数据模型中观察到的变化的近似程度。使用回归法确定这些变化效应在控制协变量后的稳健性。在早期数据中确定了一个五组模型,该模型与在完整数据中确定的模型非常相似。但在后期数据中发现了一个八组模型。在后期数据模型中,以累犯率下降为特征的变化轨迹对戒毒的预测与早期数据模型中观察到的累犯率下降所预测的变化一致。潜在转变分析可能有助于验证在基于群体的轨迹模型中观察到的变化。与稳定性相比,以群体为基础的轨迹模型可以更准确地接近总体变化。
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引用次数: 0
Psychopathic Traits in Childhood and Depression Symptoms in Adolescence: the Mediating Role of Peer Victimization 儿童时期的精神变态特质与青少年时期的抑郁症状:同伴伤害的中介作用
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00259-0
Nathalie M. G. Fontaine, Vincent Bégin, Frank Vitaro, Michel Boivin, Richard E. Tremblay, Sylvana M. Côté

Youth with psychopathic traits are at risk of engaging in physical aggression and being exposed to victimization from peers, which, in turn, is associated with symptoms of depression. The mechanisms underlying the associations between psychopathic traits, peer victimization, and subsequent depression symptoms remain unclear. Using data from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (n = 2,120 youth; 49.1% female) and path analyses, we tested whether peer victimization (at 10–12 years) mediated the associations between psychopathic traits in childhood (at 6–8 years) and depression symptoms in adolescence (at 15–17 years). We also examined if the association between psychopathic traits and peer victimization was moderated by child sex, anxiety symptoms, and physical aggression. Teachers assessed psychopathic traits and peer victimization in childhood. Participants reported on their depression symptoms in adolescence. Findings showed that the association between childhood psychopathic traits and depression symptoms in adolescence was mainly indirect and (partly) operated via peer victimization. This indirect association appeared to be particularly salient for children who manifested low levels of physical aggression. The association between psychopathic traits and later depression symptoms via peer victimization could be less typical of children with high levels of physical aggression. This study highlights the importance of the mediating role of peer victimization and the moderating role of physical aggression when examining the association between psychopathic traits and subsequent depression symptoms.

具有心理变态特质的青少年有参与身体攻击和受到同伴伤害的风险,而这反过来又与抑郁症状有关。心理变态特质、同伴伤害和随后的抑郁症状之间的关联机制仍不清楚。利用《魁北克儿童发展纵向研究》(n = 2,120 名青少年;49.1% 为女性)的数据和路径分析,我们检验了同伴伤害(10-12 岁)是否对童年(6-8 岁)精神变态特质与青春期(15-17 岁)抑郁症状之间的关联起到了中介作用。我们还研究了儿童性别、焦虑症状和身体攻击行为是否会调节精神病态特质与同伴伤害之间的关联。教师评估了儿童时期的精神病态特征和同伴伤害行为。参与者报告了他们在青春期的抑郁症状。研究结果表明,童年时期的变态心理特质与青春期抑郁症状之间的联系主要是间接的,(部分)是通过同伴伤害产生的。这种间接关联似乎对那些身体攻击性较低的儿童尤为突出。精神变态特质与日后抑郁症状之间通过同伴伤害而产生的关联,在具有高水平身体攻击性的儿童中可能并不那么典型。本研究强调了在研究精神变态特质与日后抑郁症状之间的关联时,同伴伤害的中介作用和肢体攻击的调节作用的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Family Reaction as a Developmental Turning Point Among Formerly Incarcerated LGBTQ + Adults 家庭反应是曾被监禁的男女同性恋、双性恋和变性者+成年人的发展转折点
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00258-1
Skyler Morgan

