This article examines the impact of the macroenvironment on enterprises in euro-area countries over the period 2006–2020. Our study builds on important works and theories in the field of business, including the work of Kar and Özsahin. We employ the Panel Least Squares method to estimate the coefficient of selected variables. We identify political, institutional (government effectiveness index, regulatory quality index, rule of law, market capitalization of company, control of corruption, political stability and absence of violence) and financial (financial development index, gross domestic product, inflation rate, unemployment rate, public debt) determinants that can have an effect on entrepreneurship. The article aims to fill a gap in the existing literature by providing new insights from the Eurozone and updated data that were not included in previous literature reviews and studies. In this way, we contribute to expanding knowledge about the relationship between macroeconomic factors and entrepreneurial activities in this specific geographical area, considering the lack of current analyses. According to our results, there is a positive statistically significant relationship between entrepreneurship and gross domestic product per capita, regulatory quality index, and market capitalization of the company and a negative statistically significant relationship between entrepreneurship and rule of law, and public debt.
{"title":"Entrepreneurship Dynamics: Assessing the Role of Macroeconomic Variables on New Business Density in Euro Area","authors":"Lenka Vyrostková, Jaroslava Kádárová","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040139","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the impact of the macroenvironment on enterprises in euro-area countries over the period 2006–2020. Our study builds on important works and theories in the field of business, including the work of Kar and Özsahin. We employ the Panel Least Squares method to estimate the coefficient of selected variables. We identify political, institutional (government effectiveness index, regulatory quality index, rule of law, market capitalization of company, control of corruption, political stability and absence of violence) and financial (financial development index, gross domestic product, inflation rate, unemployment rate, public debt) determinants that can have an effect on entrepreneurship. The article aims to fill a gap in the existing literature by providing new insights from the Eurozone and updated data that were not included in previous literature reviews and studies. In this way, we contribute to expanding knowledge about the relationship between macroeconomic factors and entrepreneurial activities in this specific geographical area, considering the lack of current analyses. According to our results, there is a positive statistically significant relationship between entrepreneurship and gross domestic product per capita, regulatory quality index, and market capitalization of the company and a negative statistically significant relationship between entrepreneurship and rule of law, and public debt.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138505338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Osvaldo Massicame, Helena Coelho Inácio, Maria Anunciação Bastos
The function of the external audit, largely as a result of the scandals and financial crises that have occurred, has been the subject of debate and criticism. This aspect has fostered discussions around the Audit Expectation Gap, which, in short, is understood as the differences in expectations between the audit’s results and what is expected from it. In this context, the present study aimed to evaluate the existence of the Audit Expectation Gap in the external audit of banks in Mozambique. For this purpose, auditors, regulators/supervisors, managers and financial staff from banks and companies were surveyed. The results showed statistically significant differences in the opinions of respondents regarding matters related to the scope and objective of the audit, materiality and risk, and different aspects of responsibility. Thus, evidence was obtained that, in addition to reviewing audit regulations for Mozambican credit institutions and financial companies, there is a need for clarification of matters such as the level of security in external audits (which cannot be absolute); the responsibilities of management and auditors in areas such as assessing and reporting compliance with the ratios and prudential limits imposed by the Bank of Mozambique; assessing the suitability of risk management at the bank; and the prevention, detection and reporting of fraud.
{"title":"Audit Expectation Gap in the External Audit of Banks in Mozambique","authors":"Osvaldo Massicame, Helena Coelho Inácio, Maria Anunciação Bastos","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040138","url":null,"abstract":"The function of the external audit, largely as a result of the scandals and financial crises that have occurred, has been the subject of debate and criticism. This aspect has fostered discussions around the Audit Expectation Gap, which, in short, is understood as the differences in expectations between the audit’s results and what is expected from it. In this context, the present study aimed to evaluate the existence of the Audit Expectation Gap in the external audit of banks in Mozambique. For this purpose, auditors, regulators/supervisors, managers and financial staff from banks and companies were surveyed. The results showed statistically significant differences in the opinions of respondents regarding matters related to the scope and objective of the audit, materiality and risk, and different aspects of responsibility. Thus, evidence was obtained that, in addition to reviewing audit regulations for Mozambican credit institutions and financial companies, there is a need for clarification of matters such as the level of security in external audits (which cannot be absolute); the responsibilities of management and auditors in areas such as assessing and reporting compliance with the ratios and prudential limits imposed by the Bank of Mozambique; assessing the suitability of risk management at the bank; and the prevention, detection and reporting of fraud.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138505341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In order to help enterprises to achieve high-quality development and improve the capital market regulatory policies by supporting with more factual basis from China, this paper conducts research on clarifying impact mechanism of digital transformation on M&A efficiency of listed companies. Taking the mergers and acquisitions of listed companies from 2007 to 2021 as a research sample, the influence mechanism of the digital transformation degree of companies on their M&A efficiency was studied. The research results show that the digital transformation of listed companies will improve their M&A efficiency. Digital transformation will reduce the degree of mispricing stocks of M&A companies, curb conflicts between managers and agents of M&A companies, and improve their M&A efficiency. Further research finds that the promotion effect of digital transformation on M&A efficiency is more significant in non-state-owned companies, with a higher degree of financing constraint and high analyst attention. In the future, regulatory authorities should actively promote the digital transformation of listed companies, curb mispricing and management agency problems in the capital market with digital governance, and improve the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions in the capital market. This paper not only provides a more factual basis on concrete case from China but also enriches the related empirical analysis on corporate digital transformation and M&A efficiency.
