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Decision Rules for Corporate Investment 企业投资决策规则
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010024
Reinier de Adelhart Toorop, Dirk Schoenmaker, Willem Schramade
We investigate the decision rules for corporate investment by designing a company value frontier. This company value frontier allows for balancing the financial value and social and environmental impacts. This article develops novel value concepts—ranging from shareholder value to shareholder welfare and integrated value—resulting in varying preferences for social and environmental impacts or values. Next, these preferences are incorporated in investment decision rules. The traditional net present value (NPV) rule optimises only the financial value. We propose a new integrated present value (IPV) decision rule that includes a preference for social and environmental values without neglecting the financial value. By applying the new IPV rule, responsible companies are able to achieve more sustainable outcomes.
我们通过设计公司价值边界来研究公司投资的决策规则。该公司价值前沿可以平衡财务价值与社会和环境影响。本文提出了新颖的价值概念--从股东价值到股东福利和综合价值,从而产生了对社会和环境影响或价值的不同偏好。然后,将这些偏好纳入投资决策规则。传统的净现值(NPV)规则只优化财务价值。我们提出了一种新的综合现值(IPV)决策规则,其中包括对社会和环境价值的偏好,同时不忽略财务价值。通过应用新的 IPV 规则,负责任的公司能够实现更可持续的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting Healthcare Mutual Fund Performance Using Deep Learning and Linear Regression 利用深度学习和线性回归预测医疗保健共同基金的表现
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010023
Anuwat Boonprasope, Korrakot Yaibuathet Tippayawong
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the healthcare sector has emerged as a resilient and profitable domain amidst market fluctuations. Consequently, investing in healthcare securities, particularly through mutual funds, has gained traction. Existing research on predicting future prices of healthcare securities has been predominantly reliant on historical trading data, limiting predictive accuracy and scope. This study aims to overcome these constraints by integrating a diverse set of twelve external factors spanning economic, industrial, and company-specific domains to enhance predictive models. Employing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) techniques, the study evaluates the effectiveness of this multifaceted approach. Results indicate that incorporating various influencing factors beyond historical data significantly improves price prediction accuracy. Moreover, the utilization of LSTM alongside this comprehensive dataset yields comparable predictive outcomes to those obtained solely from historical data. Thus, this study highlights the potential of leveraging diverse external factors for more robust forecasting of mutual fund prices within the healthcare sector.
继 COVID-19 大流行之后,医疗保健行业在市场波动中已成为一个有弹性且有利可图的领域。因此,投资医疗保健证券,特别是通过共同基金进行投资,已经获得了越来越多的关注。现有的医疗保健证券未来价格预测研究主要依赖于历史交易数据,从而限制了预测的准确性和范围。本研究旨在通过整合跨越经济、行业和公司特定领域的十二种外部因素来增强预测模型,从而克服这些限制。研究采用了长短期记忆(LSTM)和多元线性回归(MLR)技术,评估了这种多元方法的有效性。结果表明,将历史数据之外的各种影响因素纳入其中可显著提高价格预测的准确性。此外,将 LSTM 与这一综合数据集结合使用,可获得与仅从历史数据获得的预测结果相当的预测结果。因此,本研究强调了利用各种外部因素更稳健地预测医疗保健行业共同基金价格的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting the Effect of Dividend Policy on Firm Performance and Value: Empirical Evidence from the Korean Market 重新审视股利政策对公司业绩和价值的影响:韩国市场的经验证据
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010022
Okechukwu Enyeribe Njoku, Younghwan Lee
This study investigates the relationship between dividend policy, firm performance, and value within the Korean market, taking into account the unique context of Chaebol ownership structures. Utilizing a robust dataset of 5478 observations from the Korean Composite Stock Price Index, our empirical analysis employs advanced regression models, revealing distinctive effects of various dividend policy measures through the lenses of interest alignment and managerial entrenchment hypotheses. Surprisingly, while cash dividend payments exhibit a robust positive impact on Tobin’s Q and market-to-book ratios, suggesting an overall positive link with market valuations, a closer inspection reveals divergent impacts for Chaebol and non-Chaebol firms. In Chaebol entities, dividend policy proxies consistently demonstrate positive effects on performance metrics, aligning with the interest alignment hypothesis and highlighting strategic signaling efforts. Conversely, non-Chaebol firms exhibit intriguingly negative impacts, supporting the managerial entrenchment hypothesis and implying potential challenges to market value. Firms should prioritize transparent communication on dividend policies for improved investor decision making and enhanced corporate governance in the dynamic Korean market.