Family reaction to LGBTQ + identity is a complex developmental experience that can lead to various outcomes for LGBTQ + people. Prior scholarship has identified family rejection as a risk factor for poor mental, physical, and social outcomes and family acceptance as a protective factor. However, little scholarship has considered the developmental role of family reaction to LGBTQ + identity on offending and desistance trajectories or explored the experiences with family reaction among LGBTQ + people who have had contact with the criminal legal system. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by centering the role of family reaction to LGBTQ + identity among formerly incarcerated LGBTQ + people. More specifically, this paper draws on original data collected from life history interviews with 25 formerly incarcerated LGBTQ + people. This qualitative work considers (1) their experiences with family reactions, (2) family reaction as a developmental turning point, and (3) navigating the criminal legal system with complex family dynamics. Findings indicated that the majority of the sample encountered some form of rejection (subtle and/or explicit) from their families, which was shaped by other LGBTQ + family members and generational, structural, religious, and political factors. Family reaction functioned as a developmental turning point that impacted offending (rejection) and desistance (acceptance). This work holds important policy implications, including the need for support groups for LGBTQ + people experiencing family rejection inside and outside of criminal legal contexts.

家庭对 LGBTQ + 身份的反应是一种复杂的发展经历,可导致 LGBTQ + 人的各种结果。先前的学术研究发现,家庭排斥是导致不良心理、身体和社会结果的风险因素,而家庭接受则是保护因素。然而,很少有学者考虑过家庭对 LGBTQ + 身份的反应对犯罪和脱罪轨迹的发展作用,也很少有学者探讨与刑事法律系统有过接触的 LGBTQ + 人对家庭反应的体验。本文以曾被监禁的 LGBTQ +人群中家庭对 LGBTQ + 身份反应的作用为中心,填补了这一文献空白。更具体地说,本文利用了从对 25 名曾被监禁的 LGBTQ + 人士的生活史访谈中收集到的原始数据。这项定性研究考虑了(1)他们在家庭反应方面的经历;(2)作为发展转折点的家庭反应;以及(3)在复杂的家庭动态中驾驭刑事法律系统。研究结果表明,样本中的大多数人都遇到了来自家庭的某种形式的拒绝(隐晦的和/或明确的),这种拒绝是由其他 LGBTQ + 家庭成员以及世代、结构、宗教和政治因素形成的。家庭的反应是一个发展转折点,影响着犯罪(拒绝)和逃避(接受)。这项研究具有重要的政策意义,包括需要为在刑事法律环境内外遭遇家庭排斥的 LGBTQ + 人建立支持小组。
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引用次数: 0
A Change in Time Spent on Homework as a Possible Turning Point for Youth with a History of Serious Delinquency: Testing the Intervening Influence of Cognitive and Moral Agency 将家庭作业时间的变化作为有严重犯罪史青少年的可能转折点:测试认知和道德机构的干预影响
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00257-2
Glenn D. Walters

This study tested whether time spent on homework could be considered a turning point for youth with serious prior involvement in delinquency. A sample of 934 youth (809 boys, 125 girls) from the Pathways to Desistance study who attended a community or institutional school during baseline and Wave 1 of the Pathways study served as participants in this study. The results of a four-equation path analysis revealed that while a change in time spent on homework did not have a direct effect on later delinquency, the indirect effect was significant when unsupervised routine activities served as a first-stage mediator and cognitive and moral agency served as second-stage mediators. Hence, spending an increased amount of time on homework was associated with a concurrent decrease in unsupervised routine activities with friends and led to increased levels of cognitive and moral agency in serious delinquent youth, which, in turn, appeared to contribute to heightened levels of future desistance. The key to understanding the turning point identified in this study appears to have been a change in unsupervised routine activities.

