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Impact of Motivational Workshop on Financial Inclusion of Rural People in Bangladesh: Evidence from Randomized Controlled Trial 激励性研讨会对孟加拉国农村人口金融包容性的影响:来自随机对照试验的证据
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040151
Md Monzur Morshed, K. Maharjan
Despite the expansion of financial institutions and the proliferation of mobile financial services, reaching the unbanked and bringing them under formal financial services has become a policy concern in many developing countries. Due to the lack of financial accounts, unbanked people prefer informal, risky, and inconvenient mechanisms for receiving, sending, and transferring money. Previous studies rely much on common interventions like no account maintenance and opening fees, easy documentation processes, and money subsidies for opening financial accounts. This study aims to examine the impact of the motivational workshop on opening savings accounts through causality among the unbanked people in a setting where the respondents are unbanked despite having all the requirements and many institutional offers to open savings accounts. We encouraged the unbanked people through a one-hour-long motivational workshop to open savings accounts. Based on our cross-sectional data and randomized controlled trial experiment among the 505 unbanked rural people at Dhubil union under Sirajganj in Bangladesh, we have evidence that motivational workshop positively impacts opening accounts by 32.33 percent. However, the account opening rate differs in terms of respondent’s preference for financial institutions. Our study also finds that unbanked people have the highest preference for mobile financial services for opening accounts resulting in 15.33 percent. The result of this study has some policy implications for adopting effective strategies for universal financial access in many developing countries.
尽管金融机构在扩张,移动金融服务也在普及,但在许多发展中国家,帮助无银行账户者并将其纳入正规金融服务已成为一项政策关切。由于缺乏金融账户,没有银行账户的人更愿意选择非正规、有风险和不方便的机制来收款、汇款和转账。以往的研究主要依赖于常见的干预措施,如免收账户维护费和开户费、简便的文件编制程序以及为开设金融账户提供资金补贴等。本研究旨在通过因果关系研究激励性工作坊对无银行账户者开设储蓄账户的影响。我们通过一个小时的激励研讨会鼓励无银行账户者开设储蓄账户。根据我们的横截面数据和随机对照试验,我们在孟加拉国 Sirajganj 下属 Dhubil 联盟的 505 名无银行账户的农村人口中发现,激励性研讨会对开户率产生了 32.33% 的积极影响。然而,受访者对金融机构的偏好不同,开户率也不同。我们的研究还发现,没有银行账户的人在开户时对移动金融服务的偏好最高,达到 15.33%。这项研究的结果对许多发展中国家采取有效战略普及金融服务具有一定的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Change Risks Disclosure: Do Business Strategy and Management Characteristics Matter? 气候变化风险披露:企业战略和管理特征重要吗?
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-14 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040150
Mahfod M. Aldoseri, Maged M. Albaz
This research aims to broaden the understanding of the determinants of climate change disclosure, where the study analyzes the impact of corporate business strategy and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) overconfidence on the level of climate change disclosure. The study followed a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative and qualitative techniques to comprehensively examine the relationships used by the content analysis method to analyze the annual reports of a sample of Saudi companies for the period from 2019 to 2022 to measure the level of disclosure of practices related to climate change. The results of the study show that the companies that tend to adopt the initiative strategy provide more information about climate change than the defending companies do, while the CEO’s overconfidence does not affect the level of climate change disclosure. The results of the study indicate that the nature of the strategic direction adopted by the company is more important in determining the motives for disclosing climate change information than the personal characteristics of management.