本研究考虑到韩国财阀所有权结构的独特背景,调查了韩国市场上股利政策、公司业绩和价值之间的关系。我们的实证分析使用了先进的回归模型,利用韩国综合股价指数的 5478 个观测数据集,从利益一致和管理强化假说的角度揭示了各种股利政策措施的独特效果。令人惊讶的是,虽然现金股利支付对托宾 Q 值和市净率有稳健的正向影响,表明股利政策与市场估值有整体的正向联系,但仔细观察就会发现,股利政策对财阀企业和非财阀企业的影响是不同的。在财阀企业中,股利政策代用指标始终对业绩指标产生积极影响,这与利益一致假说相吻合,并凸显了企业的战略信号努力。相反,非财阀企业则表现出令人费解的负面影响,这支持了管理层固化假说,并意味着市场价值面临潜在挑战。在充满活力的韩国市场上,企业应优先考虑股利政策的透明沟通,以改善投资者决策并加强公司治理。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Energy Mutual Funds: Performance, Risks, and Managerial Skills 评估能源共同基金:绩效、风险和管理技能
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010020
Davinder Malhotra, Srinivas Nippani
This study investigates the risk-adjusted performance of energy equity mutual funds across a 23-year period, employing the Cumulative Wealth Index (CWI) to gauge their long-term performance relative to benchmark indices. Despite inherent volatility due to the energy sector’s cyclical nature, these funds consistently outperformed benchmarks based on monthly returns, showcasing resilience amid market fluctuations. However, challenges emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, with notable improvements post-vaccination. Utilizing a multi-factor model, the research highlights the interconnectivity of energy equity mutual funds with broader market movements and systemic factors. Despite their primary focus on the energy sector, these funds exhibit sensitivity to larger market trends, rendering them susceptible to market dynamics. Additionally, an assessment of portfolio manager expertise reveals some proficiency in security selection post-vaccinations against COVID-19.
本研究采用累积财富指数(CWI)来衡量能源股票共同基金相对于基准指数的长期表现,调查了能源股票共同基金在 23 年间经风险调整后的表现。尽管能源行业的周期性特性导致了固有的波动性,但根据月度回报率计算,这些基金的表现始终优于基准指数,在市场波动中展现了抗跌性。然而,在 COVID-19 大流行期间出现了挑战,但在接种疫苗后情况有了明显改善。研究利用多因素模型,强调了能源股票共同基金与更广泛的市场走势和系统性因素之间的相互关联性。尽管这些基金主要关注能源行业,但它们对更大的市场趋势表现出敏感性,使其容易受到市场动态的影响。此外,对投资组合经理专业知识的评估显示,在接种 COVID-19 疫苗后,他们在证券选择方面具有一定的能力。
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引用次数: 0
The Use of Economic Indicators as Early Signals of Stock Market Progress: Perspectives from Market Potential Index 使用经济指标作为股市进展的早期信号:来自市场潜力指数的观点
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010021
Tarek Eldomiaty, Islam Azzam, Mostafa Fouad, Yasmeen Said
The progress of financial markets depends on the way world investors foresee the market potential of the country of choice. Countries that are associated with favorable economic incentives are able to motivate investments in their respective stock markets. The objective of this paper is to examine the role of the many economic components which constitute the Market Potential Index in enhancing stock market progress. The methodology goes through testing and estimation. The tests include linearity versus nonlinearity (RESET), normality, and cointegration. The estimation includes cointegration regression and discriminant analysis to distinguish between high and low stock market progress. This study examines unbalanced panel data that covers the years 1996–2022 for 54 countries where a stock market exists. The results show the following: (a) increases in people’s expenditure result in decreases in consumption of investment in financial securities; (b) the investments in infrastructure technology is positively associated with stock market progress; (c) the positive effect of economic freedom indicates that further adaptive trading regulations are beneficial to stock market progress; (d) increases in imports consume large proportions of people’s income, coming at the expense of investment in financial securities; (e) stock markets that are associated with high country risk are characterized by a positive risk–return tradeoff, i.e., a high risk premium; (f) the stock markets listed in the MPI can reach high progress by improving three indicators, namely commercial infrastructure, market receptivity, and country risk. This paper offers a thorough and unique examination of the institutional arrangements and stock market progress. The paper offers a guide to policy makers about how economic institutional arrangements can be promoted in order to reach high stock market progress.