本研究测试了花在家庭作业上的时间是否可以被视为曾有严重犯罪前科的青少年的转折点。在 "通往成功之路"(Pathways to Desistance)研究中,有 934 名青少年(809 名男生,125 名女生)参与了这项研究,他们在 "通往成功之路 "研究的基线和第一阶段期间就读于社区学校或机构学校。四方程路径分析的结果表明,虽然花在家庭作业上的时间的变化对后来的犯罪没有直接影响,但当无人监督的日常活动作为第一阶段的中介,认知和道德机构作为第二阶段的中介时,间接影响是显著的。因此,将更多的时间花在家庭作业上与同时减少与朋友的无监督日常活动相关联,并导致严重犯罪青少年的认知和道德代理水平提高,这反过来似乎有助于提高未来的不抵抗水平。要理解本研究中发现的转折点,关键似乎在于无人监督的日常活动的改变。
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引用次数: 0
The Role of Prosocial Behaviour in the Deceleration of Conduct Problem Behaviour 亲社会行为在减缓行为问题行为中的作用
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00256-3
Corrie Williams, Tara Renae McGee, Shannon Walding, Christine E. W. Bond

While conduct problem behaviour initiated in early childhood often escalates in frequency and seriousness through adolescence, a notable deceleration is typically seen by mid-adolescence. It has been hypothesised that prosocial behaviour, characterised by acts like sharing and comforting, may play a role in this deceleration. However, there is a distinct gap in the current literature when it comes to understanding the temporal dynamics between the acceleration of prosocial behaviours and the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour. This study seeks to bridge this gap. Using a General Cross-Lagged Panel Model (GCLM) and data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), we investigated temporal dynamics and sequence of how the acceleration of prosocial behaviour influences the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour between ages 4 and 15. Results indicate that increases in prosocial behaviour facilitate the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour, with increases in prosocial behaviour preceding decreases in conduct problem behaviour. Further, we show a cumulative effect of increases in prosocial behaviour on decreases in conduct problem behaviour over time. This knowledge provides a foundation for understanding how timely prevention and intervention strategies that include the mechanisms for increasing prosocial behaviour may interrupt the conduct problem behaviour trajectories of children and adolescents.

虽然儿童早期开始出现的行为问题往往会在青春期不断升级,其频率和严重程度也会不断增加,但到了青春期中期,通常会出现明显的减速。有一种假设认为,以分享和安慰等行为为特征的亲社会行为可能会在这种减速过程中发挥作用。然而,在了解亲社会行为的加速与行为问题行为的减速之间的时间动态方面,目前的文献存在明显的空白。本研究试图弥补这一空白。我们利用一般交叉滞后面板模型(GCLM)和澳大利亚儿童纵向研究(LSAC)的数据,研究了 4 至 15 岁期间亲社会行为加速如何影响行为问题行为减速的时间动态和顺序。结果表明,亲社会行为的增加会促进行为问题行为的减缓,亲社会行为的增加会先于行为问题行为的减少。此外,我们还发现,随着时间的推移,亲社会行为的增加会对行为问题行为的减少产生累积效应。这些知识为我们理解及时的预防和干预策略(包括增加亲社会行为的机制)如何打断儿童和青少年的行为问题行为轨迹奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Educational Attainment, Crime, and Causality: a Population-wide Sibling-based Design 教育成就、犯罪和因果关系:基于同胞的全人口设计
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00255-4
Steve G. A. van de Weijer, Abigail Novak, Brian B. Boutwell

Criminologists have been interested in educational attainment for decades, a focus the field shares with virtually all other social and psychological sciences. The effects of formal schooling are expected to emerge across a host of developmental outcomes, but they are thought to be of particular relevance when assessing the risk of delinquency and crime. As time spent in formal schooling increases, the future risk of criminal offending is expected to fall precipitously. Associations between education and criminal outcomes have emerged repeatedly in the past, but evidence of causal effects remains in short order by comparison. In this study, register data from the Netherlands is used to examine the effects of educational attainment on offending in both adolescence and early adulthood. Using a population-wide discordant sibling design, our results are consistent with an argument that both education exposure and educational performance exert causal influences on criminal involvement. Until additional work of a similar nature is carried out, however, stronger assertions about the causal effects of education and crime remain premature.