本研究旨在拓宽对气候变化信息披露决定因素的理解,研究分析了企业经营战略和首席执行官(CEO)过度自信对气候变化信息披露水平的影响。研究采用混合方法,结合定量和定性技术,全面考察了内容分析法所使用的关系,分析了2019年至2022年期间沙特公司的年度报告样本,以衡量气候变化相关实践的披露水平。研究结果表明,倾向于采取主动战略的公司比防御型公司提供了更多的气候变化信息,而首席执行官的过度自信并不影响气候变化信息的披露水平。研究结果表明,在决定披露气候变化信息的动机方面,公司所采取的战略方向的性质比管理层的个人特征更为重要。
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引用次数: 0
Unveiling the Dynamics of Financial Institutions and Markets in Shaping Economic Prosperity in MENA 揭示中东和北非地区金融机构和市场在塑造经济繁荣中的作用
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040148
Ali Shaddady
This research explored the relationship between financial development and economic growth in the MENA region from 1996 to 2022. Using panel data, it assessed whether financial institutions and financial markets had differing impacts on economic growth. Various statistical methods, including OLS, GMM, quantile, and U-tests, were employed to analyze this correlation. Our findings revealed a nonlinear relationship between financial development (institutions and markets) and economic growth, characterized by an inverted U-shaped curve. This relationship was influenced by the MENA region’s limited financial regulations and the “vanishing effect”. Financial institutions were found to have an insignificant impact on economic growth but played a role in constraining it. Conversely, financial markets significantly contributed to growth initially, but this effect diminished over time, eventually turning negative. Additionally, this research highlighted the positive influences of liquidity and exports on economic growth, while noting that the rule of law and political stability had adverse effects.
本研究探讨了 1996 年至 2022 年中东和北非地区金融发展与经济增长之间的关系。研究利用面板数据评估了金融机构和金融市场是否对经济增长产生不同影响。研究采用了多种统计方法,包括 OLS、GMM、量子检验和 U 检验来分析这种相关性。我们的研究结果表明,金融发展(机构和市场)与经济增长之间存在非线性关系,呈倒 U 型曲线。这种关系受到中东和北非地区有限的金融监管和 "消失效应 "的影响。研究发现,金融机构对经济增长的影响并不显著,但在制约经济增长方面发挥了作用。相反,金融市场最初对经济增长有很大的促进作用,但随着时间的推移,这种作用逐渐减弱,最终变成负作用。此外,这项研究还强调了流动性和出口对经济增长的积极影响,同时指出法治和政治稳定具有不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic Stability of Public Debt: Evidence from the Eurozone Countries 公共债务的动态稳定性:欧元区国家的证据
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040149
Epameinondas Katsikas, Nikiforos T. Laopodis, Konstantinos Spanos
This paper investigates the dynamic stability of public debt and its solvency condition in the face of crisis periods (1980–2021) in a sample of 11 euro-area countries. The focus is on the feedback loop between the dynamic stability of public debt and interest rates, discounted by economic growth, in conjunction with budget deficits during tranquil and turbulent periods. Using the GMM panel dynamic model, the results show that dynamic stability was the case before the global financial crisis (GFC), while from GFC to the pandemic, dynamic instability prevailed and persisted in the evolution of public debt. Furthermore, panel threshold estimates show that dynamic instability of debt starts to violate the solvency condition when the borrowing cost is above 3.29%, becomes even stronger when it is above 4.39%, and exerts even more pressure when the level of debt is greater than 91%. However, the debt sustainability condition reverses course when economic growth is higher than 3.4%. The main policy implication drawn from the results is that low interest rates can create a self-reinforcing loop of high debt, which itself is a serious matter for public authorities when designing economic policies.
本文以 11 个欧元区国家为样本,研究了危机时期(1980-2021 年)公共债务的动态稳定性及其偿付能力状况。重点研究了在平静和动荡时期,公共债务的动态稳定性与利率之间的反馈循环,以及经济增长与预算赤字之间的折现。通过使用 GMM 面板动态模型,结果表明,在全球金融危机(GFC)之前,动态稳定性是存在的,而从全球金融危机到大流行病,动态不稳定性占主导地位,并在公共债务的演变过程中持续存在。此外,面板阈值估计结果表明,当借贷成本高于 3.29% 时,债务的动态不稳定性开始违反偿付能力条件;当借贷成本高于 4.39% 时,债务的动态不稳定性变得更强;当债务水平高于 91% 时,债务的动态不稳定性会产生更大的压力。然而,当经济增长率高于 3.4% 时,债务可持续性条件就会发生逆转。从研究结果中得出的主要政策含义是,低利率会造成高债务的自我强化循环,这本身就是公共当局在制定经济政策时需要认真对待的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Do MD&A Risk Disclosures Reduce Stock Price Crash Risk? Evidence from China MD&A 风险披露能降低股价暴跌风险吗?来自中国的证据
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040147
Fei Su, Lili Zhai, Jianmei Liu
This study examines whether and how risk disclosures in Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) affected the stock price crash risk of China’s publicly listed firms over the period of 2017–2021. The empirical results show that risk disclosures within the MD&A section are significantly and negatively associated with the future stock price crash risk, even after controlling for a broad set of well-known factors of crash risk. Additional tests revealed that the impact of MD&A risk disclosures on the stock price crash risk is accentuated when the MD&A disclosure contains more incremental information. The negative association between MD&A risk disclosures and stock price crash risk is also more pronounced for firms with poorer information environments, for firms with weaker external monitoring, and for firms with more investor attention. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of the stock price crash risk, controlling for firm-fixed effects and endogeneity issues, and excluding certain samples. The results indicate that MD&A risk disclosures could help alleviate information asymmetry and mitigate stock price crash risk.