{"title":"Corporate Digital Transformation and M&A Efficiency: Evidence Based on Chinese Listed Companies","authors":"Gui Ren, Zhenxian Huo, Jingjing Wang, Xihe Liu","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040137","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040137","url":null,"abstract":"In order to help enterprises to achieve high-quality development and improve the capital market regulatory policies by supporting with more factual basis from China, this paper conducts research on clarifying impact mechanism of digital transformation on M&A efficiency of listed companies. Taking the mergers and acquisitions of listed companies from 2007 to 2021 as a research sample, the influence mechanism of the digital transformation degree of companies on their M&A efficiency was studied. The research results show that the digital transformation of listed companies will improve their M&A efficiency. Digital transformation will reduce the degree of mispricing stocks of M&A companies, curb conflicts between managers and agents of M&A companies, and improve their M&A efficiency. Further research finds that the promotion effect of digital transformation on M&A efficiency is more significant in non-state-owned companies, with a higher degree of financing constraint and high analyst attention. In the future, regulatory authorities should actively promote the digital transformation of listed companies, curb mispricing and management agency problems in the capital market with digital governance, and improve the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions in the capital market. This paper not only provides a more factual basis on concrete case from China but also enriches the related empirical analysis on corporate digital transformation and M&A efficiency.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134901313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Davinder K. Malhotra, Tim Mooney, Raymond Poteau, Philip Russel
In this study, we provide a comprehensive examination of the performance of financial (specialty sector financial) mutual funds over a 23-year period, a much longer time frame than what has been analyzed in previous literature. To fully understand the performance of these mutual funds, we consider multiple factors, including risk-adjusted performance, both unconditional and conditional multifactor analysis, and market timing and selectivity. Financial mutual funds have higher risk-adjusted performance than the overall market and financial sector benchmarks. However, fund alphas are not different from zero, and managers do not exhibit market timing or security selection abilities. Our analysis not only includes the overall performance of these mutual funds, but we also delve into sub-samples before and after the 2008 financial crisis and during the recent Coronavirus pandemic.
{"title":"Assessing the Performance and Risk-Adjusted Returns of Financial Mutual Funds","authors":"Davinder K. Malhotra, Tim Mooney, Raymond Poteau, Philip Russel","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040136","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we provide a comprehensive examination of the performance of financial (specialty sector financial) mutual funds over a 23-year period, a much longer time frame than what has been analyzed in previous literature. To fully understand the performance of these mutual funds, we consider multiple factors, including risk-adjusted performance, both unconditional and conditional multifactor analysis, and market timing and selectivity. Financial mutual funds have higher risk-adjusted performance than the overall market and financial sector benchmarks. However, fund alphas are not different from zero, and managers do not exhibit market timing or security selection abilities. Our analysis not only includes the overall performance of these mutual funds, but we also delve into sub-samples before and after the 2008 financial crisis and during the recent Coronavirus pandemic.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135292378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Having effective and efficient financing is one of the most critical steps in accelerating public infrastructure development, including toll roads. This study aims to identify critical success factors (CSFs) for implementing toll infrastructure financing in Indonesia. Thirty-three CSFs have been identified from the literature review. A Delphi survey was conducted involving a panel of experts in the infrastructure industry. Based on the survey, it is known that the internal rate of return, affordability, investment decisions, commercial banks, financing costs, interest rate risk, control of cash flow, contract scope, and principles of risk transfer are important factors for implementing toll infrastructure financing in Indonesia. This study fills research gaps by developing a CSF model for successful toll road infrastructure financing in Indonesian PPPs, considering private perspectives and aiming to provide insights for investors and enhance understanding of country profiles in developing countries. The focus on toll road implementation in Indonesia contributes to a comprehensive understanding of CSFs for PPPs in the country.