几十年来,犯罪学家一直对受教育程度感兴趣,几乎所有其他社会和心理科学领域都关注这一问题。正规学校教育的影响预计会在一系列发展结果中显现出来,但在评估违法和犯罪风险时,这些影响被认为具有特殊意义。随着正规学校教育时间的增加,预计未来的刑事犯罪风险会急剧下降。教育与犯罪结果之间的关联在过去屡屡出现,但与之相比,因果效应的证据仍然是短板。在本研究中,我们利用荷兰的登记数据来研究教育程度对青少年和成年早期犯罪的影响。我们采用了全人口不和谐同胞设计,结果与教育接触和教育表现对犯罪参与产生因果影响的论点一致。不过,在开展更多类似的工作之前,更有力地断言教育与犯罪的因果关系还为时尚早。
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引用次数: 0
Are All Aspirations and Expectations Alike? A Longitudinal Test of Domain-Specific Effects of Future Beliefs on Offending 所有的愿望和期望都一样吗?未来信念对犯罪的特定领域影响的纵向测试
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00251-8
Heejin Lee, Damon M. Petrich
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引用次数: 0
Paternal Incarceration, Family Relationships, and Adolescents’ Internalizing and Externalizing Problem Behaviors 父亲入狱、家庭关系与青少年的内化和外化问题行为
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00253-6
Simon D. Venema, Marieke Haan, Eric Blaauw, René Veenstra

Little is known about the conditions under which paternal incarceration is harmful to children and the mechanisms that explain this. This study addressed the family relationship context in the associations between paternal incarceration and adolescents’ internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors. Using data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a moderated mediation model was specified where paternal incarceration predicted adolescents’ internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors through family relationship quality, and where the mediating role of family relationship quality was moderated by pre-incarceration family relationship characteristics. Using latent profile analyses, three pre-incarceration family clusters were identified (“Cohesive”; “Fragmented”; “Disharmonious”). Analyses indicated that the association between paternal incarceration and family relationship quality differed across pre-incarceration family clusters and that decreased father-mother relationship quality mediated the negative association between paternal incarceration and adolescents’ internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors among “Cohesive” and “Fragmented”, but not among “Disharmonious” family clusters. The findings suggest that adolescents with more harmonious pre-incarceration family relationships are most vulnerable to the negative consequences of paternal incarceration. The study demonstrates the need to consider the family relationship context to understand the intergenerational consequences of incarceration.

人们对父亲入狱在何种情况下会对子女造成伤害以及造成这种伤害的机制知之甚少。本研究探讨了父亲入狱与青少年内化和外化问题行为之间关系的家庭关系背景。利用 "家庭未来与儿童福祉研究"(Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study)的数据,建立了一个调节中介模型,即父亲入狱通过家庭关系质量来预测青少年的内化和外化问题行为,而家庭关系质量的中介作用受到入狱前家庭关系特征的调节。通过潜在特征分析,确定了三个入狱前家庭群组("团结"、"分裂 "和 "不和谐")。分析表明,父亲入狱与家庭关系质量之间的关系在不同的入狱前家庭群组中存在差异,在 "团结 "和 "破碎 "家庭群组中,父亲与母亲关系质量的下降能够调节父亲入狱与青少年内化和外化问题行为之间的负相关,而在 "不和谐 "家庭群组中则不能。研究结果表明,入狱前家庭关系较为和谐的青少年最容易受到父亲入狱的负面影响。这项研究表明,有必要考虑家庭关系的背景,以了解监禁的代际后果。
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引用次数: 0
Unraveling the Sequences of Risk Factors Underlying the Development of Criminal Behavior 揭示犯罪行为发展的风险因素序列
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00254-5
Miguel Basto-Pereira, David P. Farrington, Laura Maciel
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引用次数: 0
The Anticipatory, Short-Term, and Long-Term Effects of Parental Separation and Parental Death on Adolescent Delinquency 父母离异和父母死亡对青少年犯罪的预期、短期和长期影响
IF 1.9 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1007/s40865-024-00252-7
J. Kroese, W. Bernasco, A. Liefbroer, Jan Rouwendal
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology
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