本研究探讨了2017-2021年间,管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)中的风险披露是否以及如何影响中国上市公司的股价暴跌风险。实证结果表明,即使在控制了一系列众所周知的股价暴跌风险因素后,管理层讨论与分析部分的风险披露仍与未来股价暴跌风险显著负相关。其他检验结果表明,当 MD&A 披露包含更多增量信息时,MD&A 风险披露对股价崩盘风险的影响会更加明显。对于信息环境较差的公司、外部监控较弱的公司以及投资者关注度较高的公司,MD&A 风险披露与股价崩盘风险之间的负相关也更为明显。我们的研究结果对股价暴跌风险的其他衡量标准、公司固定效应和内生性问题的控制以及排除某些样本都是稳健的。结果表明,MD&A 风险披露有助于缓解信息不对称,降低股价暴跌风险。
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引用次数: 0
Research on Pricing Methods of Convertible Bonds Based on Deep Learning GAN Models 基于深度学习 GAN 模型的可转换债券定价方法研究
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040145
Gui Ren, Tao Meng
This paper proposes two data-driven models (including LSTM pricing model, WGAN pricing model) and an improved model of LSM based on GAN to analyze the pricing of convertible bonds. In addition, the LSM model with higher precision in traditional pricing model is selected for comparative study with other pricing models. It is found that the traditional LSM pricing model has a large error in the first-day pricing, and the pricing function needs to be further improved. Among the four pricing models, LSTM pricing model and WGAN pricing model have the best pricing effect. The WGAN pricing model is better than the LSTM pricing model (0.21%), and the LSM improved model (1.17%) is better than the traditional LSM model (2.26%). Applying the generative deep learning model GAN to the pricing of convertible bonds can circumvent the harsh preconditions of assumptions, and significantly improve the pricing effect of the traditional model. The scope of application of each model is different. Therefore, this paper proves the feasibility of the GAN model applied to the pricing of convertible bonds, and enriches the pricing function of derivatives in the financial field.
本文提出了两个数据驱动模型(包括 LSTM 定价模型、WGAN 定价模型)和一个基于 GAN 的改进 LSM 模型,用于分析可转换债券的定价。此外,还选择了传统定价模型中精度较高的 LSM 模型与其他定价模型进行比较研究。研究发现,传统的 LSM 定价模型在首日定价时误差较大,定价功能有待进一步完善。在四种定价模型中,LSTM 定价模型和 WGAN 定价模型的定价效果最好。WGAN定价模型优于LSTM定价模型(0.21%),LSM改进模型(1.17%)优于传统LSM模型(2.26%)。将生成式深度学习模型GAN应用于可转债定价,可以规避苛刻的前提假设条件,显著提高传统模型的定价效果。每种模型的适用范围不同。因此,本文证明了GAN模型应用于可转债定价的可行性,丰富了金融领域衍生品的定价功能。
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引用次数: 0
A Component Expected Shortfall Approach to Systemic Risk: An Application in the South African Financial Industry 系统性风险的成分预期缺口法:在南非金融业中的应用
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-11 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040146
Mathias Mandla Manguzvane, Sibusiso Blessing Ngobese
The accelerated growth and interconnectedness of financial institutions and movement towards products and activities outside the regulatory purview have been met with huge concerns. South Africa is one of the emerging economies that this conundrum has beset. Any potential instability in the financial sector likely poses insurmountable consequences and unprecedented government intervention, especially given that the country currently has no deposit insurance scheme. Although it is easy to justify the channels through which banks contribute to destabilising financial markets, it remains a controversial issue for insurers and other non-banking institutions. This study aims to empirically quantify the contribution of banks and insurers to aggregate the systemic risk of their respective industries by employing the component expected shortfall (CES). The CES is a robust quantitative systemic risk measure that allows for a comprehensive assessment of systemic risk by considering the contributions of individual financial components. Our findings demonstrate that the rankings from the CES framework are closely aligned with the regulatory D-SIB surcharges of the banking entities included in the study. The close alignment of both approaches is primarily due to the consideration of the size of an institution, amongst other factors.