金融市场的发展取决于世界投资者对所选国家市场潜力的预测。与有利的经济激励措施相关联的国家能够激励对其各自股票市场的投资。本文旨在研究构成市场潜力指数的多种经济成分在促进股市发展方面的作用。研究方法包括测试和估算。测试包括线性与非线性(RESET)、正态性和协整性。估计包括协整回归和判别分析,以区分股票市场的高进步和低进步。本研究考察了 54 个有股票市场的国家 1996-2022 年的非平衡面板数据。研究结果表明(a) 人民支出的增加导致金融证券投资消费的减少;(b) 基础设施技术投资与股市进步呈正相关;(c) 经济自由度的正效应表明,进一步调整交易规则有利于股市进步;(d) 进口的增加消耗了人民收入的很大一部分,以牺牲金融证券投资为代价;(e) 与高国家风险相关联的股市具有正风险-收益权衡的特征,即高风险溢价;(f) 与低国家风险相关联的股市具有正风险-收益权衡的特征,即低风险溢价;(g) 与高国家风险相关联的股市具有正风险-收益权衡的特征,即高风险溢价;(h) 与高国家风险相关联的股市具有正风险-收益权衡的特征,即高风险溢价、高风险溢价;(f) 列入 MPI 的股票市场可以通过改善三个指标,即商业基础设施、市场接受度和国家风险,实现高进步。本文对制度安排与股市进步进行了深入而独特的研究。本文为政策制定者提供了如何促进经济制度安排以实现股市高进步的指南。
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引用次数: 0
Synthetic Central Bank Digital Currencies and Systemic Liquidity Risks 合成中央银行数字货币与系统性流动性风险
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-18 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010019
John E. Marthinsen, Steven R. Gordon
The failure of major banks in 2023, such as Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, and Credit Suisse, points to the continuing need for financial institutions to price liquidity risk properly and for financial systems to find alternative sources of liquidity in times of dire need. Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), fiat-backed stablecoins (fsCOINs), and synthetic central bank digital currencies (sCBDCs) could offer improvements, but each comes with its own set of problems and conditions. Prior research reaches conflicting conclusions about the effect that each of these three financial assets has on systemic bank liquidity and fails to adequately address their net benefits relative to each other. This paper addresses these issues, including those connected to financial disintermediation, bank runs, outsourcing central bank activities, financial interoperability, cash equivalents, maturity transformation, required reserves, and changes in nations’ monetary bases. After addressing the strengths and weaknesses of fsCOINs and CBDCs, we conclude that sCBDCs provide the most significant net liquidity benefits when risks and returns are considered.
2023 年硅谷银行 (SVB)、Signature 银行、第一共和银行和瑞士信贷等大型银行的倒闭表明,金融机构仍然需要对流动性风险进行适当定价,金融系统也需要在急需时找到替代的流动性来源。央行数字货币(CBDCs)、法币支持的稳定币(fsCOINs)和合成央行数字货币(sCBDCs)可以提供改进,但每种货币都有自己的问题和条件。关于这三种金融资产各自对系统银行流动性的影响,先前的研究得出了相互矛盾的结论,也未能充分讨论它们相对于彼此的净收益。本文探讨了这些问题,包括与金融脱媒、银行挤兑、中央银行活动外包、金融互操作性、现金等价物、期限转换、必要储备以及国家货币基础变化相关的问题。在讨论了金融合作信息网和中央银行发展中心的优缺点之后,我们得出结论:考虑到风险和收益,中央银行发展中心能提供最显著的净流动性收益。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Dynamics of Profitability–Liquidity Relations in Crisis, Pre-Crisis and Post-Crisis 探索危机中、危机前和危机后盈利能力与流动性关系的动态变化
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-10 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010016
Piotr Ratajczak, Dawid Szutowski, Jarosław Nowicki
The aim of this study is to verify the stability of the profitability–liquidity relationship over time, as well as to determine this relationship in terms of its level and structure. In this context, three main research questions were formulated. First, is the profitability–liquidity relationship stable in times of crisis? Second, what is the profitability of companies with high and low liquidity? Third, what is the liquidity of companies with high and low profitability? This study uses a self-organizing map (SOM), a data visualization technique that is a type of artificial neural network trained in an unsupervised manner. A dataset covering the period from 2019 to 2021, consisting of 300 Polish companies from the wholesale and retail sectors, was used. The main results of this study indicate that: (1) companies with a balanced profitability–liquidity relationship in the pre-crisis period (2019) maintained this relationship in the crisis (2020) and post-crisis periods (2021); (2) companies in the clusters with the relatively highest and lowest profitability have the relatively lowest and moderate liquidity both before and after the crisis period; (3) the majority of companies during non-crisis periods demonstrate that profitability is not reliant on liquidity, suggesting an absence of a clear relationship; (4) in the post-crisis period, companies with the relatively lowest operating cash flow margin (OCFM) exhibited the relatively highest net profit margin (NPM) and other profitability ratios, as opposed to the pre-crisis and crisis periods. This study fills the gap resulting from the incomplete—most of all static—understanding of the relationship between profitability and liquidity. Moreover, this study employs a self-organizing map (SOM) which has not been used in the literature regarding the research area undertaken.