{"title":"Implementing Toll Road Infrastructure Financing in Indonesia: Critical Success Factors from the Perspective of Toll Road Companies","authors":"Muhammad Fauzan, Heri Kuswanto, Christiono Utomo","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040135","url":null,"abstract":"Having effective and efficient financing is one of the most critical steps in accelerating public infrastructure development, including toll roads. This study aims to identify critical success factors (CSFs) for implementing toll infrastructure financing in Indonesia. Thirty-three CSFs have been identified from the literature review. A Delphi survey was conducted involving a panel of experts in the infrastructure industry. Based on the survey, it is known that the internal rate of return, affordability, investment decisions, commercial banks, financing costs, interest rate risk, control of cash flow, contract scope, and principles of risk transfer are important factors for implementing toll infrastructure financing in Indonesia. This study fills research gaps by developing a CSF model for successful toll road infrastructure financing in Indonesian PPPs, considering private perspectives and aiming to provide insights for investors and enhance understanding of country profiles in developing countries. The focus on toll road implementation in Indonesia contributes to a comprehensive understanding of CSFs for PPPs in the country.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135290641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kim Long Tran, Hoang Anh Le, Cap Phu Lieu, Duc Trung Nguyen
Financial bubble prediction has been a significant area of interest in empirical finance, garnering substantial attention in the literature. This study aims to detect and forecast financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market from 2001 to 2021. The PSY procedure, which involves a right-tailed unit root test to identify the existence of financial bubbles, was employed to achieve this goal. Machine learning algorithms were then utilized to predict real-time financial bubble events. The results revealed the presence of financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market during 2006–2007 and 2017–2018. Additionally, the empirical evidence supported the superior performance of the random forest and artificial neural network algorithms over traditional statistical methods in predicting financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market.
{"title":"Machine Learning to Forecast Financial Bubbles in Stock Markets: Evidence from Vietnam","authors":"Kim Long Tran, Hoang Anh Le, Cap Phu Lieu, Duc Trung Nguyen","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040133","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040133","url":null,"abstract":"Financial bubble prediction has been a significant area of interest in empirical finance, garnering substantial attention in the literature. This study aims to detect and forecast financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market from 2001 to 2021. The PSY procedure, which involves a right-tailed unit root test to identify the existence of financial bubbles, was employed to achieve this goal. Machine learning algorithms were then utilized to predict real-time financial bubble events. The results revealed the presence of financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market during 2006–2007 and 2017–2018. Additionally, the empirical evidence supported the superior performance of the random forest and artificial neural network algorithms over traditional statistical methods in predicting financial bubbles in the Vietnamese stock market.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135392468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Inflation in 2021 and 2022 grew much faster than the Federal Reserve expected. The Fed downplayed inflation in 2021 and then increased the federal funds rate by 500 basis points between March 2022 and May 2023. This paper investigates how this unprecedented tightening has impacted the stock market. To do so, it estimates a fully specified multi-factor model that measures the exposure of 53 assets to monetary policy surprises over the 1994 to 2019 period. It then uses the monetary policy betas to gauge investors’ beliefs about monetary policy between 2020 and 2023. The results indicate that changing perceptions about monetary policy multiplied uncertainty and stock market volatility.
{"title":"The Impact of Monetary Policy on the U.S. Stock Market since the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Willem Thorbecke","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040134","url":null,"abstract":"Inflation in 2021 and 2022 grew much faster than the Federal Reserve expected. The Fed downplayed inflation in 2021 and then increased the federal funds rate by 500 basis points between March 2022 and May 2023. This paper investigates how this unprecedented tightening has impacted the stock market. To do so, it estimates a fully specified multi-factor model that measures the exposure of 53 assets to monetary policy surprises over the 1994 to 2019 period. It then uses the monetary policy betas to gauge investors’ beliefs about monetary policy between 2020 and 2023. The results indicate that changing perceptions about monetary policy multiplied uncertainty and stock market volatility.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135392323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Diana Escandon-Barbosa, Jairo Salas-Paramo, José Luis Duque
This research aims to analyze the triple moderating effect of the board of directors in the country culture of a firm and its influence on the relationship between organizational innovation and organizational learning in corporate sustainability. A survey of 400 exporting companies of different commercial products from Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia was used to carry out this research. We used the structural equations model to explore the analysis of the causal and moderation relationships between the variables under study. As a result, it was found that the influence of the board of directors of a firm is essential for innovation processes because they drive their results to corporate sustainability. This last approach is due to the strategic approach adopted by large companies. In the case of SMEs, it was not possible to demonstrate that the board of directors has such a degree of influence. In the case of the moderating effect of the board of directors on the country’s culture, it was possible to observe that the board of directors becomes a factor in the firm’s performance despite its geographical location, which determines the influence of culture on its operation in corporations such as SMEs.