金融机构的加速发展和相互联系,以及向监管范围之外的产品和活动发展,引起了人们的极大关注。南非是被这一难题困扰的新兴经济体之一。金融部门任何潜在的不稳定都可能带来难以克服的后果和前所未有的政府干预,特别是考虑到南非目前还没有存款保险计划。虽然很容易证明银行通过哪些渠道造成金融市场不稳定,但对于保险公司和其他非银行机构来说,这仍然是一个有争议的问题。本研究旨在通过使用预期缺口成分(CES),以实证方法量化银行和保险公司对各自行业系统性风险的贡献。CES 是一种稳健的定量系统性风险度量方法,可通过考虑单个金融成分的贡献来全面评估系统性风险。我们的研究结果表明,CES 框架的排名与研究中银行实体的 D-SIB 监管附加费密切相关。这两种方法之所以紧密一致,主要是因为考虑到了机构规模等因素。
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引用次数: 0
Factor Sufficiency in Asset Pricing: An Application for the Brazilian Market 资产定价中的要素充足性:巴西市场的应用
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040144
Rafaela Dezidério dos Santos Rocha, Márcio Laurini
The multifactor asset pricing model derived from the Fama–French approach is extensively used in asset risk premium estimation procedures. Even including a considerable number of factors, it is still possible that omitted factors affect the estimation of this model. In this work, we compare estimators robust to the presence of omitted factors in estimating the risk premium in the Brazilian market. Initially, we analyze the panel of asset returns using the mean group and common correlated effect estimators to detect the presence of omitted factors. We then compare the results with those obtained by a estimator robust to omitted variables, which uses a principal components approach to correct the estimation in the case of the omission of latent factors. We conclude that there is evidence of omitted factors, and the best predictor for the expect returns is the common correlated effects estimator.
由法玛-弗伦奇方法衍生的多因素资产定价模型在资产风险溢价估算程序中被广泛使用。即使包含相当多的因素,遗漏因素仍有可能影响该模型的估算。在这项工作中,我们比较了在估算巴西市场风险溢价时对遗漏因素存在的稳健估算器。首先,我们使用均值组和共同相关效应估计器对资产收益面板进行分析,以检测是否存在遗漏因素。然后,我们将结果与遗漏变量稳健估算器得出的结果进行比较,后者使用主成分方法在遗漏潜在因素的情况下修正估算结果。我们的结论是,有证据表明存在遗漏因素,而对预期收益的最佳预测是共同相关效应估计法。
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引用次数: 0
Causal Relationships between Oil Prices and Key Macroeconomic Variables in India 印度油价与主要宏观经济变量的因果关系
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040143
Kamal P. Upadhyaya, Raja Nag, Franklin G. Mixon
India is among the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world. To continue its growth, energy is and will continue to be one of its most important considerations. With a population of over one billion, India is the third largest consumer of petroleum on the globe. To maintain this ranking, India imports a large percentage of its total oil consumption. Given India’s current position as a large importer of oil, how does oil price volatility affect the Indian economy? This paper examines the effect of oil price volatility on inflation, economic growth, and the stock market in India. Statistical tests suggest that the overall price level, the real effective exchange rate, and oil prices are negatively related to aggregate output in the long run. Granger causality test results derived from a vector error correction model support bidirectional causality between oil prices and aggregate output, indicating that a change in oil prices also affects aggregate output in the short run.