本研究的目的是验证利润率-流动性关系在一段时间内的稳定性,并确定这种关系的水平和结构。为此,提出了三个主要研究问题。第一,盈利能力与流动性之间的关系在危机时期是否稳定?第二,高流动性和低流动性公司的盈利能力如何?第三,高盈利能力和低盈利能力公司的流动性如何?本研究使用了自组织图(SOM),这是一种数据可视化技术,是一种以无监督方式训练的人工神经网络。使用的数据集涵盖 2019 年至 2021 年,由 300 家波兰批发和零售业公司组成。研究的主要结果表明(1) 在危机前(2019 年)盈利能力与流动性关系平衡的公司在危机期间(2020 年)和危机后(2021 年)保持了这种关系;(2) 盈利能力相对最高和最低的群组中的公司在危机期间前后的流动性相对最低和适中;(3) 在非危机时期,大多数公司的盈利能力并不依赖于流动性,这表明两者之间不存在明显的关系;(4) 在危机后时期,与危机前和危机时期相比,经营现金流利润率(OCFM)相对最低的公司的净利润率(NPM)和其他盈利比率相对最高。本研究填补了对盈利能力与流动性之间关系的不完整--最重要的是静态--理解所造成的空白。此外,本研究还采用了自组织图(SOM),这在有关本研究领域的文献中尚未使用过。
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引用次数: 0
Velocity of Money and Productivity Growth: Explaining the 2% Inflation Target in the U.S. (1959–2007) 货币速度与生产力增长:解释美国 2% 的通胀目标(1959-2007 年)
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010015
Christophe Faugere
This article provides a macro-foundation for why the specific value of 2% is a valid inflation target. The approach postulates that innovations generate transactional cost savings by comparison to barter. The optimal velocity of money is derived as a function of productivity growth and of long-term and short-term interest rates, with coefficients reflecting the leverage ratio of depository institutions and the degree of bias in technical progress in the transaction technology. The model is tested for the U.S. (for aggregates M1, M1RS, and M1S) over the period 1959–2007. Setting the inflation target rate equal to the growth rate of velocity leads to an inflation rate near 2% and is akin to pursuing the Friedman k-% rule. This rule provides flexibility to prevent deflation. A long-term Taylor-type rule is derived. A robustness test is also conducted by extending the sample period up to 2023, covering sustained episodes of unconventional U.S. monetary policy.
本文提供了一个宏观基础,说明为什么 2% 的具体数值是一个有效的通胀目标。该方法假定,与易货贸易相比,创新可以节省交易成本。最优货币流通速度是生产率增长、长期利率和短期利率的函数,其系数反映了存款机构的杠杆比率和交易技术进步的偏差程度。该模型在 1959-2007 年期间对美国(M1、M1RS 和 M1S 的总量)进行了测试。设定通胀目标率等于速度增长率会导致通胀率接近 2%,类似于弗里德曼的 k%规则。这一规则为防止通货紧缩提供了灵活性。推导出一个长期泰勒型规则。此外,还通过将样本期延长至 2023 年进行了稳健性测试,涵盖了美国非常规货币政策的持续发作。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of the COVID-19 Market Turmoil on Investor Behavior: A Panel VAR Study of Bank Stocks in Borsa Istanbul COVID-19 市场动荡对投资者行为的影响:伊斯坦布尔证券交易所银行股面板 VAR 研究
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-02-04 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010014
Cumhur Ekinci, Oğuz Ersan
Assuming that investors can be foreign or local, do high-frequency trading (HFT) or not, and submit orders through a bank-owned or non-bank-owned broker, we associated trades to various investors. Then, building a panel vector autoregressive model, we analyzed the dynamic relation of these investors with returns and among each other before and during the COVID-19 market crash. Results show that investor groups have influence on each other. Their net purchases also interact with returns. Moreover, during the turmoil caused by the pandemic, except foreign investors not involved in HFT, the response of any investor group (retail/institutional, domestic investors doing HFT and those not doing HFT, and foreign investors doing HFT) significantly altered. This shows that the interrelation among investor groups is dynamic and sensitive to market conditions.