{"title":"Cultural Influence on Corporate Sustainability: A Board of Directors Perspective","authors":"Diana Escandon-Barbosa, Jairo Salas-Paramo, José Luis Duque","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040132","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to analyze the triple moderating effect of the board of directors in the country culture of a firm and its influence on the relationship between organizational innovation and organizational learning in corporate sustainability. A survey of 400 exporting companies of different commercial products from Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia was used to carry out this research. We used the structural equations model to explore the analysis of the causal and moderation relationships between the variables under study. As a result, it was found that the influence of the board of directors of a firm is essential for innovation processes because they drive their results to corporate sustainability. This last approach is due to the strategic approach adopted by large companies. In the case of SMEs, it was not possible to demonstrate that the board of directors has such a degree of influence. In the case of the moderating effect of the board of directors on the country’s culture, it was possible to observe that the board of directors becomes a factor in the firm’s performance despite its geographical location, which determines the influence of culture on its operation in corporations such as SMEs.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135589727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates how a company’s internal control team affects their investment decision making, considering the level of industry competition within the South Korean capital market. A model obtained from the literature was employed to test the hypothesis. When industry competition is low, the quantitative adequacy of internal control staff increases the likelihood of investment when the risk of underinvestment is high, and it decreases the likelihood of investment when the risk of overinvestment is high. However, this is not the case when industry competition is fierce. Qualitative adequacy of internal control staff—expertise—has a significant effect on investment decision making when industry competition is high, but has no significant effect when industry competition is low. These results suggest that investors should consider the quantitative and qualitative adequacy of internal control staff along with the level of industry competition when evaluating the investment efficiency of a company.
{"title":"The Differential Effects of Internal Control Teams on Investment Decision Making Based on Industry Competition","authors":"Hyunjung Choi","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040131","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates how a company’s internal control team affects their investment decision making, considering the level of industry competition within the South Korean capital market. A model obtained from the literature was employed to test the hypothesis. When industry competition is low, the quantitative adequacy of internal control staff increases the likelihood of investment when the risk of underinvestment is high, and it decreases the likelihood of investment when the risk of overinvestment is high. However, this is not the case when industry competition is fierce. Qualitative adequacy of internal control staff—expertise—has a significant effect on investment decision making when industry competition is high, but has no significant effect when industry competition is low. These results suggest that investors should consider the quantitative and qualitative adequacy of internal control staff along with the level of industry competition when evaluating the investment efficiency of a company.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135873782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Financial market data are abundant with outliers, and the search for an appropriate extreme value theory (EVT) approach to apply is an endless debate in the statistics of extremes research. This paper uses EVT methods to model the five-year daily all-share total return index (ALSTRI) and the daily United States dollar (USD) against the South African rand (ZAR) exchange rate of the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The study compares the block maxima approach and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach in terms of their ability to model financial market data. The 100-year return levels for the block maxima approach were found to be almost equal to the maximum observations of the financial markets of 10,860 and R18.99 for the ALSTRI and the USD–ZAR, respectively. For the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach, the results show that the ALSTRI and the USD–ZAR exchange rate will surpass 17,501.63 and R23.72, respectively, at least once in 100 years. The findings in this study reveal a clear distinction between block maxima and POT return level estimates. The POT approach return level estimates were comparably higher than the block maxima estimates. The study further revealed that the blended generalised extreme value (bGEVD) is more suitable for relatively short-term forecasting, since it cuts off at the 50-year return level. Therefore, this study will add value to the literature and knowledge of statistics and econometrics. In the future, more studies on bGEVD, vine copulas, and the r-largest-order bGEVD can be conducted in the financial markets.
{"title":"Extreme Value Theory Modelling of the Behaviour of Johannesburg Stock Exchange Financial Market Data","authors":"Maashele Kholofelo Metwane, Daniel Maposa","doi":"10.3390/ijfs11040130","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs11040130","url":null,"abstract":"Financial market data are abundant with outliers, and the search for an appropriate extreme value theory (EVT) approach to apply is an endless debate in the statistics of extremes research. This paper uses EVT methods to model the five-year daily all-share total return index (ALSTRI) and the daily United States dollar (USD) against the South African rand (ZAR) exchange rate of the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The study compares the block maxima approach and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach in terms of their ability to model financial market data. The 100-year return levels for the block maxima approach were found to be almost equal to the maximum observations of the financial markets of 10,860 and R18.99 for the ALSTRI and the USD–ZAR, respectively. For the peaks-over-threshold (POT) approach, the results show that the ALSTRI and the USD–ZAR exchange rate will surpass 17,501.63 and R23.72, respectively, at least once in 100 years. The findings in this study reveal a clear distinction between block maxima and POT return level estimates. The POT approach return level estimates were comparably higher than the block maxima estimates. The study further revealed that the blended generalised extreme value (bGEVD) is more suitable for relatively short-term forecasting, since it cuts off at the 50-year return level. Therefore, this study will add value to the literature and knowledge of statistics and econometrics. In the future, more studies on bGEVD, vine copulas, and the r-largest-order bGEVD can be conducted in the financial markets.","PeriodicalId":45794,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Financial Studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135868068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：