印度是世界上最大、增长最快的经济体之一。为了继续增长,能源是并将继续是其最重要的考虑因素之一。印度人口超过10亿,是全球第三大石油消费国。为了保持这一排名,印度进口石油占其石油消费总量的很大比例。鉴于印度目前是石油进口大国,油价波动对印度经济有何影响?本文考察了印度石油价格波动对通货膨胀、经济增长和股票市场的影响。统计检验表明,总体价格水平、实际有效汇率和石油价格与长期总产出呈负相关。基于向量误差修正模型的格兰杰因果检验结果支持油价与总产出之间的双向因果关系,表明油价的变化在短期内也会影响总产出。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of Transparency and Disclosures on the Dividend Distribution Decisions in the Firms: Do Profitability and Efficiency of Firms Matter? 透明度和信息披露对企业股利分配决策的影响:公司的盈利能力和效率重要吗?
IF 2.3 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.3390/ijfs11040142
Shailesh Rastogi, Geetanjali Pinto, Amit Kumar Pathak, Satyendra Pratap Singh, Arpita Sharma, Souvik Banerjee, Jagjeevan Kanoujiya, Pracheta Tejasmayee
The purpose of this study is to determine if the impact of transparency and disclosure (TD) levels on shareholders’ current income (dividends) is moderated by technical efficiency (te) and profitability. The study employs econometrics on panel data from 78 BSE-listed enterprises across the 2016–2020 sample period. This conclusion suggests that when TD grows, dividends tend to drop initially, but above a certain threshold level, growing TD levels lead to increased payouts. Furthermore, dividends are adversely associated with the moderating variable “te” in terms of both constant and variable return to scale. On the other hand, moderation by profitability was shown to have a substantially favourable effect on dividends. According to this study, a company’s dividend policy is influenced by its TD levels, which are controlled by its efficiency and profitability. Developing a TD index provides more information on the efficacy of the corporate governance (CG) system. The study’s distinctiveness lies in examining the relationships between transparency, disclosures, and these aspects as they relate to profitability, efficiency, and dividend distribution choices to ascertain whether the companies’ operating effectiveness and financial success matter in this circumstance. The study’s practical and policy implications relate to societal repercussions, which include encouraging more openness and responsibility in business practices, thereby increasing confidence and accountability in decisions about dividend distribution, regardless of efficiency and profitability. The study’s originality is in examining how profitability, efficiency, and dividend distribution decisions relate to transparency and disclosures to determine if companies’ operating efficiency and financial success matter in this situation.
本研究旨在确定透明度和信息披露(TD)水平对股东当期收入(分红)的影响是否受技术效率(te)和盈利能力的调节。研究采用计量经济学方法,对 2016-2020 年样本期内 78 家上交所上市企业的面板数据进行了分析。这一结论表明,当 TD 增长时,股息在初期往往会下降,但超过一定临界水平后,TD 水平的增长会导致派息增加。此外,从不变规模回报率和可变规模回报率来看,股利与调节变量 "te "存在不利关联。另一方面,盈利能力的调节作用则对股利产生了极大的有利影响。根据这项研究,一家公司的股利政策受其 TD 水平的影响,而 TD 水平又受其效率和盈利能力的控制。制定 TD 指数可提供更多有关公司治理(CG)系统有效性的信息。本研究的独特之处在于研究了透明度、信息披露以及这些方面与盈利能力、效率和股利分配选择之间的关系,以确定在这种情况下,公司的经营效率和财务成功是否重要。本研究的实际意义和政策影响与社会反响有关,包括鼓励企业在经营实践中更加开放和负责,从而增强对股利分配决策的信心和责任感,而不论效率和盈利能力如何。本研究的独创性在于研究盈利能力、效率和股利分配决策与透明度和信息披露之间的关系,以确定公司的运营效率和财务成功在这种情况下是否重要。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Financial Studies
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