假定投资者可以是外国投资者,也可以是本国投资者;可以进行高频交易(HFT),也可以不进行高频交易;可以通过银行所有的经纪商,也可以通过非银行所有的经纪商提交订单,我们将交易与不同的投资者联系起来。然后,通过建立面板向量自回归模型,我们分析了这些投资者在 COVID-19 市场崩盘前和崩盘期间与收益率以及相互之间的动态关系。结果显示,投资者群体之间相互影响。他们的净购买量也与收益率相互影响。此外,在疫情引发的动荡期间,除了未参与 HFT 的外国投资者外,其他投资者群体(散户/机构投资者、参与 HFT 和未参与 HFT 的国内投资者以及参与 HFT 的外国投资者)的反应都发生了显著变化。这表明投资者群体之间的相互关系是动态的,对市场条件非常敏感。
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引用次数: 0
Board Structure, CEO Equity-Based Compensation, and Financial Performance: Evidence from MENA Countries 董事会结构、CEO 股权薪酬与财务业绩:中东和北非国家的证据
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs12010013
Abdullah A. Aljughaiman, Abdulateif A. Almulhim, Abdulaziz S. Al Naim
This paper investigates the association between board of director (BOD) structures and CEO equity-based compensation (long-term incentive) for commercial banks (conventional and Islamic banks) in MENA countries. Specifically, we take board size and board independence to measure the board structure. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of board structure on the association between CEO equity-based compensation and financial performance. Moreover, we compare conventional and Islamic banks in testing these relationships. Using a sample of 65 banks in MENA countries for the period between 2009 and 2020, we show a significant positive association between board size and CEO compensation. However, we find the same association between these variables for IBs, but the effect of board size on CEO compensation is less. We also show that board independence is negatively correlated with CEO compensation. Nevertheless, the relationship between board independence and CEO ownership is positive for IBs. For the moderating test, we find that effective board structure provides more incentives to the CEO, leading them to achieve higher financial performance. The Islamic bank’s business model (based on Shari’ah principles) contributes to the different influences of board structure on CEO compensation. Our results provide the insight that a strong and effective board is important for managing the executive’s compensation system. The findings of this study have implications for financial firms, policymakers, and regulators. Specifically, the study may help in understanding the benefits of different compensation structures relative to different types of financial firms.
本文研究了中东和北非国家商业银行(传统银行和伊斯兰银行)的董事会(BOD)结构与首席执行官股权薪酬(长期激励)之间的关联。具体而言,我们采用董事会规模和董事会独立性来衡量董事会结构。此外,我们还研究了董事会结构对首席执行官股权薪酬与财务业绩之间关系的影响。此外,我们还对传统银行和伊斯兰银行进行了比较,以检验这些关系。通过对 2009 年至 2020 年期间中东和北非国家 65 家银行的抽样调查,我们发现董事会规模与首席执行官薪酬之间存在显著的正相关关系。然而,我们发现伊斯兰银行的这些变量之间存在相同的关联,但董事会规模对首席执行官薪酬的影响较小。我们还发现,董事会独立性与 CEO 薪酬呈负相关。然而,对于国际银行而言,董事会独立性与首席执行官所有权之间的关系是正相关的。在调节性检验中,我们发现有效的董事会结构为首席执行官提供了更多的激励,从而使他们取得更高的财务业绩。伊斯兰银行的业务模式(基于伊斯兰教法原则)导致了董事会结构对首席执行官薪酬的不同影响。我们的研究结果使我们深刻认识到,一个强大而有效的董事会对于管理高管的薪酬体系非常重要。本研究的结果对金融公司、政策制定者和监管者都有借鉴意义。具体而言,本研究可能有助于理解不同薪酬结构对不同类型金融公司的益处。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Financial Studies
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